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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief United States: Bitcoin, Schlumberger Ltd, NVIDIA Corp, Halliburton Co, Travelzoo Inc, Ares Commercial Real Estate, Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals , Weatherford International , Smartsheet Inc, Range Resources and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Crisp: We Roll
  • [Earnings Review] Schlumberger Beats Estimates as International Operations Shine
  • Inside NVIDIA’s China Play: Going Beyond U.S. Export Controls To Win Big In China!
  • [Earnings Review] Halliburton Dips as North America Slowdown Hits Q2 Revenue
  • Travelzoo (TZOO) – Monday, Apr 22, 2024
  • Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) – Tuesday, Apr 23, 2024
  • Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals: Expansion of TRiM Platform and Entry into New Therapeutic Areas!
  • Weatherford International: Integration Of Recent Acquisitions Aiding The Top-Line Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Smartsheet Fielding Buyout Interest! What Value Can It Extract From Potential Buyer? – Financial Forecasts
  • Range Resources Corporation: How Are They Responding To Industry Trends With Their Operational Strategy? – Major Drivers


Crypto Crisp: We Roll

By Mads Eberhardt

  • First, the crypto market has seen substantial gains in the past week, particularly Bitcoin, which is now trading at $67,000 for the first time since mid-June, having previously traded as low as $53,500.
  • Please do not make the mistake of thinking that we cannot go higher in the near future.
  • Let us reiterate the bullish outlook we have put forward in what feels like forever.

[Earnings Review] Schlumberger Beats Estimates as International Operations Shine

By Suhas Reddy

  • Schlumberger’s revenue grew 12.9% YoY and beat estimates by 0.7%, while its net profit rose by 7.65% YoY and beat estimates by 2.9%.
  • Revenue from North America grew 3% sequentially but fell 6% YoY due to lower drilling activity in the US.
  • Management expects low single-digit sequential revenue growth in Q3 2024 and free cash flow in H2 2024 to be higher than in H1 2024.

Inside NVIDIA’s China Play: Going Beyond U.S. Export Controls To Win Big In China!

By Baptista Research

  • NVIDIA Corporation, a titan in the semiconductor industry, has been at the forefront of artificial intelligence (AI) innovation, primarily due to its cutting-edge GPUs that power everything from deep learning algorithms to complex simulations.
  • As the company approaches its earnings report, investors are keenly observing the performance of its AI-driven products amidst a backdrop of global market dynamics and regulatory challenges.
  • The company’s recent advancements, such as the “Blackwell” chip series, promise significant improvements in processing speed and efficiency.

[Earnings Review] Halliburton Dips as North America Slowdown Hits Q2 Revenue

By Suhas Reddy

  • Halliburton’s Q2 revenue rises by 0.6% YoY, held back by an 8% YoY decline in revenue from North America. It missed its revenue estimates by 1.9%.
  • Strong performance from the international operations more than offset the slowdown in North America. Revenue from international markets rose 8% YoY.
  • For 2024, Halliburton forecasts a 10% YoY increase in international revenue, while North American revenue is expected to decline by 6-8% YoY.

Travelzoo (TZOO) – Monday, Apr 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Travelzoo (TZOO) is an online club for travel enthusiasts, featuring travel deals from airlines, hotels, cruiselines, vacations, and vouchers for offers from local businesses.

  • TZOO has 223 employees, TZOO boasts 30 million members, 8 million mobile app users and 5 million social media followers, and publishes deals from over 5,000 travel, entertainment and local providers.

  • In 2020, due to the pandemic, which decimated travel generally, TZOO’s revenues declined ~50% and the company lost $1/sh. 

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Ares Commercial Real Estate (ACRE) – Tuesday, Apr 23, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • ACRE is a commercial real estate REIT sponsored by Ares Management Corp, a major investment manager with over $400 billion in assets.
  • ACRE has a $2.2 billion portfolio of 47 loans in various sectors, but has been underperforming compared to competitors in the commercial mortgage REIT space.
  • Despite underperformance, ACRE and Ares Management are actively working to improve the situation and potentially increase returns for investors.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals: Expansion of TRiM Platform and Entry into New Therapeutic Areas!

By Baptista Research

  • Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals delivered a comprehensive update on its operational and financial developments for the fiscal second quarter ended March 31, 2024.
  • A major focus for the company during this period has been its expanding presence in the cardiometabolic space, where substantial investments have been channeled to advance clinical and pre-commercial activities.
  • In these endeavors, significant strides were made with plozasiran and zodasiran, their leading drug candidates designed to tackle diseases associated with lipid disorders.

Weatherford International: Integration Of Recent Acquisitions Aiding The Top-Line Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Weatherford International delivered another strong quarter, driven by significant year-over-year growth in revenue and improved operational efficiencies.
  • The company reported a 15% increase in revenue compared to the same period last year, with the international business showing remarkable strength, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia regions, which grew by 32%.
  • Sequentially, revenue remained flat, which is notable given the typical seasonal decline expected in the first quarter.

Smartsheet Fielding Buyout Interest! What Value Can It Extract From Potential Buyer? – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Smartsheet has recently been in the news for fielding buyout interest.
  • The company reported its First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2025 earnings with positive developments, demonstrating steady improvements.
  • The company showcased an expansion, notably reaching a total of 72 customers with annualized recurring revenue (ARR) over $1 million, marking a 50% increase from the previous year.

Range Resources Corporation: How Are They Responding To Industry Trends With Their Operational Strategy? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Range Resources Corporation showcased a robust set of financial and operational results in the first quarter of 2024, as detailed in the recent update.
  • The company’s strategic initiatives have been closely aligned with industry demands and market conditions, facilitating a balanced approach towards capital allocation, operational efficiency, and shareholder returns.
  • Range Resources reported successful operational outcomes with a focus on driving operational improvements and efficiency across the board.

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Daily Brief India: Garware Technical Fibres, SAI Life Sciences, JSW Steel Ltd, Trent Ltd, Hyundai Motor India , Blackbuck and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • The Beat Ideas: Garware Technical Fibre- A Niche Technical Textile Player
  • Sai Life Sciences Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Vista Land & Lifescapes
  • Narrative and Numbers | Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) | FY24
  • Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Zinka Logistics (Blackbuck) Pre-IPO Tearsheet


The Beat Ideas: Garware Technical Fibre- A Niche Technical Textile Player

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Garware Technical Fibres (GTFL IN) focuses on value-added products and has increased R&D investment significantly, with substantial growth in sports nets and geo-synthetics.
  • The company’s strong export market presence, high-margin profile, and diversification will improve the margins in the future. 
  • With refocus on the domestic market and growing demand for value-added products, Garware Technical Fibres (GTFL IN) is poised for significant growth with capex coming online.

Sai Life Sciences Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Sumeet Singh

  • SAI Life Sciences(SLS) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Kotak, IIFL, Jefferies and MS.
  • SLS is a CRDMO. It provides end-to-end services across the drug discovery, development and manufacturing value chain, for small molecule NCE to global pharmaceutical innovators and biotechnology firms
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, SLS was the fastest-growing Indian CRDMOs among listed Indian peers in terms of revenue CAGR as well as EBITDA CAGR from FY22 to FY24.

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Vista Land & Lifescapes

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Narrative and Numbers | Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) | FY24

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) is a leading retail company in India known for its diverse range of fashion and lifestyle brands like Westside and Zudio. 
  • With its own labels, operating efficiencies, and leverage at work, Trent has been able to expand its margins substantially. 
  • We anticipate the strong operational performance to continue. We believe it will take a couple of years for peers to catch up to Trent’s execution prowess.

Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hyundai Motor (005385 KS) is looking to raise around US$3bn via listing its India unit, Hyundai Motor India. HMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hyundai Motor Group.
  • HMI primarily manufactures and sells four-wheeler passenger vehicles and parts. Currently its vehicle portfolio includes 13 passenger vehicle models across sedans, hatchbacks, SUVs and battery EVs.
  • In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Zinka Logistics (Blackbuck) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Blackbuck (1355652D IN) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis Capital, Morgan Stanley, JM Financial, IIFL Securities.
  • Blackbuck is India’s largest digital platform for truck operators, with 963,345 operators in India transacting on its Blackbuck platform in FY24, comprising 27.52% of India’s truck operators, as per Redseer.
  • Through Blackbuck, its customers digitally manage payments for tolling and fueling, monitor drivers and fleets using telematics, find loads on its marketplace and get access to used vehicle financing. 

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Daily Brief China: Hang Seng Index, China Tower , Anhui Conch Cement, Midea Group Co Ltd A, Prosus NV, TYK Medicines, Anton Oilfield and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • EQD | The HSI Is Ripe For A Rally In August (IF July’s Close Is Negative)
  • FXI Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One More Possible
  • Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight
  • Midea Group (000333 CH): CSRC Approval ✓; IPO Size Will Depend on H-Share Discount
  • Prosus (PRX-NA): Profitable Growth, Elevated Discount
  • Pre-IPO TYK Medicines (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield


EQD | The HSI Is Ripe For A Rally In August (IF July’s Close Is Negative)

By Nico Rosti

  • The Hang Seng Index has been falling in June and July, but our MONTHLY seasonal pattern model indicates the index has a very good chance to close August up.
  • The condition we need, to forecast that August will be closing up, is to have July closing down, i.e. <17718.61.
  • The index is WEEKLY OVERSOLD, so the timing to buy will be critical, because you want to get in early, but not too early (and July must close down).

FXI Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One More Possible

By Brian Freitas


Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight

By Eric Chen

  • We believe Anhui Conch is near the end of a prolonged downturn. Earnings should have bottomed out in 1Q24, with highly visible sequential Q/Q improvements throughout the rest of 2024.
  • The recovery is not demand-driven but cost-led as implementation of new national standards resulting in higher production costs led to industry-wide price-hikes, benefiting Anhui Conch the low-cost producer.
  • We see mild rebound in cement demand in 2025 will pave the way for further price hikes, reinforce the company’s earnings recovery and catalyze valuation expansion.

Midea Group (000333 CH): CSRC Approval ✓; IPO Size Will Depend on H-Share Discount

By Brian Freitas

  • The CSRC has approved Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)‘s application to issue H-shares to be listed on the HKEX (388 HK)
  • Under the approval, Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) can issue up to 650.85m shares. Depending on the H-share discount, that could raise up to HK$43.6bn (US$5.6bn).
  • The IPO is likely to be smaller and will depend on market conditions and the discount demanded on the H-shares. That in turn will determine index inclusion for the H-shares.

Prosus (PRX-NA): Profitable Growth, Elevated Discount

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The removal of their cross-holding structure has had a negligible effect on the respective discounts to NAV for Prosus NV (PRX NA) and Naspers (NPN SJ).
  • We have seen a remarkable turnaround in Prosus’s operating performance during FY2024 and the market will focus on whether the new CEO can achieve his ambitions for “profitable growth”.
  • The open-ended share repurchase program will continue as long as the discount remains “elevated”.

Pre-IPO TYK Medicines (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • TY-9591 has differentiated indication compared with the current listed third-generation EGFR-TKI, but it still depends on the final clinical results, which also bring more uncertainty to the commercialization performance.
  • TYK’s development strategy requires it to invest heavily on head-to-head trials.Due to cash shortage, until TYK successfully addresses survival pressure,we recommend a more cautious assessment of pipeline prospects/future R&D arrangements.
  • TYK is a “mediocre” company. The valuation (RMB3.08 billion) is based on optimistic expectations that core product will be successfully developed, become Me-Better, and commercialized smoothly.We’re, however, conservative about this.

Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Japan: Furukawa Battery, MS&AD Insurance, Sun Corp, Nidec Corp, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Furukawa Battery (6937) – Ugly Process in Virtual Take-Under Take-Private
  • Toyota’s BIG Buyback Via Tender Offer from Banks & Insurers
  • Furukawa Battery (6937 JP): Long-Dated Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY1,400
  • Sun Corporation (6736 JP): The Uphill Struggle for True Wind’s Revised Partial Offer
  • Nidec (6594)| Q1 Beat, but Some One-Offs
  • What Is Needed for More Engagement to Be Effective Is to Reduce Policy Shareholdings


Furukawa Battery (6937) – Ugly Process in Virtual Take-Under Take-Private

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Advantage Partners announced the intention to launch a TOB to take over Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) at ¥1,400 – a 26% premium to last.  
  • This will require substantial time to obtain regulatory and foreign investment clearances so it is anticipated the Tender Offer will be launched at end-March 2025. I expect that is conservative.
  • The price paid to minorities is a premium. But the price paid by the buyer is actually a takeunder. And it gets worse from there. 

Toyota’s BIG Buyback Via Tender Offer from Banks & Insurers

By Travis Lundy

  • With FY23 earnings in May, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced a ¥1trn buyback (410mm shares, 3.04%). Given shares were ¥3,599 the day before, it meant fewer shares or a Tender.
  • Like Honda (who hadn’t bought pre-offering), Toyota hadn’t bought back in the first couple of months. We knew there was bank and insurer overhang. That overhang lasts for years. 
  • Today, Toyota announced an “organised” 410mm share ¥1trln Tender Offer Buyback. Several financial institutions have announced plans to tender. This provides guidance on supply/demand for the rest of the year.

Furukawa Battery (6937 JP): Long-Dated Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY1,400

By Arun George

  • Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from Advantage Partners, Tokyo Century Corp (8439 JP) and Furukawa Electric (5801 JP) consortium at JPY1,400, 22.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The precondition is approval under the competition laws of Japan and Thailand. The offer is long-dated and anticipated to commence in March 2025.
  • While not a knockout bid, the required minority acceptance rate is not onerous. A long-dated offer presents a free option on a bump due to earnings upside or a counteroffer.

Sun Corporation (6736 JP): The Uphill Struggle for True Wind’s Revised Partial Offer

By Arun George

  • True Wind has increased its partial offer for Sun Corp (6736 JP) by 8.0% to JPY4,750 and lowered the minimum number of shares to be purchased from 3.8 to 3.3m.
  • True Wind’s offer has inadvertently spotlighted the valuation disparity vs the Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) stake, resulting in the shares trading through terms.
  • True Wind’s revised offer will struggle to succeed as the 8% price uplift is materially lower than the 19% value increase in the Cellebrite stake (since the offer announcement).

Nidec (6594)| Q1 Beat, but Some One-Offs

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nidec reported Q1 OP of ¥60b, above the consensus of ¥53b. However this also included a gain from the consolidation of Nidec PSA
  • The key earnings driver was small precision motors, which are benefiting from recovery in HDD market and new earnings from cooling systems from AI Servers
  • We revise up our full year forecasts but do not believe the share price will react strongly to the “beat.” Maintain bullish view on valuations

What Is Needed for More Engagement to Be Effective Is to Reduce Policy Shareholdings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Few companies file their annual securities reports prior to AGM, and since they are filed 1-2 days prior to AGM, there’s insufficient time for a thorough review of useful information.
  • Profitable companies that gain the support of overseas investors further increase their return on capital through engagement, and the gap between them and those that don’t will continue to widen.
  • Since reducing policy shareholdings will reduce the percentage of voting rights that unconditionally favor company proposals, engagement will be more effective and speed up the process of management improvement.

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Most Read: L’Occitane, Toyota Motor, Fancl Corp, ASICS Corp, Furukawa Battery, Trent Ltd, MS&AD Insurance, Sun Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Tendering Now Open
  • Japan Cross-Shareholding – Summary Matrix – Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies
  • Fancl (4921 JP): Evaluating the Potential of Kirin (2503 JP) Offer Bump
  • ASICS (7936 JP): The Current Playbook
  • Furukawa Battery (6937) – Ugly Process in Virtual Take-Under Take-Private
  • NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow, Big Impact, Big Positioning
  • True Wind Raises Partial TOB Price for Sun Corp (6736 JP) By 8%. Not Enough.
  • Toyota’s BIG Buyback Via Tender Offer from Banks & Insurers
  • Furukawa Battery (6937 JP): Long-Dated Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY1,400
  • Sun Corporation (6736 JP): The Uphill Struggle for True Wind’s Revised Partial Offer


L’Occitane (973 HK): Tendering Now Open

By David Blennerhassett

  • Exactly two weeks after the scrip alternative was announced, L’Occitane (973 HK)‘s Composite Document has been issued. The Offer is now open for acceptances.
  • The IFA (Somerley) considers terms to be fair & reasonable. A lifetime high coupled with a scrip option – yes, this is fair. 
  • Keep an eye on CCASS moves prior to the first closing date, the 23rd July. I have a call with the FA tomorrow. Hit me up with any questions.

Japan Cross-Shareholding – Summary Matrix – Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

By Sumeet Singh

  • Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.
  • Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. 
  • Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.

Fancl (4921 JP): Evaluating the Potential of Kirin (2503 JP) Offer Bump

By Arun George

  • Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)’s JPY8,620 offer for Fancl Corp (4921 JP) closes on 29 July. The shares have traded above terms for 25 out of the 26 trading days.
  • MY.Alpha Management has amassed 10.3 million shares (8.51% ownership ratio) with several purchases above terms. MY.Alpha could catalyse other shareholders to rally against a light offer. 
  • The emergence of MY.Alpha, the high volume above terms, peers re-rating, the required minority acceptance rate, and an offer unattractive to historical trading ranges increase the probability of a bump. 

ASICS (7936 JP): The Current Playbook

By Arun George

  • Since the US$1.4 billion secondary placement announcement, ASICS Corp (7936 JP)’s shares are up 0.9% from the undisturbed price of JPY2,564 per share (12 July).
  • Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Asics’ shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.
  • The offering will likely be priced on 23 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Furukawa Battery (6937) – Ugly Process in Virtual Take-Under Take-Private

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Advantage Partners announced the intention to launch a TOB to take over Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) at ¥1,400 – a 26% premium to last.  
  • This will require substantial time to obtain regulatory and foreign investment clearances so it is anticipated the Tender Offer will be launched at end-March 2025. I expect that is conservative.
  • The price paid to minorities is a premium. But the price paid by the buyer is actually a takeunder. And it gets worse from there. 

NIFTY50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow, Big Impact, Big Positioning

By Brian Freitas


True Wind Raises Partial TOB Price for Sun Corp (6736 JP) By 8%. Not Enough.

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, the final day of the Tender Offer that True Wind Capital launched on 10 June 2024 to buy 19% of Sun Corp (6736 JP), TWC raised its price to ¥4,750/share./
  • They also lowered their minimum from 3.7934mm shares (17.0%) to 3.3472mm shares (15.0%).
  • As Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) had traded higher, SunCorp had too, and even though shares fell today, they are at ¥4,785/share.

Toyota’s BIG Buyback Via Tender Offer from Banks & Insurers

By Travis Lundy

  • With FY23 earnings in May, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced a ¥1trn buyback (410mm shares, 3.04%). Given shares were ¥3,599 the day before, it meant fewer shares or a Tender.
  • Like Honda (who hadn’t bought pre-offering), Toyota hadn’t bought back in the first couple of months. We knew there was bank and insurer overhang. That overhang lasts for years. 
  • Today, Toyota announced an “organised” 410mm share ¥1trln Tender Offer Buyback. Several financial institutions have announced plans to tender. This provides guidance on supply/demand for the rest of the year.

Furukawa Battery (6937 JP): Long-Dated Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY1,400

By Arun George

  • Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from Advantage Partners, Tokyo Century Corp (8439 JP) and Furukawa Electric (5801 JP) consortium at JPY1,400, 22.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The precondition is approval under the competition laws of Japan and Thailand. The offer is long-dated and anticipated to commence in March 2025.
  • While not a knockout bid, the required minority acceptance rate is not onerous. A long-dated offer presents a free option on a bump due to earnings upside or a counteroffer.

Sun Corporation (6736 JP): The Uphill Struggle for True Wind’s Revised Partial Offer

By Arun George

  • True Wind has increased its partial offer for Sun Corp (6736 JP) by 8.0% to JPY4,750 and lowered the minimum number of shares to be purchased from 3.8 to 3.3m.
  • True Wind’s offer has inadvertently spotlighted the valuation disparity vs the Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) stake, resulting in the shares trading through terms.
  • True Wind’s revised offer will struggle to succeed as the 8% price uplift is materially lower than the 19% value increase in the Cellebrite stake (since the offer announcement).

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Daily Brief Utilities: Constellation Energy , American Electric Power, Cms Energy Corp, Exelon Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Constellation Energy Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Strategic Nuclear Power Generation Expansion As A Critical Growth Catalyst! – Major Drivers
  • American Electric Power Company (AEP): Initiation Of Coverage – Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers
  • CMS Energy Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Enhanced Electric Distribution System Modernization & Major Growth Drivers! – Financial Forecasts
  • Exelon Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Their Core Business Strategy? – Major Drivers


Constellation Energy Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Strategic Nuclear Power Generation Expansion As A Critical Growth Catalyst! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Constellation Energy Corporation recently reported its first quarter financial results, reflecting strong performance both operationally and financially.
  • The leadership, inclusive of President and CEO Joe Dominguez and CFO Dan Eggers, shared updates that highlight robust strategic progress, complex transactions in the pipeline with technology clients, and the continued financial health of the company including a new $1 billion buyback authorization.
  • The results announced include first quarter GAAP earnings of $2.78 per share and adjusted operating earnings of $1.82 per share.

American Electric Power Company (AEP): Initiation Of Coverage – Does It Have A Sustainable Competitive Advantage? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • American Electric Power reported its first quarter earnings for 2024 with a blend of incremental growth and ongoing transformations within its operational and financial frameworks.
  • The report outlines the company’s continuing commitment to increasing its capital spend which has included substantial investments into its transmission systems and resilience enhancements, particularly aimed at accommodating the growing demand from commercial sectors such as data centers.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

CMS Energy Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – Enhanced Electric Distribution System Modernization & Major Growth Drivers! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • CMS Energy has reported its Q1 2024 results, showcasing a balanced performance driven by strategic investments, operational efficiencies, and a clear focus on growth.
  • The company continues to leverage its CE Way lean operating system, which has been instrumental in enhancing performance, increasing productivity, and managing costs effectively.
  • This, coupled with efforts to grow Michigan through economic development, positions CMS Energy as a forward-thinking utility company committed to both customer affordability and long-term sustainability.

Exelon Corporation: Initiation Of Coverage – What Is Their Core Business Strategy? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Exelon has demonstrated significant progress on the regulatory front, particularly with the expedited approval of ComEd’s revised revenue requirement by Illinois regulators.
  • The company effectively addressed regulatory feedback by filing an updated grid plan, underscoring its proactive engagement with stakeholders to foster compliance and promote grid modernization.
  • Such developments are poised to enhance long-term value creation through improved utility infrastructure and adherence to clean-energy mandates.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Nidec Corp, Blackbuck, Sai Gon Cargo Service , Azul SA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Nidec (6594)| Q1 Beat, but Some One-Offs
  • Zinka Logistics (Blackbuck) Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN): Strong Q2 2024, 8% Dividend Yield, >40% ROEs, Net Cash
  • Azul – Cash Flow Overhang Requires Structural Solution


Nidec (6594)| Q1 Beat, but Some One-Offs

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nidec reported Q1 OP of ¥60b, above the consensus of ¥53b. However this also included a gain from the consolidation of Nidec PSA
  • The key earnings driver was small precision motors, which are benefiting from recovery in HDD market and new earnings from cooling systems from AI Servers
  • We revise up our full year forecasts but do not believe the share price will react strongly to the “beat.” Maintain bullish view on valuations

Zinka Logistics (Blackbuck) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Blackbuck (1355652D IN) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis Capital, Morgan Stanley, JM Financial, IIFL Securities.
  • Blackbuck is India’s largest digital platform for truck operators, with 963,345 operators in India transacting on its Blackbuck platform in FY24, comprising 27.52% of India’s truck operators, as per Redseer.
  • Through Blackbuck, its customers digitally manage payments for tolling and fueling, monitor drivers and fleets using telematics, find loads on its marketplace and get access to used vehicle financing. 

Sai Gon Cargo Service (SCS VN): Strong Q2 2024, 8% Dividend Yield, >40% ROEs, Net Cash

By Sameer Taneja


Azul – Cash Flow Overhang Requires Structural Solution

By Neil Glynn

  • Azul’s valuation looks optically below, but we publish a deep dive illustrating that cash outflow concerns are the key driver.
  • Heavy levels of payment arrears built up through COVID are likely to take time to wash through the cash flow statement, which should be a watch point for Abra discussions
  • Given Azul’s margins are top tier by global standards, and Abra airlines Avianca and GOL have moderate leverage, we struggle to see major synergies that would change Azul’s situation.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Anhui Conch Cement, JSW Steel Ltd, Schlumberger Ltd, Halliburton Co, Weatherford International , Range Resources, Antero Resources, Geopark Ltd, Transocean Ltd, Anton Oilfield and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight
  • Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Vista Land & Lifescapes
  • [Earnings Review] Schlumberger Beats Estimates as International Operations Shine
  • [Earnings Review] Halliburton Dips as North America Slowdown Hits Q2 Revenue
  • Weatherford International: Integration Of Recent Acquisitions Aiding The Top-Line Growth? – Major Drivers
  • Range Resources Corporation: How Are They Responding To Industry Trends With Their Operational Strategy? – Major Drivers
  • Antero Resources Corporation
  • GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): Strong Performance in Argentina
  • Transocean Ltd.: Demand for High-Specification Ultra-Deepwater Drillships & 3 Critical Factors Impacting Its Performance! – Financial Forecasts
  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield


Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight

By Eric Chen

  • We believe Anhui Conch is near the end of a prolonged downturn. Earnings should have bottomed out in 1Q24, with highly visible sequential Q/Q improvements throughout the rest of 2024.
  • The recovery is not demand-driven but cost-led as implementation of new national standards resulting in higher production costs led to industry-wide price-hikes, benefiting Anhui Conch the low-cost producer.
  • We see mild rebound in cement demand in 2025 will pave the way for further price hikes, reinforce the company’s earnings recovery and catalyze valuation expansion.

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Vista Land & Lifescapes

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


[Earnings Review] Schlumberger Beats Estimates as International Operations Shine

By Suhas Reddy

  • Schlumberger’s revenue grew 12.9% YoY and beat estimates by 0.7%, while its net profit rose by 7.65% YoY and beat estimates by 2.9%.
  • Revenue from North America grew 3% sequentially but fell 6% YoY due to lower drilling activity in the US.
  • Management expects low single-digit sequential revenue growth in Q3 2024 and free cash flow in H2 2024 to be higher than in H1 2024.

[Earnings Review] Halliburton Dips as North America Slowdown Hits Q2 Revenue

By Suhas Reddy

  • Halliburton’s Q2 revenue rises by 0.6% YoY, held back by an 8% YoY decline in revenue from North America. It missed its revenue estimates by 1.9%.
  • Strong performance from the international operations more than offset the slowdown in North America. Revenue from international markets rose 8% YoY.
  • For 2024, Halliburton forecasts a 10% YoY increase in international revenue, while North American revenue is expected to decline by 6-8% YoY.

Weatherford International: Integration Of Recent Acquisitions Aiding The Top-Line Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Weatherford International delivered another strong quarter, driven by significant year-over-year growth in revenue and improved operational efficiencies.
  • The company reported a 15% increase in revenue compared to the same period last year, with the international business showing remarkable strength, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia regions, which grew by 32%.
  • Sequentially, revenue remained flat, which is notable given the typical seasonal decline expected in the first quarter.

Range Resources Corporation: How Are They Responding To Industry Trends With Their Operational Strategy? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Range Resources Corporation showcased a robust set of financial and operational results in the first quarter of 2024, as detailed in the recent update.
  • The company’s strategic initiatives have been closely aligned with industry demands and market conditions, facilitating a balanced approach towards capital allocation, operational efficiency, and shareholder returns.
  • Range Resources reported successful operational outcomes with a focus on driving operational improvements and efficiency across the board.

Antero Resources Corporation

By Baptista Research

  • Antero Resources continues to exhibit operational efficiency and capital discipline, as evidenced by their recent performance and strategic initiatives.
  • In the first quarter of 2024, Antero Resources delivered significant improvements in drilling and completion efficiencies.
  • The company averaged 5.4 days per 10,000 lateral feet drilled, a slight improvement from 5.5 days in 2023, and achieved a quarterly record of 11.3 completion stages per day.

GeoPark Limited (NYSE: GPRK): Strong Performance in Argentina

By Auctus Advisors

  • 2Q24 production was 35,608 boe/d, which is in line with 2Q24 but below April production of ~37.5 mboe/d, as the company has experienced sporadic blockades and weather-associated flooding at Llanos 34.
  • As a result production in Colombia was only 33,956 boe/d (we forecasted 35.5 mboe/d).
  • The waterflood programme now generates 3.7 mbbl/d.

Transocean Ltd.: Demand for High-Specification Ultra-Deepwater Drillships & 3 Critical Factors Impacting Its Performance! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Transocean reported adjusted EBITDA of $199 million on $767 million of adjusted contract drilling revenues for the first quarter, achieving an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 26%.
  • Despite a slowdown in contract awards compared to last year, demand for high-specification ultra-deepwater drillships and harsh environment semisubmersibles remains robust, with improving day rates and longer contract terms.
  • The company announced a 365-day contract extension for the Deepwater Asgard in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, valued at approximately $195 million, and a contract for additional wells on the Deepwater Atlas at a day rate of $505,000.

Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Consumer: Furukawa Battery, Sun Corp, Garware Technical Fibres, Midea Group Co Ltd A, Trent Ltd, Prosus NV, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Hyundai Motor India , Leon’S Furniture and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Furukawa Battery (6937) – Ugly Process in Virtual Take-Under Take-Private
  • Furukawa Battery (6937 JP): Long-Dated Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY1,400
  • Sun Corporation (6736 JP): The Uphill Struggle for True Wind’s Revised Partial Offer
  • The Beat Ideas: Garware Technical Fibre- A Niche Technical Textile Player
  • Midea Group (000333 CH): CSRC Approval ✓; IPO Size Will Depend on H-Share Discount
  • Narrative and Numbers | Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) | FY24
  • Prosus (PRX-NA): Profitable Growth, Elevated Discount
  • What Is Needed for More Engagement to Be Effective Is to Reduce Policy Shareholdings
  • Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Leon’S Furniture Ltd (LNF.) – Tuesday, Apr 23, 2024


Furukawa Battery (6937) – Ugly Process in Virtual Take-Under Take-Private

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Advantage Partners announced the intention to launch a TOB to take over Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) at ¥1,400 – a 26% premium to last.  
  • This will require substantial time to obtain regulatory and foreign investment clearances so it is anticipated the Tender Offer will be launched at end-March 2025. I expect that is conservative.
  • The price paid to minorities is a premium. But the price paid by the buyer is actually a takeunder. And it gets worse from there. 

Furukawa Battery (6937 JP): Long-Dated Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY1,400

By Arun George

  • Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from Advantage Partners, Tokyo Century Corp (8439 JP) and Furukawa Electric (5801 JP) consortium at JPY1,400, 22.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The precondition is approval under the competition laws of Japan and Thailand. The offer is long-dated and anticipated to commence in March 2025.
  • While not a knockout bid, the required minority acceptance rate is not onerous. A long-dated offer presents a free option on a bump due to earnings upside or a counteroffer.

Sun Corporation (6736 JP): The Uphill Struggle for True Wind’s Revised Partial Offer

By Arun George

  • True Wind has increased its partial offer for Sun Corp (6736 JP) by 8.0% to JPY4,750 and lowered the minimum number of shares to be purchased from 3.8 to 3.3m.
  • True Wind’s offer has inadvertently spotlighted the valuation disparity vs the Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) stake, resulting in the shares trading through terms.
  • True Wind’s revised offer will struggle to succeed as the 8% price uplift is materially lower than the 19% value increase in the Cellebrite stake (since the offer announcement).

The Beat Ideas: Garware Technical Fibre- A Niche Technical Textile Player

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Garware Technical Fibres (GTFL IN) focuses on value-added products and has increased R&D investment significantly, with substantial growth in sports nets and geo-synthetics.
  • The company’s strong export market presence, high-margin profile, and diversification will improve the margins in the future. 
  • With refocus on the domestic market and growing demand for value-added products, Garware Technical Fibres (GTFL IN) is poised for significant growth with capex coming online.

Midea Group (000333 CH): CSRC Approval ✓; IPO Size Will Depend on H-Share Discount

By Brian Freitas

  • The CSRC has approved Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)‘s application to issue H-shares to be listed on the HKEX (388 HK)
  • Under the approval, Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) can issue up to 650.85m shares. Depending on the H-share discount, that could raise up to HK$43.6bn (US$5.6bn).
  • The IPO is likely to be smaller and will depend on market conditions and the discount demanded on the H-shares. That in turn will determine index inclusion for the H-shares.

Narrative and Numbers | Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) | FY24

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) is a leading retail company in India known for its diverse range of fashion and lifestyle brands like Westside and Zudio. 
  • With its own labels, operating efficiencies, and leverage at work, Trent has been able to expand its margins substantially. 
  • We anticipate the strong operational performance to continue. We believe it will take a couple of years for peers to catch up to Trent’s execution prowess.

Prosus (PRX-NA): Profitable Growth, Elevated Discount

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The removal of their cross-holding structure has had a negligible effect on the respective discounts to NAV for Prosus NV (PRX NA) and Naspers (NPN SJ).
  • We have seen a remarkable turnaround in Prosus’s operating performance during FY2024 and the market will focus on whether the new CEO can achieve his ambitions for “profitable growth”.
  • The open-ended share repurchase program will continue as long as the discount remains “elevated”.

What Is Needed for More Engagement to Be Effective Is to Reduce Policy Shareholdings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Few companies file their annual securities reports prior to AGM, and since they are filed 1-2 days prior to AGM, there’s insufficient time for a thorough review of useful information.
  • Profitable companies that gain the support of overseas investors further increase their return on capital through engagement, and the gap between them and those that don’t will continue to widen.
  • Since reducing policy shareholdings will reduce the percentage of voting rights that unconditionally favor company proposals, engagement will be more effective and speed up the process of management improvement.

Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hyundai Motor (005385 KS) is looking to raise around US$3bn via listing its India unit, Hyundai Motor India. HMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hyundai Motor Group.
  • HMI primarily manufactures and sells four-wheeler passenger vehicles and parts. Currently its vehicle portfolio includes 13 passenger vehicle models across sedans, hatchbacks, SUVs and battery EVs.
  • In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Leon’S Furniture Ltd (LNF.) – Tuesday, Apr 23, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Leon’s is a Canadian retailer of furniture and appliances that is majority-owned by the Leon’s family.
  • The company has a history of delivering high returns on net tangible capital and compounding earnings per share at a steady rate.
  • Leon’s holds a significant amount of undervalued real estate assets on their books, and has expressed intentions to monetize these assets through sale or development to potentially create value for the company.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Kakao Corp, China Tower , NVIDIA Corp, Acer Inc, Travelzoo Inc, Smartsheet Inc, Solera Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Kakao Group Founder Kim Beom-Su Gets Arrested – What’s Next?
  • FXI Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One More Possible
  • Inside NVIDIA’s China Play: Going Beyond U.S. Export Controls To Win Big In China!
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Jul-2024): Biden out, Harris leads amid AI, semiconductor debates.
  • Travelzoo (TZOO) – Monday, Apr 22, 2024
  • Smartsheet Fielding Buyout Interest! What Value Can It Extract From Potential Buyer? – Financial Forecasts
  • Solera IPO Preview: Low Single-Digit Growth and $8B+ of Variable Rate Indebtedness


Kakao Group Founder Kim Beom-Su Gets Arrested – What’s Next?

By Douglas Kim

  • As a result of the arrest of Kim Beom-Su, the near term impact on the Kakao companies (including Kakao Corp, Kakao Bank, Kakao Pay, and Kakao Games) is clearly negative.
  • Given that this is a highly publicized event, it is likely that this legal case will be PROLONGED and finally decided by the Supreme Court which could take several years.
  • Some of the scenarios include Kakao Group selling partial stakes in Kakao Bank and SM Entertainment but this is likely to get dragged on, resulting in further uncertainty.

FXI Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One More Possible

By Brian Freitas


Inside NVIDIA’s China Play: Going Beyond U.S. Export Controls To Win Big In China!

By Baptista Research

  • NVIDIA Corporation, a titan in the semiconductor industry, has been at the forefront of artificial intelligence (AI) innovation, primarily due to its cutting-edge GPUs that power everything from deep learning algorithms to complex simulations.
  • As the company approaches its earnings report, investors are keenly observing the performance of its AI-driven products amidst a backdrop of global market dynamics and regulatory challenges.
  • The company’s recent advancements, such as the “Blackwell” chip series, promise significant improvements in processing speed and efficiency.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Jul-2024): Biden out, Harris leads amid AI, semiconductor debates.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Kamala Harris assumes presidency after Joe Biden steps down amidst discussions on AI regulations and semiconductor debates.
  • India’s iVP Semi focuses on domestic market with locally developed strategy, aiming to penetrate the fabless startup industry.
  • Composite materials boast superior performance but come with higher costs due to advanced properties and manufacturing processes; South Korean experts urge government to protect OLED panel market against Chinese competition.

Travelzoo (TZOO) – Monday, Apr 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Travelzoo (TZOO) is an online club for travel enthusiasts, featuring travel deals from airlines, hotels, cruiselines, vacations, and vouchers for offers from local businesses.

  • TZOO has 223 employees, TZOO boasts 30 million members, 8 million mobile app users and 5 million social media followers, and publishes deals from over 5,000 travel, entertainment and local providers.

  • In 2020, due to the pandemic, which decimated travel generally, TZOO’s revenues declined ~50% and the company lost $1/sh. 

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Smartsheet Fielding Buyout Interest! What Value Can It Extract From Potential Buyer? – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Smartsheet has recently been in the news for fielding buyout interest.
  • The company reported its First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2025 earnings with positive developments, demonstrating steady improvements.
  • The company showcased an expansion, notably reaching a total of 72 customers with annualized recurring revenue (ARR) over $1 million, marking a 50% increase from the previous year.

Solera IPO Preview: Low Single-Digit Growth and $8B+ of Variable Rate Indebtedness

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Solera Corp, the global leader in vehicle lifecycle management and automotive software solution provider, filed to list IPO on New York Stock Exchange.  
  • The software company plans to raise capital and repay a portion of massive debt obligations, which exceeded $8B as of Jun-24. Goldman Sachs is leading the offering.  
  • With $8B+ of variable rate indebtedness and low single-digit growth, the risk-reward profile of Solera IPO looks increasingly skewed to the downside.

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