Category

Technical Analysis

Mar 24
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK) – 9.1% Profit Target Achieved in 3-4 Weeks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK) – 9.1% Profit Target Achieved in 3-4 Weeks

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK) – 9.1% Profit Target Achieved in 3-4 Weeks

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • On 14 February 2023 we published a bearish recommendation in  Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK), targeting a 9.1% multi-week decline in Q1 2023.
  • 2208 HK declined from 7.62 on 14 February to 6.94 on 10 March (19 trading days), a decline of 9.1%. 

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Mar 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Tencent 331 Support Pressure and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent 331 Support Pressure
  • Wharf Real Estate Investment Co Ltd (1997 HK) – Pending Confirmation of 12% Multi-Month Uptrend

Tencent 331 Support Pressure

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our Tencent sell from 385 has formed a flat range with a bias to pressure the 331 pivot support to reach our 300-305 buy (cover) target.
  • The descending wedge or channel is the dominant chart pattern that will drive the medium term trend. Global and HK bear pressure will influence Tencent near term.
  • From the 300 support zone we see a better macro set up that will see the bull wedge mature and break higher once summer turbulence subsides.

Wharf Real Estate Investment Co Ltd (1997 HK) – Pending Confirmation of 12% Multi-Month Uptrend

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • The 2018/2020 downtrend was broken in December 2022. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction and opportunity to enter the uptrend at improved entry levels.
  • March has the potential to complete a bullish monthly reversal pattern upon a month end close above 44.89 and confirm a likely multi-month 12% uptrend towards 50.67. 

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Mar 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

By Joe Jasper

  • Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&P 500.
  • The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).
  • The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.

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Mar 21
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Meituan Tactical Slide into Our Buy Zone and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Meituan Tactical Slide into Our Buy Zone

Meituan Tactical Slide into Our Buy Zone

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Macro trend remains challenging for Meituan over the summer. We see a tactical short out of triangulation and view a new low as a turn and buy signal.
  • RSI bull divergence support a series of tactical rally sequences off of a new low, but macro headwinds will cap over the summer.
  • Bull set up at lower expanding wedge support with wedge resistance coming in near 140. 

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Mar 20
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Macro Bear into the Summer and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Macro Bear into the Summer
  • Risk: Should Move to Another Coliseum

SPX Macro Bear into the Summer

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX low due near March 27 that sets up a recovery sequence into April. Macro remains bearish into the summer months where financial sector risk is to resurface.
  • Weekly MACD set to roll over from reliable resistance after the 4,000 rejection on the daily chart.
  • USD holding firm in Asia and EM due to pending risk aversion. Euro rise is corrective in nature.

Risk: Should Move to Another Coliseum

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The UBS takeover of Credit Suisse was announced for $ 3.25 billion below Friday’s closing market capitalization of $7.87 billion.
  • SNB will take the first loss of $9.7 billion and provide $100 billion of liquidity.
  • Central Bank support triggers Credit Suisse AT1 capital write-downs of approximately $17.

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Mar 18
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Longs on Next Low and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Longs on Next Low
  • Global Pullback Continues; Focus on Defensives: Buys in Staples, Utilities, Precious Metals Miners

Longs on Next Low

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX and NKY top short picks near term but new low attempts will see the immediate down leg exhaust. Yield decline is exhausting.
  • Increasing oversold readings set the stage for some key low on weakness. Euro bank range is 92 to 108.
  • Taiwan remains our top long in Asia. Trading bounce lows in ASX, Korea and Europe look attractive/viable.

Global Pullback Continues; Focus on Defensives: Buys in Staples, Utilities, Precious Metals Miners

By Joe Jasper

  • On March 2 we discussed how the pullback in global equities was in full swing as Europe/UK indexes displayed 4.5-month uptrend breaks, joining the pullback in the MSCI ACWI.
  • At the time, we expected this pullback in the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) to move down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low) or $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
  • ACWI-US broke below $86 and is approaching $84. $84 will be an important support level to monitor, but if it breaks, the $75-77 level is still firmly in the cards.

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Mar 16
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – Target Achieved – 8.75% Profit in 15 Trading Days and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – Target Achieved – 8.75% Profit in 15 Trading Days

China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – Target Achieved – 8.75% Profit in 15 Trading Days

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • On 9 February 2023 we published a bullish recommendation in China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK), targeting an 8.75% multi-week rally in Q1 2023.
  • 291 HK rallied from 58.75 on 9 February to 63.90 on 7 March (15 trading days), a rise of  8.75%. Target achieved on 7 March 2023.  

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Mar 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Nikkei and Nifty Shorts Hitting Bear Targets and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei and Nifty Shorts Hitting Bear Targets

Nikkei and Nifty Shorts Hitting Bear Targets

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Japan became a top laggard short bet above 28,000 given our call for a domino roll. Nikkei 26,900 was our initial downside target with a primary target of 26,000. 
  • India’s short from 18,000 is meeting the overshoot target at 17,100 with 16,800 a level to cover if not look for a tradable bounce. 17,700-800 is fresh sell resistance.
  • SPX weakness was the call from March 6-20 so we may be seeing up for some recovery actvity in Asia after the 20th but will face headwinds come June.

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Mar 13
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China Real Estate and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • China Real Estate

China Real Estate

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • As a background, can I refer the reader to Substack Note No One Cares 有中国特色 Real Estate Liquidity Spiral to Solvency Challenge 31st October 2022 ?
  • It bottoms ticked recovery in the highly leveraged Real estate Index Hang Seng Mainland Property Index (HSPMI) and rallied 103% from trough to peak 27th January 2023.
  • The mainland listed Index CSI 300 Real estate (CSI300RE) trough (1st November) to peak (27th November) was 43.5%.

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Mar 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Targets and Post NFP Surprises and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Targets and Post NFP Surprises

SPX Targets and Post NFP Surprises

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Bearish from SPX 4,060-80. Near resistance at 4,020 was used to add to shorts. Downside surprise due this week on break of 3.900.
  • Key support breaks amid systemic risk saw us raise our net short going into this more turbulent period that should wrap up near the 20th. Started shorting in Feb.
  • Added Japan to our short list being a laggard. Once laggards buckle we will be closer to a short term low.

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