Technical Analysis

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
On 27 March 2023 we identified a pending 6.2% upswing in NQ1 and 13740 target. A further bullish outlook would hinge upon the response to 1yr range highs at 13740.
Our interim target at 13740 was achieved and exceeded last week. The weekly close above 13740 identifies an evolving MT uptrend. Interim target at 14350. Potential to 15000+ in 2023.

US 10YR Yield (USGG10YR) – Weekly Close Confirms a Renewed MT Uptrend – Target 3.90/3.95

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
US 10yr Yield broke above its 4 decade downtrend at 2.70 in 2022, confirming a positive multi-year outlook and target towards 6.24 (38.2% retracement of the LT downtrend).
Last week’s weekly close confirmed a renewal of the MT uptrend bias after a multi-month period of consolidation finally produced a definitive positive breakout above 3.57/3.64. Interim target at 3.90/3.95.

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May 20

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Asia Long/Short Update and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Asia Long/Short Update
Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

Asia Long/Short Update

Top longs have been India and Australia. Top shorts HSI and Korea. Korea’s bearish wedge is maturing and stands out as macro risk.
Turned neutral the Nikkei above 29,200. 29,500 represents from buy support to threaten 31,000. Near term top at 31k for a pullback try.
USD upside breakout is front running a softer equity bias in Asia for June. SPX 4,200/20 top zone throw over probable.

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe

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May 17

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Critical Weekly Close Awaits – 302/330 Buy Zone Achieved in May and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Critical Weekly Close Awaits – 302/330 Buy Zone Achieved in May
SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Critical Weekly Close Awaits – 302/330 Buy Zone Achieved in May

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
Our multi-quarter outlook for Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) remains extremely bullish with a multi-quarter target towards 451.95. In April we identified the 302/330 range as a potential buy zone.
The recent low of 323.20 has preceded an impulsive bullish daily confirmation. This week we await a bullish weekly close (above 343.99) to confirm a renewed MT uptrend bias.

SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).
Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).
A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.

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May 15

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: TLT Triangle Power Move Brewing and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

TLT Triangle Power Move Brewing

TLT Triangle Power Move Brewing

Triangle breakouts are considered one of the more powerful patterns with a higher reliability and followed by high momentum moves. TLT 102 and 109 breakout pivots.
Slowing growth and falling inflation set a bullish backdrop for bonds and lower yields. US 1 year yield exhibits a compelling bearish flat range.
KRE bear break represents the biggest threat to the SPX in May/June. We are maintaining our sell from SPX 4,200 for mid-June cycle low.

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May 13

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Broad-Based Improvement in India and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today’s buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.

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May 08

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Agricultural Bank of China Ltd (1288 HK) – Target 13%-24% Uptrend in 2-3 Quarters. and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Agricultural Bank of China Ltd (1288 HK) – Target 13%-24% Uptrend in 2-3 Quarters.
AAG Energy (2686) Favors Buying Weakness

Agricultural Bank of China Ltd (1288 HK) – Target 13%-24% Uptrend in 2-3 Quarters.

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
The LT downtrend structure in 1288 HK was simply defined by its 2018/2022 sequence of lower highs and lower lows. This structure was broken last week.
LT momentum indicators (monthly RSI / MACD) have recently confirmed this bullish LT trend change. The current uptrend appears set to extend towards 3.60/3.90 (+13%-24%) in the coming 2-3 quarters.

AAG Energy (2686) Favors Buying Weakness

AAG Energy (2686) exhibits a clear wedge range to trade with an intermediate positive outcome as long as lower wedge support stands up near outlined 1.50 support.
The intermediate cycle favors a bullish outcome as long as lower pattern support holds true. Wedge still needs time to mature.
1.70 is the level to clear for bull traction. Risk to 1.40 region if we fail to hold lower wedge support at 1.48.

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May 04

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: KRE Lead Breakdown and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

KRE Lead Breakdown

KRE Lead Breakdown

Bank jitters touted to resurface in May with growth concerns topping falling inflation data. SPX MACD in focus as a key bearish driver.
KRE bear break below 42 support targets 32.40 and will bleed into the SPX and the global cycle.
MACD cycle trough expected near mid-June and will set the stage for a bull recovery. Until then we are selling bounces per our May/June negative cycle.

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May 03

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX and RTY to Reverse and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

SPX and RTY to Reverse, Euro Wedge and Asia Short/Long Update
S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

SPX and RTY to Reverse, Euro Wedge and Asia Short/Long Update

Cycle: May/June a more negative cycle. Late April negative/ turn phase is unfolding with a squeeze surprise (2-3 session swing turns). Sell SPX 4,200 top zone. 4,100 break will open up selling pressure.
RTY bear reversal at 1,790 resistance on track and the underperform favored US short.
Euro wedge break would pick up slack as the USD/JPY rise stalls at resistance. Asian equity short, long updated levels.

S&P 500 Testing 4165-4200, DJIA Testing 34,280, Nasdaq Composite Testing 12,300; Stay Defensive

We still recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Utilities, Healthcare, and gold miners) as the SPX tests our 4165-4200 resistance range, and also resistance from the prior 1.5-month uptrend.
As we await Wednesdays FOMC announcement, the DJIA and Nasdaq Composite are testing 1-year resistances at 34,280 and 12,300, the DXY appears to be inflecting higher, and breadth remains weak.
While we still see a reach to 4300-4325 as possible, we believe playing for more upside is akin to picking up pennies in front of a steamroller.

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Apr 29

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL1) – Weekly Close Setting Up to Confirm a Material MT Downtrend Bias and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL1) – Weekly Close Setting Up to Confirm a Material MT Downtrend Bias
Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

WTI Crude Oil Futures (CL1) – Weekly Close Setting Up to Confirm a Material MT Downtrend Bias

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
The past 3 weeks have produced a failed new 2023 high in WTI Crude Oil futures (CL1), a bearish weekly reversal pattern and a break below the recent prominent gap.
A weekly close below the gap base at 75.72 will confirm a renewed and dominant MT downtrend bias and target a retest of the 2023 low at 64.12.

Stay Tactically Overweight Defensives; Remain Overweight Europe, Japan, & EAFE. Buys in Defensives

Our 2023 outlook, initially discussed in our January 6th 2023 Int’l Compass, was for $93 to cap upside on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US); this has again proven prescient.
Since late-January/early-February we have recommended shifting to defensives, and MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care (IXJ-US), Utilities (JXI-US), and Consumer Staples (KXI-US) are now hitting 3-4-month RS highs.
With the ACWI-US just now starting to turn down after testing $93, we continue to recommend a tactical overweight to the aforementioned defensive Sectors, and also to gold miners (GDX-US).

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Apr 28

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Q2 2023 Correction Presents a MT Buying Opportunity at 302/330 and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Q2 2023 Correction Presents a MT Buying Opportunity at 302/330

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Q2 2023 Correction Presents a MT Buying Opportunity at 302/330