Singapore

• Mandarin owns the One Causeway Bay precinct which is likely worth more than the company’s current Enterprise Value ($2.4b) having recieved an offer of $3.8b for the site in 2017.

• For those unfamiliar, this site is being massively re-developed into retail and office- not a hotel as might be expected given the company.

• Mandarin is transitioning to a capital light hotel management model by selling its owned hotels and maintaining management contracts with the purchasers.

• Institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions through to May 16, with S$28.5 million of net institutional outflow, as 25 primary-listed companies conducted buybacks with a total consideration of S$32.5 million.
• Leading the net institutional outflow over the five sessions were Seatrium, UMS Holdings, Singapore Airlines, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Wilmar International, DBS, AEM Holdings, Jardine Matheson Holdings, Jardine Cycle & Carriage and City Developments.
• Between May 9 and 15, Raffles Medical Group executive chairman Loo Choon Yong acquired 2.6 million shares at an average price of S$1.03 per share.

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Softer US inflation data that came out the past week fuelled expectations of rate cuts once more.
• The US consumer price index increased 0.3 per cent from March to April but was lower than what markets were expecting.
• The iEdge S-Reit Index also rallied on Thursday, gaining 2 per cent.

The ongoing transformation of Singapore Post (SingPost) from a post and parcel delivery company into a global logistics operator appears to have slipped under the radar of investors and now offers an opportunity for investors to reassess its potential. We believe expansion into the Australian logistics market offers long-term growth and that historical issues surrounding structural weakness in postal volumes may be resolved by growth in replacement volumes from e-commerce and review of postal services in constructive engagement with the regulator. Implementing the March 2024 strategic review recommendations could help unlock value. We believe there is c 50% upside in the share price.

• Since mid-April we discussed how downside was limited on MSCI ACWI and EURO STOXX 50, and May 2nd discussed it was “quite possible” the lows were in.
• Now, the MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM indexes have all broken out to new multi-year highs. Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact; expect higher prices ahead.
• China (MSCI China) continues to lead the EM turnaround, and we remain bullish on the space. We highlight many large-cap EM buys within Communications, Technology, Discretionary; we remain bullish miners.

• Sea Limited (SE US) booked a strong set of 1Q2024 results from a GMV, revenue and adjusted EBITDA perspective, with fears of greater competition from TikTok failing to materialise. 
• The company has been investing in growth across all segments, with e-commerce driving and digital financial services driving growth but digital entertainment also seeing a return to growth mode. 
• Sea Limited continues to focus on its core competitiveness in pricing, improving service quality, and lowering the cost to serve through SPX Express, with advertising becoming a more meaningful contributor.  

• SCLX is filling a much-needed area of the health care sector, that of developing non-opioid pain relief products.
• The company already has commercialized products that are proven to improve patients’ lives.
• The company reported 1Q2024 results that were a little shy of estimates, but growth continues, and the product line should accelerate growth in the coming years.

• Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) has consistently traded through OCBC (OCBC SP)‘s Offer terms from the onset. 
• OCBC did not declare its S$25.60 cash Offer final. And someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, presumably towards negotiating a bump in terms.
• But what happens if GE’s free float falls <10% at the close of the Offer and GE is suspended? And OCBC has no intention of restoring the float?

• Grab‘s focus last year was offering more affordable products, which helped to increase its addressable market. FY2024 will see the rollout of a broader range of initiatives across economic segments. 
• This year Grab is rolling out more premium offerings and new initiatives, including advance bookings, family accounts, increased reviews, and new merchant features to grow revenue streams from advertising.
• The upcoming results are likely to reflect seasonal factors but should also reveal something about Grab’s new initiatives and the changing competitive environment, with GoTo investing more aggressively. 

• SCLX is filling a much-needed area of the health care sector, that of developing non-opioid pain relief products.
• The company already has commercialized products that are proven to improve patients’ lives.
• The company reported 1Q2024 results that were a little shy of estimates, but growth continues, and the product line should accelerate growth in the coming years.

MoneyHero is a leading South-East Asian personal finance aggregator and comparison platform, covering the full suite of personal finance products. Its goal is to educate and empower consumers on personal finance through engaging content and rewards on financial products. The company partners with leading local and global financial institutions to ensure it has the most attractive products and offers for its user base. Management has ambitious plans to grow market share and attractive product verticals, such as insurance. Having raised c $87m in net proceeds from a deSPAC transaction in October 2023, the company paid down all debt and had a net cash position of $68.6m at end FY23, meaning it is well capitalised to fund the acceleration in growth.

• CapitaLand Investment (CLI) led the buyback consideration tally, buying back 17,055,700 shares at an average price of S$2.61 per share.
• This brought the percentage of company shares bought back on the current mandate to 0.47 per cent.
• The preceding year’s buyback mandate saw CLI buy back 03 per cent of its issued shares (excluding treasury shares) between Sep 28, 2023, and Jan 26, 2024.

• This is our first report on MoneyHero Group and we look to provide a detailed account of the various assets owned by the company and the drivers that will be responsible for the company’s growth in the coming years.
• MoneyHero Group stands out as a compelling investment opportunity in the burgeoning financial services sector of Greater Southeast Asia.
• The company’s core competency lies in its sophisticated digital platforms that connect consumers with an extensive range of financial products, including credit cards, loans, and insurance, through seamless and user-friendly interfaces.

• OCBC (OCBC SP) has announced a voluntary unconditional general offer for Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) at S$25.60 per share, a 36.90% premium to the undisturbed price.
• OCBC aims to privatise Great Eastern by delisting resolutions or exercising compulsory acquisition rights. The offer has not been declared final.
• While the offer is reasonable, it is not a knockout bid which would comfortably allow OCBC to privatise through either option. A bump is highly likely.   

• Tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
• Six(!) new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Perpetual (PPT AU), Alps Logistics (9055 JP), Namoi Cotton (NAM AU)‘; Great Eastern (GE SP); Nihon Housing (4781 JP) and GAPack (468 HK)‘. 
• Key updates took place on: QANTM Intellectual Property (QIP AU), Adbri (ABC AU), L’Occitane (973 HK), Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), and Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP).

• OCBC (OCBC SP) has made a voluntary unconditional general Offer for the 11.56% in Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) not held. 
• The S$25.60 cash Offer for the life/non-life insurer is a 36.9% premium to last close; and a 30% discount to its S$36.59/share embedded value (as at 31st Dec 2023).
• The Offer is unconditional in all respects. This will trade tight.  A delisting Offer is next on the cards.

• AEM (AEM SP) published dismal 1Q24 results and kept its modest guidance for 1H24.
• AEM has announced new customer wins going into FY25 which should improve results materially next year. The sell-side has downgraded estimates aggressively making room for upside surprises next year.
• AEM has seen an implosion in investor confidence because of the inventory issues, and slow orders from its key customer Intel Corp (INTC US). Long-term investors should accumulate here. 

Yesterday, Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIRT) launched an exchange offer for the USD 7.25% 2024 notes maturing on June 19th, with an outstanding amount of USD 138.4 mn. The company has offered to exchange each of the USD 1,000 principal of the notes for USD 432 of USD 7.5% 2026 notes and a USD 600 cash payment. The funding will come from a credit facility of up to IDR 1.5 tn.

We recommend that holders of the 2024 notes participate in the offer. Considering that it requires 70% of holders to take part, holding out could cause the transaction to fall through, with LMIRT then defaulting on the notes.