Category

Technical Analysis

Feb 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pullback Begins; How Low Can Indexes Go?; High Yield Spreads & DXY Following Treasury Yields Higher and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Pullback Begins; How Low Can Indexes Go?; High Yield Spreads & DXY Following Treasury Yields Higher
  • US 10yr Yield (USGG10YR): We Have to Focus on the Big Picture (Multi-Year Uptrend)

Pullback Begins; How Low Can Indexes Go?; High Yield Spreads & DXY Following Treasury Yields Higher

By Joe Jasper

  • Since January, our expectation for 2023 has been for 4165 (and 4165-4200) to cap upside on the S&P 500.
  • We’ve been preaching caution with the indexes testing resistance, and we are now getting confirmation that suggests a pullback has officially begun
  • SPX, QQQ, and IWM all demonstrating false breakouts, alongside bullish inflections in Treasury yields, high yield spreads, and the U.S. dollar. Defensives also display bullish RS reversals

US 10yr Yield (USGG10YR): We Have to Focus on the Big Picture (Multi-Year Uptrend)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • USGG10YR traded in a perfectly structured downtrend from 1981 to 2020. This downtrend was clearly broken in Q2 2022, confirming a dominant multi-year uptrend.
  • A mere 38.2% retracement of the 1981/2020 downtrend targets 6.24 in the coming 1-2 years. This is our big picture outlook. February may confirm the next leg in this uptrend.

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Feb 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: A50 Sell Zone and SPX Color and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • A50 Sell Zone and SPX Color

A50 Sell Zone and SPX Color

By Thomas Schroeder

  • A50 sell res near 14,100. Hard down close followed by 3% squeeze needs some digestion off of dual MA support. Our take is to sell strength.
  • HSI is trading heavy after a muted bounce with 19,600 targeted and remains our top short.
  • SPX needs a nudge and firm close below 4,080 to induce downside momentum and tip the global cycle.

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Feb 21
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USDCNH: What Month End Close Will Confirm a Sustainable Multi-Month Uptrend with a 7.10/7.20 Target? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USDCNH: What Month End Close Will Confirm a Sustainable Multi-Month Uptrend with a 7.10/7.20 Target?
  • KIA Corp (000270 KS): Response to LT Trend Channel Resistance (78500) Is Key to a Bullish Outlook

USDCNH: What Month End Close Will Confirm a Sustainable Multi-Month Uptrend with a 7.10/7.20 Target?

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • USDCNH has delivered a most positive response to key Fibonacci support at 6.7143. February has the potential to confirm a renewed and sustainable multi-month uptrend.
  • A February month end close above 6.9213 will provide such confirmation and target 7.10/7.20 on a multi-month basis.

KIA Corp (000270 KS): Response to LT Trend Channel Resistance (78500) Is Key to a Bullish Outlook

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • The bullish response to the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 61750 in Q1 2023 has been impulsive. 
  • KIA Corp is set to challenge the top of the 2021/2023 parallel downtrend channel around 78500. A break above the channel will confirm aggressive topside targets (90000/100000).

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Feb 20
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Toshiba Bear Targets and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Toshiba Bear Targets

Toshiba Bear Targets

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Toshiba (6502) exhibits clear bear momentum as the MACD turns down from key trend resistance. A sharp draw down will set up a buying opportunity.
  • Near sell resistance to short lies at 4,450. Bear projection come in at 4,185 but the MACD coil suggests an undershoot toward 4,100.
  • Macro bet is to buy near spiked lows for a rally to 4,500 and then the bigger 5,000 barrier. Need to see sell volumes deteriorate into weakness.

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Feb 18
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Top Asia Shorts and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Top Asia Shorts

Top Asia Shorts

By Thomas Schroeder

  • After Asian indexes met targets we have now turned negative in a domino sequence.
  • Our table pounding inflationary higher USD and higher yield thesis is seeing the dollar on the move with yield in hot pursuit.
  • Bull divergence in yield and the USD warn or a multi month rise. This is just the beginning of the pain trade to unwind peak inflation and peak rate positioning.

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Feb 17
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 10-13% Decline and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 10-13% Decline

MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 10-13% Decline

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • MSTR US has rallied strongly in 2023 (+138%), peaking at a new 6 month high of 315.00 on 16 February 2023.
  • The 315.00 peak was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and new highs were quick to fail and reverse.
  • Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS < 10 at the high and justifies a further 10-13% decline in the coming 1-2 weeks.

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Feb 16
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: EM Thematic Short and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • EM Thematic Short
  • Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 8-10% Decline

EM Thematic Short

By Thomas Schroeder

  • EEM topped ahead of the DXY 101 bottom (lead) showing strong synergy with our bull DXY and bullish yield charts from last week.
  • Bull divergence implies a 2-3 month USD and yield up cycle is in store. EEM rising channel breakdown due.
  • HK was the first to crack trendline support. Korea is a weak link. India is one of the clearer shorts. Australia, Taiwan and then Japan are set to roll over.

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)
  • Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.
  • Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 8-10% Decline

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • On 7 November 2022 we published a bullish TSS / tactical recommendation in TSM US. It was trading at 62.49. TSM US rallied 13.4% in 3 days. 
  • On 15 February 2023 TSM US peaked at a new Q4/Q1 uptrend high of 98.99 amid similar extreme ST momentum failure and quickly reversed.
  • Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS < 10 at the high and justifies a further 8-10% decline in the coming 1-2 weeks.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: NDX Short to Bleed into Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • NDX Short to Bleed into Asia

NDX Short to Bleed into Asia

By Thomas Schroeder

  • NDX continues to hug lower range support after meeting the 13k short level. 12,050 is the level to break to ratchet lower to 11,800. Ultimately, new lows attract.
  • Use an uptick to add to this short and linked assets. USD strength, higher yields will weigh on tech going forward.
  • A rotational shift is due that favors a more defensive stance. 

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Feb 14
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Crompton Greaves (CGPOWER IN) – Uptrend Maintains Potential To 400/410 (+20%) In H1 2023 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Crompton Greaves (CGPOWER IN) – Uptrend Maintains Potential To 400/410 (+20%) In H1 2023
  • Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK) – 2021/2023 Downtrend – Target LT Trend – 6.92/6.94

Crompton Greaves (CGPOWER IN) – Uptrend Maintains Potential To 400/410 (+20%) In H1 2023

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • The 2020/2023 uptrend has delivered unbelievable gains. With the uptrend at historic new highs, it is difficult to identify targets and key resistance levels (using regular charts).
  • Today we turn to the quarterly LOG chart and identify 400/410 as the next major resistance level and H1 2023 target (+20%).

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK) – 2021/2023 Downtrend – Target LT Trend – 6.92/6.94

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • The 2021/2023 downtrend is accompanied by comprehensive LT momentum confirmation. The 2012/2023 uptrend support at 6.92/6.94 remains at risk of being retested in the coming 1-2 months,
  • A monthly close below 6.92/6.94 would confirm a far more significant multi-month downtrend. For now we target 6.92/6.94 (-10%). The response to 6.92/6.94 is critical to the MT outlook.

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Feb 13
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX 4 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX 4,200 Risk off Drivers

SPX 4,200 Risk off Drivers

By Thomas Schroeder

  • The stage is set for an equity/risk off decline after the SPX met our 4,200 rally objective as have Asian and European indices.
  • We are treating the DXY 101 low as a key USD turn support that will see dollar upside follow through on the back of a bullish 10 yr yield breakout.
  • Equity weakness due from mid- Feb into Q2. NDX is hovering near pivotal lows (tech/growth U/P). Scales are tipped toward new lows.

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