Category

Technical Analysis

Dec 29
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.
  • The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). 
  • These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.

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Dec 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Hang Seng Index and Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng Index and Tencent

Hang Seng Index and Tencent

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Holiday Volume and excessive price actions make market analysis less than helpful. HSI daily shares traded volume on 21st was the lowest year to date.
  • Thursday saw a pick-up in volume. Word on easing Covid restrictions for international travelers, reopening HK-China Border in January, and a higher close in the US market brought outsized gains.
  • The stock was up 4.12% and had the heaviest volume on HKEX on the 22nd, yet the stock volume was well below 21 days’ average volume.

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Dec 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: NKY and JPY Trades and Thresholds and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • NKY and JPY Trades and Thresholds

NKY and JPY Trades and Thresholds

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Nikkei was touted as our top short bet in Asia and has panned out nicely. 27k sell resistance for a test on sub 26k to probe for a bull reversal.
  • USD/JPY sell an uptick near 134. PT at sub 131 and 129.50. Jury still out as to the policy impact on global rates/equities. We are trading a lot like 2018.
  • Taiwan and Nifty short targets are reiterated. SPX and NDX levels are in line but price action remains poor to bearish.

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Dec 20
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: BABA Key Sell Points and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • BABA Key Sell Points

BABA Key Sell Points

By Thomas Schroeder

  • BABA ADR shows well defined range trade points as the rising wedge matures. 173 stands out as formidable sell resistance and 157 the level to crack.
  • MACD trendline coincides the “0” turn level that is expected to cap the upside near term and induce fresh down leg. The May break does send a forward weak signal.
  • The macro picture continues to warn of a 135 retest in 2023. Current rising wedge is corrective in nature.

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Dec 17
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL US): TSS < 10 - New Multi-Month Low Risks Imminent Failure and Reversal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL US): TSS < 10 - New Multi-Month Low Risks Imminent Failure and Reversal

PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL US): TSS < 10 - New Multi-Month Low Risks Imminent Failure and Reversal

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • PYPL US has declined 32% in the August to December period.
  • Our proprietary TSS methodology deems the interim downtrend to be exhausted (Trend Sustainability Score < 10).
  • Thursday’s new multi-month low (NY close at 69.77) has a high probability of being unsustainable and triggering an upward correction of minimum 8% to 13% in the coming 1-2 weeks.

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Dec 16
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX 4 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX 4,150 Sell Used to Short
  • Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, and Longfor Group

SPX 4,150 Sell Used to Short

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX 4,150 turn target met. Our game plan focused on longs established near SPX 3,940 with an ideal sell zone at 4,150 on a brief spike above 4,100. 
  • We established shorts at that SPX 4,150 (NDX, RTY, CAC, NKY, HSI). Ladder shorts on strength and use dips to reduce.
  • Mid December cycle peak may need some top building work into January where we range before a more prominent down leg.

Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, and Longfor Group

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • After the sharp rally comes the pause; almost all constituents and leading indices are forming an inside week or a weekly Doji (small or long body with very little difference in open and close levels) [based on mid-day Thursday].
  • These two formations are a typical indication of market indecision.
  • However, it is unlikely to be quiet for the rest of December. 

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Dec 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Today’s Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? SPX Key Levels: 4100 and 3910 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Today’s Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? SPX Key Levels: 4100 and 3910

Today’s Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? SPX Key Levels: 4100 and 3910

By Joe Jasper

  • The SPX, $IWM, $QQQ continue to have trouble breaking above their 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the DJIA has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280.
  • With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout.
  • We still recommend shifting exposure to defensives (Staples,Utilities,Health Care) and/or taking profits following this rally, but we cannot rule out potential for major upside breakouts. We discuss specific levels below.

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Dec 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Where to Sell Hong Kong and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Where to Sell Hong Kong
  • Silvergate Capital Corp (SI US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+10.69%)

Where to Sell Hong Kong

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our long in H shares is looking stretched and we need to fine tune an exit strategy with counter balance pivots. HSI is the short on strength at trendline.
  • A50 13,400 intermediate resistance stands out to cap near term strength and USD/CNH 9.0/01 is our USD buy support that aligns with an A50 top.
  • Consensus is now bullish China (wrinkles to work through) as we face a more uncertain global cycle in Q1. HSI faces wedge and trendline resistance!

Silvergate Capital Corp (SI US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+10.69%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • On 6 December we determined that a new interim downtrend low below 23.20 would likely fail and produce a 10% to 20% correction in 1-2 weeks. 
  • SI US subsequently bottomed at 21.32 and produced a 10.69% gain in the following 3 days to a high of 23.60. 
  • Note that this result was at the lower end of our expectations, however we must acknowledge a positive result. Gains were quickly given up in the following session however.

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Dec 11
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD Low Gels Dec Risk Peak and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USD Low Gels Dec Risk Peak

USD Low Gels Dec Risk Peak

By Thomas Schroeder

  • We have outlined our bullish DXY zone at 103 but what if the dollar front runs a bull turn as the bulk of near-term yield weakness is baked in.
  • USD lows versus Asian FX shows the ability to turn USD bullish early.
  • SPX rise off of 3,900 pivot support after cracking RSI and price wedge supports a concern if we cannot muster a near term reaction rise.

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Dec 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Hang Seng Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, AIA, Tencent, and China Resource Land

Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, AIA, Tencent, and China Resource Land

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The announcement of easing most Covid restrictions resulted in a new rally high, but the close was below at least the previous two-day open/closes, making it an outside day reversal pattern.
  • This note highlights the reversal patterns in HSI, HSTECH, AIA, and Tencent. These have some of the cleanest reversal patterns.
  • In real estate, SOEs like China Resource Land [-11.75% from 30th November intraday peak] and China Overseas Land [-9.7% from 29th intraday peak] reversed before the China Mainland Property index [6th December], a reflection of a short squeeze as a crucial driver of sector rally. Longfor peaked on 6th December and is down 17% after a 276% rally.

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