Category

Technical Analysis

Apr 04
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD Divisions – AUD Bearish and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USD Divisions – AUD Bearish
  • Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) – Bullish LT Uptrend Confirmation in Q1 2023 Implies 15-25% Upside

USD Divisions – AUD Bearish

By Thomas Schroeder

  • AUD and NZD bear patterns stand out versus the Euro’s rebound which is at the top end of the range as the DXY finds a foothold at 102/101.
  • Sterling met our 1.24 rally objective where we reversed to short. USD/JPY rise from 130 reaching for 134. USD/ZAR near our buy zone.
  • Yield basing needed to support any sort of meaningful USD rise (DXY 104 near resistance) but there are tradable patterns to work with. USD shows a firmer tone in Asia.

Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) – Bullish LT Uptrend Confirmation in Q1 2023 Implies 15-25% Upside

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • LT RSI’s typically maintain a 40-80 range in sustainable uptrends and a 20-60 range in sustainable downtrends. Quarterly RSI has maintained a 45-85 range since 2001 (LT uptrend bias).
  • The material correction of 2021/2022 has produced a high probability confirmation of a renewed LT uptrend (quarterly Morning Star pattern). Minimum target range at 74300/79610 (+15-25%) in the coming year.

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Apr 01
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – Price and Momentum Breakouts in March Confirm 10-15% Upside and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – Price and Momentum Breakouts in March Confirm 10-15% Upside
  • Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – Price and Momentum Breakouts in March Confirm 10-15% Upside

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) bottomed in Oct/Nov 2022 around the 61.8% retracement support. The subsequent impulsive multi-month uptrend maintains the bullish LT trend reversal confirmed in 2021.
  • March 2023 has delivered new bullish breakouts in price and LT momentum that confirm a sustainable LT uptrend bias. Initial target at 5.28 (+13%). Longer term risk to 6.50/6.80 (+40%).

Shift To Defensives as $ACWI Makes Push for $93; Remain Overweight Europe; Opptys in China/HK, Japan

By Joe Jasper

  • The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), EAFE (EFA-US), and EM (EEM-US) are all reversing topside their 2-month downtrends.
  • Despite this being a bullish short-term development, we still expect $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US, leaving about 4-5% upside from here (at time of writing)
  • As a result, we would use any further strength as an opportunity to get more defensive. Actionable Themes: REA-AU, GFL-CA, GFL-US, Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Gold Miners

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Mar 31
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: XPeng Inc (9868 HK) – Bullish Technical Triggers Confirm MT Uptrend – Target 25-30% Upswing and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • XPeng Inc (9868 HK) – Bullish Technical Triggers Confirm MT Uptrend – Target 25-30% Upswing

XPeng Inc (9868 HK) – Bullish Technical Triggers Confirm MT Uptrend – Target 25-30% Upswing

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • XPeng Inc (9868 HK) has this week broken above the falling wedge pattern that captured its Dec/Mar correction. The bullish trend breakout in the weekly RSI confirms the uptrend bias. 
  • Wedge patterns are commonly referred to as “Half Mast” patterns. They typically occur in the middle of trends, making textbook targets easy to calculate. Target 56.10 (+29%) in Q2 2023.

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Mar 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias
  • Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Bullish Multi-Month Outlook – Target 450+ (+20-25%)
  • MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support — Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Multiple Bullish Triggers Confirm a Multi-Month Uptrend Bias

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Q1 2023 has confirmed that the material 2022 downward correction is likely complete. Subsequently, after a period of correction, the resumption of the Q4/Q1 uptrend was confirmed.
  • Bullish price triggers combine with positive MT/LT momentum triggers to initially target 13740. A break above 13740 is increasingly likely and would present a far more bullish MT outlook.

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Bullish Multi-Month Outlook – Target 450+ (+20-25%)

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Last week complemented November 2022’s  bullish LT confirmation with a bullish MT confirmation, re-instating the MT uptrend after a period of correction in Feb/Mar.
  • Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) has likely entered the 2nd leg of a material MT uptrend. Q2 2023 target towards 451.95 (+25%).

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support — Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

By Joe Jasper

  • In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
  • The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
  • The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).

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Mar 27
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Credit Becoming Due and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Credit Becoming Due

Credit Becoming Due

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The troubles of Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Capital, Credit Suisse, an ongoing lack of confidence in European banks, and First Republic Bank have resulted in extreme volatility in Short dated Interest rates, Banks, and Financials.
  • The sharp rise in fixed-income volatility has not happened to FX, Commodity, and Equity volatility.
  • We saw record one-day moves in 3-month SOFR futures, and 2-Year Treasury yields dropped the most since 2008.

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Mar 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

By Joe Jasper

  • The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
  • We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
  • If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.

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Mar 24
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK) – 9.1% Profit Target Achieved in 3-4 Weeks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK) – 9.1% Profit Target Achieved in 3-4 Weeks

Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK) – 9.1% Profit Target Achieved in 3-4 Weeks

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • On 14 February 2023 we published a bearish recommendation in  Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology (2208 HK), targeting a 9.1% multi-week decline in Q1 2023.
  • 2208 HK declined from 7.62 on 14 February to 6.94 on 10 March (19 trading days), a decline of 9.1%. 

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Mar 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Tencent 331 Support Pressure and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent 331 Support Pressure
  • Wharf Real Estate Investment Co Ltd (1997 HK) – Pending Confirmation of 12% Multi-Month Uptrend

Tencent 331 Support Pressure

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our Tencent sell from 385 has formed a flat range with a bias to pressure the 331 pivot support to reach our 300-305 buy (cover) target.
  • The descending wedge or channel is the dominant chart pattern that will drive the medium term trend. Global and HK bear pressure will influence Tencent near term.
  • From the 300 support zone we see a better macro set up that will see the bull wedge mature and break higher once summer turbulence subsides.

Wharf Real Estate Investment Co Ltd (1997 HK) – Pending Confirmation of 12% Multi-Month Uptrend

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • The 2018/2020 downtrend was broken in December 2022. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction and opportunity to enter the uptrend at improved entry levels.
  • March has the potential to complete a bullish monthly reversal pattern upon a month end close above 44.89 and confirm a likely multi-month 12% uptrend towards 50.67. 

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Mar 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

By Joe Jasper

  • Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&P 500.
  • The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).
  • The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.

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Mar 21
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Meituan Tactical Slide into Our Buy Zone and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Meituan Tactical Slide into Our Buy Zone

Meituan Tactical Slide into Our Buy Zone

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Macro trend remains challenging for Meituan over the summer. We see a tactical short out of triangulation and view a new low as a turn and buy signal.
  • RSI bull divergence support a series of tactical rally sequences off of a new low, but macro headwinds will cap over the summer.
  • Bull set up at lower expanding wedge support with wedge resistance coming in near 140. 

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