Category

Technical Analysis

Sep 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities, WTI Crude Oil Topping?; Buying Uranium, Ag Equipment

S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities, WTI Crude Oil Topping?; Buying Uranium, Ag Equipment

By Joe Jasper

  • Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on the S&P 500, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
  • We see a bounce as possible at these levels, but breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows — or worse.
  • WTI crude oil is breaking below the critical $85 support level, confirming a major top in place. The Bloomberg commodity index needs to break $32.50 to confirm a major top.

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Sep 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Dutch TTF Gas and Impact on WTI and DAX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Dutch TTF Gas and Impact on WTI and DAX

Dutch TTF Gas and Impact on WTI and DAX

By Thomas Schroeder

  • TTF Dutch gas futures are set to rally off of trendline and price support that will ripple into oil and our DAX short theme.
  • Oil saw a lift off the 86 support base on the back of TTF Gas popping higher and prospects of a hard European winter.  
  • DAX pressure building to break the 12,400/500 pivot support that would in turn crack noted MACD support. Short theme working. New low target remains at 11,500.

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Sep 04
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: August Route Leads September Pain and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • August Route Leads September Pain

August Route Leads September Pain

By Thomas Schroeder

  • The impulsive decline in growth sectors (NDX) warns of more pain in September. Sell resistance lies at 12,500/800 below the 13k risk pivot. NDX early August relative peak led.
  • SPX macro sell call on August 19 worked well with a short NDX focus (short group includes DAX, HSI, Taiwan and recently Korea).
  • August was touted as the month to sell longs establish in June/July and to raise short bets for a bearish September as pundits turned bullish in mid-August, we were selling.

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Sep 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Gold Bull/Bear Line and Oil Base Mend and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Gold Bull/Bear Line and Oil Base Mend
  • Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

Gold Bull/Bear Line and Oil Base Mend

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Gold short met 1,730 PT to close and now kissing key support at 1,700 as the long pivot level. WTI’s nasty give back needs basing at the key 85/86 support.
  • Gold 1,700 and WTI 85 are make or break bull/bear lines. Gold RSI bull divergence stands out as the driver amid risk aversion and a safe have bid in bonds.
  • WTI RSI uber bull divergence shows good energy to retake 93 but is it enough to offset demand destruction/Sept risk. Reserve levels are low and support the bull case.

Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to see global equities as being in pullback mode, with the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) already testing important support in the $86-87 range, highlighted last week.
  • A bounce here would be ideal for the bullish case, but we could easily see a test of the YTD lows near $81.50 if $86 fails to hold.
  • Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei225/TOPIX Small remain bullish, as does India’s SENSEX — add exposure. Seeing some failed breakouts in Europe, notably the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600; a concerning development.

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Sep 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Alibaba and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba, Longfor Group, Country Garden, New World Development

Alibaba, Longfor Group, Country Garden, New World Development

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Two big headlines drove the short squeeze, helped by the record level of short selling as a percentage of total volume in recent months.
  • The recovery remains a low volume rally and short turnover as share continues to be high.
  • Most of the short selling remains in Index ETF and very large-cap stocks.

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Aug 31
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets
  • Headwinds Persist, Including Rising DXY, 10-Yr Treasury Yield, & Commodities; Buying Staples, Solar

Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets

By Joe Jasper

  • We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
  • Specifically, the EEM-US has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If MSCI EM has indeed bottomed, we want to be buying the leaders; that is where this report comes in.
  • Specific themes include attractive opportunities in India and Thailand, and also many in Taiwan and South Korea. Attractive Sectors include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials.

Headwinds Persist, Including Rising DXY, 10-Yr Treasury Yield, & Commodities; Buying Staples, Solar

By Joe Jasper

  • In last week’s Compass (Aug. 23) we discussed the increasing odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.
  • This was due to 5-week uptrend breaks on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000, the Fed tightening, and with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and commodities (DJP) inflecting higher.
  • The market remains in pullback mode; the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000 are all approaching 50-day MA support, the first big area of interest on this pullback.

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Aug 29
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Top Shorts in Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Top Shorts in Asia

Top Shorts in Asia

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Top shorts in Asia are HK, Tiawan and recently turned short Korea. US bear pressure will bleed into Asia today. India turned short at 18,000 for a test on 17k.
  • Majority of Asia saw deteriorating buy volume on the rise from July, defining a bear market bounce and warning of trouble in September. NDX short from 13,900/700.
  • NDX breakdown a key input for Asia’s tech themed decline. Staying below 13,000 will add to bear pressure in September.

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Aug 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: NDX Short Conviction and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • NDX Short Conviction

NDX Short Conviction

By Thomas Schroeder

  • NDX was our top US short bet from 13,750/500.  NDX below 13,000 is a risk off pivot for the global cycle. Conviction call to build NDX short on strength.
  • NDX 13k will now act as resistance with 12,500 and 12,100 downside targets. SPX reaction rise due Monday with resistance at 4,130/70.
  • Risk cycle peak rolled a bit early (before late August) sold weaker markets early (NDX, DAX, Taiwan, HK, Korea).

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Aug 26
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSI Properties and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI Properties, Link RIET, HSI Financials, China Merchants Bank, and ICBC

HSI Properties, Link RIET, HSI Financials, China Merchants Bank, and ICBC

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • At the beginning of the week, I was determined to have this post with a more bullish tone. Maybe it is a contrarian indicator.
  • But as of yesterday’s market, I see that my efforts were rather over-optimistic.
  • The note is what is in front of me rather than speculating we are at the change in trend.

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Aug 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: BTC Bear Break a Vital Risk Gauge and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • BTC Bear Break a Vital Risk Gauge

BTC Bear Break a Vital Risk Gauge

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Bitcoin is a key risk gauge and counter measure that aligns with and leading a bearish September equity cycle.
  • Link BTC support break with the NDX break below 13,300 and 13,000 bigger pivot level and WTI’s more bullish structure that will shift the inflation narrative.
  • BTC 23k fresh sell resistance with a target of 15k. Synergy with building equity shorts into a late August bounce.

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