Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Consumer: Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia, Yum China Holdings , Fila Holdings, Fast Retailing, Astra International, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Corn Active Contract, Euglena Co Ltd, Sprouts Farmers Market, Borgwarner Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Ace Hardware (ACES IJ) – New Aspirations in Place
  • Yum China (9987 HK): The Best Long-Term China Catering Play
  • Block Deal Sale of About 98 Billion Won Worth of Acushnet Holdings by Fila Holdings
  • Struggles in China Hurt Uniqlo’s Bottom Line
  • Astra International (ASII IJ) – Strength in Diversity
  • A New Type Of “Deemed Shareholding” Has Emerged!
  • Will Delayed La Niña Onset Fuel Weather Risks Firing up Corn Prices?
  • Euglena Co Ltd (2931 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update
  • Sprouts Farmers Market Inc.: Why Are They Expanding Store Footprint in Emerging Markets? – Major Drivers
  • BorgWarner Inc.: Electric Vehicle and Hybrid Technology Expansion Catalyzing Growth! – Major Drivers


Ace Hardware (ACES IJ) – New Aspirations in Place

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ) reported an impressive set of 1H2024 results with continuing momentum behind SSSG driven by promotional campaigns but margins remained stable at the same time.
  • The company continues to open new format stores and renovate existing ones. It has also introduced new private label brands to drive growth and will introduce 15% new SKUs. 
  • The company will be renamed PT Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia to reflect the separation from ACE US but we see the impact as minimal. Valuations remain attractive on 12.6x FY2025E PER.

Yum China (9987 HK): The Best Long-Term China Catering Play

By Eric Chen

  • We believe Yum China remains the best long-term China catering play. 2Q24 results highlight the resiliency and agility of its business model and management to navigate tough environment.
  • While cost optimization drove bottom-line beat, we share management’s view that it is not one-off exercise but will strengthen the company’s operation efficiency moat and market leadership.
  • Macro concerns are well known and fully priced in in our view. Otherwise investors won’t have the opportunity to own the name for low double-digit P/E.

Block Deal Sale of About 98 Billion Won Worth of Acushnet Holdings by Fila Holdings

By Douglas Kim

  • Fila Holdings announced that its subsidiary Magnus Holdings plans to sell a 1.8% stake in Acushnet Holdings in a block deal sale worth about 98 billion won. 
  • Our NAV valuation of Fila Holdings suggests an implied value per share of 49,192 won, representing 18.2% upside from current levels. Fila Holdings’ 51.9% stake in Acushnet Holdings.
  • The block deal sale of Acushnet Holdings by Magnus Holdings is likely to have a positive impact on Fila Holdings as it could result in higher capital returns to shareholders.

Struggles in China Hurt Uniqlo’s Bottom Line

By Caixin Global

  • Uniqlo Co. Ltd.’s strategy of raising prices in the face of rising costs has taken a toll on the Japanese clothing retailer’s bottom line in China due to growing competition and thriftier consumers.
  • The fast-fashion chain’s Greater China profit and revenue both fell in local currency terms during the March-May period, dragged down by poor performance on the Chinese mainland and in Hong Kong, according to earnings results released last month by its parent company, Fast Retailing Co. Ltd. The results did not provide specific earnings figures for the period.
  • Fast Retailing attributed the poor performance to lackluster consumer appetite, unseasonal weather and an insufficient product lineup to satisfy local customer needs.

Astra International (ASII IJ) – Strength in Diversity

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Astra International (ASII IJ) saw a slight decline in its core earnings in 1H2024, which was an admirable performance given the weakness in the auto market and commodities divisions.
  • Offsetting the weakness in autos, Astra saw strong performances from its financing businesses for 4W, 2W, heavy equipment, and consumer finance, which booked +8% YoY growth in 1H2024. 
  • Astra remains a key proxy for the overall Indonesian economy, with the diversity of its earnings exposure underpinning its resilience. Valuations are attractive, supported by a 9% FY2024E dividend yield. 

A New Type Of “Deemed Shareholding” Has Emerged!

By Aki Matsumoto

  • For first time in 30 years, the fund is back, matching the demand of companies that want to reduce cross-holdings immediately and companies that want more time to sell cross-holdings.
  • If the voting rights of cross-shareholdings contributed to the fund are retained, corporate governance will remain an issue until the fund’s investment is terminated.
  • In reviewing recently filed annual securities reports, we often see cases where cross-held shares in more closely related companies are contributed to retirement benefit trusts instead of being sold.

Will Delayed La Niña Onset Fuel Weather Risks Firing up Corn Prices?

By Srinidhi Raghavendra

  • Last El Niño was one of the strongest on record, and typically are followed by La Niña, but this transition has yet to occur. 
  • Latest ONI Reading and trend shows possibility of La Niña developing in August-October, could coincide with winter. 
  • Historically, adverse weather changes and high hurricane incidence are likely to spoil bearish bets against corn and lead to sustained price recovery.

Euglena Co Ltd (2931 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Sales increased to JPY23.6bn (+3.7% YoY), operating profit reached JPY348mn, recurring profit JPY309mn, and net loss JPY267mn.
  • Biofuels segment sales dropped to JPY306mn (-66.0% YoY), with a segment loss of JPY251mn, reflecting the pilot plant’s closure.
  • Revised FY12/24 forecast: sales JPY48.0bn (+3.3% YoY), adjusted EBITDA JPY3.8bn (-71.0% YoY), sales forecast lowered by JPY2.0bn.

Sprouts Farmers Market Inc.: Why Are They Expanding Store Footprint in Emerging Markets? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Sprouts Farmers Market’s second quarter 2024 results demonstrate both growth and resilience amidst varying market conditions.
  • The company reported a significant increase in sales—up 12% year-over-year to $1.9 billion, propelled by a robust 6.7% growth in comparable store sales.
  • Key drivers of this growth include increased e-commerce sales, which surged by 30%, and now constitute 14% of total sales, and the company’s strategic expansion through new stores.

BorgWarner Inc.: Electric Vehicle and Hybrid Technology Expansion Catalyzing Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • BorgWarner, a leading automotive supplier, presented its 2024 second-quarter earnings results and shared updates on operational strategies and future plans.
  • During the earnings call, they discussed financial performance, business outlook, significant product awards, and strategic restructuring.
  • For the second quarter of 2024, BorgWarner reported sales of approximately $3.6 billion, which was flat compared to the previous year but outperformed the industry’s modest production decline.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 2nd): Westgold Resourc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 2nd): Westgold Resourc, Seek, Paladin Energy, Fortescue, ANZ, Altium


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 2nd): Westgold Resourc, Seek, Paladin Energy, Fortescue, ANZ, Altium

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 2nd (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.4bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Westgold Resourc, Seek, Paladin Energy, Fortescue, ANZ, Altium.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

By Joe Jasper

  • We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
  • We’re shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
  • Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said “Japan’s TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse.”

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Surges on Jobs Data and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Surges on Jobs Data
  • China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 2-8, 2024
  • Earnings: ON, LSCC, RMBS, AMKR, ANET, AMD
  • Japan Morning Connection: 9984 JP, 8035 JP, 6525 JP
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/PDD US/JD US/3690 HK/700 HK/BILI US
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/1211 HK/LI US/NIO US/1810 HK/XPEV US/TCOM US/ATAT US/LKNCY US
  • # 43 India Insight: Reliance Offshore Financing, Adani QIP, Marico Diversify Market Presence


Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Surges on Jobs Data

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks rally after a drop in weekly jobless claims to 233,000, below expectations, providing a positive signal for the labor market
  • Tokyo Electron revised up its FY2024 net profit forecast by 31% to 478 billion yen, driven by strong AI-related demand for memory chips
  • INPEX will buy back up to 80 billion yen of shares, the highest ever, and increase its annual dividend by 12 yen to 86 yen

China Property Developers In Distress – Weekly News & Announcements Tracker | August 2-8, 2024

By Robert Ciemniak

  • This note is a weekly (select weeks on SK) curated selection of Chinese news articles and company announcements focused on developers in distress
  • We look for their deals, updates, specific project progress news (‘local signals’), as well as relevant local research commentaries about the market
  • We do not verify the underlying data or provide any opinion, we only select and summarize the information; See direct links to sources

Earnings: ON, LSCC, RMBS, AMKR, ANET, AMD

By Douglas O’Laughlin

  • This week will be a lightning-fast one. I need to cover a lot, so I’ll give high-level summaries instead of going deep unless necessary. I will be honest – it’s a bit scuffed, but if I don’t put it out, I’ll get further behind on semiconductor earnings.
  • On semiconductor beat on Chinese industrial strength. It looks cheap.
  • Lattice is likely stuffing the channel, and the divergence between AMD’s embedded and Lattice means their channel is worse off. Amkor saw real weakness in industrial, and that’s what made the guide miss. Arista had a clean beat; I think they are sandbagging forward revenue.

Japan Morning Connection: 9984 JP, 8035 JP, 6525 JP

By Andrew Jackson

  • ARM +11% after a broker upgrade yesterday will see Softbank Group (9984 JP) rebound sharply off heavily sold levels yesterday, despite its surprise Y500bn buyback.
  • Tech wide relief rally in the US sets the tone for a very strong day in Japan, helped by strong earnings by the likes of TEL (8035) and Kokusai (6525).
  • Jobs data saw leisure and powersports names in the US rally which should help the likes of Yamaha Motor (7272 JP) and KHI (7012 JP) rebound sharply also.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/PDD US/JD US/3690 HK/700 HK/BILI US

By Ying Pan

  • BABA US/PDD US/JD US: Douyin launches new merchant tool designed to avoid low-price competition (+/+/+)
  • BABA US/JD US: JD strategy change to focus on beauty products (-/+)
  • BABA US: Freshippo launches self-branded products on the Lazada. (/)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:981 HK/1347 HK/1211 HK/LI US/NIO US/1810 HK/XPEV US/TCOM US/ATAT US/LKNCY US

By Eric Wen

  • 981 HK/1347 HK: Semiconductor export growth remained robust in July (+/+)
  • 1211 HK/LI US/NIO US/1810 HK/XPEV US: 2024 week 31 EV makers started to bifurate .(/////////)
  • 1810 HK: Xiaomi’s smartphone unit volume sales in Japan grow triple-digit y-o-y in 2Q24 (+)

# 43 India Insight: Reliance Offshore Financing, Adani QIP, Marico Diversify Market Presence

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Reliance Industries obtained over $7 billion in offshore financing for capital expenditure and debt refinancing.
  • Adani Enterprises plans a $1 billion share sale via a Qualified Institutional Placement.
  • Marico resumes operations in Bangladesh after political unrest, diversify market presence.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Vanke and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , SK Hynix, Softbank Group, Tata Motors ADR, UPL Ltd, Wynn Macau Ltd


Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , SK Hynix, Softbank Group, Tata Motors ADR, UPL Ltd, Wynn Macau Ltd

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Money Forward (3994): A Must-Buy Amid Yen Volatility and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Money Forward (3994): A Must-Buy Amid Yen Volatility
  • TSMC’s Expansion Strategy: New Plants and Rising AI Demand Shape Future Growth
  • Korea Zinc: Impressive Capital Return Plans and a Big Price Gap Between Korea Zinc and Young Poong
  • Super Micro Computer (SMCI) May NOT Be the Next NVIDIA!
  • Terumo Corp (4543 JP): Stellar Performance in Q1; Cost Control Measures Are Bearing Fruits
  • [Earnings Review] Production Surge in Guyana and Permian Aids Exxon Beat Profit Estimates
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Aug-2024): Acer subs drive growth, boost resilience amid PC changes.
  • KYEC (2449.TT): In 2Q24, Revenue Exceeded Our Expectations, and GM, OPM, and EPS Surprised Us.
  • kopi-C with Oiltek’s CEO: ‘We’ve sailed through the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine war’
  • IPAR: New Line Additive to Growth


Money Forward (3994): A Must-Buy Amid Yen Volatility

By Mark Chadwick

  • Amidst the volatility in the Japanese yen, companies like Money Forward, with a strong domestic revenue base and minimal exposure to forex risk, present an attractive investment opportunity.
  • Despite broader market uncertainties, Money Forward continues to demonstrate impressive growth, with its corporate ARR surging by 38% YoY in the most recent quarter, signaling sustained momentum.
  • The recent agreement to divest 49% of its non-core B2C segment, Money Forward ME, underscores the significant undervaluation of its core operations. 

TSMC’s Expansion Strategy: New Plants and Rising AI Demand Shape Future Growth

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • TSMC’s new plants will increase its production capacity for 3-nm chips, aiming to triple output this year. Global market share stands at 18%.
  • Major tech companies’ increased AI investments are driving demand for TSMC’s advanced semiconductors, crucial for AI and machine learning applications. 
  • TSMC’s automotive solutions output is expected to grow at a 50% CAGR through 2024, addressing global chip shortages in the auto industry.

Korea Zinc: Impressive Capital Return Plans and a Big Price Gap Between Korea Zinc and Young Poong

By Douglas Kim

  • On 7 August, Korea Zinc (010130 KS) announced several impressive capital return plan that should help to increase shareholder value.
  • The separation of Korea Zinc between the Choi and Jang families has been in progress in the past several years. The exact timing of when this occurs remains uncertain. 
  • Our NAV Analysis of Young Poong is NAV per share of 470,065 won, representing a 52% upside from current levels. 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) May NOT Be the Next NVIDIA!

By Baptista Research

  • Super Micro Computer, Inc. has garnered attention with its strong financial performance in Q4 2024, reporting record revenue growth driven by its AI server and data center infrastructure solutions.
  • The company’s transition to direct liquid cooling (DLC) technology and AI-focused strategies have positioned it as a key player in the rapidly evolving technology landscape.
  • With a 143% year-over-year revenue growth to $5.31 billion, SMCI has demonstrated its capability to scale and meet the increasing demand for AI infrastructure.

Terumo Corp (4543 JP): Stellar Performance in Q1; Cost Control Measures Are Bearing Fruits

By Tina Banerjee

  • Terumo Corp (4543 JP) has reported record high quarterly revenue and profit in Q1FY25, thanks to strong demand across all the business segments, effects of pricing measures, and favorable Fx.
  • With the steady progress in profit improvement measures, Q1FY25 gross profit margin (53.3%) reached to its highest level since Q2FY22. Operating and net profit growth outpaced that of revenue.
  • Amid currency uncertainties and inflation, Terumo has maintained its full-year FY25 guidance issued in May. Growth will be driven by US and Europe owing to the sustained increase in demand.

[Earnings Review] Production Surge in Guyana and Permian Aids Exxon Beat Profit Estimates

By Suhas Reddy

  • Exxon Mobil’s Q2 revenue grew 12.2% YoY and net profit increased by 17.3%. Revenue missed estimates by 0.4% while net profit exceeded expectations by 6.2%. v
  • Exxon Mobil’s Q2 oil production hit a record high since the 1999 merger, driven by strong output in Guyana and the Permian basin.
  • Exxon Mobil expects full-year expenditures to total USD 28 billion, including USD 25 billion for ExxonMobil and USD 3 billion for Pioneer.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (09-Aug-2024): Acer subs drive growth, boost resilience amid PC changes.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Acer’s subsidiaries are driving growth, providing resilience and optimism in the face of shifts in the PC market.
  • China’s smartphone industry is experiencing a boom in the second quarter of 2024, indicating strong potential for growth.
  • A potential US ban on Chinese vehicle technology could deepen the technology rift with lasting effects, impacting various industries.

KYEC (2449.TT): In 2Q24, Revenue Exceeded Our Expectations, and GM, OPM, and EPS Surprised Us.

By Patrick Liao

  • King Yuan Electronics Co, Ltd. (2449 TT)‘s 2Q24 revenue/GM/OPM/EPS were NTD$9,035mn/40.5%/29.8%/NTD$2.2.
  • The main reasons of revenue growth shall be the AI aspects, especially the contribution from NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US).
  • For the upcoming 3Q24, we are keeping a relatively strong confidence of 5-10% growth rate for KYEC.

kopi-C with Oiltek’s CEO: ‘We’ve sailed through the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine war’

By Geoff Howie

  • A focus on innovation and adaptability has enabled Oiltek, a vegetable and edible oil process engineering company, to grow steadily, even amid global crises.
  • When Henry Yong joined Malaysia-based Oiltek in 2008 as its managing director, his priority was to hone its innovation. “We have diversified into refinery processes and engineering solutions for a wide variety of edible oils, including palm, sunflower and soybean oil, non-edible oils, renewable energy, such as biogas, biodiesel and feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel, and animal feed.

IPAR: New Line Additive to Growth

By Hamed Khorsand

  • PAR had previously issued its quarterly sales update making the second quarter results more of an update on how the business is shaping out for the remainder of the year. 
  • IPAR used the Q2 earnings call to disclose its intention to enter the luxury fragrance market with its own brand in 2025. Owning a brand is not new for IPAR.
  • The consumer continuing to purchase fragrances undisturbed should create the opportunity to grow sales in the second half of the year ahead of new launches scheduled for 2025.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief ECM: Ola Electric IPO Trading – Decent Anchor and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Ola Electric IPO Trading – Decent Anchor, Tepid Overall Demand
  • Paras Healthcare Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Suraksha Diagnostic Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • WeRide (WRD US) IPO: The Bull Case


Ola Electric IPO Trading – Decent Anchor, Tepid Overall Demand

By Sumeet Singh

  • Ola Electric managed to raise around US$734m in its India IPO.
  • Ola Electric Mobility is a vertically integrated pure EV player in India with manufacturing capabilities for EVs and EV components, including cells
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

Paras Healthcare Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Akshat Shah

  • Paras Healthcare Limited (0490145D IN) is looking to raise about US$180m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI, IIFL and Motilal Oswal.
  • Paras Healthcare is the fifth largest healthcare provider, in terms of bed capacity in North India, Bihar and Jharkhand, with an aggregate of 2,135 beds, as of March 31, 2024.
  • The company offers several clinical specialties across its hospitals including cardiac sciences, oncology, neuro sciences, gastro sciences and orthopedics and joint replacement.

Suraksha Diagnostic Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Ethan Aw

  • Suraksha Diagnostic (1481262D IN) is looking to raise up to US$230m in its upcoming India IPO. The deal will be run by ICICI Securities, Nuvama Wealth and SBI Capital.
  • Suraksha Diagnostic is a full-service and integrated diagnostic chain. It offers a one-stop integrated solution for pathology and radiology testing, and medical consultation services to its customers.
  • It has flagship central reference laboratory, eight satellite laboratories and 194 customer touchpoints, and 146 sample collection centres (primarily franchised) as of FY24, across certain states of India.

WeRide (WRD US) IPO: The Bull Case

By Arun George

  • WeRide (WRD US), a provider of autonomous driving products and services, seeks to raise between US$200 to US$300 million through a Nasdaq IPO.    
  • WeRide is the most commercially successful L4 autonomous driving company globally, measured by commercialization revenue in 2021, 2022 and 2023.
  • The bull case rests on a large TAM, strong product capabilities, near-term mass commercialization, articulation of a path to profitability, improving earnings quality and presence of blue-chip investors. 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: Barito Renewables Rolling Over – More To Come. Also Kyocera/KDDI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • StubWorld: Barito Renewables Rolling Over – More To Come. Also Kyocera/KDDI
  • KKR ¥8,800 Takeover of Fuji Soft (9749) – Details and Arb Grid
  • Trading Opportunities from the Rise of Sector Pairs Trading Using SSFs & MM Unwinding at Expiry
  • Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY8,800
  • Tata Motors (TTMT IN): Index Impact of DVR Cancellation
  • SK Innovation: Considering on Using Its Treasury Shares to Inject Capital into SK On
  • Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Sep 24: High-Impact F250 Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index


StubWorld: Barito Renewables Rolling Over – More To Come. Also Kyocera/KDDI

By David Blennerhassett


KKR ¥8,800 Takeover of Fuji Soft (9749) – Details and Arb Grid

By Travis Lundy

  • KKR has announced its previously leaked takeover of Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP). Two activists with 30+% between them have agreed to tender at ¥8,800.  
  • Given what the founder, crossholders, and other arbs own, this gets done easily. Congrats on the win to the activists. 
  • We will see more activism and more pressure on under-earning companies to go private to clean themselves up outside the public eye. Big opportunities for years.

Trading Opportunities from the Rise of Sector Pairs Trading Using SSFs & MM Unwinding at Expiry

By Sanghyun Park

  • Trading opportunities arise when overseas traders’ SSF positions face unwinding by local market makers, who enter SSF positions and take opposing spot positions, unwinding at expiry.
  • August-Expiry SSF data shows reverse flow impact by local market makers today, with varying degrees of impact per stock but an observable overall trend.
  • With ongoing market volatility in Korea, consider setups targeting price impacts from reverse flows of sector pairs trading on the next SSF expiration date.

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): KKR Pre-Conditional Tender Offer at JPY8,800

By Arun George

  • Following media reports, Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) announced a pre-conditional tender offer from KKR at JPY8,800 per share, a 1.0% discount to the last close price of JPY8,890 (8 August).
  • The pre-condition is approvals under competition laws of Japan, Vietnam and possibly Belgium. The offer is anticipated to commence in mid-September.
  • The offer is a knockout bid and the culmination of an auction process. The board’s recommendation and the irrevocables from activist shareholders ensure this deal is done.

Tata Motors (TTMT IN): Index Impact of DVR Cancellation

By Brian Freitas


SK Innovation: Considering on Using Its Treasury Shares to Inject Capital into SK On

By Douglas Kim

  • SK Innovation is considering on using its treasury shares to inject capital into its EV battery making subsidiary SK On. 
  • The appraisal rights exercise price is 111,943 won per share (15% higher than current price). Many minority shareholders are likely to exercise their appraisal rights in SK Innovation.
  • We remain Bearish on SK Innovation. We continue to be negative on the SK Innovation and SK E&S merger. Plus, we are concerned about the continued weakness at SK On. 

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Sep 24: High-Impact F250 Potential ADDs Could Outperform the Index

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for F100 and F250 in the run-up to the September 2024 index rebal event.
  • There could be up to three M&A-related intra-review changes in the next few weeks.
  • Apart from that, there could be two changes for the F100 index and two other changes for the F250 index during the September 2024 review.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Macro: Positioning Watch: Are we back to square one? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Positioning Watch: Are we back to square one?
  • Are We There Yet? What Next for Japanese Assets?
  • US Inflation Watch: Disinflation scare or relief?
  • China Over-Capacity––– Shifting from Heavy to Light Industries
  • VAR Shock Pains Pass
  • Labor Watch: What if the Sahm Rule wasn’t even triggered? A contrarian labour market view..
  • CX Daily: New Rules Set to Give State-Owned Carmakers an EV Boost
  • Market Expectation on US Rate Cuts Balloons: Reversal to QE?
  • Is the US Labor Market Signaling a Recession?


Positioning Watch: Are we back to square one?

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome back to the weekly positioning watch.
  • What a week it has been so far! The recession narrative has slowly but surely vanished from global markets, leaving the events of this Monday a clear outlier and more a question of positioning rather than anything else.
  • However, there are still debates about the true causes behind the sell-off, with the position squaring in USDJPY currently dominating the headlines as the main cause.

Are We There Yet? What Next for Japanese Assets?

By Rikki Malik

  • The first Act of this drama has played out in a very short time frame
  • The trend has likely changed for the JPY and it won’t be back to business as usual for the carry trade
  • This should benefit both real incomes and consumption in Japan

US Inflation Watch: Disinflation scare or relief?

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to our US Inflation Watch.
  • We see US CPI inflation coming in at 2.8% YoY and 0.1% MoM, with core inflation at firm  3.1% YoY and 4 bps hotter than headline on the month.
  • This is clearly below the early consensus, even if a few contributors dare to forecast even lower inflation levels than us.

China Over-Capacity––– Shifting from Heavy to Light Industries

By Alex Ng

  • Over capacity problem has plagued China’s heavy industry in the past years, especially in aluminium, steel, car, and construction.
  • On the other hand, consumption upgrade has been a recent policy direction of the Central Government. Overcapacity problem will start to emerge in lower-end manufacturing products.
  • As the economy produces and consumes higher-end goods, the supplies of heavy industries that end up with buildings and cars may get satisfied.

VAR Shock Pains Pass

By Phil Rush

  • Volatility spiked on 5 August, feeding dysfunctional dynamics. Risk assets have suffered but would be near their lows and soon recover their highs under historical examples.
  • Equity prices also fell into the Fed’s first rate cut in 1998 before the tech bubble was blown. The equivalent potential for easing to prove premature is undiminished.
  • There is no need for an emergency cut, and September’s monetary policy decisions should depend on the recession risk in macro data rather than on recent equity moves.

Labor Watch: What if the Sahm Rule wasn’t even triggered? A contrarian labour market view..

By Ulrik Simmelholt

  • Take aways: Prime age unemployment looks to green light a rate cut. ISM service employment surprising to the upside. The Fed will take a decision in September based on hurricane-impacted numbers.
  • The Sahm rule would not have been triggered if it wansn’t for labor force entries and temporary weather related lay-offs.
  • The job market is doing much better than feared by many and the Fed Funds pricing is overcooking the easing cycle.

CX Daily: New Rules Set to Give State-Owned Carmakers an EV Boost

By Caixin Global

  • Autos / In Depth: New rules set to give state-owned carmakers an EV boost
  • Corruption /: Former Shenzhen mayor gets life sentence for taking $15 million bribes
  • Huawei /: Huawei unveils first luxury sedan model under partnership with BAIC

Market Expectation on US Rate Cuts Balloons: Reversal to QE?

By Alex Ng

  • Majority of the market now believes Fed is going to lower rate by 100bps to 125bps by end of this year and by 50bps in September.
  • Coupled with the most recent weak job reports and stock market revision,  current market environment call for possibility  of reversal to QE.
  • However, we stick to our forecast of only one 25bps rate cut in September, as inflation is still a concern and the Fed would not want to revert to QE.

Is the US Labor Market Signaling a Recession?

By Thomas Lam

  • Arguably, the state of the US labor market is key to any recession call
  • Despite the ongoing rise in the unemployment rate, other labor market dynamics might be at play
  • One simple approach is to use the claims gap along with the unemployment rate to assess whether labor market conditions are deteriorating 

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars



Daily Brief Singapore: Koh Brothers and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • kopi-C with Oiltek’s CEO: ‘We’ve sailed through the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine war’


kopi-C with Oiltek’s CEO: ‘We’ve sailed through the Covid-19 pandemic and Ukraine war’

By Geoff Howie

  • A focus on innovation and adaptability has enabled Oiltek, a vegetable and edible oil process engineering company, to grow steadily, even amid global crises.
  • When Henry Yong joined Malaysia-based Oiltek in 2008 as its managing director, his priority was to hone its innovation. “We have diversified into refinery processes and engineering solutions for a wide variety of edible oils, including palm, sunflower and soybean oil, non-edible oils, renewable energy, such as biogas, biodiesel and feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel, and animal feed.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars