Category

Technical Analysis

Jun 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Meeting SPX and NDX Buy Levels and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Meeting SPX and NDX Buy Levels

Meeting SPX and NDX Buy Levels

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Cycle: Near term pullback a buy for a push into late June/early July (cycle has shifted right). Equities remain well supported. Increased volatility expected in July.
  • Met the SPX 4,370 buy level with firmer support at 4,350. Rally bias for a minor new high in the coming week+.
  • Measuring rally momentum for signs of a bigger stall cycle in July.

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Jun 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support; Breadth Remains Constructive; Construction/Engineering Buys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support; Breadth Remains Constructive; Construction/Engineering Buys

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support; Breadth Remains Constructive; Construction/Engineering Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • We discussed last week how consolidation was likely, so far that has played out with the SPX back testing the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
  • We continue to watch short-term support at 4300, and we cannot be bearish if the S&P 500 is above 4300.
  • The Russell 2000 (IWM) is back to test support at $180; we would expect to see this hold as support, but a failure to hold would mean a trip to $170

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Jun 26
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: A Focus on AI and Technology Stocks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • A Focus on AI and Technology Stocks

A Focus on AI and Technology Stocks

By Cam Hui

  • The adoption of AI promises to be highly disruptive and has to potential to improve profitability of companies that adopt the technology.
  • It faces regulatory hurdles and risk-pricing challenges as insurance companies learn to price AI risk, but those problems are a few years away.
  • In the near term, the technology rally appears extended and may need a breather.

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Jun 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Consolidation Likely and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Consolidation Likely, But Little Reason to Be Bearish; Buys Within Biotech, Latin American Banks
  • Japan and Taiwan Add Levels

Consolidation Likely, But Little Reason to Be Bearish; Buys Within Biotech, Latin American Banks

By Joe Jasper

  • The S&P 500 is 1% above the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
  • Our view since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder is that we cannot be bearish if the SPX is above 4050, and we subsequently moved that line-in-the-sand up to 4165-4200 on 6/6/23.
  • We are moving that threshold up to 4300, which is short-term support to watch; a break below it could bring selling pressure.

Japan and Taiwan Add Levels

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Japan and Taiwan have been top bull bets in Asia and still a space we like adding. Dips to date have been shallow and must be factored into entry levels.
  • Japan and Taiwan have both shown impulsive rally structures as has India’s Nifty (a bit tired amid overbought readings).
  • An SPX bull turn will be used as a long trigger for the Nikkei and Taiwan (Asia). Late June cycle peak approaching.

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Jun 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD Trade Splinters and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USD Trade Splinters

USD Trade Splinters

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our proposed USD bull trade from DXY 102.60 (104.80 target zone) is in jeopardy after the ECB induced Euro spike. 
  • Sterling has been our top USD short and the USD/JPY a top USD long. The Euro is under scrutiny but has been capped under 1.11.
  • We will be looking for further evidence of USD bearish elements. DXY below 102 would be more bearish but would be in line with a near term slide in yield.

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Jun 17
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Forced Participation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Forced Participation

Forced Participation

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Explosive SPX upside is a result of funds having to chase as most have not participated in the rise above 4,200. 
  • Our 4,500 target may need to be upgraded with a fresh projection at 4,547. Bull energy slated to extend into late June and like buying dips.
  • Will A and H shares be the next rotation flavor? HSCEI 6,600 bull pivot. A50 13,200 resistance.

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Jun 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

By Joe Jasper

  • The S&P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. 
  • As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we cannot be bearishif the SPX is above 4165-4200
  • Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Asia Macro Chart Trajectory and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Macro Chart Trajectory
  • Can AI Stocks Lead the Market to a New Bull?

Asia Macro Chart Trajectory

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Macro charts for US 10yr yield, Nikkei (bull), Kospi 200 (bear), HSI (bear) and Nifty (bull) featured. Taiwan falls into the bull camp.
  • Cycle: Bullish above SPX 4,200 (rally failure if back below this pivot level). NDX trendline buy  support at 13,950. Risk that tech is stretched near term.
  • Asia is well positioned for gains once we get through some overbought readings. HK and Korea the weak links.

Can AI Stocks Lead the Market to a New Bull?

By Cam Hui

  • Can the AI frenzy, which appears to be in its early stages, carry the stock market to a new bull? An academic study indicates that’s the wrong question to ask.
  • The right question is to determine whether we are in an equity bull so that AI stocks can take advantage of the bull trend. Breadth needs to broaden out.
  • The other and more conventional explanation of market structure is an unhealthy advance against a backdrop of a market that’s positioning for a recession.

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Jun 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: TSMC (ADR) Bull Wedge Breakout for New Highs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (ADR) Bull Wedge Breakout for New Highs

TSMC (ADR) Bull Wedge Breakout for New Highs

By Thomas Schroeder

  • TSMC (ADR) upside gap out of the bull wedge shows conviction to test the 2021 old high zone. Wedge breakouts have a high conviction rate.
  • Price and RSI pattern breakouts show fresh buy support in the gap zone. Buy volumes are constructive as is backswing support.
  • Near term dip risk stems from a stall in the US tech sector (RSI stall zone). Intermediate cycle is compelling.

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Jun 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSI Trailing A Share Weakness and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI Trailing A Share Weakness
  • China Recovery – Industrial

HSI Trailing A Share Weakness

By Thomas Schroeder

  • HSI has been our top short bet where we locked in some short gains at 18,100/300 and now see this bounce as an opportunity to re set the HSI short.
  • Underlying weakness in China A shares sets the tone for HK.
  • Trend and price resistance at 19,300/500 stand out as a key turn zone with a little help from an SPX give back sequence.

China Recovery – Industrial

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The industrial sector is exhibiting signs of a prolonged slowdown, similar to Real Estate and Household trends.
  • This Note is the third in a series on China’s econChina’scovery; we update key charts and add charts relevant to the Industrial sector.
  • Qingdao City on Friday reduced the deposit requirement for purchasing homes, following a trend set by several other cities.

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