Category

Technical Analysis

Dec 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Failed Breakouts and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling — Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples
  • Silvergate Capital Corp (SI US)

Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling — Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples

By Joe Jasper

  • Charts have not changed much from the prior week, with there actually being some deterioration within banks (KRE, KBE). 
  • The $SPX has been unable to sustain a breakout above its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, the $IWM remains below $190 resistance, and the DJIA could not sustain a breakout above 34,280
  • As long as these indexes are below these levels, we continue to see this as a good time to shift to more defensive areas and/or take profits.

Silvergate Capital Corp (SI US)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • SI US declined 78.5% from its August 2022 high of 108.11 to its November 2022 low of 23.20. 
  • Our Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) methodology has triggered a TSS < 10, highlighting extreme short-term momentum failure.
  • A new downtrend low, below 23.20, in the coming 1-2 days will likely fail quickly and deliver a 10% to 20% reversal in the coming 1-2 weeks.

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Dec 06
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Nikkei the First to Crack and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei the First to Crack

Nikkei the First to Crack

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Japan has been a top long in Asia, the rising wedge had us reducing our long. Friday saw a pronounced RSI bear wedge break and price crack.
  • Japan faces rotation pressure into core Asia and will shift Japan into the bear camp on a muted recovery attempt.
  • Japan’s macro cycle remains trapped in a sideways range. Buy support near 26,000 and sell resistance near 29,000.

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Dec 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Tactical Buy Dips and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Tactical Buy Dips

SPX Tactical Buy Dips

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our SPX bull view to 4,100 was satisfied, (Layer out of weaker longs) and now shifting to a more tactical stance of buying the 3,950-support zone to retest 4,100.
  • The current rise shares a number of characteristics with the summer counter trend rally. Weak spots are noted in small caps, NDX and Japan.
  • DXY 103 is our turn zone for a low in yield and SPX peak and topping process in December head of a more bearish Q1

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Dec 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Target Undershoot and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USD/JPY Target Undershoot

USD/JPY Target Undershoot

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our high conviction USD sell call at DXY 114/113 comprised the AUD, ZAR, Euro, KRW and JPY. Our focus today is the USD/JPY undershooting our 135 target.
  • AUD is near our 0.6850 but could stretch to 0.69. USD/ZAR met the 17.10 PT. Euro target remains at 1.0650 just under the 1.07 MT resistance. USD/KRW 1,298 PT met.
  • DXY 103 downside target with risk to 102 while aligning the US 10yr yield target of 3.50%/45%. NFP is the swing factor for yield today.

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Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Volume and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Volume, Call Options, Tencent, and China Overseas

Volume, Call Options, Tencent, and China Overseas

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Volume picked up on Tuesday, 29th November, just slightly below the 15th November volume, the previous buying climax.
  • Wednesday’s Volume fell 10% with new price highs.
  • The erratic rather than trending Volume without capitulation volume on the 31st October price lows are hallmarks of a bear market rally.

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Nov 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSCEI Buy Entry Met and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCEI Buy Entry Met
  • Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

HSCEI Buy Entry Met

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our call has centered around buying a dip in HK at HSCEI 5,800 and HSI 17,000 for a final upside drive into December to form at top.
  • H shares (our long vehicle) – Met 5,800 long entry. 6,030 is the level to clear and hold above. PT at 6,600 just under the 6,700 MT barrier.
  • Macro trend remains down. HSI 19,400 represents an excellent short opportunity for Q1 weakness. December is touted to be a topping/ range ahead of a more bearish Q1.

Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

By Joe Jasper

  • Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).
  • We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.
  • We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.

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Nov 29
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: TSM Finessing a Top and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TSM Finessing a Top

TSM Finessing a Top

By Thomas Schroeder

  • TSMC US ADR (TSM) squeeze higher still has a dip and rally sequence to work into a top. USD low due in December and will form a top near 87/88.
  • We are keen to buy a pullback for a minor new high but the bigger trade is to short near the 88/90 resistance.
  • Global cycle peak and USD bottoming in December is a key input. TSMC’s macro trend remains down.

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Nov 27
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Meituan 105 Buy Support and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Meituan 105 Buy Support

Meituan 105 Buy Support

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Meituan (3690 HK) has some big resistance hurdles to overcome and will act as tactical sell levels to seek out the 105 buy zone.
  • A tactical bounce back to 165 is on the cards with 168/75 the high degree sell barrier. Secondary trendline resistance rests near 185 as the bigger sell zone.
  • The bearish rising wedge stands out as the dominant force. The support break warns of fallout after a bounce attempt back to 168. A weak bounce would turn near 160.

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Nov 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: US Vs China Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • US Vs China Technology, Alibaba, China Unicom, and New World Development

US Vs China Technology, Alibaba, China Unicom, and New World Development

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The consensus of bottom in China Tech and China A shares continue to gain favour.
  • Bank of America is the latest to recommend selling US tech to buy China Tech.  
  • The Bullish China stocks call is predicated on reopening Pivot, yet the daily increase in cases and sporadic lockdown put the Pivot callers to double down.

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Nov 24
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals
  • Oracle Corporation (ORCL US): TSS Recommendation Closed After One Week (-4.5%)

Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals

By Joe Jasper

  • Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, and the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at 200-day MA, we see this 1.5-month rally continuing.
  • We expect further upside as long as the 1.5-month uptrend channels remain intact on the SPX and IWM, and we believe that breakouts above their 200-day MAs could be coming
  • Breakouts above their 200-day MAs that would likely signal the end to this bear market.

Oracle Corporation (ORCL US): TSS Recommendation Closed After One Week (-4.5%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • The development of TSS has been a life’s work. We anticipate a high win / loss ratio and accept than not every recommendation will be profitable. 
  • On 15 November we determined that extreme ST momentum failure would likely deliver a 4.0% to 5.5% decline in ORCL US in 1-2 weeks. 
  • ORCL US failed to deliver, declining only 0.6% before closing 1 week later, on 22 November, 4.5% above our recommendation entry level. This recommendation is now closed.

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