Category

Technical Analysis

Mar 20
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Macro Bear into the Summer and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Macro Bear into the Summer
  • Risk: Should Move to Another Coliseum

SPX Macro Bear into the Summer

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX low due near March 27 that sets up a recovery sequence into April. Macro remains bearish into the summer months where financial sector risk is to resurface.
  • Weekly MACD set to roll over from reliable resistance after the 4,000 rejection on the daily chart.
  • USD holding firm in Asia and EM due to pending risk aversion. Euro rise is corrective in nature.

Risk: Should Move to Another Coliseum

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The UBS takeover of Credit Suisse was announced for $ 3.25 billion below Friday’s closing market capitalization of $7.87 billion.
  • SNB will take the first loss of $9.7 billion and provide $100 billion of liquidity.
  • Central Bank support triggers Credit Suisse AT1 capital write-downs of approximately $17.

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Mar 18
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Longs on Next Low and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Longs on Next Low
  • Global Pullback Continues; Focus on Defensives: Buys in Staples, Utilities, Precious Metals Miners

Longs on Next Low

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX and NKY top short picks near term but new low attempts will see the immediate down leg exhaust. Yield decline is exhausting.
  • Increasing oversold readings set the stage for some key low on weakness. Euro bank range is 92 to 108.
  • Taiwan remains our top long in Asia. Trading bounce lows in ASX, Korea and Europe look attractive/viable.

Global Pullback Continues; Focus on Defensives: Buys in Staples, Utilities, Precious Metals Miners

By Joe Jasper

  • On March 2 we discussed how the pullback in global equities was in full swing as Europe/UK indexes displayed 4.5-month uptrend breaks, joining the pullback in the MSCI ACWI.
  • At the time, we expected this pullback in the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) to move down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low) or $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
  • ACWI-US broke below $86 and is approaching $84. $84 will be an important support level to monitor, but if it breaks, the $75-77 level is still firmly in the cards.

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Mar 16
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – Target Achieved – 8.75% Profit in 15 Trading Days and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – Target Achieved – 8.75% Profit in 15 Trading Days

China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK) – Target Achieved – 8.75% Profit in 15 Trading Days

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • On 9 February 2023 we published a bullish recommendation in China Resources Beer Holdings (291 HK), targeting an 8.75% multi-week rally in Q1 2023.
  • 291 HK rallied from 58.75 on 9 February to 63.90 on 7 March (15 trading days), a rise of  8.75%. Target achieved on 7 March 2023.  

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Mar 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Nikkei and Nifty Shorts Hitting Bear Targets and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Nikkei and Nifty Shorts Hitting Bear Targets

Nikkei and Nifty Shorts Hitting Bear Targets

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Japan became a top laggard short bet above 28,000 given our call for a domino roll. Nikkei 26,900 was our initial downside target with a primary target of 26,000. 
  • India’s short from 18,000 is meeting the overshoot target at 17,100 with 16,800 a level to cover if not look for a tradable bounce. 17,700-800 is fresh sell resistance.
  • SPX weakness was the call from March 6-20 so we may be seeing up for some recovery actvity in Asia after the 20th but will face headwinds come June.

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Mar 13
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China Real Estate and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • China Real Estate

China Real Estate

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • As a background, can I refer the reader to Substack Note No One Cares 有中国特色 Real Estate Liquidity Spiral to Solvency Challenge 31st October 2022 ?
  • It bottoms ticked recovery in the highly leveraged Real estate Index Hang Seng Mainland Property Index (HSPMI) and rallied 103% from trough to peak 27th January 2023.
  • The mainland listed Index CSI 300 Real estate (CSI300RE) trough (1st November) to peak (27th November) was 43.5%.

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Mar 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Targets and Post NFP Surprises and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Targets and Post NFP Surprises

SPX Targets and Post NFP Surprises

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Bearish from SPX 4,060-80. Near resistance at 4,020 was used to add to shorts. Downside surprise due this week on break of 3.900.
  • Key support breaks amid systemic risk saw us raise our net short going into this more turbulent period that should wrap up near the 20th. Started shorting in Feb.
  • Added Japan to our short list being a laggard. Once laggards buckle we will be closer to a short term low.

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Mar 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Lasertec Corp (6920 JP) – Bullish ST Momentum Failures  – 4 Month Correction May Be Done and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Lasertec Corp (6920 JP) – Bullish ST Momentum Failures  – 4 Month Correction May Be Done

Lasertec Corp (6920 JP) – Bullish ST Momentum Failures  – 4 Month Correction May Be Done

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • The structure of the November / March decline is typical of a counter-trend correction with multiple crossovers and a lack of impulsive price action.
  • The past 3 weeks have seen declines quickly reversed as bullish ST momentum failures plague these attempted declines. A weekly close above 22299 will confirm a likely MT uptrend renewal.

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Mar 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055 HK) – LT Charts Delivering Potential for a 20%+ Uptrend in 2023 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055 HK) – LT Charts Delivering Potential for a 20%+ Uptrend in 2023
  • Still Expecting 4165-4200 on S&P 500 to Cap Upside; Buys Within Insurance and Steel/Metals

China Southern Airlines Co Ltd (1055 HK) – LT Charts Delivering Potential for a 20%+ Uptrend in 2023

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • The 2021/2023 period has produced definitive evidence of bullish LT trend change. We see this in both trend structure and also LT momentum triggers.
  • Since 2015, peaks have been in the 8.50/11.00 range. Conservatively, the 2023 uptrend targets the top of the parallel uptrend channel in the 7.25/7.45 range (20%+), likely in H2 2023.  

Still Expecting 4165-4200 on S&P 500 to Cap Upside; Buys Within Insurance and Steel/Metals

By Joe Jasper

  • SPX is holding above its 200-day MA/3940 coinciding with its prior downtrend from 2022 near 3915; 3915-3940 remains critical support, and is the gateway to a much deeper pullback.
  • Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is breaking back above $297, another important line in the sand for us.
  • The SPX holding at 3915-3940 could be the spark that allows another run toward YTD highs, but we continue to expect 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&P 500.

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Mar 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: International Business Machines Corp (IBM US) – TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 6-7% Upswing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • International Business Machines Corp (IBM US) – TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 6-7% Upswing

International Business Machines Corp (IBM US) – TSS < 10 - Target Tactical 6-7% Upswing

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • IBM US peaked at 153.21 in December 2022 and has declined more than 15% in the subsequent 12 weeks.
  • Last week’s low of 127.71 was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and this new 4 month low was quick to fail and reverse.
  • Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS < 10 at the low and justifies a further 6-7% upswing in the coming 1-2 weeks.

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Mar 06
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: EEM Reaction Rise and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • EEM Reaction Rise

EEM Reaction Rise

By Thomas Schroeder

  • EEM stage is set for a rise from 38.20/37.80 but will find it hard to get back above 42. Intermediate risk to 36.50 from which point we are more constructive.
  • USD and yield pullbacks are primary inputs amid weak EEM buy volume. Bull yield wedge breakout on the back of high degree bull divergence in yield and the USD.
  • DXY trendline support turn. USD rise has not been aggressive and needs yield to clear 4.25% with a 4.70% target. Risk of a dual yield top exists.

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