Category

Technical Analysis

Aug 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199; Highlighting Buys in Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199; Highlighting Buys in Energy

Expecting Russell 2000 (IWM) Breakout Above $199; Highlighting Buys in Energy

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes, which has been our stance since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder.
  • Beginning with our 7/18/23 Compass, we discussed our expectation for major 1+ year breakouts on the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP), Dow, and Russell 2000 (IWM). 
  • The breakouts happened later that day on the RSP and Dow (above $153 and 34,280, respectively), and the IWM is now on the cusp of breaking out above $199.

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Jul 31
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Will A Credit Event Derail the Equity Bull? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Will A Credit Event Derail the Equity Bull?

Will A Credit Event Derail the Equity Bull?

By Cam Hui

  • We believe equity bulls run the risk of a credit event which could spark a bear market.
  • Market-Based indicators used by technicians have failed to anticipate and discount well-telegraphed events such as the GFC and the start of the Russo-Ukraine War.
  • If you want to be bullish, we wouldn’t argue with you. Just be careful.

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Jul 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX, Dow, and Russell 2000

DXY Break Below $101 Suggests Breakouts Likely Coming for Equal-Weight SPX, Dow, and Russell 2000

By Joe Jasper

  • Ever since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder, our view has been that we cannot be bearish unless a key support level breaks (at the time, that was 4050 on the SPX).
  • The S&P 500 is now above 4300-4325 — a level that, in January this year, we had anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
  • We believe 4300-4325 will act as major support moving forward, and we are bullish as long as the SPX is above 4300; we discussed this in our 7/3/23 ETF Pathfinder.

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Jul 11
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Shift in Rate Dynamics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Shift in Rate Dynamics

Shift in Rate Dynamics

By Thomas Schroeder

  • US 10 year cleared the 4.90% resistance threshold as the market reprices Fed policy. This yield pop will have lasting effects.
  • 3.85% is the key support with to supply rally energy.
  • Short term target comes in at 4.20% and MT resistance at 4.70% (but not in a strait line). A staircase move is expected.

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Jul 07
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Lead Shorts and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Lead Shorts, Where to Cover and Re Set Longs.

Lead Shorts, Where to Cover and Re Set Longs.

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Update on our top shorts as we get closer to our cover targets with some overlap.
  • SPX and NDX secondary short cover levels and where to add back to longs.
  • Minor new chart highs in store into mid-July with target adjustments.

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Jul 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Long/Short Position Under Currents and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Long/Short Position Under Currents

Long/Short Position Under Currents

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Rise into late June/early July cycle peak on track with scope to overshoot after the 4th of July break (then expect a more volatile mid-July period). Reducing on strength.
  • SPX kissed our 4,500 target with an overshoot projection at 4,547. Recent long from 4,470.
  • Top Asia longs: NKY, Taiwan and India. Top shorts have been HSI and Kospi 200 (heavy bias to add on upticks). July will usher in a more volatile phase.

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Jun 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Meeting SPX and NDX Buy Levels and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Meeting SPX and NDX Buy Levels

Meeting SPX and NDX Buy Levels

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Cycle: Near term pullback a buy for a push into late June/early July (cycle has shifted right). Equities remain well supported. Increased volatility expected in July.
  • Met the SPX 4,370 buy level with firmer support at 4,350. Rally bias for a minor new high in the coming week+.
  • Measuring rally momentum for signs of a bigger stall cycle in July.

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Jun 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support; Breadth Remains Constructive; Construction/Engineering Buys and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support; Breadth Remains Constructive; Construction/Engineering Buys

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Support; Breadth Remains Constructive; Construction/Engineering Buys

By Joe Jasper

  • We discussed last week how consolidation was likely, so far that has played out with the SPX back testing the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
  • We continue to watch short-term support at 4300, and we cannot be bearish if the S&P 500 is above 4300.
  • The Russell 2000 (IWM) is back to test support at $180; we would expect to see this hold as support, but a failure to hold would mean a trip to $170

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Jun 26
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: A Focus on AI and Technology Stocks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • A Focus on AI and Technology Stocks

A Focus on AI and Technology Stocks

By Cam Hui

  • The adoption of AI promises to be highly disruptive and has to potential to improve profitability of companies that adopt the technology.
  • It faces regulatory hurdles and risk-pricing challenges as insurance companies learn to price AI risk, but those problems are a few years away.
  • In the near term, the technology rally appears extended and may need a breather.

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Jun 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Consolidation Likely and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Consolidation Likely, But Little Reason to Be Bearish; Buys Within Biotech, Latin American Banks
  • Japan and Taiwan Add Levels

Consolidation Likely, But Little Reason to Be Bearish; Buys Within Biotech, Latin American Banks

By Joe Jasper

  • The S&P 500 is 1% above the 4300-4325 area which we anticipated would cap upside for 2023.
  • Our view since our 5/30/23 ETF Pathfinder is that we cannot be bearish if the SPX is above 4050, and we subsequently moved that line-in-the-sand up to 4165-4200 on 6/6/23.
  • We are moving that threshold up to 4300, which is short-term support to watch; a break below it could bring selling pressure.

Japan and Taiwan Add Levels

By Thomas Schroeder

  • Japan and Taiwan have been top bull bets in Asia and still a space we like adding. Dips to date have been shallow and must be factored into entry levels.
  • Japan and Taiwan have both shown impulsive rally structures as has India’s Nifty (a bit tired amid overbought readings).
  • An SPX bull turn will be used as a long trigger for the Nikkei and Taiwan (Asia). Late June cycle peak approaching.

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