Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable, COSCO Shipping Holdings, Hitachi Energy India, Arwana Citramulia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • ENEOS Extends Tatsuta Electric (5809) Tender Offer Means They Don’t Have The Shares
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jul 2024); Tencent the Big Buy, but Few Banks and a Long Tail
  • NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Changes & Good Performance as Actives Start Trading
  • Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Top Notch Industrial with a Catalyst


ENEOS Extends Tatsuta Electric (5809) Tender Offer Means They Don’t Have The Shares

By Travis Lundy

  • ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) announced its deal for affiliate Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP) 18-plus months ago. China approvals held it up more than a year.
  • Last month, they launched. The sector was up a lot. TOPIX was up a lot. The stock had recently been trading through terms. But ENEOS didn’t bump the price.
  • A month later, and the tender was supposed to have closed Friday 19 July. It didn’t. ENEOS extended, for no reason, which suggests they don’t have the shares. 

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jul 2024); Tencent the Big Buy, but Few Banks and a Long Tail

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$19.2bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Tencent and ETFs stood out as large net buys.
  • I’ve thought national team was buying banks for months. This week, no banks showed in the top five net buys, and only 1 in the top ten.
  • It is somewhat perplexing that the flows just stopped. But that may be a sign of things to come. Confirmation may require a week or two.

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Changes & Good Performance as Actives Start Trading

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period nearing completion, there could be 14/15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 8.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.6bn (US$79m). With US$38bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
  • Performance of a long adds/short deletes trade was very good in March, and we could see a repeat over the next couple of months.

Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Top Notch Industrial with a Catalyst

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) is Indonesia’s leading ceramic tile producer catering to the mass market but expanding into the higher-end porcelain tile space competing with Chinese imports at lower costs.
  • The recent move by the government to extend the gas subsidy for the industry bodes well for Arwana given the strides it has already made in reducing gas consumption.
  • Arwana continues to expand its capacity, especially in higher-margin porcelain tiles, which will help to drive future growth and profitability. Valuations are attractive as capacity-driven growth kicks in.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Industrials: Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable, COSCO Shipping Holdings, Hitachi Energy India, Arwana Citramulia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • ENEOS Extends Tatsuta Electric (5809) Tender Offer Means They Don’t Have The Shares
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jul 2024); Tencent the Big Buy, but Few Banks and a Long Tail
  • NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Changes & Good Performance as Actives Start Trading
  • Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Top Notch Industrial with a Catalyst


ENEOS Extends Tatsuta Electric (5809) Tender Offer Means They Don’t Have The Shares

By Travis Lundy

  • ENEOS Holdings (5020 JP) announced its deal for affiliate Tatsuta Electric Wire & Cable (5809 JP) 18-plus months ago. China approvals held it up more than a year.
  • Last month, they launched. The sector was up a lot. TOPIX was up a lot. The stock had recently been trading through terms. But ENEOS didn’t bump the price.
  • A month later, and the tender was supposed to have closed Friday 19 July. It didn’t. ENEOS extended, for no reason, which suggests they don’t have the shares. 

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jul 2024); Tencent the Big Buy, but Few Banks and a Long Tail

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$19.2bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Tencent and ETFs stood out as large net buys.
  • I’ve thought national team was buying banks for months. This week, no banks showed in the top five net buys, and only 1 in the top ten.
  • It is somewhat perplexing that the flows just stopped. But that may be a sign of things to come. Confirmation may require a week or two.

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Changes & Good Performance as Actives Start Trading

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period nearing completion, there could be 14/15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 8.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.6bn (US$79m). With US$38bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
  • Performance of a long adds/short deletes trade was very good in March, and we could see a repeat over the next couple of months.

Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Top Notch Industrial with a Catalyst

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) is Indonesia’s leading ceramic tile producer catering to the mass market but expanding into the higher-end porcelain tile space competing with Chinese imports at lower costs.
  • The recent move by the government to extend the gas subsidy for the industry bodes well for Arwana given the strides it has already made in reducing gas consumption.
  • Arwana continues to expand its capacity, especially in higher-margin porcelain tiles, which will help to drive future growth and profitability. Valuations are attractive as capacity-driven growth kicks in.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Kokusai Electric , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), ASML Holding NV, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, SoftwareONE Holding, Cambricon Technologies Lt, Xiaomi Corp, Com2us Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement Price Could Be Determined Today; Index Impact Could Be Delayed
  • TSMC. Take The Pullback Gift
  • ASML Readthrough: Are There Signs of an Industry Slow Down?
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 19 Jul 2024): SB Bought, NB Sold, HK Crushed Vs A-Shares
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector
  • Private Equity Interest Is Back
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week
  • Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Tops India Smartphone Market; Samsung Falls to Third
  • Xiaomi (1810 HK): 2Q24 Shipments – High Growth and High Market Share
  • Korea Small Cap Gem #29: Com2Us


Kokusai Electric (6525 JP): Placement Price Could Be Determined Today; Index Impact Could Be Delayed

By Brian Freitas


TSMC. Take The Pullback Gift

By William Keating

  • TSMC guided Q324 revenues of $22.8 billion at the midpoint, up 9.5% QoQ and up 32% YoY
  • Increased full year guidance to be above mid-20% YoY growth in US dollar terms
  • Share price has declined ~14% from its 52 week high but still up >2x from its 52 week low. Many will view this pullback as a gift, we certainly do…

ASML Readthrough: Are There Signs of an Industry Slow Down?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • ASML’s results last week indicated continued strength in the semiconductor industry. We analyze the results to identify any potential signs of weakening or pauses in global industry momentum for Taiwan.
  • Net system bookings surged 54% QoQ and ASML reported rising utilization levels of its clients’ equipment. Inventory days rose significantly, but this is due to upcoming 2025 orderbook deliveries.
  • New US, Europe, and Japan fabs bolster strong revenue outlook into 2026E. Overall, robust industry demand persists according to ASML’s latest data, with no major signs of softness.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 19 Jul 2024): SB Bought, NB Sold, HK Crushed Vs A-Shares

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND inflow strong but SOEs not leading and Hang Seng down hard. Bank buying minimal. NORTHBOUND saw significant selling, but A-share indices generally strong on the week. Window-dressing?
  • AH Premia rose 3.3% on average. Really bad week for H vs A as Liquid Hs underperformed their As by 4%. Stunning week really. Relative performance a sea of red.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Strong TSMC & ASML Data Fails to Rally the Semiconductor Sector

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Taiwan Stocks Fall On Potential New U.S. Tech Restrictions for China & Potential Policy Shift from a Trump White House… Strong TSMC & ASML Results Fail to Rally the Sector
  • Even Tighter Technology Restrictions for China?  — US Could Use Special Rule to Restrict Selling of Products Made by Foreign Companies
  • We See TSMC’s Margins Increasing Much Higher Than Guidance in Long-Term; 2Q24 Shows Apple Ramping Up 

Private Equity Interest Is Back

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • SoftwareONE is currently considered a special situation case by the market, with its new Board of Directors being more receptive to a potential transaction, possibly above CHF 20/share.
  • Compelling stock narrative: strong balance sheet (10.3% of market cap in net cash&equivalents), low valuation (8.7x EV/NTM EBITDA, 17.5x Fwd P/E), shareholder return policy (buyback and dividend), and ongoing recovery.
  • My fair value estimate is CHF 20.04/share, which implies an undemanding 9.8x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA. SoftwareONE releases Q2 and H1 results on 21 August. Long.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB +19.3bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND sold everything. Consumer, Finance, and Energy hit hardest.
  • Net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly “short gamma”, but the net buys this week were of stocks previously a net sell. 

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Tops India Smartphone Market; Samsung Falls to Third

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)‘s smartphone shipments to India surged in Q2 2024, reclaiming the top spot, while Samsung slipped to third.
  • Consumer discretionary sales, including smartphones, were weak during the quarter due to elections, subdued demand, and extreme weather.
  • The upcoming festive season is crucial for sales, with customers anticipating new launches and better bargains. 5G device upgrades continue to drive growth in 2024.

Xiaomi (1810 HK): 2Q24 Shipments – High Growth and High Market Share

By Ming Lu

  • Xiaomi (XM)’s shipments increased by 29% YoY in 2Q24, which is the most rapid growth among the global top five.
  • Xiaomi is the only clear gainer of market share among the global top five.
  • We believe the stock has an upside of 35% and the target price is HK$22.30 for the end of 2024.

Korea Small Cap Gem #29: Com2Us

By Douglas Kim

  • Com2Us’s net cash (including long-term financial investments) is 151% of its market cap. It is trading at P/B ratio of only 0.45x. 
  • The company paid out 2,600 won in DPS in FY23. If we assume the same DPS, this would suggest a dividend yield of 6.7% at current price of 38,900 won. 
  • Com2Us is a turnaround story. It had an operating profit of 1.2 billion won in 1Q 2024, improving from an operating loss of 13.3 billion won in 1Q 2023. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Financials: NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Marked Higher & Vol Curve Inverts … Its All About the Budget


EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Marked Higher & Vol Curve Inverts … Its All About the Budget

By Sankalp Singh

  • Weekly IVs marked significantly higher. Options demand returns post holiday-shortened week. Market focuses on 23.07.2024 Budget & Corporate Earnings announcements. 
  • Put-Call Ratio compression + Rising IVs indicative of call-buying activity. Significant Open-Interest buildup seen in 25000 calls.
  • Vol Term-structure: Entire curve in Backwardation. Much of which can be attributed to the India Budget event. Curve expected to flatten out post event.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Copper, Gold, Iron Ore and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • GAPack (468 HK): Grinding Towards a Stalemate
  • Copper Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades, Copper Weak
  • Global Commodities: 2024 US Election Watch—Reassessing Implications for Commodities Under a Red Wave
  • Iron Ore Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Doing The Dance Between 95-130 USD/Ton, Use Iron Condors


GAPack (468 HK): Grinding Towards a Stalemate

By Arun George


Copper Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades, Copper Weak

By Sameer Taneja


Global Commodities: 2024 US Election Watch—Reassessing Implications for Commodities Under a Red Wave

By At Any Rate

  • Shift to the right in favor of Trump accelerated after assassination attempt
  • Republican momentum challenging expectations for a divided Congress
  • Gold and oil likely to benefit under GOP control, with potential increase in demand and production respectively

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Iron Ore Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Doing The Dance Between 95-130 USD/Ton, Use Iron Condors

By Sameer Taneja


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Health Care: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Elpiscience Biopharmaceuticals and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (22 Jul) – China TCM, GA Pack, Huafa, Samson, CPMC, Fancl, Tatsuta, Capitol
  • Pre-IPO Elpiscience Biopharmaceuticals – Will Investors Still Buy in These Stories?



Pre-IPO Elpiscience Biopharmaceuticals – Will Investors Still Buy in These Stories?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Elpiscience is incubated by LAV from the very beginning.The Company has strong capital operation capabilities, but the story of “founding team’s decent background + star cornerstone investors” doesn’t work anymore.
  • Elpiscience’s pipelines are still in early stage. However, investors are rational. They will no longer believe in those “good stories”, but focus more on cash flow and drug sales revenue.
  • Elpiscience’s business model has raised concerns about its future product sales scale and profits.The market may not recognize the post-investment valuation of US$599 million if check the valuation of peers.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Consumer: Prosus NV, ASICS Corp, Toyota Motor, Blue Moon Group Holdings, Alimentation Couche-Tard , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • The Naspers/Tencent & Prosus/Tencent Stub: Entry Levels so Attractive It Looks Too Good to Be True
  • ASICS Placement Updates – Share Pop Done, Now Needs to Correct
  • ECM Weekly (22nd July 2024) – Kokusai, Honda, ASICS, ZIP, Invincible, Hyundai, Premier, Timee, Sanil
  • Blue Moon Group (6993) – Monday, Apr 22, 2024
  • Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (ATD.) – Sunday, Apr 21, 2024
  • The Goal of 30% Female Board Members Is Somewhat Hard to Achieve Given the Current Situation


The Naspers/Tencent & Prosus/Tencent Stub: Entry Levels so Attractive It Looks Too Good to Be True

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Discounts likely set for a re-rating as market continues to overreact to appointment of CEO amid good set of results.
  • The discounts of both Naspers and Prosus have continued to widen since the appointment of Fabricio Bloisi to Group CEO was announced in May (effective 10 July).
  • At the end of June, the group released its strongest set of results in years, delivering on consolidated ecommerce profitability ahead of target.

ASICS Placement Updates – Share Pop Done, Now Needs to Correct

By Sumeet Singh

  • A group of shareholders aims to raise around US$1.3bn via selling around 11% of ASICS Corp (7936 JP).
  • In our earlier note, we talked about the placement and ran the deal through our ECM framework.
  • In this note, we talk about the updates and share price performance since then.

ECM Weekly (22nd July 2024) – Kokusai, Honda, ASICS, ZIP, Invincible, Hyundai, Premier, Timee, Sanil

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, the coming week  to see two more listing, with both likely to do well.
  • On the placement front, Japan continued to dominate the ECM flows, with India, Taiwan and Australia joining in.

Blue Moon Group (6993) – Monday, Apr 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Blue Moon started with a kitchen spray cleanser in 1994, but now focuses on liquid detergents in China
  • While they have strong marketing and scale, their competitive advantages are weak compared to domestic competitor Liby
  • Intensifying competition and various factors have led to a decline in Blue Moon’s market share, raising uncertainty about their future in the industry

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc (ATD.) – Sunday, Apr 21, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Alimentation Couche-Tard is a global leader in convenience stores and gas stations, with a stable and recession-resistant business model.
  • The company has a strong management team focused on consolidating the fragmented c-store industry and generating solid free cash flow.
  • ATD stock is trading at a reasonable multiple with potential for mid-teens FCF per share growth, making it an attractive long-term investment opportunity.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


The Goal of 30% Female Board Members Is Somewhat Hard to Achieve Given the Current Situation

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The fact that institutional investors consider whether a company has zero female board members when voting has led to decrease in the number of companies with zero female board members.
  • Since fewer companies have zero female board members but a minority of companies have at least two female board members, achieving 30% female board members seems somewhat of a hurdle.
  • While tenure and concurrent service of female board members are problematic, the starting point is to ensure that women have  a 30% voice on the board and to promote diversity.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Thailand: Intouch Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Weekly Deals Digest (21 Jul) – Intouch/Gulf, China TCM, Huafa, Samson, Zhihu, Asics, Kokusai, Timee


Weekly Deals Digest (21 Jul) – Intouch/Gulf, China TCM, Huafa, Samson, Zhihu, Asics, Kokusai, Timee

By Arun George


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Singapore: Thai Beverage and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Consumer Tales & Trends #July 11-20: THBEV SP Swap Deal, Bad Debts in Thailand, AI in Beauty.


Consumer Tales & Trends #July 11-20: THBEV SP Swap Deal, Bad Debts in Thailand, AI in Beauty.

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Welcome to Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.
  • Thai Beverage (THBEV SP)‘s proposed swap deal with promoter company raises several questions for shareholders. Start with the back story about how Fraser And Neave (FNN SP) joined the group.
  • Bigger weddings could become a trend in India – Read why we like Kalyan Jewellers(KALYANKJ IN) . Also, household debt in Thailand as % of GDP is highest in ASEAN.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief South Korea: Samsung C&T and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Examining Market Interest in the Potential Samsung C&T and SDS Restructuring


Examining Market Interest in the Potential Samsung C&T and SDS Restructuring

By Sanghyun Park

  • Maximizing Lee Jae-yong’s dividend income is crucial, making Samsung SDS’s ₩5.5T cash assets key, thus prompting the merger of Samsung C&T and Samsung SDS’s BPO division.
  • With no legal risks for Lee Jae-yong, Samsung C&T needs the merger to increase assets and avoid forced holding company conversion, making the acquisition of Samsung SDS’s BPO division necessary.
  • We should target a setup for likely appraisal rights for C&T. Monitor and capture the spread between the stock price and appraisal rights exercise price.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars