Category

Daily Briefs

Jul 24
0

Daily Brief ESG: What Is Needed for More Engagement to Be Effective Is to Reduce Policy Shareholdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • What Is Needed for More Engagement to Be Effective Is to Reduce Policy Shareholdings

What Is Needed for More Engagement to Be Effective Is to Reduce Policy Shareholdings

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Few companies file their annual securities reports prior to AGM, and since they are filed 1-2 days prior to AGM, there’s insufficient time for a thorough review of useful information.
  • Profitable companies that gain the support of overseas investors further increase their return on capital through engagement, and the gap between them and those that don’t will continue to widen.
  • Since reducing policy shareholdings will reduce the percentage of voting rights that unconditionally favor company proposals, engagement will be more effective and speed up the process of management improvement.

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Jul 24
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Morning Connection – 23 July 2024 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Morning Connection – 23 July 2024
  • Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Slip
  • Is the AI Boom Over?
  • Union Budget 2024: Key Announcements for Different Industries
  • All You Need to Know: Economic Survey 2023-24
  • # 32 India Insight: Reliance Disney Merger, Eureka Forbes Distribution Plans, Suzlon Profits Surges
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/1024 HK/BIDU US/PDD US/AMZN US/NTES US/700 HK/BABA US
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:1519 HK/ZTO US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/LI US/NIO US/QCOM US/TSMC US
  • 2nd Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Westwater Resources, Inc. (WWR)

Japan Morning Connection – 23 July 2024

By Andrew Jackson

  • Major indices surged, led by Rambus +9.14% signaling strong tech sector momentum.  However there is continued weakness for auto related chips and a lower cyclical demand in industrial IC’s.
  • CrowStrike continued it’s significant drop, with CEO to testify on outage; increased interest in rivals like Trend Micro suggests potential market share shifts in security software. 
  • Kyushu Rail announced a 15% rail fare hike effective April 2025, leading to a +6.78% surge; tech industry growth in Kyushu will impact infrastructure-related firms positively.

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Slip

By Mark Chadwick

  • US Stocks were flat ahead of key tech earnings. Both Alphabet and Tesla posted mixed results, with share prices falling after-hours
  • Nidec revised its FY2025 forecast, expecting a 48% year-on-year increase in net profit to 185 billion yen
  • Hitachi will sell its 40% stake in its air-conditioning joint venture with Johnson Controls International to Bosch

Is the AI Boom Over?

By Jim Handy

  • Nvidia gave guidance for significantly slower Q/Q growth in Q2
  • Nvidia and its HBM suppliers have told of shortages, driving hyperscale datacenters to build excess inventory
  • At the first sign of softness, Nvidia’s customers are likely to enter a digestion phase, drastically reducing orders

Union Budget 2024: Key Announcements for Different Industries

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • 9 Key Sectors for generating opportunities for India in Budget: Agri, Employment, Inclusive development, Manufacturing and Services, Urban Development, Energy, Infra, Innovation & R&D, NexGen reforms. 
  • The overall tone of the Union Budget 2024 emphasizes support for MSMEs, Infrastructure, defence, and youth development.
  • The budget’s focus on diverse sectors and inclusive development strengthens confidence in India’s long-term economic resilience and growth trajectory.

All You Need to Know: Economic Survey 2023-24

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • The Economic Survey 2024 emphasizes long-term strategies for India’s “Amrit Kaal” goals, highlighting sustained economic growth, climate action, and sectoral advancements.
  • India’s GDP grew by 8.2% in FY24, with key sectors like agriculture, manufacturing, and electronics showing strong performance. The government focuses on bottom-up reforms for sustained growth.
  • The survey’s emphasis on strategic, long-term growth and resilience reinforces confidence in India’s economic future, aligning with the vision for a “Viksit Bharat” by 2047.

# 32 India Insight: Reliance Disney Merger, Eureka Forbes Distribution Plans, Suzlon Profits Surges

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • India’s CCI intensively scrutinizes Reliance-Disney $8.5 billion merger amid major antitrust concerns.
  • Eureka Forbes, under new leadership, plans extensive distribution network growth and product launches.
  • Suzlon’s Q1 consolidated net profit soars 200% YoY, reaching ₹302 crore with a 50% revenue increase.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:3690 HK/TCOM US/1024 HK/BIDU US/PDD US/AMZN US/NTES US/700 HK/BABA US

By Ying Pan

  • 3690 HK/TCOM US: Online catering is robust in 2Q24, while online tourism diminishing quickly（+/-）
  • 1024 HK: Source said Kuaishou’s video generation LLM, Kling AI, has surpassed one million total application users.（+）
  • 3690 HK:Meituan may launch food delivery service in Riyadh in September or October this year (+)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1519 HK/ZTO US/1810 HK/981 HK/XPEV US/LI US/NIO US/QCOM US/TSMC US

By Eric Wen

  • Macro News Update: Our take from the decision draft of the CCP 3rd Plenary Session
  • 1519 HK/ZTO US: Weekly parcel volume shows 31% y-o-y growth (+)
  • 1810 HK/981 HK: Huawei’s mid-premium Nova 13 smartphone to be delayed (+//)

2nd Quarter 2024 Letter to Investors

By Massif Capital Research

  • Inflation and Market Dynamics: In this letter, we discuss persistent inflationary pressures and potential misallocation of capital in financial markets that could lead to future economic instability.
  • Of specific concern is persistent under-investment in the Real Asset Ecosystem, which includes commodity producers and industries with significant vertical linkages to commodities, an ecosystem of businesses that ensure sustainable economic growth and stability.

  • We review our Enviox and Siemens Energy investment thesis and explain continued confidence in our lithium investments despite widespread negative EV sentiment.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor – Focus on Westwater Resources, Inc. (WWR)

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was down 3.6% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (down 2.0%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.7%) and the Nasdaq Index (down 4.0%).
  • Energy Technology (14.4% of the index) was down 8.1%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (59.6% of the index) was down 1.7%, ClimateTech Mining was down 7.0%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.7% of index) was down 6.0%.

  • Top 10 Performers: ARVL, ZAPP, NAAS, VMC, PEGY, QS, LCID, OUST, EVGO, COMM

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Jul 24
0

Daily Brief ECM: Sai Life Sciences Pre-IPO Tearsheet and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Sai Life Sciences Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation
  • Zinka Logistics (Blackbuck) Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Pre-IPO TYK Medicines (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Solera IPO Preview: Low Single-Digit Growth and $8B+ of Variable Rate Indebtedness

Sai Life Sciences Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Sumeet Singh

  • SAI Life Sciences(SLS) is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Kotak, IIFL, Jefferies and MS.
  • SLS is a CRDMO. It provides end-to-end services across the drug discovery, development and manufacturing value chain, for small molecule NCE to global pharmaceutical innovators and biotechnology firms
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, SLS was the fastest-growing Indian CRDMOs among listed Indian peers in terms of revenue CAGR as well as EBITDA CAGR from FY22 to FY24.

Hyundai Motor India Pre-IPO – Thoughts on Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hyundai Motor (005385 KS) is looking to raise around US$3bn via listing its India unit, Hyundai Motor India. HMI is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Hyundai Motor Group.
  • HMI primarily manufactures and sells four-wheeler passenger vehicles and parts. Currently its vehicle portfolio includes 13 passenger vehicle models across sedans, hatchbacks, SUVs and battery EVs.
  • In our previous notes, we have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison. In this note, we talk about valuations.

Zinka Logistics (Blackbuck) Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Blackbuck (1355652D IN) is looking to raise up to US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by Axis Capital, Morgan Stanley, JM Financial, IIFL Securities.
  • Blackbuck is India’s largest digital platform for truck operators, with 963,345 operators in India transacting on its Blackbuck platform in FY24, comprising 27.52% of India’s truck operators, as per Redseer.
  • Through Blackbuck, its customers digitally manage payments for tolling and fueling, monitor drivers and fleets using telematics, find loads on its marketplace and get access to used vehicle financing. 

Pre-IPO TYK Medicines (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • TY-9591 has differentiated indication compared with the current listed third-generation EGFR-TKI, but it still depends on the final clinical results, which also bring more uncertainty to the commercialization performance.
  • TYK’s development strategy requires it to invest heavily on head-to-head trials.Due to cash shortage, until TYK successfully addresses survival pressure,we recommend a more cautious assessment of pipeline prospects/future R&D arrangements.
  • TYK is a “mediocre” company. The valuation (RMB3.08 billion) is based on optimistic expectations that core product will be successfully developed, become Me-Better, and commercialized smoothly.We’re, however, conservative about this.

Solera IPO Preview: Low Single-Digit Growth and $8B+ of Variable Rate Indebtedness

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Solera Corp, the global leader in vehicle lifecycle management and automotive software solution provider, filed to list IPO on New York Stock Exchange.  
  • The software company plans to raise capital and repay a portion of massive debt obligations, which exceeded $8B as of Jun-24. Goldman Sachs is leading the offering.  
  • With $8B+ of variable rate indebtedness and low single-digit growth, the risk-reward profile of Solera IPO looks increasingly skewed to the downside.

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Jul 24
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Vista Land & Lifescapes
  • Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield

Morning Views Asia: JSW Steel Ltd, Vista Land & Lifescapes

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

Morning Views Asia: Anton Oilfield

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Jul 24
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Toyota’s BIG Buyback Via Tender Offer from Banks & Insurers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Toyota’s BIG Buyback Via Tender Offer from Banks & Insurers
  • The Beat Ideas: Garware Technical Fibre- A Niche Technical Textile Player
  • Kakao Group Founder Kim Beom-Su Gets Arrested – What’s Next?
  • Nidec (6594)| Q1 Beat, but Some One-Offs
  • Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight
  • Prosus (PRX-NA): Profitable Growth, Elevated Discount
  • [Earnings Review] Schlumberger Beats Estimates as International Operations Shine
  • Inside NVIDIA’s China Play: Going Beyond U.S. Export Controls To Win Big In China!
  • Narrative and Numbers | Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) | FY24
  • [Earnings Review] Halliburton Dips as North America Slowdown Hits Q2 Revenue

Toyota’s BIG Buyback Via Tender Offer from Banks & Insurers

By Travis Lundy

  • With FY23 earnings in May, Toyota Motor (7203 JP) announced a ¥1trn buyback (410mm shares, 3.04%). Given shares were ¥3,599 the day before, it meant fewer shares or a Tender.
  • Like Honda (who hadn’t bought pre-offering), Toyota hadn’t bought back in the first couple of months. We knew there was bank and insurer overhang. That overhang lasts for years. 
  • Today, Toyota announced an “organised” 410mm share ¥1trln Tender Offer Buyback. Several financial institutions have announced plans to tender. This provides guidance on supply/demand for the rest of the year.

The Beat Ideas: Garware Technical Fibre- A Niche Technical Textile Player

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Garware Technical Fibres (GTFL IN) focuses on value-added products and has increased R&D investment significantly, with substantial growth in sports nets and geo-synthetics.
  • The company’s strong export market presence, high-margin profile, and diversification will improve the margins in the future. 
  • With refocus on the domestic market and growing demand for value-added products, Garware Technical Fibres (GTFL IN) is poised for significant growth with capex coming online.

Kakao Group Founder Kim Beom-Su Gets Arrested – What’s Next?

By Douglas Kim

  • As a result of the arrest of Kim Beom-Su, the near term impact on the Kakao companies (including Kakao Corp, Kakao Bank, Kakao Pay, and Kakao Games) is clearly negative.
  • Given that this is a highly publicized event, it is likely that this legal case will be PROLONGED and finally decided by the Supreme Court which could take several years.
  • Some of the scenarios include Kakao Group selling partial stakes in Kakao Bank and SM Entertainment but this is likely to get dragged on, resulting in further uncertainty.

Nidec (6594)| Q1 Beat, but Some One-Offs

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nidec reported Q1 OP of ¥60b, above the consensus of ¥53b. However this also included a gain from the consolidation of Nidec PSA
  • The key earnings driver was small precision motors, which are benefiting from recovery in HDD market and new earnings from cooling systems from AI Servers
  • We revise up our full year forecasts but do not believe the share price will react strongly to the “beat.” Maintain bullish view on valuations

Anhui Conch (914 HK): Turnaround in Sight

By Eric Chen

  • We believe Anhui Conch is near the end of a prolonged downturn. Earnings should have bottomed out in 1Q24, with highly visible sequential Q/Q improvements throughout the rest of 2024.
  • The recovery is not demand-driven but cost-led as implementation of new national standards resulting in higher production costs led to industry-wide price-hikes, benefiting Anhui Conch the low-cost producer.
  • We see mild rebound in cement demand in 2025 will pave the way for further price hikes, reinforce the company’s earnings recovery and catalyze valuation expansion.

Prosus (PRX-NA): Profitable Growth, Elevated Discount

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The removal of their cross-holding structure has had a negligible effect on the respective discounts to NAV for Prosus NV (PRX NA) and Naspers (NPN SJ).
  • We have seen a remarkable turnaround in Prosus’s operating performance during FY2024 and the market will focus on whether the new CEO can achieve his ambitions for “profitable growth”.
  • The open-ended share repurchase program will continue as long as the discount remains “elevated”.

[Earnings Review] Schlumberger Beats Estimates as International Operations Shine

By Suhas Reddy

  • Schlumberger’s revenue grew 12.9% YoY and beat estimates by 0.7%, while its net profit rose by 7.65% YoY and beat estimates by 2.9%.
  • Revenue from North America grew 3% sequentially but fell 6% YoY due to lower drilling activity in the US.
  • Management expects low single-digit sequential revenue growth in Q3 2024 and free cash flow in H2 2024 to be higher than in H1 2024.

Inside NVIDIA’s China Play: Going Beyond U.S. Export Controls To Win Big In China!

By Baptista Research

  • NVIDIA Corporation, a titan in the semiconductor industry, has been at the forefront of artificial intelligence (AI) innovation, primarily due to its cutting-edge GPUs that power everything from deep learning algorithms to complex simulations.
  • As the company approaches its earnings report, investors are keenly observing the performance of its AI-driven products amidst a backdrop of global market dynamics and regulatory challenges.
  • The company’s recent advancements, such as the “Blackwell” chip series, promise significant improvements in processing speed and efficiency.

Narrative and Numbers | Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) | FY24

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) is a leading retail company in India known for its diverse range of fashion and lifestyle brands like Westside and Zudio. 
  • With its own labels, operating efficiencies, and leverage at work, Trent has been able to expand its margins substantially. 
  • We anticipate the strong operational performance to continue. We believe it will take a couple of years for peers to catch up to Trent’s execution prowess.

[Earnings Review] Halliburton Dips as North America Slowdown Hits Q2 Revenue

By Suhas Reddy

  • Halliburton’s Q2 revenue rises by 0.6% YoY, held back by an 8% YoY decline in revenue from North America. It missed its revenue estimates by 1.9%.
  • Strong performance from the international operations more than offset the slowdown in North America. Revenue from international markets rose 8% YoY.
  • For 2024, Halliburton forecasts a 10% YoY increase in international revenue, while North American revenue is expected to decline by 6-8% YoY.

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Jul 24
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Furukawa Battery (6937) – Ugly Process in Virtual Take-Under Take-Private and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Furukawa Battery (6937) – Ugly Process in Virtual Take-Under Take-Private
  • Furukawa Battery (6937 JP): Long-Dated Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY1,400
  • Sun Corporation (6736 JP): The Uphill Struggle for True Wind’s Revised Partial Offer
  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue
  • EQD | The HSI Is Ripe For A Rally In August (IF July’s Close Is Negative)
  • FXI Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One More Possible
  • Midea Group (000333 CH): CSRC Approval ✓; IPO Size Will Depend on H-Share Discount

Furukawa Battery (6937) – Ugly Process in Virtual Take-Under Take-Private

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, Advantage Partners announced the intention to launch a TOB to take over Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) at ¥1,400 – a 26% premium to last.  
  • This will require substantial time to obtain regulatory and foreign investment clearances so it is anticipated the Tender Offer will be launched at end-March 2025. I expect that is conservative.
  • The price paid to minorities is a premium. But the price paid by the buyer is actually a takeunder. And it gets worse from there. 

Furukawa Battery (6937 JP): Long-Dated Pre-Conditional Offer at JPY1,400

By Arun George

  • Furukawa Battery (6937 JP) recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from Advantage Partners, Tokyo Century Corp (8439 JP) and Furukawa Electric (5801 JP) consortium at JPY1,400, 22.6% premium to the undisturbed price.
  • The precondition is approval under the competition laws of Japan and Thailand. The offer is long-dated and anticipated to commence in March 2025.
  • While not a knockout bid, the required minority acceptance rate is not onerous. A long-dated offer presents a free option on a bump due to earnings upside or a counteroffer.

Sun Corporation (6736 JP): The Uphill Struggle for True Wind’s Revised Partial Offer

By Arun George

  • True Wind has increased its partial offer for Sun Corp (6736 JP) by 8.0% to JPY4,750 and lowered the minimum number of shares to be purchased from 3.8 to 3.3m.
  • True Wind’s offer has inadvertently spotlighted the valuation disparity vs the Cellebrite DI (CLBT US) stake, resulting in the shares trading through terms.
  • True Wind’s revised offer will struggle to succeed as the 8% price uplift is materially lower than the 19% value increase in the Cellebrite stake (since the offer announcement).

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
  • We see one ASX 100 change and two ASX 200 changes but there are a couple of names lurking just outside the border which have to be monitored carefully.
  • For ASX 300, we see 13 ADDs and 6 DELs. Many of these expected ADDs and DELs could have more than 10 days of volume to trade.

EQD | The HSI Is Ripe For A Rally In August (IF July’s Close Is Negative)

By Nico Rosti

  • The Hang Seng Index has been falling in June and July, but our MONTHLY seasonal pattern model indicates the index has a very good chance to close August up.
  • The condition we need, to forecast that August will be closing up, is to have July closing down, i.e. <17718.61.
  • The index is WEEKLY OVERSOLD, so the timing to buy will be critical, because you want to get in early, but not too early (and July must close down).

FXI Rebalance Preview: One High Probability Change; One More Possible

By Brian Freitas

Midea Group (000333 CH): CSRC Approval ✓; IPO Size Will Depend on H-Share Discount

By Brian Freitas

  • The CSRC has approved Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH)‘s application to issue H-shares to be listed on the HKEX (388 HK). 
  • Under the approval, Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) can issue up to 650.85m shares. Depending on the H-share discount, that could raise up to HK$43.6bn (US$5.6bn).
  • The IPO is likely to be smaller and will depend on market conditions and the discount demanded on the H-shares. That in turn will determine index inclusion for the H-shares.

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Jul 24
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Crisp: We Roll and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Crisp: We Roll

Crypto Crisp: We Roll

By Mads Eberhardt

  • First, the crypto market has seen substantial gains in the past week, particularly Bitcoin, which is now trading at $67,000 for the first time since mid-June, having previously traded as low as $53,500.
  • Please do not make the mistake of thinking that we cannot go higher in the near future.
  • Let us reiterate the bullish outlook we have put forward in what feels like forever.

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Jul 24
0

Daily Brief Macro: India: Mild Near-Term Negative for Stocks; Solidly Positive for Medium Term Growth and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • India: Mild Near-Term Negative for Stocks; Solidly Positive for Medium Term Growth
  • Great Game – 5 Things I Expect from Kamalanomics
  • Yield Curve Normalisation on Rate Cut Anticipation
  • CX Daily: Beijing to Bolster Industrial Chains, Promote Private Sector
  • Hong Kong Government Deficit: Early Preamble of Crisis to Come but Still Salvagiable

India: Mild Near-Term Negative for Stocks; Solidly Positive for Medium Term Growth

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • The FY25 Budget projects a fiscal deficit of 4.9% of GDP (vs previous projection of 5.1%), but the 12mma of the fiscal deficit was already 4.8% of GDP by May’24. 
  • With real GDP likely to grow 8.5% this year, direct tax revenue should considerably exceed official projections. Government’s lower borrowing requirement should crowd-in private investment, further fuelling RGDP. 
  • Hikes in LTCG and STT (on derivatives) are near-term negatives for stocks. But fiscal prudence, employment generation and agricultural productivity enhancements will create a virtuous circle in the medium-term. 

Great Game – 5 Things I Expect from Kamalanomics

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • Whoa, yet another completely historical weekend in the US Presidential Race.
  • President Biden is out of contention in what was perhaps the most predictable thing in a completely unpredictable race so far.
  • Now, as we discussed  yesterday, Kamala Harris is entering the race as an underdog, but a Trump landslide in November is far from a foregone conclusion.

Yield Curve Normalisation on Rate Cut Anticipation

By Pranay Yadav

  • The likelihood of imminent rate cuts has increased due to recent cooling in core CPI, driving anticipatory normalization of the yield curve.
  • According to FedWatch, expected rate cuts totaling 100 basis points by March 2025 are driven by cooling inflation, improving economic data, and the increasing fiscal burden of U.S. debt.
  • Historical data shows yield spread between 2Y and 10Y treasuries recovered just before and after rate cuts, signaling investor expectations front-running monetary easing. 

CX Daily: Beijing to Bolster Industrial Chains, Promote Private Sector

By Caixin Global

  • Plenum /: Plenum Explained: Beijing outlines reforms to boost foreign trade and promote the private sector
  • U.S. /Cover Story: U.S. presidential race upended by Biden’s withdrawal, assassination attempt on Trump
  • Corruption /: China’s top prosecutors order arrest of former vice chair of Hunan legislature

Hong Kong Government Deficit: Early Preamble of Crisis to Come but Still Salvagiable

By Alex Ng

  • The Financial Secretary has forecast a budget deficit of HKD 101.6 billion for the 2023-24 fiscal year, almost double its original estimate of HKD 54.4 billion 28 Feb 2024 (KPMG)
  • Although Hong Kong is undergoing the fourth deficit in five years and can be preamble to Crisis, fiscal reserve, estimated HKD 733.2 billion, remain a strong backbone to prevent crisis. 
  • The turning point from healthy to crisis is still to be observed, depending on if the government would scale back fiscal deficit in its next 5-year budgets.

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Jul 24
0

Daily Brief Australia: Psc Insurance, Telix Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue
  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Fund Raising Via Convertible Debentures Amid Strong Business Outlook

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Sep 24 Rebal: The Strong Returns of ASX 300 LONG-SHORT Trade Could Continue

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
  • We see one ASX 100 change and two ASX 200 changes but there are a couple of names lurking just outside the border which have to be monitored carefully.
  • For ASX 300, we see 13 ADDs and 6 DELs. Many of these expected ADDs and DELs could have more than 10 days of volume to trade.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Fund Raising Via Convertible Debentures Amid Strong Business Outlook

By Tina Banerjee

  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) is raising A$600M via convertible debentures to fund key clinical development programs across the company’s therapeutic and diagnostic portfolio.
  • The convertible debentures, which are due to mature in 2029, will have annual yield between 2.00% and 2.75%. These will be listed on the Singapore Exchange.
  • Riding on strong performance during the first half, Telix has raised full-year 2024 revenue guidance by nearly 10% at mid-point to $490M–510M (A$745M–776M), representing 48–54% YoY growth.

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Jul 24
0

Daily Brief South Korea: Kakao Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Kakao Group Founder Kim Beom-Su Gets Arrested – What’s Next?

Kakao Group Founder Kim Beom-Su Gets Arrested – What’s Next?

By Douglas Kim

  • As a result of the arrest of Kim Beom-Su, the near term impact on the Kakao companies (including Kakao Corp, Kakao Bank, Kakao Pay, and Kakao Games) is clearly negative.
  • Given that this is a highly publicized event, it is likely that this legal case will be PROLONGED and finally decided by the Supreme Court which could take several years.
  • Some of the scenarios include Kakao Group selling partial stakes in Kakao Bank and SM Entertainment but this is likely to get dragged on, resulting in further uncertainty.

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