Category

Daily Briefs

Oct 17
0

Daily Brief Financials: Haitong Securities Co Ltd (H), AUB Group Limited, Bitcoin, FP Partner, Moon River Capital and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • GJS/Haitong Merger Musings
  • AUB Group Placement – Well Flagged Selldown Will Clear the Overhang
  • Digital Asset Landscape Primer: Part 1
  • FP Partner (7388 JP): Q3 FY11/24 flash update
  • MOO: Metallurgical Analysis Supports By-Product Metals

GJS/Haitong Merger Musings

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back in March, the CSRC said it aimed to “form two to three investment banks and institutions with international competitiveness and market leadership by 2035″.
  • Last week’s announced merger between China’s leading state-backed brokerages, Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and Haitong (6837 HK), is a move in that direction. Expect more scrip mergers to follow. 
  • There have also been some media reports that the GJS/Haitong terms disadvantage holders of other Hong Kong broker stocks if potentially acquired in a merger. It’s not quite that simple. 

AUB Group Placement – Well Flagged Selldown Will Clear the Overhang

By Clarence Chu

  • Odyssey is looking to raise A$277m (US$186m) from selling its entire stake in AUB Group Limited (AUB AU).
  • The PE has been invested since May 2022 with its stake subjected to a two-year escrow period. There have been media reports surrounding the selldown over the past few months.
  • In this note, we’ll run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Digital Asset Landscape Primer: Part 1

By Christopher Rosa

  • Blockchain Basics: Blockchain is a decentralized ledger recording transactions without a central authority. Participants validate and store immutable, transparent data, ensuring trust and security throughout the network.
  • Blockchain Layers: The blockchain ecosystem consists of Layer 1 (core blockchain), Layer 2 (scaling solutions), and Layer 3 (applications), all working together to enable secure, scalable interactions with blockchain technology.
  • Key Concepts: Blockchain principles include immutability (data cannot be changed), permissionless participation (open to anyone), and decentralization (no single entity controls the system), ensuring security, transparency, and trust across networks.

FP Partner (7388 JP): Q3 FY11/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue for cumulative Q3 FY11/24 reached JPY27.0bn, a 17.7% YoY increase, achieving 75.7% of the full-year forecast.
  • Operating profit decreased by 3.1% YoY to JPY4.4bn, with a shift towards foreign currency-denominated products impacting margins.
  • Full-year forecasts for operating profit, recurring profit, and net income were revised downward due to sales mix changes.

MOO: Metallurgical Analysis Supports By-Product Metals

By Atrium Research

  • Moon River announced the initial results from analysis on the by-product metals in the Davidson deposit (tungsten, copper, REEs and gallium).
  • The results showed high potential recovery for tungsten and possibly copper, giving us confidence in the upcoming metallurgical results.
  • This is the first step in MOO’s goal of including these by-product metals in the mine plan, potentially improving the economics in the PEA.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 16
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: KRX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 11th): Samsung Electronics and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 11th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, Posco, Shinhan Group
  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Citic Sec, Hkex, Trip.Com, ICBC, CCB, New World Dev

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 11th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, Posco, Shinhan Group

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Oct 11th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD4.7bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, Posco, Shinhan Group.

HK Short Interest Weekly: Meituan, Citic Sec, Hkex, Trip.Com, ICBC, CCB, New World Dev

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Oct 4th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in Meituan, Citic Sec, Hkex, Trip.Com, ICBC, CCB, New World Dev.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 16
0

Daily Brief ESG: Keppel: Study on Disclosure (Report 1) and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Keppel: Study on Disclosure (Report 1)

Keppel: Study on Disclosure (Report 1)

By Tan Yee Peng

  • Keppel Ltd, once renowned for its offshore marine and real estate businesses, is undertaking a fundamental transformation to become a global asset manager with S$200bn in funds under management (FUM) by 2030.
  • It is unprecedented for an industrial operator to successfully transform into an asset manager of such scale.
  • As such, close attention ought to be given to the progress and prospects of Keppel’s transformation. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 16
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Thematic Report : How India’s Biggest IPOs Have Performed? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Thematic Report : How India’s Biggest IPOs Have Performed?
  • Ohayo Japan | Oil & Tech Sell Off
  • Japan Morning Connection: SPE Set for a Serous Pullback After ASML Order Outlook
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/1211HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/MNSO US/ATAT US/002352 CH/2618HK/ZTO US/Macro
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US/4385JP/4689JP/NTES US/MSFT US/BIDU/700HK
  • # 64 India Insights: JSW ReNew Solar Agreement with NTPC, KSK Mahanadi Insolvency, Zomato Xtreme
  • Australia – Job Vacancies Data Continue To Weaken, Reminding Us of HFD Bankruptcies Data

Thematic Report : How India’s Biggest IPOs Have Performed?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Hyundai Motor India (1342Z IN) plans India’s largest IPO, valued at Rs. 27,870 crore.
  • Historical data shows large IPOs often underperform, raising concerns about valuation and market timing.
  • Caution is essential; analyzing fundamentals over hype is crucial for IPO investments.

Ohayo Japan | Oil & Tech Sell Off

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks retreated Thursday as crude oil prices dropped and technology shares weakened. The S&P 500 slipped 0.8%.
  • ASML revised its 2025 sales forecast downward, citing sustained semiconductor market weakness outside of AI-related chips
  • Nvidia shares fell 4.5% after reports that the Biden administration might restrict U.S. chip exports to Persian Gulf countries for national security.

Japan Morning Connection: SPE Set for a Serous Pullback After ASML Order Outlook

By Andrew Jackson

  • Japan SPE set for a big pullback after a terrible ASML order outlook.
  • EUV related plays will be under pressure including Lasertec and Hoya.
  • Expect rotation towards domestic defensive, with rails in focus after Tokyo Metro IPO priced top of range.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/1211HK/LI US/NIO US/XPEV US/MNSO US/ATAT US/002352 CH/2618HK/ZTO US/Macro

By Eric Wen

  • Macro News Update: Weak Household Loan Data in September Highlights Urgency for Consumption Stimulus
  • Macro News Update : Scholars within China’s government system indicates more incremental stimulus policies are on the way.
  • Macro News Update : Positive read thru on the Ministry of Finance press release(+)

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US/4385JP/4689JP/NTES US/MSFT US/BIDU/700HK

By Ying Pan

  • BABA US/PDD US/JD US/VIPS US: Tmall shares recent growth figures and Double 11 initiatives (+/-/-/-)
  • BABA US/PDD US/SHEIN/4385 JP/4689 JP: AliExpress and Cainiao expand 5-day delivery to three additional countries including Japan (+/-/-)
  • BABA US/JD US/PDD US: Alibaba launches upgraded AI-based store management tool (+/-/-)

# 64 India Insights: JSW ReNew Solar Agreement with NTPC, KSK Mahanadi Insolvency, Zomato Xtreme

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • JSW Renew Energy Signs 700 MW Solar Agreement with NTPC
  • SC Revives Adani’s INR 27,000 Crore Insolvency Resolution for KSK Mahanadi
  • Zomato Xtreme Relaunches with Renewed Focus on the Food Delivery

Australia – Job Vacancies Data Continue To Weaken, Reminding Us of HFD Bankruptcies Data

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Monthly data for job vacancies in Australia continues to weaken sequentially
  • Australian HFD on bankruptcies and insolvencies has been weak for some time
  • Risk is that credit metrics of Australian banks remain poor, continuing what we see for many at present

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 16
0

Daily Brief ECM: China Resources Beverage IPO – Volatility Makes Pricing a Bit Tricky and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • China Resources Beverage IPO – Volatility Makes Pricing a Bit Tricky
  • CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights
  • CR Beverage IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Strong Profitability Growth, IPO Valuation Is Cheap
  • Rigaku IPO: Forecasts and Valuation
  • Rubicon Research Pre-IPO – Robust Product Development Pipeline Driving Revenue Growth
  • Vikran Engineering Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • NTPC Green Pre-IPO – The Positives – Backed by India’s Largest Power Company

China Resources Beverage IPO – Volatility Makes Pricing a Bit Tricky

By Sumeet Singh

  • China Resources Beverage (CRB HK)  is looking to raise up to US$650m in its Hong Kong IPO. 
  • China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the IPO valuations.

CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

CR Beverage IPO Preview and Valuation Analysis: Strong Profitability Growth, IPO Valuation Is Cheap

By Andrei Zakharov

  • CR Beverage, a pioneer in China’s packaged drinking water industry with a forty years history, sets terms for upcoming IPO in Hong Kong.
  • The IPO is expected to be between HK$13.50 and HK$14.50. At the midpoint of the range, CR Beverage would command a market value of ~HK$33B or ~$4.2B.
  • I view IPO valuation as attractive vs. domestic peers as profitability and gross profit margins improved. UBS, BOCI, CITIC Securities and Bank of America are leading the offering.

Rigaku IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) has opened its books for the IPO, and the IPO will raise $753m purely through the sale of shares by the existing shareholders.
  • Unlike its competitors, Rigaku has a very specialized product portfolio that is entirely focused on X-ray technology which makes the company unique among its competitors. 
  • Our analysis reveals that Rigaku’s IPO is attractively priced compared to its competitors and there is more than 15-20% upside to the indicative IPO price range.

Rubicon Research Pre-IPO – Robust Product Development Pipeline Driving Revenue Growth

By Akshat Shah

  • Rubicon Research Limited (1453591D IN) is looking to raise about US$130m in its India IPO.
  • It is a pharmaceutical formulations company with an increasing portfolio of specialty products and drug-device combination products targeting regulated markets, particularly, the United States.
  • In this note, we talk about the company’s historical performance.

Vikran Engineering Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Vikran Engineering Limited (1635154D IN) is planning to raise about US$119m through its upcoming IPO in India. The lead bookrunners for the deal are Pantomath Limited, Systematix Group.
  • Vikran Engineering Limited (VEL) based in Mumbai, operates as an Engineering, Procurement & Construction (EPC) firm, focusing on power, water, and railway infrastructure projects. 
  • VEL plans to allocate its funds towards financing the company’s working capital needs and general corporate purposes.

NTPC Green Pre-IPO – The Positives – Backed by India’s Largest Power Company

By Clarence Chu

  • NTPC Green Energy Ltd (2214556D IN) is looking to raise around US$1.2bn in its upcoming India IPO.
  • NTPC Green Energy Limited (NGEL) is a renewable energy public sector enterprise and a wholly owned subsidiary of NTPC Limited, a Maharatna central public sector enterprise (PSU). 
  • In this note, we will talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 16
0

Daily Brief Event-Driven: Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext Dec 24: US$400mn Expected Inflow for Jiangsu Hoperun and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext Dec 24: US$400mn Expected Inflow for Jiangsu Hoperun
  • Bossini (592 HK): Viva Goods Offer?
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Service Dec 24: US$271mn One-Way; 1x-4x ADV to Trade for Most Names
  • Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24: Some Changes to Exp ADDs/DELs; Large Flow Expectations
  • Let’s Get Real About the Odds of MBK Launching a New Tender for YPP
  • Japan CorpGovReport Details: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Oct24)
  • Takashimaya (8233 JP) Decent Earnings, BIG Buyback (Odd Register Dynamics)
  • Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): Hanwha’s Final Offer Could Get the Deal Done
  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines
  • CSI 500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 11% Turnover; US$5bn Round-Trip Trade

Quiddity Leaderboard ChiNext Dec 24: US$400mn Expected Inflow for Jiangsu Hoperun

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The ChiNext Index represents the performance of the 100 largest and most liquid A-share stocks listed on the ChiNext Market of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
  • The ChiNext 50 index is a subset of the ChiNext Index and it consists of the top 50 names in the ChiNext index with the highest daily average turnover.
  • In this insight, we have presented our updated rankings for Potential ADDs and DELs for the upcoming index rebal event in December 2024.

Bossini (592 HK): Viva Goods Offer?

By David Blennerhassett

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI Medical Service Dec 24: US$271mn One-Way; 1x-4x ADV to Trade for Most Names

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI Medical Service represents the top 50 largest and most-liquid stocks involved in medical devices, medical care, medical informatization and other medical theme from the Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing Exchanges.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
  • We expect up to five ADDs and five DELs for the CSI Medical Service index during this index rebal event based on the latest available data.

Quiddity Leaderboard CSI 300/​​500 Dec 24: Some Changes to Exp ADDs/DELs; Large Flow Expectations

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • CSI 300 represents the 300 largest stocks by market cap and liquidity from the Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchanges. CSI 500 is the next 500.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs leading the race for the semiannual index rebal event in December 2024.
  • We currently expect 16 ADDs/DELs for CSI 300 and 50 ADDs/DELs for CSI 500. Some of these names are different from what we had in our September 2024 insight.

Let’s Get Real About the Odds of MBK Launching a New Tender for YPP

By Sanghyun Park

  • Since MBK’s tender started, institutional trading has been light, leaving local retail investors in control. Choi’s 35% ceiling poses real proration risk for traders eyeing the action.
  • MBK might not have wanted YPP; they could just be using it as bait to not only drain Choi’s cash but also to put them in a tight financial spot.
  • MBK is set to focus on snapping up Korea Zinc shares in the open market to increase their stake and thwart any buyback tender offers.

Japan CorpGovReport Details: TSE “Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” Details (Oct24)

By Travis Lundy

  • TSE-Listed companies are asked to file “Management Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price” awareness reports/policies. Many have. Some are still working on it. And policies change, and CGR reports are updated.
  • Our tools show every report, links to every document, and now a new diff file tool. input a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports. We hope it helps.
  • This tool is designed to be a shelf reference. We update it once a month, and every CorpGovReport and new “Management Conscious” report updated since a CGR update is here.

Takashimaya (8233 JP) Decent Earnings, BIG Buyback (Odd Register Dynamics)

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Takashimaya (8233 JP) reported Q2 earnings, a dividend hike, upward revisions to the FY26 MTMP, and a decent-sized buyback to raise leverage levels and ROE.
  • The company is yen-sensitive both in overseas retail and domestic department stores on inbound traffic. One could imagine future issues. 
  • The register looks like it is quite open. It is not. That is worth considering now and in future.

Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): Hanwha’s Final Offer Could Get the Deal Done

By Arun George

  • Dyna Mac Holdings (DMHL SP) disclosed a revised conditional offer from Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) and Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) at S$0.67, an 11.7% premium to the initial S$0.60 offer.
  • The Estate (largest shareholder) stated that the previous S$0.60 offer was not compelling. The final offer addresses most of the Estate’s valuation concerns.
  • The Estate’s view and IFA opinion in the circular (despatched by 23 October) will be crucial to the acceptance rate. They are likely to support the final offer. 

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) IPO: Index Inclusion Possibility & Timelines

By Brian Freitas

  • Horizon Robotics (1395186D CH) is offering 1.355bn shares in its IPO at a price range of HK$3.73-3.99/share. With the overallotment option, the IPO could raise up to HK$6.2bn (US$801m).
  • Cornerstone investors will take up a third of the offer. Those shares will be locked up for 6 months and will significantly reduce the free float of the stock.
  • Index inclusions will commence with the HSCI in March 2025 – however, as a stock with Weighted Voting Rights, inclusion in Southbound Stock Connect will only take place in May.

CSI 500 Index Rebalance Preview: 50 Changes; 11% Turnover; US$5bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • With 95% of the review period now complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index at the close on 13 December.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 11% at the rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY17.56bn (US$2.48bn). The Information Technology and HealthCare sectors gain at the expense of Industrials.
  • After drifting lower over the last couple of months, the forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes over the last couple of weeks. There should be more to go here.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 16
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Vanke and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Reliance Industries, West China Cement

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Reliance Industries, West China Cement

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 16
0

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Holding Up; ASE & CHT See Sharp Drops and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Holding Up; ASE & CHT See Sharp Drops
  • Mongolia Mining 975 HK: Q3 FY24 Operational Update, Gold Project Progressing Well
  • Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK): Volumes Rise as Demand Revival Cycle On; US to Be the Key Market
  • How Seven Eleven and Other Conbinis Are Sitting on a Retail Media Goldmine
  • Smartphone Growth Is Slowing Down to +4% YoY in 3Q. Mediatek Had a Good Rally, Time to Take a Break
  • Namaste India 🙏 | Catching up with Fashion
  • Money Forward (3994) | Q3 Priced In; Look for Pull-Back
  • China Everbright Env (257 HK): An Underappreciated Beneficiary
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (16-Oct-2024): Taiwan seeks US defense contracts with efficiency.
  • LSB Industries, Inc. – WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Holding Up; ASE & CHT See Sharp Drops

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +15.6% Premium; Relatively Aggressive Trade is to Long Premium
  • ASE: -3.0% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Premium
  • CHT: -2.8% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Premium

Mongolia Mining 975 HK: Q3 FY24 Operational Update, Gold Project Progressing Well

By Sameer Taneja

  • Mongolian Mining (975 HK) released its quarterly production update. While production remained flat QoQ, destocking led to 16.3% YoY sales growth in coal. 
  • The resources at the gold mine (476,000 oz) did not change, but construction of the plant was 55% complete compared to 30% a quarter ago in June. 
  • Trading at 5.6 PE, with opportunities for growth and future dividend payments due to repayment of the perpetual, this is an exciting idea to explore. 

Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK): Volumes Rise as Demand Revival Cycle On; US to Be the Key Market

By Tina Banerjee

  • Top Glove Corp (TOPG MK) achieved 75% YoY and 31% QoQ revenue growth in 4QFY24, driven by higher volume and relatively stable selling price, with net loss narrowing down further.
  • Considering the current demand and supply condition, Top Glove expects the ASP to further increase. The company aims to recover its EBITDA margin to pre-pandemic levels of 15% by FY26.
  • Import alert and expected tariff increase on Chinese manufacturers, may help shift the focus from China to Malaysia, as the preferred sourcing destination, thereby helping Top Glove.

How Seven Eleven and Other Conbinis Are Sitting on a Retail Media Goldmine

By Michael Causton

  • Just as they did before, Japanese convenience stores are taking a US idea and making it Japanese, in this case retail media, which looks set to be huge in Japan.
  • Seven & I believes it will be a ¥3 trillion business and Familymart, which is leading in this new profit machine, expects ¥5 billion in media income in 3 years.
  • The options for highly personalised targeting and behavioural analysis will transform brand advertising and marketing – but even more the bottom line of convenience stores.

Smartphone Growth Is Slowing Down to +4% YoY in 3Q. Mediatek Had a Good Rally, Time to Take a Break

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Smartphones units sold in 3Q24 increased by +4% YoY. That’s a slowdown from +7% YoY in 1H24.
  • Growth comes from low-price Emerging Markets demand. But the Premium segment sees increasing ASP with AI-enabled phones.  
  • Hence for Mediatek and Qualcomm, the investment thesis rests on increasing ASP as AI is propagating – not volume growth. MTK had a nice rally, time to take a breather. 

Namaste India 🙏 | Catching up with Fashion

By Pranav Bhavsar

Money Forward (3994) | Q3 Priced In; Look for Pull-Back

By Mark Chadwick

  • In Q3, Money Forward demonstrated continued strong performance, with consolidated net sales posting 31% growth year-on-year to ¥9.81 billion
  • EBITDA for the cumulative nine months stands at ¥1.48 billion, comfortably within the company’s full year guidance range of ¥1-3 billion.
  • We now see a very modest 2% upside to our target price of ¥6,440, based on an 8x forward revenue multiple. 

China Everbright Env (257 HK): An Underappreciated Beneficiary

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Everbright Environment (257 HK) will benefit immensely from the lower debt burden of local governments as the central government rolls out more fiscal support measures.
  • We anticipate an acceleration in receivable collection to improve its cash flow while the new projects pipeline may speed up. Its FCF has positively turned around in 1H24.
  • Despite recent outperformance, it remains a laggard since 2022. Still, it trades on an undemanding 5.5x PER and an appealing 6.3% yield on a higher dividend payout. 

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (16-Oct-2024): Taiwan seeks US defense contracts with efficiency.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Taiwan’s defense sector offers competitive advantage with better, faster, and cheaper solutions for securing US contracts.
  • Growing tech sector demands secure, local storage solutions due to high energy usage.
  • Google boosts investments in Asia-Pacific countries to expand its presence and tap into growing markets in the region.

LSB Industries, Inc. – WTR Small-Cap Spotlight Recap

By Water Tower Research

  • LSB currently operates three downstream integrated ammonia production facilities.
  • Behrman said key competitive advantages include a cost structure underpinned by access to low-cost US natural gas feedstock, strategic proximity with plants located in three states (OK, AK, and AL), and good logistics with access to waterways, truck, and rail.
  • About half of LSB’s output is geared toward agricultural applications (fertilizers), while the remaining is geared toward various industrial applications.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 16
0

Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Crisp: Seller. Coinbase Seller and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Crisp: Seller. Coinbase Seller
  • Sweet Sweet Liquidity

Crypto Crisp: Seller. Coinbase Seller

By Mads Eberhardt

  • The crypto market showed some encouraging signs over the weekend, despite Coinbase showing a significant discount on its Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.
  • This suggests that Coinbase users are net sellers, possibly due to concerns about the 69,330 bitcoins seized by the U.S. government in connection with the Silk Road case.
  • However, we believe it is very unlikely that the government will liquidate these bitcoins anytime soon.

Sweet Sweet Liquidity

By Etherbridge

  • September showed positive returns, bucking the seasonal negative returns we have seen in previous years.
  • BTCUSD (6.79%), ETHUSD (2.99%), SOLUSD (10.51%) and OTHERS index (15.86%) were green across the board.
  • The odds of an explosive expansionary phase significantly increased in September.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free


Oct 16
0

Daily Brief Macro: GEM Funds Underperform in Q3. and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • GEM Funds Underperform in Q3.
  • The Week at a Glance: No Bazooka from China (Yet) – Over to You, ECB
  • Details to Follow for China Fiscal Stimulus
  • Tactical Trading – JPY Weakness Has Likely Run Its Course for Now
  • US Rig Count Rises After Falling for Three Consecutive Weeks
  • [IO Options Weekly 2024/41] IO IV Surges and Put Activity Rebounds Following Golden Week
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/41] Henry Hub Extends Decline as Hurricane Milton Destroys Demand
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/41] China’s Weakness Poses Risk to WTI’s Recent Two-Week Gains
  • Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices // CTA Update
  • UK Cycle Tightens As Policy Eases

GEM Funds Underperform in Q3.

By Steven Holden

  • Active EM Funds delivered an average return of +6.85% in Q3, underperforming the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF by 0.83%, with 38.8% of funds beating the index.
  • Morgan Stanley Developing Opportunity and Aikya Emerging Markets topped the performance charts for the quarter.
  • Underweights in Alibaba Group Holding and Meituan, and overweights in SK Hynix and cash holdings hurt performance.

The Week at a Glance: No Bazooka from China (Yet) – Over to You, ECB

By Andreas Steno

  • The recent Chinese fiscal briefing was underwhelming, as expected.
  • China continues to focus on supply-side measures, which remain ineffective in addressing the pressing need for increased demand.
  • Instead of stimulating consumption across the economy, China is attempting to incentivize asset demand and reshuffle credit profiles—approaches unlikely to produce meaningful results.

Details to Follow for China Fiscal Stimulus

By Alex Ng

  • Details of the extra central government spending/scaled up local authority purchases of unsold complete homes for affordable housing should be seen late October/early November from the National People Congress.  
  • We estimate Yuan1.5-2.0trn of extra spending, which leads us to increase the 2025 GDP forecast to 4.5% from 4.0% — fiscal impact on 2024 will likely be very small.
  • The more active government policy stance, also reduces the risk of a harder landing (circa 3%) to 10-15% from 20-25% in 2025.  

Tactical Trading – JPY Weakness Has Likely Run Its Course for Now

By Rikki Malik

  • With US bonds oversold, we expect the Japanese Yen to  strengthen
  • Supplementary Budget from the LDP as new cabinet’s approval rating drops
  • The broad Japanese indices will struggle here as this plays out

US Rig Count Rises After Falling for Three Consecutive Weeks

By Suhas Reddy

  • The US oil and gas rig count rose by one to 586 for the week ending 11/Oct, marking an increase after falling for three consecutive weeks.
  • The US oil rig count increased by two to 481. Meanwhile, gas rigs decreased by one to 101, after gaining six rigs over the last two weeks.
  • For the week ending 11/Oct, US energy producers added six rigs in Texas and one in Oklahoma but cut two each in Pennsylvania, Louisiana, and New Mexico.

[IO Options Weekly 2024/41] IO IV Surges and Put Activity Rebounds Following Golden Week

By Pranay Yadav

  • SGX IO Futures declined by $1.94/ton over the week, closing at $106.21/ton on October 11th, with prices ranging between $103.05 and $115/ton.
  • DCE premium over SGX surged to 10% on 8/Oct as DCE reopened after Golden Week, but the spread narrowed to 4.8% by 11/Oct. SGX underperformed DCE early in the week.
  • Weekly options volume surged 188%, dominated by puts with a 1.04 put/call ratio, concentrated on November expiries and key strikes at 100 and 105.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/41] Henry Hub Extends Decline as Hurricane Milton Destroys Demand

By Suhas Reddy

  • US natural gas prices fell 7.8% for the week ending 11/Oct, marking a second straight weekly decline as Hurricane Milton reduced electricity demand, driving down Henry Hub prices.
  • Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.69 (11/Oct) from 0.98 the previous week as put volumes fell by 27.3% WoW, while call volumes rose by 2.8%.
  • Put OI increased for contracts expiring in November and April while call OI rose for expiries in December, January, February, and March.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/41] China’s Weakness Poses Risk to WTI’s Recent Two-Week Gains

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures rose by 1.6% for the week ending 11/Oct, as the simmering tensions in the Middle East outweighed persistent demand concerns.
  • WTI options Put/Call volume ratio fell to 0.52 from 0.64 (04/Oct) as put volume dropped by 50.9% WoW while call volume fell by 39.8%.
  • WTI OI PCR was unchanged at 0.76 compared to last week. Call OI rose by 5.7% WoW, while put OI grew by 5.8%.

Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices // CTA Update

By The Commodity Report

  • CTA Update Last week, the research division of UBS shared an update on the positioning of CTAs.
  • Contrarian’ trades: bullish Energy, Cattle Feeder, Lme Lead and Lme Nickel, bearish Coffee, Cocoa, Platinum and Palladium
  • Go with momentum’ trades: bullish Lme Tin, Copper, Gold and Lean Hogs, bearish Soybean, Soybean Meal, Wheat and Corn Hurricane Milton and Orange Juice Prices Orange juice futures rose as Hurricane Milton approached Florida throughout the week.

UK Cycle Tightens As Policy Eases

By Phil Rush

  • UK unemployment dropped by another 16bps in August to 4.0%, sustaining a 0.2pp fall on last year. Short-term unemployment looks even tighter as demand trends resiliently.
  • Resurgent employment and hours worked hawkishly drive the cyclical tightening while redundancies remain low and weekly vacancies trend slightly higher.
  • Slowing wage growth provides an excuse for the BoE to cut again in November but not to accelerate easing nor extend it far. A policy reversal may be needed in 2025.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars
Sign Up for Free