Category

Technical Analysis

Jan 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

By Joe Jasper

  • We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.
  • We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).
  • With yesterday’s break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target

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Jan 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Bounce to Short and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Bounce to Short
  • PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL US): TSS Target Achieved in 12 Days (+12.5%)

SPX Bounce to Short

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX bounce call from 3,800 to 3,950 is unfolding with risk of an early failure. Flat pattern wants to press lower post bounce.
  • Sell points noted at 3,950 with scope to 3,980. We are using NDX and RTY as our short vehicles.
  • DXY still needs some time to base at 103/102 but a low would fit with a risk top here.

PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL US): TSS Target Achieved in 12 Days (+12.5%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • On 16 December we determined that the new interim downtrend low at 69.77 would likely fail and produce an 8% to 13% correction to 75.00/78.50 in 1-2 weeks. 
  • PYPL US subsequently bottomed at 66.39, before reversing to 78.48 (+12.5% from 69.77), 12 days after our recommendation.   
  • Please refer to our publication on 19 October 2022 … “Introducing Our Tactical Trend Reversal Methodology: TSS (Trend Sustainability Score)” for a description of our proprietary TSS methodology.

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Jan 09
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Asia Long Bets and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Long Bets

Asia Long Bets

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our biggest shift in Asia stems from reversing from short to long Japan and Taiwan. We have held a positive view in Australia and Thailand.
  • SPX bounce call from 3,800 to 3,950, is lacking needed energy. Flat pattern wants to press lower post bounce and represents pullback risk in Asia as does an oversold USD.
  • Asia longs are tactical in nature but have the ability to run into late January within the context of a larger degree Q1 equity bear cycle.

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Jan 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming — Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming — Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming — Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.
  • We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.
  • And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)

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Jan 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

More Downside to Lead to Buying Opportunity?; Buy Ideas in Consumer Staples, EU Banks, Gold Miners

By Joe Jasper

  • Market dynamics remain largely bearish/unchanged, and we are sticking with our call that breaks of supports on SPX, IWM,QQQ are likely to result in a test of the 2022 lows.
  • The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is already testing its 2022 lows, but the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM) are still 6-9% above their 2022 lows.
  • Depending on how the market responds to its 2022 lows, that could be a better area to increase risk.

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Jan 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: 2023 Kickoff Trades and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • 2023 Kickoff Trades

2023 Kickoff Trades

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX macro top and sell call from 4,150 targets 3,300/200 where a base and low is expected ahead of a more bullish 2H23. 
  • Cycle: Equity weak bias into January 8 if not closer to the 18th. From January 20 onwards we see a tactical rally cycle unfolding (still within the more bearish Q1 framework).
  • Asian positioning outlined with charts and details to follow once markets come online.

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Dec 29
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

Upgrading Staples and Health Care to Overweight; Stay Defensive, Expecting Test of YTD Lows on SPX

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late November we have been discussing our expectations for a pullback, while recommending shifting exposure to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Health Care) and/or taking profits.
  • The pullback is finally happening following breaks below 3910 support on the S&P 500, $177.50 support on the Russell 2000 (IWM), and $279 support on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). 
  • These levels are now resistance, while major resistance remains at 200-dayMAs/YTD downtrends. Stick with defensives/cash as we believe a test of the YTD lows on the aforementioned indexes is likely.

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Dec 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Hang Seng Index and Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng Index and Tencent

Hang Seng Index and Tencent

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • Holiday Volume and excessive price actions make market analysis less than helpful. HSI daily shares traded volume on 21st was the lowest year to date.
  • Thursday saw a pick-up in volume. Word on easing Covid restrictions for international travelers, reopening HK-China Border in January, and a higher close in the US market brought outsized gains.
  • The stock was up 4.12% and had the heaviest volume on HKEX on the 22nd, yet the stock volume was well below 21 days’ average volume.

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Dec 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: NKY and JPY Trades and Thresholds and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • NKY and JPY Trades and Thresholds

NKY and JPY Trades and Thresholds

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Nikkei was touted as our top short bet in Asia and has panned out nicely. 27k sell resistance for a test on sub 26k to probe for a bull reversal.
  • USD/JPY sell an uptick near 134. PT at sub 131 and 129.50. Jury still out as to the policy impact on global rates/equities. We are trading a lot like 2018.
  • Taiwan and Nifty short targets are reiterated. SPX and NDX levels are in line but price action remains poor to bearish.

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Dec 20
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: BABA Key Sell Points and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • BABA Key Sell Points

BABA Key Sell Points

By Thomas Schroeder

  • BABA ADR shows well defined range trade points as the rising wedge matures. 173 stands out as formidable sell resistance and 157 the level to crack.
  • MACD trendline coincides the “0” turn level that is expected to cap the upside near term and induce fresh down leg. The May break does send a forward weak signal.
  • The macro picture continues to warn of a 135 retest in 2023. Current rising wedge is corrective in nature.

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