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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Event-Driven: JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade
  • Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?
  • Fuji Soft (9749 JP): A Rumoured KKR-Sponsored MBO
  • JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 – 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade
  • China: Passive Selling Expected Later This Month
  • EURO STOXX 50: Exclusion by Sector
  • [JAPAN ACTIVISM] KKR Reportedly Plans Takeover of Fuji Soft (9749) – Relief from Activist Pressure
  • MSC Aug 24 Rebalance: South Africa Post-Election Tailwind? MRP, ARI Potential Adds
  • CR Sanjiu (000999.CH) To Acquire Tasly Pharma (600535.CH) – SOEs Have High Enthusiasm for TCM Assets


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
  • Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).
  • The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.

Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?

By Brian Freitas

  • In its last update, Alibaba Group announced that the company was preparing for its primary listing in Hong Kong and the process was expected to complete by the end August.
  • The Board meets on 14 August to approve results for the three months ending June. Could there be an announcement on the dual primary listing too?
  • Mainland Chinese own between 3.5%-15.5% of companies that converted from Secondary to Dual-Primary in the last few years. Similar buying in Alibaba could take the stock higher from here. 

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): A Rumoured KKR-Sponsored MBO

By Arun George

  • Nikkei and Bloomberg report that Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) will be privatised through a KKR-sponsored MBO at a price just below JPY9,000, a 21.8% premium to the last close.
  • The rumoured privatisation proposal is the culmination of a sale process initiated by 3D Investment Partners, the largest shareholder, in September 2023.
  • The Board will meet tomorrow to discuss the proposal. The rumoured offer represents an all-time high and a knockout bid, suggesting a done deal if a binding proposal materialises.

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 – 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade

By Travis Lundy

  • Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA who does the predictions for this index got 10/10 of his high conviction names, 8/10 of his medium conviction, and 50% of low conviction ADDs.
  • This year, there are fewer caps but some big ones. Nearly ¥500bn of capping flow to sell. 
  • I see just over $6.3bn in buying and selling to be done. A half dozen names with both high ADV impact to buy and decent size.

China: Passive Selling Expected Later This Month

By Brian Freitas

  • The China equity markets have continued to trade lower with the CSI 300 Index outperforming other mainland indices as the National Team continues to pump money into ETFs tracking the index.
  • We currently estimate selling of around US$1.39bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland and in Hong Kong. There could be fewer deletions depending on the review date chosen.
  • The potential deletes have dropped a lot since the start of the calendar year with big underperformance versus the HSCEI Index, CSI 300 Index and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.

EURO STOXX 50: Exclusion by Sector

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Cap Gemini SA (CAP FP) is estimated to be excluded from the selection list in the long-run due to being pushed way above 60% coverage in the Technology sector.
  • Merck KGaA (MRK GR) switches between in and out of the selection list because it fluctuates close to the 60% coverage of the Health Care sector.
  • Nokia OYJ (NOKIA FH) has a higher probability of deletion from SX5E if Merck KGaA (MRK GR)  qualifies to the selection list. Forecasted passive fund supply is  ~15 ADV.   

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] KKR Reportedly Plans Takeover of Fuji Soft (9749) – Relief from Activist Pressure

By Travis Lundy

  • Last year into early 2024, Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) – partially at the prodding of 3D Investment Partners – took in 4 subs and conducted a strategic review.
  • In January, I explored the situation here suggesting the stock had run, FujiSoft needed to liquidate more assets, but a PE firm would look at a valuation of ¥600bn.
  • Last night, the Nikkei reported that US PE Firm KKR planned to take Fuji Soft private with a TOB valued at ¥600bn. Limit up will take us to ¥560bn+.

MSC Aug 24 Rebalance: South Africa Post-Election Tailwind? MRP, ARI Potential Adds

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • MSC indices are due for rebalancing in the closing auction on Friday the 30th of August. Constituent changes will be announced after the close next week Monday.
  • In this note we flag Mr Price Group Ltd (MRP SJ) & African Rainbow Minerals (ARI SJ) as possible additions to the MSC SA index.
  • Since our last discount update on the 22nd of July, Prosus has underperformed Naspers. The discount has widened by 1.7 percentage points to 39.6%.

CR Sanjiu (000999.CH) To Acquire Tasly Pharma (600535.CH) – SOEs Have High Enthusiasm for TCM Assets

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China Resources Sanjiu plans to acquire 28% stake in Tasly for RMB6.21 billion at RMB14.85/share. The acquisition of Tasly is in line with the strategic direction of 14th Five-Year Plan.
  • China Resources is positioned as a leading enterprise in modern industrial chain of TCM by the SASAC.Due to policy support, TCM assets are more likely to be favored by SOEs.
  • The deal is positive for Tasly, whose valuation has room to rise further, but the market seems “skeptical” about China Resources Sanjiu’s decision, leading to a lackluster share price reaction. 

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 6) and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 6)
  • Is Palantir Technologies The AI Powerhouse That Can Save The Day?
  • Rio Tinto: Open to Major Copper M&A; Entree Resources Logical Target
  • Japanese Big Five Banks – Opportunity in the Face of Market Turmoil; Focus on Resona and Mizuho
  • Yum China (9987 HK): 2Q 2024 – Market Expansion Can’t Mask Macro Woes
  • PC Monitor: Promising Uptake of Microsoft Copilot and AI Services; Remain Structurally Long
  • Apple Reports Record Revenue and Earnings Growth, IPhone Sales Surprise Despite China Market Slump
  • Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF) – Wednesday, May 8, 2024
  • Intl Game Technology Plc (IGT) – Wednesday, May 8, 2024
  • Beenos Inc (3328 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update


BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 6)

By David Mudd


Is Palantir Technologies The AI Powerhouse That Can Save The Day?

By Baptista Research

  • Palantir Technologies continues to establish itself as a leading force in the world of data analytics and artificial intelligence.
  • The company’s recent financial results reveal a mixed but overall positive picture, showcasing strong revenue growth and solidifying its position as a key player in both the government and commercial sectors.
  • Palantir’s focus on leveraging AI to solve complex problems at scale is clearly paying off, with impressive strides in revenue and customer acquisition.

Rio Tinto: Open to Major Copper M&A; Entree Resources Logical Target

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven


Japanese Big Five Banks – Opportunity in the Face of Market Turmoil; Focus on Resona and Mizuho

By Victor Galliano

  • The sharp Japanese market correction has hit the banks hard, and heightened market volatility is likely to remain a feature, at least in the very near term
  • Nonetheless, the big five’s results in the first quarter to June-end paint a reassuring picture, and we see that BoJ is pausing on rate rises in these unsettled markets
  • Among the big five Japanese bank shares, we highlight Resona and Mizuho in particular for their strong gearing to higher interest rates; we are also positive on SMFG and Concordia

Yum China (9987 HK): 2Q 2024 – Market Expansion Can’t Mask Macro Woes

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) reported a marginal 1% year-on-year increase in 2Q2024 revenue, driven by new store additions despite a decline in same-store sales.
  • Despite a challenging business environment, it achieved 8% year-on-year profit growth in Q2 and stabilised margins through sharp cost management and operational efficiency initiatives.
  • Without a clear visibility in improvement in consumer sentiment and spending, expect the tough operating environment to limit Yum China’s revenue and profit growth potential.

PC Monitor: Promising Uptake of Microsoft Copilot and AI Services; Remain Structurally Long

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Given market concerns that AI is overhyped and not yet delivering sufficient value, we analyze Microsoft’s Copilot disclosures and examine signs of AI services traction among corporate clients.
  • Signs indicate that Copilot is gaining substantial traction with corporate clients, adding value to software development, business operations, and healthcare documentation functions.
  • The number of organizations paying for MSFT’s AI services is expanding rapidly. We view this as a promising indicator of increased AI adoption and substantial value creation.

Apple Reports Record Revenue and Earnings Growth, IPhone Sales Surprise Despite China Market Slump

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Apple achieved a record $85.78B in Q3 revenue, up 5% YoY, and earnings per share rose 11% to $1.40, exceeding expectations and reflecting strong financial health. 
  • IPhone revenue was $39.3B, surpassing the $38.81B estimate. Despite a 1% YoY decline, iPhone sales showed growth on a constant currency basis, contributing significantly to overall revenue.
  • Services revenue reached a record $24.2B, growing 14% YoY. The gross margin was 46.3%, slightly above estimates, despite challenges from foreign exchange and product mix changes.

Airtel Africa Plc (AAFRF) – Wednesday, May 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Airtel Africa is undervalued and has potential for upside growth
  • Company has shown strong performance in revenue and EBITDA growth despite challenges
  • Potential IPO of mobile money business could unlock more value for shareholders

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Intl Game Technology Plc (IGT) – Wednesday, May 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • IGT announced split with slot machine operator merging with EVRI
  • Lottery business retains ownership, manages lotteries for 92 customers worldwide
  • EVRI to borrow $3.7bn for debt refinance, distribute $2.2Bn to Lottery business; estimated tax leakage of $100m for taxable accounts

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Beenos Inc (3328 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • GMV increased 21.4% YoY to JPY85.7bn, while revenue decreased 7.7% YoY to JPY20.4bn, and operating profit fell 46.6% YoY to JPY1.4bn.
  • In Q3 FY09/24, GMV grew 21.4% YoY, with Global Commerce revenue up 21.3% YoY and Entertainment revenue up 6.8% YoY.
  • The company recorded an extraordinary gain of JPY1.0bn from the Value Cycle segment share transfer, impacting FY09/24 results.

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Daily Brief Macro: Oil and Gas Weather Black Monday Storm Relatively Unscathed and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Oil and Gas Weather Black Monday Storm Relatively Unscathed
  • Wheat, Corn and Soy Remain Insulated From Global Shakedown
  • Oil & Gas Giants Hit by Recession-Driven Sell-Off but Outperform the S&P 500
  • Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era
  • Champion Iron Q1 2025: Inline, High-Grade Iron Ore on Critical Minerals List in Canada
  • CX Daily: How to Better Protect Procedural Justice for Criminal Suspects in China


Oil and Gas Weather Black Monday Storm Relatively Unscathed

By Suhas Reddy

  • Crude oil prices ended Monday lower but fell less than other commodities and equities. WTI dropped 0.79% and Brent fell 0.66%, while the S&P 500 declined 3%.
  • Crude oil prices were supported by rising Middle East tensions, the shutdown of Libya’s largest oil field, and a sharp decline in the DXY.
  • Henry Hub futures fell 1.27% due to surplus stockpiles, cooler US weather forecasts, and the impact of Hurricane Debby.

Wheat, Corn and Soy Remain Insulated From Global Shakedown

By Pranay Yadav

  • Wheat, Corn and Soy gained on Monday even as US indices and commodities tumbled over recession woes. 
  • Weaker dollar supports stronger US exports of agri-commodities. Grains and oilseeds rise as dollar weakens.
  • Technical indicators and fundamental outlook remains bearish for agri-commoties. IV remains subdued at multi-month lows. 

Oil & Gas Giants Hit by Recession-Driven Sell-Off but Outperform the S&P 500

By Suhas Reddy

  • The milder drop in crude oil prices was reflected in energy stocks on Monday, with most major oil and gas companies, outperforming the S&P 500.
  • Most of the oil companies’ volume PCR was elevated on Monday and Friday, with Haliburton’s volume PCR exceptionally high at 3.66 on Monday (5/Aug).
  • On 5/Aug, all major energy companies saw a rise in implied volatility due to recession fears, except Shell, whose IV dropped slightly to 20.01% from 20.28% on Friday.

Japan: Normalizing Interest Rates as Nominal GDP Surges, Ending Deflation Era

By Prasenjit K. Basu

  • With nominal GDP growing 6%YoY in the latest 3 quarters, Japanese interest rates will be gradually normalized. The JPY rebound, however, precludes the need for rapid BoJ hikes. 
  • Unwinding of Yen carry-trades should take JPY to ¥125/US$ by end-2024, which will contribute to tightening monetary conditions sufficiently, further slowing inflation (from 2.85%YoY in May-Jun’24). 
  • Appreciating JPY is bad for Japanese equities, so stay Underweight, with a defensive portfolio comprising utilities, pharmaceuticals and consumer staples. 

Champion Iron Q1 2025: Inline, High-Grade Iron Ore on Critical Minerals List in Canada

By Sameer Taneja

  • Champion Iron (CIA AU) reported an inline Q1 FY25, with revenue/earnings up 57%/308% YoY owing to a 34% YoY volume increase and better pricing. 
  • The company reiterated its guidance for 15 million tons of production and equivalent sales. It is working on improving logistics after forest fires and other port/rail issues. 
  • The stock trades at 8.5x PE and a 6% dividend yield for FY25e ( assuming iron ore prices of USD 108/ton with a 15 USD/ton premium on 65% Fe). 

CX Daily: How to Better Protect Procedural Justice for Criminal Suspects in China

By Caixin Global

  • Law / In Depth: How to better protect procedural justice for criminal suspects in China
  • Default /: State-backed leasing firm misses $55.9 million bond payment
  • Corruption /: Former boss of Shanghai’s state-owned conglomerate tried for embezzlement and bribery 

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Daily Brief Australia: Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Champion Iron Q1 2025: Inline, High-Grade Iron Ore on Critical Minerals List in Canada


Champion Iron Q1 2025: Inline, High-Grade Iron Ore on Critical Minerals List in Canada

By Sameer Taneja

  • Champion Iron (CIA AU) reported an inline Q1 FY25, with revenue/earnings up 57%/308% YoY owing to a 34% YoY volume increase and better pricing. 
  • The company reiterated its guidance for 15 million tons of production and equivalent sales. It is working on improving logistics after forest fires and other port/rail issues. 
  • The stock trades at 8.5x PE and a 6% dividend yield for FY25e ( assuming iron ore prices of USD 108/ton with a 15 USD/ton premium on 65% Fe). 

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Daily Brief South Korea: KT Corp, Celltrion Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Initial Thoughts on the K Bank IPO
  • Celltrion (068270 KS): 2Q24 Result- Biosimilar Sales Roar; Operating Profit Recovers Sequentially


Initial Thoughts on the K Bank IPO

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we provide an update on the K Bank IPO, which is more likely in 1H 2025. K Bank is one of the largest Internet-only banks in Korea. 
  • A successful IPO of K Bank could have a positive impact on KT Corp (030200 KS) which is the indirectly the largest shareholder of K Bank. 
  • K Bank had total operating income of 51.5 billion won (up 328% YoY) in 1Q 2024. Operating margin improved materially from 5.7% in 1Q 2023 to 19.5% in 1Q 2024.

Celltrion (068270 KS): 2Q24 Result- Biosimilar Sales Roar; Operating Profit Recovers Sequentially

By Tina Banerjee

  • Celltrion Inc (068270 KS) posted revenue of KRW875B in 2Q24, driven by balanced growth in both the existing core and new biosimilar products.
  • Operating profit ‘temporarily’ declined 60% YoY due to the ongoing impact of the merger. However, operating profit improved by a massive 371% sequentially.
  • Celltrion maintains its 2024 revenue target of KRW3.5T (+60% YoY). The improvement in sales and operating profit in the second half of the year is expected to become increasingly evident.

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Daily Brief United States: Palantir Technologies , Crude Oil, Corn Active Contract, S&P Global , Apple , International Game Technology Ordinary Shares, Ferrellgas Partners, Aon , Advanced Micro Devices and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Is Palantir Technologies The AI Powerhouse That Can Save The Day?
  • Oil and Gas Weather Black Monday Storm Relatively Unscathed
  • Wheat, Corn and Soy Remain Insulated From Global Shakedown
  • S&P Global Inc.: Expansion into Private Markets and Credit Indices As A New Avenue For Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Apple Reports Record Revenue and Earnings Growth, IPhone Sales Surprise Despite China Market Slump
  • Oil & Gas Giants Hit by Recession-Driven Sell-Off but Outperform the S&P 500
  • Intl Game Technology Plc (IGT) – Wednesday, May 8, 2024
  • Ferrellgas Partners (FGPRB) – Tuesday, May 7, 2024
  • Aon plc: Expanding Market Presence through Acquisitions! – Major Drivers
  • Advanced Micro Devices: Why We Are More Optimistic About AMD As Compared To Rivals! – Major Drivers


Is Palantir Technologies The AI Powerhouse That Can Save The Day?

By Baptista Research

  • Palantir Technologies continues to establish itself as a leading force in the world of data analytics and artificial intelligence.
  • The company’s recent financial results reveal a mixed but overall positive picture, showcasing strong revenue growth and solidifying its position as a key player in both the government and commercial sectors.
  • Palantir’s focus on leveraging AI to solve complex problems at scale is clearly paying off, with impressive strides in revenue and customer acquisition.

Oil and Gas Weather Black Monday Storm Relatively Unscathed

By Suhas Reddy

  • Crude oil prices ended Monday lower but fell less than other commodities and equities. WTI dropped 0.79% and Brent fell 0.66%, while the S&P 500 declined 3%.
  • Crude oil prices were supported by rising Middle East tensions, the shutdown of Libya’s largest oil field, and a sharp decline in the DXY.
  • Henry Hub futures fell 1.27% due to surplus stockpiles, cooler US weather forecasts, and the impact of Hurricane Debby.

Wheat, Corn and Soy Remain Insulated From Global Shakedown

By Pranay Yadav

  • Wheat, Corn and Soy gained on Monday even as US indices and commodities tumbled over recession woes. 
  • Weaker dollar supports stronger US exports of agri-commodities. Grains and oilseeds rise as dollar weakens.
  • Technical indicators and fundamental outlook remains bearish for agri-commoties. IV remains subdued at multi-month lows. 

S&P Global Inc.: Expansion into Private Markets and Credit Indices As A New Avenue For Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • S&P Global demonstrated a robust performance in the second quarter of 2024, marking significant milestones and strategic advancements, achieved amidst a backdrop of market variability.
  • The company reported a 16% increase in total revenue, adjusted for divestitures, with highlights including a notable spike in transaction revenue in the Ratings division by over 60%.
  • This division’s success was propelled by increased activity in the public and private markets, notably a 70% boost in private market rating services.

Apple Reports Record Revenue and Earnings Growth, IPhone Sales Surprise Despite China Market Slump

By Uttkarsh Kohli

  • Apple achieved a record $85.78B in Q3 revenue, up 5% YoY, and earnings per share rose 11% to $1.40, exceeding expectations and reflecting strong financial health. 
  • IPhone revenue was $39.3B, surpassing the $38.81B estimate. Despite a 1% YoY decline, iPhone sales showed growth on a constant currency basis, contributing significantly to overall revenue.
  • Services revenue reached a record $24.2B, growing 14% YoY. The gross margin was 46.3%, slightly above estimates, despite challenges from foreign exchange and product mix changes.

Oil & Gas Giants Hit by Recession-Driven Sell-Off but Outperform the S&P 500

By Suhas Reddy

  • The milder drop in crude oil prices was reflected in energy stocks on Monday, with most major oil and gas companies, outperforming the S&P 500.
  • Most of the oil companies’ volume PCR was elevated on Monday and Friday, with Haliburton’s volume PCR exceptionally high at 3.66 on Monday (5/Aug).
  • On 5/Aug, all major energy companies saw a rise in implied volatility due to recession fears, except Shell, whose IV dropped slightly to 20.01% from 20.28% on Friday.

Intl Game Technology Plc (IGT) – Wednesday, May 8, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • IGT announced split with slot machine operator merging with EVRI
  • Lottery business retains ownership, manages lotteries for 92 customers worldwide
  • EVRI to borrow $3.7bn for debt refinance, distribute $2.2Bn to Lottery business; estimated tax leakage of $100m for taxable accounts

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Ferrellgas Partners (FGPRB) – Tuesday, May 7, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Ferrellgas is the second-largest retail propane distributor in the United States, serving various customer segments such as residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, and wholesale.
  • The company has a strong logistics network and holds a significant market share in the domestic tank exchange business through the Blue Rhino brand.
  • Founded in 1939 in Atchison, Kansas, Ferrellgas has a history of growth through organic expansion and acquisitions, successfully navigating a post-bankruptcy reorganization and currently led by Executive Chairman James Ferrell.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Aon plc: Expanding Market Presence through Acquisitions! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Aon plc has delivered a robust performance for the second quarter of 2024, marked by a clear focus on delivering on its three-dimensional, three-year strategic plan known as the “3×3 plan.” This approach underscores Aon’s commitment to strengthening offerings across risk capital and human capital solutions, all promoted through its Aon client leadership model.
  • The acquisition of NFP, welcoming 7,700 new colleagues, has played a pivotal role, adding substantial scale and extending Aon’s capabilities in critical business areas.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Advanced Micro Devices: Why We Are More Optimistic About AMD As Compared To Rivals! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported robust financial results for the second quarter of 2024, delivering a noteworthy performance across several key segments.
  • As highlighted in the earnings report, AMD achieved a year-over-year revenue increase of 9%, totaling $5.8 billion.
  • This growth was driven chiefly by strong sales in the Data Center and Client segments, which compensated for the declines in Gaming and Embedded segment revenues.

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Daily Brief India: BrainBees Solutions and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: Key Facts, Financials and Valuations
  • BrainBees Solutions IPO: Five Facts Why FirstCry Is Not a First Class Company


Brainbees Solutions (FirstCry) IPO: Key Facts, Financials and Valuations

By Devi Subhakesan

  • BrainBees Solutions (0172540D IN) that operates FirstCry, India’s leading Online Mom and Child vertical, has launched a USD500 mn IPO that closes on August 8th.
  • The IPO pricing suggest a post-money equity valuation of around USD 2.8 billion and an EV/Revenue multiple in the range of 3.5X-3.7X.
  • Brainbees operates in an attractive online vertical noted for its high frequency purchases and long term customer relationship. However it has not built significant competitive advantages versus leading horizontal platforms.

BrainBees Solutions IPO: Five Facts Why FirstCry Is Not a First Class Company

By Devi Subhakesan

  • We highlight several red flags  with regard to BrainBees Solutions (0172540D IN) operations, business strategy and governance for investors’ careful consideration.
  • At the announced IPO price band of Rs440 – Rs465, Brainbees implied EV/Revenues (FY24) works out to 3.5X – 3.7X – a significant discount to India listed online retail verticals.
  • Despite seemingly inexpensive relative valuations, we do not see a compelling reason to invest in the company, specially given the several red flags discussed below.

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Daily Brief Japan: Softbank Group, Fuji Soft Inc, T Gaia Corp, Resona Holdings, Beenos Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, H2O Retailing, Ebara Foods Industry, Harmonic Drive Systems and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade
  • Fuji Soft (9749 JP): A Rumoured KKR-Sponsored MBO
  • JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 – 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade
  • [JAPAN ACTIVISM] KKR Reportedly Plans Takeover of Fuji Soft (9749) – Relief from Activist Pressure
  • Japanese Big Five Banks – Opportunity in the Face of Market Turmoil; Focus on Resona and Mizuho
  • Beenos Inc (3328 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update
  • If We Don’t Change the Way We Used to Do Things, We Cannot Embrace Diverse Values
  • H2O Retailing (8242 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update
  • Ebara Foods Industry (2819 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update
  • Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update


JPX Nikkei 400 Index Rebalance: A Bunch of Chunky Adds & US$6bn Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 44 adds/41 deletes for the JPX Nikkei 400 Index to bring the number of index constituents back to 400. There are stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
  • Based on the adds, deletes and capping changes, we estimate one way turnover of 7.9% and a round-trip trade of JPY 880bn (US$6bn).
  • The adds have outperformed the deletes over the last year though that has been faded over the last couple of months. Breaking with history, there could be outperformance near-term.

Fuji Soft (9749 JP): A Rumoured KKR-Sponsored MBO

By Arun George

  • Nikkei and Bloomberg report that Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) will be privatised through a KKR-sponsored MBO at a price just below JPY9,000, a 21.8% premium to the last close.
  • The rumoured privatisation proposal is the culmination of a sale process initiated by 3D Investment Partners, the largest shareholder, in September 2023.
  • The Board will meet tomorrow to discuss the proposal. The rumoured offer represents an all-time high and a knockout bid, suggesting a done deal if a binding proposal materialises.

JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal Aug 2024 – 44 IN, 41 OUT, ¥500bn of Capping, Just Under ¥1trn to Trade

By Travis Lundy

  • Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA who does the predictions for this index got 10/10 of his high conviction names, 8/10 of his medium conviction, and 50% of low conviction ADDs.
  • This year, there are fewer caps but some big ones. Nearly ¥500bn of capping flow to sell. 
  • I see just over $6.3bn in buying and selling to be done. A half dozen names with both high ADV impact to buy and decent size.

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] KKR Reportedly Plans Takeover of Fuji Soft (9749) – Relief from Activist Pressure

By Travis Lundy

  • Last year into early 2024, Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) – partially at the prodding of 3D Investment Partners – took in 4 subs and conducted a strategic review.
  • In January, I explored the situation here suggesting the stock had run, FujiSoft needed to liquidate more assets, but a PE firm would look at a valuation of ¥600bn.
  • Last night, the Nikkei reported that US PE Firm KKR planned to take Fuji Soft private with a TOB valued at ¥600bn. Limit up will take us to ¥560bn+.

Japanese Big Five Banks – Opportunity in the Face of Market Turmoil; Focus on Resona and Mizuho

By Victor Galliano

  • The sharp Japanese market correction has hit the banks hard, and heightened market volatility is likely to remain a feature, at least in the very near term
  • Nonetheless, the big five’s results in the first quarter to June-end paint a reassuring picture, and we see that BoJ is pausing on rate rises in these unsettled markets
  • Among the big five Japanese bank shares, we highlight Resona and Mizuho in particular for their strong gearing to higher interest rates; we are also positive on SMFG and Concordia

Beenos Inc (3328 JP): Q3 FY09/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • GMV increased 21.4% YoY to JPY85.7bn, while revenue decreased 7.7% YoY to JPY20.4bn, and operating profit fell 46.6% YoY to JPY1.4bn.
  • In Q3 FY09/24, GMV grew 21.4% YoY, with Global Commerce revenue up 21.3% YoY and Entertainment revenue up 6.8% YoY.
  • The company recorded an extraordinary gain of JPY1.0bn from the Value Cycle segment share transfer, impacting FY09/24 results.

If We Don’t Change the Way We Used to Do Things, We Cannot Embrace Diverse Values

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The government only considers foreign personnel as labor force and accepts them in industries where labor is in short supply and places restrictions on their transfer to other industries.
  • Imposing a Japanese language test on long-term residents who are eligible to stay in Japan may result in the loss of opportunities to recruit talented foreign personnel.
  • The government has been unable to step forward to “respect human rights and share diverse values.” If Japanese people do not change, we will never be able to embrace diversity.

H2O Retailing (8242 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • The company applied ASBJ Statement No. 29 in FY03/22, affecting revenue recognition and sales commissions, impacting financial metrics.
  • Department Store business saw increased gross sales and operating profit YoY, driven by domestic sales and inbound tourist expansion.
  • Supermarket business experienced flat sales YoY but a decline in operating profit due to higher personnel expenses.

Ebara Foods Industry (2819 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q1 FY03/25 revenue was JPY11.9bn (+9.6% YoY); operating profit JPY725mn (-2.4% YoY); recurring profit JPY813mn (-0.7% YoY).
  • Food business revenue JPY10.0bn (+10.4% YoY); household-use products JPY7.2bn (+4.1% YoY); commercial-use products JPY2.8bn (+30.7% YoY).
  • Distribution business revenue JPY1.8bn (+5.2% YoY); segment profit JPY8mn (-65.2% YoY); Other businesses revenue JPY134mn (+13.6% YoY).

Harmonic Drive Systems (6324 JP): Q1 FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Q1 FY03/24 sales declined 13.4% YoY to JPY13.0bn, with an operating loss of JPY238mn and net loss of JPY283mn.
  • Orders increased 38.6% YoY to JPY7.4bn, driven by industrial robots and semiconductor production equipment, particularly in the Chinese market.
  • The company targets FY03/27 sales of JPY90.0bn and operating profit of JPY15.0bn, with significant capital investment and R&D expenditure planned.

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Daily Brief China: Alibaba Group Holding , MGM China Holdings, Topsports International Holdings, China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharma, Yum China Holdings , Black Sesame Technologies, Kuaishou Technology, Cathay Pacific Airways, Hang Lung Properties, Li Auto and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?
  • BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 6)
  • China: Passive Selling Expected Later This Month
  • CR Sanjiu (000999.CH) To Acquire Tasly Pharma (600535.CH) – SOEs Have High Enthusiasm for TCM Assets
  • Yum China (9987 HK): 2Q 2024 – Market Expansion Can’t Mask Macro Woes
  • Black Sesame IPO Trading – Lackluster Demand, Combined with Bad Timing
  • KS/Kuaishou (1024 HK): 2Q24 Preview, 2-Digit Growth, 5th Profitable Quarter, and Significant Upside
  • Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP:9.90HKD): Decent Results, Stay the Course
  • Hang Lung Properties 101 HK: Dragged by China Slowing Luxury Retail, but Stock Too Cheap to Ignore
  • [Blue Lotus Transportation Sector Update]: Consolidation by BYD, LI and Huawei Continue


Alibaba (9988 HK/BABA) Dual Primary Listing: Are We There Yet?

By Brian Freitas

  • In its last update, Alibaba Group announced that the company was preparing for its primary listing in Hong Kong and the process was expected to complete by the end August.
  • The Board meets on 14 August to approve results for the three months ending June. Could there be an announcement on the dual primary listing too?
  • Mainland Chinese own between 3.5%-15.5% of companies that converted from Secondary to Dual-Primary in the last few years. Similar buying in Alibaba could take the stock higher from here. 

BUY/SELL/HOLD: Hong Kong Stock Updates (August 6)

By David Mudd


China: Passive Selling Expected Later This Month

By Brian Freitas

  • The China equity markets have continued to trade lower with the CSI 300 Index outperforming other mainland indices as the National Team continues to pump money into ETFs tracking the index.
  • We currently estimate selling of around US$1.39bn across 74 stocks listed on the mainland and in Hong Kong. There could be fewer deletions depending on the review date chosen.
  • The potential deletes have dropped a lot since the start of the calendar year with big underperformance versus the HSCEI Index, CSI 300 Index and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.

CR Sanjiu (000999.CH) To Acquire Tasly Pharma (600535.CH) – SOEs Have High Enthusiasm for TCM Assets

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • China Resources Sanjiu plans to acquire 28% stake in Tasly for RMB6.21 billion at RMB14.85/share. The acquisition of Tasly is in line with the strategic direction of 14th Five-Year Plan.
  • China Resources is positioned as a leading enterprise in modern industrial chain of TCM by the SASAC.Due to policy support, TCM assets are more likely to be favored by SOEs.
  • The deal is positive for Tasly, whose valuation has room to rise further, but the market seems “skeptical” about China Resources Sanjiu’s decision, leading to a lackluster share price reaction. 

Yum China (9987 HK): 2Q 2024 – Market Expansion Can’t Mask Macro Woes

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Yum China Holdings (9987 HK) reported a marginal 1% year-on-year increase in 2Q2024 revenue, driven by new store additions despite a decline in same-store sales.
  • Despite a challenging business environment, it achieved 8% year-on-year profit growth in Q2 and stabilised margins through sharp cost management and operational efficiency initiatives.
  • Without a clear visibility in improvement in consumer sentiment and spending, expect the tough operating environment to limit Yum China’s revenue and profit growth potential.

Black Sesame IPO Trading – Lackluster Demand, Combined with Bad Timing

By Clarence Chu

  • Black Sesame Technologies (BLACKSES HK) raised around US$133m in its Hong Kong IPO, after pricing its IPO at the low-end.
  • Black Sesame International Holdings (BSIH) is an automotive-grade computing SoC and SoC-based intelligent vehicle solution provider.
  • We have covered various aspects of the deal in our previous note. In this note, we will talk about the demand and trading dynamics.

KS/Kuaishou (1024 HK): 2Q24 Preview, 2-Digit Growth, 5th Profitable Quarter, and Significant Upside

By Ming Lu

  • We believe revenue will grow by 11% YoY and the company will make money for the fifth consecutive quarter in 2Q24.
  • We believe both adverting and e-commerce revenue will grow strongly in 2Q24.
  • We set an upside of 140% and a price target at HK$104 for the end of 2025. Buy.

Cathay Pacific (293 HK, BUY, TP:9.90HKD): Decent Results, Stay the Course

By Mohshin Aziz

  • 1HFY24 net profit declined -15% YoY to HK$3.4 billion, in-line with consensus 
  • Interim dividend of HK$0.20/share, at 38% payout ratio. Typically, Cathay pays 50% payout ratio, and we can expect final dividend to be much larger
  • Maintain BUY with target price of HK$9.90 (+26% UPSIDE) implies 10x FY2024 PE, parity multiple against its arch-rival Singapore Airlines (SIA SP). 

Hang Lung Properties 101 HK: Dragged by China Slowing Luxury Retail, but Stock Too Cheap to Ignore

By Jacob Cheng

  • HLP malls, which focus on China luxury retail consumption, is facing headwind from slowing China economy and weaker consumption
  • The retail sales in its malls slowed down and recorded -13% yoy growth for 1H 2024.  Dividend cut was a negative surprise
  • However, market is forward looking and stock valuation is too cheap to ignore, we recommend long-term investors can look at this name

[Blue Lotus Transportation Sector Update]: Consolidation by BYD, LI and Huawei Continue

By Eric Wen

  • Market underestimates the size of China’s stimulus packages, which consist of Rmb150bn of EV trade-in’s by year end and Rmb3tn worth of industrial equipment upgrades over 5 years;
  • Consolidation by BYD, LI and Huawei in marketing share shall continue, profitably. Our TOP PICK is BYD.
  • Consolidation by BYD, LI and Huawei in marketing share shall continue, profitably. Our TOP PICK is BYD.

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Daily Brief Utilities: Ferrellgas Partners and more

By | Daily Briefs, Utilities Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Ferrellgas Partners (FGPRB) – Tuesday, May 7, 2024


Ferrellgas Partners (FGPRB) – Tuesday, May 7, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Ferrellgas is the second-largest retail propane distributor in the United States, serving various customer segments such as residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural, and wholesale.
  • The company has a strong logistics network and holds a significant market share in the domestic tank exchange business through the Blue Rhino brand.
  • Founded in 1939 in Atchison, Kansas, Ferrellgas has a history of growth through organic expansion and acquisitions, successfully navigating a post-bankruptcy reorganization and currently led by Executive Chairman James Ferrell.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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