Technical Analysis

• Our outlook remains bullish and we see the market in the midst of a significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October.
• We continue to expect support at 20-day MAs on $SPX and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), while support at current levels or the 50-day MA is likely on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
• Market dynamics continue to improve, giving us confidence that this bull run is likely to go at least another month into mid-January, and quite likely beyond.

• Mike Green explains how leveraged products on MSTR resemble a short straddle in their rebalancing requirements
• The two times leveraged long products, MSTU and MSTX, are unique due to their large size and underlying asset volatility, creating potential volume amplifying feedback loops
• The leveraged complex has contributed to the large premium of MSTR to the value of its bitcoin holdings, impacting ETFs forced to use options market due to limited leverage from swap providers

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• Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in full swing; continue to ride the trend higher.
• Our election day Compass report (11/5/24) was titled “Buy the Pullback,” and last week’s Compass (11/19/24) was similarly titled “Buy the Pullback Again” 
• We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and the early part of 2025, with small- and mid-caps leading the way, and for index support at 20-day MAs.

• Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500’s multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside healthy market dynamics which have continued to improve.
• Two weeks ago, our election day report (11/5/24) was titled “Buy the Pullback,” and with the SPX/QQQ/IWM pulling back to their 20-day MAs, it’s time to buy the pullback again.
• We continue to expect significant upside into year-end and early 2025, and we expect support at the 20-day MAs on the aforementioned indexes (though support at 50-day MAs is possible).

• Our outlook remains bullish following the S&P 500’s multi-month base breakout above 5670, alongside constructive market dynamics which have significantly improved over the past week.
• Last week’s 11/5/24 report titled “Buy the Pullback” discussed how we were buyers, expecting a strong end-of-year rally to start that day or the following day (day after the election)
• The strong rally officially started on election day, and all that is left to do is ride the trend higher into year-end and the early part of 2025

• Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report
• Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.
• The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market’s way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.

• Seller understanding that product may not sell immediately, similar to rainy day insurance with put options
• Tight correlation between supply, demand, and prices in liquid markets like put options
• Market risk climate currently influenced by high implied volatility due to upcoming events like elections, similar to date certain macro events in the past like Brexit or company earnings dates

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• The $SPX continues to hold below 5783, the upper-end of an important target/resistance area (5670-5783) we’ve discussed since our 8/13/24 Compass, just after SPX hit our 5100-5191 “expected pullback zone.”
• The current “breakout” above 5670 is an extraordinarily weak one, which suggests a false breakout/bull trap is brewing; SPX has spent nearly three weeks above 5670, with zero upside follow-through.
• As long as the SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives.

• Major indexes in the three largest global equity markets (U.S., Europe, Japan) all remain below critical resistances of 5783 on SPX, 5000-5120 on EURO STOXX 50, and 2740-2820 on TOPIX
• Additionally, broad global MSCI indexes (local currency) including the ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE all remain at/below resistance from their YTD highs; reduce exposure or shift to defensives.
• In late-July we discussed expectations for a 1-to 4-month pullback/consolidation period on MSCI ACWI. We believe it seems likely to last closer to four months, and potentially 4- to 6-months

• $SPX remains below 5783, the upper-end of important target/resistance area we’ve discussed for a month+ (5670-5783). 5670 was prior all-time high set in July, while 5783 is 2% above 5670.
• It’s hard to call it a “decisive” breakout if SPX isn’t even 2% above its prior high.  In 2007, SPX made a top after climbing 1-2% above its prior high.
• The 2007 topping analog has tracked the current market almost perfectly, with similar backdrops to today including new Fed cutting cycle, recession indicators going off, yield curve un-inverting, defensives outperforming