Category

Technical Analysis

Feb 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – ST Technical Triggers Imply 8.5% Tactical Opportunity and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – ST Technical Triggers Imply 8.5% Tactical Opportunity

China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – ST Technical Triggers Imply 8.5% Tactical Opportunity

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Bullish price action and LT momentum failure in Oct/Nov 2023 could be compared to holding a fully inflated balloon under water. Eventually it must rise. 
  • January 2023 delivered that spike and a recent correction and multi-day test of key support has delivered an impulsive positive price response today. Target an 8.5% tactical upswing towards 63.90.

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Feb 09
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP) – LT Momentum Confirms Material Upside Potential in 2023 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP) – LT Momentum Confirms Material Upside Potential in 2023

Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP) – LT Momentum Confirms Material Upside Potential in 2023

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Q1 2023 is confirming that the base built around the historically significant 50 quarter MA since Q3 2021 is likely to be a material LT bottom.
  • Both price action and LT momentum triggers (particularly the quarterly RSI) are confirming a sustainable LT uptrend in 2023 and potentially well into 2024. Potential 20% upswing.

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Feb 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

By Joe Jasper

  • Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&P 500.
  • There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).
  • We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.

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Feb 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USDJPY – Is USDJPY Confirming a Return to the Long-Term Uptrend? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USDJPY – Is USDJPY Confirming a Return to the Long-Term Uptrend?
  • EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) — Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106
  • Zhejiang HangKe Technology-A (688006 CH) – Confirming a Tradeable Bullish Multi-Month Opportunity

USDJPY – Is USDJPY Confirming a Return to the Long-Term Uptrend?

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Last week delivered a host of bullish MT USD reversal patterns across USD/G10 and USD/Asia pairs.
  • USDJPY has responded impulsively to critical LT support around 127.50. February has the potential to confirm a return to the multi-year uptrend with aggressive targets around 175/180.

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) — Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

By Joe Jasper

  • The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
  • As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
  • China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.

Zhejiang HangKe Technology-A (688006 CH) – Confirming a Tradeable Bullish Multi-Month Opportunity

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • January completed a bullish 3 month reversal pattern in 688006 CH and thus confirmed a likely MT bottom.
  • 688006 CH has had an incredible pivotal relationship with its 50 week MA since 2020. A weekly close above the 50 week MA will confirm a high probability MT uptrend.

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Feb 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China Longyuan Power (916 HK) – High Probability 22% Rally Confirmed at the January Close and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • China Longyuan Power (916 HK) – High Probability 22% Rally Confirmed at the January Close
  • Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials
  • Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) – Prominent Topside Failure – Meaningful Correction Risk

China Longyuan Power (916 HK) – High Probability 22% Rally Confirmed at the January Close

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • January 2023 confirmed a high probability bullish outlook when all 3 pillars were definitively triggered. 
  • Monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has an incredible multi-year history of confirming large upswings in 916 HK. January completed the 5th such bullish confirmation since 2014. Multi-month target at 12.945. 

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

By Joe Jasper

  • With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
  • We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
  • The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.

Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) – Prominent Topside Failure – Meaningful Correction Risk

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Friday’s weekly close is setting up to confirm a high probability bearish outlook when all 3 pillars are definitively triggered.
  • A weekly close below 6077 will confirm a high probability multi-week to multi-month correction target in the 5415/5650 range.

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Feb 01
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

By Joe Jasper

  • We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&P 500
  • And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&P 500 to cap upside
  • Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO

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Jan 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Nifty the Clearest Short in Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Nifty the Clearest Short in Asia
  • Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

Nifty the Clearest Short in Asia

By Thomas Schroeder

  • We are lacking short ideas in Asia given we are long most markets. India presents a fresh short idea after failing at trend and price resistance.
  • The failure at trendline and 18,200 price resistance was touted as a bearish turn. We have now formed a bear flat that is set to break lower.
  • Macro: Remains bullish and we will probe for a long at 17,500/300. 19,470 is our macro bull projection.

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

By Joe Jasper

  • 2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
  • We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
  • We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations

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Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Nifty Index (NIFTY INDEX) Has Confirmed Multi-Month Downtrend Risk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Nifty Index (NIFTY INDEX) Has Confirmed Multi-Month Downtrend Risk
  • Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – High Probability Target at 9450/70 in 2023 (+20%)

Nifty Index (NIFTY INDEX) Has Confirmed Multi-Month Downtrend Risk

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Every recommendation requires definitive evidence of all 3 pillars to be regarded as a high probability outcome. 
  • The Nifty Index (NIFTY INDEX) delivered upon our 3 pillars in Nov/Dec 2022. A consecutive down month in January will be further evidence of a likely 15%-18% correction.

Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – High Probability Target at 9450/70 in 2023 (+20%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • On 26 January 2023 we published our bearish multi-month Nifty Index (NIFTY INDEX) outlook. For the RV player, the Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) is likely to present material opportunity.
  • At TMA we place tremendous emphasis on momentum confirmation. Currently, LT momentum triggers confirm a sustainable multi-month to multi-quarter uptrend in the HSCEI.
  • Occasionally Fibonacci retracement levels, based off different portions of a trend, coincide. These create high probability targets. 9450/70 in the HSCEI is one such high probability target in 2023.

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Jan 26
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP) Is On The Verge Of Confirming Bullish MT Trend Change and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP) Is On The Verge Of Confirming Bullish MT Trend Change

Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP) Is On The Verge Of Confirming Bullish MT Trend Change

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Every recommendation requires definitive evidence of all 3 pillars to be regarded as a high probability outcome. 
  • 5703 JP has a LT double bottom in place and comprehensive MT uptrend confirmation (weekly RSI). Only an appropriate weekly close is required this week to confirm the MT uptrend.

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Jan 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Communications and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples – Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples – Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

By Joe Jasper

  • In our January 10th Compass, we discussed a break above 3910 on SPX would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range.
  • We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area.
  • After being underweight Communications (XLC) since Nov 2021, sidestepping 20% underperformance vs. SPX, we now see signs of price and RS bottoms, and we are upgrading to market weight. Buy.

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