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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Consumer: Perfect Medical Health, Inageya Co Ltd, KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF, Nameson Holdings, ADT , Under Armour, Global-e Online , Inter Parfums and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Perfect Medical: Post Card From HK, Yield of 11.5%
  • Inageya (8182 JP): Share Exchange Offer from USMH (3222 JP)
  • KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Sands China, Yuexiu Property
  • ADT Inc.: Can The Google Partnership Become A Potential Game Changer? – Major Drivers
  • Under Armour: Are The Significant Leadership Changes Bringing A Lot Of Uncertainty? – Major Drivers
  • Global-e Online Ltd: Is Its Future Outlook Promising Enough To Warrant A Bullish Rating? – Major Drivers
  • IPAR: The Catalyst of Growth


Perfect Medical: Post Card From HK, Yield of 11.5%

By Sameer Taneja

  • Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), post a correction of consumer discretionary stocks in HK, now trades at a yield of 11.5%, with cash&investments representing 24% of the market cap.
  • HK is experiencing a dip in consumer sentiment, and the company isn’t immune to it, but flat sales/profitability, a 24% net margin, and >40% ROE provide great margin of safety.
  • The stock trades at 9.3x FY24 PE and 11.5% yield (assuming a 110% payout average across company history) with a growth option once the HK economy kickstarts.

Inageya (8182 JP): Share Exchange Offer from USMH (3222 JP)

By Arun George

  • Inageya Co Ltd (8182 JP) announced a share exchange offer by United Super Markets (3222 JP) at 1.46 USMH shares per Inageya share.
  • The share exchange aligns with Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s well-flagged intention of making Inageya a wholly-owned subsidiary of USMH.
  • Aeon’s 50%+ shareholding in Inageya and USMH facilitates the two EGM votes. The deal metrics are broadly fair for both sets of shareholders. 

KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

By Douglas Busch

  • KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.
  • Toyota>Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.
  • JD>BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Sands China, Yuexiu Property

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


ADT Inc.: Can The Google Partnership Become A Potential Game Changer? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The full-year 2023 earnings of ADT revealed notable developments and financial figures in its operation highlights.
  • The company has seen a solid performance, with investments for its future and a shift towards its core security and smart home business as primary focuses.
  • The plan to exit its residential solar business promises simplicity and concentration on expanding its consumer oriented model.

Under Armour: Are The Significant Leadership Changes Bringing A Lot Of Uncertainty? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Under Armour Inc.’s Q3 2024 earnings revealed a challenging retail environment and uneven consumer behavior across markets.
  • Despite the difficulties, the company achieved Q3 results aligned with November projections, better-than-expected earnings, and has made substantial progress in boosting global demand and simplifying consumer interactions.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Global-e Online Ltd: Is Its Future Outlook Promising Enough To Warrant A Bullish Rating? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Global-e Online Ltd.
  • announced its fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results and we would term the outcome as largely optimistic, yet grounded in the challenging macroeconomic conditions of the past year.
  • The company concluded 2023 strongly, with the fourth quarter being its most successful to date.

IPAR: The Catalyst of Growth

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IPAR has started 2024 with what could be described as relaunching of the Lacoste fragrance line after IPAR encountered under investment by the previous licensee
  • There is increased investor concern consumer appetite for fragrances could wane even though so far there has been little sign of it
  • Specific to Lacoste, we expect greater excitement when IPAR releases its first fragrance for the brand later this year

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Daily Brief Thailand: Fabrinet and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • Fabrinet – Fabrinet: A Tale Of Rapid Growth in Datacom Driven by AI Applications! – Major Drivers


Fabrinet – Fabrinet: A Tale Of Rapid Growth in Datacom Driven by AI Applications! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fabrinet’s recent earnings included a new record set for second quarter revenue and EPS due to rapid growth in datacom, driven specifically by next-gen AI interconnect, with revenue at $712.7 million, an increase of 7% from the previous year and 4% from the first quarter.
  • However, telecom revenue remained impacted by inventory absorption in the ecosystem – a possible note of concern.
  • The company expects telecom revenue to slightly increase in the third quarter as newer optical communication technologies, like extended reach pluggable optics, have seen increasing demand.

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Daily Brief Australia: Azure Minerals, Telix Pharmaceuticals and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Azure Min’s (AZS AU)’s “Boost” As Gina Ups Stake in Lynas
  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Accelerated US Growth in 1Q24; Two More US Launches Likely in 2024


Azure Min’s (AZS AU)’s “Boost” As Gina Ups Stake in Lynas

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 8th April, Azure Minerals (AZS AU) shareholders overwhelmingly approved the Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM US)/Gina Rhinehart’s Hancock transaction. Shares promptly closed down 7% on regulatory approval fears.
  • Those fears are unwarranted. China’s Tianqi Lithium would indirectly own just ~11% in Azure post-deal.  China has recently lifted anti-dumping tariffs on a range of Aussie products. FIRB won’t block.
  • An expected approval may have spurred Gina to buy more shares in Lynas (LYC AU). Why buy now if FIRB dings Azure; that outcome would push the whole sector lower.

Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU): Accelerated US Growth in 1Q24; Two More US Launches Likely in 2024

By Tina Banerjee

  • Telix Pharmaceuticals (TLX AU) reported 18% QoQ revenue growth in 1Q24. The U.S. revenue growth accelerated to 18% QoQ in 1Q24, compared to 11% in 4Q23 and 13% in 3Q23.
  • Telix reaffirmed guidance and expects 2024 revenue of $445–465M, representing 35–40% YoY increase. The current quarterly U.S. revenue run-rate of Illuccix matches the lower end of the guidance.
  • Telix is on track to launch three products in U.S. this year. Two of them have an estimated initial market opportunity of $600–640M, with upside potential from indication expansions.

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Daily Brief India: Aadhar Housing Finance Ltd and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Aadhar Housing Finance Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Growth Picking Up


Aadhar Housing Finance Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Growth Picking Up

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aadhar Housing Finance (AHF) is now looking to raise around US$600m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
  • AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.
  • In this note, we look at the updates from the company’s recent filings.

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Daily Brief United States: PAR Technology , Immersion Corporation, Kbr Inc, AppFolio Inc A, SentinelOne , Flame Acquisition , DoubleVerify, Bitcoin, Dolby Laboratories Inc Cl A, HighPeak Energy Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Greenhaven Road’s Scott Miller shares his thoughts on point of sale business, PAR Technologies $PAR
  • IMMR: New Investment and the Impact
  • KBR Inc.: How Significant Is The Upside In Government Solutions? – Major Drivers
  • AppFolio Inc.: Advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) & 3 Key Growth Levers
  • SentinelOne Inc.: Is Its Focus On Key Areas Of Competitive Strength Paying Off? – Major Drivers
  • Flame Acqn Corp – Redh (FLME) – Thursday, Jan 18, 2024
  • DoubleVerify Holdings: The Meta Opportunity & 3 Other Critical Growth Drivers
  • Crypto Moves #24 – Bitcoin Is A Safe Haven When There’s Nothing to Worry About
  • Dolby Laboratories: Growth in Dolby Atmos
  • HighPeak Energy, Inc. -Moderating Growth for Free Cash Flow Generation


Greenhaven Road’s Scott Miller shares his thoughts on point of sale business, PAR Technologies $PAR

By Yet Another Value Podcast

  • Interview with Scott Miller, CIO at Greenhaven discussing Par technologies and recent developments
  • Par technologies is a stable point of sale software company focused on food services industry
  • Company has shown strong progress in organic growth and acquisitions, with potential for further upside in the stock market

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


IMMR: New Investment and the Impact

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IMMR is using the gains from Q124 to make an investment in BNED. IMMR intends to invest $45 million to purchase new shares at $0.05 per share.
  • IMMR’s stock continues to trade at a slight premium to cash even though the operating business has continued to expand in auto
  • IMMR disclosed it ended the first quarter of 2024 with approximately $200 million in shareholder equity. This would equate to a sequential increase of approximately $17 million

KBR Inc.: How Significant Is The Upside In Government Solutions? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • KBR, Inc. achieved solid results in the Q4 and FY 2023, meeting or exceeding expectations on all key metrics.
  • Revenue grew by 11%, and adjusted EBITDA by 12% year-on-year, with margins increasing to 10.7%.
  • Cash management was a highlight, with the company settling both the convert and warrants in cash, reducing share count while avoiding dilution, and management described it as ‘delivering on its commitment to maximise shareholder return.’ The company ended the year with a good order backlog, providing visibility of future earnings potential.

AppFolio Inc.: Advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) & 3 Key Growth Levers

By Baptista Research

  • AppFolio, Inc. has shown a steady growth pattern in its fourth quarter of 2023, which according to the results, has been due to a sharp expansion in innovation alongside profitable growth.
  • In the final quarter, the revenue of the company increased by 39% year over year reaching $172 million.
  • This steady surge has contributed to an annual increase of 31%, pushing the total to $620 million.

SentinelOne Inc.: Is Its Focus On Key Areas Of Competitive Strength Paying Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • SentinelOne closed the year with stellar performance, surpassing its fourth-quarter expectations across all metrics, including revenue, gross margin, and operating margin.
  • Moreover, the company reported its annual recurring revenue (ARR) grew by 39% year-over-year to $724 million, primarily due to new customer acquisitions and strong expansion rates.
  • The growing interest in AI-powered security solutions, driven by the rising incidence of cyberattacks, is resulting in robust demand for SentinelOne’s offerings.

Flame Acqn Corp – Redh (FLME) – Thursday, Jan 18, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Flame Acquisition Corp (FLME) is merging with Sable Offshore in a $1 billion deal to acquire and revive oil and gas assets in California
  • Strong investment demand seen with SPAC shares trading above cash value and $520 million raised in PIPE capital
  • Deal offers high-quality asset, access to infrastructure, attractive pricing, strong balance sheet, and capable management team, with a 30-50% discount to peers and limited downside risk pre-deal close

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


DoubleVerify Holdings: The Meta Opportunity & 3 Other Critical Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc. continues to deliver decent results.
  • Revenues, which increased by 27% to reach $572.5 million, underlined DoubleVerify’s successful third year as a public company.
  • Additionally, the company’s platform processed over seven trillion billable media transactions across various digital media devices and formats.

Crypto Moves #24 – Bitcoin Is A Safe Haven When There’s Nothing to Worry About

By Mads Eberhardt

  • In issue #17 of Crypto Moves, we described MicroStrategy’s co-founder and Chairman, Michael Saylor, as today’s Satoshi Nakamoto when it comes to Bitcoin narratives.
  • While Satoshi Nakamoto was the creator of Bitcoin and the miner of its genesis block, Michael Saylor has emerged as a key leader in the last few years, promoting and supporting the current narratives that have driven Bitcoin to new peaks.
  • These narratives have primarily centered on Bitcoin being a store of value, especially as an inflation hedge and a safe haven during economic crises and geopolitical instability.

Dolby Laboratories: Growth in Dolby Atmos

By Baptista Research

  • Dolby Laboratories saw revenue for the quarter in line with expectations, and earnings better than anticipated.
  • This positive update on earnings should please investors and cement confidence in Dolby’s financial stability.
  • The company highlighted three key points: the macro-economic environment, the company’s business and product momentum, and some closing thoughts.

HighPeak Energy, Inc. -Moderating Growth for Free Cash Flow Generation

By Water Tower Research

  • HighPeak has pivoted its FY24 development plan to concentrate on free cash flow generation from growth.
  • Our updated adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow estimates, incorporating NYMEX reference prices of $79.19/bbl for oil and $2.33/MMBtu for natural gas, are $858 million and $168 million, respectively.
  • FY23 free cash flow was negative $271 million.

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Daily Brief China: Perfect Medical Health, Mobvoi, KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF, Prosus NV, ENN Energy, Zhubajie Co Ltd, Pacific Basin Shipping, Nameson Holdings and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Perfect Medical: Post Card From HK, Yield of 11.5%
  • Upcoming Mobvoi’s Debut: Downsized IPO Despite Hyper-Growth In AIGC Business Segment
  • KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed
  • NPN X PRX: Discounts Widen as Fed Pivots on Rate Outlook
  • ENN Energy – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics
  • Zhubajie Pre-IPO – Profitability Looks like a Long Shot
  • Pacific Basin (2343 HK): The Market Is Overly Conservative
  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Sands China, Yuexiu Property


Perfect Medical: Post Card From HK, Yield of 11.5%

By Sameer Taneja

  • Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), post a correction of consumer discretionary stocks in HK, now trades at a yield of 11.5%, with cash&investments representing 24% of the market cap.
  • HK is experiencing a dip in consumer sentiment, and the company isn’t immune to it, but flat sales/profitability, a 24% net margin, and >40% ROE provide great margin of safety.
  • The stock trades at 9.3x FY24 PE and 11.5% yield (assuming a 110% payout average across company history) with a growth option once the HK economy kickstarts.

Upcoming Mobvoi’s Debut: Downsized IPO Despite Hyper-Growth In AIGC Business Segment

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Mobvoi, an emerging AIGC market player in China, set terms for an IPO and plans to raise ~HK$330M (~$42M) in Hong Kong. CICC and CMB International are leading the offering.
  • The initial public offering is expected to be between HK$3.70 and HK$4.10. At the midpoint of the range, Mobvoi has a market value of ~HK$5.8B based on 1491.5M outstanding shares.
  • In my insight, I discuss valuation framework for comparable company analysis and outline revenue growth scenarios for each business segment under my base case.

KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

By Douglas Busch

  • KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.
  • Toyota>Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.
  • JD>BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.

NPN X PRX: Discounts Widen as Fed Pivots on Rate Outlook

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • The discounts of both Naspers and Prosus have widened during the last 5 trading sessions.
  • We see current levels as attractive entry points for trading the rump.
  • In our view, there are a number of fundamental factors that could act as positive catalysts to a further structural narrowing of the discount.

ENN Energy – Tear Sheet – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

We view ENN Energy as “Low Risk” on the LARA scale. This reflects the company’s large scale and diversified business profile across Mainland China as well as its robust financial position, with low leverage. These are balanced against ENN Energy’s exposure to commodity price risks and potential changes in government policies. In addition, the company has ongoing related-party transactions.

Our fundamental Credit Bias on ENN Energy is “Stable”, supported by the defensive nature of the industry and the company’s good cash-flow generation. ENN Energy has maintained c. 1.0x net leverage over the past five years.

Controversies are “Immaterial” and the ESG Impact on Credit is “Neutral”. While natural gas is a fossil fuel, it has a lower carbon footprint compared to coal, and has been regarded as a “transition fuel” for countries currently dependent on coal (e.g. China and Indonesia). This will likely support strong gas demand over the next decade, particularly in developing countries.

We have a “Hold” recommendation on the XINAOG notes, with the 2.625 ’30s at 83.9/5.6%/5.7 years.


Zhubajie Pre-IPO – Profitability Looks like a Long Shot

By Ethan Aw

  • Zhubajie Co Ltd (ZHUHKZ HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Zhubajie (ZBJ) is a customized enterprise services e-commerce platform in China. The firm focuses on matching and facilitating the transactions between enterprise clients and service providers through its ZBJ platform.
  • In this note, we talk about the firm’s historical performance.

Pacific Basin (2343 HK): The Market Is Overly Conservative

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK) just announced a US$40m buyback which equals 2.5% of market capitalisation, showcasing management’s confidence in the outlook.
  • At end-1Q24, it covered 68% of FY24 Handysize days at US$10,960/day and 78% of Supermax days at US$13,370/day, leaving significant room to capture the upside in 2H24.
  • Market consensus looks overly conservative with FY24 earnings of US$154m, given BDI of 1,808 YTD. The average half-year BDI and net profit since 1H20 is 1,822 and US$189m.  

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Sands China, Yuexiu Property

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Japan: Shinko Electric Industries, Inageya Co Ltd, Softbank Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity
  • Inageya (8182 JP): Share Exchange Offer from USMH (3222 JP)
  • SoftBank (9984 JP): Arm Out-Stretched (On Valuation) And Is JPY Depreciation Largely Done?


Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity

By Arun George

  • Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread widened from a low of 3.1% on 14 March to 7.0%. 
  • The widening spread can be attributed to China SAMR approval timing, earnings risk, Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)’s material underperformance lowering the break price and a large fund liquidating positions. 
  • The deal break risks remain low with the timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add. 

Inageya (8182 JP): Share Exchange Offer from USMH (3222 JP)

By Arun George

  • Inageya Co Ltd (8182 JP) announced a share exchange offer by United Super Markets (3222 JP) at 1.46 USMH shares per Inageya share.
  • The share exchange aligns with Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s well-flagged intention of making Inageya a wholly-owned subsidiary of USMH.
  • Aeon’s 50%+ shareholding in Inageya and USMH facilitates the two EGM votes. The deal metrics are broadly fair for both sets of shareholders. 

SoftBank (9984 JP): Arm Out-Stretched (On Valuation) And Is JPY Depreciation Largely Done?

By Victor Galliano

  • Arm – which we estimate accounts for 45% of SoftBank group’s equity value – is experiencing limits to its “growth at any price” stock status; the shares fell 12% yesterday
  • The JPY’s depreciation is supportive of the group NAV, but with the Fed’s hawkish stance well known and BoJ expected to raise interest rates, JPY weakness may be largely done
  • SoftBank shares trade at a wide 53%+ discount to the estimated NAV; yet we see downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with the potential for JPY weakness to reverse

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Most Read: Shinko Electric Industries, JSR Corp, Celltrion Inc, Perfect Medical Health, Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical, Azure Minerals, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Inageya Co Ltd, Softbank Group and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Update
  • JSR (4185) – Deal Done, Now Back End Arbs Need To Be Card Counters
  • Locals Driving Corporate Reforms and 10 Korean Companies Recently Announcing Share Cancellations
  • Perfect Medical: Post Card From HK, Yield of 11.5%
  • ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Overlap Between the Indices
  • Azure Min’s (AZS AU)’s “Boost” As Gina Ups Stake in Lynas
  • What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?
  • Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity
  • Inageya (8182 JP): Share Exchange Offer from USMH (3222 JP)
  • SoftBank (9984 JP): Arm Out-Stretched (On Valuation) And Is JPY Depreciation Largely Done?


Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Update

By Travis Lundy

  • When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider. 
  • 12wks ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco’d a buy. Then 5wks ago, reco’d trimming.
  • Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, and gross spreads had come in 5+% on JSR’s approval. Spreads are now 3% wider than their narrowest, but gap risk has widened as Shinko outperforms.

JSR (4185) – Deal Done, Now Back End Arbs Need To Be Card Counters

By Travis Lundy

  • Today after the close, the results of the JSR Corp (4185 JP) Tender Offer were announced. Bidco JICC-02 obtained 84.36% of the shares out in the Tender Offer. 
  • That means imminent index downweights, delayed index downweights, and theoretically another selldown on the last day of listed existence. 
  • News which came up since the start of the Tender Offer make this a little more difficult than it might have otherwise been. 

Locals Driving Corporate Reforms and 10 Korean Companies Recently Announcing Share Cancellations

By Douglas Kim

  • In a recent discussion with a client, one of the questions that was raised was regarding the impact the local investors are having on the corporate governance reforms in Korea.
  • The number of local investors in the Korean stock market has jumped in the past few years from 5.3 million in 2017 to 14.4 million in 2022.
  • All in all, I think Korea is about 3-5 years behind Japan in various corporate governance reforms. So it has a lot of catching up to do.

Perfect Medical: Post Card From HK, Yield of 11.5%

By Sameer Taneja

  • Perfect Medical Health (1830 HK), post a correction of consumer discretionary stocks in HK, now trades at a yield of 11.5%, with cash&investments representing 24% of the market cap.
  • HK is experiencing a dip in consumer sentiment, and the company isn’t immune to it, but flat sales/profitability, a 24% net margin, and >40% ROE provide great margin of safety.
  • The stock trades at 9.3x FY24 PE and 11.5% yield (assuming a 110% payout average across company history) with a growth option once the HK economy kickstarts.

ChiNext/​​​ChiNext50 Index Rebalance Preview: Plenty of Overlap Between the Indices

By Brian Freitas

  • Nearing the end of the review period, we forecast 8 changes for the ChiNext Index (SZ399006 INDEX) and 5 changes for the ChiNext 50 Index in June.
  • There are overlapping names for the two indices and some of the stocks will also have flows from the CSI Smallcap 500 Index – Shang (SH000905 INDEX) trackers.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes between 9-10% for both indices over the last month with the deletes dropping a lot more than the adds.

Azure Min’s (AZS AU)’s “Boost” As Gina Ups Stake in Lynas

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 8th April, Azure Minerals (AZS AU) shareholders overwhelmingly approved the Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM US)/Gina Rhinehart’s Hancock transaction. Shares promptly closed down 7% on regulatory approval fears.
  • Those fears are unwarranted. China’s Tianqi Lithium would indirectly own just ~11% in Azure post-deal.  China has recently lifted anti-dumping tariffs on a range of Aussie products. FIRB won’t block.
  • An expected approval may have spurred Gina to buy more shares in Lynas (LYC AU). Why buy now if FIRB dings Azure; that outcome would push the whole sector lower.

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

By Andrew Lu

  • TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.
  • No more Moore’s Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
  • Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity

By Arun George

  • Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread widened from a low of 3.1% on 14 March to 7.0%. 
  • The widening spread can be attributed to China SAMR approval timing, earnings risk, Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)’s material underperformance lowering the break price and a large fund liquidating positions. 
  • The deal break risks remain low with the timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add. 

Inageya (8182 JP): Share Exchange Offer from USMH (3222 JP)

By Arun George

  • Inageya Co Ltd (8182 JP) announced a share exchange offer by United Super Markets (3222 JP) at 1.46 USMH shares per Inageya share.
  • The share exchange aligns with Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s well-flagged intention of making Inageya a wholly-owned subsidiary of USMH.
  • Aeon’s 50%+ shareholding in Inageya and USMH facilitates the two EGM votes. The deal metrics are broadly fair for both sets of shareholders. 

SoftBank (9984 JP): Arm Out-Stretched (On Valuation) And Is JPY Depreciation Largely Done?

By Victor Galliano

  • Arm – which we estimate accounts for 45% of SoftBank group’s equity value – is experiencing limits to its “growth at any price” stock status; the shares fell 12% yesterday
  • The JPY’s depreciation is supportive of the group NAV, but with the Fed’s hawkish stance well known and BoJ expected to raise interest rates, JPY weakness may be largely done
  • SoftBank shares trade at a wide 53%+ discount to the estimated NAV; yet we see downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with the potential for JPY weakness to reverse

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Daily Brief ECM: Upcoming Mobvoi’s Debut: Downsized IPO Despite Hyper-Growth In AIGC Business Segment and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Upcoming Mobvoi’s Debut: Downsized IPO Despite Hyper-Growth In AIGC Business Segment
  • Aadhar Housing Finance Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Growth Picking Up
  • Zhubajie Pre-IPO – Profitability Looks like a Long Shot


Upcoming Mobvoi’s Debut: Downsized IPO Despite Hyper-Growth In AIGC Business Segment

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Mobvoi, an emerging AIGC market player in China, set terms for an IPO and plans to raise ~HK$330M (~$42M) in Hong Kong. CICC and CMB International are leading the offering.
  • The initial public offering is expected to be between HK$3.70 and HK$4.10. At the midpoint of the range, Mobvoi has a market value of ~HK$5.8B based on 1491.5M outstanding shares.
  • In my insight, I discuss valuation framework for comparable company analysis and outline revenue growth scenarios for each business segment under my base case.

Aadhar Housing Finance Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Growth Picking Up

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aadhar Housing Finance (AHF) is now looking to raise around US$600m in its India IPO, via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares.
  • AHF is focused on the low income housing segments (ticket size less than INR1.5m) in India. It offers a range of mortgage-related loan products.
  • In this note, we look at the updates from the company’s recent filings.

Zhubajie Pre-IPO – Profitability Looks like a Long Shot

By Ethan Aw

  • Zhubajie Co Ltd (ZHUHKZ HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Zhubajie (ZBJ) is a customized enterprise services e-commerce platform in China. The firm focuses on matching and facilitating the transactions between enterprise clients and service providers through its ZBJ platform.
  • In this note, we talk about the firm’s historical performance.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: KWEB Attractive and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed


KWEB Attractive, Toyota and JD.com Best in Breed

By Douglas Busch

  • KWEB giving an attractive entry point here, as it begins to outperform the domestic FDN.
  • Toyota>Honda and look for that relationship to continue going forward.
  • JD>BABA, a new dynamic divergence between the two, and my opinion is JD will be the leader in 2024 and beyond.

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