Category

Technical Analysis

Apr 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX 4 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX 4,100 Bull Turn

SPX 4,100 Bull Turn

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX met the 4,100 long target and NDX turned higher off of 13,000 support that are expected to induce a secondary April rally.
  • A push back toward SPX 4,200 will put the final touches on the buoyant April recovery cycle toward SPX 4,200/20. There is risk the rally falters below 4,200.
  • US 10yr yield hovering above 3.20% lower wedge support per call for an undershoot below 3.35%. 

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Apr 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

By Joe Jasper

  • As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.
  • MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).
  • This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe

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Apr 06
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Asia Long and Short Positioning and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Long and Short Positioning
  • Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988 HK) – Initial Upswing Is Correcting Lower – Testing Key MA Support

Asia Long and Short Positioning

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Taiwan has been our top long but showing momentum deterioration. ASX and Kospi met rally targets to finesse a dip and secondary push. HSI long struggling. Short near 21,000.
  • Japan and India are our immediate short plays. NKY dip and rally with bigger top due at 28,500.
  • April is a bullish month but once the buoyant cycle terminates, we will turn more aggressive on the short side (NKY, HSI, Korea and even Taiwan is on our radar.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988 HK) – Initial Upswing Is Correcting Lower – Testing Key MA Support

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • This week’s decline is deemed counter-trend and is in stark conflict with the bullish MT and LT triggers detailed in our bullish publication on 29 March 2023.
  • Key support levels often combine a number of important moving averages.  92.00/94.50 combines the 20/50 week MA’s / 12/26 week EMA’s. High risk MT bottom at 92.00/94.50. Target 118.50.

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Apr 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: $SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • $SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

By Joe Jasper

  • On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.
  • The S&P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.
  • We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 — with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible — but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.

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Apr 04
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD Divisions – AUD Bearish and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USD Divisions – AUD Bearish
  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) – Bullish LT Uptrend Confirmation in Q1 2023 Implies 15-25% Upside

USD Divisions – AUD Bearish

By Thomas Schroeder

  • AUD and NZD bear patterns stand out versus the Euro’s rebound which is at the top end of the range as the DXY finds a foothold at 102/101.
  • Sterling met our 1.24 rally objective where we reversed to short. USD/JPY rise from 130 reaching for 134. USD/ZAR near our buy zone.
  • Yield basing needed to support any sort of meaningful USD rise (DXY 104 near resistance) but there are tradable patterns to work with. USD shows a firmer tone in Asia.

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) – Bullish LT Uptrend Confirmation in Q1 2023 Implies 15-25% Upside

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • LT RSI’s typically maintain a 40-80 range in sustainable uptrends and a 20-60 range in sustainable downtrends. Quarterly RSI has maintained a 45-85 range since 2001 (LT uptrend bias).
  • The material correction of 2021/2022 has produced a high probability confirmation of a renewed LT uptrend (quarterly Morning Star pattern). Minimum target range at 74300/79610 (+15-25%) in the coming year.

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Apr 01
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – Price and Momentum Breakouts in March Confirm 10-15% Upside and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – Price and Momentum Breakouts in March Confirm 10-15% Upside
  • Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – Price and Momentum Breakouts in March Confirm 10-15% Upside

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) bottomed in Oct/Nov 2022 around the 61.8% retracement support. The subsequent impulsive multi-month uptrend maintains the bullish LT trend reversal confirmed in 2021.
  • March 2023 has delivered new bullish breakouts in price and LT momentum that confirm a sustainable LT uptrend bias. Initial target at 5.28 (+13%). Longer term risk to 6.50/6.80 (+40%).

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

By Joe Jasper

  • The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
  • Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
  • As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners

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Mar 31
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: XPeng Inc (9868 HK) – Bullish Technical Triggers Confirm MT Uptrend – Target 25-30% Upswing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • XPeng Inc (9868 HK) – Bullish Technical Triggers Confirm MT Uptrend – Target 25-30% Upswing

XPeng Inc (9868 HK) – Bullish Technical Triggers Confirm MT Uptrend – Target 25-30% Upswing

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • XPeng Inc (9868 HK) has this week broken above the falling wedge pattern that captured its Dec/Mar correction. The bullish trend breakout in the weekly RSI confirms the uptrend bias. 
  • Wedge patterns are commonly referred to as “Half Mast” patterns. They typically occur in the middle of trends, making textbook targets easy to calculate. Target 56.10 (+29%) in Q2 2023.

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Mar 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias
  • Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Bullish Multi-Month Outlook – Target 450+ (+20-25%)
  • MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support — Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Q1 2023 has confirmed that the material 2022 downward correction is likely complete. Subsequently, after a period of correction, the resumption of the Q4/Q1 uptrend was confirmed.
  • Bullish price triggers combine with positive MT/LT momentum triggers to initially target 13740. A break above 13740 is increasingly likely and would present a far more bullish MT outlook.

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Bullish Multi-Month Outlook – Target 450+ (+20-25%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Last week complemented November 2022’s  bullish LT confirmation with a bullish MT confirmation, re-instating the MT uptrend after a period of correction in Feb/Mar.
  • Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) has likely entered the 2nd leg of a material MT uptrend. Q2 2023 target towards 451.95 (+25%).

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support — Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

By Joe Jasper

  • In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
  • The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
  • The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).

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Mar 27
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Credit Becoming Due and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Credit Becoming Due

Credit Becoming Due

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The troubles of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital, Credit Suisse, an ongoing lack of confidence in European banks, and First Republic Bank have resulted in extreme volatility in Short dated Interest rates, Banks, and Financials.
  • The sharp rise in fixed-income volatility has not happened to FX, Commodity, and Equity volatility.
  • We saw record one-day moves in 3-month SOFR futures, and 2-Year Treasury yields dropped the most since 2008.

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Mar 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

By Joe Jasper

  • The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
  • We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
  • If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.

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