Category

Technical Analysis

Feb 18
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Top Asia Shorts and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Top Asia Shorts

Top Asia Shorts

By Thomas Schroeder

  • After Asian indexes met targets we have now turned negative in a domino sequence.
  • Our table pounding inflationary higher USD and higher yield thesis is seeing the dollar on the move with yield in hot pursuit.
  • Bull divergence in yield and the USD warn or a multi month rise. This is just the beginning of the pain trade to unwind peak inflation and peak rate positioning.

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Feb 17
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 10-13% Decline and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 10-13% Decline

MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 10-13% Decline

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • MSTR US has rallied strongly in 2023 (+138%), peaking at a new 6 month high of 315.00 on 16 February 2023.
  • The 315.00 peak was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and new highs were quick to fail and reverse.
  • Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS < 10 at the high and justifies a further 10-13% decline in the coming 1-2 weeks.

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Feb 16
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: EM Thematic Short and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • EM Thematic Short
  • Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 8-10% Decline

EM Thematic Short

By Thomas Schroeder

  • EEM topped ahead of the DXY 101 bottom (lead) showing strong synergy with our bull DXY and bullish yield charts from last week.
  • Bull divergence implies a 2-3 month USD and yield up cycle is in store. EEM rising channel breakdown due.
  • HK was the first to crack trendline support. Korea is a weak link. India is one of the clearer shorts. Australia, Taiwan and then Japan are set to roll over.

Treasury Yields Reversing Higher; U.S. Dollar and High Yield Spreads to Follow?

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to expect the 4165-4200 level to cap upside on the S&P 500, but cannot rule out a trip to 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs)
  • Either way, we continue to preach caution and believe that upside is limited on the market indexes.
  • Treasury yields are starting to reverse above multi-month downtrends, and we are monitoring for similar reversals on the U.S. dollar (DXY) and high yield spreads.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSM US): TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 8-10% Decline

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • On 7 November 2022 we published a bullish TSS / tactical recommendation in TSM US. It was trading at 62.49. TSM US rallied 13.4% in 3 days. 
  • On 15 February 2023 TSM US peaked at a new Q4/Q1 uptrend high of 98.99 amid similar extreme ST momentum failure and quickly reversed.
  • Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS < 10 at the high and justifies a further 8-10% decline in the coming 1-2 weeks.

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Feb 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: NDX Short to Bleed into Asia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • NDX Short to Bleed into Asia

NDX Short to Bleed into Asia

By Thomas Schroeder

  • NDX continues to hug lower range support after meeting the 13k short level. 12,050 is the level to break to ratchet lower to 11,800. Ultimately, new lows attract.
  • Use an uptick to add to this short and linked assets. USD strength, higher yields will weigh on tech going forward.
  • A rotational shift is due that favors a more defensive stance. 

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Feb 14
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Crompton Greaves (CGPOWER IN) – Uptrend Maintains Potential To 400/410 (+20%) In H1 2023 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Crompton Greaves (CGPOWER IN) – Uptrend Maintains Potential To 400/410 (+20%) In H1 2023
  • Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK) – 2021/2023 Downtrend – Target LT Trend – 6.92/6.94

Crompton Greaves (CGPOWER IN) – Uptrend Maintains Potential To 400/410 (+20%) In H1 2023

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • The 2020/2023 uptrend has delivered unbelievable gains. With the uptrend at historic new highs, it is difficult to identify targets and key resistance levels (using regular charts).
  • Today we turn to the quarterly LOG chart and identify 400/410 as the next major resistance level and H1 2023 target (+20%).

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK) – 2021/2023 Downtrend – Target LT Trend – 6.92/6.94

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • The 2021/2023 downtrend is accompanied by comprehensive LT momentum confirmation. The 2012/2023 uptrend support at 6.92/6.94 remains at risk of being retested in the coming 1-2 months,
  • A monthly close below 6.92/6.94 would confirm a far more significant multi-month downtrend. For now we target 6.92/6.94 (-10%). The response to 6.92/6.94 is critical to the MT outlook.

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Feb 13
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX 4 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX 4,200 Risk off Drivers

SPX 4,200 Risk off Drivers

By Thomas Schroeder

  • The stage is set for an equity/risk off decline after the SPX met our 4,200 rally objective as have Asian and European indices.
  • We are treating the DXY 101 low as a key USD turn support that will see dollar upside follow through on the back of a bullish 10 yr yield breakout.
  • Equity weakness due from mid- Feb into Q2. NDX is hovering near pivotal lows (tech/growth U/P). Scales are tipped toward new lows.

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Feb 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – ST Technical Triggers Imply 8.5% Tactical Opportunity and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – ST Technical Triggers Imply 8.5% Tactical Opportunity

China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – ST Technical Triggers Imply 8.5% Tactical Opportunity

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Bullish price action and LT momentum failure in Oct/Nov 2023 could be compared to holding a fully inflated balloon under water. Eventually it must rise. 
  • January 2023 delivered that spike and a recent correction and multi-day test of key support has delivered an impulsive positive price response today. Target an 8.5% tactical upswing towards 63.90.

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Feb 09
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP) – LT Momentum Confirms Material Upside Potential in 2023 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP) – LT Momentum Confirms Material Upside Potential in 2023

Sumitomo Electric Industries (5802 JP) – LT Momentum Confirms Material Upside Potential in 2023

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Q1 2023 is confirming that the base built around the historically significant 50 quarter MA since Q3 2021 is likely to be a material LT bottom.
  • Both price action and LT momentum triggers (particularly the quarterly RSI) are confirming a sustainable LT uptrend in 2023 and potentially well into 2024. Potential 20% upswing.

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Feb 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

By Joe Jasper

  • Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&P 500.
  • There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).
  • We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.

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Feb 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USDJPY – Is USDJPY Confirming a Return to the Long-Term Uptrend? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USDJPY – Is USDJPY Confirming a Return to the Long-Term Uptrend?
  • EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) — Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106
  • Zhejiang HangKe Technology-A (688006 CH) – Confirming a Tradeable Bullish Multi-Month Opportunity

USDJPY – Is USDJPY Confirming a Return to the Long-Term Uptrend?

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Last week delivered a host of bullish MT USD reversal patterns across USD/G10 and USD/Asia pairs.
  • USDJPY has responded impulsively to critical LT support around 127.50. February has the potential to confirm a return to the multi-year uptrend with aggressive targets around 175/180.

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) — Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

By Joe Jasper

  • The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
  • As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
  • China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.

Zhejiang HangKe Technology-A (688006 CH) – Confirming a Tradeable Bullish Multi-Month Opportunity

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • January completed a bullish 3 month reversal pattern in 688006 CH and thus confirmed a likely MT bottom.
  • 688006 CH has had an incredible pivotal relationship with its 50 week MA since 2020. A weekly close above the 50 week MA will confirm a high probability MT uptrend.

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