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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: KB Financial, Hana Financial, Bitcoin, Moody’s Corp, Agile Property Holdings, AGBA Group Holding , Aruhi Corp, Dream Incubator and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Alpha Generating Opportunities from the Corporate Value Up Disclosures on the KIND System
  • South Korean Banks; Hana Financial (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS) Are Our Positive Picks
  • Crypto Moves #37 – Three Factors to Rule the Remainder of 2024
  • Ether ETFs Are Looking for a Bitcoin Style Love
  • Moody’s Corporation: Expanding Transaction Revenue and Strong Issuance Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Agile Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • AGBA – Termination of coverage
  • Aruhi Corp (7198 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update
  • Dream Incubator (4310 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update


Alpha Generating Opportunities from the Corporate Value Up Disclosures on the KIND System

By Douglas Kim

  • One of the key takeaways of the Corporate Value Up disclosures on the KIND system is that it could potentially lead to alpha generating investing opportunities. 
  • Since the last week of May, there have been 7 companies that provided specific Corporate Value up programs; (4 major financials) have outperformed KOSPI.
  • Companies such as KB Financial and Shinhan Financial that provide more meaningful Corporate Value Up action plans are likely to have greater impact on their share prices. 

South Korean Banks; Hana Financial (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS) Are Our Positive Picks

By Victor Galliano

  • Delinquency ratios continued to worsen into 2Q24, with a couple of the South Korean banks seeing accelerating growth in NPL ratios; despite this, there are buy opportunities
  • Our bigger cap pick is Hana Financial for its very attractive valuations, PEG and equity risk premia, as well as its solid core capital ratio and strong credit quality credentials
  • Among the smaller caps, Woori stands out in terms of valuation, PEG ratio, credit quality and it has registered improving post-provision returns

Crypto Moves #37 – Three Factors to Rule the Remainder of 2024

By Mads Eberhardt

  • August 1st marks the beginning of the final five months of 2024, a year that has already been extraordinary for the crypto industry.
  • This year has been unforgettable, with the crypto sector making a significant entrance on Wall Street with the launch of the first U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. The U.S. regulatory stance has also become more favorable towards crypto, recognizing it as a pivotal factor in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.
  • Over and above that, banks and other financial institutions are eagerly lining up to offer crypto services.

Ether ETFs Are Looking for a Bitcoin Style Love

By Trillions

  • Successful launch of bitcoin ETF’s led to the filing and approval of Ethereum ETF’s
  • Ethereum is the second largest cryptocurrency after bitcoin, with distinct differences in technology and operation
  • The purpose of an ether ETF is to provide investors with exposure to the growing cryptocurrency market and decentralized technology.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Moody’s Corporation: Expanding Transaction Revenue and Strong Issuance Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Moody’s Corporation reported strong financial results for the latest quarter, showcasing significant growth across key metrics while also acknowledging areas of uncertainty that could impact future performance.
  • The company achieved 22% revenue growth and an adjusted operating margin of nearly 50%, reflecting the firm’s ability to leverage its strong market position and disciplined cost management to generate substantial operating leverage.
  • Additionally, Moody’s adjusted diluted EPS grew by 43%, further demonstrating its profitability and financial health.

Agile Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We view Agile Group’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental and Social scores. That said, Governance is “Weak”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


AGBA – Termination of coverage

By Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research is terminating coverage on AGBA (AGBA) and Norcros (NXR). Please note you should no longer rely on any previous research or estimates for this company. All forecasts should now be considered redundant. Previously published reports can still be accessed via our website.


Aruhi Corp (7198 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Operating revenue: JPY5.5bn (+19.0% YoY), driven by full consolidation of SBI Estate Finance group, origination-related revenue decreased.
  • Operating expenses: JPY4.7bn (+11.6% YoY), driven by finance costs increase, personnel expenses decrease, and commission expenses increase.
  • Pre-tax profit: JPY795mn (+77.1% YoY), with a pre-tax profit margin of 14.5%, reflecting a one-off factor in personnel expenses.

Dream Incubator (4310 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • In Q1 FY03/25, consolidated sales were JPY1.6bn (+38.5% YoY), with an operating profit of JPY48mn (JPY182mn loss in Q1 FY03/24).
  • Business Production segment reported sales of JPY1.1bn (+15.0% YoY) and an operating loss of JPY70mn (JPY107mn profit in Q1 FY03/24).
  • Venture Capital segment reported sales of JPY520mn (+145.3% YoY) and an operating profit of JPY378mn (JPY17mn loss in Q1 FY03/24).

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 26th): Woodside Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 26th): Woodside Energy, Fortescue, ANZ, CSL, Altium, Telstra
  • Screening for GEMs: August 2024


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Jul 26th): Woodside Energy, Fortescue, ANZ, CSL, Altium, Telstra

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Jul 26th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.3bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Woodside Energy, Fortescue, ANZ, CSL, Altium, Telstra.

Screening for GEMs: August 2024

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
  • The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
  • Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.

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Daily Brief ECM: WeRide Pre-IPO – The Positives – Large Monetisation Opportunity on the Horizon and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • WeRide Pre-IPO – The Positives – Large Monetisation Opportunity on the Horizon
  • Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO – RHP Updates – Growing but Slowing
  • Ola Electric IPO: Valuation Analysis. A High-Voltage EV Play
  • Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Investment Case
  • WeRide Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Losses Have Widened, Still in the Early Stages of Commercialization


WeRide Pre-IPO – The Positives – Large Monetisation Opportunity on the Horizon

By Clarence Chu

  • WeRide Corp (WER CH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming US IPO.
  • WeRide provides autonomous driving products and services from L2 to L4 of driving automation.
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO – RHP Updates – Growing but Slowing

By Sumeet Singh

  • BrainBees Solutions is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO. 
  • FirstCry is India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for Mothers’, Babies’ and Kids’ products in terms of GMV, for the year ending Dec 2022 (9M23), according to RedSeer.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about its updated financials in the RHP.

Ola Electric IPO: Valuation Analysis. A High-Voltage EV Play

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Ola Electric (1700674D IN) ‘s IPO appears attractive versus peers based on valuation analysis, supported by detailed sales and revenue projections.  
  • Expect strong near-term revenue growth driven by its dominant market presence, e-mobility expansion, and potential entry into the e-motorcycle segment.
  • With a significant head start in the rapidly growing e2W sector, Ola’s robust product lineup, competitive pricing, and strong brand make it a compelling EV play.

Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: The Investment Case

By Arun George


WeRide Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Losses Have Widened, Still in the Early Stages of Commercialization

By Clarence Chu

  • WeRide Corp (WER CH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming US IPO.
  • WeRide provides autonomous driving products and services from L2 to L4 of driving automation.
  • In this note, we will talk about the not so positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Recession Fears and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Recession Fears
  • Japan Morning Connection: Tech Tumbles
  • China’s Solar Sector Must Consolidate Amid Mounting Losses, Industry Group Warns
  • # 39 India Insight: JSW Cement Bid Orient Cement, Dixon New Plant, IndiaMart Weak Subscriber Growth
  • Episode 77: Asia Semis Tour
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BZ US/3690HK/PDD US/BABA US/SE US/JD US/700HK/NTES US/BIDU/MSFT/TCOM
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/1211 HK/1810 HK/ NIO US/ XPEV US/BEKE/Macro News Update/China Manufacturing


Ohayo Japan | Recession Fears

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks tumbled on Thursday, with the Dow Jones dropping 494 points amid recession fears
  • Japan’s manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in July, indicating contraction. New orders declined due to weak domestic and international demand
  • Hitachi’s Q1 net profit surged 2.5-fold to 175 billion yen, driven by strong AI-related demand in IT services and power distribution

Japan Morning Connection: Tech Tumbles

By Andrew Jackson

  • Big tech reversal after yesterdays gains and a horrible earnings print for INTC sends it -20% in AH trading setting a very bleak tone for JP tech
  • AMZN miss after-mkt on its e-commerce seller services and advertising will weigh on likes of 4755 Rakuten and 4689 LY Corp.
  • Flight to perceived safety in names such as P&G, CL and KMB may provide a bid for related plays in JP such as 4452 Kao, 4912 Lion, and 8113 Unicharm.

China’s Solar Sector Must Consolidate Amid Mounting Losses, Industry Group Warns

By Caixin Global

  • Many Chinese solar manufacturers slowed or halted production altogether in the first half of this year, as they struggled to survive amid overcapacity and an ensuing price war, prompting an industry group to call for faster consolidation among the firms.
  • “It’s rare for the whole industry to lose money,” Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), said at a solar conference in the eastern province of Zhejiang on Thursday.
  • “Among the companies in the main industrial chain that have released their half-year forecasts, most are in a state of loss,” Wang said.

# 39 India Insight: JSW Cement Bid Orient Cement, Dixon New Plant, IndiaMart Weak Subscriber Growth

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • JSW Cement bids for CK Birla’s stake in Orient Cement, reflecting ongoing industry consolidation.
  • Dixon plans new Chennai plant for laptop production, expanding IT manufacturing capabilities.
  • IndiaMART shares fall after weak subscriber growth, despite strong profit and revenue increase.

Episode 77: Asia Semis Tour

By The Circuit

  • High level macro themes include challenges of semiconductors in China and broader consumer trends
  • Overall sentiment in China remains relatively positive despite concerns in the semiconductor industry
  • Huawei’s comeback and success in the semiconductor market is contributing to increasing optimism in the industry, especially in the electronics sector

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BZ US/3690HK/PDD US/BABA US/SE US/JD US/700HK/NTES US/BIDU/MSFT/TCOM

By Ying Pan

  • BZ US: Enterprises’ Recruitment Confidence Shows Slight Recovery in July(+)
  • 3690HK: Meituan and Restaurant Brands Collaborate to Establish Take-out Satellite Stores, Further Penetrating Offline Catering in China.(+)
  • PDD US/BABA US /SHEIN/SE US: Hundreds of Temu merchants protest at Guangzhou headquarters (-/+/+)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:LI US/1211 HK/1810 HK/ NIO US/ XPEV US/BEKE/Macro News Update/China Manufacturing

By Eric Wen

  • Macro News Update: Central Economic Work Conference in July shifts focus of short-term economic efforts to promoting consumption.(+)
  • LI US/1211 HK/1810 HK/ NIO US/ XPEV US: New energy vehicle deliveries generally rose in the 30th week of 2024, with BYD, Ideal and Xiaomi hitting new highs (/////////)
  • BEKE US:A subsidiary of Beike acquires two commercial and residential land in Xi’an (/)

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: MGM China Holdings and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: MGM China Holdings


Morning Views Asia: MGM China Holdings

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: [JAPAN ACTIVISM] – Murakami Group Bigger and Bolder on Exedy – STILL Room to Run and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • [JAPAN ACTIVISM] – Murakami Group Bigger and Bolder on Exedy – STILL Room to Run
  • Pacific Metals (5541 JP): Here We Go Again Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder
  • Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Dec 24: Up to 5 ADDs & 6 DELs Possible
  • Japan – Passive Selling in a Few Weeks & Shorts Build Up


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] – Murakami Group Bigger and Bolder on Exedy – STILL Room to Run

By Travis Lundy

  • In late May, Toyota Group member Aisin (7259 JP) announced it would sell its 37% stake in Exedy Corp (7278 JP). The market dropped. But that was an opportunity. 
  • There was an announcement, a ToSTNeT-3 buyback, the offering, and more buyback to come. On 30 May, I said “Buy the deal, buy in the market. It’s cheap and vulnerable.”
  • Exedy is up 21% since. On 17 June, activist Murakami-san’s group went over 5%. Then they bought more. Now they have 15%. Or more. Still cheap. Still vulnerable. 

Pacific Metals (5541 JP): Here We Go Again Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

By Arun George

  • Murakami’s entity, City Index Eleventh, and daughter reported a 5.40% stake in Pacific Metals (5541 JP). The shares were purchased from 27 May to 25 July.
  • Murakami’s average buy-in price is JPY1,259 per share, an 11.1% discount to the last close price. Murakami has been a substantial shareholder twice before.
  • Murakami’s previous dealings in Pacific Metals were a pump-and-dump where he built up around 8% stake, only to sell into the share price pop subsequently. Expect more of the same.  

Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Dec 24: Up to 5 ADDs & 6 DELs Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in December 2024.
  • We expect up to five ADDs and six DELs in the KOSPI 200 index during the December 2024 index rebal event based on the latest available data.

Japan – Passive Selling in a Few Weeks & Shorts Build Up

By Brian Freitas

  • Up to 12 stocks could be deleted from global passive portfolios in August. The deletion will lead to liquidity events where trackers will need to sell multiple days of ADV.
  • There has been a buildup of shorts on nearly all these stocks though the extent of the pre-positioning varies.
  • The increase in shorts is smaller than the estimated passive selling, though there is a fair amount of variability across the names. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: High Conviction 2024 – CyberAgent: Strong Recovery Across All Three Business Segments and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • High Conviction 2024 – CyberAgent: Strong Recovery Across All Three Business Segments
  • Budweiser APAC (1876 HK): Weak 2Q2024. Premium Beer, Cheap Valuations
  • Amazon Q2 Earnings: Eyes on AWS Margins, Website Traffic, and Advancements in Chips
  • DPC Dash (1405.HK): 1H24 Profit Alert Validating Investment Case
  • [Earnings Preview] Exxon Braces for Profit Hit as Refining Margins Tighten
  • Meta Surges 7% on Strong Q2 Report; Driven by Ad Growth, Q3 Forecast and AI Investments
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-Aug-2024): E Ink & Himax reveal color e-paper controller.
  • Digi Plus Interactive (PLUS PM): Bingo Plus Platform, Trading At 7x PE with >100% Growth In 2024
  • Freelancer – Using AI to enhance revenue and profit growth
  • [Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, SELL, TP US$16.5) TP Change]: Milkteaization Diminishes Differentiation


High Conviction 2024 – CyberAgent: Strong Recovery Across All Three Business Segments

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)  reported 3QFY09/24 results yesterday. Both revenue and OP grew YoY, while revenue beat consensus marginally, OP beat consensus by a huge margin.
  • All three business segments showed strong recovery with notable improvement in gaming business as newly released titles perform well including the newly released UMA MUSUME: Pretty Derby movie.
  • Media business reported OP for the second consecutive quarter and the company has plans to further strengthen monetisation around AbemaTV.

Budweiser APAC (1876 HK): Weak 2Q2024. Premium Beer, Cheap Valuations

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Budweiser Brewing APAC (1876 HK)‘s  performance could improve from 2H2024, driven by a likely recovery in China’s premium beer market and favourable commodity prices.
  • Stock’s upside potential from current price levels seem to outweigh downside risk.
  • With a high dividend payout and strong free cash flow generation, Budweiser trades at a 5% dividend yield and an 11% FCF yield.

Amazon Q2 Earnings: Eyes on AWS Margins, Website Traffic, and Advancements in Chips

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Amazon anticipates a 13% YoY rise in Q2 2024 revenue to $148.67 billion and a 58% YoY jump in EPS to $1.03, highlighting robust earnings.
  • AWS is expected to see a $1 billion increase in quarterly revenue, reflecting an 18% year-over-year growth, driven by custom AI chips and model training services.
  • Analysts have reaffirmed buy ratings for Amazon, with an average target price of $228, reflecting strong confidence in the company’s growth prospects.

DPC Dash (1405.HK): 1H24 Profit Alert Validating Investment Case

By Eric Chen

  • Company issued 1H24 profit alert after market yesterday which significantly beat even the high-end sell-side expectations. 
  • Impressive SSSG and store-level unit economics imply sizable potential for operating leverage and earnings growth in the mid to long term.
  • The profit alert, along with 2Q operating data released earlier, reinforced our confidence in earnings estimates of RMB130 million/RMB300 million for FY24/25 respectively. 

[Earnings Preview] Exxon Braces for Profit Hit as Refining Margins Tighten

By Suhas Reddy

  • ExxonMobil anticipates a USD 1.1 billion to USD 1.5 billion dent on its Q2 earnings due to the industry-wide contraction in refining margins.
  • Exxon Mobil anticipates the USD 300 million to USD 700 million negative impact on earnings from lower gas prices to be offset by gains from higher oil prices.
  • Since acquiring Pioneer, Exxon more than doubled production to 1.3 mboepd from 2023. Full merger effects are expected in Q3.

Meta Surges 7% on Strong Q2 Report; Driven by Ad Growth, Q3 Forecast and AI Investments

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Meta’s Q2 revenue of $39.1B surpassed expectations, up 22% YoY. EPS jumped 73% YoY to $5.16, beating estimates.
  • Ad revenue within the Family of Apps rose 22% YoY, driven by online commerce and strong performance in Europe and the Rest of the World.
  • Q3 revenue forecasted between $38.5B and $41B. Meta’s AI investments are set to enhance ad delivery and support long-term growth, despite increasing CapEx.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-Aug-2024): E Ink & Himax reveal color e-paper controller.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • E Ink and Himax introduce new color e-paper controller to enhance display technology, offering improved visual experience.
  • Taiwan’s Economic Minister outlines plans to boost global competitiveness, focusing on strategic initiatives to strengthen economy.
  • Shanghai commits $13.7 billion investment in IC, AI, and biopharma industries, driving growth in technology sectors.

Digi Plus Interactive (PLUS PM): Bingo Plus Platform, Trading At 7x PE with >100% Growth In 2024

By Sameer Taneja

  • DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM) is the Philippines platform for Bingo Plus and other e-casino games, trading at 7x in the midst of >100% growth in revenue/profitability in 2024. 
  • The company is net cash with a >50% ROE and is in an industry forecast by PAGCOR (regulator) to grow at least 15% CAGR in the future years.
  • We expect explosive Q2 revenue/profit growth of 226%/298% YoY which would act as a share price catalyst. We calculate a dividend of 0.80-1 peso/share (30-40% payout ratio), equating to a 4-5% yield.

Freelancer – Using AI to enhance revenue and profit growth

By Edison Investment Research

Freelancer reported a mixed performance in H124, with Escrow.com volumes down significantly after a very strong Q123, while the Freelancer platform benefited from growth in the Loadshift business. There are several promising opportunities in the enterprise business, including providing AI model training services and integration into new verticals within Escrow.com, that could reinvigorate growth from H224. Management is focused on making incremental improvements to the core marketplace platform with the aim of encouraging clients to become regular users of the platform and expanding the size of projects.


[Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US, SELL, TP US$16.5) TP Change]: Milkteaization Diminishes Differentiation

By Eric Wen

  • Luckin’s SSSG declined 20.9%YoY in the peak season, indicating diseconomies of scale for Luckin and a deteriorated competitive environment. We do not expect a quick turnaround in the near term.
  • We think Luckin has limited capability to further raise its prices in 3Q24, and expect its NPM to be 11.9%/7.1% in 3Q24/4Q24 as the new norm.
  • We keep SELL rating and lower TP to US$16.5/ADS. The stock trading at 20x/16x PE in 2024/2025, and we expect the NI to increase 15%CAGR in the next 2 years.

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Daily Brief Macro: Absolute Principles of Stock Investment (주식투자절대원칙) – A Book Review and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Absolute Principles of Stock Investment (주식투자절대원칙) – A Book Review
  • [ETP 31/2024] Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Tensions; BP and Shell Beat Earnings Expectations
  • Miners at Peak Risk/Reward
  • BoE Cut Through Fine Balance
  • Fed Snap (Jul 31 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways
  • FOMC Waits; Despite Politics, 3 Rate Cuts Are Likely This Year as Inflation Abates
  • CX Daily: ‘Exorbitant’ Fines Land Temu in Hot Water With Chinese Merchants
  • Actinver Research – Supermarkets post 2Q24: Sales deceleration with healthy margins (Sector Update)
  • Actinver – Macro Daily: Remittances and Business Confidence


Absolute Principles of Stock Investment (주식투자절대원칙) – A Book Review

By Douglas Kim

  • This insight is a book review of 주식투자절대원칙 (Absolute Principles of Stock Investment), which was written by a famous Korean retail investor called Park Young-Ok.
  • Park tries to capture his 30+ years of investing wisdom. I thought this book was excellent, especially because Park included a lot of local flavor of his mindset in investing. 
  • This insight provides 11 major highlights of the book ‘Absolute Principles of Stock Investment.’

[ETP 31/2024] Oil Prices Surge on Middle East Tensions; BP and Shell Beat Earnings Expectations

By Suhas Reddy

  • US crude inventories fell for the fifth consecutive week by 3.4 mb, exceeding the 1.6 mb decline expected by analysts. Gasoline stocks also decreased by 3.7 mb.
  • As of the week ending 26/Jul, US natural gas inventories were up 8.4% YoY and 15.7% above the 5-year seasonal average.
  • European oil majors beat Q2 profit estimates. BP’s Q2 underlying net profit beat estimates by 7.7%. Shell’s Q2 EPS beat estimates by 5.1%. 

Miners at Peak Risk/Reward

By Money of Mine

  • Champion Iron Ore, also known as Champ, is a premium producer in the iron ore sector with potential for increased attention over time.
  • Adriatic Metals is ramping up production at their Vares silver-zinc polymetallic deposit in Bosnia, but facing challenges with cash flow and development rates.
  • Cash flow issues, teething problems with mining services, and logistical challenges are hindering Adriatic’s ramp up, but they are on track to reach their nameplate by Q4.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


BoE Cut Through Fine Balance

By Phil Rush

  • The BoE cut by 25bp to 5.0%, as we expected, but still provided dovish news as the decision was finely balanced for and between MPC members, the consensus and pricing.
  • Confidence in the forecast increased enough for a rate cut, yet risks now skew to the upside from persistently high wage inflation. It is noncommittal about cutting again.
  • We still expect another cut in November before pausing amid excessive wage growth. That modal call could invert to rate hikes if the Fed also cuts prematurely.

Fed Snap (Jul 31 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

By Thomas Lam

  • Market sentiment improved as the prospect of a September Fed pivot increased following the July FOMC meeting
  • While the July FOMC statement and Chair Powell’s presser hinted toward a rate cut, the former seems more ambivalent than the latter 
  • Although the current focus is squarely on the timing of the first rate cut, the future path of policy remains unclear at this time

FOMC Waits; Despite Politics, 3 Rate Cuts Are Likely This Year as Inflation Abates

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • FOMC held rates steady at 5.25-5.5%, but emphasized that “a reduction could be on the table…in September”. From inflation risks alone, the FOMC statement shifted focus to its dual mandate.  
  • 0.9%YoY M2 growth (Jun’24) evidences restrictive monetary conditions. Withdrawing QT after Aug’23 led to Jan-Apr’24 shocks in MoM core PCE, but latter now reined-in by resumed QT since Mar’24.
  • Core PCE inflation likely to wane to 2.3%YoY by Sep’24, enabling rates to decline 25bp at each of the next 3 FOMC meetings, ignoring political threats regarding the Sep’24 cut.

CX Daily: ‘Exorbitant’ Fines Land Temu in Hot Water With Chinese Merchants

By Caixin Global

  • Temu / In Depth: ‘Exorbitant’ fines land Temu in hot water with Chinese merchants
  • Politburo /: Politburo promises new measures to tackle local debt risks and clear economic hurdles
  • Regulators /: China securities regulator names law enforcement chief as vice chairman

Actinver Research – Supermarkets post 2Q24: Sales deceleration with healthy margins (Sector Update)

By Actinver

  • Supermarket 2Q24 results were overall mixed vs our estimates, with sales decelerating amid mostly calendar headwinds, and La Comer posting the best SSS and sales performance; all of our 3 covered players still beat the industry and thus continue to gain market share, as expected.
  • In terms of profitability, the 3 companies were able to post solid gross margin expansion amid efficiencies and product mix, yet SG&A pressure, amid higher labor expenses, offset most of this pressure as expected; Chedraui was the only player able to post a slight EBITDA margin expansion.
  • Having recently launched our Supermarkets coverage (link to report here), we continue to see Chedraui (Outperform, P$160 PT) as the best positioned supermarket for either consumer trade up or trade down, as well as with a healthy format and geographical diversification.

Actinver – Macro Daily: Remittances and Business Confidence

By Actinver

  • Remittances: In June, USD 6.2 billion in remittances came to the country, the highest numbers for a single month, reinforcing its role as the main source of net dollars into the country.
  • The accumulated flow in the year increased to USD 31.3 billion, 3.6% more than observed in the same period of 2023.
  • Remittances have increased at both extensive and intensive levels.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Hanwha Aerospace and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Dec 24: Up to 5 ADDs & 6 DELs Possible


Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Dec 24: Up to 5 ADDs & 6 DELs Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in December 2024.
  • We expect up to five ADDs and six DELs in the KOSPI 200 index during the December 2024 index rebal event based on the latest available data.

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Daily Brief Australia: Freelancer Ltd, Iron Ore, ADX Energy Ltd, Qantm Intellectual Property and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Freelancer – Using AI to enhance revenue and profit growth
  • Miners at Peak Risk/Reward
  • ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Reflections on Welchau
  • Qantm Intellectual Property – Special dividend declared, EGM passes in favour


Freelancer – Using AI to enhance revenue and profit growth

By Edison Investment Research

Freelancer reported a mixed performance in H124, with Escrow.com volumes down significantly after a very strong Q123, while the Freelancer platform benefited from growth in the Loadshift business. There are several promising opportunities in the enterprise business, including providing AI model training services and integration into new verticals within Escrow.com, that could reinvigorate growth from H224. Management is focused on making incremental improvements to the core marketplace platform with the aim of encouraging clients to become regular users of the platform and expanding the size of projects.


Miners at Peak Risk/Reward

By Money of Mine

  • Champion Iron Ore, also known as Champ, is a premium producer in the iron ore sector with potential for increased attention over time.
  • Adriatic Metals is ramping up production at their Vares silver-zinc polymetallic deposit in Bosnia, but facing challenges with cash flow and development rates.
  • Cash flow issues, teething problems with mining services, and logistical challenges are hindering Adriatic’s ramp up, but they are on track to reach their nameplate by Q4.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Reflections on Welchau

By Auctus Advisors

  • Independent consultants have calculated that each of the three reservoirs encountered at Welchau (Reifling – 128 metres, Steinalm -118 metres and the Guttenstein – 111 metres) are hydrocarbon bearing with uncertainty on the hydrocarbon type.
  • Laboratory work on the Steinalm reservoir has confirmed the full properties ofthe 43° API light sweet oil that was recovered in an MDT sample run in the Steinalm Formation.
  • The vertical extent of this light oil in the Steinalm or in the shallower Reifling and deeper Guttenstein is uncertain and there is no clear evidence of a hydrocarbon-water contact in any of the reservoir formations based on the open hole wireline log data.

Qantm Intellectual Property – Special dividend declared, EGM passes in favour

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published an update report on IP services group QANTM Intellectual Property (ASX:QIP) following the company’s EGM which saw more than 98.6% of shareholders vote in favour of the Scheme of Arrangement.
  • Directors have declared, subject to the Scheme becoming effective, a fully-franked special dividend of $0.071/share, which will be included in the $1.817/share consideration being paid by Adamantem Capital.
  • Next steps are approval of the Scheme at a second court hearing scheduled for today, shares suspension from close of trading on Monday 5 August with the Scheme to be implemented on 19 August, subject to all conditions being met.

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