Category

Technical Analysis

Apr 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

Still Bearish/Cautious; Stick With Defensives; Emerging Market Opportunities

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int’l Compass) we had been expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
  • However, after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed in 4/1/25 and 4/3/25 reports how we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity, and we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious
  • While it is possible that the lows are in, we now are looking for the ACWI-US rally to fizzle, either here at $113.50-$115 or the 200-day MA (~$118).

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Apr 16
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

Expecting SPX Rally to Fizzle at 5490-5500 or 5785; Still Bearish/Cautious and Defensive

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-February(2/25/25) we were expecting an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.However,after getting the 10%+ pullback, we discussed 4/1/25 that we no longer saw it as a buying opportunity
  • We downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious. We then discussed last week(4/8/25)how it was a logical spot for a local bottom to develop at 4800-4820 on SPX and $402-$412 on QQQ. 
  • A rally sparked from there, but we now are looking for SPX rally to fizzle, either here at 5490-5500 (20-day MA) or the 200-day MA (currently 5754) or 5785 level

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Apr 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int’l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
  • But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int’l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
  • Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.

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Apr 09
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs; Still Bearish and Cautious and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs; Still Bearish and Cautious

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs; Still Bearish and Cautious

By Joe Jasper

  • Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. But that all changed in last week’s Compass (4/1/25), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious.
  • A historic selloff has ensued and significant damage has been done as market dynamics have worsened.
  • Until we see some base-building process develop alongside improving market dynamics, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the SPX is below its 200-day MA.

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Apr 06
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

Odds of a Prolonged Downturn Are Rising; We Are Cautious; Get Defensive

By Joe Jasper

  • We have been expecting near-term downside on ACWI-US and the S&P 500 since our February 27 Int’l Compass, when both ACWI-US and the S&P 500 displayed false breakouts.
  • Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we don’t see it as a buying opportunity, and we believe $115 support is not likely to hold on ACWI-US.
  • Therefore, we are cautious and would get defensive, as we believe the odds of a more prolonged downturn in global equities are rising.

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Apr 02
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

Cautious Outlook; Get Defensive and Sell Rallies; Upgrading Energy; Downgrading Technology

By Joe Jasper

  • Last week we discussed how evidence was pointing to a major low at 5500-5600 on the SPX, but now it appears more likely to just have been a local low
  • Market dynamics have continued to deteriorate to the point where we no longer see this as a buying opportunity.
  • We are cautious and would get defensive as long as the S&P 500 is below 5770-5780 and its 200-day MA; we believe we are in a “sell rallies” regime

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Mar 27
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

Major Low Likely in Place on S&P 500; Bullish Outlook Intact if Above 5500-5600

By Joe Jasper

  • In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside. Also said one or two 8-10% pullbacks in a given year on the SPX is common
  • And said to not be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
  • The SPX had a -10.3% peak-to-trough decline, with support showing up at 5500; close enough to our 10% pullback and 5600 level. This has been a stellar buy area

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Mar 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum

S&P 500, NYSE Comp, QQQ Find Initial Support; Strong Buying Demand Suggests Local Low at Minimum

By Joe Jasper

  • In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments. 
  • The  downward pressure has brought the S&P to the bottom of our range at 5600-5670.
  • Friday’s and Monday’s tape action alleviated oversold conditions as strong demand was a clear positive. We need the 5500-5600 level to hold in order to remain constructive.

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Mar 08
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

Upgrading Europe to Overweight; Monitoring U.S. (S&P 500) For a Downgrade; Buy Gold Miners and More

By Joe Jasper

  • We discussed last week (Feb. 27 Int’l Compass) how both ACWI-US and the S&P 500 displayed false breakouts, and to look for near-term pullbacks
  • We said expect pullbacks to range supports at $116 on ACWI-US and 5770-5850 or 5600-5670 on the S&P 500 in the coming weeks, where we would be buyers.
  • The S&P 500 is testing the 5770-5850 range now, while ACWI-US is testing its 200-day MA at $117. It is possible ACWI-US finds support here. Upgrading Europe to overweight

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Mar 05
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

By Joe Jasper

  • In last week’s 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments.
  • We said don’t be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are testing major confluence of support at 5770-5850 and $490-$500, respectively, the first of our potential bottom levels discussed last week.

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