Technical Analysis

Tencent is nearing our 302 support target with undershoot risk to sub 300, support at 290. HSI continues to trade heavy but reaching oversold levels.
The break below 331 acted as the most recent sell trigger and will turn into resistance on the way back up. We turned bearish Tencent back in February.
Need to see lower price with weakening sell volumes for better buy conviction. Lower wedge support the buy zone, sync with an HSI low.

SPX Met Blow off Zone

SPX kissed our 4,250 overshoot zone to unwind our 4,120 long. A case of selling the fact as Euphoria fades and reality sets in.
RTY remains our top US short and is underperforming the SPX. 1,710 near target with a June bias to crack this pivotal support.
US 10yr yield met our rally and sell target at 3.80%. Macro take was to sell yield at 3.80% to test pocket support. USD will lag.

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May 30

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Meituan (3690 HK) – Break Below 122.55 May Set Up a Most Bearish Month End Close and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Meituan (3690 HK) – Break Below 122.55 May Set Up a Most Bearish Month End Close

Meituan (3690 HK) – Break Below 122.55 May Set Up a Most Bearish Month End Close

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
Meituan (3690 HK) has been trapped in a symmetrical triangle since bottoming in March 2022. Today the base of the triangle was impulsively broken at 122.55.
The base of the triangle also forms part of a much larger LT uptrend that began in 2019. A month end close below 122.55 will target material multi-month downside.

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May 27

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

No Traction Above $93 on ACWI-US or 4400-4415 on EURO STOXX 50. Buys in Defensives/Japan/EM

There continues to be little traction above $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range. Important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
Additionally, the EURO STOXX 50 remains below 2-year resistance at 4400-4415.
We remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, and we prefer to only add exposure on a pullback — especially in Japan where indexes are bullish yet extended.

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May 25

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: SPX Sequence into Early June and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

SPX Sequence into Early June

SPX Sequence into Early June

SPX has once again slipped from the 4,200 high zone. Bounce support lies at 4,120/100.
Our preferred sequence touted a pullback from 4,200-20 which holds 4,100 and rockets back to 4,200+ on the back of a debt deal with overshoot risk to 4,250.
Any new June high will be unsustainable and fall prey to macro undercurrents. USD getting a bid on yield and risk aversion.

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May 24

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem? and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not have to end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere
To that end, we’re watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development

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May 22

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD Breakout and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

USD Breakout

USD Breakout

USD breakout of the DXY bull wedge (Euro bear wedge) is gaining traction and will find additional fuel in June when the SPX faces a weaker cycle.
Euro turn at macro resistance has legs. USD/JPY bull call from 130 has macro implications on follow through strength and will bleed into Asia FX.
USD vs SGD and IDR saw key macro turns. KRW and commodity currencies have led. USD/ZAR was out top pick in EM and is on fire.

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May 21

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Our 13740 Target Was Achieved Last Week – Ongoing Bullish Bias and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Our 13740 Target Was Achieved Last Week – Ongoing Bullish Bias
US 10YR Yield (USGG10YR) – Weekly Close Confirms a Renewed MT Uptrend – Target 3.90/3.95

NASDAQ 100 E-Mini Futures (NQ1) – Our 13740 Target Was Achieved Last Week – Ongoing Bullish Bias

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
On 27 March 2023 we identified a pending 6.2% upswing in NQ1 and 13740 target. A further bullish outlook would hinge upon the response to 1yr range highs at 13740.
Our interim target at 13740 was achieved and exceeded last week. The weekly close above 13740 identifies an evolving MT uptrend. Interim target at 14350. Potential to 15000+ in 2023.

US 10YR Yield (USGG10YR) – Weekly Close Confirms a Renewed MT Uptrend – Target 3.90/3.95

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
US 10yr Yield broke above its 4 decade downtrend at 2.70 in 2022, confirming a positive multi-year outlook and target towards 6.24 (38.2% retracement of the LT downtrend).
Last week’s weekly close confirmed a renewal of the MT uptrend bias after a multi-month period of consolidation finally produced a definitive positive breakout above 3.57/3.64. Interim target at 3.90/3.95.

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May 20

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Asia Long/Short Update and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Asia Long/Short Update
Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

Asia Long/Short Update

Top longs have been India and Australia. Top shorts HSI and Korea. Korea’s bearish wedge is maturing and stands out as macro risk.
Turned neutral the Nikkei above 29,200. 29,500 represents from buy support to threaten 31,000. Near term top at 31k for a pullback try.
USD upside breakout is front running a softer equity bias in Asia for June. SPX 4,200/20 top zone throw over probable.

Remain Overweight Japan, Europe, & India; Buys in Discretionary and Defensives W/ Japan/Europe Focus

We continue to recommend a tactical overweight to defensives (Staples, Health Care, and Utilities) as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) tests the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range at $93.
We also remain overweight Europe, Japan, and India, where a lot more than just defensives continue to outperform.
Actionable Themes: Consumer Discretionary and Defensives, Mainly in Japan and Europe

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May 17

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Critical Weekly Close Awaits – 302/330 Buy Zone Achieved in May and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Critical Weekly Close Awaits – 302/330 Buy Zone Achieved in May
SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) – Critical Weekly Close Awaits – 302/330 Buy Zone Achieved in May

At TMA we deliver high probability outcomes by focusing on our 3 pillars of technical analysis. •1) Response to key levels. •2) Price action. •3) Momentum confirmation.
Our multi-quarter outlook for Tencent Holdings Ltd (700 HK) remains extremely bullish with a multi-quarter target towards 451.95. In April we identified the 302/330 range as a potential buy zone.
The recent low of 323.20 has preceded an impulsive bullish daily confirmation. This week we await a bullish weekly close (above 343.99) to confirm a renewed MT uptrend bias.

SPX Forming Coiled Spring Between 4200 and 4050; 10Y/2Y Treasury Spread Suggests Recession Close

We continue believe that upside is limited with the S&P 500 testing the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range (4165-4200).
Our gameplan remains unchanged; reduce risk near resistance (where we are now) and add risk near support (the December 2022 lows at 3765 and/or the 2022 lows at 3490).
A break above 4200 on the SPX would likely mean a test of 4300-4325, which we would view as a selling opportunity. A break below 4050 would kickstart a pullback.

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May 15

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: TLT Triangle Power Move Brewing and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

TLT Triangle Power Move Brewing

TLT Triangle Power Move Brewing