Category

Daily Briefs

Apr 30
0

Daily Brief Singapore: ISDN Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • 10 in 10 with ISDN Holdings – Positioned for Long-Term Growth with Strategic Expansion and Diversification

10 in 10 with ISDN Holdings – Positioned for Long-Term Growth with Strategic Expansion and Diversification

By Geoff Howie

  • ISDN’s core Industrial Automation segment contributes 94% of revenue, with China accounting for 71% of IA revenue.
  • Renewable Energy revenue doubled in 1H2024 due to successful commercialisation of three mini-hydropower plants in Indonesia.
  • ISDN maintains a dividend policy of distributing 25% of net profit attributable to shareholders as dividends.

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Apr 30
0

Daily Brief Indonesia: Cisarua Mountain Dairy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Assuringly Diverse Protein Provider

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) – Assuringly Diverse Protein Provider

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) booked a strong start to the year, with sales growing +12% YoY, but dairy was down while premium foods drove higher revenues.  
  • The company continues to drive growth through general trade and Miss Cimory, with plans to continue increasing its reach through more affordable products in both dairy and premium consumer foods.
  • Cisarua Mountain Dairy‘s strategy to shift the emphasis toward home consumption for consumer foods and an increasing emphasis on affordable products will help to underpin long-term sustainable growth. Valuations attractive. 

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Apr 30
0

Daily Brief India: Adani Green Energy, Syngene International Ltd, Ultratech Cement and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
  • Why Syngene International’s FY26 Will Be a Transition Year?
  • Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Nickel Industries
  • The US equity market rebounded overnight to erase earlier losses in the day. The S&P 500 was up for a fifth straight day (its longest streak since November 2024), albeit at just 0.1%.
  • In the US, the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index plunged to negative 35.8 (-14.1 e / -16.3 p) in March, reaching its lowest level since May 2020. The survey showed executives describing the situation as “chaos” and “insanity”.

Why Syngene International’s FY26 Will Be a Transition Year?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Syngene International Ltd (SYNG IN) guided for mid-single digit revenue growth and lower EBITDA margins in FY26, following a mixed performance in FY25.
  • The moderated outlook is primarily due to the initial operational costs and depreciation from the new US biologics facility and a normalization of inventory levels for a key client.
  • Focus shifts to the successful integration and ramp-up of new capacities and the potential for underlying growth in key segments to materialize beyond the transient FY26.

Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech

By Rahul Jain

  • FY25 EBITDA growth was primarily volume-driven, with EBITDA/ton declining to Rs988 due to flat realizations and initial dilution from acquisitions.
  •  UltraTech is investing Rs1,800 crore to enter the cables and wires segment, targeting December 2026 commissioning and leveraging its existing retail and B2B networks.
  • At Rs12,000 per share, the stock trades at 51–53x FY26E EPS, supported by expectations of sustained volume growth and operational efficiency gains.

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Apr 30
0

Daily Brief United States: NVIDIA Corp, Gold, Base Oil, BP , Aspen Insurance Holdings, Natural Gas, American Integrity Insurance Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)
  • Gold (GOLD COMDTY) Outlook And Profit Targets
  • Sentiment Signal in Gold
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April
  • [Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results
  • Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Apollo Backed Company Sets Terms; Seeking $2.9b Valuation
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook
  • American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Florida Based Insurance Company Sets Terms for IPO
  • Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 April

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Apparently, on news of this new Huawei chip in WSJ, Nvidia’s stock decline -2% yesterday. That’s strange – not new news, the real issue is new US export license requirements.
  • Nvidia’s problem is not Huawei, but US restrictions on selling GPU to China. Nvidia announced writing off US$5.5bn on 9 April 2025 (for H20). AMD estimates US$800m (for MI308).
  • Assume that Nvidia and AMD will not sell any AI chips to China. Same for HBM memory.

Gold (GOLD COMDTY) Outlook And Profit Targets

By Nico Rosti

  • Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been in an a prolonged uptrend for several weeks, 1-week pullbacks have been buy-the-dips opportunities so far.
  • Last week Gold closed down, a modest 1-week pullback, it may be an opportunity to buy but we want to show you where is the ideal support zone to buy.
  • In this insight we will also identify also profit targets, in case gold keeps rallying from here, so that you know how far the rally can go.

Sentiment Signal in Gold

By The Commodity Report

  • This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched – which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.
  • Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of March
  • Another interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April

By Iain Pocock

  • US domestic Group I brightstock price outperforms lighter grades and Group II prices.
  • US export brightstock prices significantly lag brightstock prices in Europe and Asia.
  • Widening price-discount reflects signs of increasingly diverging supply-demand fundamentals between US and Europe and Asia.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices stays higher at end-April 2025 than a month earlier.
  • Higher margins coincide with seasonal rise in demand and plant maintenance work.
  • Higher margins follow sharp fall in crude oil prices.

[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

By Suhas Reddy

  • BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.
  • BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.
  • The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.

Aspen Insurance Holdings Limited (AHL): Apollo Backed Company Sets Terms; Seeking $2.9b Valuation

By IPO Boutique

  • A total of 11.0mm shares are being offered with the entirety being offloaded by the sponsor, Apollo Global Securities.
  • This company was acquired by private-equity titan Apollo Global in a transaction announced in August 2018 and closing in February 2019.
  • For the three months ended March 31, 2025, Aspen Insurance had gross written premiums of $1.287b vs. $1.231b in the same period in 2024 for an increase of 4.5%.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 25/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 9.5% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
  • For the week ending 18/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 28/Apr compared to 0.93 on 17/Apr. Call OI decreased by 18.5%, while put OI dropped by 16.1%.

American Integrity Insurance Group (AII): Florida Based Insurance Company Sets Terms for IPO

By IPO Boutique

  • American Integrity Insurance Group (AII US) was one of two insurance companies to set terms for an IPO on Tuesday morning for a debut next week.
  • Gross premiums written increased 43.9% to $212.2 million for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to $147.5 million for the three months ended March 31, 2024. 
  • The underwriting lineup on this sector, led by Keefe Bruyette & Woods, has a strong track record of pricing and placing transactions in this sector.

Americas/EMEA base oils supply outlook: Week of 28 April

By Iain Pocock

  • US base oils price premium to VGO/heating oil prices holds steadier after surging in H1 April 2025.
  • Firmer margins and steady prices coincide with signs of slowdown in shipments to markets like West Africa in April 2025.
  • Firmer margins and steadier prices coincide with steadier US Group II price discount to imported cargo prices in markets like India.

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Apr 30
0

Daily Brief China: Horizon Robotics, Dickson Concepts Intl, Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim, Soundwill Holdings, Sichuan Biokin Pharmaceutical Co Ltd, BYD, Green Tea Group, ICBC (H), Amara Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups
  • Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better
  • Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Sir Poon’s Scheme Offer Below Net Cash
  • Hainan Drinda New Energy (A/H IPO) – Business Was Acquired for 1/3rd the Price, Three Years Ago
  • Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): 23rd May Vote On Founder’s Offer
  • Sichuan Biokin A/H Listing: Good Time for Listing
  • BYD (1211 HK): Top Trades Reflect Bearish Bias in HKEX Options Trading Strategies
  • Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • ICBC:  Signs of a Turnaround in Fund Positioning
  • Asia Real Estate Tracker (29-Apr-2025): Link Points Tokyo expansion with Nuveen executive hire

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Free float is expected to increase from 10% to 70% on 24 April for Global-F and on 24 October for Global-M. The delayed increase is due to undisclosed shareholders.
  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global all-world in June 2025 following the 6-month lock-up expiry of most shareholders.
  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global standard in February 2026 following the 12-month lock-up expiry of undisclosed shareholders.

Poon’s Underpriced Takeover. Minorities Deserve Better

By David Blennerhassett

  • Dickson Concepts (113 HK) (DC)’s Chairman, Dickson Poon (& relatives), holding 61.98%, have tabled an Offer by way of a Scheme for shares not held, at HK$7.20/share (best & final).
  • That compares to DC’s net cash (as at 30 Sept 2024) of HK$7.44/share. Plus financial assets comprise an additional ~HK$2.16/share. 
  • The IFA will cite liquidity and DC’s historical discount to NAV, and opine “reasonable”, and perhaps even “fair”. It is neither. Minorities should vote this down. But probably won’t …

Dickson Concepts (113 HK): Sir Poon’s Scheme Offer Below Net Cash

By Arun George

  • Dickson Concepts Intl (113 HK) disclosed a Bermuda scheme offer from the controlling shareholder (Sir Poon) at HK$7.20, a 50.6% premium to the last close price.  
  • The offer is final. While the offer represents an all-time high and is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is below net cash. 
  • No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake, and retail seems supportive (lowering the risk of the headcount test). The offer, while light, will likely succeed.  

Hainan Drinda New Energy (A/H IPO) – Business Was Acquired for 1/3rd the Price, Three Years Ago

By Sumeet Singh

  • Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim (002865 CH) plans to raise up to US$234m via its A/H listing.
  • HDNET is a specialized manufacturer of PV cells which are used in making PV modules.
  • In this note, we look at the company’s recent performance and other deal dynamics, as well as valuations.

Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): 23rd May Vote On Founder’s Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 7th March, small-cap property developer Soundwill (878 HK) announced an Offer from Grace Foo (ED) and her family, controlling 74.97% of shares out, by way of a Scheme.
  • The Offer Price of  $8.50/share, including a $1.00/share dividend, was a 62.84% premium to undisturbed. But a 87.66% discount to the (then) most recent NAV. Terms were final.
  • The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 23rd May, and payment on or before the 11th June. The IFA (Altus Capital) says “fair & reasonable”.

Sichuan Biokin A/H Listing: Good Time for Listing

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • Sichuan Biokin reported 2024 results, with a large chunk of revenue from its product licensing to BMS.
  • We analyzed its key products’ current clinical trials and upcoming milestones. We also look at peer performance.
  • Overall, we are of the view that many factors bode well for Biokin’s H-share listing

BYD (1211 HK): Top Trades Reflect Bearish Bias in HKEX Options Trading Strategies

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Over the past five trading days, BYD (1211 HK) multi-leg option strategies showcased a variety of approaches. Strategy highlights are provided.
  • Popular Strategies: Call/Put Spreads account for 88% of all strategies, with a bias towards bearish views.
  • Lottery Trades: a recent trend, observed in other stocks as well, manifests itself in BYD (1211 HK). A lotter trade bets on a low probability event with a high payout. 

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The decline in Green Tea’s performance in 2024 cannot be solely attributed to external factors such as economic downturn and the decline in consumption. There are deeper reasons behind it. 
  • The growth is mainly contributed by delivery service. However, commission fee is high and average spending per order is lower than dine-in services.So delivery service has limited contribution to profits.
  • The aggressive expansion of restaurants may further dilute the performance of individual restaurant. We shared our three-year forecast.Valuation of Green Tea could be lower than Xiaocaiyuan and the industry average

ICBC:  Signs of a Turnaround in Fund Positioning

By Steven Holden

  • Consistent declines in fund ownership in ICBC finally hit a floor.
  • Over the past six-months, 8 new positions — led by Goldman Sachs and Heptagon — have outpaced 3 closures, with 29 buyers versus 18 sellers.
  • ICBC is the 6th most widely owned stock in the China & HK Financials sector, ahead of Bank Of China Ltd but behind China Merchants and China Construction Bank.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (29-Apr-2025): Link Points Tokyo expansion with Nuveen executive hire

By Asia Real Estate Tracker

  • Link has appointed a former Nuveen executive to lead its expansion into Japan, signaling the company’s commitment to growing its presence in the region.
  • Amara Chairman is spearheading a $392 million bid to privatize a Singapore hotel group, demonstrating a growing trend of investments in the hospitality industry.
  • ANREV reports a significant decline of over 50% in global real estate capital raising from its peak in 2022, highlighting challenges in the current market environment.

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Apr 30
0

Daily Brief Japan: Fujitsu General, Aeon Co Ltd, Matsui Securities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Fujitsu General (6755) – Deal Starts Early, Trades Tight – Done Deal
  • Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look
  • Matsui Securities (8628 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

Fujitsu General (6755) – Deal Starts Early, Trades Tight – Done Deal

By Travis Lundy

  • The Paloma-Rheem Tender Offer for Fujitsu General (6755 JP) was expected to start in early July but is starting 10 weeks earlier. Big win for arbs. 
  • This was going to be a done deal. It didn’t trade rich to terms and it’s tough to see why activists would push when they haven’t pushed for years.
  • The deal is now trading tight. Long arbs should probably re-allocate. Those hiding their beta here should hide their beta elsewhere.

Asian Equities: Overvalued, Over-Leveraged, Low Growth – a Different Look

By Manishi Raychaudhuri

  • We identified overvalued, over-leveraged, low growth stocks on EPS growth, high PEG, low ROE, high P/BV, high leverage.  Clients opined that EBITDA is more stable earnings parameter for such stocks.
  • Based on clients’ feedback we now screen the stocks using EBITDA growth as the earnings growth parameter and EV as the corresponding valuation parameter.
  • Our screen yields 30 stocks – 20 from Japan (largely property/REIT) and 10 from HK/China. 7 stocks are common to the EPS-PE and EBITDA-EV lists – mostly from Japanese property.

Matsui Securities (8628 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Net operating revenue was JPY8.8bn, a decrease of 11.4% YoY and 1.6% QoQ, with operating profit at JPY3.2bn.
  • Total commissions were JPY4.8bn, down 23.8% YoY but up 3.6% QoQ; brokerage commissions were JPY4.5bn.
  • SG&A expenses totaled JPY5.7bn, increasing 1.1% YoY and 5.2% QoQ, with transaction-related expenses at JPY1.9bn.

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Apr 30
0

Daily Brief Utilities: Adani Green Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

By Tanvi Arora

  • In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: Adani Green Energy, Nickel Industries
  • The US equity market rebounded overnight to erase earlier losses in the day. The S&P 500 was up for a fifth straight day (its longest streak since November 2024), albeit at just 0.1%.
  • In the US, the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index plunged to negative 35.8 (-14.1 e / -16.3 p) in March, reaching its lowest level since May 2020. The survey showed executives describing the situation as “chaos” and “insanity”.

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Apr 30
0

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Horizon Robotics, Samsung SDI, NVIDIA Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Samsung Electronics, United Microelectronics Corp, Perfect , Nanya Technology, Novonix , Krafton and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups
  • Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity
  • Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)
  • Huawei New AI Processor Ascend 910C and the Long History Behind It (Part 1)
  • Samsung Electronics:  Global Funds Hit Rock Bottom
  • United Microelectronics:  Heavy Exodus
  • PERF: Perfect Corp. Reports a Solid Quarter
  • Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Signals Resilient AI Demand Ahead; Nanya More Exposed to Global Downturn
  • NVX: CEO Transition Expected to be Smooth
  • Krafton: Acquisition of Controlling Stake in Neptune from Kakao Games

Horizon Robotics (9660 HK): Global Index Inclusion After April & October Lock-Ups

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Free float is expected to increase from 10% to 70% on 24 April for Global-F and on 24 October for Global-M. The delayed increase is due to undisclosed shareholders.
  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global all-world in June 2025 following the 6-month lock-up expiry of most shareholders.
  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) is forecasted to be added to global standard in February 2026 following the 12-month lock-up expiry of undisclosed shareholders.

Samsung SDI Rights Trade Period & Short Ban: Quick Clarity

By Sanghyun Park

  • Samsung SDI kept the trading window open until May 12, not May 9 — so stock rights will trade for a total of six sessions.
  • If all shorts are closed by May 16, we can still subscribe. Spot hedging isn’t allowed, but outright shorts for pricing plays are fine.
  • Entry cost is effectively capped at 146,200 won, and it’s still very unlikely the final price exceeds that, so using it as the rights entry cap still makes sense.

Is Huawei New AI Chip Is Bad for Nvidia? New US Export Licensing Is the Real Issue (Part 2)

By Nicolas Baratte

  • Apparently, on news of this new Huawei chip in WSJ, Nvidia’s stock decline -2% yesterday. That’s strange – not new news, the real issue is new US export license requirements.
  • Nvidia’s problem is not Huawei, but US restrictions on selling GPU to China. Nvidia announced writing off US$5.5bn on 9 April 2025 (for H20). AMD estimates US$800m (for MI308).
  • Assume that Nvidia and AMD will not sell any AI chips to China. Same for HBM memory.

Huawei New AI Processor Ascend 910C and the Long History Behind It (Part 1)

By Nicolas Baratte

  • China was ahead of the US in AI semiconductor and applications in 2015-20. Huawei had a complete AI processor and software platform. Losing access to TSMC froze Huawei’s progress.
  • Most likely, Huawei new AI processor Ascend 910C is made by SMIC on 6nm. Power Efficiency of Ascend 910C is poor versus the latest Nvidia GPU, but similar to N-2.
  • Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK) 7-6nm and access to HBM memory are major limiting factor to the chip volumes and performance.

Samsung Electronics:  Global Funds Hit Rock Bottom

By Steven Holden

  • Global equity fund ownership in Samsung Electronics has dropped to the bottom of its 10-year range.
  • The percentage of global funds invested has fallen from 32.6% to 23.5% over the past 12-months.
  • Key Growth investors from Schroders to Templeton exit the stock, leaving an investor base largely comprised of Value oriented funds.

United Microelectronics:  Heavy Exodus

By Steven Holden

  • Collapse in EM fund positioning as ownership levels approach record lows.
  • Over the past six months, there has been a heavy sell-side bias, with Fisher, BNP, and Quilter among those exiting the stock.  
  • UMC falls to the 13th most widely owned company in the Semiconductor sector.

PERF: Perfect Corp. Reports a Solid Quarter

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Perfect Corp. provides an AI and machine learning based B2B SaaS platform for virtual try on and marketing of beauty and fashion products as well as seven mobile apps sold B2C for makeup suggestions, try-on, tutorials, photo and video editing, Gen AI creation and editing and AI Chat.
  • It is expanding its offering to new verticals and has strong IP as well as the largest database for AI training in the industry.
  • This year it bought the leading fashion tryon provider to expand to that vertical.

Memory Monitor: SK Hynix Signals Resilient AI Demand Ahead; Nanya More Exposed to Global Downturn

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • SK Hynix expects continued AI/server memory strength despite global uncertainty — Expects 2025E HBM revenue to double YoY.
  • PC and smartphone memory demand experienced moderate recovery — Supported by China stimulus and AI-featured product cycles.
  • Continue to view SK Hynix shares in more favorable position vs. Nana Tech shares — Especially in a scenario of global economic weakness.

NVX: CEO Transition Expected to be Smooth

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Zacks Small-Cap Research Note for Novonix Ltd (NVX)

Krafton: Acquisition of Controlling Stake in Neptune from Kakao Games

By Douglas Kim

  • On 29 April, Krafton announced that it plans to acquire a 39.37% controlling stake in Neptune Company from Kakao Games for 165 billion won ($114.9 million).
  • Prior to this deal, Krafton owned a 3.2% stake in Neptune. After this deal is completed, Krafton will own a 42.53% stake (19.86 million shares) of Neptune.
  • Krafton reported excellent results in 1Q 2025. The company beat its sales, operating profit, and net profit by 10.1%, 18.3%, and 13.8%, respectively in 1Q 2025. 

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Apr 30
0

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Gold, John Wood, Base Oil, Iron Ore, Ultratech Cement, Natural Gas, BP , Arrow Exploration Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Gold (GOLD COMDTY) Outlook And Profit Targets
  • Crude Realities: Risk and Reward in the Wood Group Offer
  • Sentiment Signal in Gold
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April
  • [IO Fundamentals 2025/17] Stimulus Buzz Fuels Recovery and IO Inventories Expand
  • Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook
  • [Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results
  • Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Second Drilling Rig to Be Mobilized in May

Gold (GOLD COMDTY) Outlook And Profit Targets

By Nico Rosti

  • Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been in an a prolonged uptrend for several weeks, 1-week pullbacks have been buy-the-dips opportunities so far.
  • Last week Gold closed down, a modest 1-week pullback, it may be an opportunity to buy but we want to show you where is the ideal support zone to buy.
  • In this insight we will also identify also profit targets, in case gold keeps rallying from here, so that you know how far the rally can go.

Crude Realities: Risk and Reward in the Wood Group Offer

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Sidara’s proposal, Board support, and advanced due diligence underpin a credible path to deal completion, despite market volatility and suspension risks temporarily depressing Wood Group’s trading price.
  • Investors entering at distressed levels around 17.89p enjoy a highly favorable risk-reward skew, with potential upside of 95% against manageable downside risks if the transaction ultimately collapses.
  • Existing holders at 26.1p face a more binary outcome, but strategic intent, historical precedents, and Sidara’s prior investment case suggest maintaining exposure through the critical May 15 decision point.

Sentiment Signal in Gold

By The Commodity Report

  • This chart from Sentiment Trader highlights that also gold stocks are quite stretched – which isn’t a sell signal, as a stretched market can always become more stretched.
  • Note: We’re long the June contract of Gold since mid of March
  • Another interesting thought regarding gold demand going forward: if AI models really become more efficient and less data center usage is needed, demand for gold in tech could be affected as well.

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April

By Iain Pocock

  • US domestic Group I brightstock price outperforms lighter grades and Group II prices.
  • US export brightstock prices significantly lag brightstock prices in Europe and Asia.
  • Widening price-discount reflects signs of increasingly diverging supply-demand fundamentals between US and Europe and Asia.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils price premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices stays higher at end-April 2025 than a month earlier.
  • Higher margins coincide with seasonal rise in demand and plant maintenance work.
  • Higher margins follow sharp fall in crude oil prices.

[IO Fundamentals 2025/17] Stimulus Buzz Fuels Recovery and IO Inventories Expand

By Pranay Yadav

  • PBoC holds the 1-year loan prime rate (LPR) at 3.1% and the 5-year LPR at 3.6%; both historic lows as trade tensions persist. 
  • China’s Politburo vows faster bond issuance, lose monetary policy, and job protection measures to counter persistent economic challenges.
  • Iron ore inventories at Chinese ports increased in late April, ending a three-week decline, signaling softening near-term demand.

Strong Volumes Offset by Declining Margins and Capital Efficiency at UltraTech

By Rahul Jain

  • FY25 EBITDA growth was primarily volume-driven, with EBITDA/ton declining to Rs988 due to flat realizations and initial dilution from acquisitions.
  •  UltraTech is investing Rs1,800 crore to enter the cables and wires segment, targeting December 2026 commissioning and leveraging its existing retail and B2B networks.
  • At Rs12,000 per share, the stock trades at 51–53x FY26E EPS, supported by expectations of sustained volume growth and operational efficiency gains.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2025/17] Henry Hub Extended Losing Streak on Mild Weather Outlook

By Suhas Reddy

  • For the week ending 25/Apr, U.S. natural gas prices fell by 9.5% on the back of warmer weather forecasts and rising production.
  • For the week ending 18/Apr, the EIA reported that U.S. natural gas inventories rose by 88 Bcf, higher than analyst expectations of a 69 Bcf build.
  • Henry Hub OI PCR rose to 0.96 on 28/Apr compared to 0.93 on 17/Apr. Call OI decreased by 18.5%, while put OI dropped by 16.1%.

[Earnings Preview] BP’s Outlook Dims with Lower Hydrocarbon Output and Softer Trading Results

By Suhas Reddy

  • BP’s Q4 revenue and EPS are projected to decline by 7.4% YoY and 43.3%, respectively, due to lower hydrocarbon output, weaker gas marketing, and subdued trading results.
  • BP expects oil production earnings to remain flat sequentially, with refining margins adding USD 100-300 million to Q1 earnings, while oil trading performance is anticipated to remain unchanged.
  • The company expects net debt to increase by USD 4 billion from the previous quarter’s USD 23 billion, citing seasonal inventory builds and timing of payments.

Arrow Exploration Corp. (AIM: AXL): Second Drilling Rig to Be Mobilized in May

By Auctus Advisors

  • 4Q24 net production was 4,738 boe/d.
  • The YE24 cash position had been reported previously and there are no surprises in the remainder of the YE24 balance sheet.
  • The existing rig is being mobilized to Alberta Llanos to drill two new horizontal development wells in 2Q25.

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Apr 30
0

Daily Brief Industrials: Hanwha Aerospace, Hanwha Ocean , Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacifi, ISDN Holdings, Grupo Aeroportuario Cen-Adr, Alfen, Herc Holdings , iPower , Aktor SA Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks
  • Overhang on KDB’s Sell Down of Its 19.5% Stake in Hanwha Ocean
  • GAPB MM – Actinver Research – GAP 1Q25: Solid Results, Beating Estimates (Quick View)
  • 10 in 10 with ISDN Holdings – Positioned for Long-Term Growth with Strategic Expansion and Diversification
  • OMAB US – Actinver Research – OMA 1Q25: Posted better-than-expected Q results (Quick View)
  • What’s News in Amsterdam – 29 April (Alfen | e-commerce (logistics) sector)
  • Herc Holdings: The Mega Project Pipeline Is A Pivotal Growth Lever!
  • IPower, Inc. – Assuming Coverage: Diving into the Puts and Takes of Tariffs; We See a Silver Lining!
  • AKTOR (GROUP) S.A. Common Stock – March 4, 2025

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

By Brian Freitas

  • The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.
  • We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June – both are high probability changes.
  • The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.

Overhang on KDB’s Sell Down of Its 19.5% Stake in Hanwha Ocean

By Douglas Kim

  • Korea Development Bank (KDB) is capitalizing on the huge share price appreciation of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) to sell some of its stake in the company through block deal sales.
  • KDB plans to sell its 19.5% stake in Hanwha Ocean. However, the initial block deal sale will be for about 13 million shares (4.3% of outstanding shares). 
  • Hanwha Ocean’s lofty valuations are difficult to justify. As KDB is getting ready to sell more shares,  this could cause further overhang on its shares over the next 3-6 months. 

GAPB MM – Actinver Research – GAP 1Q25: Solid Results, Beating Estimates (Quick View)

By Actinver

  • Operating Revenues of P$8.4 Bn were driven by solid aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenue performance.
  • Total operating sales growth of 26% YoY was driven by a 41% YoY gain in non-aeronautical revenues, mainly explained by consolidating the cargo and free trade zone business at the Guadalajara airport (GWTC).
  • On the other hand, we highlight that aeronautical revenues (71% of total) increased by 21% YoY, propelled by a 16% increase in the aero-weighted average rate (reflecting GAP’s MDP tariffs approved last year) and a 4% gain in total PAX.

10 in 10 with ISDN Holdings – Positioned for Long-Term Growth with Strategic Expansion and Diversification

By Geoff Howie

  • ISDN’s core Industrial Automation segment contributes 94% of revenue, with China accounting for 71% of IA revenue.
  • Renewable Energy revenue doubled in 1H2024 due to successful commercialisation of three mini-hydropower plants in Indonesia.
  • ISDN maintains a dividend policy of distributing 25% of net profit attributable to shareholders as dividends.

OMAB US – Actinver Research – OMA 1Q25: Posted better-than-expected Q results (Quick View)

By Actinver

  • OMA’s quarterly results were better than expected by the consensus and our estimates.
  • Total EBITDA came in at P$2.4 Bn (+3% above our estimate and +5% above the consensus expectation) with a 16% YoY gain.
  • The EBITDA margin was 74.9%, an implicit 0.3 pp.

What’s News in Amsterdam – 29 April (Alfen | e-commerce (logistics) sector)

By The IDEA!

  • In this edition: • Alfen | strong demand to develop BESS • E-commerce (logistics) sector | UK government reviewing duty-free exemption threshold

Herc Holdings: The Mega Project Pipeline Is A Pivotal Growth Lever!

By Baptista Research

  • Herc Holdings’ latest earnings provide a comprehensive view of the company’s current operational and financial standing.
  • Viewing the data from a neutral perspective, both positive and negative aspects emerge that can inform an investment thesis.
  • On the positive side, Herc Holdings continues to demonstrate resilience and adaptability amidst challenging macroeconomic conditions.

IPower, Inc. – Assuming Coverage: Diving into the Puts and Takes of Tariffs; We See a Silver Lining!

By Water Tower Research

  • We are assuming coverage of iPower (IPW). The company sells consumer products on multiple online marketplaces, but primarily on Amazon (AMZN), where it is both a vendor (i.e., AMZN purchases inventory directly under its “Vendor Central” program and labels it as “Sold by Amazon”, which represents 80- 90% of IPW’s sales to AMZN) as well as a third-party (3P) seller.
  • The company has also started leveraging its AMZN relationship and experience to support other sellers in an initiative called “SuperSuite”, where it reports revenue as a mix of product sales and services.
  • Hydroponics, which was once dominant, is now <10% of sales.

AKTOR (GROUP) S.A. Common Stock – March 4, 2025

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • Aktor Group of Companies is a leading diversified infrastructure conglomerate in Greece with significant and expanding presence across Southeastern Europe.
  • The Company’s shares are listed in the Athens Stock Exchange since 2001.
  • Additionally, Aktor’s share is included in a series of national indices, such as ATHEX_ESG, FTSE, FTSE_IN, HELMSI, FTSEA, ATG (Athens General Composite). 

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