Category

Technical Analysis

Jun 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: USD Trade Splinters and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • USD Trade Splinters

USD Trade Splinters

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Our proposed USD bull trade from DXY 102.60 (104.80 target zone) is in jeopardy after the ECB induced Euro spike. 
  • Sterling has been our top USD short and the USD/JPY a top USD long. The Euro is under scrutiny but has been capped under 1.11.
  • We will be looking for further evidence of USD bearish elements. DXY below 102 would be more bearish but would be in line with a near term slide in yield.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jun 17
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Forced Participation and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Forced Participation

Forced Participation

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Explosive SPX upside is a result of funds having to chase as most have not participated in the rise above 4,200. 
  • Our 4,500 target may need to be upgraded with a fresh projection at 4,547. Bull energy slated to extend into late June and like buying dips.
  • Will A and H shares be the next rotation flavor? HSCEI 6,600 bull pivot. A50 13,200 resistance.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jun 15
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

By Joe Jasper

  • The S&P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. 
  • As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we cannot be bearishif the SPX is above 4165-4200
  • Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Asia Macro Chart Trajectory and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Asia Macro Chart Trajectory
  • Can AI Stocks Lead the Market to a New Bull?

Asia Macro Chart Trajectory

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Macro charts for US 10yr yield, Nikkei (bull), Kospi 200 (bear), HSI (bear) and Nifty (bull) featured. Taiwan falls into the bull camp.
  • Cycle: Bullish above SPX 4,200 (rally failure if back below this pivot level). NDX trendline buy  support at 13,950. Risk that tech is stretched near term.
  • Asia is well positioned for gains once we get through some overbought readings. HK and Korea the weak links.

Can AI Stocks Lead the Market to a New Bull?

By Cam Hui

  • Can the AI frenzy, which appears to be in its early stages, carry the stock market to a new bull? An academic study indicates that’s the wrong question to ask.
  • The right question is to determine whether we are in an equity bull so that AI stocks can take advantage of the bull trend. Breadth needs to broaden out.
  • The other and more conventional explanation of market structure is an unhealthy advance against a backdrop of a market that’s positioning for a recession.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jun 10
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: TSMC (ADR) Bull Wedge Breakout for New Highs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TSMC (ADR) Bull Wedge Breakout for New Highs

TSMC (ADR) Bull Wedge Breakout for New Highs

By Thomas Schroeder

  • TSMC (ADR) upside gap out of the bull wedge shows conviction to test the 2021 old high zone. Wedge breakouts have a high conviction rate.
  • Price and RSI pattern breakouts show fresh buy support in the gap zone. Buy volumes are constructive as is backswing support.
  • Near term dip risk stems from a stall in the US tech sector (RSI stall zone). Intermediate cycle is compelling.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Jun 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: HSI Trailing A Share Weakness and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HSI Trailing A Share Weakness
  • China Recovery – Industrial

HSI Trailing A Share Weakness

By Thomas Schroeder

  • HSI has been our top short bet where we locked in some short gains at 18,100/300 and now see this bounce as an opportunity to re set the HSI short.
  • Underlying weakness in China A shares sets the tone for HK.
  • Trend and price resistance at 19,300/500 stand out as a key turn zone with a little help from an SPX give back sequence.

China Recovery – Industrial

By Untying The Gordian Knot

  • The industrial sector is exhibiting signs of a prolonged slowdown, similar to Real Estate and Household trends.
  • This Note is the third in a series on China’s econChina’scovery; we update key charts and add charts relevant to the Industrial sector.
  • Qingdao City on Friday reduced the deposit requirement for purchasing homes, following a trend set by several other cities.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Jun 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels
  • WTI and Gold Targets

Russell 2000 Breakout Attempt Underway; Small-Cap Breadth Improving; KRE, KBE, XRT Test Key Levels

By Joe Jasper

  • The S&P 500 broke above 4200 and the 2-month megaphone pattern on Friday, and is already approaching the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
  • While we would be cautious at these levels given our expectation for inflation to remain elevated, we cannot get too bearish if the S&P 500 is above 4165-4200.
  • Breadth remains weak within the S&P 500, but we are starting to see breadth improvement within small-cap Russell 2000 (IWM). More on that below, IWM targets include $190 and $200-202.

WTI and Gold Targets

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Oil and gold remain under pressure due to a firm US dollar. Use strikes to the downside in oil to re cycle a short near 75 resistance. 
  • Our sell call in gold at 2,060 is pressing below 1,980 with a target of 1,900 where we start to probe for an intermediate cycle low.
  • We view this as a tactical pullback within a more bullish macro cycle. USD counter play.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Jun 04
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Next USD Trade and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Next USD Trade

Next USD Trade

By Thomas Schroeder

  • USD rise met tactical rally objectives. USD dip/rally sequence in play with a focus on adding to the USD near DXY 103 and gunning for 105.80.
  • Euro, NZD, AUD. USD/JPY. ZAR. Re cycle game plan. Sterling and SGD our USD dip bets to overlap with USD long reduce zones.
  • US 10yr 3.80% yield top call with 3.40% pocket support. Yield will be pivotal in a near term USD dip sequence.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Jun 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

Japan Remains Leadership; Actionable Pullback in Europe; Downgrading China/Hong Kong

By Joe Jasper

  • There continues to be little traction above $93 on the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), which remains the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range.
  • At the same time, we cannot get too bearish until there is a break below $90.50 short-term support.
  • EURO STOXX 50 pulling back to 4100-4200 buy area. TOPIX holding above 2120 support. Buy ideas within Technology, Construction Materials, gold miners, Utilities, other defensives.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free
Jun 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

Downgrading Discretionary & Health Care to Market Weight, Staples & Utilities to Underweight

By Joe Jasper

  • Since January 2023 we’ve anticipated for 4165-4200 to cap upside on the S&P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
  • In our 5/2/23 Compass we discussed how the Nasdaq Composite was testing 12,300 resistance, and that a breakout and reach to 13,180 is possible.
  • The Nasdaq Composite hit 13,154 Tuesday as Technology (XLK), and to a lesser extent Communications (XLC), are seemingly in a blowoff stage, while all other Sectors are neutral to bearish.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free