Category

Technical Analysis

Nov 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Tesla Motors Buy Level for Drive to 255 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Tesla Motors Buy Level for Drive to 255
  • Bear Market Rally Continues; Financials/XLF Reversing YTD Downtrend; Small-Caps at 11-Month RS Highs

Tesla Motors Buy Level for Drive to 255

By Thomas Schroeder

  • TSLA (US) shows near term upside that is expected to fade and set up a better entry level below 200 with stiff resistance near the 255 target.
  • Macro descending wedge is the dominant driver into 2023 with lower wedge support at 180/160 and upper pattern resistance at 330 currently and will shift lower with time translation.
  • Buy volumes on this bounce have tapered off, suggesting this rise is corrective in nature and why our buy target revolves around a new low.

Bear Market Rally Continues; Financials/XLF Reversing YTD Downtrend; Small-Caps at 11-Month RS Highs

By Joe Jasper

  • The market remains in bear market rally mode, and our price target remains the 200-day MAs on the SPX and Russell 2000, as discussed in last week’s Compass (Oct. 25).
  • Longer-Term, this is still a bear market until the S&P 500 and IWM can break above their respective YTD downtrends/200-day MAs, and markets could easily test their lows again.
  • With that said, there are signs that suggest breakouts above YTD downtrends/200-day MAs could be coming. Catalysts include the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, followed by midterm elections on Nov. 8.

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Oct 31
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX 3 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX 3,500 Transitioning Higher

SPX 3,500 Transitioning Higher

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our bullish risk call at SPX 3,500 has panned out nicely while using our short group to sell squeeze rallies. Increasing evidence sides with a more bullish November for risk.
  • USD and the US 10yr yield face pivot support with a tactical bounce bias. Conviction is to sell the USD and Yield into strength.
  • RTY long from 1,650 has been the star performer while shorting the NDX on squeeze spiked has worked fairly well. Update SPX, RTY and NDX buy and sell level outlined.

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Oct 29
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

Bear Market Rally in Progress as DXY, Global Sovereign 10-Yr Yields Fall; Buy Ideas Within Leaders

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to believe that a bearish intermediate-term outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrends remain intact on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
  • We would turn bullish only on reversals of those downtrends. With that said, a bear market rally has officially begun, something that we have discussed since our Sept.29 Int’l Compass
  • We expect to see rallies to their respective YTD downtrends (ACWX, EFA, etc.). We highlight buys that are likely to outperform on this bear market rally.

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Oct 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Expanding USD Top Signals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Expanding USD Top Signals

Expanding USD Top Signals

By Thomas Schroeder

  • USD splinters outlined at DXY 114 with select USD shorts in AUD, SGD, ZAR, BRL. Call to reduce USD longs with a buy level at 111, fade and 109.50.
  • US 10yr pivot support at 4% is the bull bear divide for risk and a bigger USD downturn. USD weakness telegraphing a yield decline and stronger Q4 risk cycle.
  • Trade USD uptick in some of the weaker Asian units with a plan to expand shorts for a bigger Q4 slide to DXY 105.

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Oct 26
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China/HSI Uptick Short Levels and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • China/HSI Uptick Short Levels
  • Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

China/HSI Uptick Short Levels

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Bear impulse in China/HK sets up a sell on a squeeze. Sell volumes ignited on the A50 12,400 support break. HSI has been our top short in Asia and rewarded.
  • We did trim our HSI short at the 15k target but still represents 10% of our book. RSI is oversold with short squeeze risk (then re cycle short).
  • Hong Kong likes to bottom on big impulsive downside moves so will be interesting how our price and timing models converge.

Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

By Joe Jasper

  • The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.
  • Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.
  • As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.

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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance

Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance

By Joe Jasper

  • Despite a few tumultuous trading days, the S&P 500 remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains above $163 — both important support levels moving forward.
  • We continue to see potential for a bear market rally (~+10% from the lows) as long as these support levels hold.
  • Bear market rallies would be confirmed by bullish reversals of the 2-month downtrends, or above 3810 on the SPX and above $174 on the IWM, and the latter happened today.

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Oct 17
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Mechanics of a Late October Cycle Low and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Mechanics of a Late October Cycle Low

Mechanics of a Late October Cycle Low

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Short basket call on Oct 4/5 and Oct 14. Mid October squeeze rally to recycle shorts unfolded/in line. October 23 and 30 cycle dates linked to a cycle low.
  • The key moving parts to form a cycle low center around a DXY peak, the US 10yr yield new high/top and long equity basket lows holding on an SPX low.
  • New yield and USD high to align with an SPX low with lead signals stemming from our long basket holding support zones (lead relative signal). Manage swings into late Oct.

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Oct 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Met 3 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Met 3,700 Sell Zone to Reduce Long Basket/Roll into Shorts

SPX Met 3,700 Sell Zone to Reduce Long Basket/Roll into Shorts

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Call was to buy our long group for a mid-October short covering rally. Lofty CPI means we retest lows (late October). Top today for dip, better sell territory next week.
  • NKY was our top long bet in our long basket (NKY, ASX, Euro Stoxx 50 and SPX) with a call to reduce with ideal sell levels due next week.
  • At SPX 3,700+ we are rolling back into our short group. Ideal low due in late October.

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Oct 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Fresh Assault on SPX 3 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Fresh Assault on SPX 3,630 Bull/Bear Line

Fresh Assault on SPX 3,630 Bull/Bear Line

By Thomas Schroeder

  • We recommended rolling back into our short group at SPX 3,800+ on October 5th. Friday’s NFP bear impulse does show energy to pressure the SPX 3,630/50 bull/bear line.
  • SPX chart shows downside follow through after downside impulses as does the oversold RSI reading (lacking any bull divergence). US yields and USD point north to provide bear fuel.
  • Below SPX 3,630 (after an uptick) does favor minor new lows in the US that is part of the bottom building process outlined for October.

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Oct 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX 3 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX 3,500 Is Where We Transition

SPX 3,500 Is Where We Transition

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX bearish to 3,500/30 below 3,650 with sell resistance at 3,650 (bounce bet failed at 3,740). Early October low followed by a short squeeze.
  • Meeting/Exceeding key downside targets in oversold (RSI’s due to bottom soon) Asia and Europe into an exhaustive down leg. 
  • October transition: We favor overlapping our long basket into early to mid-October new lows. NKY, ASX, RTY layered longs and USD sell is on deck (USD front run).

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