Daily Briefs

Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) was trading ¥2,800-3,200 earlier this year before Murakami-san bought a large stake. All the news of coal shut down and cash pile were in the price.
After he bought, the stock popped. It fell back, went sideways in a range, and for 5 weeks has been falling in a straight line.
There’s a reason for that. But it may not be a great reason. And the stock is in a great place.

Kansai Electric US$3.5bn Deal Updates – Has Delivered a Decent Correction, as Compared to past Deals

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) plans to raise up to US$3.5bn (including over-allocation) to partly fund its investment plans.
In our earlier note, we talked about the placement and ran the deal through our ECM framework.
In this note, we talk about the updates and share price performance since then.

FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.
FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care, and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 9M24 revenue.
The bull case rests on return to revenue growth, three-pronged growth strategy, top-quartile profitability and top-tier FCF generation.

FineToday Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Growth and Margins Have Wavered

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

CVC Capital is aiming to raise over US$500m, via selling some of its stake in FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) in Japan.
FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

Nominating Committee Is Becoming More Active in a Few Companies, but No Sign yet of Spreading to All

By Aki Matsumoto

Even the companies with US type 3 committees, which is expected to have higher awareness of corporate governance, there’re differences in the status of nominating committee activities among the companies.
While doubts about whether the nominating committee is fulfilling its function have not been dispelled, there have been cases of low approval rates for proposals for the election of directors.
Since discussions in voluntary nominating committees are only advisory, more companies are expected to move to Company with US type 3 Committees, which have statutory nominating committees.

Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Conservative FY9/25 Guidance with Potential Avenues to Enhance Returns

By Astris Advisory Japan

Firm results with a reserved outlook – Q1- 4FY9/24 results were ahead of guidance and highlighted that Q4 FY9/24 trading was in line with expectations, in contrast to a strong start to the year.
The company made positive developments in improving the sales mix in the Chemicals and Overseas Subsidiaries segments and has increased FY9/24 DPS to ¥55 from the previously guided ¥45, which was a positive surprise.
Guidance for FY9/25 appears to be conservative in our view. Nevertheless, it telegraphs a slowdown in earnings momentum and mixed earnings visibility with an expected slowdown from life science activity at subsidiary SCRUM Inc., balanced with contributions from large projects in the wood biomass-related business.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief China: S.F. Holding, Kingsoft Corp, Tuya Inc, PDD Holdings, Xiaomi Corp, Trip.com, Saint Bella, Hang Seng Index, China Vanke and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation
The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 21)
Tuya: Improving Sales Growth and Profit Margins Help to Clench Investment by 65 Equity Partners
PDD (PDD US): 3Q24, Focuses on Growth, But Not Profit Margin
[Xiaomi Inc. (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$33) Target Price Change]: Good Result, and It Will Only Get Better
[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Domestic Story Back in Focus
Saint Bella Pre-IPO: Rapid Growth but Facing Birth-Rate Headwinds
Pinduoduo: Behind Its Efficiency Edge
EQD | Hang Seng (HSI) – Analysis of Option Strategies Recently Traded on HKEX
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation

Chinese logistics service provider SF Holding has filed for a listing on HKEx and seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through the issuance of 170m shares (3.4% of outstanding shares).
The listing is priced at HK$32.3-36.3 per share, as expected at a 20-29% discount to the last closed price of SF Holding’s A-Shares on 18th November.
Our valuation analysis suggests that SF Holding’s HK offering is attractive at the lower end of the indicative IPO price range.

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 21)

By David Mudd

Hong Kong is again trading well below its historical multiple valuation levels after the October/November correction. Mainland investors bought a record amount the day after Trump’s win.
Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) reported consensus beating results with its online game segment surging. The company is benefiting from AI upgrades in its office SAAS business.
Precision Tsugami China (1651 HK) posted blockbuster earnings for its 1H25 as the machine tool sector rebounds on the back of factories upgrading to intelligent manufacturing.

Tuya: Improving Sales Growth and Profit Margins Help to Clench Investment by 65 Equity Partners

On 18 November, it was announced that 65 Equity Partners (backed by Temasek) will invest US$100 million (S$134 million) for a 13% stake in Tuya Inc (TUYA US).
Net cash as a percentage of market cap is currently at 92%. Tuya’s sales growth and improvement in operating margin in 1Q-3Q 2024 have also been impressive this year.
Comps are trading at average EV/EBITDA of 13.7x in 2025 versus 2.3x for for Tuya. If Tuya continues its turnaround, its valuation gap versus its peers could decrease further.

PDD (PDD US): 3Q24, Focuses on Growth, But Not Profit Margin

By Ming Lu

In 3Q24, PDD released strong revenue growth, but a flat margin.
We believe, in 2025, PDD will continue to focus on growth rather than profit.
We conclude an upside of 43% and a price target of US$167 for 2025. Buy.

[Xiaomi Inc. (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$33) Target Price Change]: Good Result, and It Will Only Get Better

Xiaomi reported CY3Q24 revenue, non-IFRS EBIT and non-IFRS net income 4.7%, 7.8%, and 16.6% vs. consensus.
C4Q should be even stronger, as (1) appliance subsidy drive IoT revenue and margin improvement, (2) SU7 production output ~doubles
We reiterate Xiaomi as our TOP BUY idea and raise Xiaomi’s TP to HK$ 33 to reflect the improved profit outlook. Our TP implies 26.6x CY25 P/E.

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Domestic Story Back in Focus

TCOM reported C3Q24 revenue 1.4%/1.6% higher than our est./cons., non-GAAP operating income is 12.5%/5.4% higher than our est./cons., mainly due to strong domestic sales and efficient cost control.
We expect revenue growth to accelerate in 4Q24 and 2025,backed by domestic travel recovery and steady overseas expansion.AI powered cost saving bringing extra leverage in margin is an additional positive.
We keep the stock as BUY rating and raise TP to US$74/ADS.

Saint Bella Pre-IPO: Rapid Growth but Facing Birth-Rate Headwinds

By Nicholas Tan

Saint Bella (SAINT HK) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It operates the second largest and fastest growing postpartum care and recovery service in China, as per Frost & Sullivan. It operates an extensive network of 59 premium postpartum centers.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

Pinduoduo: Behind Its Efficiency Edge

By Eric Chen

We compared similar growth stage of Alibaba to Pinduoduo, when GMV of both platforms increase from RMB1 trillion to RMB4 trillion, to facilitate better understanding of efficiency edge of Pinduoduo.
Contrary to consensus, Pinduoduo didn’t do better than Alibaba on OPEX (advertising expenditure in particular), but it did extract much greater value from the ecosystem via significantly higher take-rate.
The findings highlight how Pinduoduo aggregate user traffic at surprisingly high cost to beef up merchant competition in terms of cost optimization and user acquisition, with Pinduoduo reaping greatest value.

EQD | Hang Seng (HSI) – Analysis of Option Strategies Recently Traded on HKEX

By Gaudenz Schneider

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) implied volatility fell across the term structure and skew. The skew displays a smile favoring specific option strategies.
The most traded HKEX traded tailor-made combinations are Call and Put Spreads. Straddles, Strangles and Butterflies have become less popular most recently.
While three quarters of all strategies take a long volatility position, there is a balance in bullish, bearish, and market-neutral strategies.

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Gajah Tunggal, ReNew Energy, Adani Green Energy, Bharti Airtel, UPL Limited
Treasuries fell yesterday, with yields up 1-3 bps across the curve following a soft auction of 20Y notes.
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 3 bps to 4.32%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 1 bp at 4.41%.

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Nov 22

Most Read: Seven & I Holdings, Kadokawa Dwango, Zomato, Mitsui Matsushima, Arcadium Lithium , Shinsung Delta Tech, Adani Enterprises, Hyosung Heavy Industries Corp, Kansai Electric Power and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

KEPCO (9503 JP): Index Implications of US$3.5bn Primary + Secondary Offering
Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Evaluating the Potential MBO
Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface
NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: More Changes with New F&O Stocks
[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason
Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount
KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 December Rejig Lineup
Adani Group’s Indictment: Bribery, Fraud, and the Global Fallout
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Adds in Line; Couple of Deletes Are Surprises
Kansai Electric US$3.5bn Deal Updates – Has Delivered a Decent Correction, as Compared to past Deals

KEPCO (9503 JP): Index Implications of US$3.5bn Primary + Secondary Offering

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) is looking to raise up to US$3.5bn via a primary offering and a sale of Treasury shares. Pricing date is between 26-29 November.
Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) is among the better performing stocks from the Electric Utilities industry and trades at higher valuations compared to its peers.
There will be a fair bit of passive buying with around 29% of the offering being bought at the time of settlement of the shares.

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Evaluating the Potential MBO

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) did not dispute the NHK article’s claims that the founding family aims to raise buyout funds by the end of the fiscal year.
Since 13 November, there have been conflicting press reports on the MBO offer price. The NHK article’s implied offer price of JPY3,082 seems the most credible.
The MBO’s aggressive completion timeline pressures Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) to respond by either overbidding, working with the founding family at the back-end or walking away.

Kadokawa (9468 JP): Take Profits as a Sony Privatisation Rumours Surface

Kadokawa Dwango (9468 JP) shares rose 16% after Reuters reported that Sony Corp (6758 JP) is in talks to acquire it. Kadokawa confirmed an initial letter of intent.
The privatisation interest is unsurprising as Kadokawa’s publishing arm, acclaimed intellectual properties, and positioning in the anime industry would be attractive to Sony.
The upside is limited as the last close reflects a significant takeover premium. There is a risk if a binding proposal emerges, it could be takeunder like Bain/T-Gaia.

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: More Changes with New F&O Stocks

There could be 17 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December. Some changes from earlier following 45 new F&O stocks.
If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 61.5% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 63.4bn (US$752m).
The potential inclusions to the index have outperformed the potential deletions since the start of June. This trend could continue for a couple of weeks till the changes are announced.

[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason

Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) was trading ¥2,800-3,200 earlier this year before Murakami-san bought a large stake. All the news of coal shut down and cash pile were in the price.
After he bought, the stock popped. It fell back, went sideways in a range, and for 5 weeks has been falling in a straight line.
There’s a reason for that. But it may not be a great reason. And the stock is in a great place.

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

The Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) scheme meeting relating to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.
The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.
Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain.

KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 December Rejig Lineup

KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Dec reshuffle looks set—official lineup drops post-close today.
Passive flows for KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 are estimated at 40T KRW and 3.5T KRW, based on typical flow sizes until the effective date.
These predictions combine my sim results with reliable local intel. The accuracy’s solid enough to start pulling the trigger on trades.

Adani Group’s Indictment: Bribery, Fraud, and the Global Fallout

Gautam Adani and executives indicted in U.S. for bribery, fraud, and obstructing justice tied to renewable energy projects worth billions.
Allegations spotlight governance risks, promoter-driven models, and transparency issues in Indian conglomerates, threatening investor trust in Adani Group and renewable energy sectors.
Adani Group issued media statement saying that charges in indictment are baseless and denied.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Adds in Line; Couple of Deletes Are Surprises

There will be 4 additions and 5 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 12 December.
The 4 adds are exactly in line with our forecast but a couple of the deletions are surprises. Those two names were close deletes though.
The are some large shorts on a few deletes and there could be covering over the next few weeks as borrows are recalled and as the stocks drop.

Kansai Electric US$3.5bn Deal Updates – Has Delivered a Decent Correction, as Compared to past Deals

Kansai Electric Power (9503 JP) plans to raise up to US$3.5bn (including over-allocation) to partly fund its investment plans.
In our earlier note, we talked about the placement and ran the deal through our ECM framework.
In this note, we talk about the updates and share price performance since then.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Sunic System Ltd., Tuya Inc, Kingsoft Corp, Qualcomm Inc, Xiaomi Corp, Harmonic Inc, Hang Seng Index, Ziff Davis, Lightspeed Commerce and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 8 Changes a Side; Fadu Appears to Be a 4 Letter Word
Tuya Inc (TUYA US/2391 HK): Third Listing A Charm? Not So Fast …
The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 21)
Tuya: Improving Sales Growth and Profit Margins Help to Clench Investment by 65 Equity Partners
Qualcomm’s $4 Billion PC Chip Bet: Can It Dominate Beyond Smartphones?
[Xiaomi Inc. (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$33) Target Price Change]: Good Result, and It Will Only Get Better
Why Ancora Thinks Harmonic Inc. Should Explore a Strategic Sale: What Investors Need to Know!
EQD | Hang Seng (HSI) – Analysis of Option Strategies Recently Traded on HKEX
Ziff Davis: These Are The 6 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 &Beyond! – Major Drivers
Lightspeed Commerce Inc.: These Are The 7 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers

KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance: 8 Changes a Side; Fadu Appears to Be a 4 Letter Word

There will be 8 additions and 8 deletions for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 12 December.
Most of the inclusions were forecast but there is a lot of variance among the list of deletions… index committee knows best!
Fadu (440110 KS) was ignored for yet another rebalance, while Snh Inc (051980 KS) has also not been included in the index.

Tuya Inc (TUYA US/2391 HK): Third Listing A Charm? Not So Fast …

By David Blennerhassett

Tuya Inc (TUYA US/2391 HK), a leading IoT cloud platform in China, was listed on the 18th March 2021 at US$21.00/ADS. The share price is currently down 92.5%.
Tuya subsequently established a primary dual-listing in Hong Kong on the 5th July 2022, priced at HK$19.30/share. Those shares are down ~23%
Temasek-Backed 65 Equity Partners has now acquired a 13% stake (equivalent to ~6.2% of the voting rights) in Tuya, with a view to establishing a secondary listing on the SGX.

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (November 21)

By David Mudd

Hong Kong is again trading well below its historical multiple valuation levels after the October/November correction. Mainland investors bought a record amount the day after Trump’s win.
Kingsoft Corp (3888 HK) reported consensus beating results with its online game segment surging. The company is benefiting from AI upgrades in its office SAAS business.
Precision Tsugami China (1651 HK) posted blockbuster earnings for its 1H25 as the machine tool sector rebounds on the back of factories upgrading to intelligent manufacturing.

Tuya: Improving Sales Growth and Profit Margins Help to Clench Investment by 65 Equity Partners

On 18 November, it was announced that 65 Equity Partners (backed by Temasek) will invest US$100 million (S$134 million) for a 13% stake in Tuya Inc (TUYA US).
Net cash as a percentage of market cap is currently at 92%. Tuya’s sales growth and improvement in operating margin in 1Q-3Q 2024 have also been impressive this year.
Comps are trading at average EV/EBITDA of 13.7x in 2025 versus 2.3x for for Tuya. If Tuya continues its turnaround, its valuation gap versus its peers could decrease further.

Qualcomm’s $4 Billion PC Chip Bet: Can It Dominate Beyond Smartphones?

Qualcomm is aggressively pushing into the PC market, aiming to transform its identity from a mobile chip giant to a diversified computing powerhouse.
At its recent investor day, Qualcomm announced bold revenue projections of $4 billion from PC chips by 2029, alongside significant strides in automotive, industrial IoT, and XR markets.
This marks a pivotal moment as Qualcomm ventures beyond its traditional smartphone business, which currently accounts for 75% of its chip revenue.

[Xiaomi Inc. (1810 HK, BUY, TP HK$33) Target Price Change]: Good Result, and It Will Only Get Better

Xiaomi reported CY3Q24 revenue, non-IFRS EBIT and non-IFRS net income 4.7%, 7.8%, and 16.6% vs. consensus.
C4Q should be even stronger, as (1) appliance subsidy drive IoT revenue and margin improvement, (2) SU7 production output ~doubles
We reiterate Xiaomi as our TOP BUY idea and raise Xiaomi’s TP to HK$ 33 to reflect the improved profit outlook. Our TP implies 26.6x CY25 P/E.

Why Ancora Thinks Harmonic Inc. Should Explore a Strategic Sale: What Investors Need to Know!

Harmonic reported record results for the third quarter of 2024, with total company revenue and profitability exceeding expectations.
The company’s Broadband and Video segments both contributed significantly to this performance, showcasing strong execution on business plans.
The Broadband revenue reached $145.3 million, marking a 92% year-over-year increase and a 56% sequential increase.

EQD | Hang Seng (HSI) – Analysis of Option Strategies Recently Traded on HKEX

By Gaudenz Schneider

Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) implied volatility fell across the term structure and skew. The skew displays a smile favoring specific option strategies.
The most traded HKEX traded tailor-made combinations are Call and Put Spreads. Straddles, Strangles and Butterflies have become less popular most recently.
While three quarters of all strategies take a long volatility position, there is a balance in bullish, bearish, and market-neutral strategies.

Ziff Davis: These Are The 6 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 &Beyond! – Major Drivers

Ziff Davis reported its financial performance for the third quarter of 2024, highlighting several strategic advancements and financial outcomes.
Total revenue grew by 3.7% compared to Q3 2023, reaching $353.6 million.
Adjusted EBITDA increased more significantly, by 9.6%, reflecting a focus on operational efficiency and cost management that resulted in a higher adjusted EBITDA margin of 35.3%.

Lightspeed Commerce Inc.: These Are The 7 Biggest Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2025 & Beyond! – Major Drivers

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. reported its fiscal Q2 2025 earnings, showcasing robust performance with a 20% year-over-year increase in total revenue to $277.2 million, surpassing their projected range of $270-$275 million.
This growth was driven by a significant rise in payment services penetration and effective cost control measures, resulting in a record adjusted EBITDA of $14 million, up from breakeven in the same quarter last year.
Furthermore, Lightspeed’s trailing 12-month revenue exceeded $1 billion, demonstrating positive momentum for the company as it celebrates its 20th anniversary.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief Industrials: Mitsui Matsushima, Shinsung Delta Tech, Adani Enterprises, Hyosung Heavy Industries Corp, S.F. Holding, Teco Electric & Machinery, Sunrun Inc, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Sanyo Trading, Full Truck Alliance and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason
KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 December Rejig Lineup
Adani Group’s Indictment: Bribery, Fraud, and the Global Fallout
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Adds in Line; Couple of Deletes Are Surprises
SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation
Asian Dividend Gems: Teco Electric & Machinery
Sunrun Inc.: An Insight Into Its Inflation Reduction Act & Bipartisan Support & Other Major Drivers
Adani Ports – Event Flash – US Charges Gautam Adani And 2 AGEL Executives – Lucror Analytics
Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Conservative FY9/25 Guidance with Potential Avenues to Enhance Returns
Full Truck Alliance Q324 Results: Great Numbers, But Limited Upside Here | BUY Closer to US$8

[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason

Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) was trading ¥2,800-3,200 earlier this year before Murakami-san bought a large stake. All the news of coal shut down and cash pile were in the price.
After he bought, the stock popped. It fell back, went sideways in a range, and for 5 weeks has been falling in a straight line.
There’s a reason for that. But it may not be a great reason. And the stock is in a great place.

KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 December Rejig Lineup

KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Dec reshuffle looks set—official lineup drops post-close today.
Passive flows for KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 are estimated at 40T KRW and 3.5T KRW, based on typical flow sizes until the effective date.
These predictions combine my sim results with reliable local intel. The accuracy’s solid enough to start pulling the trigger on trades.

Adani Group’s Indictment: Bribery, Fraud, and the Global Fallout

Gautam Adani and executives indicted in U.S. for bribery, fraud, and obstructing justice tied to renewable energy projects worth billions.
Allegations spotlight governance risks, promoter-driven models, and transparency issues in Indian conglomerates, threatening investor trust in Adani Group and renewable energy sectors.
Adani Group issued media statement saying that charges in indictment are baseless and denied.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Adds in Line; Couple of Deletes Are Surprises

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

There will be 4 additions and 5 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 12 December.
The 4 adds are exactly in line with our forecast but a couple of the deletions are surprises. Those two names were close deletes though.
The are some large shorts on a few deletes and there could be covering over the next few weeks as borrows are recalled and as the stocks drop.

SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation

Chinese logistics service provider SF Holding has filed for a listing on HKEx and seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through the issuance of 170m shares (3.4% of outstanding shares).
The listing is priced at HK$32.3-36.3 per share, as expected at a 20-29% discount to the last closed price of SF Holding’s A-Shares on 18th November.
Our valuation analysis suggests that SF Holding’s HK offering is attractive at the lower end of the indicative IPO price range.

Asian Dividend Gems: Teco Electric & Machinery

Teco Electric & Machinery (1504 TT) is one of the leading companies in Taiwan that specialize in electrical machinery and industrial automation.
Teco Electric & Machinery provides high dividend payout and solid dividend yield. From 2020 to 2023, the company’s dividend payout and dividend yield averaged 72.9% and 4.6%, respectively.
The company is one of the beneficiaries from the need to upgrade the global energy distribution and storage networks to support the higher usage of AI in the coming years.

Sunrun Inc.: An Insight Into Its Inflation Reduction Act & Bipartisan Support & Other Major Drivers

Sunrun’s third-quarter earnings report for 2024 presents an intricate picture of the company’s operational and financial landscape amid both progress and challenges in the renewable energy sector.
On the positive side, Sunrun achieved a significant milestone by reaching over one million customers, marking a substantial increase in its customer base.
The company’s focus on expanding its storage offerings is noteworthy, with 60% of new customers opting for storage packages, a notable rise from the previous year’s 33%.

Adani Ports – Event Flash – US Charges Gautam Adani And 2 AGEL Executives – Lucror Analytics

The US indictment of key executives is a material credit negative for the Adani Group, with the allegations being more serious than those from Hindenburg Research’s short-sell report in January 2023.
In the near term, the US indictment is likely to constrain the group’s access to financing, particularly in the offshore market.
We note that the Justice Department’s charges are directed at the individual executives, not at Adani Green Energy or other group entities.

Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Conservative FY9/25 Guidance with Potential Avenues to Enhance Returns

By Astris Advisory Japan

Firm results with a reserved outlook – Q1- 4FY9/24 results were ahead of guidance and highlighted that Q4 FY9/24 trading was in line with expectations, in contrast to a strong start to the year.
The company made positive developments in improving the sales mix in the Chemicals and Overseas Subsidiaries segments and has increased FY9/24 DPS to ¥55 from the previously guided ¥45, which was a positive surprise.
Guidance for FY9/25 appears to be conservative in our view. Nevertheless, it telegraphs a slowdown in earnings momentum and mixed earnings visibility with an expected slowdown from life science activity at subsidiary SCRUM Inc., balanced with contributions from large projects in the wood biomass-related business.

Full Truck Alliance Q324 Results: Great Numbers, But Limited Upside Here | BUY Closer to US$8

By Daniel Hellberg

Q324 revenue growth exceeded guidance, rising 33.9% Y/Y vs guidance of 22-25%
Improved revenue mix and effective OpEx control contributed to higher margins
Now close to US$10/ADS, we would wait for an opportunity to buy closer to US$8

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Nov 22

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Arcadium Lithium , Straits Trading, Gold, Solaris Resources , Vicat, Ovintiv , Sintana Energy , Petroleo Brasileiro and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount
Straits Trading (STRTR SP): An Undervalued Real Estate Stock with Multitude of Opportunities
Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Trading Wide Ahead Of 23rd Dec Vote
The Drill: Commodities post Trump election
Solaris Resources: Showing Canada the Middle Finger
Vicat Sa (VCTP.PA) – Thursday, Aug 22, 2024
Ovintiv Inc.: Increased Production Efficiency & Cost Management Driving Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers
Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): Pure Play on the World’s Exploration Hotspot
Petrobras: Revolutionizes Leasing Strategy with Bold Cash Flow Neutrality Move – Here’s what It Means for Investors! – Major Drivers

Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US/LTM AU): Scheme Vote on 23 December as Risks Mount

The Arcadium Lithium (ALTM US) scheme meeting relating to Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)’s US$5.85 offer is on 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025.
The high current 12.3% spread reflects risk related to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The numerous required regulatory approvals pose a risk to completion and/or timing.
Despite depressed lithium prices, the offer remains unattractive on several fronts. Blackwattle, which opposes the offer, could rally others to force a bump. Rio conceding to a bump is uncertain.

Straits Trading (STRTR SP): An Undervalued Real Estate Stock with Multitude of Opportunities

By Kilde

Straits Trading (STRTR SP) is a conglomerate-investment company with diversified investments in resources, real estate and hospitality.
Straits Trading’s key growth engine is its real-estate arm – Straits Real Estate (SRE) which has a diversified property portfolio across different geographies and various sectors.
Despite fluctuations in STC’s earnings, the company continues to pay stable dividends to its shareholders. As at the end of June 30, 2024, Straits Trading generated cash and bank balances of SGD476.4m. STC continues to generate positive cash from operations.

Rio Tinto/Arcadium: Trading Wide Ahead Of 23rd Dec Vote

By David Blennerhassett

Back on the 9th October, Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU) reached an agreement to buy Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU/ALTM US) for US$5.85/share (~A$8.70/share), a ~90% premium to undisturbed.
The proxy statement is now out, with a Scheme Meeting scheduled for 23 December. The transaction is expected to close in mid-2025. The long stop is the 9th October 2025.
Trading wide-ish at a gross spread of 11.9%, reflecting the timing to secure regulatory approvals – notably from China – as opposed the Offer Price being viewed as opportunistic.

The Drill: Commodities post Trump election

By Ulrik Simmelholt

The Drill: Could nuclear be the next Trump bet?
This week’s The Drill examines commodities in the aftermath of Trump’s election, where calm has begun to return as risks were initially overestimated.
Nuclear energy is likely an underappreciated theme in the new Trump administration, while tariff threats appear overblown.

Solaris Resources: Showing Canada the Middle Finger

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

Solaris Resources (SLS CN) announced sweeping changes to its management and ties to Canada. It will also spin-off some of its exploration targets in a new company.
While its listing will remain in Canada for now, its physical presence in the country will cease and operations will be run out of Switzerland, Ecuador and Peru.
The shake-up is an answer to the Canadian government’s decision earlier this year blocking Chinese Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) from making an investment in Solaris.

Vicat Sa (VCTP.PA) – Thursday, Aug 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Vicat is a mid-sized global cement, aggregates, and ready-mix concrete operator with operations in 12 countries, primarily in developed markets.
Despite its strong presence in the industry, Vicat has traditionally traded at a discount compared to its European peers, but the discount has widened significantly in recent years.
With a solid balance sheet and attractive valuation metrics, Vicat’s equity is currently trading at historically cheap levels, presenting a potential investment opportunity for investors.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Ovintiv Inc.: Increased Production Efficiency & Cost Management Driving Our Bullishness! – Major Drivers

Ovintiv Inc. showcased robust operational and financial performance in its 2024 third-quarter results, underscoring both strengths and areas for cautious consideration.
The company reported net earnings of $507 million, equivalent to $1.92 per share, along with cash flow of $978 million, or $3.70 per share, which surpassed consensus expectations.
This was primarily attributed to production exceeding the upper end of guidance ranges for all product categories, coupled with cost efficiency driving performance.

Sintana Energy Inc. (TSX-V: SEI): Pure Play on the World’s Exploration Hotspot

By Auctus Advisors

~11 high impact appraisal/exploration wells will be drilled on various licences in Namibia over the coming months.
This is very material and is expected to attract the attention of investors.
Sintana provides exposure to three out of the six licences with high impact drilling.

Petrobras: Revolutionizes Leasing Strategy with Bold Cash Flow Neutrality Move – Here’s what It Means for Investors! – Major Drivers

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A., commonly known as Petrobras, has reported its Q3 2024 results, outlining several key operational and financial highlights.
On the operational front, Petrobras continues to make significant strides in its exploration and production activities.
The company has successfully started operations on two FPSOs (Floating Production Storage and Offloading), namely Maria Quitéria and Marechal Duque de Caxias, with further developments expected in the Búzios field through the Almirante Tamandaré FPSO.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief Financials: NU Holdings, China Vanke and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

Nubank (NU US) – Gravity’s Pull and Key Business Factors
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

Nubank (NU US) – Gravity’s Pull and Key Business Factors

By Victor Galliano

We take a more nuanced view on Nubank; the stock has corrected 16%+ from its high and, despite 28% YoY loan book growth, it has organically generated capital in 3Q24
Although Nubank is a digital bank success story, increased competition, especially from other fintechs, and a further deterioration in credit quality remain key business challenges going forward
Its recent share price correction and narrowing valuation gap leads us to recommend reducing short positions but, on balance, we remain sellers of Nubank; we stay positive on Bradesco

Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia

In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Gajah Tunggal, ReNew Energy, Adani Green Energy, Bharti Airtel, UPL Limited
Treasuries fell yesterday, with yields up 1-3 bps across the curve following a soft auction of 20Y notes.
The yield on the 2Y UST rose 3 bps to 4.32%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 1 bp at 4.41%.

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Nov 22

Daily Brief Consumer: FineToday Holdings Co Ltd, LG Energy Solution, DigiPlus Interactive , PDD Holdings, Trip.com, Sadot Group , Amer Sports , Honasa Consumer and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case
FineToday Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Growth and Margins Have Wavered
LG Chem’s Tax Alarm: Pillar Two Tax Could Soar Next Year + LGES Block Deal on the Horizon
DigiPlus (PLUS PM): Brazil License And CasinoPlus Acquisition Game Changing Catalysts For The Future
PDD (PDD US): 3Q24, Focuses on Growth, But Not Profit Margin
[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Domestic Story Back in Focus
SDOT: Sadot Group reports 3rd quarter 2024 financial and operating results which showed strong growth in commodity related revenues.
Pinduoduo: Behind Its Efficiency Edge
Amer Sports (AS US): An Engine for Anta Sports (2020 HK)
Mamaearth’s Inventory Issue Could Be Bigger and Long Lasting

FineToday Holdings (289A JP) IPO: The Bull Case

FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) is a Japanese personal care business seeking to raise up to US$500 million. It will be listed on 17 December.
FineToday has four product categories: Hair care, Skin care, Body care, and others. Hair care is the largest category, accounting for 49.0% of 9M24 revenue.
The bull case rests on return to revenue growth, three-pronged growth strategy, top-quartile profitability and top-tier FCF generation.

FineToday Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Growth and Margins Have Wavered

CVC Capital is aiming to raise over US$500m, via selling some of its stake in FineToday Holdings Co Ltd (289A JP) in Japan.
FineToday (FT) is a beauty and personal care company in Asia offering a range of products, including hair care, skin care and body care products.
In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

LG Chem’s Tax Alarm: Pillar Two Tax Could Soar Next Year + LGES Block Deal on the Horizon

The local market’s buzzing that LG Chem could face a 200-300 billion KRW tax hit from Pillar Two next year, with LGES ramping up U.S. production.
LG Chem may be reconsidering its plan to sell 2% of its LGES stake, dropping ownership below 80%, shifting the tax burden to LGES instead of itself.
Flagging this now—LG Chem’s tax burden looms. Consider shorting LGES or a long-short with LG Chem, plus prep for the 2T KRW block deal with the pre-disclosure process.

DigiPlus (PLUS PM): Brazil License And CasinoPlus Acquisition Game Changing Catalysts For The Future

By Sameer Taneja

DigiPlus Interactive (PLUS PM) presented PSE Star investor day yesterday and briefly analyzed two game-changing catalysts from the call: a) CasinoPlus acquisition and b) Brazil license.
The expected TAM associated with e-games/Bingo in Brazil is 250 bn pesos (4 bn USD), compared to the Philippines, which is currently cycling at 160 bn pesos (Q3 PAGCOR data).
The stock trades at 7.8x FYPE with 15% of the market cap in cash and a 3.8% dividend yield (30% payout ratio) with a seasonal uptick in Q4 FY24.

PDD (PDD US): 3Q24, Focuses on Growth, But Not Profit Margin

By Ming Lu

In 3Q24, PDD released strong revenue growth, but a flat margin.
We believe, in 2025, PDD will continue to focus on growth rather than profit.
We conclude an upside of 43% and a price target of US$167 for 2025. Buy.

[Trip.com (TCOM US, BUY, TP US$74) Target Price Change]: C3Q24 Review: Domestic Story Back in Focus

TCOM reported C3Q24 revenue 1.4%/1.6% higher than our est./cons., non-GAAP operating income is 12.5%/5.4% higher than our est./cons., mainly due to strong domestic sales and efficient cost control.
We expect revenue growth to accelerate in 4Q24 and 2025,backed by domestic travel recovery and steady overseas expansion.AI powered cost saving bringing extra leverage in margin is an additional positive.
We keep the stock as BUY rating and raise TP to US$74/ADS.

SDOT: Sadot Group reports 3rd quarter 2024 financial and operating results which showed strong growth in commodity related revenues.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

In late 2022, the company began its evolution from a consumer-focused, U.S. restaurant business into a global, food-focused organization with two distinct business units.
The company’s largest operating unit is Sadot Agri-Foods, which is a vertically integrated international food supply chain company engaged in trading and shipping sustainable food and commodities such as soybeans, wheat and corn.
Sadot’s legacy restaurant business is currently in the process of being divested.

Pinduoduo: Behind Its Efficiency Edge

By Eric Chen

We compared similar growth stage of Alibaba to Pinduoduo, when GMV of both platforms increase from RMB1 trillion to RMB4 trillion, to facilitate better understanding of efficiency edge of Pinduoduo.
Contrary to consensus, Pinduoduo didn’t do better than Alibaba on OPEX (advertising expenditure in particular), but it did extract much greater value from the ecosystem via significantly higher take-rate.
The findings highlight how Pinduoduo aggregate user traffic at surprisingly high cost to beef up merchant competition in terms of cost optimization and user acquisition, with Pinduoduo reaping greatest value.

Amer Sports (AS US): An Engine for Anta Sports (2020 HK)

By Osbert Tang, CFA

Contribution from Amer Sports (AS US) will rise to 5.1%, 7.2%, and 8.9% of Anta Sports Products (2020 HK)‘s earnings in FY24-26, making it increasingly important.
Amer turned around sharply YoY in 3Q24 with a net profit of US$55.8m. Its gross margin sustained an uptrend, with excellent potential for business growth in Greater China.
Positive guidance on FY25 outlook with a low-double-digit-to-mid-teens level revenue growth, further expansion in operating margin, and continuous cuts in net finance costs.

Mamaearth’s Inventory Issue Could Be Bigger and Long Lasting

All India Consumer Products Distributors Federation (AICPDF) has again raised concerns about Mamaearth, claiming that distributors and retailers are stuck with around INR 300 crore worth of unsold products.
The quantum inventory concern that distributors are raising is almost 5x of what Honasa has taken the hit.
This could bring some serious repercussions on the company’s working capital and growth plans

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Nov 22

Daily Brief Industrials: Mitsui Matsushima, Shinsung Delta Tech, Adani Enterprises, Hyosung Heavy Industries Corp, S.F. Holding, Teco Electric & Machinery, Sunrun Inc, Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Sanyo Trading, Full Truck Alliance and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason
KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 December Rejig Lineup
Adani Group’s Indictment: Bribery, Fraud, and the Global Fallout
KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Adds in Line; Couple of Deletes Are Surprises
SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation
Asian Dividend Gems: Teco Electric & Machinery
Sunrun Inc.: An Insight Into Its Inflation Reduction Act & Bipartisan Support & Other Major Drivers
Adani Ports – Event Flash – US Charges Gautam Adani And 2 AGEL Executives – Lucror Analytics
Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Conservative FY9/25 Guidance with Potential Avenues to Enhance Returns
Full Truck Alliance Q324 Results: Great Numbers, But Limited Upside Here | BUY Closer to US$8

[JAPAN Activism]: Murakami Target Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) Getting Sold Down For a Reason

Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) was trading ¥2,800-3,200 earlier this year before Murakami-san bought a large stake. All the news of coal shut down and cash pile were in the price.
After he bought, the stock popped. It fell back, went sideways in a range, and for 5 weeks has been falling in a straight line.
There’s a reason for that. But it may not be a great reason. And the stock is in a great place.

KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 December Rejig Lineup

KOSPI 200 & KOSDAQ 150 Dec reshuffle looks set—official lineup drops post-close today.
Passive flows for KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 are estimated at 40T KRW and 3.5T KRW, based on typical flow sizes until the effective date.
These predictions combine my sim results with reliable local intel. The accuracy’s solid enough to start pulling the trigger on trades.

Adani Group’s Indictment: Bribery, Fraud, and the Global Fallout

Gautam Adani and executives indicted in U.S. for bribery, fraud, and obstructing justice tied to renewable energy projects worth billions.
Allegations spotlight governance risks, promoter-driven models, and transparency issues in Indian conglomerates, threatening investor trust in Adani Group and renewable energy sectors.
Adani Group issued media statement saying that charges in indictment are baseless and denied.

KOSPI200 Index Rebalance: Adds in Line; Couple of Deletes Are Surprises

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

There will be 4 additions and 5 deletions for the Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the next rebalance to be implemented at the close on 12 December.
The 4 adds are exactly in line with our forecast but a couple of the deletions are surprises. Those two names were close deletes though.
The are some large shorts on a few deletes and there could be covering over the next few weeks as borrows are recalled and as the stocks drop.

SF Holding HKEx Listing: Peer Comparison and Valuation

Chinese logistics service provider SF Holding has filed for a listing on HKEx and seeks to raise HK$6.2bn (US$795m) through the issuance of 170m shares (3.4% of outstanding shares).
The listing is priced at HK$32.3-36.3 per share, as expected at a 20-29% discount to the last closed price of SF Holding’s A-Shares on 18th November.
Our valuation analysis suggests that SF Holding’s HK offering is attractive at the lower end of the indicative IPO price range.

Asian Dividend Gems: Teco Electric & Machinery

Teco Electric & Machinery (1504 TT) is one of the leading companies in Taiwan that specialize in electrical machinery and industrial automation.
Teco Electric & Machinery provides high dividend payout and solid dividend yield. From 2020 to 2023, the company’s dividend payout and dividend yield averaged 72.9% and 4.6%, respectively.
The company is one of the beneficiaries from the need to upgrade the global energy distribution and storage networks to support the higher usage of AI in the coming years.

Sunrun Inc.: An Insight Into Its Inflation Reduction Act & Bipartisan Support & Other Major Drivers

Sunrun’s third-quarter earnings report for 2024 presents an intricate picture of the company’s operational and financial landscape amid both progress and challenges in the renewable energy sector.
On the positive side, Sunrun achieved a significant milestone by reaching over one million customers, marking a substantial increase in its customer base.
The company’s focus on expanding its storage offerings is noteworthy, with 60% of new customers opting for storage packages, a notable rise from the previous year’s 33%.

Adani Ports – Event Flash – US Charges Gautam Adani And 2 AGEL Executives – Lucror Analytics

The US indictment of key executives is a material credit negative for the Adani Group, with the allegations being more serious than those from Hindenburg Research’s short-sell report in January 2023.
In the near term, the US indictment is likely to constrain the group’s access to financing, particularly in the offshore market.
We note that the Justice Department’s charges are directed at the individual executives, not at Adani Green Energy or other group entities.

Sanyo Trading (3176 JP) – Conservative FY9/25 Guidance with Potential Avenues to Enhance Returns

By Astris Advisory Japan

Firm results with a reserved outlook – Q1- 4FY9/24 results were ahead of guidance and highlighted that Q4 FY9/24 trading was in line with expectations, in contrast to a strong start to the year.
The company made positive developments in improving the sales mix in the Chemicals and Overseas Subsidiaries segments and has increased FY9/24 DPS to ¥55 from the previously guided ¥45, which was a positive surprise.
Guidance for FY9/25 appears to be conservative in our view. Nevertheless, it telegraphs a slowdown in earnings momentum and mixed earnings visibility with an expected slowdown from life science activity at subsidiary SCRUM Inc., balanced with contributions from large projects in the wood biomass-related business.

Full Truck Alliance Q324 Results: Great Numbers, But Limited Upside Here | BUY Closer to US$8

By Daniel Hellberg

Q324 revenue growth exceeded guidance, rising 33.9% Y/Y vs guidance of 22-25%
Improved revenue mix and effective OpEx control contributed to higher margins
Now close to US$10/ADS, we would wait for an opportunity to buy closer to US$8

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Nov 22

Daily Brief Health Care: Saint Bella, QuidelOrtho , Roche Holding , Shield Therapeutics, FibroBiologics, OSE Immuno, Bangkok Dusit Medical Services and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Saint Bella Pre-IPO: Rapid Growth but Facing Birth-Rate Headwinds
QuidelOrtho Corporation: Its Diverse Revenue Streams Surge – Discover the Lab Innovations Powering Growth! – Major Drivers
Roche CEO: Future of cancer treatment, AI in Medicine and Trial Challenges
Hardman & Co Investor Forum Research on Shield Therapeutics (STX): Proactive cash management to cashflow-breakeven
FBLG: On Target to Initiate Phase 1/2 Trial in 2025
OSE Immunotherapeutics – Full Lusvertikimab results reflect potential in UC
Bangkok Dusit Medical Services (BDMS TB): Both Thai and Foreign Patient Drive Growth, Margins Expand

Saint Bella Pre-IPO: Rapid Growth but Facing Birth-Rate Headwinds

By Nicholas Tan

Saint Bella (SAINT HK) is looking to raise up to US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
It operates the second largest and fastest growing postpartum care and recovery service in China, as per Frost & Sullivan. It operates an extensive network of 59 premium postpartum centers.
In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

QuidelOrtho Corporation: Its Diverse Revenue Streams Surge – Discover the Lab Innovations Powering Growth! – Major Drivers