Category

Daily Briefs

Aug 03
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

By Joe Jasper

  • We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
  • Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
  • Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)

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Aug 03
0

Daily Brief ECM: Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO – Not Very Attractive but It Is Relatively Cheap and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO – Not Very Attractive but It Is Relatively Cheap
  • Ola Electric IPO- Forensic Analysis

Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO – Not Very Attractive but It Is Relatively Cheap

By Sumeet Singh

  • BrainBees Solutions is looking to raise up to US$500m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • FirstCry is India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for Mothers’, Babies’ and Kids’ products in terms of GMV, for the year ending Dec 2022 (9M23), according to RedSeer.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance. In this note, we will talk about valuations.

Ola Electric IPO- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Ola Electric (1700674D IN) is launching its IPO, consisting of fresh issue worth INR 5.5 bn and offer for sale upto 84.9 mn shares.
  • The company delivered its first electric scooter in December 2021, and since then it has grown immensely to become a market leader with a share of 35%.
  • As far as forensics go, one should look out for related party transactions with promoters, some accounting policies, constant losses, need for capex, trend of expenses, etc.

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Aug 03
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Moves #37 – Three Factors to Rule the Remainder of 2024 and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #37 – Three Factors to Rule the Remainder of 2024
  • Ether ETFs Are Looking for a Bitcoin Style Love

Crypto Moves #37 – Three Factors to Rule the Remainder of 2024

By Mads Eberhardt

  • August 1st marks the beginning of the final five months of 2024, a year that has already been extraordinary for the crypto industry.
  • This year has been unforgettable, with the crypto sector making a significant entrance on Wall Street with the launch of the first U.S. Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs. The U.S. regulatory stance has also become more favorable towards crypto, recognizing it as a pivotal factor in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election.
  • Over and above that, banks and other financial institutions are eagerly lining up to offer crypto services.

Ether ETFs Are Looking for a Bitcoin Style Love

By Trillions

  • Successful launch of bitcoin ETF’s led to the filing and approval of Ethereum ETF’s
  • Ethereum is the second largest cryptocurrency after bitcoin, with distinct differences in technology and operation
  • The purpose of an ether ETF is to provide investors with exposure to the growing cryptocurrency market and decentralized technology.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

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Aug 03
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: PCCW’s Premium To NAV Is Unsustainable and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: PCCW’s Premium To NAV Is Unsustainable
  • Alpha Generating Opportunities from the Corporate Value Up Disclosures on the KIND System

StubWorld: PCCW’s Premium To NAV Is Unsustainable

By David Blennerhassett

  • Continued stub losses are one thing. Ballooning PCCW Ltd (8 HK) parent debt is another. 
  • Preceding my comments on PCCW and HKT Ltd (6823 HK) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
  • .These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

Alpha Generating Opportunities from the Corporate Value Up Disclosures on the KIND System

By Douglas Kim

  • One of the key takeaways of the Corporate Value Up disclosures on the KIND system is that it could potentially lead to alpha generating investing opportunities. 
  • Since the last week of May, there have been 7 companies that provided specific Corporate Value up programs; (4 major financials) have outperformed KOSPI.
  • Companies such as KB Financial and Shinhan Financial that provide more meaningful Corporate Value Up action plans are likely to have greater impact on their share prices. 

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Aug 03
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Nintendo (7974) | Game Over for Switch and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Nintendo (7974) | Game Over for Switch
  • Intel Q224 Meltdown. Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You…
  • Asian Dividend Gems: KT Corp
  • Waste Connections Inc.: Expansion of Core Solid Waste Pricing & Other Major Drivers
  • United Rentals Inc.: An Analysis Of Their Acquisition-Led Growth & Competitive Advantage! – Major Drivers
  • Ford Motor Company: EV Segment Losses & Surging Warranty Costs Are A Major Concern! – Major Drivers
  • South Korean Banks; Hana Financial (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS) Are Our Positive Picks
  • O’Reilly Automotive Inc.: What Major Challenges Did They Face & How Is The Management Overcoming Them? – Major Drivers
  • Fortive Corporation: How Is The Strategic De-risking in Advanced Market Engagements Working Out? – Major Drivers
  • Newmont Corporation: What Is Their Portfolio Optimization Strategy? – Major Drivers

Nintendo (7974) | Game Over for Switch

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nintendo missed Q1 with Operating income coming in at Y54.5b (-71% YoY) vs our estimate Y116b and the street at Y94b
  • Switch 2 hardware and software units sold are now suffering from buyer fatigue as consumers await the next-gen console
  • The stock will likely fall quite sharply over the next week. Looking for good buying opportunity in anticipation of the next console cycle

Intel Q224 Meltdown. Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You…

By William Keating

  • Q224 revenues of $12.8 billion, in line with their updated May outlook, ~flat QoQ and down 1% YoY.
  • Gross margin (non-GAAP) was 38.7%, down 1.1 points YoY but down a whopping 4.8 points from the April outlook.
  • Shares tanked >24% in after hours trading. What’s really going on at Intel? 

Asian Dividend Gems: KT Corp

By Douglas Kim

  • We have a Positive view of KT Corp (030200 KS) due to three main reasons.
  • First, KT has started to implement aggressive capital return policy (returning 50% of net income through dividends and share buybacks/cancellations). Two other reasons include Corporate Value Up and higher Smartscore.
  • KT Corp has been the best performing stock among the three major Korean telcos in the past one year. KT Corp’s shares are up 27.9% in the past one year.

Waste Connections Inc.: Expansion of Core Solid Waste Pricing & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Waste Connections demonstrated strong financial performance in the latest quarter, driven by solid waste pricing and effective cost management.
  • The company’s revenue grew by over 11%, with core solid waste pricing contributing significantly to this growth.
  • Despite a slight decline in volumes, the company’s strategic approach to pricing and contract renewals has maintained revenue quality, offsetting the negative impact of lower special waste volumes and other cyclical challenges.

United Rentals Inc.: An Analysis Of Their Acquisition-Led Growth & Competitive Advantage! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • United Rentals recently discussed its financial performance and strategic direction, presenting a mixed but robust picture of its operational and financial health.
  • The company reported a notable increase in total revenue, which rose by 6% year-over-year to $3.8 billion in the second quarter, with rental revenue climbing 8% to $3.2 billion.
  • This growth was bolstered by fleet productivity, which also saw an improvement of 4.6%.

Ford Motor Company: EV Segment Losses & Surging Warranty Costs Are A Major Concern! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ford Motor Company’s second quarter 2024 performance offers a comprehensive snapshot of a transitional phase in the company’s long-standing history.
  • The quarter reflects their advancing Ford+ strategic plan which aims to refine operational efficiencies and bolster profit margins through structural adaptations and technological advancements.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

South Korean Banks; Hana Financial (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS) Are Our Positive Picks

By Victor Galliano

  • Delinquency ratios continued to worsen into 2Q24, with a couple of the South Korean banks seeing accelerating growth in NPL ratios; despite this, there are buy opportunities
  • Our bigger cap pick is Hana Financial for its very attractive valuations, PEG and equity risk premia, as well as its solid core capital ratio and strong credit quality credentials
  • Among the smaller caps, Woori stands out in terms of valuation, PEG ratio, credit quality and it has registered improving post-provision returns

O’Reilly Automotive Inc.: What Major Challenges Did They Face & How Is The Management Overcoming Them? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. faced a challenging second quarter in 2024, with performance below expectations due to broader industry demand headwinds.
  • Despite these challenges, the company reported a 2.3% increase in comparable store sales, continuing to outperform the industry.
  • Adjustments in full-year outlook for operating profit and earnings per share were made following these results.

Fortive Corporation: How Is The Strategic De-risking in Advanced Market Engagements Working Out? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fortive Corporation’s recent earnings report underscores its strategic focus and financial agility in today’s economic environment.
  • The firm showcased a robust display of financial discipline and strategic execution, achieving earnings and free cash flow at the high end of expectations.
  • Despite facing a low growth environment, Fortive demonstrated a remarkable 90 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion and a 9% growth in adjusted earnings, which highlights its operational efficacy and resilience.

Newmont Corporation: What Is Their Portfolio Optimization Strategy? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Newmont Corporation reported strong second quarter results, keeping the company well-aligned with its 2024 guidance and reinforcing its position to improve financial performance as the year progresses.
  • In the quarter under review, Newmont achieved a production of 1.6 million ounces of gold, alongside 477,000 gold equivalent ounces from other minerals including copper, leading to a solid cash flow generation of $1.4 billion from operations and $594 million in free cash flow.
  • These figures underscore the company’s robust operational achievements despite the usual challenges faced in the mining sector.

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Aug 03
0

Daily Brief Macro: EM Watch: Why China is trying to wreak havoc on your Gold longs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • EM Watch: Why China is trying to wreak havoc on your Gold longs
  • Asset Allocation Watch – What to buy in the upcoming Fed cutting cycle?
  • As Sales Surge, Electric Trucks Could Be Here for the Long Haul
  • JPY Movement Under Fed Rate Cut and BOJ Rate Rise
  • HEW: Rates Go Your Own Way

EM Watch: Why China is trying to wreak havoc on your Gold longs

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to our Weekly EM editorial.
  • In light of a likely Fed cutting cycle commencing in September, we will analyze why this cycle is anything but ordinary and how the EM price cycle may disrupt standard playbooks on trading a US cutting cycle.
  • Key Takeaways: Gold is likely to perform (much) worse than during a typical Fed cutting cycle. China is actively trying to cool down the gold market. The EM inflation cycle is indicative of what’s upcoming in DM markets into 2025. The Copper to Gold ratio is a screaming “buy” given this context.

Asset Allocation Watch – What to buy in the upcoming Fed cutting cycle?

By Andreas Steno

  • Markets are currently busy preparing for the upcoming cutting cycle from the Fed, expected to start in September.
  • The simple playbook is often used when markets face a “high probability event,” and markets are now acting as if they know what’s ahead.
  • A Fed cutting cycle is triggered by a recession; therefore, buy bonds, sell risk assets, and buy gold, etc.

As Sales Surge, Electric Trucks Could Be Here for the Long Haul

By Caixin Global

  • Trucks /In Depth: As sales surge, electric trucks could be here for the long haul
  • Drones /: China adds drone components with military applications to export blacklist
  • PMI /: China’s manufacturing shrinks for first time in nine months as demand falls, Caixin PMI shows

JPY Movement Under Fed Rate Cut and BOJ Rate Rise

By Alex Ng

  • JPY has gained momentum since prospect of Fed rate cut rises and BOJ raised interest rate.
  • Yen has depreciated by 32% over the past 4 years. As dollar/yen strengthens to over 150, we believe Yen will recover to 110 level as US Treasury Yields move lower.
  • As US yields lower, the USD bond held by BOJ will move higher and Bank of Japan will be forced to sell USD bond and USD to rebalance their portfolio.

HEW: Rates Go Your Own Way

By Phil Rush

  • There was a significant policy divergence over the past week, with the Bank of England cutting rates, the Bank of Japan hiking rates, and the Federal Reserve subtly indicating a potential rate hike in September. Euro Area inflation also increased, which was unexpected, but was in line with our forecast.
  • Despite upcoming decisions from the Reserve Bank of Australia, Mexico and Peru, macro events may not be the focus next week due to a lack of data releases on the calendar.
  • There will be a flurry of data releases from the UK in the middle of the following week, and an updated monthly publication will be released.

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Aug 03
0

Daily Brief Thailand: Valeura Energy Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Wassana production restart

Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Wassana production restart

By Auctus Advisors

  • Through advanced underwater inspection, including magnetic particle inspection, Valeura has concluded that the observed anomaly (a crack within a weld) on the Wassana MOPU is superficial, and accordingly does not constitute a risk to the structural integrity of the facility.
  • Valeura has begun the process of restarting production operations and anticipates achieving pre-suspension oil production rates of ~5,000 bbl/d within a week.
  • Valeura is looking to accelerate the redevelopment of the Wassana field.

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Aug 03
0

Daily Brief South Korea: KB Financial, KT Corp, Hana Financial and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Alpha Generating Opportunities from the Corporate Value Up Disclosures on the KIND System
  • Asian Dividend Gems: KT Corp
  • South Korean Banks; Hana Financial (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS) Are Our Positive Picks

Alpha Generating Opportunities from the Corporate Value Up Disclosures on the KIND System

By Douglas Kim

  • One of the key takeaways of the Corporate Value Up disclosures on the KIND system is that it could potentially lead to alpha generating investing opportunities. 
  • Since the last week of May, there have been 7 companies that provided specific Corporate Value up programs; (4 major financials) have outperformed KOSPI.
  • Companies such as KB Financial and Shinhan Financial that provide more meaningful Corporate Value Up action plans are likely to have greater impact on their share prices. 

Asian Dividend Gems: KT Corp

By Douglas Kim

  • We have a Positive view of KT Corp (030200 KS) due to three main reasons.
  • First, KT has started to implement aggressive capital return policy (returning 50% of net income through dividends and share buybacks/cancellations). Two other reasons include Corporate Value Up and higher Smartscore.
  • KT Corp has been the best performing stock among the three major Korean telcos in the past one year. KT Corp’s shares are up 27.9% in the past one year.

South Korean Banks; Hana Financial (086790 KS) And Woori (316140 KS) Are Our Positive Picks

By Victor Galliano

  • Delinquency ratios continued to worsen into 2Q24, with a couple of the South Korean banks seeing accelerating growth in NPL ratios; despite this, there are buy opportunities
  • Our bigger cap pick is Hana Financial for its very attractive valuations, PEG and equity risk premia, as well as its solid core capital ratio and strong credit quality credentials
  • Among the smaller caps, Woori stands out in terms of valuation, PEG ratio, credit quality and it has registered improving post-provision returns

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Aug 03
0

Daily Brief United States: Intel Corp, Waste Connections , United Rentals, Whirlpool Corp, Ford Motor Co, Fortive , Newmont Mining, O’Reilly Automotive, Republic Services, Tenet Healthcare and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Intel Q224 Meltdown. Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You…
  • Waste Connections Inc.: Expansion of Core Solid Waste Pricing & Other Major Drivers
  • United Rentals Inc.: An Analysis Of Their Acquisition-Led Growth & Competitive Advantage! – Major Drivers
  • Whirlpool Corporation: How Is The Management Executing Global Market Penetration and Diversification! – Major Drivers
  • Ford Motor Company: EV Segment Losses & Surging Warranty Costs Are A Major Concern! – Major Drivers
  • Fortive Corporation: How Is The Strategic De-risking in Advanced Market Engagements Working Out? – Major Drivers
  • Newmont Corporation: What Is Their Portfolio Optimization Strategy? – Major Drivers
  • O’Reilly Automotive Inc.: What Major Challenges Did They Face & How Is The Management Overcoming Them? – Major Drivers
  • Republic Services Group: Strategic Acquisitions
  • Tenet Healthcare Corporation: Focus on Ambulatory Surgical Centers (ASC) Growth & Enhanced Operational Management! – Major Drivers

Intel Q224 Meltdown. Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You…

By William Keating

  • Q224 revenues of $12.8 billion, in line with their updated May outlook, ~flat QoQ and down 1% YoY.
  • Gross margin (non-GAAP) was 38.7%, down 1.1 points YoY but down a whopping 4.8 points from the April outlook.
  • Shares tanked >24% in after hours trading. What’s really going on at Intel? 

Waste Connections Inc.: Expansion of Core Solid Waste Pricing & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Waste Connections demonstrated strong financial performance in the latest quarter, driven by solid waste pricing and effective cost management.
  • The company’s revenue grew by over 11%, with core solid waste pricing contributing significantly to this growth.
  • Despite a slight decline in volumes, the company’s strategic approach to pricing and contract renewals has maintained revenue quality, offsetting the negative impact of lower special waste volumes and other cyclical challenges.

United Rentals Inc.: An Analysis Of Their Acquisition-Led Growth & Competitive Advantage! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • United Rentals recently discussed its financial performance and strategic direction, presenting a mixed but robust picture of its operational and financial health.
  • The company reported a notable increase in total revenue, which rose by 6% year-over-year to $3.8 billion in the second quarter, with rental revenue climbing 8% to $3.2 billion.
  • This growth was bolstered by fleet productivity, which also saw an improvement of 4.6%.

Whirlpool Corporation: How Is The Management Executing Global Market Penetration and Diversification! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Whirlpool Corporation reported its second quarter earnings for 2024, reflecting a mixed performance amid a challenging macroeconomic environment.
  • The company showed strong sequential global margin expansion and reiterated its net sales guidance at $16.9 billion.
  • However, it faced downward pressure on discretionary demand due to the soft housing market, particularly affecting the North American market.

Ford Motor Company: EV Segment Losses & Surging Warranty Costs Are A Major Concern! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Ford Motor Company’s second quarter 2024 performance offers a comprehensive snapshot of a transitional phase in the company’s long-standing history.
  • The quarter reflects their advancing Ford+ strategic plan which aims to refine operational efficiencies and bolster profit margins through structural adaptations and technological advancements.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Fortive Corporation: How Is The Strategic De-risking in Advanced Market Engagements Working Out? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fortive Corporation’s recent earnings report underscores its strategic focus and financial agility in today’s economic environment.
  • The firm showcased a robust display of financial discipline and strategic execution, achieving earnings and free cash flow at the high end of expectations.
  • Despite facing a low growth environment, Fortive demonstrated a remarkable 90 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion and a 9% growth in adjusted earnings, which highlights its operational efficacy and resilience.

Newmont Corporation: What Is Their Portfolio Optimization Strategy? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Newmont Corporation reported strong second quarter results, keeping the company well-aligned with its 2024 guidance and reinforcing its position to improve financial performance as the year progresses.
  • In the quarter under review, Newmont achieved a production of 1.6 million ounces of gold, alongside 477,000 gold equivalent ounces from other minerals including copper, leading to a solid cash flow generation of $1.4 billion from operations and $594 million in free cash flow.
  • These figures underscore the company’s robust operational achievements despite the usual challenges faced in the mining sector.

O’Reilly Automotive Inc.: What Major Challenges Did They Face & How Is The Management Overcoming Them? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • O’Reilly Automotive, Inc. faced a challenging second quarter in 2024, with performance below expectations due to broader industry demand headwinds.
  • Despite these challenges, the company reported a 2.3% increase in comparable store sales, continuing to outperform the industry.
  • Adjustments in full-year outlook for operating profit and earnings per share were made following these results.

Republic Services Group: Strategic Acquisitions

By Baptista Research

  • Republic Services has reported robust second quarter results, continuing its positive momentum with strategic execution in key areas including customer engagement, digital transformation, and sustainable practices.
  • Revenue growth in the quarter stood at 9%, while adjusted EBITDA grew by 13%, reflecting strong operational performance and efficient management strategies.
  • This growth was driven by a focus on high-quality customer service and organic growth, maintaining a customer retention rate above 94%.

Tenet Healthcare Corporation: Focus on Ambulatory Surgical Centers (ASC) Growth & Enhanced Operational Management! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Tenet Healthcare Corporation delivered robust financial results in the second quarter of 2024, surpassing expectations with net operating revenues recorded at $5.1 billion.
  • The performance was marked by a notable 12% year-over-year growth in consolidated adjusted EBITDA, which reached $945 million, translating to an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18.5%.
  • This growth is primarily attributed to strong operational execution and strategic expansions across its segments.

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Aug 03
0

Daily Brief Singapore: Dyna Mac Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • 60+ Singapore Stocks that Added to 1H24 Gains in July

60+ Singapore Stocks that Added to 1H24 Gains in July

By Geoff Howie

  • More than 60 of Singapore’s 300 most traded stocks this year added to their 1H24 gains in July.
  • Multi-Chem, SATS, Singtel, Civmec, Kim Heng, Accrelist, Great Eastern, Dyna-Mac, Venture, Azeus and Hock Lian Seng saw the most acceleration in net institutional inflow in July compared to 1H24 inflow, while averaging 12% price gains for the month.
  • The 63 stocks among the 300 most traded stocks this year that built upon their first-half gains in July are tabled below.

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