Category

Technical Analysis

Sep 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners

SPX Bull Trap Setting Up?; Neutral Outlook Intact; Keeping an Open Mind. Buys in Gold Miners

By Joe Jasper

  • The S&P 500 (SPX) is approaching 5783, which is the upper-end of an important target/resistance area we have discussed for over a month (5670-5783).
  • 2007 SPX topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping (i.e.,5783)
  • SPX is “breaking out” which is bullish, but time and time again we have seen bull/bear traps (false breakouts/breakdowns) at major turning points. Bull trap confirmed on break below 5670

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Sep 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

By Joe Jasper

  • The S&P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.
  • Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.
  • As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.

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Sep 11
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Staples and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

Upgrading Staples, Real Estate, and Health Care to Overweight; List of Concerns Continues to Grow

By Joe Jasper

  • Our long-term outlook remains neutral on the S&P 500 (SPX) as of our 8/6/24 Compass, after being bullish since early-November 2023.
  • Since late-July discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation on SPX and QQQ; now it’s likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months from 7/17/24.
  • At that point the market will decide which way this consolidation resolves. Throughout this pullback we have said that this consolidation could end up being a significant topping pattern.

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Sep 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

By Joe Jasper

  • The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
  • We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&P 500, Japan’s TOPIX, and Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 to “roll over near current or marginally higher levels.”
  • Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.

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Sep 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

By Joe Jasper

  • Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.
  • Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.
  • SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).

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Sep 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Greenback Rebound Commodity Headwind? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Greenback Rebound Commodity Headwind?

Greenback Rebound Commodity Headwind?

By Douglas Busch

  • S&P 500 bull flagging and looks for break to upside.
  • US Dollar bounces off par. More room in the tank?
  • Copper and Natural Gas at interesting junctures. Bulls on notice. 

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Aug 31
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

By Joe Jasper

  • Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan’s TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe’s EURO STOXX 50.
  • We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
  • Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.

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Aug 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

By Joe Jasper

  • The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.
  • We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.
  • After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels 

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Aug 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
  • Japan’s TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
  • It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int’l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).

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Aug 21
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

By Joe Jasper

  • We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports
  • We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.
  • Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).

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