Technical Analysis

It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.
Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.
As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective

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Mar 02

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSI Fresh Short Zone – Taiwan Bullish on Dip and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

HSI Fresh Short Zone – Taiwan Bullish on Dip
Gold (XAU) – Potential to Confirm a Renewed MT Uptrend at the Weekly Close
Signs Point to More Downside Ahead; Breadth Deteriorating; Buys in Home Furnishings and Shippers

HSI Fresh Short Zone – Taiwan Bullish on Dip

A tale of two very different tapes with the HSI our top short on this bounce and Taiwan holds firm with trendline buy support as our top long in Asia.
At this juncture Asia remains mixed but increasing downside pressure will emerge after the SPX bounce terminates and brings into play a harder down leg.
HSI 21k resistance to short. Taiwan trend, price and dual moving average support lies at 14,900/700 with RSI buy support to align.

Gold (XAU) – Potential to Confirm a Renewed MT Uptrend at the Weekly Close

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
Gold retraced almost 50% of its aggressive Q4/Q1 uptrend in the past 4-5 weeks. The correction has bottomed at critical MT support.
The weekly close has the potential to deliver a bullish MT reversal pattern this week and likely set up the next phase of the MT uptrend, targeting 2070/75.

Signs Point to More Downside Ahead; Breadth Deteriorating; Buys in Home Furnishings and Shippers

In last week’s Compass (Feb. 22) we discussed our belief that a pullback has begun, and signs continue to point to more downside ahead on the broad market indexes
There has been four failed attempts to reclaim $190 on the Russell 2000 (IWM) and $297 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) over the last five trading days.
These remain important lines in the sand moving forward. Attractive stocks: TPX, LZB, SNBR, ETD, HOFT, FLXS, KEX, SBLK, CMRE, DAC, EGLE, GNK, ASC, GSL, DSX, SB, NM, EURN, more

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Feb 28

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): 12.4% Profit Target Achieved in 5 Days and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): 12.4% Profit Target Achieved in 5 Days
Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) – 8.2% Profit Target at 5415/5650 Achieved in 3 Weeks
Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – Is Q1 2023 a Correction that Mirrors the Correction of Q1 2009?

MicroStrategy Inc (MSTR US): 12.4% Profit Target Achieved in 5 Days

TSS or “Trend Sustainability Score” is our proprietary momentum based tactical methodology. TSS has a proven record of identifying the exhaustion points in interim trends.
On 17 February 2023 TSS identified exhaustion in the MSTR US uptrend and targeted a minimum 10% reversal in 1-2 weeks.
On 24 February 2023 MSTR US completed a 12.4% reversal from 284.03 to 248.87.

Rio Tinto PLC (RIO LN) – 8.2% Profit Target at 5415/5650 Achieved in 3 Weeks

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
On 3 February 2023 we identified a material topside failure in RIO LN and pending high probability multi-week to multi-month decline into the 5415/5650 range.
RIO LN declined from 6064 on 3 February to a low of 5568 on 27 February, a decline of 8.2%. Target achieved.

Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – Is Q1 2023 a Correction that Mirrors the Correction of Q1 2009?

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
The HSCEI has produced 2 material failures below 5000 in the last 17 years, in October 2008 and October 2022. Aggressive bullish multi-month reversals followed in both cases.
The 2008 upswing paused when a bearish monthly reversal pattern was delivered in January 2009, but only for 2 months. The bearish monthly reversal pattern in February 2023 appears similar.

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Feb 27

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Sembcorp Marine Buy Target/Support and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Sembcorp Marine Buy Target/Support

Sembcorp Marine Buy Target/Support

Sembcorp Marine shows interesting bull support at 0.12 where price and trendline meet but does face global cycle headwinds in March. Sell near term above 14.
MACD trendline support under pressure and a must hold level for the bull case. An MACD would spell trouble for price.
Current weakness if viewed as a pullback after the May to June bull triangle breakout. 11 is the key pivot level to hold.

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Feb 25

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: WTI Bear Triangle a Growth Negative and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

WTI Bear Triangle a Growth Negative
MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities
Tencent Short Cover Target

WTI Bear Triangle a Growth Negative

WTI’s bearish flat/triangle is setting up to break lower and a harbinger of weaker growth in coming months amid a stronger USD.
Bearish oil also gels with our stronger dollar and weaker demand view. It will also bring energy shares back to earth.
New low targets at 69 and 65 then review for a tactical recovery attempt.

MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities

In our latest int’l reports we have preached caution, and since January we have discussed our expectations for $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US
Thus far, $93 has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and ACWI-US now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun.
We would expect this pullback to continue down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low). Even $75-77 (the 2022 lows) is not out of the question.

Tencent Short Cover Target

Tencent faced formidable resistance at 385 where old lows and old highs coincided and was our short level outlined on January 17.
300 is our base line downside target. March will be a bearish month. Buy zone at sub-300.
Macro is constructive if 270 holds. Current decline is labeled a deep correction of the October to late January rally.

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Feb 24

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Range Ahead of Next Leg Down and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

SPX Range Ahead of Next Leg Down

SPX Range Ahead of Next Leg Down

SPX 3,980 is where a mild bounce should unfold. 4,060 sell resistance then the set-up calls for a break below 3,980 to test lower targets.
This next leg down will cause more damage in EM/Asia and Europe. MACD on the verge of an ugly break below the “0” acceleration line.
US 10yr yield dip is a buy for a push above the 3.95% pivot resistance with new highs in store.

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Feb 23

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pullback Begins; How Low Can Indexes Go?; High Yield Spreads & DXY Following Treasury Yields Higher and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Pullback Begins; How Low Can Indexes Go?; High Yield Spreads & DXY Following Treasury Yields Higher
US 10yr Yield (USGG10YR): We Have to Focus on the Big Picture (Multi-Year Uptrend)

Pullback Begins; How Low Can Indexes Go?; High Yield Spreads & DXY Following Treasury Yields Higher

Since January, our expectation for 2023 has been for 4165 (and 4165-4200) to cap upside on the S&P 500.
We’ve been preaching caution with the indexes testing resistance, and we are now getting confirmation that suggests a pullback has officially begun
SPX, QQQ, and IWM all demonstrating false breakouts, alongside bullish inflections in Treasury yields, high yield spreads, and the U.S. dollar. Defensives also display bullish RS reversals

US 10yr Yield (USGG10YR): We Have to Focus on the Big Picture (Multi-Year Uptrend)

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
USGG10YR traded in a perfectly structured downtrend from 1981 to 2020. This downtrend was clearly broken in Q2 2022, confirming a dominant multi-year uptrend.
A mere 38.2% retracement of the 1981/2020 downtrend targets 6.24 in the coming 1-2 years. This is our big picture outlook. February may confirm the next leg in this uptrend.

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Feb 22

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: A50 Sell Zone and SPX Color and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

A50 Sell Zone and SPX Color

A50 Sell Zone and SPX Color

A50 sell res near 14,100. Hard down close followed by 3% squeeze needs some digestion off of dual MA support. Our take is to sell strength.
HSI is trading heavy after a muted bounce with 19,600 targeted and remains our top short.
SPX needs a nudge and firm close below 4,080 to induce downside momentum and tip the global cycle.

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Feb 21

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USDCNH: What Month End Close Will Confirm a Sustainable Multi-Month Uptrend with a 7.10/7.20 Target? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

USDCNH: What Month End Close Will Confirm a Sustainable Multi-Month Uptrend with a 7.10/7.20 Target?
KIA Corp (000270 KS): Response to LT Trend Channel Resistance (78500) Is Key to a Bullish Outlook

USDCNH: What Month End Close Will Confirm a Sustainable Multi-Month Uptrend with a 7.10/7.20 Target?

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
USDCNH has delivered a most positive response to key Fibonacci support at 6.7143. February has the potential to confirm a renewed and sustainable multi-month uptrend.
A February month end close above 6.9213 will provide such confirmation and target 7.10/7.20 on a multi-month basis.

KIA Corp (000270 KS): Response to LT Trend Channel Resistance (78500) Is Key to a Bullish Outlook

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
The bullish response to the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 61750 in Q1 2023 has been impulsive.
KIA Corp is set to challenge the top of the 2021/2023 parallel downtrend channel around 78500. A break above the channel will confirm aggressive topside targets (90000/100000).

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Feb 20

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Toshiba Bear Targets and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Toshiba Bear Targets

Toshiba Bear Targets