Category

Technical Analysis

Feb 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China Longyuan Power (916 HK) – High Probability 22% Rally Confirmed at the January Close and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • China Longyuan Power (916 HK) – High Probability 22% Rally Confirmed at the January Close
  • Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials
  • Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) – Prominent Topside Failure – Meaningful Correction Risk

China Longyuan Power (916 HK) – High Probability 22% Rally Confirmed at the January Close

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • January 2023 confirmed a high probability bullish outlook when all 3 pillars were definitively triggered. 
  • Monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has an incredible multi-year history of confirming large upswings in 916 HK. January completed the 5th such bullish confirmation since 2014. Multi-month target at 12.945. 

Caution Warranted; ACWI-US At $93 Resistance; Buys in Communications, Staples, Materials, Financials

By Joe Jasper

  • With the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) approaching the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range at $93, we see limited upside from here, and we believe caution is warranted.
  • We want to remain overweight Europe and the UK, but we prefer to buy only on pullbacks.
  • The Hang Seng and MSCI China (MCHI-US) are both getting rejected at their important resistances discussed last week, and we would expect to see a basing process develop below resistance.

Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) – Prominent Topside Failure – Meaningful Correction Risk

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Friday’s weekly close is setting up to confirm a high probability bearish outlook when all 3 pillars are definitively triggered.
  • A weekly close below 6077 will confirm a high probability multi-week to multi-month correction target in the 5415/5650 range.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Feb 01
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

By Joe Jasper

  • We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&P 500
  • And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&P 500 to cap upside
  • Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Jan 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Nifty the Clearest Short in Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Nifty the Clearest Short in Asia
  • Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

Nifty the Clearest Short in Asia

By Thomas Schroeder

  • We are lacking short ideas in Asia given we are long most markets. India presents a fresh short idea after failing at trend and price resistance.
  • The failure at trendline and 18,200 price resistance was touted as a bearish turn. We have now formed a bear flat that is set to break lower.
  • Macro: Remains bullish and we will probe for a long at 17,500/300. 19,470 is our macro bull projection.

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

By Joe Jasper

  • 2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
  • We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
  • We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Jan 27
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Nifty Index (NIFTY INDEX) Has Confirmed Multi-Month Downtrend Risk and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Nifty Index (NIFTY INDEX) Has Confirmed Multi-Month Downtrend Risk
  • Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – High Probability Target at 9450/70 in 2023 (+20%)

Nifty Index (NIFTY INDEX) Has Confirmed Multi-Month Downtrend Risk

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Every recommendation requires definitive evidence of all 3 pillars to be regarded as a high probability outcome. 
  • The Nifty Index (NIFTY INDEX) delivered upon our 3 pillars in Nov/Dec 2022. A consecutive down month in January will be further evidence of a likely 15%-18% correction.

Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – High Probability Target at 9450/70 in 2023 (+20%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • On 26 January 2023 we published our bearish multi-month Nifty Index (NIFTY INDEX) outlook. For the RV player, the Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) is likely to present material opportunity.
  • At TMA we place tremendous emphasis on momentum confirmation. Currently, LT momentum triggers confirm a sustainable multi-month to multi-quarter uptrend in the HSCEI.
  • Occasionally Fibonacci retracement levels, based off different portions of a trend, coincide. These create high probability targets. 9450/70 in the HSCEI is one such high probability target in 2023.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Jan 26
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP) Is On The Verge Of Confirming Bullish MT Trend Change and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP) Is On The Verge Of Confirming Bullish MT Trend Change

Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP) Is On The Verge Of Confirming Bullish MT Trend Change

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Every recommendation requires definitive evidence of all 3 pillars to be regarded as a high probability outcome. 
  • 5703 JP has a LT double bottom in place and comprehensive MT uptrend confirmation (weekly RSI). Only an appropriate weekly close is required this week to confirm the MT uptrend.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Jan 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Communications and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples – Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

Upgrading Communications, Downgrading Staples – Both to Market Weight; US Dollar Major Top

By Joe Jasper

  • In our January 10th Compass, we discussed a break above 3910 on SPX would signal a tradable rally, with 4100-4165 our target, the top-end of our expected 2023 trading range.
  • We believe equities are still in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area.
  • After being underweight Communications (XLC) since Nov 2021, sidestepping 20% underperformance vs. SPX, we now see signs of price and RS bottoms, and we are upgrading to market weight. Buy.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Jan 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Ethereum (XETUSD): Target Achieved in 9 Days (+19.6%) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Ethereum (XETUSD): Target Achieved in 9 Days (+19.6%)

Ethereum (XETUSD): Target Achieved in 9 Days (+19.6%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • On 12 January we published a bullish tactical recommendation in Ethereum (XETUSD).
  • We determined that Ethereum at 1400.813 was evolving into a sustainable multi-month uptrend and was likely to initially target a 19.6% upswing to 1675.58. 
  • Ethereum achieved our initial target at 1675.58 (+19.6%) on 21 January 2023.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Jan 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bitcoin (XBTUSD): Target Achieved in 5 Days (+17.4%) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bitcoin (XBTUSD): Target Achieved in 5 Days (+17.4%)

Bitcoin (XBTUSD): Target Achieved in 5 Days (+17.4%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • On 12 January we published a bullish tactical recommendation in Bitcoin (XBTUSD).
  • We determined that Bitcoin at 18281 was evolving into a sustainable multi-month uptrend and was likely to initially target a 17.4% upswing to 21469.50.
  • •Bitcoin achieved our initial target at 21469.50 (+17.4%) on 17 January 2023.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Jan 17
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Trendline to Define and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Trendline to Define
  • Tencent Reach for Sell Zone

SPX Trendline to Define

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Adjusted our SPX resistance level given overshoots with a focus on SPX futures trendline at 4,080 and price pivot at 4,100.
  • We will take this week to measure overbought conditions and sentiment. Near term upside risk to SPX trendline that defines the LT trend.
  • We have not given up on our macro bear cycle as long as trendline caps. Fine tuning top signals is the chore at hand.

Tencent Reach for Sell Zone

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Tencent faces formidable resistance at 385 that may not be seen for a while. 385 is where old lows and old highs coincide.
  • RSI is extended (ST sell and bounce). Buy volumes are descent but have been drifting since late 2022.
  • 385 a good zone to sell cash positions or short to challenge pivot supports outlined. 320 is an intermediate level to hold to keep things glued together.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Jan 13
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Weekly Close Is Likely To Confirm Sustainable Bitcoin and Ethereum Uptrends and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Close Is Likely To Confirm Sustainable Bitcoin and Ethereum Uptrends

Weekly Close Is Likely To Confirm Sustainable Bitcoin and Ethereum Uptrends

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • Today we step away from our ST / tactical TSS strategy and focus on definitive MT momentum confirmation.
  • The uptrends that have evolved since the November lows in Bitcoin and Ethereum are small relative to the 2022 declines.
  • This week is in the process of delivering definitive bullish MT momentum confirmation in both Bitcoin and Ethereum. Such an outcome will confirm a high probability multi-month uptrend bias.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free