Category

Technical Analysis

Apr 26
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bitcoin (XBTUSD) –        Recent Decline Is Logical / Necessary / Counter-Trend and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bitcoin (XBTUSD) –        Recent Decline Is Logical / Necessary / Counter-Trend
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF): Weekly Close Confirms Bearish Multi-Week Risk
  • “Sell in May” Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear
  • Late April Break for a 6-Week Decline

Bitcoin (XBTUSD) –        Recent Decline Is Logical / Necessary / Counter-Trend

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Bitcoin (XBTUSD) confirmed a meaningful top in the past 2 weeks when it rejected material MT resistance levels and completed a bearish weekly reversal pattern.
  • With definitive bullish price and momentum triggers in play, we anticipate that a multi-week period of consolidation / correction will remain counter-trend. Searching for the next MT base towards 25200/25250. 

MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MXEF): Weekly Close Confirms Bearish Multi-Week Risk

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Throughout Q4 2022 / Q1 2023 each material turning point has been confirmed by a definitive weekly reversal pattern. Last week produced a definitive bearish weekly reversal pattern. 
  • Long-Term charts imply that MXEF has entered a sustainable multi- quarter uptrend. Last week’s bearish weekly confirmation however, confirms risk of a further counter-trend correction in the coming weeks.

“Sell in May” Another Reason to Be Defensive; Value to Lead?; Buys in Medical Devices, Footwear

By Joe Jasper

  • The SPX made a high of 4169 last week, tagging our 4165-4200 resistance range. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023, with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible.
  • Considering limited upside in both scenarios, and with the seasonably weaker “sell in May and go away” period approaching, we continue to recommend higher allocations to defensives
  • This includes Utilities (XLU, RYU), Consumer Staples (XLP), Health Care (XLV, PPH), and gold miners (GDX).

Late April Break for a 6-Week Decline

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Late April capitulation turn unfolding on the SPX trendline break and RTY wedge support breach. We turned bearish (shorting) on April 18 just under SPX 4,200.
  • A number of breakdown coming through in Asia – Korea’s bear impulse and Taiwan’s break of trendline support that turns the cycle to bearish. Japan will lag.
  • SPX MACD bear turn is in line with our late April bear phase. A cycle trough is due in 6 weeks time (second week of June).

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Apr 25
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Tencent Second Rejection – 305 Buy Zone and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent Second Rejection – 305 Buy Zone

Tencent Second Rejection – 305 Buy Zone

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Tencent’s rally back to the 285 resistance saw a second rejection confirming a b-wave top and our base case call for a C wave slide to the 305 buy support.
  • Corrective structure to align with RSI low just under 30 as the buy zone. Sell volumes are on the backfoot.
  • Macro long zone remains at 305/280 to challenge the 385 bull/bear divide. Near resistance at 370.

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Apr 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Taiwan Crack/Red Flag and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Crack/Red Flag

Taiwan Crack/Red Flag

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Taiwan has been a top long but losing bull energy. RSI second support break warns of a price break below pivotal trendline turning our stance from exhaustive to bearish.
  • Taiwan has been a good hiding place but appears over owned amid waning upside momentum and high conviction RSI bear divergence.
  • Bearish rising wedge amid divergence are the key chart components to focus on.

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Apr 21
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSCEI Stocks to Buy at a Material Discount – Targeted Buying Levels in 2319 HK / 2020 HK / 9888 HK and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HSCEI Stocks to Buy at a Material Discount – Targeted Buying Levels in 2319 HK / 2020 HK / 9888 HK
  • Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

HSCEI Stocks to Buy at a Material Discount – Targeted Buying Levels in 2319 HK / 2020 HK / 9888 HK

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
  • China Mengniu Dairy Co Ltd (2319 HK), ANTA Sports Products Ltd (2020 HK) and Baidu Inc (9888 HK) are all trading at significant discounts to 2023 highs and LT highs.
  • Today we highlight targeted support levels / buying opportunities in the coming 1-2 days in 2319 HK, 1-3 weeks in 2020 HK and 1-3 months in 9888 HK). 

Favor Defensives as S&P 500 Tests 4165-4200; Buys in Consumer Staples & Europe/UK Telecomm

By Joe Jasper

  • The S&P 500 is approaching the 4165-4200 area; we continue to believe this will cap upside in 2023, but we also acknowledge that a move to 4300-4325 is possible
  • Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives, particularly Health Care (XLV), Utilities (RYU, XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and precious metals miners (GDX)
  • 10-Year and 30-Year Treasury yields testing short-term resistance while the US dollar (DXY) tests support at $101-101.50.

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Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – 5.28 Target Achieved (+13%) In 8 Trading Days and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – 5.28 Target Achieved (+13%) In 8 Trading Days

PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – 5.28 Target Achieved (+13%) In 8 Trading Days

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
  • On 31 March 2023 we published a bullish recommendation in PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK), targeting an initial 13% upswing from 4.68 to 5.28.  Longer term scope identified to 6.50/6.80.
  • Initial target at 5.28 (+13%) was achieved on 17 April 2023 (8 trading days). We continue to highlight strong evidence of LT bullish trend change targeting 6.50/6.80 (+40%) multi-quarter. 

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Apr 18
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – Pending Confirmation of Bullish Breakout and Textbook 7770/80 Q2 2023 Target and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – Pending Confirmation of Bullish Breakout and Textbook 7770/80 Q2 2023 Target

Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – Pending Confirmation of Bullish Breakout and Textbook 7770/80 Q2 2023 Target

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
  • A prominent bottom below 5000 in Q4 2022 set up an impulsive multi-month uptrend and LT uptrend bias. Our 2023 target at 9450/70 reflects this major bottom.
  • 2023 has delivered a tangible downward correction. Since mid-February a Head and Shoulders Bottom has formed. A break above the neckline at 7085 targets 7770/80 in Q2 2023.

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Japan and Korea Action Levels and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan and Korea Action Levels

Japan and Korea Action Levels

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Japan and Korea are meeting rally objective action points. NKY 28,500 touted as the level to short. Korea meeting the 337/338 upper wedge range target to lock in some gains.
  • Japan has formed previous tops below 29,000. Korea will need to backfill and likely retest the top of the rising wedge given the impulsive nature of the rise. 
  • These topping patterns show conviction to form bigger cycle peaks into late April ahead of a more negative phase in May. Factor in final SPX push to 4,200-20.

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Apr 14
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: JD.com Inc (9618 HK) – Prominent ST Momentum Failures – Target Tactical 9-18% Rise and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • JD.com Inc (9618 HK) – Prominent ST Momentum Failures – Target Tactical 9-18% Rise

JD.com Inc (9618 HK) – Prominent ST Momentum Failures – Target Tactical 9-18% Rise

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • JD.com Inc (9618 HK) has declined heavily in 2023 (-44.5%), producing a new 5 month low of 143.50 on 13 April 2023.
  • The 143.50 low was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and the new low was quick to fail and reverse.
  • Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS < 10 at the low and justifies a further 9-18% upswing in the coming 1-2 weeks.

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Apr 13
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Short HSI Bear Wedge and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Short HSI Bear Wedge
  • SPX Rally Failure Below 4,200
  • Defensive Areas Starting to Lead; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Support at 3.35-3.4%

Short HSI Bear Wedge

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Hong Kong is the weak link in Asia to short. Bear wedge set to break lower after the rally failed under the 21,000 sell resistance. Similar fate for the A50.
  • ASX met sub 7,400 zone to trim. Korea 327 sell zone, starting to unwind. NKY 28,300-500 sell zone at hand.
  • A number of markets are approaching sell levels in Asia and Europe. Does the SPX rise may fall short of 4,200? Third week in April is when bull energy dissipates.

SPX Rally Failure Below 4,200

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Compelling intraday reversal that kissed 4,177. Concern over an early fade below 4,200 was justified and formed a dual top. Fade below 4,165 was negative and used to sell.
  • Growth concerns overshadowing lower inflation (transitioning) and this is a theme that we expect will expand over the summer along with the next round of bank failures/ripples and systemic risk. 
  • Cycle: May/June a more negative cycle. Second half of April is when bull energy dissipates and starts the turning process.

Defensive Areas Starting to Lead; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Support at 3.35-3.4%

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-January/early-February we’ve recommended shifting to defensives considering our belief that 4165-4200 will cap upside on the $SPX in 2023, while also conceding that a reach to 4300-4325 is possible.
  • Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives and believe that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives
  • Defensive Sectors including Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Staples (XLP) are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX). 

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (688 HK) – Large Base in 2021/2022 – Material Upside in 2023 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (688 HK) – Large Base in 2021/2022 – Material Upside in 2023

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (688 HK) – Large Base in 2021/2022 – Material Upside in 2023

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • A large triple bottom in 2021/2022 has confirmed a likely multi-year base and evolving multi-year uptrend. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction within the evolving uptrend.
  • A bullish weekly reversal pattern last week has confirmed that the 2023 correction is likely complete. Initial target at 23.20 (+11%), the break above which will target 27.35 (+30%).

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