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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: Korea Zinc, Tapex Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Insights on the Odds of MBK Ramping up the Tender Price by 20%
  • Sung Woo IPO Preview


Insights on the Odds of MBK Ramping up the Tender Price by 20%

By Sanghyun Park

  • MBK can cut their target volume to 12% and, with 2 trillion won, raise the tender price to ₩800,000, leaving them a 20% cushion.
  • MBK’s tight schedule aims to hit the 6.98% target while minimizing price volatility and market risk by shortening the offer window.
  • MBK plans to sweeten the deal by about 20%, similar to Hankook, aiming for a 6.98% target with a 20% price hike from the start.

Sung Woo IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Sung Woo is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSDAQ in October 2024. Founded in 1992, Sung Woo produces components for cylindrical rechargeable battery, energy storage system, and automotive. 
  • The IPO price range is from 25,000 won to 29,000 won. According to the bankers’ valuation, the expected market cap is 376 billion won to 436 billion won. 
  • The book building for the institutional investors will be conducted from 10 to 16 October. The lead underwriter of this IPO is Korea Investment & Securities. 

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Daily Brief India: JM Financial, P N Gadgil Jewellers, Max Healthcare Institute, Sagility India and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • JM Financial: An Undervalued Gem Poised for Breakout Growth
  • P N Gadgil Jewellers IPO Trading- Decent Anchor, Strong Insti Demand
  • Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Continues to Strengthen Presence in North India
  • Sagility India Pre-IPO – Healthcare-Tech Exposure Although Alarming Concentration Risks to Watch For


JM Financial: An Undervalued Gem Poised for Breakout Growth

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • JM Financial has decadal experience of being the powerhouse of financial services giant. 
  • The company has been a bad capital allocator for the years and hence could not participate in the mega bull run.  
  • What makes it interesting is a company is changing its strategy of capital allocation while cherry on the cake is attractive valuations and promoter buying.

P N Gadgil Jewellers IPO Trading- Decent Anchor, Strong Insti Demand

By Akshat Shah

  • P N Gadgil Jewellers (1742652D IN) raised around US$130m in its India IPO. 
  • It is an Indian organized jewellery player with product offerings which include traditional as well as modern and functional jewellery designs, in gold, diamond, silver and platinum.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuation. In this note, we talk about trading dynamics.

Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Continues to Strengthen Presence in North India

By Tina Banerjee

  • Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) to acquire controlling stake in Jaypee Healthcare (JHL), which owns 3 hospitals in Uttar Pradesh, including the renowned 500-beds Jaypee Hospital, Noida.
  • JHL reported revenue of INR4.21B and EBITDA of INR70M in FY24. With an EV of INR16.6B, the deal values JHL at EV/EBITDA of 23.7x, which seems reasonable.
  • This acquisition will significantly enhance Max Healthcare’s network and strengthen its leadership position in NCR, a region which is home to around 46M people.

Sagility India Pre-IPO – Healthcare-Tech Exposure Although Alarming Concentration Risks to Watch For

By Clarence Chu

  • Sagility India (2058883D IN) is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Sagility India is a pure-play healthcare focused solutions and services provider to Payers  and Providers.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Daily Brief Singapore: Sembcorp Industries and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Net institutional inflows into Singapore stocks continue


Net institutional inflows into Singapore stocks continue

By Geoff Howie

  • Net institutional inflows into Singapore stocks continue Institutions were net buyers of Singapore stocks over the five trading sessions spanning Sep 6 to 13, with S$523 million of net institutional inflow, following the S$328 million in net institutional inflow for the preceding five sessions.
  • Eight of the stocks also led the net institutional inflow over the preceding five sessions, with SATS and Singapore Airlines the exceptions.

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Daily Brief United States: Corn Active Contract, Intel Corp, Ingredion Inc, Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Cadrenal Therapeutics , Singular Genomic Systems, 23andMe Holding Co, Squarespace and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Commodities: Agricultural Markets Update – set for a seasonal recovery ahead
  • Intel’s Make-or-Break Moment: How the U.S. Government is Fighting to Save America’s Chip Giant
  • Ingredion: Innovations Redefining the Taste and Texture of Modern Food
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/37] Henry Hub Inched Up on Production Cuts Amid Hurricane Francine
  • US Rig Count Rises for First Time in Five Weeks as Oil and Gas Rigs Increase
  • Cadrenal Therapeutics Inc – September 16, 2024
  • Singular Genomics: A Balanced Acquisition Opportunity for Deerfield But At What Value?
  • Inside the 23andMe Buyout Rumors: Will Anne Wojcicki Take the Company Private?
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/37] WTI Crude Rises as Hurricane Impact Offsets Demand Concerns
  • Permira’s $7.2 Billion Bet on Squarespace: What Makes it an Attractive Acquisition?


Global Commodities: Agricultural Markets Update – set for a seasonal recovery ahead

By At Any Rate

  • Geopolitical risks are resurfacing in grain and oilseed markets
  • Weather-related risks are impacting agricultural markets, particularly in the US and South America
  • US grain export demand is strong, but dry conditions may lower yield potential and delay planting in South America, causing prices to rise

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Intel’s Make-or-Break Moment: How the U.S. Government is Fighting to Save America’s Chip Giant

By Baptista Research

  • Intel Corporation, once the unchallenged leader in the semiconductor space, has recently found itself in a precarious position.
  • With its stock prices plummeting and revenues falling, Intel is struggling to regain its footing in a market dominated by foreign giants like TSMC and Samsung.
  • The U.S. government, through multiple initiatives and significant financial commitments, has stepped in to rescue the beleaguered company, seeing it as crucial to both national security and economic competitiveness.

Ingredion: Innovations Redefining the Taste and Texture of Modern Food

By Pyari Menon

  • Innovation trends and patent filings within the food industry saw significant upswing over the year in the areas of natural ingredients and methods to manufacture vegan proteins.
  • Ingredion Ingredion Inc (INGR US) has a leadership position in  the fast growing Clean Label, Sugar Reduction and Plant-Based Protein Technologies
  • On a relative basis the stock despite better profitability metrics trades at a discount to the country-sector median and on an absolute basis at about 20% discount to FV.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/37] Henry Hub Inched Up on Production Cuts Amid Hurricane Francine

By Suhas Reddy

  • US natural gas prices inched by 1.3% for the week ending 13/Sep, as the uptrend moderated following the impact of Hurricane Francine. Production cuts lifted prices last week.   
  • Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.45 (13/Sep) from 1.19 the previous week as put volumes rose by 45.4% WoW, while call volumes grew by 19.2%.
  • Put volume and OI surged for contracts expiring on 25/Sep, Oct, and Nov. Call OI rose for expiries on Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar.

US Rig Count Rises for First Time in Five Weeks as Oil and Gas Rigs Increase

By Suhas Reddy

  • US oil and gas rig count rose by eight to 590 for the week ending 13/Sep, the first increase in five weeks and the largest weekly gain in a year.
  • US oil rig count increased by five to 488 after staying flat for three straight weeks. Gas rigs rose by three to 97, marking its first increase in four weeks.
  • For the week ending 13/Sep, US energy producers added three rigs each in Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Wyoming. Conversely, they cut two rigs each in California and Pennsylvania.

Cadrenal Therapeutics Inc – September 16, 2024

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • We are initiating coverage of Cadrenal Therapeutics, Inc. (CVKD) with a valuation of $30.00.
  • Cadrenal is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company developing tecarfarin, a novel oral and reversible anticoagulant intended to prevent deaths due to blood clots in patients with rare cardiovascular conditions, including those with left ventricular assist devices (LVADs), end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) with atrial fibrillation (AFib), and mechanical heart valves with difficult to control time in therapeutic range (TTR).
  • The company will be meeting with the FDA to discuss the design of a Phase 3 clinical trial of tecarfarin in patients with LVADs. Cadrenal has also been in discussion with Abbott, the maker of the only LVAD for sale in the U.S., regarding the Phase 3 trial, which we anticipate initiating in the first half of 2025.

Singular Genomics: A Balanced Acquisition Opportunity for Deerfield But At What Value?

By Baptista Research

  • Singular Genomics Systems, Inc. stands at an interesting crossroads with the recent acquisition interest shown by Deerfield Management.
  • Known for its innovative approach in genomics, specifically its G4® Sequencing Platform and the upcoming G4X™ Spatial Sequencer, Singular Genomics has garnered attention in the competitive genomics space.
  • Despite its modest financial performance, with only $0.7 million in Q2 revenue and a negative gross profit, its cutting-edge technology and increasing customer interest make it a potentially valuable asset.

Inside the 23andMe Buyout Rumors: Will Anne Wojcicki Take the Company Private?

By Baptista Research

  • 23andMe, the renowned genetic testing and health data company, has recently garnered significant attention with its co-founder and CEO, Anne Wojcicki, expressing openness to considering third-party acquisition offers.
  • This comes on the heels of her ongoing efforts to take the company private, despite the board’s rejection of her initial proposal.
  • With a combination of promising proprietary assets and a shaky financial trajectory, 23andMe finds itself at a crossroads.

[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/37] WTI Crude Rises as Hurricane Impact Offsets Demand Concerns

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures gained 1.45% for the week ending 13/Sep, as Hurricane Francine offset demand concerns. The smaller-than-expected build in US crude inventories aided in the rebound.
  • WTI options Put/Call volume ratio increased to 1.30 (13/Sep) from 1.17 the week prior as call volume fell 36.6% WoW while put volume fell by 29.9%.
  • WTI OI PCR dipped to 0.76 for the week ending 13/Sep from 0.78 on 06/Sep. Call OI rose 7.6% WoW and put OI picked up by 4.7%.

Permira’s $7.2 Billion Bet on Squarespace: What Makes it an Attractive Acquisition?

By Baptista Research

  • Squarespace, a leading platform in website design and digital services, has attracted attention from private equity firm Permira with a revised buyout bid of $46.50 per share, valuing the deal at $7.2 billion.
  • While this offer comes after concerns from proxy advisory firm ISS that the initial sale process undervalued the company, Permira’s renewed interest signals a strong belief in Squarespace’s long-term growth potential.
  • Squarespace presents an attractive opportunity given its strong financial performance, with a 19% year-over-year revenue increase and a growing base of over 4.9 million subscriptions.

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Daily Brief China: Midea Group Co Ltd A, Tencent, Hengan International Group, Geely Auto, Orient Overseas International, Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, Samvardhana Motherson Automotive Systems Group BV and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Midea Group H Share Listing (300 HK): Trading Debut
  • Midea A/H Listing – Strong Demand for Quality Asset, Index Flows Could Help in the near Term
  • China Consumption Weekly (16 Sep 2024): Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, Kuai, Hive Box
  • Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 13)
  • Geely (175 HK): Sales Volume Accelerated in August
  • Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Don’t Overlook Its Yield, Backed by Net Cash
  • Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) – Share Price Is at Risk of Correction
  • Morning Views Asia: Meituan, Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd


Midea Group H Share Listing (300 HK): Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) priced its H Share at HK$54.80 to raise HK$31,014 million (US$4.0 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
  • The H Share listing price implies an AH discount of 21.4% at the A Share price of RMB63.51. This compares to Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)‘s AH discount of 13.8%.
  • Futu grey market data shows that the H Shares closed 5.1% higher at HK$57.60. Our valuation analysis suggests that the H Share listing price is attractive.

Midea A/H Listing – Strong Demand for Quality Asset, Index Flows Could Help in the near Term

By Sumeet Singh

  • Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) raised around US$4.6bn in its H-share listing (including over-allocation), after the deal was upsized.
  • Midea Group is one of the world’s largest home appliance manufacturing companies with a presence in over 200 countries. Its A-shares have been listed since 2013.
  • We have covered the deal background in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

China Consumption Weekly (16 Sep 2024): Alibaba, Tencent, JD.com, Kuai, Hive Box

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba’s Taobao and Tmall apps decide to accept WeChat Pay, the online payment way from Tencent.
  • JD announced that it will raise employee salaries up to 20 months within two years.
  • Hive Box, the market dominator of parcel locker in China, submitted its IPO proposal.

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 13)

By David Mudd

  • Hong Kong Conglomerate Sector is showing renewed strength with Materials and Energy under pressure.  HK market 30 day volatility at 5 year low as market continues to de-risk.
  • Hengan International Group (1044 HK) chart broke down from its Descending Triangle pattern after reporting its 1H24 results. J&T Global Express (1519 HK) broke down from its double bottom pattern.
  • China Galaxy Securities (H) (6881 HK) price relative to the MSCI China index broke to a new high.  The company reported good results in a difficult environment for China brokers.

Geely (175 HK): Sales Volume Accelerated in August

By Ming Lu

  • The sales volume growth rate began to accelerate in August.
  • Geely’s revenue grew strongly by 39% YoY in 2Q24 and 47% YoY in 1H24.
  • The operating margin had improved YoY for the past one year and a half.

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Don’t Overlook Its Yield, Backed by Net Cash

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Orient Overseas International (316 HK) sits on decent yields of 12% for FY24 and 9.6% for FY25. Its net cash (66.2% of the share price) can support such dividends.
  • Despite the retreat from the recent peak, the spot freight rates are 9.7% and 145% higher than 1H24 and 2H23 respectively, pointing to better 2H24 earnings.
  • Operationally, it recorded the first YoY realised rate increase in 2Q24 after 6 quarters of consecutive decline. Its load factor also grew 2.3pp YoY in the quarter.

Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) – Share Price Is at Risk of Correction

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • On the surface, it seems that Hengrui’s performance growth in 24H1 is very high, but if excluding the upfront payment from Merck, the Company’s performance actually falls short of expectations.
  • Our forecast of revenue growth in 2024, 2025, 2026 (excluding Merck’s upfront payment) is 12% YoY, 8% YoY, 15% YoY, respectively. By 2026, Hengrui may still suffer from VBP.
  • Hengrui is overvalued and reasonable P/E is about 30 (or lower). We also don’t think Hengrui’s valuation should be higher than that of BeiGene. Current high valuation cannot be justified.

Morning Views Asia: Meituan, Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Japan: Seven & I Holdings, Nikkei 225, Freebit Co Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Couche-Tard’s Calculus
  • EQD | The Nikkei 225’s Trend Is Not Looking Good
  • Freebit Co Ltd (3843 JP): Q1 FY04/25 flash update


Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Couche-Tard’s Calculus

By Arun George

  • On 13 September, the Ministry of Finance of Japan added 7&I to a list of “core” designated companies based on results of voluntary inquiries to all listed companies.
  • Several media reports suggest that the change in 7&I’s designation to core would complicate the proposed acquisition by Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN). The core designation will not change Couche-Tard’s strategy.
  • The change to 7&I’s designation to core will paradoxically push Couche-Tard to firm up its revised offer. An undemanding valuation protects the downside of a no-deal situation.

EQD | The Nikkei 225’s Trend Is Not Looking Good

By Nico Rosti

  • Although the Nikkei 225 INDEX was rallying strong early in the year, from mid-March the rally started to falter, and after a fake recovery into July, it fell again, lower.
  • Should the index go lower from last week’s Close at 36581.76, the next paragraphs of this insight will indicate what price levels are strong support to buy.
  • The only doubt we have is that the index’s overall trend does not look good. A correction to 33000 (or lower) is a possibilitya negative YEARLY performance.

Freebit Co Ltd (3843 JP): Q1 FY04/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q1 FY04/25: Revenue JPY13.3bn (-5.3% YoY), Operating profit JPY1.5bn (-12.1% YoY), Recurring profit JPY1.5bn (-10.6% YoY), Net income JPY814mn (-5.7% YoY).
  • Business support services for MVNOs: Revenue JPY2.5bn (+4.9% YoY), Operating profit JPY325mn (-29.7% YoY).
  • 5G Homestyle services: Revenue JPY6.2bn (-18.2% YoY), Operating profit JPY769mn (-23.7% YoY), excluding fiscal year-end change, revenue +5.9% YoY, operating profit +26.0% YoY.

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Most Read: Midea Group Co Ltd A, Raysum Co Ltd, Auckland Intl Airport, Pro Medicus Ltd, Seven & I Holdings, Korea Zinc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Midea Group (300 HK): Priced at Top End; Offer Size Adj Option Exercise Would Ease Index Fast Entry
  • The New FEFTA List (With 7&I (3382) As “Core”) Is Not a Big Hurdle for Couche-Tard
  • Hulic (3003) Launches TOB to Take Out Raysum (8890) – HUGE Win for Good Governance And Activism
  • Auckland Airport (AIA NZ) Placement: Index Impact
  • MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes, Capping to Drive Flow
  • Midea Group H Share Listing (300 HK): Trading Debut
  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Couche-Tard’s Calculus
  • Pre-IPO Midea Group H Share – Here Are the Risks Behind
  • Auckland Airport Placement – Large NZ$1.4bn Raising, with ACC’s Overhang to Contend With
  • Insights on the Odds of MBK Ramping up the Tender Price by 20%


Midea Group (300 HK): Priced at Top End; Offer Size Adj Option Exercise Would Ease Index Fast Entry

By Brian Freitas

  • Media reports indicate that Midea Group (000333 CH) has priced its H-shares IPO at HK$54.8/share, the top of the range. That is a 19.85% discount to the A-shares.
  • Reports also indicate that the IPO was oversubscribed multiple times with Hillhouse and GIC putting in large orders. That could result in the Offer Size Adjustment Option being exercised.
  • The exercise of the Offer Size Adjustment Option will take the IPO raise to HK$31bn (US$3.98bn) and index inclusion in some of the larger indices will become a lot easier.

The New FEFTA List (With 7&I (3382) As “Core”) Is Not a Big Hurdle for Couche-Tard

By Travis Lundy

  • On Friday 13 September, the Ministry of Finance of Japan released revisions to the list (Japanese, English) of company classifications under the Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act (FEFTA)
  • It appears 72 names were newly upgraded to “Core” (“3”), 21 newly listed companies (since the last list in Nov 2021) were labeled “3”, and six lost their Type3 designation. 
  • Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) saw breathless news articles Friday suggesting a foreign takeover became more difficult. Not really. 

Hulic (3003) Launches TOB to Take Out Raysum (8890) – HUGE Win for Good Governance And Activism

By Travis Lundy

  • The change in control of Raysum Co Ltd (8890 JP) has a complex backstory. But one week shy of two years ago, Oasis launched a buyout to own 65%.
  • The company had a strong MTMP. Oasis paid ¥1,700/share to own 65%. The MTMP came through, there was an offering, and it stayed near ¥3,000/share. 
  • Now Hulic Co Ltd (3003 JP) has come out with a Tender Offer to buy the company for ¥5,913/share. That’s a 94% premium and 3.5x what Oasis paid 2yrs ago.

Auckland Airport (AIA NZ) Placement: Index Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ) has announced an underwritten placement of NZ$1.2bn and a non-underwritten retail offer to raise NZ$200m.
  • The stock is trading near the low end of its range over the last few years and the 7% discount from the last close should attract investor interest.
  • We estimate passive trackers will need to buy around 13.5% of the placement shares coinciding with the settlement date on 20 September.

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: One Add, Two Deletes, Capping to Drive Flow

By Brian Freitas


Midea Group H Share Listing (300 HK): Trading Debut

By Arun George

  • Midea Group Co Ltd A (000333 CH) priced its H Share at HK$54.80 to raise HK$31,014 million (US$4.0 billion) in gross proceeds. The H Share will be listed tomorrow.
  • The H Share listing price implies an AH discount of 21.4% at the A Share price of RMB63.51. This compares to Haier Smart Home (6690 HK)‘s AH discount of 13.8%.
  • Futu grey market data shows that the H Shares closed 5.1% higher at HK$57.60. Our valuation analysis suggests that the H Share listing price is attractive.

Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): Core Designation Does Not Change Couche-Tard’s Calculus

By Arun George

  • On 13 September, the Ministry of Finance of Japan added 7&I to a list of “core” designated companies based on results of voluntary inquiries to all listed companies.
  • Several media reports suggest that the change in 7&I’s designation to core would complicate the proposed acquisition by Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN). The core designation will not change Couche-Tard’s strategy.
  • The change to 7&I’s designation to core will paradoxically push Couche-Tard to firm up its revised offer. An undemanding valuation protects the downside of a no-deal situation.

Pre-IPO Midea Group H Share – Here Are the Risks Behind

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • For the reasons why Midea is eager to IPO in HK, investors shouldn’t just look at the surface of its glory, but delve into the “real motives” behind capital operations.
  • The policy of subsidizing the trade-in of home appliances belongs to “early overdraft of demand” and is unsustainable. Valuation logic for the performance increment brought by such policy is P/B.
  • If Midea cannot achieve the expected breakthroughs in To B business or internationalization in 2025-2026 to hedge against the weak domestic business, Midea’s performance/valuation in following years would inevitable decline.

Auckland Airport Placement – Large NZ$1.4bn Raising, with ACC’s Overhang to Contend With

By Clarence Chu

  • Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ) is looking to raise NZ$1.4bn (US$863m) in its primary follow-on offering. The offering includes a NZ$1.2bn underwritten placement, together with a NZ$200m non-underwritten retail offer.
  • The underwritten placement alone is a large one for the stock to digest at 168 days of three month ADV.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Insights on the Odds of MBK Ramping up the Tender Price by 20%

By Sanghyun Park

  • MBK can cut their target volume to 12% and, with 2 trillion won, raise the tender price to ₩800,000, leaving them a 20% cushion.
  • MBK’s tight schedule aims to hit the 6.98% target while minimizing price volatility and market risk by shortening the offer window.
  • MBK plans to sweeten the deal by about 20%, similar to Hankook, aiming for a 6.98% target with a 20% price hike from the start.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine, Max Healthcare Institute, Cadrenal Therapeutics , Pacific Smiles, 23andMe Holding Co, Sagility India and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) – Share Price Is at Risk of Correction
  • Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Continues to Strengthen Presence in North India
  • Cadrenal Therapeutics Inc – September 16, 2024
  • Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU): Genesis’ Off-Market A$1.90/Share Offer
  • Inside the 23andMe Buyout Rumors: Will Anne Wojcicki Take the Company Private?
  • Sagility India Pre-IPO – Healthcare-Tech Exposure Although Alarming Concentration Risks to Watch For


Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) – Share Price Is at Risk of Correction

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • On the surface, it seems that Hengrui’s performance growth in 24H1 is very high, but if excluding the upfront payment from Merck, the Company’s performance actually falls short of expectations.
  • Our forecast of revenue growth in 2024, 2025, 2026 (excluding Merck’s upfront payment) is 12% YoY, 8% YoY, 15% YoY, respectively. By 2026, Hengrui may still suffer from VBP.
  • Hengrui is overvalued and reasonable P/E is about 30 (or lower). We also don’t think Hengrui’s valuation should be higher than that of BeiGene. Current high valuation cannot be justified.

Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Continues to Strengthen Presence in North India

By Tina Banerjee

  • Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) to acquire controlling stake in Jaypee Healthcare (JHL), which owns 3 hospitals in Uttar Pradesh, including the renowned 500-beds Jaypee Hospital, Noida.
  • JHL reported revenue of INR4.21B and EBITDA of INR70M in FY24. With an EV of INR16.6B, the deal values JHL at EV/EBITDA of 23.7x, which seems reasonable.
  • This acquisition will significantly enhance Max Healthcare’s network and strengthen its leadership position in NCR, a region which is home to around 46M people.

Cadrenal Therapeutics Inc – September 16, 2024

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • We are initiating coverage of Cadrenal Therapeutics, Inc. (CVKD) with a valuation of $30.00.
  • Cadrenal is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company developing tecarfarin, a novel oral and reversible anticoagulant intended to prevent deaths due to blood clots in patients with rare cardiovascular conditions, including those with left ventricular assist devices (LVADs), end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) with atrial fibrillation (AFib), and mechanical heart valves with difficult to control time in therapeutic range (TTR).
  • The company will be meeting with the FDA to discuss the design of a Phase 3 clinical trial of tecarfarin in patients with LVADs. Cadrenal has also been in discussion with Abbott, the maker of the only LVAD for sale in the U.S., regarding the Phase 3 trial, which we anticipate initiating in the first half of 2025.

Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU): Genesis’ Off-Market A$1.90/Share Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • After Crescent Capital ‘s National Dental Care’ (NDC) A$2.05/share Offer, by way of Scheme, failed on the 9 August. it was just a question of when Genesis re-loaded its Offer.
  • Genesis has now announced a A$1.90/share off-market Offer ( its 29 July A$1.90/share approach was a Scheme), conditional on a 90% minimum acceptance. Pricing falls within the IE’ fair value range.
  • Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU)‘s board previously gave unanimous support for NDC’s prior A$1.90/share Offer. The question is whether the 90% hurdle is met. I think it will.

Inside the 23andMe Buyout Rumors: Will Anne Wojcicki Take the Company Private?

By Baptista Research

  • 23andMe, the renowned genetic testing and health data company, has recently garnered significant attention with its co-founder and CEO, Anne Wojcicki, expressing openness to considering third-party acquisition offers.
  • This comes on the heels of her ongoing efforts to take the company private, despite the board’s rejection of her initial proposal.
  • With a combination of promising proprietary assets and a shaky financial trajectory, 23andMe finds itself at a crossroads.

Sagility India Pre-IPO – Healthcare-Tech Exposure Although Alarming Concentration Risks to Watch For

By Clarence Chu

  • Sagility India (2058883D IN) is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Sagility India is a pure-play healthcare focused solutions and services provider to Payers  and Providers.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Auckland Intl Airport, Orient Overseas International, Ads-Tec Energy and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Auckland Airport (AIA NZ) Placement: Index Impact
  • Auckland Airport Placement – Large NZ$1.4bn Raising, with ACC’s Overhang to Contend With
  • Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Don’t Overlook Its Yield, Backed by Net Cash
  • ADS-TEC Energy – Progressing to plan


Auckland Airport (AIA NZ) Placement: Index Impact

By Brian Freitas

  • Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ) has announced an underwritten placement of NZ$1.2bn and a non-underwritten retail offer to raise NZ$200m.
  • The stock is trading near the low end of its range over the last few years and the 7% discount from the last close should attract investor interest.
  • We estimate passive trackers will need to buy around 13.5% of the placement shares coinciding with the settlement date on 20 September.

Auckland Airport Placement – Large NZ$1.4bn Raising, with ACC’s Overhang to Contend With

By Clarence Chu

  • Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ) is looking to raise NZ$1.4bn (US$863m) in its primary follow-on offering. The offering includes a NZ$1.2bn underwritten placement, together with a NZ$200m non-underwritten retail offer.
  • The underwritten placement alone is a large one for the stock to digest at 168 days of three month ADV.
  • In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Don’t Overlook Its Yield, Backed by Net Cash

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Orient Overseas International (316 HK) sits on decent yields of 12% for FY24 and 9.6% for FY25. Its net cash (66.2% of the share price) can support such dividends.
  • Despite the retreat from the recent peak, the spot freight rates are 9.7% and 145% higher than 1H24 and 2H23 respectively, pointing to better 2H24 earnings.
  • Operationally, it recorded the first YoY realised rate increase in 2Q24 after 6 quarters of consecutive decline. Its load factor also grew 2.3pp YoY in the quarter.

ADS-TEC Energy – Progressing to plan

By Edison Investment Research

ADS-TEC supplies intelligent energy storage and management systems supporting the energy transition, including electric vehicle (EV) charging. While the EV rate of adoption has slowed, the H124 results (sales +107%) demonstrate the benefits of ADS-TEC’s broader end-market applications and corporate customer base. With a positive EBITDA in the period, the group appears to be approaching operational cash positive, which we see as marking the transition to a sustainable growth company.


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Korea Zinc, Latin Resources, Tapex Co, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, VAALCO Energy, Hot-Rolled Coil Steel Index Futures, Riley Exploration Permian and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Insights on the Odds of MBK Ramping up the Tender Price by 20%
  • Latin Resources (LRS AU)’s Scheme With Pilbara Minerals
  • Sung Woo IPO Preview
  • US Rig Count Rises for First Time in Five Weeks as Oil and Gas Rigs Increase
  • [US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/37] Henry Hub Inched Up on Production Cuts Amid Hurricane Francine
  • Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner
  • [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/37] WTI Crude Rises as Hurricane Impact Offsets Demand Concerns
  • VAALCO Energy, Inc. – Multiple Catalysts for Future Growth
  • Commodity Analysis – US Steel Coil Futures
  • Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. – Efficient Growth Results in High Free Cash Flow Conversion


Insights on the Odds of MBK Ramping up the Tender Price by 20%

By Sanghyun Park

  • MBK can cut their target volume to 12% and, with 2 trillion won, raise the tender price to ₩800,000, leaving them a 20% cushion.
  • MBK’s tight schedule aims to hit the 6.98% target while minimizing price volatility and market risk by shortening the offer window.
  • MBK plans to sweeten the deal by about 20%, similar to Hankook, aiming for a 6.98% target with a 20% price hike from the start.

Latin Resources (LRS AU)’s Scheme With Pilbara Minerals

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 15th August, lithium play Latin Resources (LRS AU) entered into a Scheme with significantly larger peer, Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU). Timing appears fortuitous. 
  • PLS is offering 0.07 new PLS shares for each LRS share held.  LRS shareholders will own ~6.4% of the combined entity. LRS’ largest shareholder, José Luis Manzano (7.9%), is supportive. 
  • The scrip terms back out an implied price of A$0.20/share or a 67% premium to last close. This is done. And trading accordingly. Expected implementation late November, early December.

Sung Woo IPO Preview

By Douglas Kim

  • Sung Woo is getting ready to complete its IPO in KOSDAQ in October 2024. Founded in 1992, Sung Woo produces components for cylindrical rechargeable battery, energy storage system, and automotive. 
  • The IPO price range is from 25,000 won to 29,000 won. According to the bankers’ valuation, the expected market cap is 376 billion won to 436 billion won. 
  • The book building for the institutional investors will be conducted from 10 to 16 October. The lead underwriter of this IPO is Korea Investment & Securities. 

US Rig Count Rises for First Time in Five Weeks as Oil and Gas Rigs Increase

By Suhas Reddy

  • US oil and gas rig count rose by eight to 590 for the week ending 13/Sep, the first increase in five weeks and the largest weekly gain in a year.
  • US oil rig count increased by five to 488 after staying flat for three straight weeks. Gas rigs rose by three to 97, marking its first increase in four weeks.
  • For the week ending 13/Sep, US energy producers added three rigs each in Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Wyoming. Conversely, they cut two rigs each in California and Pennsylvania.

[US Nat Gas Options Weekly 2024/37] Henry Hub Inched Up on Production Cuts Amid Hurricane Francine

By Suhas Reddy

  • US natural gas prices inched by 1.3% for the week ending 13/Sep, as the uptrend moderated following the impact of Hurricane Francine. Production cuts lifted prices last week.   
  • Henry Hub Put/Call volume ratio rose to 1.45 (13/Sep) from 1.19 the previous week as put volumes rose by 45.4% WoW, while call volumes grew by 19.2%.
  • Put volume and OI surged for contracts expiring on 25/Sep, Oct, and Nov. Call OI rose for expiries on Dec, Jan, Feb, and Mar.

Antofagasta (ANTO LN): An Initiation on a Mid-Sized Copper Miner

By Sameer Taneja


[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2024/37] WTI Crude Rises as Hurricane Impact Offsets Demand Concerns

By Suhas Reddy

  • WTI futures gained 1.45% for the week ending 13/Sep, as Hurricane Francine offset demand concerns. The smaller-than-expected build in US crude inventories aided in the rebound.
  • WTI options Put/Call volume ratio increased to 1.30 (13/Sep) from 1.17 the week prior as call volume fell 36.6% WoW while put volume fell by 29.9%.
  • WTI OI PCR dipped to 0.76 for the week ending 13/Sep from 0.78 on 06/Sep. Call OI rose 7.6% WoW and put OI picked up by 4.7%.

VAALCO Energy, Inc. – Multiple Catalysts for Future Growth

By Water Tower Research

  • VAALCO is an Africa-focused oil producer with a portfolio of short- and long-lead time development and exploration projects that could materially grow the reserve and production base over time.
  • The company owns positions in four African countries, including Egypt, Gabon, Côte d’Ivoire, and Equatorial Guinea. It also owns a position in Canada.
  • VAALCO has a long operating history in Africa and stations a dedicated country manager in each jurisdiction to foster close cooperative working relationships with the local authorities and partners. 

Commodity Analysis – US Steel Coil Futures

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • During the period May 24th, 2024 – August 23rd , 2024, a mixed trend was reflected in the prices of steel coil futures amid fluctuations.
  • During the period under consideration, there was an overall decrease in the price of steel coil futures.
  • The MA-20 was recorded to perform higher than MA-10 in the beginning of the period, but after that there were many fluctuations with the MA-20 ending up again the MA-10 line.

Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. – Efficient Growth Results in High Free Cash Flow Conversion

By Water Tower Research

  • Riley’s conventional asset base on the Northwest Shelf portion of the Permian Basin positions the company to efficiently allocate capital to grow the underlying reserve and production base while generating free cash flow that can be used to maintain a conservative balance sheet and support the common stock dividend.
  • Our modeling suggests that Riley could convert more than 50% of FY24/FY25 discretionary cash flow into free cash flow.
  • Our modeling suggests that estimated FY24/FY25 free cash flow provides more than 4.0x coverage of the current dividend 

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