Technical Analysis

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
The structure of the November / March decline is typical of a counter-trend correction with multiple crossovers and a lack of impulsive price action.
The past 3 weeks have seen declines quickly reversed as bullish ST momentum failures plague these attempted declines. A weekly close above 22299 will confirm a likely MT uptrend renewal.

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Mar 08

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055 HK) – LT Charts Delivering Potential for a 20%+ Uptrend in 2023 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055 HK) – LT Charts Delivering Potential for a 20%+ Uptrend in 2023
Still Expecting 4165-4200 on S&P 500 to Cap Upside; Buys Within Insurance and Steel/Metals

China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055 HK) – LT Charts Delivering Potential for a 20%+ Uptrend in 2023

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
The 2021/2023 period has produced definitive evidence of bullish LT trend change. We see this in both trend structure and also LT momentum triggers.
Since 2015, peaks have been in the 8.50/11.00 range. Conservatively, the 2023 uptrend targets the top of the parallel uptrend channel in the 7.25/7.45 range (20%+), likely in H2 2023.

Still Expecting 4165-4200 on S&P 500 to Cap Upside; Buys Within Insurance and Steel/Metals

SPX is holding above its 200-day MA/3940 coinciding with its prior downtrend from 2022 near 3915; 3915-3940 remains critical support, and is the gateway to a much deeper pullback.
Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is breaking back above $297, another important line in the sand for us.
The SPX holding at 3915-3940 could be the spark that allows another run toward YTD highs, but we continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&P 500.

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Mar 07

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: International Business Machines Corp (IBM US) – TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 6-7% Upswing and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

International Business Machines Corp (IBM US) – TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 6-7% Upswing

International Business Machines Corp (IBM US) – TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 6-7% Upswing

IBM US peaked at 153.21 in December 2022 and has declined more than 15% in the subsequent 12 weeks.
Last week’s low of 127.71 was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and this new 4 month low was quick to fail and reverse.
Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS < 10 at the low and justifies a further 6-7% upswing in the coming 1-2 weeks.

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Mar 06

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: EEM Reaction Rise and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

EEM Reaction Rise

EEM Reaction Rise

EEM stage is set for a rise from 38.20/37.80 but will find it hard to get back above 42. Intermediate risk to 36.50 from which point we are more constructive.
USD and yield pullbacks are primary inputs amid weak EEM buy volume. Bull yield wedge breakout on the back of high degree bull divergence in yield and the USD.
DXY trendline support turn. USD rise has not been aggressive and needs yield to clear 4.25% with a 4.70% target. Risk of a dual yield top exists.

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Mar 04

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.
Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.
As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective

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Mar 02

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSI Fresh Short Zone – Taiwan Bullish on Dip and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

HSI Fresh Short Zone – Taiwan Bullish on Dip
Gold (XAU) – Potential to Confirm a Renewed MT Uptrend at the Weekly Close
Signs Point to More Downside Ahead; Breadth Deteriorating; Buys in Home Furnishings and Shippers

HSI Fresh Short Zone – Taiwan Bullish on Dip

A tale of two very different tapes with the HSI our top short on this bounce and Taiwan holds firm with trendline buy support as our top long in Asia.
At this juncture Asia remains mixed but increasing downside pressure will emerge after the SPX bounce terminates and brings into play a harder down leg.
HSI 21k resistance to short. Taiwan trend, price and dual moving average support lies at 14,900/700 with RSI buy support to align.

Gold (XAU) – Potential to Confirm a Renewed MT Uptrend at the Weekly Close

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
Gold retraced almost 50% of its aggressive Q4/Q1 uptrend in the past 4-5 weeks. The correction has bottomed at critical MT support.
The weekly close has the potential to deliver a bullish MT reversal pattern this week and likely set up the next phase of the MT uptrend, targeting 2070/75.

Signs Point to More Downside Ahead; Breadth Deteriorating; Buys in Home Furnishings and Shippers

In last week’s Compass (Feb. 22) we discussed our belief that a pullback has begun, and signs continue to point to more downside ahead on the broad market indexes
There has been four failed attempts to reclaim $190 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and $297 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last five trading days.
These remain important lines in the sand moving forward. Attractive stocks: TPX, LZB, SNBR, ETD, HOFT, FLXS, KEX, SBLK, CMRE, DAC, EGLE, GNK, ASC, GSL, DSX, SB, NM, EURN, more

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Feb 28

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): 12.4% Profit Target Achieved in 5 Days and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): 12.4% Profit Target Achieved in 5 Days
Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) – 8.2% Profit Target at 5415/5650 Achieved in 3 Weeks
Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – Is Q1 2023 a Correction that Mirrors the Correction of Q1 2009?

MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): 12.4% Profit Target Achieved in 5 Days

TSS or “Trend Sustainability Score” is our proprietary momentum based tactical methodology. TSS has a proven record of identifying the exhaustion points in interim trends.
On 17 February 2023 TSS identified exhaustion in the MSTR US uptrend and targeted a minimum 10% reversal in 1-2 weeks.
On 24 February 2023 MSTR US completed a 12.4% reversal from 284.03 to 248.87.

Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) – 8.2% Profit Target at 5415/5650 Achieved in 3 Weeks

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
On 3 February 2023 we identified a material topside failure in RIO LN and pending high probability multi-week to multi-month decline into the 5415/5650 range.
RIO LN declined from 6064 on 3 February to a low of 5568 on 27 February, a decline of 8.2%. Target achieved.

Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – Is Q1 2023 a Correction that Mirrors the Correction of Q1 2009?

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
The HSCEI has produced 2 material failures below 5000 in the last 17 years, in October 2008 and October 2022. Aggressive bullish multi-month reversals followed in both cases.
The 2008 upswing paused when a bearish monthly reversal pattern was delivered in January 2009, but only for 2 months. The bearish monthly reversal pattern in February 2023 appears similar.

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Feb 27

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Sembcorp Marine Buy Target/Support and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Sembcorp Marine Buy Target/Support

Sembcorp Marine Buy Target/Support

Sembcorp Marine shows interesting bull support at 0.12 where price and trendline meet but does face global cycle headwinds in March. Sell near term above 14.
MACD trendline support under pressure and a must hold level for the bull case. An MACD would spell trouble for price.
Current weakness if viewed as a pullback after the May to June bull triangle breakout. 11 is the key pivot level to hold.

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Feb 25

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: WTI Bear Triangle a Growth Negative and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

WTI Bear Triangle a Growth Negative
MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities
Tencent Short Cover Target

WTI Bear Triangle a Growth Negative

WTI’s bearish flat/triangle is setting up to break lower and a harbinger of weaker growth in coming months amid a stronger USD.
Bearish oil also gels with our stronger dollar and weaker demand view. It will also bring energy shares back to earth.
New low targets at 69 and 65 then review for a tactical recovery attempt.

MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities

In our latest int’l reports we have preached caution, and since January we have discussed our expectations for $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US
Thus far, $93 has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and ACWI-US now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun.
We would expect this pullback to continue down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low). Even $75-77 (the 2022 lows) is not out of the question.

Tencent Short Cover Target

Tencent faced formidable resistance at 385 where old lows and old highs coincided and was our short level outlined on January 17.
300 is our base line downside target. March will be a bearish month. Buy zone at sub-300.
Macro is constructive if 270 holds. Current decline is labeled a deep correction of the October to late January rally.

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Feb 24

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Range Ahead of Next Leg Down and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

SPX Range Ahead of Next Leg Down

SPX Range Ahead of Next Leg Down