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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Uniswap, KMC Properties and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #48 – Uniswap’s Unichain Is Net Positive, End of Story
  • Kmc Properties Asa (KMCP) – Monday, Jul 22, 2024


Crypto Moves #48 – Uniswap’s Unichain Is Net Positive, End of Story

By Mads Eberhardt

  • Last Thursday, Uniswap, the leading decentralized spot exchange, announced its upcoming Layer 2, also known as rollup, on Ethereum, called Unichain.
  • For a detailed explanation of Ethereum rollups, please see Crypto Moves #16.
  • This new rollup will be based on Optimism’s Superchain technology, which also powers Coinbase’s Base rollup and the soon-to-launch Layer 2 from Sony.

Kmc Properties Asa (KMCP) – Monday, Jul 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • KMC Properties ASA and Logistea AB have announced a merger expected to be completed by end of Q3 or beginning of Q4
  • Potential 23% return in around 3 months by going long on KMC-P ASA and shorting Logistea AB
  • Merger involves Logistea acquiring all assets of KMC Properties and issuing consideration shares in two tranches, with the first already distributed and second expected soon

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Industrials: Tokyo Metro, Doosan Robotics , S.F. Holding, T.S. Lines, Danaher Corp, Ocean Wilsons Holdings, General Dynamics, Amaero International Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: Trading Debut
  • Doosan’s Tweaked Restructuring Play: My Take on Hitting Robotics’ 13% Spread
  • SF Holding Pre-IPO: Proposed Interim & Special Dividends of 1.40 CNY Per Share Ahead of HK Listing
  • T.S. Lines Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Shipping Volumes Improved, However Paid Another Large Dividend
  • Tokyo Metro IPO Trading – Robust Demand for Quality Asset
  • Danaher Corp (DHR) – Monday, Jul 22, 2024
  • Ocean Wilsons Holdings – Sale of Wilson Sons investment
  • General Dynamics Corp (GD) – Friday, Jul 19, 2024
  • Amaero International Ltd – First commercial sales achieved in Q1


Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


Doosan’s Tweaked Restructuring Play: My Take on Hitting Robotics’ 13% Spread

By Sanghyun Park

  • The big question is how to cash in on the dissenters’ rights spread for Robotics. The main concern is cancellation risk, but the FSS doesn’t seem too negative on approval.
  • To sustain nuclear momentum, Enerbility needs heavy borrowing for facility investments, requiring a lower debt ratio. Offloading debt-heavy Bobcat is a move shareholders might support.
  • With NPS unlikely to ignore the government’s nuclear push, Robotics’ spread could narrow quickly. Despite cancellation risk and no hedge, the remaining juice makes an outright position worth considering.

SF Holding Pre-IPO: Proposed Interim & Special Dividends of 1.40 CNY Per Share Ahead of HK Listing

By Daniel Hellberg

  • SF Holding proposes interim & special dividends for owners of A-shares
  • Combined cash dividend totals 1.40 CNY per share, yielding about 3.3%
  • Meeting October 29 to approve dividends, Q3 results, planned HK listing

T.S. Lines Pre-IPO – PHIP Updates – Shipping Volumes Improved, However Paid Another Large Dividend

By Clarence Chu

  • T.S. Lines (TSL HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • T.S. Lines (TSL) is a container shipping firm primarily operating in the Asia Pacific (APAC) region.
  • In a previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we talk about the recent updates from its filings.

Tokyo Metro IPO Trading – Robust Demand for Quality Asset

By Sumeet Singh

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP)‘s shareholders raised around US$2.4bn in its Japan IPO. 
  • Tokyo Metro (TKM) is one of the two metro network operators in the Tokyo region. It operates nine subway lines with a total of 180 stations.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading dynamics.

Danaher Corp (DHR) – Monday, Jul 22, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Danaher has a history of long-term growth, with a 15% increase in stock price over the past 10 years.
  • Founded in the 1980s by Steven and Mitchell Rales, Danaher focused on acquiring industrial companies with a private equity strategy.
  • Strategic management and operational improvements have allowed Danaher to consistently grow its free cash flow per share at a double-digit rate, making it a solid investment despite its current valuation.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Ocean Wilsons Holdings – Sale of Wilson Sons investment

By Edison Investment Research

Ocean Wilsons announced today that it has agreed to sell its 56.47% stake in Wilson Sons to SAS Shipping Agencies Services, a wholly owned subsidiary of MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company, for R$4.4bn (equivalent to R$17.50 per share). The consideration will be converted into US dollars, which, at the current exchange rate, implies a purchase price of US$768m. The transaction is expected to trigger a Brazilian withholding tax liability of up to US$142m and to ultimately realise net cash proceeds of ‘at least US$593m’. The transaction is expected to complete in H225. A ‘meaningful’ proportion of the proceeds will be returned to shareholders and some may be reinvested in Ocean Wilsons.


General Dynamics Corp (GD) – Friday, Jul 19, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • General Dynamics is a global aerospace and defense firm with a diverse portfolio of businesses and strong market presence
  • The company has solid financial performance with $42.3 billion in revenue, $3.3 billion in net income, and a strong balance sheet with $8.2 billion in net debt
  • The investment thesis is focused on the strength of Gulfstream business, with a healthy backlog of $21 billion, new product introductions, and a leading position in the business/private jet market, making it a promising investment opportunity.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Amaero International Ltd – First commercial sales achieved in Q1

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS Research Group has published an update report on advanced materials manufacturing group Amaero International (ASX:3DA) following its Q1 result in which it reported first commercial revenues of $1.0m, marking its first quarter of material commercial revenue from its Tennessee operation.
  • The revenue includes approximately $0.6m from powder sales and $0.45m from PM HIP manufacturing.
  • The powder sales made during the quarter included test material to ADDMAN Group, with which the company has a five-year preferred supplier agreement, as well as custom atomisation of C103 for a NYSE-listed materials company, custom atomisation of C103 for a US government-funded laboratory and custom atomisation of a development refractory alloy for another US government-funded laboratory.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 18th): Ase Industrial and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 18th): Ase Industrial, Asia Vital Components, Taishin Financial
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 18th): Hon Hai Precision Industry, TSMC, Quanta Computer
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 18th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Korzinc, Kia
  • Northbound Flows (3Q2024): Wait and See Mode


TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Oct 18th): Ase Industrial, Asia Vital Components, Taishin Financial

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 18th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD20.7bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Ase Industrial, Asia Vital Components, Taishin Financial, Century Iron And Steel Industrial, Quanta Computer, Wistron, Via Technologies, Mediatek.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 18th): Hon Hai Precision Industry, TSMC, Quanta Computer

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Oct 18th which has an aggregated holding worth USD1,053.9bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD1,488mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Hon Hai Precision Industry, TSMC, Quanta Computer, Delta Electronics, Fubon Financial, United Microelectronics.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Oct 18th): Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Korzinc, Kia

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Oct 18th which has an aggregated holding worth USD524.8bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,097mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight changes of foreign holdings in Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Korzinc, Kia.

Northbound Flows (3Q2024): Wait and See Mode

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the 3Q2024 Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine as the exchange changed the rule to only disclose north bound position once a quarter.
  • We estimate that the inflows in 3Q were US$7,684 million and holdings were USD340bn.
  • We highlight flows for Midea, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Catl, Yangtze Power.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Morning Connection: Recruit’s 20% ADV Buyback Should Run Out of Bullets Early Nov and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Morning Connection: Recruit’s 20% ADV Buyback Should Run Out of Bullets Early Nov
  • Ohayo Japan | U.S. Stocks Closed at Record High


Japan Morning Connection: Recruit’s 20% ADV Buyback Should Run Out of Bullets Early Nov

By Andrew Jackson

  • New highs for Intuitive Surgical on the success on its Da Vinci surgical robot sets a good tone for Sysmex.
  • R/E related plays including homebuilders jumping with Blackstone +8% in 2-sessions Thurs/Fri.
  • Recruit is rapidly running out of buyback bullets, and while it may reload it is priced to perfection and is looking vulnerable to correction.

Ohayo Japan | U.S. Stocks Closed at Record High

By Mark Chadwick

  • U.S. stocks closed at record highs Friday, continuing a robust streak fueled by Netflix’s strong earnings
  • In commodities, gold prices surged to a record $2,700 per ounce, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amid ongoing Middle East tensions.
  • Essilor Luxottica, the world’s largest eyeglass manufacturer, increased its stake in Nikon from 5.10% to 7.38%

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Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (21st Oct 2024) – Tokyo Metro and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (21st Oct 2024) – Tokyo Metro, China Resources, Horizon Robotics, Hyundai India, Waaree
  • Pre-IPO China Resources Beverage – Due to the Pain Points, High Valuation Is Not Justified


ECM Weekly (21st Oct 2024) – Tokyo Metro, China Resources, Horizon Robotics, Hyundai India, Waaree

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the live IPOs front,  the coming week will see a whole lot of listings across the region.
  • On the placements front, there were mainly deals in Australia this week.

Pre-IPO China Resources Beverage – Due to the Pain Points, High Valuation Is Not Justified

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The whole industry has entered a medium to low-speed growth stage, and the industry’s future growth rate will remain single-digit growth. So, CR Beverage’s future performance decline is inevitable.
  • Due to serious homogenization/competition of packaged drinking water market, there’s not much room for innovation/iteration. CR Beverage’s sales-driven model is hard to bring “new story” to break through the dilemma. 
  • CR Beverage is clearly inferior to Nongfu Spring. Its valuation should be lower than Nongfu Spring. We think reasonable valuation of CR Beverage is about US$4 billion (or lower).

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Fuji Soft (9749 JP): The Board’s Unchanged Recommendation Caps the Upside and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Fuji Soft (9749 JP): The Board’s Unchanged Recommendation Caps the Upside
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.20)-A Big Lesson from China TCM’s Deal Break, “Must Option” of Biotech
  • Fujikura (5803 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying
  • Merger Arb Mondays (21 Oct) – Seven & I, Fuji Soft, Henlius, Canvest, GA Pack, Dyna-Mac
  • Korea Value-Up Index: Estimated Passive Flows as ETF Launches Coming
  • [JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 23.5% on Exedy (7278) – LOTS of Room Left To Run
  • SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions Continue to Outperform; Trim into Strength
  • EQD | Nikkei 225 Option Implied Volatility Analysis – Focus on Bank of Japan Rate Decision Catalyst
  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / Options Mkt. Structural Changes Incoming: 15x Position Limits + 3x Lot Size


Fuji Soft (9749 JP): The Board’s Unchanged Recommendation Caps the Upside

By Arun George

  • The Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP) Board has maintained its recommendation of KKR’s first-stage tender offer. However, the recommendation was not unanimous, with four dissenting directors. 
  • Bain’s likely next move is to waive the precondition and launch its offer. To bring KKR to the negotiating table, Bain will want to acquire as many shares as possible. 
  • KKR’s first stage closes on 21 October. Success requires KKR to either work with Bain or match terms. As shares trade through Bain’s terms, there is little or no upside. 

China Healthcare Weekly (Oct.20)-A Big Lesson from China TCM’s Deal Break, “Must Option” of Biotech

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The “industry clearing”  of innovative drug companies is far longer and more brutal than imagined. But Chinese innovative drug ecosystem will ultimately usher in a better innovation pattern in the future.
  • For every innovative pharmaceutical company with ambitious goals, globalization is a “must option”. With more and more Chinese biotech achieving success, the internationalization prospects will become better and better.
  • China TCM’s privatization failure made us realize large SOEs we always believe in would violate their commitments to market/investors.Now, we need to get back to the fundamentals to minimize losses.

Fujikura (5803 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

By Brian Freitas

  • Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP) could be added to a global index at the end of November and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.
  • Following the rally in the stock, Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP) trades expensive to the average and median of its peers on most valuation metrics.
  • The increase in cumulative excess volume in Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP) over the last 3 months far outpaces the increase in its peers.


Korea Value-Up Index: Estimated Passive Flows as ETF Launches Coming

By Brian Freitas

  • The KRX announced the 100 constituents of the much-awaited Korea Value-Up Index on 24 September. There were hits and misses but broad consensus was that the index is a miss.
  • Following market feedback, the KRX could conduct a special rebalance of the index in December. But this could be after the launch of ETFs tracking the index.
  • With a big overlap and similar characteristics as the KOSPI 200 Index, there could be limited assets benchmarked to the Korea Value-Up Index in the short-term.

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 23.5% on Exedy (7278) – LOTS of Room Left To Run

By Travis Lundy

  • This past week, activist Murakami-san’s City Index Eleventh announced that the companies which jointly report now own 20.3%, which translates to 23.5% of voting rights. Average in-price?  ¥2,928/share.
  • The 2030 Plan from April saw 8% ROE by 2030, 6% by 2026. They’ve since bought back 11% of shares out. Better, but 1/4 of market cap is net cash+securities.
  • If one assumes they spend the net cash+securities to buy back stock 10% higher than here, pro-forma PBR is <0.6x. ROE would be 7+%. There’s room to run here, still. 

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Inclusions Continue to Outperform; Trim into Strength

By Brian Freitas

  • With over 95% of the review period complete, 4 non-constituents are in inclusion zone and 6 constituents are in deletion zone.
  • We estimate one-way turnover of 6.5% at the December rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 11.95bn (US$1.7bn). Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
  • The potential adds have continued to outperform the potential deletes. There has been a big jump in the last few weeks as markets have rallied. Trim positions into strength.

EQD | Nikkei 225 Option Implied Volatility Analysis – Focus on Bank of Japan Rate Decision Catalyst

By Gaudenz Schneider

  • Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) option implied volatility is stabilizing at an elevated level. This Insight analyses term structure, skew, open interest, and more.
  • We identify a tactical option opportunity that profits from the current volatility structure.
  • Are Consumer Price Index and Bank of Japan interest rate decision announcements systematically followed by unusually large market moves? We run the numbers. 

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Options Mkt. Structural Changes Incoming: 15x Position Limits + 3x Lot Size

By Sankalp Singh

  • SEBI-Mandated structural changes continue to percolate through for Options Markets. Position limits & lot sizes have been increased drastically, tilting regulations away from Retail & towards more Institutional participation.
  • IV levels are in the middle of their 12-month ranges. Vol-Regime Model currently in “High & Down” state – grind lower in IVs projected. 
  • In spite of a stronger underlying index, upcoming Bank earnings results have supported BankNifty IVs.  

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains Elevated; ASE Domestic Short Interest Hits Highs and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains Elevated; ASE Domestic Short Interest Hits Highs
  • JD.com (JD US): Boycotted by Male Users, Denies Run on JD Finance
  • Japan Value | Sanwa, Nikon, Nihon Kohden, Maruichi Steel
  • Legochem Biosciences (141080 KS): New ADC Deal Enhances Confidence on ConjuAll Technology Platform
  • CVRX: Great Technology that Now Has a Bright Future
  • China Consumption Weekly (21 Oct 2024): Sun Art, Alibaba, Tesla, JD.com
  • Singamas (716 HK): Positive Readthrough from CIMC
  • Unloved Japan Roundup: Bracing for Q3
  • Kaspi.kz: Kazakhstan’s Super-App Acquiring Turkey’s E-Commerce Leader


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Premium Remains Elevated; ASE Domestic Short Interest Hits Highs

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +18.7% Premium; Trading Range Sustaining at an Elevated Level
  • UMC: -1.8% Discount; Good Level to Go Long the Spread
  • ASE: 0.0% Premium; Good Level to Go Long the Spread

JD.com (JD US): Boycotted by Male Users, Denies Run on JD Finance

By Ming Lu

  • On October 18, JD denies there is a run on JD Finance.
  • Many male users claimed they boycott JD for the invitation of Miss Yang, a talk show celebrity.
  • We believe the event will negatively impact JD and benefit Alibaba.

Japan Value | Sanwa, Nikon, Nihon Kohden, Maruichi Steel

By Mark Chadwick

  • Sanwa Holdings revised its first-half (1H) forecasts, increasing sales estimates from ¥293 billion to ¥313 billion, and operating profit (OP) from ¥25.6 billion to ¥32 billion
  • Essilor’s growing investment in Nikon, with the optical giant increasing its stake from 5.1% to 7.38% in just a few weeks, underscores our bullish view on the name.
  • Nihon Kohden recently revised its first-half (1H24) guidance, raising sales expectations by ¥700 million to ¥102.7 billion and operating profit by ¥2 billion to ¥5 billion. 

Legochem Biosciences (141080 KS): New ADC Deal Enhances Confidence on ConjuAll Technology Platform

By Tina Banerjee

  • Legochem Biosciences (141080 KS) entered into a license agreement with Ono Pharmaceutical for LCB97, a pre-clinical stage ADC targeting solid tumors for an upfront and milestone payment of $700M.
  • Legochem is now pursuing high-value package deals, combining platform and product deals or multi-target product deals. The above-mentioned deal with Ono is the first such package deal.
  • Legochem’s ADC technology platform is seeing rising demand as number of providers decreased (due to recent M&A deals) while big pharmaceutical companies are rapidly expanding their ADC businesses.   

CVRX: Great Technology that Now Has a Bright Future

By Pyari Menon

  • CVRx (CVRX US) was up 19% (including after hours) as the AMA accepted CPT Category I codes for Barostim. Codes are to be implemented on January 1, 2026
  • With Category I CPT codes CVRX should see the benefits of clinical validation, regulatory de-risking, reimbursement potential, increased market access and significant improvement in revenue potential
  • Barostim is the only neuromodulation device for heart failure and resistant hypertension, positioning CVRx as a compelling acquisition target due to its unique technology and strong market potential.

China Consumption Weekly (21 Oct 2024): Sun Art, Alibaba, Tesla, JD.com

By Ming Lu

  • Alibaba is selling Sun Art, a listed supermarket subsidiary, as Sun Art’s revenue is shrinking.
  • Alibaba gained 6 million new retailers on its Taobao Tmall platform year to date.
  • In September Tesla’s sales volume increased by 66% YoY and all major Chinese NEV grew strongly.

Singamas (716 HK): Positive Readthrough from CIMC

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • With its share price returning to HK$0.68 level, the investment value of Singamas Container Holdings (716 HK) has re-emerged.
  • Its competitor, CIMC, has just issued a positive profit alert, indicating an impressive 888.7% and 317.3% growth in reported and recurring earnings, which is positive for Singamas.
  • An 11% growth in the global containership fleet in FY24 is also beneficial to the company. Its net cash of HK$1.65bn equals 1.02x its market capitalisation.

Unloved Japan Roundup: Bracing for Q3

By Michael Allen

  • Mazda’s domestic unit volume was up 24% in September, compared to an industrywide total of only 1.1%.
  • Meanwhile, Q2 consensus EBIT estimates have come down by 32% since the release of Q1 results.
  • But the yield is over 6%, and the Payout ratio is only 17% even on the new estimates.

Kaspi.kz: Kazakhstan’s Super-App Acquiring Turkey’s E-Commerce Leader

By Alec Tseung

  • On Oct 17th, Kaspi.kz, Kazakhstan’s super-app, signed a stock purchase agreement to acquire a 65.4% stake in Hepsiburada, a leading e-commerce platform in Turkey. 
  • The transaction is still subject to regulatory approval; Hepsiburada’s share price in the US increased by ~60% on Friday after the announcement.
  • The acquisition makes a lot of strategic sense which would elevate Kaspi.kz to a position to target a combined market of >100 million population (vs. currently 20 million).

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Daily Brief Macro: An Ominous Sign for U.S. Equity Returns? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • An Ominous Sign for U.S. Equity Returns?
  • Peering into Corporate Financing Conditions in 2025
  • Trump and China: It’s Going to Get Interesting!
  • Some Preliminary Thoughts on Q3 Earning Season
  • Iron Ore Tracker (21-Oct-2024): China Positive Sentiment Waning
  • Copper Tracker Oct 21st, 2024: The China Malaise Sets In
  • South Africa: Medium Term Budget Policy Statement to Be Announced on October 30


An Ominous Sign for U.S. Equity Returns?

By Cam Hui

  • U.S. household equity allocations are becoming extended relative to their own history, which warns of a challenging long-term return outlook.
  • Demographically adjusted allocations are less extended and similar episodes have resolved in either minor pullbacks or sideways consolidations.
  • Equity valuations are stretched compared to bonds and the long-term outlook will depend on the future advances in productivity.

Peering into Corporate Financing Conditions in 2025

By Said Desaque

  • The global economic outlook for 2025 is mixed. Central bank policy rates will be lowered gradually and settle at an underlying level higher than what prevailed before the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • While US markets are discounting a soft landing, financing conditions for corporations next year will be impacted by the magnitude of the slowdown and the prospective conduct of fiscal policy.
  • Conditions in the Eurozone are expected to improve next year, while the outlook for refinancing activity in the Asia Pacific remains nuanced, courtesy of differing regional central bank policy outlooks.

Trump and China: It’s Going to Get Interesting!

By David Mudd

  • China’s trade is growing strongly and has become less dependent on the US.  The EU and Mexico now exceed China’s monthly exports to the US.
  • Taiwan as a flashpoint between the US and China will decline in coming years as each country ramps up its semiconductor manufacturing capabilities.
  • Tariffs and the Yuan will be important negotiating points between the US and China, but the good news is they will be talking.

Some Preliminary Thoughts on Q3 Earning Season

By Cam Hui

  • The tactical bullish set-up that we outlined last week has triggered a buy signal.
  • Diverse leadership by financial, industrial and technology stocks points to further gains in stock prices.
  • Investors should be aware of the key risk of earnings disappointment during Q3 earnings season, and signs of resurgent inflation that puts upward pressure on interest rates.

Iron Ore Tracker (21-Oct-2024): China Positive Sentiment Waning

By Sameer Taneja

  • After a brief spell of iron ore prices rising to 108 USD/ton, prices have retraced to 102 USD/ton (-3% WoW) but remain broadly in the 95-130 USD/ton band.
  • Investors were disappointed with China’s announced stimulus measures, citing their vagueness and lack of a specific timetable, resulting in the positive sentiment waning over the last two weeks.
  • We update investors on Vale’s (VALE US) recent proposal to the government to settle the Mariana Dam disaster.

Copper Tracker Oct 21st, 2024: The China Malaise Sets In

By Sameer Taneja

  • Copper prices were down slightly, WoW, by 0.3% YoY, as the effect of China’s stimulus plan announcements waned, with investors viewing them more skeptically.
  • With 58% of the metal’s demand arising from China, we expect the short-term malaise to be felt unless China makes punchier fiscal stimulus announcements soon. 
  • We believe high-quality equities like Southern Copper (SCCO US) and Ivanhoe Mines (IVN CN) will continue to be resilient and prefer exposure to copper in those names.

South Africa: Medium Term Budget Policy Statement to Be Announced on October 30

By Alex Ng

  • The coalition government will announce its first Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in Parliament on October 30.
  • It is anticipated to set government policy goals and priorities and forecast macroeconomic trajectory and the fiscal framework over the next three years.
  • We continue to think the fiscal deficit in South Africa is projected to remain elevated contributing both to the GDP and inflation prospects, given rising debt service.

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Daily Brief Australia: Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Iron Ore Tracker (21-Oct-2024): China Positive Sentiment Waning


Iron Ore Tracker (21-Oct-2024): China Positive Sentiment Waning

By Sameer Taneja

  • After a brief spell of iron ore prices rising to 108 USD/ton, prices have retraced to 102 USD/ton (-3% WoW) but remain broadly in the 95-130 USD/ton band.
  • Investors were disappointed with China’s announced stimulus measures, citing their vagueness and lack of a specific timetable, resulting in the positive sentiment waning over the last two weeks.
  • We update investors on Vale’s (VALE US) recent proposal to the government to settle the Mariana Dam disaster.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Shinhan Financial, Legochem Biosciences and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Value-Up Index: Estimated Passive Flows as ETF Launches Coming
  • Legochem Biosciences (141080 KS): New ADC Deal Enhances Confidence on ConjuAll Technology Platform


Korea Value-Up Index: Estimated Passive Flows as ETF Launches Coming

By Brian Freitas

  • The KRX announced the 100 constituents of the much-awaited Korea Value-Up Index on 24 September. There were hits and misses but broad consensus was that the index is a miss.
  • Following market feedback, the KRX could conduct a special rebalance of the index in December. But this could be after the launch of ETFs tracking the index.
  • With a big overlap and similar characteristics as the KOSPI 200 Index, there could be limited assets benchmarked to the Korea Value-Up Index in the short-term.

Legochem Biosciences (141080 KS): New ADC Deal Enhances Confidence on ConjuAll Technology Platform

By Tina Banerjee

  • Legochem Biosciences (141080 KS) entered into a license agreement with Ono Pharmaceutical for LCB97, a pre-clinical stage ADC targeting solid tumors for an upfront and milestone payment of $700M.
  • Legochem is now pursuing high-value package deals, combining platform and product deals or multi-target product deals. The above-mentioned deal with Ono is the first such package deal.
  • Legochem’s ADC technology platform is seeing rising demand as number of providers decreased (due to recent M&A deals) while big pharmaceutical companies are rapidly expanding their ADC businesses.   

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