Daily Briefs

• TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.
• No more Moore’s Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
• Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.

• Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread widened from a low of 3.1% on 14 March to 7.0%. 
• The widening spread can be attributed to China SAMR approval timing, earnings risk, Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)’s material underperformance lowering the break price and a large fund liquidating positions. 
• The deal break risks remain low with the timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add. 

• Arm – which we estimate accounts for 45% of SoftBank group’s equity value – is experiencing limits to its “growth at any price” stock status; the shares fell 12% yesterday
• The JPY’s depreciation is supportive of the group NAV, but with the Fed’s hawkish stance well known and BoJ expected to raise interest rates, JPY weakness may be largely done
• SoftBank shares trade at a wide 53%+ discount to the estimated NAV; yet we see downside risks to Arm’s valuation, along with the potential for JPY weakness to reverse

• Mobvoi, an emerging AIGC market player in China, set terms for an IPO and plans to raise ~HK$330M (~$42M) in Hong Kong. CICC and CMB International are leading the offering.
• The initial public offering is expected to be between HK$3.70 and HK$4.10. At the midpoint of the range, Mobvoi has a market value of ~HK$5.8B based on 1491.5M outstanding shares.
• In my insight, I discuss valuation framework for comparable company analysis and outline revenue growth scenarios for each business segment under my base case.

• Declaring a slower recovery for mature nodes was an outlier, indicating that Vanguard’s recovery progress might be slower. 
• Apple’s iPhone is expected to be the focus for N2 production in 4Q15F.  
• TSMC’s long-term gross margin is set at 53%, signifying a few key points. 

• The discounts of both Naspers and Prosus have widened during the last 5 trading sessions.
• We see current levels as attractive entry points for trading the rump.
• In our view, there are a number of fundamental factors that could act as positive catalysts to a further structural narrowing of the discount.

• Interview with Scott Miller, CIO at Greenhaven discussing Par technologies and recent developments
• Par technologies is a stable point of sale software company focused on food services industry
• Company has shown strong progress in organic growth and acquisitions, with potential for further upside in the stock market

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• IMMR is using the gains from Q124 to make an investment in BNED. IMMR intends to invest $45 million to purchase new shares at $0.05 per share.
• IMMR’s stock continues to trade at a slight premium to cash even though the operating business has continued to expand in auto
• IMMR disclosed it ended the first quarter of 2024 with approximately $200 million in shareholder equity. This would equate to a sequential increase of approximately $17 million

• Wix reported strong Q4 2023 earnings underpinned by its pivot to AI innovation.
• 2023 was a year of significant progress for the firm as it demonstrated robust growth, reaching record profitability levels.
• With the focus on AI, Wix introduced an array of AI-powered features that would help users create web content more efficiently, resulting in improved monetization and heightened user conversion rates.

• Zhubajie Co Ltd (ZHUHKZ HK) is looking to raise at least US$100m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
• Zhubajie (ZBJ) is a customized enterprise services e-commerce platform in China. The firm focuses on matching and facilitating the transactions between enterprise clients and service providers through its ZBJ platform.
• In this note, we talk about the firm’s historical performance.