Category

Technical Analysis

Dec 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Volume and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Volume, Call Options, Tencent, and China Overseas

Volume, Call Options, Tencent, and China Overseas

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Volume picked up on Tuesday, 29th November, just slightly below the 15th November volume, the previous buying climax.
  • Wednesday’s Volume fell 10% with new price highs.
  • The erratic rather than trending Volume without capitulation volume on the 31st October price lows are hallmarks of a bear market rally.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Nov 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSCEI Buy Entry Met and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCEI Buy Entry Met
  • Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

HSCEI Buy Entry Met

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our call has centered around buying a dip in HK at HSCEI 5,800 and HSI 17,000 for a final upside drive into December to form at top.
  • H shares (our long vehicle) – Met 5,800 long entry. 6,030 is the level to clear and hold above. PT at 6,600 just under the 6,700 MT barrier.
  • Macro trend remains down. HSI 19,400 represents an excellent short opportunity for Q1 weakness. December is touted to be a topping/ range ahead of a more bearish Q1.

Time to Get Defensive After 1.5-Month Uptrend Breaks; High Yield Spreads Widening Much Like Mid-Aug.

By Joe Jasper

  • Since early-October we have discussed our expectation for a bear rally, targeting the 200-day MAs on the $IWM and $SPX; targets were hit (within 0.5% of hitting on SPX).
  • We are now seeing short-term uptrend breaks on the IWM and the DJIA; this is a good time to get defensive and/or take profits, as the 1.5-month rally appears over.
  • We expect more weakness in the weeks ahead, and we cannot rule out another test of the 2022 lows.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Nov 29
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: TSM Finessing a Top and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TSM Finessing a Top

TSM Finessing a Top

By Thomas Schroeder

  • TSMC US ADR (TSM) squeeze higher still has a dip and rally sequence to work into a top. USD low due in December and will form a top near 87/88.
  • We are keen to buy a pullback for a minor new high but the bigger trade is to short near the 88/90 resistance.
  • Global cycle peak and USD bottoming in December is a key input. TSMC’s macro trend remains down.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Nov 27
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Meituan 105 Buy Support and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Meituan 105 Buy Support

Meituan 105 Buy Support

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Meituan (3690 HK) has some big resistance hurdles to overcome and will act as tactical sell levels to seek out the 105 buy zone.
  • A tactical bounce back to 165 is on the cards with 168/75 the high degree sell barrier. Secondary trendline resistance rests near 185 as the bigger sell zone.
  • The bearish rising wedge stands out as the dominant force. The support break warns of fallout after a bounce attempt back to 168. A weak bounce would turn near 160.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Nov 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: US Vs China Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • US Vs China Technology, Alibaba, China Unicom, and New World Development

US Vs China Technology, Alibaba, China Unicom, and New World Development

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The consensus of bottom in China Tech and China A shares continue to gain favour.
  • Bank of America is the latest to recommend selling US tech to buy China Tech.  
  • The Bullish China stocks call is predicated on reopening Pivot, yet the daily increase in cases and sporadic lockdown put the Pivot callers to double down.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Nov 24
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals
  • Oracle Corporation (ORCL US): TSS Recommendation Closed After One Week (-4.5%)

Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals

By Joe Jasper

  • Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, and the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at 200-day MA, we see this 1.5-month rally continuing.
  • We expect further upside as long as the 1.5-month uptrend channels remain intact on the SPX and IWM, and we believe that breakouts above their 200-day MAs could be coming
  • Breakouts above their 200-day MAs that would likely signal the end to this bear market.

Oracle Corporation (ORCL US): TSS Recommendation Closed After One Week (-4.5%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • The development of TSS has been a life’s work. We anticipate a high win / loss ratio and accept than not every recommendation will be profitable. 
  • On 15 November we determined that extreme ST momentum failure would likely deliver a 4.0% to 5.5% decline in ORCL US in 1-2 weeks. 
  • ORCL US failed to deliver, declining only 0.6% before closing 1 week later, on 22 November, 4.5% above our recommendation entry level. This recommendation is now closed.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Nov 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Asia Long Rotation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Long Rotation

Asia Long Rotation

By Thomas Schroeder

  • NKY, ASX and H shares have been our top long bets with rotation now favoring Korea and Taiwan (China as well) at the expense of Japan.
  • USD weakness call from DXY 113 and 109 makes Asian equities more attractive into early December and an integral part of our rotation theme.
  • Korea and Taiwan are favored bets on dips. China will run out of steam near A50 12,900 and act as the lead energy driver for Asia.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Nov 21
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX 4 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX 4,100 Top Build Ahead of 3,300

SPX 4,100 Top Build Ahead of 3,300

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX has another tactical leg up within our Q4 bull cycle toward 4,100-200 where a top is expected to form.
  • Lead warning signals are emerging in the RTY relative performance and well-defined rising wedge. NDX trading new key lows is a negative for growth.
  • SPX 4,100 wedge sell zone stands out for a final down leg to 3,300/200, that sets the stage for a macro low a new bull cycle.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Nov 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

Bullish Reversals Continue: TAIEX, KOSPI, AEX, Hang Seng, CSI 300. Buy Cyclicals/Growth on Pullbacks

By Joe Jasper

  • The bear market rally that we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int’l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
  • As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
  • Buy ideas on a pullback in: Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Technology/Tech Services

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Nov 18
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Buy This Give Back and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Buy This Give Back
  • HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

Buy This Give Back

By Thomas Schroeder

  • US equities give back post PPI is a buying opportunity within our Q4 bull framework. The conviction trade is to sell USD upticks with lower yields in store into December.
  • Sell the USD into Dec which supports turn around plays in Asia. DXY 103 is our bull support to stage a fresh rise. How will yields respond?
  • SPX 3,850 buy support with 4,100/200 the Q4 target to top build ahead of a fresh Q1 bear cycle. Summer bounce similarities.

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.
  • What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.
  • The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free