Category

Technical Analysis

Aug 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Summer Extension and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Summer Extension

SPX Summer Extension

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our summer risk cycle peak due in early August, shifted right after the SPX clear 4,200 and NDX above trendline resistance. A fresh cycle peak target lies at SPX 4,350.
  • RTY perform over the SPX makes it a top long on the breakout above 1,930 with fresh support at 1,950 and rally PT at 2,050 with risk to 2,080. 
  • SPX 4,170 pivot support is in focus with a call to buy a dip near 4,220 for that final push higher in in August.

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Aug 13
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

U.S. Dollar Topping?; Bullish Reversals Continue; Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals, Financials

By Joe Jasper

  • This is now the third Int’l Compass/third week in a row where we are discussing an increasing number of country indexes experiencing bullish 3.5-9-month downtrend reversals.
  • Importantly, all of the previously mentioned indexes are holding above their breakout levels (i.e., there has yet to be any failed breakouts).
  • Now, the U.S. dollar (DXY) is starting to show early signs of topping. We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process.

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Aug 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSI Index: Longfor and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI Index: Longfor, Alibaba, Ping An, and Tencent

HSI Index: Longfor, Alibaba, Ping An, and Tencent

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The carnage in China and some Hong Kong real estate and property management companies and financials went largely unnoticed.
  • The five-day decline in Longfor was 18%, Country Garden by 15.50%, Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index fell 6.75%, and HSI Properties Index fell 2.75%.
  • It has had zero impact on the rest of the world (ROW) markets.

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Aug 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Tencent New Lows in Sight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent New Lows in Sight
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Key Resistance Levels; Pause Likely; Buying Biotech

Tencent New Lows in Sight

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Tencent short from 390 is rewarding and reaching for new chart lows now that the 310 pivot support has given way and leading the likes of BABA.
  • MACD target support is the key input to align with a terminal wave 5 low to set up the macro long entry in September.
  • Undershoot risk to lower channel support with a low due in September and rally hurdles toward year end at 370/390. 420 remains the forward macro barrier to challenge/clear.

S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 Testing Key Resistance Levels; Pause Likely; Buying Biotech

By Joe Jasper

  • The weight of the evidence suggests that the lows for this bear market have likely already been established, but that does not mean it will be smooth sailing from here.
  • The SPX and NDX are both testing important resistance levels (4165-4180 and the YTD downtrend, respectively), making this a logical spot for the indexes to stall and potentially pull back.
  • Ultimately, we would expect to see support near their 50-day MAs as the market goes through a bottoming process. We remain neutral overall.

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Aug 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: WTI 85 Rally Pivot Will Shift the Inflation Narrative and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • WTI 85 Rally Pivot Will Shift the Inflation Narrative

WTI 85 Rally Pivot Will Shift the Inflation Narrative

By Thomas Schroeder

  • WTI bear call from 116 is meeting our 89/85 low zone with a key turn target near 85 that will spur a rally and shift inflation expectations.
  • The touted break down from triangulation is setting up a key low. We did reduce our short at 89 with a plan to close the remaining tranche on weakness.
  • RSI is not confirming new price lows for a case of bull divergence. A macro low is setting up if the 85 support holds and induces a bull turn.

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Aug 06
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

Bullish Reversals Proliferate; Stick With Growth; Buy Ideas in Tech, Discretionary, & Industrials

By Joe Jasper

  • Last week we noted that the bullish reversals had begun, with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), STOXX Europe 50, and SPX the first few to reverse topside their 4-month downtrends.
  • As we discuss below, bullish reversals are proliferating globally, something that continues to support our belief that global equities are bottoming.
  • Global growth Sectors continue to gain momentum and have emerged as leadership — overweight growth. Sectors covered today include Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials — add exposure

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Aug 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Xiaomi and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Xiaomi, China Unicom, and Bank Of China

Xiaomi, China Unicom, and Bank Of China

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The Hong Kong Indices have been much weaker than Taiwan & China due to liquidity and open capital account.
  • It is a canary for global indices and should be analyzed accordingly.
  • There is no change in views of real estate and technology sector stocks mentioned in previous updates on Hang Seng constituents.

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Aug 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Fresh Shorts in Our Early August Peak Risk Window and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Fresh Shorts in Our Early August Peak Risk Window
  • S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

Fresh Shorts in Our Early August Peak Risk Window

By Thomas Schroeder

  • In addition to shorting NDX at 13,000+, we saw key reversals in Japan and Taiwan after hitting short entry levels. Germany short is in focus as Europe tops.
  • Japan and Taiwan registered key reversals with NKY 27k and Taiwan 14,600 pivots to break.
  • Early August peak in the risk cycle ahead of a more brutal September period.

S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

By Joe Jasper

  • In last week’s Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
  • We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
  • The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom’s in.

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Aug 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSI Leads Bear Move in Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI Leads Bear Move in Asia

HSI Leads Bear Move in Asia

By Thomas Schroeder

  • HSI remains a top short bet from the C wave dual top at 22,500, the break below wedge support and now the bear triangulation support breach targets new lows.
  • A50 weakness is weighing on HK. HSI clear break down will lead the upcoming risk off cycle in Asia.
  • We like adding to a short on upticks with near resistance at 20,500. 19,700 is the pivot support to break below that will open the way to 18,200.

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Aug 01
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Europe and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys
  • XME and XLE Longs Meeting Targets

Europe, MSCI ACWI Bullish Downtrend Reversals as Japan Tests Resistance; Tech, Health Care Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • In last week’s Int’l Compass (July 21) we discussed positive signals that suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
  • But we also noted that various downtrends remained firmly intact, and that we needed to see indexes reverse their downtrends in order to get more constructive at the index level.
  • It appears the bullish reversals have begun, as the SPX, MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), and STOXX 600 are the first three major indexes to reverse topside their 4-month and YTD downtrends.

XME and XLE Longs Meeting Targets

By Thomas Schroeder

  • XME and XLE long bets outlined on July 18 are meeting targets to unwind/reverse with XME displaying intermediate potential out of a bull wedge formation.
  • Weak buy volumes on this rise fit with it being corrective in nature (vulnerable bounce), calling for a fresh bear test into September.
  • XME bull wedge brewing and 40 macro support stand out as a macro bull set up from September into year-end.

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