Category

Technical Analysis

Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – 5.28 Target Achieved (+13%) In 8 Trading Days and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – 5.28 Target Achieved (+13%) In 8 Trading Days

PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK) – 5.28 Target Achieved (+13%) In 8 Trading Days

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
  • On 31 March 2023 we published a bullish recommendation in PetroChina Co Ltd (857 HK), targeting an initial 13% upswing from 4.68 to 5.28.  Longer term scope identified to 6.50/6.80.
  • Initial target at 5.28 (+13%) was achieved on 17 April 2023 (8 trading days). We continue to highlight strong evidence of LT bullish trend change targeting 6.50/6.80 (+40%) multi-quarter. 

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Apr 18
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – Pending Confirmation of Bullish Breakout and Textbook 7770/80 Q2 2023 Target and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – Pending Confirmation of Bullish Breakout and Textbook 7770/80 Q2 2023 Target

Hang Seng CEI (HSCEI) – Pending Confirmation of Bullish Breakout and Textbook 7770/80 Q2 2023 Target

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. 1) Response to key levels. 2) Price action. 3) Momentum confirmation.
  • A prominent bottom below 5000 in Q4 2022 set up an impulsive multi-month uptrend and LT uptrend bias. Our 2023 target at 9450/70 reflects this major bottom.
  • 2023 has delivered a tangible downward correction. Since mid-February a Head and Shoulders Bottom has formed. A break above the neckline at 7085 targets 7770/80 in Q2 2023.

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Apr 17
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Japan and Korea Action Levels and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan and Korea Action Levels

Japan and Korea Action Levels

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Japan and Korea are meeting rally objective action points. NKY 28,500 touted as the level to short. Korea meeting the 337/338 upper wedge range target to lock in some gains.
  • Japan has formed previous tops below 29,000. Korea will need to backfill and likely retest the top of the rising wedge given the impulsive nature of the rise. 
  • These topping patterns show conviction to form bigger cycle peaks into late April ahead of a more negative phase in May. Factor in final SPX push to 4,200-20.

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Apr 14
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: JD.com Inc (9618 HK) – Prominent ST Momentum Failures – Target Tactical 9-18% Rise and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • JD.com Inc (9618 HK) – Prominent ST Momentum Failures – Target Tactical 9-18% Rise

JD.com Inc (9618 HK) – Prominent ST Momentum Failures – Target Tactical 9-18% Rise

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • JD.com Inc (9618 HK) has declined heavily in 2023 (-44.5%), producing a new 5 month low of 143.50 on 13 April 2023.
  • The 143.50 low was plagued by extreme ST momentum failure and the new low was quick to fail and reverse.
  • Our TSS methodology triggered a TSS < 10 at the low and justifies a further 9-18% upswing in the coming 1-2 weeks.

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Apr 13
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Short HSI Bear Wedge and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Short HSI Bear Wedge
  • SPX Rally Failure Below 4,200
  • Defensive Areas Starting to Lead; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Support at 3.35-3.4%

Short HSI Bear Wedge

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Hong Kong is the weak link in Asia to short. Bear wedge set to break lower after the rally failed under the 21,000 sell resistance. Similar fate for the A50.
  • ASX met sub 7,400 zone to trim. Korea 327 sell zone, starting to unwind. NKY 28,300-500 sell zone at hand.
  • A number of markets are approaching sell levels in Asia and Europe. Does the SPX rise may fall short of 4,200? Third week in April is when bull energy dissipates.

SPX Rally Failure Below 4,200

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Compelling intraday reversal that kissed 4,177. Concern over an early fade below 4,200 was justified and formed a dual top. Fade below 4,165 was negative and used to sell.
  • Growth concerns overshadowing lower inflation (transitioning) and this is a theme that we expect will expand over the summer along with the next round of bank failures/ripples and systemic risk. 
  • Cycle: May/June a more negative cycle. Second half of April is when bull energy dissipates and starts the turning process.

Defensive Areas Starting to Lead; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing Support at 3.35-3.4%

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-January/early-February we’ve recommended shifting to defensives considering our belief that 4165-4200 will cap upside on the $SPX in 2023, while also conceding that a reach to 4300-4325 is possible.
  • Considering limited upside in both scenarios, we continue to recommend shifting to defensives and believe that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives
  • Defensive Sectors including Health Care (XLV), Utilities (XLU), and Staples (XLP) are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX). 

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (688 HK) – Large Base in 2021/2022 – Material Upside in 2023 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (688 HK) – Large Base in 2021/2022 – Material Upside in 2023

China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd (688 HK) – Large Base in 2021/2022 – Material Upside in 2023

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • A large triple bottom in 2021/2022 has confirmed a likely multi-year base and evolving multi-year uptrend. Q1 2023 has delivered a correction within the evolving uptrend.
  • A bullish weekly reversal pattern last week has confirmed that the 2023 correction is likely complete. Initial target at 23.20 (+11%), the break above which will target 27.35 (+30%).

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Apr 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX 4 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX 4,100 Bull Turn

SPX 4,100 Bull Turn

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX met the 4,100 long target and NDX turned higher off of 13,000 support that are expected to induce a secondary April rally.
  • A push back toward SPX 4,200 will put the final touches on the buoyant April recovery cycle toward SPX 4,200/20. There is risk the rally falters below 4,200.
  • US 10yr yield hovering above 3.20% lower wedge support per call for an undershoot below 3.35%. 

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Apr 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

Defensives Worthy of a Tactical Overweight; Buys in Global Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities

By Joe Jasper

  • As recently as last week and throughout February/March we have recommended shifting to defensives due to our belief that $93 will cap upside on the $ACWI in 2023.
  • MSCI ACWI defensive Sectors including Health Care, Utilities, and Consumer Staples are hitting 2+ month RS highs, and are staging bullish price and RS reversals, as are gold miners (GDX-US).
  • This confirms our belief that now is the time to be tactically overweight defensives. We highlight buys in Health Care, Gold Miners, and Utilities, with the vast majority from Europe

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Apr 06
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Asia Long and Short Positioning and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Long and Short Positioning
  • Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988 HK) – Initial Upswing Is Correcting Lower – Testing Key MA Support

Asia Long and Short Positioning

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Taiwan has been our top long but showing momentum deterioration. ASX and Kospi met rally targets to finesse a dip and secondary push. HSI long struggling. Short near 21,000.
  • Japan and India are our immediate short plays. NKY dip and rally with bigger top due at 28,500.
  • April is a bullish month but once the buoyant cycle terminates, we will turn more aggressive on the short side (NKY, HSI, Korea and even Taiwan is on our radar.

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (9988 HK) – Initial Upswing Is Correcting Lower – Testing Key MA Support

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • This week’s decline is deemed counter-trend and is in stark conflict with the bullish MT and LT triggers detailed in our bullish publication on 29 March 2023.
  • Key support levels often combine a number of important moving averages.  92.00/94.50 combines the 20/50 week MA’s / 12/26 week EMA’s. High risk MT bottom at 92.00/94.50. Target 118.50.

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Apr 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: $SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • $SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

By Joe Jasper

  • On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.
  • The S&P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.
  • We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 — with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible — but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.

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