Category

Technical Analysis

Sep 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Alibaba and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba, Longfor Group, Country Garden, New World Development

Alibaba, Longfor Group, Country Garden, New World Development

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Two big headlines drove the short squeeze, helped by the record level of short selling as a percentage of total volume in recent months.
  • The recovery remains a low volume rally and short turnover as share continues to be high.
  • Most of the short selling remains in Index ETF and very large-cap stocks.

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Aug 31
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets
  • Headwinds Persist, Including Rising DXY, 10-Yr Treasury Yield, & Commodities; Buying Staples, Solar

Finding Leadership Within Emerging Markets

By Joe Jasper

  • We are starting to see early signs of a potential bottom on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
  • Specifically, the EEM-US has reversed topside its 6-month downtrend. If MSCI EM has indeed bottomed, we want to be buying the leaders; that is where this report comes in.
  • Specific themes include attractive opportunities in India and Thailand, and also many in Taiwan and South Korea. Attractive Sectors include Energy, Financials, Materials, and Industrials.

Headwinds Persist, Including Rising DXY, 10-Yr Treasury Yield, & Commodities; Buying Staples, Solar

By Joe Jasper

  • In last week’s Compass (Aug. 23) we discussed the increasing odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.
  • This was due to 5-week uptrend breaks on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000, the Fed tightening, and with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and commodities (DJP) inflecting higher.
  • The market remains in pullback mode; the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000 are all approaching 50-day MA support, the first big area of interest on this pullback.

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Aug 29
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Top Shorts in Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Top Shorts in Asia

Top Shorts in Asia

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Top shorts in Asia are HK, Tiawan and recently turned short Korea. US bear pressure will bleed into Asia today. India turned short at 18,000 for a test on 17k.
  • Majority of Asia saw deteriorating buy volume on the rise from July, defining a bear market bounce and warning of trouble in September. NDX short from 13,900/700.
  • NDX breakdown a key input for Asia’s tech themed decline. Staying below 13,000 will add to bear pressure in September.

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Aug 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: NDX Short Conviction and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • NDX Short Conviction

NDX Short Conviction

By Thomas Schroeder

  • NDX was our top US short bet from 13,750/500.  NDX below 13,000 is a risk off pivot for the global cycle. Conviction call to build NDX short on strength.
  • NDX 13k will now act as resistance with 12,500 and 12,100 downside targets. SPX reaction rise due Monday with resistance at 4,130/70.
  • Risk cycle peak rolled a bit early (before late August) sold weaker markets early (NDX, DAX, Taiwan, HK, Korea).

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Aug 26
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSI Properties and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI Properties, Link RIET, HSI Financials, China Merchants Bank, and ICBC

HSI Properties, Link RIET, HSI Financials, China Merchants Bank, and ICBC

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • At the beginning of the week, I was determined to have this post with a more bullish tone. Maybe it is a contrarian indicator.
  • But as of yesterday’s market, I see that my efforts were rather over-optimistic.
  • The note is what is in front of me rather than speculating we are at the change in trend.

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Aug 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: BTC Bear Break a Vital Risk Gauge and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • BTC Bear Break a Vital Risk Gauge

BTC Bear Break a Vital Risk Gauge

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Bitcoin is a key risk gauge and counter measure that aligns with and leading a bearish September equity cycle.
  • Link BTC support break with the NDX break below 13,300 and 13,000 bigger pivot level and WTI’s more bullish structure that will shift the inflation narrative.
  • BTC 23k fresh sell resistance with a target of 15k. Synergy with building equity shorts into a late August bounce.

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Aug 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Softbank Short Resistance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Softbank Short Resistance
  • USD Rally Resumption

Softbank Short Resistance

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Softbank (9982 JP) is knocking on 6,000 compelling resistance that sets up a short trade just under this barrier. 5,300 lower pattern support is the level to test/break.
  • RSI is also building energy for a powerful breakout from the triangle/flat range with a bear spin.
  • 6,000 is a stiff barrier and if it caps will set in motion a higher degree decline to retest the 4,200-macro support line.

USD Rally Resumption

By Thomas Schroeder

  • DXY 105 was the level to hold and 106.50 the resistance to clear for a dollar green light from our 105.50 buy in point with a near target of 110.50.
  • Euro and INR have been long USD picks and more recently bought back the USD/THB and NZD (short). USD/CNH has cleared breakout resistance.
  • Conviction: High. USD macro bull to (109.50 met) 110.50 and 111.25. 119 attracts in 2023.  USD vs EM FX showing signs of a big risk move. Watch USD/MYR above 4.50.

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Aug 20
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

Japan Among the Latest to Break Out; Buy Ideas in Growth/Cyclicals and Consumer Staples

By Joe Jasper

  • The theme we have seen over the past four weeks is an increasing number of indexes reversing 4-10-month downtrends and/or breaking above important resistance levels, with no failed breakouts.
  • We continue to believe that global equities are going through a bottoming process, but the real test will come during the eventual pullback, which we believe we are now experiencing.
  • We are watching to see whether these breakout levels and important moving averages (e.g., 50-day MAs) will hold.

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Aug 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Nifty Top Zone for a Pullback and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Nifty Top Zone for a Pullback
  • HSI Index, HSITECH Index, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and China Unicom

Nifty Top Zone for a Pullback

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Nifty’s near linear rise much like drives in January and March that turned on a dime. Once a top was in, the Nifty turned down hard.
  • RSIs are extremely overbought and have formed rising wedges that show risk of a sharp turn lower as in previous cycles.
  • Nifty banks kissed the 39,500-sell resistance and showing relative lead weakness versus the Nifty.

HSI Index, HSITECH Index, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and China Unicom

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The market pivoted late last week from there will be no PBOC rates cut to there being much more Monetary Policy support needed.
  • The pivot was the sharp slowdown in Aggregate Financing, Industrial Production, Real estate, and Retail Sales. All it took was a 10-bps cut in one-year MLF.
  • Meanwhile, Hong Kong saw HIBOR continue to rise even with currency strength.

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Aug 18
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Meituan Bear Pressure Accelerating and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Meituan Bear Pressure Accelerating

Meituan Bear Pressure Accelerating

By Thomas Schroeder

  • June 27 call to sell strength in line and showing increasing downside pressure below the 185 support (now resistance).
  • Dual top at 210 induced a turn well under trendline resistance. Break of bear wedge support confirmed the macro sell signal.
  • Below 166 targets 140 where a stall in the decline/bounce is due (resistance near 160-66) but expected to give way for a test on the 110 low zone.

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