Category

Technical Analysis

Sep 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

Supports Starting to Break; Upgrading Non-U.S. Small-Caps to Overweight; Transports/Comm/HC Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • Key support levels on global equity indexes (EURO STOXX 50, $ACWX, $EFA) are beginning to break as the U.S. dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield break above $105.70 and 4.35%.
  • This significantly increases the odds of a break below major $92-$93 support on $ACWI, and we would shift to a more cautious outlook only on a break below $92.
  • We shifted to overweight value within non-U.S. equities last week, and we are now also shifting to overweight small-caps within non-U.S. equities as well. Buys in Transportation, Communications, and HealthCare

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Sep 27
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

By Joe Jasper

  • We’ve expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.
  • Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields 
  • Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI

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Sep 23
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

Overweight Value Within Global Ex-U.S. Equities; DXY Below $105.70; Buys in Global Value

By Joe Jasper

  • Our overall outlook remains largely unchanged; we remain bullish on global equities as long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) is above major $93 support.
  • We also discussed that if the 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% and the DXY is below $105.70, we would continue to expect $93 support on ACWI-US to hold.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield is attempting to break above 4.35% and this could create a problem for ACWI-US; we will continue to monitor closely.

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Sep 13
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners

Downgrading Industrials to Market Weight; Major Supports Holding; Buys in Uranium and Refiners

By Joe Jasper

  • We still believe it’s possible we’ve seen the lows for this pause/pullback on the SPX, and we see low probability of meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support).
  • As initially discussed in our 8/29/23 Compass, we wouldn’t be surprised to see another month+ (i.e., through the end of September, and possibly longer) of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.
  • Downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight due to 1.5+ year RS uptrend violation. Buys highlighted in Uranium and Energy (refiners and coal).

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Sep 09
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

Remain Overweight Japan and India; Key Supports Holding; Buys in Energy, Tech/Services (India)

By Joe Jasper

  • We remain bullish global equities if the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) continues to hold (1+ year base support and the 10.5-month uptrend)
  • The 10-year Treasury yield remains below 4.35% resistance (a positive), but the DXY is climbing above $103.70-$104.70 resistance, and $105.70 is the last line of defense (9-month resistance).
  • Japan and India remain top overweights, with many of today’s buy recommendations from these countries (Real Estate, Energy, Tech/Services, Discretionary). Also downgrading Taiwan and Greece to market weight.

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Sep 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy

Bounce Continues; Small-Caps Test 3.5-Year RS Lows; Nasdaq/NYSE Breadth Improving; Buys in Energy

By Joe Jasper

  • Over the last two weeks we discussed expectations for an oversold bounce; the bounce has continued. We believe it is possible we’ve seen the lows for this pause/pullback on SPX.
  • We see low probability of a meaningful correction if SPX is above 4300-4325 (1.5-year support), but would not be surprised to see another month+ of consolidation between 4325 and 4600.
  • Shorter-Term, as long as 4460 short-term support holds, we expect a test of 4600. Today we highlight several buys within Energy.

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Sep 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Further Declines in DXY and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

By Joe Jasper

  • In our two previous Int’l Compass reports (Aug. 18 & 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
  • $93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
  • $93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).

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Aug 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting, Uranium, Technology

Oversold Bounce Underway Amid Consolidation Phase; Buys in IT Consulting, Uranium, Technology

By Joe Jasper

  • Last week (8/22/23) we discussed our expectations for an oversold bounce due to an overwhelming number of indexes/Sectors/industries testing multi-month supports, combined with Treasury yields and the DXY testing resistance.
  • The bounce has begun with the SPP ending higher last week for the first time in a month, and it is possible we have seen the lows for this pause/pullback.
  • A meaningful correction cannot happen if the SPX is above 4300-4325, but we would not be surprised to see another month or more of consolidation between 4300 and 4600.

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Aug 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Is the Relief Rally Over? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Is the Relief Rally Over?

Is the Relief Rally Over?

By Cam Hui

  • Nvidia blew the doors off Street expectations last week, but the market reacted with semiconductor stocks turning red on the day. Is the relief rally over?
  • We conclude from our review of technical conditions that while breadth indicators argue for a deeper correction, that day may not have arrived just yet.
  • Sentiment is too bearish and should put a floor on stock prices in the short term. The relief rally probably has further room to run.

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Aug 26
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

Key Supports Holding Strong; 10-Year Treasury Yield Below Key Resistance; Buys in Non-Defensives

By Joe Jasper

  • Last week (Aug. 18) we discussed the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY testing respective resistance (4.3%-4.35% and $103.50-$103.70).
  • As long as no decisive breakouts in the 10-year yield or DXY, we were buyers on the pullback to $93 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
  • Outside of our overweight countries (Japan, India, Taiwan, Greece), defensive Sectors continue to lag. We highlight buys in Technology, Services, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials, Materials/Energy, and Financials.

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