Category

Technical Analysis

Aug 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

Pause Continues But Oversold Bounce Likely; Buys in Energy, Construction/Engineering, Enrgy Shippers

By Joe Jasper

  • Support levels discussed in our 8/8/23 Compass broke, leading to a change in character (from buy the dup to sell the rip) and a deeper pullback.
  • Supports we were watching included the 50-day MA and 4460-4475 on the S&P 500, $371.50 on $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM; these are now resistance moving forward
  • Longer-Term support on the S&P 500 is at 4300-4325 (nearly hit on Friday) and 4200, and we will remain constructive as long as these supports hold.

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Aug 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: 10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • 10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

10-Yr Treasury Yield and DXY at Key Inflection Points; $ACWI Testing $93; Energy/HC/Tech/CD Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • Global equities under pressure; we discussed in our August 3,2023 Int’l Compass how it could be the start of a ~15% pullback in $ACWI, which would put it at $84-$85.
  • We also discussed how it is possible that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the major $93 support level (which it tested today).
  • If the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY remain below their respective resistance levels, we remain buyers on this pullback to $93 on ACWI-US.

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Aug 09
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Financials to Market Weight; Shift to Value Continues. Buys in Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Financials to Market Weight; Shift to Value Continues. Buys in Energy, Financials, Mfg.

Upgrading Financials to Market Weight; Shift to Value Continues. Buys in Energy, Financials, Mfg.

By Joe Jasper

  • Fitch’s U.S. credit downgrade has done little to change the intermediate-term trend; we continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes.
  • We remain bullish on the S&P 500, and we expect to see support at its 50-day MA moving forward (currently 4415).
  • Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the S&P 500, $371.50 on the $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM.

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Aug 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Normal Pullback and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

Normal Pullback, or Something More?; Watching Resistance on DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield; Value Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • Global equities are under some pressure after Fitch downgraded the United States’ credit rating to AA+ from AAA.
  • We expect that this is a normal 3%-6% pullback to the 50-day MA or major $93 support level on the MSCI ACWI iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI US) .
  • $TNX is below 4.1%-4.3% and DXY remains in an 8-month downtrend; as long as this remains true, we’d buy on a pullback to the 50-day MA and/or $93 on ACWI-US

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Aug 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199; Highlighting Buys in Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199; Highlighting Buys in Energy

Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199; Highlighting Buys in Energy

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes, which has been our stance since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder.
  • Beginning with our 7/18/23 Compass, we discussed our expectation for major 1+ year breakouts on the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP), Dow, and Russell 2000 (IWM). 
  • The breakouts happened later that day on the RSP and Dow (above $153 and 34,280, respectively), and the IWM is now on the cusp of breaking out above $199.

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Jul 31
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Will A Credit Event Derail the Equity Bull? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Will A Credit Event Derail the Equity Bull?

Will A Credit Event Derail the Equity Bull?

By Cam Hui

  • We believe equity bulls run the risk of a credit event which could spark a bear market.
  • Market-Based indicators used by technicians have failed to anticipate and discount well-telegraphed events such as the GFC and the start of the Russo-Ukraine War.
  • If you want to be bullish, we wouldn’t argue with you. Just be careful.

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Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX, Dow, and Russell 2000

DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX, Dow, and Russell 2000

By Joe Jasper

  • Ever since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder, our view has been that we cannot be bearish unless a key support level breaks (at the time, that was 4050 on the SPX).
  • The S&P 500 is now above 4300-4325 — a level that, in January this year, we had anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
  • We believe 4300-4325 will act as major support moving forward, and we are bullish as long as the SPX is above 4300; we discussed this in our 7/3/23 ETF Pathfinder.

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Jul 11
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Shift in Rate Dynamics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Shift in Rate Dynamics

Shift in Rate Dynamics

By Thomas Schroeder

  • US 10 year cleared the 4.90% resistance threshold as the market reprices Fed policy. This yield pop will have lasting effects.
  • 3.85% is the key support with to supply rally energy.
  • Short term target comes in at 4.20% and MT resistance at 4.70% (but not in a strait line). A staircase move is expected.

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Jul 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Lead Shorts and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Lead Shorts, Where to Cover and Re Set Longs.

Lead Shorts, Where to Cover and Re Set Longs.

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Update on our top shorts as we get closer to our cover targets with some overlap.
  • SPX and NDX secondary short cover levels and where to add back to longs.
  • Minor new chart highs in store into mid-July with target adjustments.

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Jul 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Long/Short Position Under Currents and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Long/Short Position Under Currents

Long/Short Position Under Currents

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Rise into late June/early July cycle peak on track with scope to overshoot after the 4th of July break (then expect a more volatile mid-July period). Reducing on strength.
  • SPX kissed our 4,500 target with an overshoot projection at 4,547. Recent long from 4,470.
  • Top Asia longs: NKY, Taiwan and India. Top shorts have been HSI and Kospi 200 (heavy bias to add on upticks). July will usher in a more volatile phase.

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