Category

Technical Analysis

Oct 26
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China/HSI Uptick Short Levels and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • China/HSI Uptick Short Levels
  • Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

China/HSI Uptick Short Levels

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Bear impulse in China/HK sets up a sell on a squeeze. Sell volumes ignited on the A50 12,400 support break. HSI has been our top short in Asia and rewarded.
  • We did trim our HSI short at the 15k target but still represents 10% of our book. RSI is oversold with short squeeze risk (then re cycle short).
  • Hong Kong likes to bottom on big impulsive downside moves so will be interesting how our price and timing models converge.

Another Bear Market Rally Begins; Indexes and Sectors With Bullish 2+ Month Inflections

By Joe Jasper

  • The bear market rally we have been discussing since our Sept. 27 Compass report has begun.
  • Over half of the Sectors and all the major indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and S&P 600 Small Caps) display bullish 2+ month inflections.
  • As referenced last week, we expect the aforementioned indexes to rally to their 200-day MAs; longer-term, this is still a bear market until they can break above their 200-day MAs.

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Oct 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance

Bear Market Rally Remains in Play; Russell 2000 (IWM) Short-Term Breakout; Buys in Banks & Insurance

By Joe Jasper

  • Despite a few tumultuous trading days, the S&P 500 remains above its 200-week MA (3590-3600) and the Russell 2000 (IWM) remains above $163 — both important support levels moving forward.
  • We continue to see potential for a bear market rally (~+10% from the lows) as long as these support levels hold.
  • Bear market rallies would be confirmed by bullish reversals of the 2-month downtrends, or above 3810 on the SPX and above $174 on the IWM, and the latter happened today.

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Oct 17
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Mechanics of a Late October Cycle Low and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Mechanics of a Late October Cycle Low

Mechanics of a Late October Cycle Low

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Short basket call on Oct 4/5 and Oct 14. Mid October squeeze rally to recycle shorts unfolded/in line. October 23 and 30 cycle dates linked to a cycle low.
  • The key moving parts to form a cycle low center around a DXY peak, the US 10yr yield new high/top and long equity basket lows holding on an SPX low.
  • New yield and USD high to align with an SPX low with lead signals stemming from our long basket holding support zones (lead relative signal). Manage swings into late Oct.

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Oct 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Met 3 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Met 3,700 Sell Zone to Reduce Long Basket/Roll into Shorts

SPX Met 3,700 Sell Zone to Reduce Long Basket/Roll into Shorts

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Call was to buy our long group for a mid-October short covering rally. Lofty CPI means we retest lows (late October). Top today for dip, better sell territory next week.
  • NKY was our top long bet in our long basket (NKY, ASX, Euro Stoxx 50 and SPX) with a call to reduce with ideal sell levels due next week.
  • At SPX 3,700+ we are rolling back into our short group. Ideal low due in late October.

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Oct 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Fresh Assault on SPX 3 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Fresh Assault on SPX 3,630 Bull/Bear Line

Fresh Assault on SPX 3,630 Bull/Bear Line

By Thomas Schroeder

  • We recommended rolling back into our short group at SPX 3,800+ on October 5th. Friday’s NFP bear impulse does show energy to pressure the SPX 3,630/50 bull/bear line.
  • SPX chart shows downside follow through after downside impulses as does the oversold RSI reading (lacking any bull divergence). US yields and USD point north to provide bear fuel.
  • Below SPX 3,630 (after an uptick) does favor minor new lows in the US that is part of the bottom building process outlined for October.

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Oct 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX 3 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX 3,500 Is Where We Transition

SPX 3,500 Is Where We Transition

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX bearish to 3,500/30 below 3,650 with sell resistance at 3,650 (bounce bet failed at 3,740). Early October low followed by a short squeeze.
  • Meeting/Exceeding key downside targets in oversold (RSI’s due to bottom soon) Asia and Europe into an exhaustive down leg. 
  • October transition: We favor overlapping our long basket into early to mid-October new lows. NKY, ASX, RTY layered longs and USD sell is on deck (USD front run).

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Oct 01
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: MSCI ACWI Ex-US and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports — Bounce Potential

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports — Bounce Potential

By Joe Jasper

  • Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
  • Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
  • There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.

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Sep 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Risk Pivots and Color into Late September and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Risk Pivots and Color into Late September
  • Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

Risk Pivots and Color into Late September

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Risk pivots and action points into our late September capitulation cycle with a granular look at intraday SPX, NDX and DXY wedge patterns. DJI new low leads.
  • September 27/28 cycle date with a secondary timeline in early October. Need final touches into new lows for a turn signal. 27-28 capitulation that leads to a key low.
  • Impulsive yield rise fits with a blow off yield move toward 4.19% projection with DXY to 115.40 and an SPX crack to a new low (3,530 once below 3,650).

Bloomberg Commodity Index Breaks 2.5-Year Uptrend; Key Indexes/Sectors Testing Support at YTD Lows

By Joe Jasper

  • In last week’s Macro Vision report, we noted breaks below 3900 on the SPX and $293 on the QQQ opened the door for a test of YTD lows, or worse.
  • We are now getting a test of the YTD lows of 3636 on the S&P 500 and $269 on QQQ
  • With so many indexes and key Sectors currently oversold and testing support, we could certainly see a bounce/pause at current levels.

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Sep 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Asia Top Short Update and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Top Short Update
  • RTY Support Inflection Break
  • Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Asia Top Short Update

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our top short bets in Asia (HSI, Taiwan, Korea) show risk of breaking to new lows. The RTY breaks gives the bear trade another leg down.
  • Our relative perform longs (STI and SET 50) are due to drift to support but holding up well. USD is breaking to new highs with momentum.
  • Asian markets that have held up are now at risk of late-stage capitulation – ASX, Nifty and NKY.

RTY Support Inflection Break

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Fed bounce used to add to NDX short at 12,100. RTY break below 1,775 is the more damning inflection pivot to see bear momentum accelerate in our short group.
  • RTY below 1,775 targets 1,710 and 1,690. NDX increased bear pressure to crack 11,500/400 support and reach for that key 11k macro support level.
  • SPX 3,750 pressure test. RTY implies we crack 3,750 and reach for the June low. 3,500 is our new low PT then bull probe in late September/early October.

Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

By Joe Jasper

  • Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX
  • Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one — Brazil.
  • Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil

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Sep 21
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Tencent Nearing Our Bear Target to Reverse from Short to Long and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent Nearing Our Bear Target to Reverse from Short to Long

Tencent Nearing Our Bear Target to Reverse from Short to Long

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Tencent short from 395 is nearing our 282/264 target zone where we see a low to reverse to long as bull divergence matures.
  • Tencent 282/264 buy zone (cycle low due in early October) targets 335 once back above 310.
  • MACD bull divergence is more constructive and warns of an upside surprise in 2023 (after a Q1 decline) to challenge 395/400 macro pivot resistance.

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