Category

Technical Analysis

Sep 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD/MYR Red Flag Above 4.50 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USD/MYR Red Flag Above 4.50
  • Watch RTY Trigger for NDX New Lows

USD/MYR Red Flag Above 4.50

By Thomas Schroeder

  • USD/MYR breakout above 4.50 targets 4.66 and 4.80 and will see a correlation bleed in Asia compared to a topping DXY zone at 111.25/50.
  • This USD/MYR red flag has the potential to see accelerated USD gains in Asia as risk aversion dominates trade into late September.
  • Asian FX and particularly SE Asian FX at risk. USD/THB targets 38 and the IDR is now vulnerable.

Watch RTY Trigger for NDX New Lows

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Call to re cycle shorts at targets on September 12/13 and buy the USD at DXY 108 is paying off. Use an uptick early this week to add to shorts.
  • NDX remains our top US short but an inflection below RTY 1,775 pivot support will increase downside conviction for a hard NDX bear press to 11,500 and 11,000.
  • SPX 3,750 pressure test expected, if below will increase odds of a new low. Monitor DXY 111.25/50 for an early warning dollar top.

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Sep 16
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Xinyi Solar and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Xinyi Solar, BYD, and Bank of China

Xinyi Solar, BYD, and Bank of China

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The main drivers for Hong Kong stock rallies are short covering, buybacks, and China government real estate support measures announcements.
  • Hang Seng Index and most of its constituents continue to read like bear porn. Without a meaningful reversal/impulse rally, it is hard to call for a reversal.
  • I hear and agree the case is so bad that it must be a buy signal. The sentiment is precious, BUT it needs a price action supporting the exhaustion thesis.

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Sep 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Sell Resistances Post Plunge and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Sell Resistances Post Plunge

Sell Resistances Post Plunge

By Thomas Schroeder

  • NDX, DAX, Asia short levels met ahead of the CPI print. Today’s insight focuses on near resistance points to sell into after the conviction bear turn and reiterates downside targets.
  • Game plan was to short strength Monday/Tuesday and used pivot support/trailing stops to unwind some long exposure.
  • Call to buy the USD on this pullback at DXY 108 worked well with a focus on Euro, ZAR, and weaker Asian FX.

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Sep 14
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks, Buying Manufacturing Names

Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks, Buying Manufacturing Names

By Joe Jasper

  • Key supports that we highlighted in last week’s Compass (Sept. 7) held strong, including 3900-3910 on the SPX, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
  • We got the bounce where bulls needed to hold, but these levels could be tested again following this morning’s hotter-than-expected CPI report.
  • As long as the aforementioned supports continue to hold, we continue to believe the lows are likely in for this bear market — something we noted throughout late-July and August.

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Sep 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD Top Zone to Lead Risk Turn and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USD Top Zone to Lead Risk Turn

USD Top Zone to Lead Risk Turn

By Thomas Schroeder

  • USD dip/rise into overshoot zone as the green back begins to feel out a topping zone. The dollar typically tops a few weeks ahead of and equity troughing cycle.
  • DXY met our 110.50-111 tactical top target where we reduced overdone USD longs and placed a short bet (AUD and SGD) for a dip/rally.
  • Expect USD splinters to appear in coming weeks as the DXY top near the 111.25 projection if we hold 107.50 now.

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Sep 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: US Fresh Sell Levels and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • US Fresh Sell Levels
  • Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

US Fresh Sell Levels

By Thomas Schroeder

  • US bounce in line off of SPX 3,900 support. Index trendline resistances will offer fresh sell points with NDX our top short pick in the US.
  • RTY was our long pick off of 1,775 support, to trade a bounce toward trendline and will then turn bearish again.
  • NDX 12,500 zone the fresh short area. DAX and weaker Asia still a high conviction short group.

Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

By Joe Jasper

  • We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.
  • This includes the S&P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) — add exposure.
  • While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.

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Sep 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities, WTI Crude Oil Topping?; Buying Uranium, Ag Equipment

S&P 500 Testing 3900 Support; Commodities, WTI Crude Oil Topping?; Buying Uranium, Ag Equipment

By Joe Jasper

  • Key supports are currently being tested at 3900-3910 on the S&P 500, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
  • We see a bounce as possible at these levels, but breaks below these levels would virtually guarantee a test of the YTD lows — or worse.
  • WTI crude oil is breaking below the critical $85 support level, confirming a major top in place. The Bloomberg commodity index needs to break $32.50 to confirm a major top.

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Sep 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Dutch TTF Gas and Impact on WTI and DAX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Dutch TTF Gas and Impact on WTI and DAX

Dutch TTF Gas and Impact on WTI and DAX

By Thomas Schroeder

  • TTF Dutch gas futures are set to rally off of trendline and price support that will ripple into oil and our DAX short theme.
  • Oil saw a lift off the 86 support base on the back of TTF Gas popping higher and prospects of a hard European winter.  
  • DAX pressure building to break the 12,400/500 pivot support that would in turn crack noted MACD support. Short theme working. New low target remains at 11,500.

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Sep 04
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: August Route Leads September Pain and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • August Route Leads September Pain

August Route Leads September Pain

By Thomas Schroeder

  • The impulsive decline in growth sectors (NDX) warns of more pain in September. Sell resistance lies at 12,500/800 below the 13k risk pivot. NDX early August relative peak led.
  • SPX macro sell call on August 19 worked well with a short NDX focus (short group includes DAX, HSI, Taiwan and recently Korea).
  • August was touted as the month to sell longs establish in June/July and to raise short bets for a bearish September as pundits turned bullish in mid-August, we were selling.

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Sep 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Gold Bull/Bear Line and Oil Base Mend and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Gold Bull/Bear Line and Oil Base Mend
  • Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

Gold Bull/Bear Line and Oil Base Mend

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Gold short met 1,730 PT to close and now kissing key support at 1,700 as the long pivot level. WTI’s nasty give back needs basing at the key 85/86 support.
  • Gold 1,700 and WTI 85 are make or break bull/bear lines. Gold RSI bull divergence stands out as the driver amid risk aversion and a safe have bid in bonds.
  • WTI RSI uber bull divergence shows good energy to retake 93 but is it enough to offset demand destruction/Sept risk. Reserve levels are low and support the bull case.

Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to see global equities as being in pullback mode, with the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) already testing important support in the $86-87 range, highlighted last week.
  • A bounce here would be ideal for the bullish case, but we could easily see a test of the YTD lows near $81.50 if $86 fails to hold.
  • Japan’s TOPIX/Nikkei225/TOPIX Small remain bullish, as does India’s SENSEX — add exposure. Seeing some failed breakouts in Europe, notably the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600; a concerning development.

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