Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Apple , Palantir Technologies , Globalwafers, WeRide Corp, Horizon Robotics, SK Telecom, Wacom Co Ltd, Novatek Microelectronics Corp, Microsoft Corp, Axell Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): Market Consultation to Avoid Reverse Turnover (NVDA/AAPL)
  • Palantir Technolog Inc (PLTR) – Tuesday, May 7, 2024
  • GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Semi Industry Expected to Recover in 2H24, Holding an Bright Outlook in 2025
  • WeRide Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Boasting Partnerships, but Peers Aren’t Too Far Behind
  • Horizon Robotics IPO: High Valuation Is At Risk As NEV Production Forecasts Have Weakened
  • SK Telecom: A Blue-Chip Defensive Stock That Could Outperform KOSPI Amid Market Turmoil
  • Wacom (6727 JP) – Preparing to Transition to a New Stage of Growth
  • Novatek (3034.TT): 3Q24 Guidance Slightly Weak in GM
  • Microsoft in Troubled Waters: Navigating the Post-Outage Storm!
  • Axell Corp (6730 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update


Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): Market Consultation to Avoid Reverse Turnover (NVDA/AAPL)

By Brian Freitas

  • NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) and Apple (AAPL US) switched positions in June setting off huge flows. Those flows could reverse in September if the current index methodology is used.
  • To avoid frequent reverse turnover, S&P DJI have started a market consultation to change the index weighting methodology. We believe feedback will be positive and the proposals will be approved.
  • Apple (AAPL US) will have inflows in September while there will be outflows from Microsoft Corp (MSFT US) and NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Palantir Technolog Inc (PLTR) – Tuesday, May 7, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Palantir Technologies Inc. provides software solutions for government customers in national security and intelligence
  • Facing competition in AI products in the commercial sector, which may affect stock performance
  • Company founded in 2003, known for utilizing technology to extract insights from data for government operations, with significant impact on Western society.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


GlobalWafers (6488.TT): Semi Industry Expected to Recover in 2H24, Holding an Bright Outlook in 2025

By Patrick Liao

  • The 2Q24 revenue was NT$15.3bn, 1.6% QoQ and -14.4% YoY. GM in 2Q24 was 32.3%, -5.8% QQ and -14.3% YoY. OPM in 2Q24 was 22.0%, -16.3% QoQ and -24.1% YoY.
  • The widespread adoption of AI-driven electronic devices, along with the onset of the AI-powered device replacement cycle, is likely driving increased demand for peripheral ICs and sensors. 
  • With inventory levels gradually depleting and downstream customers ramping up production capacity in 2025, the semiconductor industry is expected to recover in 2H24 and maintain an optimistic outlook for 2025.

WeRide Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Boasting Partnerships, but Peers Aren’t Too Far Behind

By Clarence Chu

  • WeRide Corp (WER CH) is looking to raise around US$300m in its upcoming US IPO.
  • WeRide provides autonomous driving products and services from L2 to L4 of driving automation.
  • We had looked at the firm’s past performance in an earlier note. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

Horizon Robotics IPO: High Valuation Is At Risk As NEV Production Forecasts Have Weakened

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Horizon Robotics, a leading provider of ADAS and AD solutions for passenger vehicles, plans to raise up to $500M in Hong Kong IPO.
  • I expect Horizon Robotics will price its IPO below last round valuation of ~$8.7B as revenue growth will slow below 50% y/y in 2024, down from 71% y/y in 2023.
  • The company’s key competitors, including Mobileye and Microchip Technology, revised their revenue guidance downwards for the second half of 2024.

SK Telecom: A Blue-Chip Defensive Stock That Could Outperform KOSPI Amid Market Turmoil

By Douglas Kim

  • Amid recent market turmoil, we believe that SK Telecom could be a solid blue-chip, defensive Korean stock that could outperform the market in the next 6-12 months.
  • SK Telecom reported better than expected profits in 2Q 2024. The company’s sales were 0.5% higher than the consensus and its operating profit was 3.9% higher than the consensus estimates.
  • SK Telecom’s shareholder return policy is to return at least 50% of adjusted profit for the year on a consolidated basis.

Wacom (6727 JP) – Preparing to Transition to a New Stage of Growth

By Astris Advisory Japan

  • Wacom is a technology company specializing in the development of graphic tablets (pen tablet products), pen displays (display products), and related digital interface solutions.
  • Leveraging its high reputation for its branded products, it is expanding in the OEM solutions market.
  • Due to changes in market structure driven by demand shifting towards general-purpose tablets and lengthening replacement cycles, Wacom is focused on improving its sales mix and earnings quality by developing a service-centric growth engine. 

Novatek (3034.TT): 3Q24 Guidance Slightly Weak in GM

By Patrick Liao

  • The 3Q24 revenue is expected 10.5% higher than 2Q24, but the GM/OPG outlook will be 5.1%/3.6% lower because of pricing adjustments and limited NRE sales .  
  • Smartphone’s demand will enter peak season with expected stockpiling for new models. Automotive inventory adjustment is needed due to muted demand.  
  • Dividend payout ratio has remained at 80-85% in recent years, with no major changes expected.

Microsoft in Troubled Waters: Navigating the Post-Outage Storm!

By Baptista Research

  • Microsoft, a technology giant with a market-leading position across various sectors, finds itself at a crossroads.
  • The company has demonstrated remarkable growth, with annual revenue surpassing $245 billion, driven largely by its cloud services and AI-driven innovations.
  • However, recent events have cast a shadow over its future prospects.

Axell Corp (6730 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales decreased to JPY4.1bn (-9.3% YoY), operating profit to JPY528mn (-32.0% YoY), and recurring profit to JPY521mn (-34.3% YoY).
  • Q1 FY03/25 results achieved 62.5% of 1H sales forecast, 88.0% of operating profit, and 86.8% of recurring profit.
  • Sales of products for pachinko and pachislot machines decreased YoY, with graphics LSI sales dropping by 20,000 units.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Greatview Aseptic Packaging, SK Innovation, Gold, Cemex SAB de CV ADR, Iron Ore, Medco Energi, Tethys Oil and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • GA Pack (468 HK): Stalemate Broken as Management Considers a Possible Counteroffer
  • The Unusual Flow Trading Development Caused by SK Innovation’s Appraisal Rights Premium
  • GAPack (468 HK)’s Co-Founders (Almost) Walk The Walk
  • Metals Decline With Risk Sentiment and Fear in Overdrive
  • News: Cemex to Divest Its Dominican Republic Operations for $950 Million
  • Iron Ore Tracker (07-Aug-2024): Port Arrivals High, Inventory Piles up at 35 Ports
  • Morning Views Asia: Greentown China, Medco Energi, Vedanta Resources
  • Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): Strong Financials. All Eyes on Strategic Review Process


GA Pack (468 HK): Stalemate Broken as Management Considers a Possible Counteroffer

By Arun George

  • Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) disclosed that Mr Bi Hua Jeff (CEO) and Mr Hong Gang (co-founder) are contemplating a possible voluntary conditional offer. The terms and conditions were not disclosed.
  • Due to the recent AGM protest votes, management needed to provide a credible alternative to shareholders to ensure that Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)’s offer failed.   
  • Shandong Xinjufeng’s likely game plan is to wait for a binding counteroffer, focus on satisfying the preconditions, and requisition an EGM again to get Board representation.

The Unusual Flow Trading Development Caused by SK Innovation’s Appraisal Rights Premium

By Sanghyun Park

  • Exceeding the ceiling doesn’t cancel the merger; SK Innovation can still proceed. With their decision confirmed, focus should shift to appraisal rights flows rather than cancellation risk.
  • We should focus on flow trading given the notable exercise size and potential for unprecedented market activity if institutions, including the NPS, exercise their rights due to the juicy premium.
  • The large exercise size and SK Innovation’s KOSPI large-cap status may create unique flow trading opportunities, with potential repurchases after new shares list.

GAPack (468 HK)’s Co-Founders (Almost) Walk The Walk

By David Blennerhassett

  • To say Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)‘s management and Shandong Xinjufeng (301296 CH) (XJF) don’t get along is an understatement. GAPack has labelled XJF’s pre-conditional Offer hostile and unwelcome.
  • Last night (6th August), co-founders Jeff Bi and Gang Hong tabled a non-binding Offer. No price was mentioned. Collectively they hold 14.72% of shares out compared to XJF’s 26.8%.
  • A firm Offer (and price) would have been welcome, and this probably reflects on-going funding negotiations. But the announcement will give minorities pause if/when tendering into XJF’s Offer.

Metals Decline With Risk Sentiment and Fear in Overdrive

By Pranay Yadav

  • Gold, silver, and copper futures fell by 3%, 6.7%, and 4.6% respectively on Monday amidst recession fears
  • Gold and silver options showed bullish sentiment with significant call option buildup, while copper options saw mixed activity with high put interest in the front-month
  • Implied volatility surged for gold, silver, and copper, with copper IV increasing by 7 percentage points to 27% post non-farm payroll report

News: Cemex to Divest Its Dominican Republic Operations for $950 Million

By Leandro Gubler

  • The transaction is valued at approximately 6.8x 2023 EBITDA, or $396/ton, which we consider a good price given that Cemex currently trades at 5.5x LTM EBITDA, or $208/ ton.
  • We view Cemex’s divestments of its Dominican Republic assets as a positive credit event that aligns with its strategic priorities.
  • With this divestment, the company should focus on growing its key markets through bolt-on acquisition while maintaining its commitment to a healthy balance sheet.

Iron Ore Tracker (07-Aug-2024): Port Arrivals High, Inventory Piles up at 35 Ports

By Sameer Taneja

  • Iron ore bounced from the 100 USD/ton level and has maintained a rangebound level between 95 and 130 USD/ton for the last three years.
  • Inventories at the ports continued to increase, surpassing 150 million tons, representing about 38 days of inventory (normalized levels around 35 days). 
  • After Capital Group’s recent selldownFortescue Metals (FMG AU) looks attractive (with a trailing dividend yield of 11% and 6.5x PE) and could be worth exploring. 

Morning Views Asia: Greentown China, Medco Energi, Vedanta Resources

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Tethys Oil AB (SSE: TETY): Strong Financials. All Eyes on Strategic Review Process

By Auctus Advisors

  • 2Q24 production of 7,688 bbl/d had been previously reported.
  • 2Q24 production was negatively impacted by flooding and production is expected to return to normal during 3Q24.
  • In light of the flooding, FY24 production guidance has been trimmed from 7.8-8.6 mbbl/d to 7.8-8.2 mbbl/d.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Consumer: Toyota Motor, Fancl Corp, SPDR S&P 500, Sapporo Holdings, Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, MercadoLibre , China Resources Beverage, Ginebra San Miguel , SRS Holdings and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Thinking About The Toyota Tender Offer Buyback
  • Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP) Relents and Bumps to JPY2,800
  • Global Markets Plummet as Recession Fears, Weak Jobs Report, and Israel-Iran Conflicts Escalate
  • Sapporo Holdings: Investor Activism Sparks Short-Term Gains, Tax Reforms Ensure Long-Term Success
  • Eternal Beauty Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • The Number of TOPIX Components Should Be More Reduced to Raise the Quality of Engagement, Though
  • MercadoLibre 2Q24: Fintech Credit Fuels Commerce Growth
  • China Resources Beverage Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Middling
  • Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas
  • SRS Holdings (8163 JP): Coverage initiation


Thinking About The Toyota Tender Offer Buyback

By Travis Lundy

  • In May when shares were trading near ¥3,500-3,600, Toyota announced a ¥1trln buyback. When shares fell, they announced a Tender Offer Buyback at a large discount (¥2,781/share). 
  • Subsequently, the shares fell very sharply on Thursday 1 August, then again Friday and yesterday. That put shares WELL below the Tender Offer Price. That creates possible opportunity. 
  • This insight discusses modalities (talk to your advisor for specific advice/info) who might do what and why. It sets parameters. But I think Toyota is cheap here.

Fancl (4921 JP): Kirin (2503 JP) Relents and Bumps to JPY2,800

By Arun George

  • Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) has increased the Fancl Corp (4921 JP) tender offer price by 4.1% to JPY2,800 and extended the offer period to 28 August. The price is final.
  • Kirin tried to get the required acceptances by refusing to bump and extending the offer period. However, these tactics failed, as the shares continued to trade above terms.
  • The Board twice asked Kirin to raise its offer higher than JPY2,800, but eventually recommended the revised offer. Nevertheless, the bump should be sufficient for Kirin to succeed. 

Global Markets Plummet as Recession Fears, Weak Jobs Report, and Israel-Iran Conflicts Escalate

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • July saw only 114,000 new jobs versus a forecast of 180,000. Unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021. 
  • The S&P 500 fell 1.8% and dropped below its 50-day moving average, tech and semiconductor sectors led significant market declines. 
  • Implied volatility surged as the S&P 500 saw high put options activity. Analysts expect a potential market rebound later in August.

Sapporo Holdings: Investor Activism Sparks Short-Term Gains, Tax Reforms Ensure Long-Term Success

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)‘s strategic position in the domestic market, coupled with untapped potential in international markets, makes the company an interesting prospect for the long-term.
  • 3D Investment Partners’ July 2024 letter praising Sapporo’s intention to divest its real estate business has reignited investor interest in Sapporo as a play focusing on Japan’s investor activism.
  • Therefore, Sapporo seems interesting both in the short term and long term, as we think shares could break out to a new high with trading volumes showing signs of improvement.

Eternal Beauty Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Eternal Beauty Holdings Limited (EBHL12 HK) is looking to raise about US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by BNP Paribas, Citic, CMBI and DBS.
  • Eternal Beauty is the largest brand management company of perfumes in the combined markets of Mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau, in terms of retail sales in 2023.
  • The company has a diverse portfolio of iconic brands of not only perfumes, but also color cosmetics, skincare products, personal care products, eyewear and home fragrances under management.

The Number of TOPIX Components Should Be More Reduced to Raise the Quality of Engagement, Though

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The cost is somewhat reduced for the user because of the higher weighting of more liquid stocks. Meanwhile, selling pressure is inevitable for less liquid companies whose weights are reduced.
  • Even if the number of stocks decreases, 1,200 stocks isn’t small number. Also, even though the market capitalization of the components has increased, approximately 73 billion yen isn’t sufficiently liquid.
  • With calls for increased engagement, the number of issues remains too large for domestic asset managers, where passive funds account for a high percentage of AUM.

MercadoLibre 2Q24: Fintech Credit Fuels Commerce Growth

By Leandro Gubler

  • We maintain our Outperform recommendation on MercadoLibre with a preference for MELI 2.375% 2026 bonds. We remain optimistic about the company’s overall financial and business risks.
  • Revenues increased by 41.5% (FX-neutral: 113%) to $5.1 billion in 2Q24. However, the EBIT margin contracted significantly by 440 bps to 14.3% from 18.7%.
  • MELI ended the quarter with $976mn in net debt, down from $1.4 bn sequentially. Gross leverage remained relatively stable at 1.8x, and net leverage improved by 0.2x sequentially to 0.3x.  

China Resources Beverage Pre-IPO – Peer Comparison – Middling

By Sumeet Singh

  • China Resources Beverage is looking to raise US$1bn in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.
  • In our earlier note, we talked about the company’s past performance. In this note, we will undertake a peer comparison.

Shortlist of High Conviction Philippines Equity Ideas

By Sameer Taneja


SRS Holdings (8163 JP): Coverage initiation

By Shared Research

  • In FY03/24, revenue was JPY60.2bn (+10.5% YoY), operating profit was JPY2.2bn (operating loss of JPY607mn in FY03/23), recurring profit was JPY2.2bn (recurring loss of JPY669mn), and net income attributable to owners of the parent was JPY1.8bn (net loss of JPY1.5bn).
  • Revenue and profits grew YoY.
  • Contributing factors included the normalization of social and economic activities as the pandemic’s impact tapered off, the increase in customer count thanks to various marketing efforts, and various measures aimed at profitability improvement.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Financials: Nikkei 225, Bitcoin, New World Development, S&P 500 INDEX, Road King Infrastructure, Flywire Corp, Regional REIT Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • How Has the Index Rebalance Strategy Performed During Market Turmoil?
  • Crypto Crisp: Bloodbath at Peak Fear
  • NWD 17 HK Update: De-Leveraging in Process, the Biggest Beneficiary of Fed Rate Cut Cycle
  • Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals
  • Road King – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Flywire Up For Sale After Receiving Acquisition Interest! Is It A Suitable Acquisition Target?
  • Regional REIT – Recapitalisation returns focus to operations


How Has the Index Rebalance Strategy Performed During Market Turmoil?

By Brian Freitas

  • The market turmoil over the last few trading sessions has not been kind to a simple index rebalance strategy of buying the forecast adds and selling the forecast deletes.
  • The overall returns and stock specific returns indicate that trades are more crowded in some indices as compared to others and traders should consider that when position sizing.
  • Anecdotally, periods of negative returns are followed by periods of strong returns for the strategy as weak hands are shaken out of their positions.

Crypto Crisp: Bloodbath at Peak Fear

By Mads Eberhardt

  • It has been a massive bloodbath across the financial markets, not just in crypto.
  • The Japanese Nikkei 225 Index experienced its largest intraday percentage drop since 1987.
  • The S&P 500 opened about 3.5% down, with the Magnificent Seven stocks plunging around 9% at the opening.

NWD 17 HK Update: De-Leveraging in Process, the Biggest Beneficiary of Fed Rate Cut Cycle

By Jacob Cheng

  • In this update, we analyzed recent NWD’s corporate actions, which show their de-leveraging plan is on track
  • NWD, having the highest gearing among HK RE names, will become the biggest beneficiary if Fed starts a new rate cut cycle
  • Valuation is compelling.  There is ample upside assuming a bear case scenario.  It is a BUY

Downgrading Outlook on $SPX; Upgrading Real Estate and Staples. Many Significant Risk-Off Signals

By Joe Jasper

  • We are downgrading our long-term outlook to neutral (had been bullish since early-November 2023) due to rapidly deteriorating market dynamics
  • We still believe the S&P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but odds have increased that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern.
  • SPX is initially holding at 5100-5191 as discussed last week, but we’re not interested in knife-catching or picking a bottom, want to see stabilization/price discovery before adjusting our still-defensive posture.

Road King – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Road King’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with the Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


Flywire Up For Sale After Receiving Acquisition Interest! Is It A Suitable Acquisition Target?

By Baptista Research

  • Flywire Corporation has been discussed as a potential acquisition target due to several leading factors that underline its attractiveness in the financial technology sector.
  • Flywire’s substantial client base, marked by successful expansion to over 4,000 clients since its Initial Public Offering in 2021, signals strong company growth and market acceptance.
  • Serving clients across more than 50 countries and capable of handling transactions in over 140 currencies, Flywire boasts significant global reach and operational capabilities in foreign exchange.

Regional REIT – Recapitalisation returns focus to operations

By Edison Investment Research

The completion of Regional REIT’s (RGL’s) £110.5m equity raise has reduced gearing, including repayment of its retail bonds, and provides additional flexibility to its capex and disposal programmes. With funding uncertainty lifted, investor attention is likely to refocus on operational performance and the wider outlook for the regional office sector. Robust occupier demand for good quality assets continues to generate rental growth and the tone of the investment market has begun to improve.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Health Care: Hutchmed China Ltd, Organovo Holdings , Seikagaku Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) 24H1 – Fruquintinib’s US Sales Beat; Break-Even Is Within Reach
  • ONVO: Test Results Could Open Door to Acquisition
  • Seikagaku Corp (4548 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update


Hutchmed China Ltd (13.HK/​​HCM.US) 24H1 – Fruquintinib’s US Sales Beat; Break-Even Is Within Reach

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Fruquintinib US sales continue to be the main performance driver. License-out expectations for surufatinib is low.Highlight for savolitinib is the combination with osimertinib for NSCLC, which would bring high growth.
  • Future playbook of HUTCHMED is “continued sharp reduction of expenses + milestones from Takeda based on fruquintinib overseas sales = rapid narrowng of losses”.2024 overseas market sales may exceed US$300m.
  • There is not much problem with HUTCHMED completing its performance guidance for the year 2024. Reasonable market value range for HUTCHMED is US$1.75-3.75 billion. Breakeven is expected in 2025.

ONVO: Test Results Could Open Door to Acquisition

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Organovo is a biotech company that has 3D technology enabling the company to produce various human tissues, allowing the company to target diseases and accelerate the drug development process.
  • The company released its 1Q financial report that showed improved good cash balances and bested estimates.
  • The company also recently reiterated positive Phase 2 results for one of its primary treatments-FXR314.

Seikagaku Corp (4548 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • The company reported YoY increases in sales (3.7%), operating profit (26.3%), recurring profit (11.6%), and net income (0.7%).
  • Pharmaceuticals Business sales fell 1.6% YoY to JPY7.1bn, with notable declines in Domestic and Overseas Pharmaceuticals segments.
  • R&D expenses were JPY1.6bn (20.4% of sales, excluding royalty income); significant pipeline developments include SI-6603 and SI-449.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ESG: China Oil & Gas – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • China Oil & Gas – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics


China Oil & Gas – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess China Oil & Gas’ ESG as “Adequate”, in line with the Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Time to Buy Japan? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Time to Buy Japan?


Time to Buy Japan?

By Douglas Busch

  • Nikkei looking oversold on all daily, WEEKLY, and MONTHLY timeframes.
  • KWEB records strong bullish engulfing candle on weak overall tape Monday.
  • MELI versus AMZN ratio chart favoring the former. Technical complexion change.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Analyzing the Triggers Behind Global Stock Market Sell-Off in Jul-24 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Analyzing the Triggers Behind Global Stock Market Sell-Off in Jul-24
  • Ohayo Japan | Volatility Surges; Futures Recover
  • Episode 78: What a Week in Semis! AMD! ARM! Qualcomm! Intel?
  • US Stock Market – US Banks Have Total Deposits of USD17.4tr, Which Was USD3-4tr ~30 Yrs Ago
  • Japan Morning Connection: 7453 JP, 4307 JP, 6857 JP


Analyzing the Triggers Behind Global Stock Market Sell-Off in Jul-24

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Nikkei 225 dropped 12.4% on August 5, 2024, amid yen strength and recession fears in the U.S., triggering circuit breakers.
  • Economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and interest rate changes are heightening market volatility, impacting global investor sentiment and financial stability.
  • The Yen Carry Trade has faced turmoil due to rising Japan interest rates, Fed comments on rate cuts, and a weaker-than-expected US job report, leading to substantial market sell-offs.

Ohayo Japan | Volatility Surges; Futures Recover

By Mark Chadwick

  • Stocks plummeted on Monday, with the Dow suffering its worst day in nearly two years due to growing concerns over the U.S. economy. The Dow dropped 1,033 points
  • The Cboe Volatility Index surged to its highest since early 2020, reflecting heightened market anxiety
  • Nikkei futures rebounded to 33,830 yen, 2,450 yen higher than the closing price of the OSE.

Episode 78: What a Week in Semis! AMD! ARM! Qualcomm! Intel?

By The Circuit

  • A week dominated by earnings reports, particularly in the semiconductor industry
  • Microsoft and AWS’s strong capex spending indicates a positive outlook for data center infrastructure
  • AMD’s revenue growth driven by data center and client segments, with potential for further growth in the next quarter due to capacity constraints and solid execution under CEO Lisa Su

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


US Stock Market – US Banks Have Total Deposits of USD17.4tr, Which Was USD3-4tr ~30 Yrs Ago

By Daniel Tabbush

  • The amount of deposits in the US banking system are substantial in absolute terms and compared with recent periods and older periods
  • Of the USD17.4tr in deposits in the US banking system, 86% is liquid, available to access
  • Alongside concerns about the S&P 500 Index or the broad US stock market, we believe it is worthwhile to keep in mind the amount of depositor liquidity

Japan Morning Connection: 7453 JP, 4307 JP, 6857 JP

By Andrew Jackson

  • More tech weakness in the US but most names off their lows, with Japan futures pointing to a recovery
  • Big margin calls yesterday at Japanese retail brokers may see continued forced selling in the most crowded names.
  • A quick glance at names with upside catalysts/strong fundamental drivers which should have room to run on an overall market recovery.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ECM: Ola Electric IPO: Forecasts and Valuation and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Ola Electric IPO: Forecasts and Valuation
  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals IPO Trading – Strong Demand and a Decent Margin of Safety
  • MDL Wholesale Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Saint Bella IPO: Growth Story Intact, A First-Mover Advantage in Postpartum Care Market in China


Ola Electric IPO: Forecasts and Valuation

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Ola Electric (1700674D IN) plans to raise INR55bn through fresh issue of shares while existing shareholders will offer 84.9m shares at an indicative IPO price band of INR72-76 per share.
  • We expect the company’s revenues to continue to expand and grow at much higher rates during the next few years compared to competitors in the Indian two-wheeler market.
  • Our valuation analysis suggests that Ola Electric’s IPO is attractively priced compared to peers and we would suggest subscribing for the company’s IPO.

Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals IPO Trading – Strong Demand and a Decent Margin of Safety

By Ethan Aw

  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (0200361D IN) raised around US$222m in its India IPO, after pricing the deal at the top end of the range at INR679/share.
  • Akums Drugs and Pharmaceuticals (ADP) is a pharmaceutical contract development and manufacturing organization (CDMO) offering a comprehensive range of pharmaceutical products and services in India and overseas.
  • We have looked at various aspects of the deal in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about demand and trading dynamics.

MDL Wholesale Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • MDL Wholesale (WMHGCZ CH) is looking to raise about US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The deal will be run by UBS, CMS, CMBI, Deutsche Bank, BOCI, and China Galaxy.
  • MDL Wholesale is a leading food and FMCG distribution solution provider in China, providing a broad range of customers and retailers with high-quality merchandise and convenient solutions
  • Its solutions mainly include (i) food service and distribution, (ii) welfare and gifting, (iii) retailer distribution (comprising product sales to retailers and supply chain services) and (iv) merchandise wholesale. 

Saint Bella IPO: Growth Story Intact, A First-Mover Advantage in Postpartum Care Market in China

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Saint Bella, a premium postpartum care service provider, filed to go public in Hong Kong. UBS and CITIC Securities are leading the offering.
  • Saint Bella operates ultra-premium postpartum centers in Asia, which are located at luxury hotels and detached villas. The company opened its first postpartum center in Hangzhou in 2017.
  • With strong multi-brand strategy and asset-light business model, Saint Bella is uniquely positioned in premium segment under Saint Bella, Bella Isla and Baby Bella brands.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Event-Driven: Itochu (8001 JP) Launches Lowball TOB for Descente (8114) – Buying China on the Cheap and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Itochu (8001 JP) Launches Lowball TOB for Descente (8114) – Buying China on the Cheap
  • Kokusai Electric (6525): Global Index Inclusion Highly Dependent on Free Float
  • Itochu Buying Out Sub CI Takiron (4215) Below Book – Too Cheap And Weak Process/Transparency
  • Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Light Pre-Conditional Offer
  • China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update – Things Are Still Manageable
  • Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): Reversing the Huge Flows from June
  • C.I.TAKIRON (4215 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Light Tender Offer at JPY870
  • Potential Additions and Deletions to KOSPI 200 in December 2024 Amid Market Downturn
  • TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (August 2024)
  • EQD | The S&P500 WEEKLY Smashed The Tails Barrier, Reversal Due Soon


Itochu (8001 JP) Launches Lowball TOB for Descente (8114) – Buying China on the Cheap

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Itochu Corp (8001 JP) announced it would launch a Tender Offer when approvals were received, to buy out minorities in Descente Ltd (8114 JP) at ¥4,350/share.
  • Itochu was buying at that price or higher, in the market, in October 2023. Earnings and book are up since then. Outlook for the Descente China Holdings affiliate? Great. 
  • The valuation transparency is disappointing. Activists would have 3mos or so to push for more. But with friendly holders, they get very close to the minimum anyway.

Kokusai Electric (6525): Global Index Inclusion Highly Dependent on Free Float

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • IPO lock-up expiry of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) results in a forecasted increase in free float to 35% and fcap of $2.9bn for the August 2024 review. 
  • Secondary offering of Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) results in a forecasted increase in free float to 60-65% and latest fcap of $3.4bn- $3.7bn for the November 2024 review. 
  • Inclusion will be determined based on fcap against the fcap threshold. Fcap uncertainty for November is largely driven by stock price fluctuations and the Greenshoe Option. 

Itochu Buying Out Sub CI Takiron (4215) Below Book – Too Cheap And Weak Process/Transparency

By Travis Lundy

  • Itochu Corp (8001 JP) today announced another TOB to buy out minorities of a sub other than Descente Ltd (8114 JP). C.I. TAKIRON Corporation (4215 JP) at ¥870. A takeunder.
  • The stock was up a lot today I assume on news I didn’t see. Slightly lower than the close. Low EV/EBITDA multiple. Lacking transparency.
  • The Board is OK selling at below book, but if one takes out net cash, securities, net receivables, and inventory/materials of one quarter of sales, the rest is 0.54x book.

Descente (8114 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Light Pre-Conditional Offer

By Arun George

  • Descente Ltd (8114 JP) has recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from Itochu Corp (8001 JP) at JPY4,350, 16.6% premium to the undisturbed price. 
  • The pre-condition is approval under the competition laws of Japan and China. The offer is anticipated to commence in early November. In January 2019, Itochu completed a hostile partial offer.
  • While the offer is attractive vs peer multiples, it is light vs historical trading ranges. Securing the required acceptance rate could prove challenging as the price is light. 

China TCM (570.HK) Privatization Update – Things Are Still Manageable

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • What disappoints investors is that privatization progress is slower-than-expected. Since approval is in “advanced stage”, August update is eye-catching. Investors may need more patience with this type of SOE deal. 
  • The key to the success of this privatization lies in whether CNPGC is willing to abide by its commitments. If yes, CNPGC will take all measures to solve the problems.
  • According to our valuation calculation, even without this privatization, HK$3.5/share is fair for China TCM. Reasonable share price is above HK$5/share. Don’t forget, the privatization is still on the agenda.

Technology Select Sector Index (XLK US): Reversing the Huge Flows from June

By Brian Freitas


C.I.TAKIRON (4215 JP): Itochu’s (8001 JP) Light Tender Offer at JPY870

By Arun George

  • C.I. TAKIRON Corporation (4215 JP) has recommended a tender offer from Itochu Corp (8001 JP) at JPY870, a 9.7% premium to the undisturbed price of JPY793 (2 August).
  • The lower limit of the tender offer is set at a 10.97% ownership ratio. The tender offer runs from 6 August to 18 September, with payment from 26 September. 
  • While attractive vs peer multiples, the offer is light due to a skinny takeover premium, an implied P/B below 1x, and 9% below the mid-point IFA DCF valuation. 

Potential Additions and Deletions to KOSPI 200 in December 2024 Amid Market Downturn

By Douglas Kim

  • We discuss the potential additions and deletions to KOSPI 200 in December 2024 amid big declines in share prices of many stocks in KOSPI in the past week.
  • The eight potential additions are up on average 8.5% from end of 2023. The eight potential deletion candidates are down on average 39.1% YTD.
  • The average market cap of the seven potential additions is 1.9 trillion won. The average market cap of the seven potential deletion candidates is 0.6 trillion won.

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (August 2024)

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
  • SUNWELS Co (9229 JP) and Macbee Planet (7095 JP) moved to the Prime market in July 2024 which means there will TOPIX Inclusions at the end of August 2024.
  • Our pre-event pick CELSYS (3663 JP) has seen its price fall by more than 20% during the recent market sell-off and it is close to a key share price threshold.  

EQD | The S&P500 WEEKLY Smashed The Tails Barrier, Reversal Due Soon

By Nico Rosti

  • The S&P 500 INDEX is massively oversold WEEKLY (and DAILY).
  • Our models indicate the index is trading in the “Tails” area of the LONG model, a reversal is probably imminent, but forecasts in this  price area are less reliable.
  • Accumulation can start from Monday’s low prices (around 5100), the reversal will probably come next week.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars