Category

Technical Analysis

Dec 17
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL US): TSS < 10 - New Multi-Month Low Risks Imminent Failure and Reversal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL US): TSS < 10 - New Multi-Month Low Risks Imminent Failure and Reversal

PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL US): TSS < 10 - New Multi-Month Low Risks Imminent Failure and Reversal

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • PYPL US has declined 32% in the August to December period.
  • Our proprietary TSS methodology deems the interim downtrend to be exhausted (Trend Sustainability Score < 10).
  • Thursday’s new multi-month low (NY close at 69.77) has a high probability of being unsustainable and triggering an upward correction of minimum 8% to 13% in the coming 1-2 weeks.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Dec 16
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX 4 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX 4,150 Sell Used to Short
  • Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, and Longfor Group

SPX 4,150 Sell Used to Short

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX 4,150 turn target met. Our game plan focused on longs established near SPX 3,940 with an ideal sell zone at 4,150 on a brief spike above 4,100. 
  • We established shorts at that SPX 4,150 (NDX, RTY, CAC, NKY, HSI). Ladder shorts on strength and use dips to reduce.
  • Mid December cycle peak may need some top building work into January where we range before a more prominent down leg.

Hang Seng Index, Alibaba, and Longfor Group

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • After the sharp rally comes the pause; almost all constituents and leading indices are forming an inside week or a weekly Doji (small or long body with very little difference in open and close levels) [based on mid-day Thursday].
  • These two formations are a typical indication of market indecision.
  • However, it is unlikely to be quiet for the rest of December. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Dec 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Today’s Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? SPX Key Levels: 4100 and 3910 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Today’s Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? SPX Key Levels: 4100 and 3910

Today’s Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? SPX Key Levels: 4100 and 3910

By Joe Jasper

  • The SPX, $IWM, $QQQ continue to have trouble breaking above their 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the DJIA has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280.
  • With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout.
  • We still recommend shifting exposure to defensives (Staples,Utilities,Health Care) and/or taking profits following this rally, but we cannot rule out potential for major upside breakouts. We discuss specific levels below.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Dec 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Where to Sell Hong Kong and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Where to Sell Hong Kong
  • Silvergate Capital Corp (SI US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+10.69%)

Where to Sell Hong Kong

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our long in H shares is looking stretched and we need to fine tune an exit strategy with counter balance pivots. HSI is the short on strength at trendline.
  • A50 13,400 intermediate resistance stands out to cap near term strength and USD/CNH 9.0/01 is our USD buy support that aligns with an A50 top.
  • Consensus is now bullish China (wrinkles to work through) as we face a more uncertain global cycle in Q1. HSI faces wedge and trendline resistance!

Silvergate Capital Corp (SI US): TSS Target Achieved in 3 Days (+10.69%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • On 6 December we determined that a new interim downtrend low below 23.20 would likely fail and produce a 10% to 20% correction in 1-2 weeks. 
  • SI US subsequently bottomed at 21.32 and produced a 10.69% gain in the following 3 days to a high of 23.60. 
  • Note that this result was at the lower end of our expectations, however we must acknowledge a positive result. Gains were quickly given up in the following session however.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Dec 11
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD Low Gels Dec Risk Peak and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USD Low Gels Dec Risk Peak

USD Low Gels Dec Risk Peak

By Thomas Schroeder

  • We have outlined our bullish DXY zone at 103 but what if the dollar front runs a bull turn as the bulk of near-term yield weakness is baked in.
  • USD lows versus Asian FX shows the ability to turn USD bullish early.
  • SPX rise off of 3,900 pivot support after cracking RSI and price wedge supports a concern if we cannot muster a near term reaction rise.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Dec 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Hang Seng Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, AIA, Tencent, and China Resource Land

Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, AIA, Tencent, and China Resource Land

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The announcement of easing most Covid restrictions resulted in a new rally high, but the close was below at least the previous two-day open/closes, making it an outside day reversal pattern.
  • This note highlights the reversal patterns in HSI, HSTECH, AIA, and Tencent. These have some of the cleanest reversal patterns.
  • In real estate, SOEs like China Resource Land [-11.75% from 30th November intraday peak] and China Overseas Land [-9.7% from 29th intraday peak] reversed before the China Mainland Property index [6th December], a reflection of a short squeeze as a crucial driver of sector rally. Longfor peaked on 6th December and is down 17% after a 276% rally.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Dec 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Failed Breakouts and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling — Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples
  • Silvergate Capital Corp (SI US)

Failed Breakouts, Banks Crumbling — Get Defensive; Buy Ideas Within Consumer Staples

By Joe Jasper

  • Charts have not changed much from the prior week, with there actually being some deterioration within banks (KRE, KBE). 
  • The $SPX has been unable to sustain a breakout above its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, the $IWM remains below $190 resistance, and the DJIA could not sustain a breakout above 34,280
  • As long as these indexes are below these levels, we continue to see this as a good time to shift to more defensive areas and/or take profits.

Silvergate Capital Corp (SI US)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • SI US declined 78.5% from its August 2022 high of 108.11 to its November 2022 low of 23.20. 
  • Our Trend Sustainability Score (TSS) methodology has triggered a TSS < 10, highlighting extreme short-term momentum failure.
  • A new downtrend low, below 23.20, in the coming 1-2 days will likely fail quickly and deliver a 10% to 20% reversal in the coming 1-2 weeks.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Dec 06
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Nikkei the First to Crack and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei the First to Crack

Nikkei the First to Crack

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Japan has been a top long in Asia, the rising wedge had us reducing our long. Friday saw a pronounced RSI bear wedge break and price crack.
  • Japan faces rotation pressure into core Asia and will shift Japan into the bear camp on a muted recovery attempt.
  • Japan’s macro cycle remains trapped in a sideways range. Buy support near 26,000 and sell resistance near 29,000.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Dec 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Tactical Buy Dips and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Tactical Buy Dips

SPX Tactical Buy Dips

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our SPX bull view to 4,100 was satisfied, (Layer out of weaker longs) and now shifting to a more tactical stance of buying the 3,950-support zone to retest 4,100.
  • The current rise shares a number of characteristics with the summer counter trend rally. Weak spots are noted in small caps, NDX and Japan.
  • DXY 103 is our turn zone for a low in yield and SPX peak and topping process in December head of a more bearish Q1

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Dec 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Target Undershoot and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USD/JPY Target Undershoot

USD/JPY Target Undershoot

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our high conviction USD sell call at DXY 114/113 comprised the AUD, ZAR, Euro, KRW and JPY. Our focus today is the USD/JPY undershooting our 135 target.
  • AUD is near our 0.6850 but could stretch to 0.69. USD/ZAR met the 17.10 PT. Euro target remains at 1.0650 just under the 1.07 MT resistance. USD/KRW 1,298 PT met.
  • DXY 103 downside target with risk to 102 while aligning the US 10yr yield target of 3.50%/45%. NFP is the swing factor for yield today.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free