Category

Technical Analysis

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels
  • WTI and Gold Targets

Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

By Joe Jasper

  • The S&P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
  • While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&P 500 is above 4165-4200.
  • Breadth remains weak within the S&P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.

WTI and Gold Targets

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Oil and gold remain under pressure due to a firm US dollar. Use strikes to the downside in oil to re cycle a short near 75 resistance. 
  • Our sell call in gold at 2,060 is pressing below 1,980 with a target of 1,900 where we start to probe for an intermediate cycle low.
  • We view this as a tactical pullback within a more bullish macro cycle. USD counter play.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Next USD Trade and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Next USD Trade

Next USD Trade

By Thomas Schroeder

  • USD rise met tactical rally objectives. USD dip/rally sequence in play with a focus on adding to the USD near DXY 103 and gunning for 105.80.
  • Euro, NZD, AUD. USD/JPY. ZAR. Re cycle game plan. Sterling and SGD our USD dip bets to overlap with USD long reduce zones.
  • US 10yr 3.80% yield top call with 3.40% pocket support. Yield will be pivotal in a near term USD dip sequence.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

By Joe Jasper

  • There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.
  • At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.
  • EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

By Joe Jasper

  • Since January 2023 we’ve anticipated for 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
  • In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible.
  • The Nasdaq Composite hit 13,154 Tuesday as Technology (XLK), and to a lesser extent Communications (XLC), are seemingly in a blowoff stage, while all other Sectors are neutral to bearish.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Tencent Nearing Our Buy Zone and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent Nearing Our Buy Zone
  • SPX Met Blow off Zone

Tencent Nearing Our Buy Zone

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Tencent is nearing our 302 support target with undershoot risk to sub 300, support at 290. HSI continues to trade heavy but reaching oversold levels.
  • The break below 331 acted as the most recent sell trigger and will turn into resistance on the way back up. We turned bearish Tencent back in February. 
  • Need to see lower price with weakening sell volumes for better buy conviction. Lower wedge support the buy zone, sync with an HSI low.

SPX Met Blow off Zone

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX kissed our 4,250 overshoot zone to unwind our 4,120 long. A case of selling the fact as Euphoria fades and reality sets in.
  • RTY remains our top US short and is underperforming the SPX. 1,710 near target with a June bias to crack this pivotal support.
  • US 10yr yield met our rally and sell target at 3.80%. Macro take was to sell yield at 3.80% to test pocket support. USD will lag.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Meituan (3690 HK) –        Break Below 122.55 May Set Up a Most Bearish Month End Close and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Meituan (3690 HK) –        Break Below 122.55 May Set Up a Most Bearish Month End Close

Meituan (3690 HK) –        Break Below 122.55 May Set Up a Most Bearish Month End Close

By David Coloretti, CMT

  • At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
  • Meituan (3690 HK) has been trapped in a symmetrical triangle since bottoming in March 2022. Today the base of the triangle was impulsively broken at 122.55.
  • The base of the triangle also forms part of a much larger LT uptrend that began in 2019. A month end close below 122.55 will target material multi-month downside.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

By Joe Jasper

  • There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
  • Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
  • We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback — especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Sequence into Early June and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • SPX Sequence into Early June

SPX Sequence into Early June

By Thomas Schroeder

  • SPX has once again slipped from the 4,200 high zone. Bounce support lies at 4,120/100.
  • Our preferred sequence touted a pullback from 4,200-20 which holds 4,100 and rockets back to 4,200+ on the back of a debt deal with overshoot risk to 4,250. 
  • Any new June high will be unsustainable and fall prey to macro undercurrents. USD getting a bid on yield and risk aversion.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

By Joe Jasper

  • Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
  • So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not have to end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere
  • To that end, we’re watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD Breakout and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USD Breakout

USD Breakout

By Thomas Schroeder

  • USD breakout of the DXY bull wedge (Euro bear wedge) is gaining traction and will find additional fuel in June when the SPX faces a weaker cycle.
  • Euro turn at macro resistance has legs. USD/JPY bull call from 130 has macro implications on follow through strength and will bleed into Asia FX. 
  • USD vs SGD and IDR saw key macro turns. KRW and commodity currencies have led. USD/ZAR was out top pick in EM and is on fire.

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