Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Nippon Yusen Kk, Canvest Environmental Protection Group, Doosan Bobcat Inc, Ryanair Holdings, Rentokil Initial, Symbotic, CoreCivic and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nippon Yusen (9101) – Guidance Revision Up Still Conservative, Means More Capital Return Eventually
  • Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Grandblue’s Pre-Condition Privatisation at HK$4.90
  • Robotics+Bobcat Merger: Merger Ratio Revision Possibility & Arb Spread Recalculations
  • Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions
  • Trapping the Royal Rat-Catcher
  • SYM: Symbolic Overvaluation, Sell
  • CXW: Strong History of Contract Retention Preview 2Q24 Results


Nippon Yusen (9101) – Guidance Revision Up Still Conservative, Means More Capital Return Eventually

By Travis Lundy

  • Nippon Yusen Kk (9101 JP) today announced an upward revision of H1 and full-year guidance. It was a dramatic increase.
  • The breakdown of the OP and RP numbers suggests a huge gain in containers in Q1 and into Q2. The breakdown of revenue and OP changes suggested substantial H2 conservatism.
  • On a capital-adjusted basis, Nippon Yusen is now slightly cheap vs its domestic peers and has shown a willingness to spend its excess cash on buybacks. Expect more.

Canvest Environmental (1381 HK): Grandblue’s Pre-Condition Privatisation at HK$4.90

By Arun George

  • Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK) disclosed a pre-conditional Cayman scheme privatisation from Grandblue Environment Co A (600323 CH) at HK$4.90 per share, an 11.6% premium to the last close price.
  • The precondition relates to the completion of capital injection into the offeror, Grandblue shareholder, and regulatory approvals. The heavy presence of SOE entities makes this a formality.
  • While not a knockout bid, the offer (which is final) is reasonable. Shareholders with blocking stakes will be supportive. Timing is the key risk as the offer is long-dated.

Robotics+Bobcat Merger: Merger Ratio Revision Possibility & Arb Spread Recalculations

By Sanghyun Park

  • During Kim Byung-hwan’s hearing, he acknowledged market concerns about the Doosan merger, increasing skepticism about Doosan’s ability to maintain the original merger ratio.
  • Calculating Bobcat’s net asset value using the net asset value method yields approximately ₩6.1T, derived from ₩5.95T in year-end equity plus ₩0.13T in adjustments.
  • Reassess arb trading opportunities; with no short hedge for Robotics, consider an outright long position in Bobcat if its swap price is revised and the spread widens.

Ryanair – FY25 Weakness Suggests a “normalization” and Prompts Structural Industry Questions

By Neil Glynn

  • Ryanair issued a stark warning on summer pricing today with 1Q25 results and we cut our FY25 net income 31% accordingly.
  • Our forecasts represent a re-set of unitary economics to pre-pandemic levels and it is difficult to plot improvement unless consolidation benefits or winter surgery help FY26.
  • Ryanair’s cost advantage has widened markedly against peers, justifying a strategy of continued market share focus as competitors face greater challenges.

Trapping the Royal Rat-Catcher

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • According to The Sunday Times, Philip Jansen is reportedly planning a takeover bid for Rentokil Initial (RTO LN), a FTSE 100 pest control company, with private equity backing.
  • Jansen plans to boost Rentokil’s US performance and enhance its integration with Terminix, with the potential to market consolidation. Closest comparable Rollins trades at 33.7x EV/NTM EBIT vs. Rentokil’s 15.7x.
  • As a global leader in pest control and hygiene services, Rentokil boasts a strong market position and brand recognition. Rentokil will report its H1 results on 25 July. Long.

SYM: Symbolic Overvaluation, Sell

By Hamed Khorsand

  • We are initiating coverage of Symbotic (SYM) with a Sell Rating and $10 target. 
  • The latest quarterly report from SYM suggests there could be little in the form of catalysts with the biggest news being related to a business owned by the CEO
  • We believe investors are putting too much reliance on SYM generating revenue from Wal-Mart (WMT) even though WMT is also using SYM’s competition for warehouse automation. 

CXW: Strong History of Contract Retention Preview 2Q24 Results

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • We remain optimistic about CXW’s new business activities, operating improvements and cost containment efforts.
  • Over time, we expect occupancies at CXW facilities to continue to increase, the pending ICE termination of services at CXW’s South Texas Family Residential Center notwithstanding, as ICE & multiple government entities seek capacity.
  • CXW also continues to strengthen its balance sheet, with a 2Q24 debt offering concurrent with a tender offer for 2026 8.25% notes.

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Daily Brief Consumer: ASICS Corp, Fancl Corp, Sun Corp, Sunny Optical Technology Group, Warehouse Group Limited, Trent Ltd, Kumho Tire Co, Thai Beverage, Bloks Group and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • ASICS (7936 JP): The Current Playbook
  • Fancl (4921 JP): Evaluating the Potential of Kirin (2503 JP) Offer Bump
  • True Wind Raises Partial TOB Price for Sun Corp (6736 JP) By 8%. Not Enough.
  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (July 22)
  • The Warehouse Group (WHS NZ): Tindall (Potentially) Reloads
  • NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow, Big Impact, Big Positioning
  • Block Deal Sale of Kumho Tire: More Shares Likely to Be Sold by Creditors
  • Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) – Increasingly Streamlined SEA F&B Play
  • Bloks Group Pre-IPO – The Positives – Wide Portfolio of Established IPs
  • Bloks Group Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Concentration Risk Is Concerning, and Limited Overseas Reach


ASICS (7936 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the US$1.4 billion secondary placement announcement, ASICS Corp (7936 JP)’s shares are up 0.9% from the undisturbed price of JPY2,564 per share (12 July).
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Asics’ shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 23 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Fancl (4921 JP): Evaluating the Potential of Kirin (2503 JP) Offer Bump

By Arun George

  • Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s JPY8,620 offer for Fancl Corp (4921 JP) closes on 29 July. The shares have traded above terms for 25 out of the 26 trading days.
  • MY.Alpha Management has amassed 10.3 million shares (8.51% ownership ratio) with several purchases above terms. MY.Alpha could catalyse other shareholders to rally against a light offer. 
  • The emergence of MY.Alpha, the high volume above terms, peers re-rating, the required minority acceptance rate, and an offer unattractive to historical trading ranges increase the probability of a bump. 

True Wind Raises Partial TOB Price for Sun Corp (6736 JP) By 8%. Not Enough.

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, the final day of the Tender Offer that True Wind Capital launched on 10 June 2024 to buy 19% of Sun Corp (6736 JP), TWC raised its price to ¥4,750/share./
  • They also lowered their minimum from 3.7934mm shares (17.0%) to 3.3472mm shares (15.0%).
  • As Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) had traded higher, SunCorp had too, and even though shares fell today, they are at ¥4,785/share.

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (July 22)

By David Mudd


The Warehouse Group (WHS NZ): Tindall (Potentially) Reloads

By David Blennerhassett

  • General merchandise retailer Warehouse Group Limited (WHS NZ) (TWG) has announced it has received an approach from Stephen Tindall and PE outfit, Adamantem Capital Partners
  • Founder and major shareholder Tindall holds a shade over 50%. He launched a $1.6bn privatisation attempt in 2006, but Foodstuffs and Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU) effectively blocked the Offer.
  • The approach arrives after TWG’s shares trade around multi-year lows. 

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow, Big Impact, Big Positioning

By Brian Freitas


Block Deal Sale of Kumho Tire: More Shares Likely to Be Sold by Creditors

By Douglas Kim

  • Woori Bank completed a block deal sale of 11 million shares of Kumho Tire Co (073240 KS) (3.83% of outstanding shares) on 18 July. 
  • After the recent sales by Woori Bank and the Export-Import Bank of Korea, the creditors’ stakes in Kumho Tire has been reduced to 19.17%.
  • Despite Kumho Tire’s recent improvement in financial performance, we are more concerned about the additional stake sale by the financial institutions that still own 19.2% stake in the company. 

Thai Beverage (THBEV SP) – Increasingly Streamlined SEA F&B Play

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Thai Beverage will offload its entire stake in Frasers Property Ltd to TCC Assets in a share swap for an increased share in Fraser And Neave streamlining its business focus.
  • The share swap values Fraser And Neave on a par with peers which is at a significant premium to the share price but Fraser And Neave was excessively undervalued.
  • Thai Beverage deserves to trade on a higher multiple given its pure-play status and a succession of recent restructurings including Serm Suk and Oishi Holdings. 

Bloks Group Pre-IPO – The Positives – Wide Portfolio of Established IPs

By Clarence Chu

  • Bloks Group (1850960D CH) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Bloks Groups (Bloks) operates in the toy segment where it primarily assembles character and brick-based toys.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Bloks Group Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Concentration Risk Is Concerning, and Limited Overseas Reach

By Clarence Chu

  • Bloks Group (1850960D CH) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Bloks Groups (Bloks) operates in the toy segment where it primarily assembles character and brick-based toys.
  • In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, KakaoBank , Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust PLC, Consorcio ARA, Sino-Ocean Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX’s Plan to Integrate KOSPI & KOSDAQ into a Tiered System: Trading Considerations
  • Kakao’s Kim Beom-Su Arrested: Analyzing Its Impact on Related Companies
  • Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust – Economic transition driving growth opportunities
  • Actinver Research – Housing Sector : Building a More Profitable Future (Sector Update)
  • Morning Views Asia: Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings, Reliance Industries, Sino-Ocean Service


KRX’s Plan to Integrate KOSPI & KOSDAQ into a Tiered System: Trading Considerations

By Sanghyun Park

  • The major framework of this realignment is likely decided, integrating KOSPI and KOSDAQ into a tiered system based on liquidity, market cap, and financial status, with periodic replacements.
  • The KOSPI 200’s continued existence is uncertain under the new realignment plan, which may shift its role to the value-up index, resembling Japan’s market restructuring model.
  • The first-tier market’s entry requirements will likely reflect value-up index criteria, suggesting greater speculative money movement toward the value-up index starting in September.

Kakao’s Kim Beom-Su Arrested: Analyzing Its Impact on Related Companies

By Sanghyun Park

  • Kakao’s Kim Beom-su has been arrested over alleged stock price manipulation in the SM Entertainment buyout, marking a new peak in the company’s legal troubles.
  • Kakao Corp’s stock might drop due to the absence of a key figure. KakaoBank could also struggle from uncertainty about its largest shareholder and weakened business ties.
  • Kakao’s potential sale of SM Entertainment shares could initially hurt the stock price, but potential bidding interest might boost it.

Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust – Economic transition driving growth opportunities

By Edison Investment Research

Baillie Gifford China Growth Trust (BGCG) focuses on innovative, growing Chinese companies with exposure to the massive opportunities generated by China’s vast market, its positive long-term economic outlook and its transition to a more diversified, innovation-led growth model. BGCG’s performance has lagged the declining market over recent years, despite the strong operational performance of most of its portfolio holdings. But the Chinese New Year heralded an improvement in market sentiment and, in recent months, BGCG has made outright gains and outperformed the market. In the three months to end-June 2024, the trust returned 3.3% in NAV terms, compared to a benchmark return of 0.4%. Its managers are cautiously optimistic about the prospects for the economy and the trust, and they have been taking advantage of still low valuations to enhance exposure to China’s best high-growth companies across a range of industries.


Actinver Research – Housing Sector : Building a More Profitable Future (Sector Update)

By Actinver

  • The housing sector in Mexico has solid fundamentals, with attractive growth expectations for listed developers considering their healthy financial position and access to financing sources.
  • As a result, these companies are poised to capture the increased demand that the housing deficit generates during the coming years.
  • Since the start of the bankruptcy processes of the three largest housing developers (GEO, HOMEX, and URBI) in 2014, housing production has maintained a downward trend.

Morning Views Asia: Powerlong Commercial Management Holdings, Reliance Industries, Sino-Ocean Service

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Health Care: SAI Life Sciences, Saint Bella, Oneness Biotech and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • SAI Life Sciences Pre-IPO Tear Sheet
  • Pre-IPO Saint Bella – The Outlook for Future Performance Growth Is Highly Uncertain
  • Oneness Biotech (4743 TT): Marketing Progress of Fespixon in China Opens a New Revenue Stream


SAI Life Sciences Pre-IPO Tear Sheet

By Tina Banerjee

  • SAI Life Sciences (SAILS12 IN) is planning to raise INR50B, consisting of INR8B worth of fresh issue and the rest will be OFS. 
  • Out of the proceeds from fresh issue, the company intends to utilize INR6B for repayment/pre-payment, in full or part, of all or certain outstanding borrowings availed by the company.
  • Sai Life Sciences is the fastest-growing Indian CRDMOs among listed Indian peers in terms of revenue as well as EBITDA CAGR during FY22–24.

Pre-IPO Saint Bella – The Outlook for Future Performance Growth Is Highly Uncertain

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • SAINT BELLA’s revenue growth fluctuated because the pandemic led to the delay in the pregnancy plan of many families and an increase in the rate of abortion or miscarriage. 
  • The increasing contract liabilities indicate that short-term performance growth of SAINT BELLA is guaranteed, but the declining fertility rates in China will bring challenges to SAINT BELLA’s long-term growth momentum.
  • After Series B round financing in 2020, post-investment valuation was already about US$100 million. Valuation of SAINT BELLA should be higher than Aidigong Maternal & Child Health Limited (286 HK).

Oneness Biotech (4743 TT): Marketing Progress of Fespixon in China Opens a New Revenue Stream

By Tina Banerjee

  • Oneness Biotech (4743 TT) entered into an exclusive agreement with China Resources Dubl Crne Phrmctl (600062 CH) for commercialization of Fespixon in China, Hong Kong, and Macau.
  • Fespixon is approved in China as the first new drug for diabetic foot ulcer. Inclusion of the drug in NRDL is the next important milestone.
  • During 1H24, Oneness Biotech reported revenue of NT$57M, up 36% YoY. With expanding scale of operation, gross profit margin is improving (1Q24: 62.5% vs. 1Q23: 47.9%). Net loss is decreasing.

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Daily Brief Australia: Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Iron Ore Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Doing The Dance Between 95-130 USD/Ton, Use Iron Condors


Iron Ore Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Doing The Dance Between 95-130 USD/Ton, Use Iron Condors

By Sameer Taneja


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Daily Brief South Korea: Com2us Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Small Cap Gem #29: Com2Us


Korea Small Cap Gem #29: Com2Us

By Douglas Kim

  • Com2Us’s net cash (including long-term financial investments) is 151% of its market cap. It is trading at P/B ratio of only 0.45x. 
  • The company paid out 2,600 won in DPS in FY23. If we assume the same DPS, this would suggest a dividend yield of 6.7% at current price of 38,900 won. 
  • Com2Us is a turnaround story. It had an operating profit of 1.2 billion won in 1Q 2024, improving from an operating loss of 13.3 billion won in 1Q 2023. 

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Arwana Citramulia and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Top Notch Industrial with a Catalyst


Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) – Top Notch Industrial with a Catalyst

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Arwana Citramulia (ARNA IJ) is Indonesia’s leading ceramic tile producer catering to the mass market but expanding into the higher-end porcelain tile space competing with Chinese imports at lower costs.
  • The recent move by the government to extend the gas subsidy for the industry bodes well for Arwana given the strides it has already made in reducing gas consumption.
  • Arwana continues to expand its capacity, especially in higher-margin porcelain tiles, which will help to drive future growth and profitability. Valuations are attractive as capacity-driven growth kicks in.

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Daily Brief United States: Nrg Energy Inc, Copper, Gitlab , Brookfield Renewable , Evergy , Gold, Essential Utilities , Atmos Energy, Avangrid , Aes Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • NRG Energy Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Expansion of Smart Home and Consumer Energy Platforms Is A Key Growth Catalyst! – Financial Forecasts
  • Copper Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades, Copper Weak
  • GitLab Is A Possible Acquisition Target For Datadog & Others But At What Valuation? – Financial Forecasts
  • Brookfield Renewable Corporation: Initiation of Coverage
  • Evergy Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Is Its Focus on Economic Development and Large Load Customers Paying Off? – Major Drivers
  • Global Commodities: 2024 US Election Watch—Reassessing Implications for Commodities Under a Red Wave
  • Essential Utilities Inc.: Initiation of Coverage
  • Atmos Energy Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – What Is Their Core Business Strategy? – Major Drivers
  • Avangrid Inc (AGR) – Sunday, Apr 21, 2024
  • The AES Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Moat? – Major Drivers


NRG Energy Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Expansion of Smart Home and Consumer Energy Platforms Is A Key Growth Catalyst! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • NRG Energy, Inc. recently reported a strong start to 2024, with business performance exceeding expectations and an affirmation of the 2024 financial guidance.
  • Management highlighted transformative trends in power demand, primarily driven by electrification, generative AI, and data center growth, which open promising prospects for the power sector.
  • Furthermore, NRG is strategically positioned to benefit from tightening supply and demand dynamics in key markets, leveraging its diversified generation portfolio and consumer technology platform.

Copper Tracker July 22nd, 2024: Physical/​Equity Screens And Trades, Copper Weak

By Sameer Taneja


GitLab Is A Possible Acquisition Target For Datadog & Others But At What Valuation? – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • GitLab has recently been in the news for receiving acquisition interest with one of the rumored parties interested in acquiring the company being Datadog.
  • The company has had a decent financial performance off-late and has a lot of interesting facets to its business making it an attractive acquisition target.
  • In its first quarter of the fiscal year 2025, GitLab reported a 33% increase in revenue, with significant year-over-year margin expansion, reflecting robust growth and operational efficiency.

Brookfield Renewable Corporation: Initiation of Coverage

By Baptista Research

  • Brookfield Renewable reported mixed results in its fourth quarter 2023 earnings, presenting both challenges and advancements in its operational and financial strategies.
  • The company, a leader in renewable energy solutions, demonstrated robust operational success by increasing its funds from operations, driven primarily by organic growth and strategic acquisitions.
  • Notably, the deployment of $9 billion into diverse opportunities highlights Brookfield Renewable’s aggressive capital investment strategy, aiming to enhance its global footprint in the renewable sector.

Evergy Inc.: Initiation of Coverage – Is Its Focus on Economic Development and Large Load Customers Paying Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Evergy, Inc. reported its financial results for the first quarter of 2024, indicating a mix of strengths and challenges impacting its performance.
  • The company delivered adjusted earnings of $0.54 per share, down from $0.59 per share in the same period the previous year.
  • This reduction in earnings per share can be attributed largely to increased costs, including higher operations and maintenance expenses, depreciation and amortization expenses, and interest expenses.

Global Commodities: 2024 US Election Watch—Reassessing Implications for Commodities Under a Red Wave

By At Any Rate

  • Shift to the right in favor of Trump accelerated after assassination attempt
  • Republican momentum challenging expectations for a divided Congress
  • Gold and oil likely to benefit under GOP control, with potential increase in demand and production respectively

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Essential Utilities Inc.: Initiation of Coverage

By Baptista Research

  • Essential Utilities has reported a robust first quarter for 2024.
  • The company, during this period, achieved GAAP earnings of $0.97 per share, benefiting significantly from the gain on sale resulting from the closure of energy projects earlier in January.
  • Despite the warmer weather impacting the demand for its gas utility, Essential Utilities has shown strong operational performance across both its Gas and Water sectors.

Atmos Energy Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – What Is Their Core Business Strategy? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Atmos Energy Corporation has presented a robust fiscal performance for the second quarter of 2024, showing notable advancements and developments across various segments.
  • The company reported a year-to-date net income of $743 million, translating to earnings per share of $4.93, with an updated guidance range of $6.70 to $6.80 for the fiscal year.
  • These figures represent a performance uptick and reflect the ongoing efforts of Atmos Energy to modernize and expand its services.

Avangrid Inc (AGR) – Sunday, Apr 21, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • AGR minority-squeeze out arbitrage presents a profitable opportunity for arbitrage investors
  • Buffett’s endorsement of arbitrage as a cash management strategy adds credibility to potential returns
  • Current premium AGR is trading at indicates confidence in a higher offer, making it an attractive short-term investment opportunity for higher returns

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


The AES Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Moat? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • AES Corporation held a financial review for the first quarter of 2024, wherein they discussed the company’s performance and future plans extensively.
  • The company announced adjusted EBITDA with tax attributes of $863 million, adjusted EBITDA of $635 million, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) at $0.50.
  • These results show AES Corporation’s ability to meet its targeted outcomes and reflect resilience amidst prevailing economic conditions like high interest rates and inflation.

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Daily Brief India: NIFTY Index, Hitachi Energy India and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Marked Higher & Vol Curve Inverts … Its All About the Budget
  • NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Changes & Good Performance as Actives Start Trading


EQD / NSE Vol Update / IVs Marked Higher & Vol Curve Inverts … Its All About the Budget

By Sankalp Singh

  • Weekly IVs marked significantly higher. Options demand returns post holiday-shortened week. Market focuses on 23.07.2024 Budget & Corporate Earnings announcements. 
  • Put-Call Ratio compression + Rising IVs indicative of call-buying activity. Significant Open-Interest buildup seen in 25000 calls.
  • Vol Term-structure: Entire curve in Backwardation. Much of which can be attributed to the India Budget event. Curve expected to flatten out post event.

NIFTY MIDCAP150 Index Rebalance Preview: 14 Changes & Good Performance as Actives Start Trading

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period nearing completion, there could be 14/15 changes for the NIFTY Midcap 150 Index at the September rebalance.
  • Estimated one-way turnover is 8.2% resulting in a one-way trade of INR 6.6bn (US$79m). With US$38bn tracking the index actively, the impact on the stocks will be much larger.
  • Performance of a long adds/short deletes trade was very good in March, and we could see a repeat over the next couple of months.

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Daily Brief China: Prosus NV, China Traditional Chinese Medicine, Greatview Aseptic Packaging, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), COSCO Shipping Holdings, Cambricon Technologies Lt, Xiaomi Corp, Elpiscience Biopharmaceuticals and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • The Naspers/Tencent & Prosus/Tencent Stub: Entry Levels so Attractive It Looks Too Good to Be True
  • Merger Arb Mondays (22 Jul) – China TCM, GA Pack, Huafa, Samson, CPMC, Fancl, Tatsuta, Capitol
  • GAPack (468 HK): Grinding Towards a Stalemate
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 19 Jul 2024): SB Bought, NB Sold, HK Crushed Vs A-Shares
  • HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jul 2024); Tencent the Big Buy, but Few Banks and a Long Tail
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week
  • Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Tops India Smartphone Market; Samsung Falls to Third
  • Xiaomi (1810 HK): 2Q24 Shipments – High Growth and High Market Share
  • China Consumption Weekly (2024 Jul 22): Xiaomi, Guangzhou Automobile, NIO, AAPL, Starbucks
  • Pre-IPO Elpiscience Biopharmaceuticals – Will Investors Still Buy in These Stories?


The Naspers/Tencent & Prosus/Tencent Stub: Entry Levels so Attractive It Looks Too Good to Be True

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Discounts likely set for a re-rating as market continues to overreact to appointment of CEO amid good set of results.
  • The discounts of both Naspers and Prosus have continued to widen since the appointment of Fabricio Bloisi to Group CEO was announced in May (effective 10 July).
  • At the end of June, the group released its strongest set of results in years, delivering on consolidated ecommerce profitability ahead of target.


GAPack (468 HK): Grinding Towards a Stalemate

By Arun George


A/H Premium Tracker (To 19 Jul 2024): SB Bought, NB Sold, HK Crushed Vs A-Shares

By Travis Lundy

  • The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
  • SOUTHBOUND inflow strong but SOEs not leading and Hang Seng down hard. Bank buying minimal. NORTHBOUND saw significant selling, but A-share indices generally strong on the week. Window-dressing?
  • AH Premia rose 3.3% on average. Really bad week for H vs A as Liquid Hs underperformed their As by 4%. Stunning week really. Relative performance a sea of red.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 19 Jul 2024); Tencent the Big Buy, but Few Banks and a Long Tail

By Travis Lundy

  • SOUTHBOUND was again a net buyer, for HK$19.2bn this week, on smallish two-way volumes. Tencent and ETFs stood out as large net buys.
  • I’ve thought national team was buying banks for months. This week, no banks showed in the top five net buys, and only 1 in the top ten.
  • It is somewhat perplexing that the flows just stopped. But that may be a sign of things to come. Confirmation may require a week or two.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 19 July 2024): A Big Broad Sell in Third Plenum Week

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB +19.3bn of A-shares. NORTHBOUND sold everything. Consumer, Finance, and Energy hit hardest.
  • Net flows as a percentage of value traded are clearly “short gamma”, but the net buys this week were of stocks previously a net sell. 

Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK): Tops India Smartphone Market; Samsung Falls to Third

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)‘s smartphone shipments to India surged in Q2 2024, reclaiming the top spot, while Samsung slipped to third.
  • Consumer discretionary sales, including smartphones, were weak during the quarter due to elections, subdued demand, and extreme weather.
  • The upcoming festive season is crucial for sales, with customers anticipating new launches and better bargains. 5G device upgrades continue to drive growth in 2024.

Xiaomi (1810 HK): 2Q24 Shipments – High Growth and High Market Share

By Ming Lu

  • Xiaomi (XM)’s shipments increased by 29% YoY in 2Q24, which is the most rapid growth among the global top five.
  • Xiaomi is the only clear gainer of market share among the global top five.
  • We believe the stock has an upside of 35% and the target price is HK$22.30 for the end of 2024.

China Consumption Weekly (2024 Jul 22): Xiaomi, Guangzhou Automobile, NIO, AAPL, Starbucks

By Ming Lu

  • Xiaomi’s global market increased to 15% in 2Q24 compared with 13% in 2Q23.
  • GAC Aion began to be produced in Thailand to bypass the new tariff barriers from the US and the European Union.
  • Cotti Coffee plans to extend its “RMB9.90” sales to three years.

Pre-IPO Elpiscience Biopharmaceuticals – Will Investors Still Buy in These Stories?

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Elpiscience is incubated by LAV from the very beginning.The Company has strong capital operation capabilities, but the story of “founding team’s decent background + star cornerstone investors” doesn’t work anymore.
  • Elpiscience’s pipelines are still in early stage. However, investors are rational. They will no longer believe in those “good stories”, but focus more on cash flow and drug sales revenue.
  • Elpiscience’s business model has raised concerns about its future product sales scale and profits.The market may not recognize the post-investment valuation of US$599 million if check the valuation of peers.

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