Category

Technical Analysis

Jul 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Downgrading Materials to Underweight; Software Buys $MSTR $CRWD

By Joe Jasper

  • Mega-Cap growth names such as AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, GOOGL, and META have picked up the slack as semiconductors (SMH, SOXX, NVDA, AVGO, etc.) are simply consolidating after getting extended.
  • This was a possibility we discussed in last week’s Compass (6/25/24), which means we are not seeing any lasting rotation away from large-cap growth.
  • We remain bullish on all names listed (including the semiconductors), and we continue to recommend an overweight to large-cap growth (relative to value) as initially discussed in our 5/29/24 Compass

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Jun 29
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Reiterating Japan Overweight — Add Exposure; Nikkei 225 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Reiterating Japan Overweight — Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

Reiterating Japan Overweight — Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out

By Joe Jasper

  • Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. We continue to recommend buying dips as long as MSCI $ACWI and $EEM remain above important supports at $110 and $41-$42, respectively.
  • We are reiterating Japan as an Overweight — Add Exposure; Nikkei 225, TOPIX, TOPIX Small All Breaking Out. And 2+ year RS uptrends remain intact on TOPIX and Nikkei 225
  • We take a break from recommending Technology (though we are still bullish) and highlight buys within global Energy, Health Care, Telecommunications, and Utilities

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Jun 26
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

Rotation Is the Lifeblood of a Bull Market; Still Bullish; Supports at SPX 5370-5380, QQQ $468-469

By Joe Jasper

  • Semiconductors (SMH,SOXX,NVDA,AVGO) have been leadership since late-2022, but they’re extended and starting to see profit taking as market participants rotate into other laggard areas of the market (especially Energy).
  • The question is whether this new trend lasts a few days, or if this is the start of longer-term trend.
  • If there will be any lasting rotation away from Technology/semiconductors, SPX and QQQ would need to break strong short-term supports at 5370-5380 and $468-469, respectively. Until then, Tech/semis remain leadership

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Jun 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

Downgrading Europe to Market Weight; Europe Indexes Still Bullish (Price); Bullish Outlook Intact

By Joe Jasper

  • Not much has changed since our latest Int’l Compass from May 31, 2024 titled “Buy the Pullback.” 
  • We were buyers of the pullback in global equities (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, etc.) with important supports holding, combined with ongoing healthy market dynamics.
  • Supports are holding, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Continue to buy dips.

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Jun 19
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading Industrials and Transportation to Underweight

By Joe Jasper

  • Despite some more mixed signals, a majority of market dynamics still suggests a risk-on environment. Our bullish outlook since early November 2023 remains intact with SPX and QQQ uptrends intact.
  • Near-Term we continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MA and 21-day EMA on the SPX (currently 5325-5330) and QQQ (currently $460-462).
  • Longer-Term, we’re bullish as long as the SPX is above 5191 and QQQ is above $449. We’d need to see breakdowns below these levels in order to shift to neutral.

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Jun 16
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Gold Feels Heavy. Uptrend Intact but Better Cost Basis in near Term and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Gold Feels Heavy. Uptrend Intact but Better Cost Basis in near Term

Gold Feels Heavy. Uptrend Intact but Better Cost Basis in near Term

By Douglas Busch

  • Gold MONTHLY chart records back-to-back bearish shooting stars in April and May.
  • Steel stocks possibly bottoming on incessant tariff talks creating opportunity.
  • Silver looks technically better than gold and likely to outshine precious metal into year-end.

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Jun 12
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Weekly Compass – Mixed Signals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Compass – Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

Weekly Compass – Mixed Signals, Reasons for Caution

By Joe Jasper

  • The U.S. dollar has staged a false breakdown and is now on the cusp of a reversal.
  • False breakdown on 10-yr yield at the critical 4.35% level. Simply put, higher yields tend to pressure the equity markets.
  • IWM breaking to new RS lows, violating 7-month RS support. Quality related names continue to be leadership within the market, and Technology continues to dominate relative performance.

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Jun 01
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

Buy the Pullback; Market Dynamics Remain Healthy; Buys in Tech, Discretionary, Healthcare, Utilities

By Joe Jasper

  • Global MSCI indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) are pulling back following recent breakouts to multi-year highs. Europe, Japan also pulling back to uptrend supports.
  • Short-Term supports to watch-discussed in our May 23, 2024 Int’l Compass-include $110.50 on ACWI-US, $53.50 on ACWX-US, $80 on EFA-US, and $41-42 on EEM-US; buy this pullback. 
  • As long as these supports hold, we anticipate significantly higher prices ahead. Combination of supports holding and healthy market dynamics continues to validate our bullish outlook on global equities.

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May 30
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

By Joe Jasper

  • Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Few things are more bullish than indexes (SPX, NDX) breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction we had in 2022
  • Last week (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&P 500, with all gaps left unfilled.
  • Important short-term gap supports we are watching on SPX include 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101; so far 5250-5263 support has held. Also downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight

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May 28
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Commodity Comeback and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Commodity Comeback

Commodity Comeback

By Douglas Busch

  • S&P 5700 year end target remains intact after MONTHLY breakout. 
  • Copper and silver rally to resume with dollar potentially falling.
  • Semis continue to lead tech and look for software to join.

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