Singapore

• On the 5th December, Gordan Tang (& his wife Celine) acquired 2.14% in Suntec REIT (SUN SP), lifting their stake to 31.45% from 29.31%, triggering a MGO.
• This is appears to be a technical Offer. The Offer price is S$1.16/share against a S$1.17/share undisturbed price. Timing, however, IS curious after ESR Group (1821 HK)‘s recent Offer.
• The Offer Doc is now out and shareholders can tender. At S$1.18/share as I type, zero tendering should occur. The Offer closes on the 20 January, unless extended.

• 40-45% of production forest areas in Vietnam certified for sustainable  management 
• VRG sold over 800 tons EUDR rubber netting an additional US$250/ton
• Member firms abroad readying to sign contracts on EUDR rubber

• Operators high on quantum jump in exports to Malaysia
• VRA Secretary-General says Vietnam keen on fully meeting EUDR
• Major challenge variety of sources including imports and mixing

• DFI Retail Group Holdings (DFI SP), a leading retail player in Asia, is navigating sector headwinds through strategic pivots and cost cuts to drive superior margins and returns.
• After hitting a 10-year low in early August, DFI Retail’s stock rebounded, driven by strong 1H2024 earnings that reflected the impact of management’s initiatives.
• With an attractive dividend yield, strong cash flow, and a positive earnings growth outlook, DFI Retail offers a low-risk, high-return opportunity for investors in 2025.

MoneyHero’s Q324 results show revenues up 6% y-o-y (9M24 +18%) and a smaller adjusted EBITDA loss, as expected. The important element of the narrative, though, is the emphasis on driving revenues in higher-margin product areas and increasing operating efficiency within the business. Group CFO Hao Qian has resigned to return to China, with the group FD, Danny Leung, stepping up on an interim basis. The market opportunity remains substantial, and with customer data now on a unified platform, MoneyHero is well placed to deliver improved outcomes for both providers and end consumers. Our forecasts are updated to show more moderate top-line growth through FY26e, generating stronger margins.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Continuum Green
• In the US, the third estimate for Q3/24 annualised GDP was revised upwards to 3.1% q-o-q (from 2.8% in the first and second estimates). Q3 personal consumption was raised to 3.7% (3.6% e / 3.5% p), and the core PCE price index to 2.2% (2.1% e / 2.1% p). Separately, November existing home sales grew at a quicker pace than expected at 4.8% m-o-m (3.2% e / 3.4% p) to 4.15 mn units, the most since March.
• Meanwhile, the Conference Board Leading Economic Index rose 0.3% to 99.7 in November, nearly reversing its 0.4% decline in October.

• Widespread caution around Chinese buying sentiment 
• Weakness in Yuan can pose significant challenge
• Trade data not very optimistic

• FY 2024-25 H1 witnesses 12% YoY growth in tire exports value 
• Motorcycle tire exports volume up by 37%; Columbia largest importer 
• Bridgestone to invest US$85 million for India expansion 

• Over the five trading sessions from Dec 6 to Dec 12, institutions were net sellers of Singapore stocks, leading to a net institutional outflow of S$104 million, reversing a quarter of the S$418 million net inflow over the preceding five sessions.
• Stocks that led the net institutional outflow over the five sessions through to Dec 12 were DBS Group Holdings, Capitaland Investment, SATS, Singapore Exchange, Mapletree Industrial Trust, Capitaland Integrated Comm Trust, Genting Singapore, Capitaland Ascendas REIT, Singapore Telecommunications and Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust.
• The five trading sessions saw more than 50 director interests and substantial shareholdings filed for close to 25 primary-listed stocks.

• We examine Geo Energy Resources (GERL SP), an Indonesian coal producer listed in Singapore, which has an opportunity to grow production/profitability by 150%/500% in two years. 
• For FY25, based on our assumptions (50 USD/ton coal price, ten million ton sales), the stock trades at 5x PE,3.7x EV-EBITDA, and a 6% dividend yield (30% payout ratio). 
• Subject to execution on the new TRA mine, we will see 25 mnt sales in FY27/28, resulting in 1.3x PE and >30% dividend yield (assuming a higher payout of 40%). 

• 5 Largest S-REITs’ equity fundraising in 2024-to-date Date Announced Gross Proceeds (S$m unless otherwise) Main use of proceeds CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust 3-Sep 1,108 Acquisition 19-Nov 1,086 Acquisition Elsewhere, CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust (CICT) also carried out a billion-dollar EFR this year, raising S$1.1 billion in September, comprising a S$350.3 million private placement and S$757.2 million preferential offering.

• January-October 2024 exports yield US$2.54 billion, up 17% YoY
• 405% rise in value YoY in exports to Malaysia during Jan-Oct 2024
• Michelin plans to source rice husks from Vietnam for tire-making

• 79% of ELTs consumed by end-use markets, up 10.5%
• Tire-derived fuel tops ELT use, followed by ground rubber
• Sumitomo Rubber USA announces closing of Buffalo plant

• Singapore Post (SPOST SP) is selling its key asset, Australian-based Freight Management Holdings (FMH), for an enterprise value of S$897.6mn, which will generate a gain on disposal of S$312.1mn.
• SingPost will apply the proceeds to paring down its Aussie dollar-denominated debt. SingPost will also consider, in due course, the payment of a special dividend.
• Once the FMH transaction completes, the board will “review and reset the Group’s strategic plan, with a continued focus on shareholder value“.

• Squeezed supply owing to rains lifts prices in domestic market
• Exports down 23.4% MoM at US$79.5 million in Sept
• Michelin seeks proactive policies to up rubber production 

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Continuum Green, Sunny Optical
• Wall Street has been expressing confusion over the Fed’s potential decision (according to minutes of the November meeting) to lower the rate on its overnight reverse repo facility (RRP) by 5 bps, possibly as early as next week.
• This adjustment comes alongside expectations of a quarter-point cut in the Fed’s main policy benchmark. 

• SCLX is filling a much-needed area of the health care sector, that of developing non-opioid pain relief products.
• The company already has commercialized products that are proven to improve patients’ lives.
• The company announced a deal with a developer of a Phase 2 drug with a large market potential to be the exclusive developer and have the right to commercialize the treatment targeting obesity and Alzheimer’s disease.

• NR prices stage a comeback but then undergo correction
• Rubber Board convenes series of producer meets to tackle challenges
• Rubber Board proposes a fee to issue NOC to import NR

• Over the five trading sessions from Nov 29 to Dec 5, institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks, leading to a net institutional inflow of S$418 million.
• Stocks that led the net institutional inflow over the five sessions until Dec 5 inclusive were DBS, Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust (Reit), Yangzijiang Shipbuilding, Sembcorp Industries, Singtel, Keppel, Thai Beverage, Seatrium, Jardine Matheson, and Singapore Airlines.
• Union Steel ranks among the 250 most-traded stocks this year, and among the 150 stocks that booked the highest net institutional inflow.