Daily Briefs

• The Hillhouse (Asia-based global PE firm) deal for SAMTY HOLDINGS Co Ltd (187A JP) has seen Samty shares trade tight to terms in the first three days of trading.
• Some 7.5mm shares have traded. This is only 16% of shares out, but it is a much larger portion of Maximum Real World Float. 
• This begs the question of whether the deal could be put in jeopardy by the actions of one or two shareholders. 

• Chosun Business Daily mentioned that K Bank IPO book building results among institutional investors have been very poor so far. 
• As a result, the bankers and K Bank are currently considering on potentially reducing the IPO price to about 8,500 won or even cancelling the IPO altogether. 
• Our base case valuation of K Bank is target price of 9,151 won per share. Even if the IPO is priced at 8,500 won, we would pass on this IPO.

• Arvida (ARV NZ) will be deleted from the S&P/NZX 50 Index following its acquisition by Stonepeak Alps BidCo. Tower Ltd (TWR NZ) will be added to the index.
• Passive NZX50 Index trackers will need to buy nearly 18m shares of Tower Ltd (TWR NZ) – that is over 26 days of ADV.
• There has been a lot of positioning in Tower Ltd (TWR NZ) since Stonepeak’s offer for Arvida (ARV NZ). There should be enough supply for the passive trackers. 

• A special call auction shall be held on October 28, 2024 by BSE & NSE to discover hidden value in Investment Holding Companies.
• BSE and NSE came out with the list of 8-9 Companies that are eligible for this special session. 
• We calculated the upside left in these companies using the Current price with 30% discount: 3 Companies with more than 100% upside.

• Back on the 9th September, pub play Hotel Property Investments (HPI AU) announced – and summarily rejected – a A$3.65/share cash Offer from Charter Hall Retail Reit (CQR AU).
• Charter Hall has now increased terms to A$3.85/share (best & final), a 17.7% premium to undisturbed. The Offer remains conditional on an 50.1% minimum acceptance condition. Charter Hall holds 14.7%. 
• HPI’s reported response? “While Charter Hall’s improved offer provides an attractive exit for shareholders, we remain committed to evaluating all options that deliver the best long-term value.“

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

• Vedanta Resources

• Beijing Capital Grand (1329 HK) entered a trading halt based on the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers. 
• It is likely that Beijing Capital Land Ltd H (2868 HK), the largest shareholder, is launching an offer primarily to acquire the stake from Sino-Ocean Group (3377 HK) receivers. 
• As this is a forced sale, an offer of around HK$0.70-0.75, a 20%- 30% premium to the last close, would be sufficient to gain an irrevocable from the receivers. 

• NAV of Industrivarden (INDUC SS) was SEK 162.8 bn (SEK 377/share) on September 30. NAV increased by 8% during first nine months of 2024. 5-Y total return 96.3% (OMX30, 77%).
• Industrivärden C shares are trading at a 2.3% discount to NAV (vs. 7.9% average for last 5-years). It seems risky to bet on a further discount reduction, rather a reversal.
• My target NAV is SEK 169,667 million million. My TP for the C shares of Industrivärden, assuming a 5% discount to NAV, is SEK 373.2 (3% upside).

• The company required a $180 billion bailout from the US government during the financial crisis, but has since fully repaid it with interest.
• Under Peter Zafino’s leadership, AIG has refocused its underwriting efforts, returning to profitability and divesting non-core businesses.
• AIG has undergone a remarkable turnaround post-financial crisis, focusing on specialty insurance for top quartile industry returns

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Primary Health Properties (PHP) has issued a Q324 trading update alongside its capital markets presentation. The presentation focused on the significant opportunities for growth that PHP has identified in both the UK and Irish markets. Most importantly, the trading statement shows organic rental growth continuing, underpinning PHP’s commitment to its progressive dividend policy. Our forecasts are, for now, unchanged.