Category

Technical Analysis

Sep 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

Crude Oil Breaking 1.5-Year Support, Failed Breakouts on $EFA $ACWX; Still Expecting More Downside

By Joe Jasper

  • The latest recessionary signal we see: WTI and Brent crude oil prices violating 1.5-year supports, only adding to our prior concerns about a weakening labor market (Sahm rule, SRI triggered)
  • We also discussed last week (August 29) how we were expecting the S&P 500, Japan’s TOPIX, and Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 to “roll over near current or marginally higher levels.”
  • Ongoing belief (since July 25) is that $ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern. All have since reacted lower.

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Sep 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

Recessionary Signals as SPX Tests Resistance; Downgrading Energy to Underweight

By Joe Jasper

  • Price action on SPX is extremely similar to prior major topping patterns in April 2000 and August 2007, which is why we recommended reducing risk near 5670-5783 last week.
  • Additional similarities to 2000/2007 (other than price action) include the Fed cutting rates, recession indicators such as the Sahm rule and Schannep Recession Indicator (SRI) triggered, and yield curve un-inverting.
  • SPX resistance is in the 5670-5783 range; if a major top is happening, that is where it would start from (using the 2000 and 2007 tops as comparisons).

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Sep 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Greenback Rebound Commodity Headwind? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Greenback Rebound Commodity Headwind?

Greenback Rebound Commodity Headwind?

By Douglas Busch

  • S&P 500 bull flagging and looks for break to upside.
  • US Dollar bounces off par. More room in the tank?
  • Copper and Natural Gas at interesting junctures. Bulls on notice. 

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Aug 31
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

Expecting Downside Ahead; Stick With Defensives; Downgrading Taiwan to Market Weight; Risk-Off Signs

By Joe Jasper

  • Rallies appear to be stalling-out near logical resistances in the largest global equity markets. That includes 5670-5783 on SPX, 2690-2700 on Japan’s TOPIX, and 4884 on Europe’s EURO STOXX 50.
  • We continue to believe these indexes will roll over near current or marginally higher levels, fitting with our ongoing belief that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1-to-4-month pullback/consolidation.
  • Long-Term uptrend violations on global indexes and continued outperformance from defensive Sectors are our top concerns for global equities, though recession indicators and a Fed cutting cycle are also concerns.

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Aug 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

Upgrading Utilities to Overweight; Expecting $SPX to Roll Over; NVDA and SMH Topping?

By Joe Jasper

  • The SPX is back near YTD highs and testing resistance in the 5670-5783 range, and we view this as an ideal time to reduce risk and shift to defensives.
  • We continue to believe that the SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation that could end up being a topping pattern.
  • After laying out expectations in our 8/13/24 Compass report for a bounce and test of YTD highs, we now expect SPX to roll over near current levels 

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Aug 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

Shift Now to Defensives; Snap-Back Rally Testing Resistance $ACWI $SPX; Neutral Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • Snap-Back rallies have continued in the largest global equity markets (U.S., Japan, and Europe).
  • Japan’s TOPIX is still below 2690-2700 and the EURO STOXX 50 is below 4884, and whether they roll over here or from marginally higher levels, lower highs remain likely.
  • It all fits with our ongoing belief (since our July 25, 2024 Int’l Compass) that MSCI ACWI is going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation (we are one month in).

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Aug 21
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

By Joe Jasper

  • We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports
  • We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.
  • Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).

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Aug 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Time To Buy China/Gold and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Time To Buy China/Gold

Time To Buy China/Gold

By Douglas Busch

  • Gold breaks above MONTHLY bull flag suggesting possible move to 3000.
  • Is China ready to duplicate prior move we witnessed in Nikkei?
  • BABA looks technically attractive and could reach par by year-end.

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Aug 14
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Discretionary to UW; 2000 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Discretionary to UW; 2000, 2007, 2022 SPX Top Similarities Suggest Test of YTD Highs

Downgrading Discretionary to UW; 2000, 2007, 2022 SPX Top Similarities Suggest Test of YTD Highs

By Joe Jasper

  • We downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral last week (8/6/24 Compass) after being bullish since early-November 2023. We still believe the SPX is going through a 1-to 4-month consolidation phase.
  • It is possible the low for this consolidation has been established within our expected pullback zone of 5100-5191 that we discussed two weeks ago (7/30/24 Compass)
  • In terms of upside, the SPX could test its YTD highs or make a marginal new high, or could also see it roll over at the 5400 or 5585 resistances.

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Aug 09
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
  • We’re shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
  • Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said “Japan’s TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse.”

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