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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Industrials: Tokyo Metro, Afcons Infrastructure Limited, PayPoint PLC, Nidec Corp, SITC International, Grupo Aeroportuario Sur-Adr, Controladora Vuela Cia De-A and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): One Miss; A Bigger Index Inclusion Coming?
  • Afcons Infrastructure IPO – Decent Upside from the Price Range
  • Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Thoughts Deliveroo and Coca-Cola; More Intra-Review Changes
  • Nidec (6594)| Q2 In-Line; Long-Term Outlook Intact
  • SITC International (1308 HK): Unbeatable
  • ASR US – Actinver Research – ASUR 3Q24: Positive Results, In line with our estimates (Quick View)
  • Actinver Research – VOLAR 3Q24: Positive Quarterly Results, Beating Our Estimates (Quick View)


Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): One Miss; A Bigger Index Inclusion Coming?

By Brian Freitas

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) had a blockbuster listing yesterday, finishing the day 45% higher. That took the estimated div yield down from 3.33% (at the IPO price) to 2.3%.
  • One expected index inclusion will not take place due to insufficient information on IPO allocations and that leads to a much lower free float than expected.
  • That inclusion will now be deferred to June; BUT there could be two other (bigger) index inclusions on the cards prior to that.

Afcons Infrastructure IPO – Decent Upside from the Price Range

By Clarence Chu

  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (6595396Z IN) is looking to raise around US$650m in its India IPO.
  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (Afcons) is the flagship infrastructure engineering and construction company of the Shapoorji Pallonji group.
  • In a previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we look at the updates since, and discuss valuation.

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Thoughts Deliveroo and Coca-Cola; More Intra-Review Changes

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the F100 and F250 indices during the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • Separately, we see multiple M&A-related intra-review changes in the next few months.
  • There could also be more regular changes during the December 2024 rebalanced event

Nidec (6594)| Q2 In-Line; Long-Term Outlook Intact

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nidec’s Q2 operating income beat my estimates, driven by strong small motors and appliance segments, though automotive profits underperformed
  • The automotive division is shifting focus from e-axles to broader auto parts, while improving operational efficiency through partnerships and streamlined logistics
  • Despite macro risks, Nidec remains well-positioned for long-term growth in digitalization, decarbonization, and automation, with a price target of ¥4,350

SITC International (1308 HK): Unbeatable

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Together with the just-announced HK$0.40 special DPS, SITC International (1308 HK) has already handed back HK$1.12/share to shareholders YTD, realising a dividend yield of 6.5%.
  • Its 3Q24 performance is impressive, with revenue surging 56.6% YoY. Both volume (+13.4%) and average freight rates (+44.1%) have exhibited solid momentum. 
  • While the consensus forecasts have been upgraded by 7-11% since the 1H24 result, there appears more room to go. FY24 ROE is now expected to be 32.2%.

ASR US – Actinver Research – ASUR 3Q24: Positive Results, In line with our estimates (Quick View)

By Actinver

  • Operating Revenues of P$6.8bn were driven by solid aeronautical growth.
  • Total operating sales growth of 14% YoY was driven by a solid 19% YoY gain in aeronautical revenues, mainly explained by higher average tariffs (+22% YoY), which offset the 2% drop in total PAX.
  • On the other hand, non-aeronautical revenues (34% of the total) gained 5% YoY, supported by an implicit gain of 7% YoY in the non-aeronautical revenue per PAX.

Actinver Research – VOLAR 3Q24: Positive Quarterly Results, Beating Our Estimates (Quick View)

By Actinver

  • Operating revenues of US$813 m decreased by 4% YoY.
  • Top-line results were negatively impacted by a 14% YoY contraction in the ASMs (due to mandatory engine inspections, which resulted in the landing on average of 34 airplanes) and a 13% YoY drop in RPMs. Yields in the quarter ended at US$53.0, implying a 9% YoY gain and 7% above our estimate.
  • The load factor in 3Q24 was 87.4%, with a +1.0 pp YoY expansion.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Samsung Electronics, Pony AI, Horizon Robotics, Texas Instruments, Alibaba Group Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Surging Buzz Around the Potential Split of Samsung Electronics
  • Pony AI Pre-IPO – The Positives – Scaling up Robotaxi & Robotrucks
  • Horizon Robotics IPO Trading – More than 55% of the Deal Taken up by Existing Shareholders
  • Texas Instrument: Small Beat in 3Q24, Uninspiring 4Q Guidance, the Stock Is Very Expensive.
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Oct-2024): 2025+ global smartphone forecast.
  • Pony AI IPO Preview: Small Scale and Early Stage Development. Is Exponential Growth Ahead?


Surging Buzz Around the Potential Split of Samsung Electronics

By Sanghyun Park

  • We’re starting to see some local market players getting ready and setting up trades that bet on a potential split for Samsung Electronics.
  • Samsung could leverage the buzz around spinning off its foundry business to split key units—foundry, memory chips, and others—into two or three separate companies at the shareholder meeting.
  • Additionally, the valuation gap between Samsung Electronics and Biologics has narrowed more than it has in the last decade, making it an even more attractive opportunity.

Pony AI Pre-IPO – The Positives – Scaling up Robotaxi & Robotrucks

By Sumeet Singh

  • Pony AI (PONY US)  an autonomous mobility solutions provider, is looking to raise up to US$300m in its US IPO. 
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Horizon Robotics IPO Trading – More than 55% of the Deal Taken up by Existing Shareholders

By Sumeet Singh

  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m, including over-allocation, in its Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading updates.

Texas Instrument: Small Beat in 3Q24, Uninspiring 4Q Guidance, the Stock Is Very Expensive.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • TXN reported 3Q24 last night: EPS 7% above Consensus, small beat. However, 4Q guidance shows a delayed / tepid recovery: revenue to decline -6% YoY, EPS to decline -21% YoY.
  • Industrial demand is still declining steeply -23% YoY, “hovering at the bottom”. Auto revenue -2% YoY with growth in China but rest of world is declining. 
  • The stock is trading at 31x 2025 and 25x 2026 Consensus EPS, way above its valuations range.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Oct-2024): 2025+ global smartphone forecast.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Global smartphone shipments expected to increase beyond 2025, with OLED technology gaining popularity in tablets and notebooks while Mini LED becomes less preferred.
  • Uncertainty over whether Trump will end TSMC’s subsidies for Arizona factory, impacting material suppliers benefiting from TSMC’s growth in 3Q24.
  • PSMC chairman shifts from cautious approach towards India to optimism with new partnership with Tata, while Horizon Robotics’ Hong Kong IPO supported by Alibaba, Baidu, and TSMC for manufacturing.

Pony AI IPO Preview: Small Scale and Early Stage Development. Is Exponential Growth Ahead?

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Pony AI, a founder-led global autonomous driving company, filed for an IPO in the United States and may raise up to $300M on the Nasdaq exchange.  
  • The technology company operates fully driverless robotaxis (L4) in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Mainland China.
  • Pony AI has raised ~$1.4B in equity financing from top-tier investors, including Toyota Motor, HongShan, IDG Capital, 5Y Capital, ClearVue Partners, and Eight Roads Ventures, among others.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Quantamental LLM Primer 3: Quality-Control 2 AI-designed Portfolios to Devise a Final Portfolio and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Quantamental LLM Primer 3: Quality-Control 2 AI-designed Portfolios to Devise a Final Portfolio
  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 18th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, KB Financial, Shinhan Group


Quantamental LLM Primer 3: Quality-Control 2 AI-designed Portfolios to Devise a Final Portfolio

By William Mann

  • This report outlines a Quality-Control step: comparing output recommendations from two AIs: ChatGPT 4.o and o1-preview, to identify and analyze inconsistencies between the AI’s interpretation of the same Inputs/Prompts. 
  • The report from Primer 2 is uploaded to each AI with the same prompts: to compare and analyze the outputs and settle on a portfolio weighted with relative ETF convictions.
  • We analyze and adjust the merged AI-driven portfolio where we disagree with the AI’s conclusions. Our logic is shared with the AI to derive a final conviction-weighted market-neutral portfolio.  

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 18th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, KB Financial, Shinhan Group

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Oct 18th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD5.0bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, KB Financial, Shinhan Group, Hana Financial.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling


Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

By Joe Jasper

  • Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report
  • Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.
  • The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market’s way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Concerns over Deficit Spending Post-Election and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Concerns over Deficit Spending Post-Election
  • Japan Morning Connection: Tokyo Metro IPO Should See Strong Demand
  • [Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/700 HK/NTES US/JD US/PDD US/BABA US/VIPS US/1024 HK
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:XPEV US/1810 HK/MNSO US/1519 HK/ZTO US/Macro News Update/Travel Market Update
  • Furniture/Furnishings Weekly: BYON Strikes Deals with TCS and KIRK for Bed Bath & Beyond Brand
  • Biopharma Week in Review – October 21, 2024
  • Sustainable Investing Surveyor – October 21, 2024


Ohayo Japan | Concerns over Deficit Spending Post-Election

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks ended mixed on Tuesday as investors assessed rising Treasury yields and concerns over deficit spending post-election
  • Ahead of Japan’s October 27 election, PM Ishiba and major parties pledge to raise minimum wage to 1,500 yen ($9.94) by 2029, a 40% increase from current 1,054 yen
  • Aerospace stocks generally weaker overnight despite relatively strong results. GE Aerospace (-9%), Lockheed Martin (-6%) and RTX (-1%). 

Japan Morning Connection: Tokyo Metro IPO Should See Strong Demand

By Andrew Jackson

  • Nervous markets overnight with a number of earnings misses adding downside pressure.
  • Tokyo Metro IPO kicks off today which should see strong demand especially from risk-adverse retail investors.
  • Tokyo Metro grey market last Y1400 vs Y1200 listing price, although bookrunners are calling higher levels to start.

[Blue Lotus Daily-TMT Update]:BABA US/700 HK/NTES US/JD US/PDD US/BABA US/VIPS US/1024 HK

By Ying Pan

  • 700 HK: Tencent’s <Delta Force> Global Version Launch Scheduled for December 5 (+)
  • 700 HK: Tencent Meeting Announces Free Meeting Time Limit Reduced to 40 Minutes (+)
  • BABA US/700 HK: New user installs reach new high in September (+/+)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:XPEV US/1810 HK/MNSO US/1519 HK/ZTO US/Macro News Update/Travel Market Update

By Eric Wen

  • XPEV US: Xpeng MONA M03 suffers large scale delivery delays (/)
  • 1810 HK: Government official announces that Xiaomi has developed a 3nm smartphone SoC (+)
  • MNSO US: Toptoy Expands Stores to Southeast Asia (/ )

Furniture/Furnishings Weekly: BYON Strikes Deals with TCS and KIRK for Bed Bath & Beyond Brand

By Water Tower Research

  • A relatively quiet week for the markets as earnings growth through the start of earnings season, increasing confidence around the no/soft landing scenario, and China stimulus offset growing concerns over luxury spend.
  • The WTR Commercial/Contract Furniture Index was up 2.2% and the WTR Residential Manufacturers & Suppliers Index was up 1%, while the WTR Home Goods Retailers Index was down 0.9%.
  • The DJ30 and S&P 500 were both flat at +0.1%, while the R2K was up 1.2%. The WTR Mass Retailers Index was up 0.7%.

Biopharma Week in Review – October 21, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • We review last week’s biopharma news for meaningful clinical data, regulatory updates, research innovation, and M&A.
  • Last week, LBPH was acquired, providing a boost to comps PRAX, MRNS, JAZZ, and DRUG.
  • Biopharma M&A may start seeing an uptick after a slow summer.

Sustainable Investing Surveyor – October 21, 2024

By Water Tower Research

  • The WTR Sustainable Index was down 1.9% W/W versus the S&P 500 Index (up 0.9%), the Russell 2000 Index (up 1.9%) and the Nasdaq Index (up 0.3%).
  • Energy Technology (13.2% of the index) was down 0.9%, while Industrial Climate and Ag Technology (48.4% of the index) was up 1.1%, ClimateTech Mining was down 5.8%, and Advanced Transportation Solutions (20.2% of index) was down 5.7%.
  • Top 10 Performers: LTBR, AZRE, GEVO, NXH, HTOO, NGPHF, SMR, NRGV, PEGY, FTCI

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Daily Brief ECM: China Resources Beverage IPO Trading – Still a Bit of Fizz Left and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • China Resources Beverage IPO Trading – Still a Bit of Fizz Left
  • CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Trading Debut
  • Ajax Engineering Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet


China Resources Beverage IPO Trading – Still a Bit of Fizz Left

By Sumeet Singh

  • China Resources Beverage (2460 HK) raised around US$750m in its Hong Kong IPO, after pricing at the top-end.
  • China Resources Beverage manufactures and sells packaged drinking water and RTD soft beverages in China.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

CR Beverage (2460 HK) IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


Ajax Engineering Limited Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Rosita Fernandes

  • Ajax Engineering Limited (0896529D IN) is looking to raise about US$100m through its upcoming IPO in India. The lead bookrunners for the deal are ICICI , CITI, JM, Nuvama, SBI 
  • Ajax Engineering Limited (AEL) is one of the leading concrete equipment manufacturers with a comprehensive range of concrete equipment, services and solutions across the concrete application value chain. 
  • It is one of the top three global SLCM manufacturers, holding about 75% market share in India. In FY24, SLCMs contributed to 12% of India’s concrete production.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, CIFI Holdings, Medco Energi


Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, CIFI Holdings, Medco Energi

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Japan Value | Effissimo Takes Significant Stake in Konica and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Value | Effissimo Takes Significant Stake in Konica
  • CMCDI (133 HK): Concessions Don’t Go Far Enough
  • Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) Crushes Q3 Expectations with 54% Profit Surge—What’s Fueling This Chip Giant’s Growth?
  • What the Ellison allegations mean for MinRes
  • Revisiting the Disney Thesis
  • The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (October 22)
  • Nextracker Inc.: Will The Acquisition of Solar Pile International Up The Ante? – Major Drivers
  • Conch Venture (586 HK): Interesting Angles, yet Undervalued
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (23-Oct-2024): Foxconn focuses on SDV for smart car evolution.
  • Netflix Revenue Soars to $9.83 Billion—What’s Next in 2025’s Bold New Plans?


Japan Value | Effissimo Takes Significant Stake in Konica

By Mark Chadwick

  • Konica Minolta, a key player in the Japanese office equipment market, presents an attractive investment opportunity, particularly in light of the recent actions by activist investor Effissimo.
  • The investment case for Konica Minolta hinges on several factors, including potential structural reforms, M&A activity, and undervaluation.
  • Given Effissimo’s track record with Ricoh and the broader industry dynamics, the thesis for a bullish outlook on Konica Minolta is compelling.

CMCDI (133 HK): Concessions Don’t Go Far Enough

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 27th September, China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK) (CMCDI) teased a share buyback and a special dividend. But as of today. no firm details have been forthcoming. 
  • CMCDI has also now offered to reduce management fees by 25 basis points in the new management agreement, which will be voted on  by independent shareholders in November/December.
  • This concession does not go far enough. Especially when 45% of the management fees are received by founder Victor Chu. 

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) Crushes Q3 Expectations with 54% Profit Surge—What’s Fueling This Chip Giant’s Growth?

By Baptista Research

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has reported a robust performance in the third quarter of 2024, underscored by significant revenue growth driven by both smartphone and AI-related demand.
  • The company’s industry-leading 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer technologies have been at the forefront of this demand surge.
  • Revenue for the third quarter increased sequentially by 12.8% in New Taiwan dollars, reflecting not only strong demand but also higher capacity utilization and cost improvement efforts.

What the Ellison allegations mean for MinRes

By Money of Mine

  • Neil Chenoweth wrote a detailed investigative piece on Min Res founder Chris Allison and former top executives, alleging a tax evasion scheme using shareholder funds.
  • The scheme involved buying machinery with inflated prices from a company named Far East Equipment Holdings in the British Virgin Islands.
  • Min Res stock dropped 13% in response to the article, with implications on leadership and governance of the company.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Revisiting the Disney Thesis

By Value Punks

  • A lot has happened since we published our Disney thesis back in February.
  • On the corporate front, Disney emerged victorious from its proxy battle with Nelson Peltz and managed to patch things up with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
  • In media, Disney posted its first streaming profit—ahead of schedule—and secured the NBA’s coveted “A Package,” though it came with a hefty price tag.

The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (October 22)

By David Mudd

  • Hong Kong markets continue to outperform globally this year with short selling declining and mainland buying increasing.  These trends should accelerate going into next year.
  • Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)resumed trading after announcing that the company is entertaining one or more potential acquisition plans for the company.  The company also announced strong 1H25 earnings.
  • Shanghai Electric Group Company (2727 HK) announce a buyback plan for 10% of A and H shares outstanding.  The company also announced the acquisition of the China Fanuc robotics business.

Nextracker Inc.: Will The Acquisition of Solar Pile International Up The Ante? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Nextracker’s first-quarter earnings for the fiscal year 2025 have offered a mixed yet promising insight into the company’s financial and operational trajectory.
  • The company reported a significant 50% year-on-year growth in revenue and recorded its highest-ever adjusted EBITDA.
  • These figures underscore Nextracker’s strong performance, particularly in a financial landscape characterized by a keen focus on renewable energy solutions.

Conch Venture (586 HK): Interesting Angles, yet Undervalued

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) is sitting on a steep discount of 59% to its NAV. Its holding in Anhui Conch Cement (600585 CH) is already valued at HK$13.3/share.
  • Its waste-to-energy business has a value of Rmb4.4bn by assuming 5x PER, but this business has a net book value of Rmb10bn. Pipeline capacity equals 21.7% of operational capacity.
  • The new energy segment, including lithium battery recycling and the manufacture of positive and negative electrode materials, has solid prospects but is overlooked by the market.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (23-Oct-2024): Foxconn focuses on SDV for smart car evolution.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Foxconn is expanding its SDV development efforts to further the advancement of smart car technology.
  • Intel is seeking collaboration with Samsung to better compete with TSMC in the competitive foundry market.
  • Nvidia is collaborating with Indian partners to develop a custom chip for the Indian market, while Xiaomi launches China’s first 3nm SoC.

Netflix Revenue Soars to $9.83 Billion—What’s Next in 2025’s Bold New Plans?

By Baptista Research

  • Netflix’s third-quarter performance for 2024 highlights several key developments that provide a nuanced view of its position in the competitive streaming market.
  • On the financial front, Netflix delivered strong results, surpassing expectations on both earnings per share ($5.40 vs. $5.12 expected) and revenue ($9.83 billion vs. $9.77 billion expected), reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth.
  • The company added 5.1 million new subscribers, slightly above Wall Street expectations, bringing its total membership to 282.7 million.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Listing Tomorrow; Div Yield and Index Flows Should Take It Higher and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Listing Tomorrow; Div Yield and Index Flows Should Take It Higher
  • The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO And Aftermarket – What To Look For
  • Australia: Potential Passive Selling in November Will Be Big
  • Shinko Electric (6967 JP): A Casualty of the China TCM Deal Break
  • Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec 24: Two Important Takeaways for the TDIV Index
  • KRX’s Final Call on Value-Up ETF Launch & December Rebalancing Preview
  • Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Trade Successful; +9.5% in Three Weeks; More Upside Possible.
  • NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 56% Turnover, Big Trade & Strong Momentum
  • CEMEX’s Low-Balled MTO. For Good Reason
  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK): IPO Lock-Up Expiry Might Prove Golden for Global Index Inclusion


Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Listing Tomorrow; Div Yield and Index Flows Should Take It Higher

By Brian Freitas

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) priced its IPO at the top end (JPY 1200/share), raised JPY 348.6bn (US$2.3bn) and the company is valued at JPY 697bn (US$4.62bn).
  • The stock starts to trade today, and the grey market is indicating an open 20% higher. Not surprising considering that the IPO was heavily oversubscribed.
  • Even at a price of JPY 1440/share, the estimated dividend yield is 2.78% and that should keep the stock supported. Index inclusions will result in more buying next week.

The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO And Aftermarket – What To Look For

By Travis Lundy

  • The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO is one of the largest IPOs of recent years, well-flagged, and it is hot hot hot!  A super stable, well-known, well-respected, service provider.
  • There are numerous attractions but I expect people have not thought too deeply about the demand and supply dynamics of different holder types. It’s worth thinking about. 
  • This was priced “cheap” but everyone knows that so there may be flippers. This is probably more Japan Post Bank than Japan Post Insurance.

Australia: Potential Passive Selling in November Will Be Big

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be two or three Aussie names that are deleted from global passive portfolios in November. In each of the cases, there is a lot to sell from passives.
  • One name is very high probability while the deletion of the others depends on the day of the week chosen.
  • Shorts have been built up on the stocks and there are strong indications of positioning. But the extent of the positioning varies, and the stocks could have differently.

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): A Casualty of the China TCM Deal Break

By Arun George

  • At first glance, the Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) and China TCM merger arb has little or no similarities regarding the region, precondition, sector, type of offeror, or offer structure.
  • The aftermath of China Traditional Chinese Medicine (570 HK) has resulted in funds resizing well-held merger arb positions, mainly long-dated names with tail event risks. This has increased the Shinko spread. 
  • Shinko’s tail event risk (no SAMR approval) remains low. Timing remains the primary risk, as a delay is possible. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread was 8.9%/29.2%.

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Dec 24: Two Important Takeaways for the TDIV Index

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • Currently, we see one change for T50 and two changes for T100 but there are four more weeks to the base date and our expectations can change until then.

KRX’s Final Call on Value-Up ETF Launch & December Rebalancing Preview

By Sanghyun Park

  • Despite feedback from ETF managers, KRX is moving forward with the simultaneous listing of 12 ETFs tracking the Value-Up Index on November 4th.
  • Government-Backed organizations are launching a 200 billion KRW Value-Up Fund for the Value-Up Index stocks, targeting an AUM boost to over 1 trillion KRW by year-end.
  • For new additions in the December rebalancing, the safest bets are POSCO Holdings, JB Financial Group, and HK inno.N.

Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Dec 24: Trade Successful; +9.5% in Three Weeks; More Upside Possible.

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • I currently see 5 ADDs and 4 DELs but some of these names are different from what we had last time (link).
  • The current estimate for one-way flow in December 2024 is US$1.54bn.

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 56% Turnover, Big Trade & Strong Momentum

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 16 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
  • If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn (US$736m).
  • Since June, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.

CEMEX’s Low-Balled MTO. For Good Reason

By David Blennerhassett

  • Back on the 25th April 2024, a Dacon/DMCI Holdings (DMC PM)-led consortium entered into a SPA to acquire 89.86% in CEXMEX (CHP PM) from Cemex SAB de CV (CEMEXCPO MM).
  • The completion of the sale triggered a mandatory tender offer for the remaining 10.14% of shares out. The Offer Price is ₱1.42/share (before considerable fees), a 8% discount to undisturbed.
  • The Offer Period spans October 23 to November 21. There’s the possibility of a technical bump. Don’t expect a follow-on delisting Offer. The Bidders’ intention is to maintain CEMEX’s listing.

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): IPO Lock-Up Expiry Might Prove Golden for Global Index Inclusion

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Laopu Gold (6181 HK) is expected to fail the fcap threshold at the December 2024 review due to low free float unless its price surges ~22% in the next week.
  • The 6-month lock-up expiry will lift the fcap closely above the threshold significantly increasing the probability of inclusion at the March 2025 review.
  • If the mcap qualifies for the small-cap segment, its inclusion is possible at the November 2024 review due to lower fcap requirements. 

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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Crisp: Excessive Futures Open Interest and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Crisp: Excessive Futures Open Interest


Crypto Crisp: Excessive Futures Open Interest

By Mads Eberhardt

  • A new all-time high for Bitcoin is within reach, which aligns with the strength we anticipated in last week’s Crypto Crisp.
  • As we have repeatedly emphasized, this quarter is primed for significant price growth due to a convergence of favorable factors.
  • These include increased U.S. Dollar liquidity, strong seasonal trends, Chinese economic stimulus, and the post-fourth Bitcoin halving phase, which has historically led to substantial returns.

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