Category

Technical Analysis

Jan 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Ethereum (XETUSD): Target Achieved in 9 Days (+19.6%) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Ethereum (XETUSD): Target Achieved in 9 Days (+19.6%)

Ethereum (XETUSD): Target Achieved in 9 Days (+19.6%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • On 12 January we published a bullish tactical recommendation in Ethereum (XETUSD).
  • We determined that Ethereum at 1400.813 was evolving into a sustainable multi-month uptrend and was likely to initially target a 19.6% upswing to 1675.58. 
  • Ethereum achieved our initial target at 1675.58 (+19.6%) on 21 January 2023.

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Jan 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bitcoin (XBTUSD): Target Achieved in 5 Days (+17.4%) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bitcoin (XBTUSD): Target Achieved in 5 Days (+17.4%)

Bitcoin (XBTUSD): Target Achieved in 5 Days (+17.4%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • On 12 January we published a bullish tactical recommendation in Bitcoin (XBTUSD).
  • We determined that Bitcoin at 18281 was evolving into a sustainable multi-month uptrend and was likely to initially target a 17.4% upswing to 21469.50.
  • •Bitcoin achieved our initial target at 21469.50 (+17.4%) on 17 January 2023.

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Jan 17
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Trendline to Define and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Trendline to Define
  • Tencent Reach for Sell Zone

SPX Trendline to Define

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Adjusted our SPX resistance level given overshoots with a focus on SPX futures trendline at 4,080 and price pivot at 4,100.
  • We will take this week to measure overbought conditions and sentiment. Near term upside risk to SPX trendline that defines the LT trend.
  • We have not given up on our macro bear cycle as long as trendline caps. Fine tuning top signals is the chore at hand.

Tencent Reach for Sell Zone

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Tencent faces formidable resistance at 385 that may not be seen for a while. 385 is where old lows and old highs coincide.
  • RSI is extended (ST sell and bounce). Buy volumes are descent but have been drifting since late 2022.
  • 385 a good zone to sell cash positions or short to challenge pivot supports outlined. 320 is an intermediate level to hold to keep things glued together.

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Jan 13
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Weekly Close Is Likely To Confirm Sustainable Bitcoin and Ethereum Uptrends and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Close Is Likely To Confirm Sustainable Bitcoin and Ethereum Uptrends

Weekly Close Is Likely To Confirm Sustainable Bitcoin and Ethereum Uptrends

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • Today we step away from our ST / tactical TSS strategy and focus on definitive MT momentum confirmation.
  • The uptrends that have evolved since the November lows in Bitcoin and Ethereum are small relative to the 2022 declines.
  • This week is in the process of delivering definitive bullish MT momentum confirmation in both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Such an outcome will confirm a high probability multi-month uptrend bias.

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Jan 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

By Joe Jasper

  • We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.
  • We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).
  • With yesterday’s break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target

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Jan 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Bounce to Short and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Bounce to Short
  • PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL US): TSS Target Achieved in 12 Days (+12.5%)

SPX Bounce to Short

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX bounce call from 3,800 to 3,950 is unfolding with risk of an early failure. Flat pattern wants to press lower post bounce.
  • Sell points noted at 3,950 with scope to 3,980. We are using NDX and RTY as our short vehicles.
  • DXY still needs some time to base at 103/102 but a low would fit with a risk top here.

PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL US): TSS Target Achieved in 12 Days (+12.5%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • On 16 December we determined that the new interim downtrend low at 69.77 would likely fail and produce an 8% to 13% correction to 75.00/78.50 in 1-2 weeks. 
  • PYPL US subsequently bottomed at 66.39, before reversing to 78.48 (+12.5% from 69.77), 12 days after our recommendation.   
  • Please refer to our publication on 19 October 2022 … “Introducing Our Tactical Trend Reversal Methodology: TSS (Trend Sustainability Score)” for a description of our proprietary TSS methodology.

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Jan 09
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Asia Long Bets and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Long Bets

Asia Long Bets

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our biggest shift in Asia stems from reversing from short to long Japan and Taiwan. We have held a positive view in Australia and Thailand.
  • SPX bounce call from 3,800 to 3,950, is lacking needed energy. Flat pattern wants to press lower post bounce and represents pullback risk in Asia as does an oversold USD.
  • Asia longs are tactical in nature but have the ability to run into late January within the context of a larger degree Q1 equity bear cycle.

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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming — Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming — Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming — Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.
  • We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.
  • And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)

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Jan 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

By Joe Jasper

  • Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.
  • The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.
  • Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.

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Jan 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: 2023 Kickoff Trades and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • 2023 Kickoff Trades

2023 Kickoff Trades

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX macro top and sell call from 4,150 targets 3,300/200 where a base and low is expected ahead of a more bullish 2H23. 
  • Cycle: Equity weak bias into January 8 if not closer to the 18th. From January 20 onwards we see a tactical rally cycle unfolding (still within the more bearish Q1 framework).
  • Asian positioning outlined with charts and details to follow once markets come online.

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