Category

Daily Briefs

Apr 20
0

Daily Brief Health Care: OSE Immuno and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • OSE Immunotherapeutics – AbbVie deal clears antitrust hurdle

OSE Immunotherapeutics – AbbVie deal clears antitrust hurdle

By Edison Investment Research

OSE has announced that its licence agreement with AbbVie has cleared antitrust review and has become effective. As previously noted, this is expected to support OSE’s runway extension into 2026, past key milestones and readouts for in-house assets Tedopi (non-small cell lung cancer, US Phase III trials expected to commence in Q224) and Lusvertikimab (ulcerative colitis, Phase II readouts expected in mid-2024). Following the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) mandatory waiting period, OSE is expected to receive the negotiated US$48m upfront payment from AbbVie imminently, as part of its global licence and collaboration agreement for its pre-clinical asset OSE-230, a novel monoclonal antibody being developed for the treatment of chronic and severe inflammation. OSE is also entitled to receive up to US$665m in incremental (milestone) payments as part of the deal.

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Apr 20
0

Daily Brief Financials: KKR & Co, S&P 500 INDEX, Mizuho Financial Group, Foxtons and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 June 2024 – Minimal Changes Expected but Intrareview Changes Possible
  • EQD | S&P500 Futures (ES) Deeply Oversold WEEKLY, Reversal (Probably) Imminent
  • Potential Domestic Rate Hike Impacts Highlighted in the BoJ’s Latest Financial System Report
  • Foxtons Group – FY24 underpinned by market share gains

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 June 2024 – Minimal Changes Expected but Intrareview Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • The index is reviewed quarterly. The next review will be in June 2024 and the evaluation date for the rankings for the constituent selection process is 6th June 2024.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs and Potential DELs for the June 2024 index rebal event and the intra-review ADDs/DELs.

EQD | S&P500 Futures (ES) Deeply Oversold WEEKLY, Reversal (Probably) Imminent

By Nico Rosti

  • The S&P500 has been falling for 3 weeks and 6 days, it is very oversold.
  • The current Market Reversal Matrix pattern suggests a high probability LONG trade for this coming week and the next.
  • The support price area where to enter LONG is the 4950-4900 but also higher prices between 5000 and 4950 could be a good entry point, although a bit riskier.

Potential Domestic Rate Hike Impacts Highlighted in the BoJ’s Latest Financial System Report

By Victor Galliano

  • The Financial System Report published on April 18th focuses on the key Japanese bank issues, including the prospect of domestic rate hikes
  • We focus primarily on the key take-aways from the BoJ report, in particular with relation to potential rate hikes; our key picks appear to be better geared than the average
  • We highlight Resona, Mizuho and Concordia in the bigger caps, with positive views on Suruga, Gunma and Tokyo Kiraboshi in the regional banks

Foxtons Group – FY24 underpinned by market share gains

By Edison Investment Research

Foxtons Group’s Q1 revenue grew by 9%, supported by growth in all three divisions as the strategic initiatives continue to gain significant momentum, driven by investment in staff, best-in-class bespoke IT and data platforms. This implies that Foxtons’ medium-term targets are now coming into focus. Market share is being gained in all divisions, which puts Foxtons in a good position as the sales market stabilises. We maintain our valuation of 132p/share and believe that if interest rates stabilise or ease further, there are upside risks to our forecasts.

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Apr 20
0

Daily Brief Consumer: China Tourism Group Duty Free, Vinfast, Nike, Muyuan Foodstuff Co Ltd A, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, Adeia, Kellogg Co, Betterware de Mexico Sab de CV, Abercrombie & Fitch Co Cl A and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK):  Headwinds Persist
  • Vinfast (VFS US) – Some Respite from the US
  • Nike Inc.: A Tale Of Brand Elevation Through Greater Market Presence! – Major Drivers
  • Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors
  • More Companies Will Choose to Go Private Because They Can’t Find an Effective Use for Their Cash
  • ADEA: Not Just Another Licensing Deal
  • WK Kellogg Co: Positive Price/Mix and Revenue Growth Management Initiatives! – Major Drivers
  • BWMX: 1Q Preview: Moving to the Offensive; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT
  • AKA: Initiating Coverage of a.k.a. Brands with Buy and $14 PT: Upside Ahead

China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK):  Headwinds Persist

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Since my previous insight on China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) in October 2023, the stock has declined 33%, and year-to-date, the stock has declined 13%.
  • The company faces headwinds from continued overall weakness in Hainan duty free sales and potentially increased competition in Hainan.
  • The company already announced preliminary 1Q24 results, with sales down 9% yoy and net profit flat.  The company is trading at 18x 2024 earnings.

Vinfast (VFS US) – Some Respite from the US

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Vinfast (VFS US) released 1Q2023 results, with its revenues increasing three-fold YoY but falling QoQ due to the seasonal impact of Lunar New Year on both EVs and EV motorbikes.
  • The company saw a significant pick up in its sales to the US and continued to increase its dealer network which should drive future sales along with new models.
  • More than half of Vinfast sales were to related parties, which is an overhang in terms of the sustainability of its business models, whilst valuations remain above peers.

Nike Inc.: A Tale Of Brand Elevation Through Greater Market Presence! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In the Q3 2024 earnings, NIKE, Inc. outlined how it is driving growth despite not performing to its potential.
  • The company is focusing on four key areas: a sharpened focus on sport, continuous product innovation, bolder and more distinctive brand marketing, and collaboration with wholesale partners to expand the marketplace.
  • A significant measure of progress is the alignment of the organization to focus on the consumer and sport.

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

By Joe Jasper

  • A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.
  • Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.
  • ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.

More Companies Will Choose to Go Private Because They Can’t Find an Effective Use for Their Cash

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The problem lies in the fact that even with a 10% increase in net profit, ROE only grew by 0.5%. This is due to having too much cash on hand.
  • TSE has provided an opportunity for companies to develop measures to increase their corporate value. However, not many companies can derive concrete ways to effectively use cash.
  • Since many companies are expected to take time to find concrete solution to this problem, an increasing number of companies are expected to go private once they have done so.

ADEA: Not Just Another Licensing Deal

By Hamed Khorsand

  • ADEA announced it has licensed its intellectual property to Austrian service provider Magenta Telekom in what could be of bigger significance than what ADEA’s stock price portrays
  • The license is the first for ADEA with a European service provider. This is also the first major customer win ADEA has announced since becoming a standalone IP company
  • The size of the deal with Magenta is most likely small, but our focus is on what it could mean for ADEA. Magenta is owned by T-Mobile parent Deutsche Telekom.

WK Kellogg Co: Positive Price/Mix and Revenue Growth Management Initiatives! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • During the latest earnings, W.K. Kellogg Co demonstrated its strategic plans for the future and reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023.
  • The CEO, Gary Pilnick, emphasized the company’s commitment to delivering on its promises and its focus on execution and engaging its team.
  • The company achieved net sales at the high end of their guidance range and EBITDA margin above their guidance range indicating effective business planning.

BWMX: 1Q Preview: Moving to the Offensive; Reiterate Buy, $22.50 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, projections and $22.50 price target for Betterware de Mexico with the company announcing 1Q24 (March) results after the close on Thursday.
  • We believe, with momentum returning at the Betterware division, JAFRA remaining on a new product and marketing focus, the United States market becoming a larger emphasis and BWMX continuing to offer a compelling (and secure) dividend yield of 8.5%, BWMX remains well positioned to reward investors on multiple levels, and we reiterate our Buy rating and $22.50 price target.

AKA: Initiating Coverage of a.k.a. Brands with Buy and $14 PT: Upside Ahead

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are initiating coverage of a.k.a. Brands Holding Corp.
  • (“a.k.a. Brands” or the “company”), a leading owner of primarily online apparel-based brands focused on Generation Z and Millennial consumers, with a Buy rating and $14.00 price target, or 10.9X our 2025 EBITDA projection of $20.2 million.
  • The company’s brands include: 1) Princess Polly, focusing on 15 to 25 year-old women; 2) Petal & Pup, which offers feminine styles for 25 to 34 year-old women; 3) Culture Kings, a street wear destination; and 4) mnml, a high-quality street wear designer focused on bottoms.

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Apr 20
0

Most Read: Bank of Communications , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Hanmi Science, Shinko Electric Industries, Inageya Co Ltd, Hollysys Automation Technologies, KKR & Co, Doosan Robotics , HD Hyundai Marine Solution and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes and US$2.7bn Round-Trip Trade
  • Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Update
  • What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?
  • Imminent Block Deals Involving Hanmi Science Shares Due to Inheritance Tax Payments
  • Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity
  • Inageya (8182 JP): Share Exchange Offer from USMH (3222 JP)
  • Hollysys (HOLI US): This Is A Buy
  • Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 June 2024 – Minimal Changes Expected but Intrareview Changes Possible
  • Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: Four Changes Likely
  • Will the Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Follow in Ecopro Materials’ Footsteps After It Goes Public?

SSE50 Index Rebalance Preview: 5 Changes and US$2.7bn Round-Trip Trade

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period nearing completion, 6 stocks are in inclusion zone and 8 are in deletion zone. However, there can be a maximum of 5 changes at a review.
  • We estimate a one-way turnover of 7% at the June rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 9.7bn (US$1.34bn). Index arb balances could increase the impact on the stocks.
  • The inflows into mainland China ETFs have further increased the flow and impact on the potential changes. The potential adds have continued to outperform the potential deletes.

Shinko Electric (6967) – Break/Gap Risk Update

By Travis Lundy

  • When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider. 
  • 12wks ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco’d a buy. Then 5wks ago, reco’d trimming.
  • Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, and gross spreads had come in 5+% on JSR’s approval. Spreads are now 3% wider than their narrowest, but gap risk has widened as Shinko outperforms.

What Is TSMC Telling Us About Semi Supply Chain Stories at Its Investor Conference?

By Andrew Lu

  • TSMC reiterates 2024 sales y/y growth of 20-25% but revises down 2024 global semiconductor y/y sales from over 10% to 10% and global foundry sales growth from 20% to 15-19%.
  • No more Moore’s Law: After 3 years ramp up gap between N5-N3, TSMC confirms 10-11 quarters of ramp up gap between N3 and N2 due to longer production cycle.
  • Driven by stronger digital consumer (33% q/q), HPC (3% q/q), IoT (5% q/q) sales but weaker smartphone IC (-16% q/q), TSMC reports 1Q24 sales decline of only 5% q/q.

Imminent Block Deals Involving Hanmi Science Shares Due to Inheritance Tax Payments

By Sanghyun Park

  • The local market anxiously awaits the family’s ability to pay by early May. Failure could prompt the Tax Service to sell their pledged stocks, including Hanmi Science shares.
  • Preventing Tax Service from selling Hanmi Science shares requires additional collateral, unlikely due to existing pledges. Rumor suggests mother and daughter may sell shares before May, followed by Tax Service.
  • Given negotiation uncertainty with KKR, it’s crucial to prepare for potential failure rather than solely relying on success, necessitating a pragmatic approach.

Shinko Electric (6967 JP): Widening Spread Is an Opportunity

By Arun George

  • Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)‘s pre-conditional tender offer from the JIC alliance is JPY5,920 per share. The gross spread widened from a low of 3.1% on 14 March to 7.0%. 
  • The widening spread can be attributed to China SAMR approval timing, earnings risk, Ibiden Co Ltd (4062 JP)’s material underperformance lowering the break price and a large fund liquidating positions. 
  • The deal break risks remain low with the timing remaining the key risk. The current 7.0% spread is an attractive opportunity to add. 

Inageya (8182 JP): Share Exchange Offer from USMH (3222 JP)

By Arun George

  • Inageya Co Ltd (8182 JP) announced a share exchange offer by United Super Markets (3222 JP) at 1.46 USMH shares per Inageya share.
  • The share exchange aligns with Aeon Co Ltd (8267 JP)’s well-flagged intention of making Inageya a wholly-owned subsidiary of USMH.
  • Aeon’s 50%+ shareholding in Inageya and USMH facilitates the two EGM votes. The deal metrics are broadly fair for both sets of shareholders. 

Hollysys (HOLI US): This Is A Buy

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 8th February 2024, 85% of Hollysys Automation (HOLI US) shareholders present and via proxy, voted for Ascendent Capital’s Offer. After three-plus years, the end was finally in sight.
  • Then crickets. The merger was to complete in the 1Q. On the 15th April, HOLI released an accountant resignation notice. No word on dissenters or regulatory approvals. Shares sold off. 
  • The accountant resignation is a nothing burger. HOLI should lift their game and provide more transparency on the outstanding merger conditions. Still, the spread is attractive. This is a buy. 

Quiddity Leaderboard S&P 500 June 2024 – Minimal Changes Expected but Intrareview Changes Possible

By Travis Lundy

  • The S&P 500 index tracks the 500 largest names listed in the US and it is one of the most highly-tracked indices in the world.
  • The index is reviewed quarterly. The next review will be in June 2024 and the evaluation date for the rankings for the constituent selection process is 6th June 2024.
  • In this insight, we take a look at the Potential ADDs and Potential DELs for the June 2024 index rebal event and the intra-review ADDs/DELs.

Quiddity Leaderboard KOSPI 200 Jun 24: Four Changes Likely

By Travis Lundy

  • KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
  • In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the upcoming semiannual review in June 2024.
  • We expect up to four changes in the KOSPI 200 index during the June 2024 index rebal event (down from 5 expected last month)  based on the latest available data.

Will the Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Follow in Ecopro Materials’ Footsteps After It Goes Public?

By Sanghyun Park

  • The prospect of this IPO mirroring the post-listing rallies seen with Ecopro Materials is what keeps local institutions fixated on this IPO despite valuation issues.
  • The key factors are speculative trading frenzy among local retail investors and subsequent passive inflows through early entry into KOSPI 200/MSCI Standard.
  • Considering two factors is vital. Hyundai Marine Solution’s IPO size is twice Ecopro Materials’, potentially limiting speculative buying. Sector-wide rallies, crucial for Ecopro Materials, haven’t been as prominent in shipbuilding.

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Apr 20
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 19th): Meituan and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 19th): Meituan, Tencent, CK Asset
  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 12th): Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global, South32

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Apr 19th): Meituan, Tencent, CK Asset

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Apr 19th based on HKEx daily reports.
  • In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Meituan (3690 HK), Tencent (700 HK), CK Asset (1113 HK).
  • In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), AIA (1299 HK).

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 12th): Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global, South32

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 12th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.0bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, Computershare, NAB, Wisetech Global, South32.

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Apr 20
0

Daily Brief ESG: More Companies Will Choose to Go Private Because They Can’t Find an Effective Use for Their Cash and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • More Companies Will Choose to Go Private Because They Can’t Find an Effective Use for Their Cash
  • Reno De Medici – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

More Companies Will Choose to Go Private Because They Can’t Find an Effective Use for Their Cash

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The problem lies in the fact that even with a 10% increase in net profit, ROE only grew by 0.5%. This is due to having too much cash on hand.
  • TSE has provided an opportunity for companies to develop measures to increase their corporate value. However, not many companies can derive concrete ways to effectively use cash.
  • Since many companies are expected to take time to find concrete solution to this problem, an increasing number of companies are expected to go private once they have done so.

Reno De Medici – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Reno de Medici’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental and Governance scores. The company has a “Strong” score for the Social pillar. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”. 

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Apr 20
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Japan Weekly | Nikkei Takes a Dive and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Weekly | Nikkei Takes a Dive
  • AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 19/04/2024
  • [Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/1211 HK/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/BEKE US/300750 SZ
  • [Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:PDD US /BABA US /JD US /3690 HK/VIPS/NTES US/BIDU US/SHEIN/AMZN US

Japan Weekly | Nikkei Takes a Dive

By Mark Chadwick

  • Geopolitical concerns and disappointing ASML earnings were the key triggers for sharp pull back in equities this week
  • Next week in Japan, all eyes will be on the Bank of Japan and the continued weakness in the exchange rate. Earnings season just around the corner too
  • Semiconductor names were hit hard this week – Lasertec (-21%), Tokyo Electron (-15%) and Disco (-11%) sharply lower. 

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY – 19/04/2024

By Auctus Advisors

  • Tethys Oil (TETY SS)C; target price of SEK100 per share: Increasing further the size of the prize/Considering Algeria – The South Lahan area on Block 58 is estimated to hold 55-523 mmbl prospective resources (P90-P10 case) with a mean case of 251.8 mmbbl prospective resources across six prospects in the Ara Carbonate.
  • Combined with the previously disclosed prospective resources of the Fahd area in the north-eastern part of Block 58, Tethys Oil’s unrisked recoverable prospective resources on the block are estimated to be 435.9 mmbbl (Pmean).
  • The geological chance of success ranges from 6% to 11% for the six new prospects.

[Blue Lotus Daily]:1810 HK/1211 HK/LI US/XPEV US/NIO US/BEKE US/300750 SZ

By Eric Wen

  • 1810HK/1211HK/LI/XPEV/NIO: The growth rate of new energy vehicles fell back in the 15th week of 2024,BYD and Li delivered stably,AITO slowed down due to L6,XiaomiSU7 impacting TeslaM3 and BYDHan（/）
  • BEKE US: Residential new home sales value fell by 30% YoY in 1Q24, but slightly better than consensus(+)
  • 300750 SZ: CATL’s first quarter results show strong pricing power amid fierce price war（/）

[Blue Lotus Daily – TMT Update]:PDD US /BABA US /JD US /3690 HK/VIPS/NTES US/BIDU US/SHEIN/AMZN US

By Ying Pan

  • PDD/BABA/JD/3690.HK/VIPS: NBS publishes data social retail data for March 2024 (+/////-)
  • NTES US: NetEase’s <Naraka Mobile>, has completed its pre-launch testing phase with overall positive feedback, and pre-registration reached 25 million. (+)
  • BABA US/3690 HK : Eleme launches semi-managed mode for retail merchants, adding pressure to Meituan instashopping

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Apr 20
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

Pullback Underway; Further Downside Limited?; Buys in Defensives and Commodity-Related Sectors

By Joe Jasper

  • A pullback in global equities is underway following steep uptrend violations on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and EURO STOXX 50. Both are 4-5% off their highs; further downside may be limited.
  • Several 5%-10% pullbacks are to be expected in any given year, particularly after the historic 5-month rallies, so we view this as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market.
  • ACWI-US is currently testing important support at $105; if this area were to break, next major supports are $102 and $99; this is where we would be buying.

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Apr 20
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Sands China, Yuexiu Property

Morning Views Asia: China Jinmao Holdings, JSW Steel Ltd, Sands China, Yuexiu Property

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Apr 20
0

Daily Brief ECM: Will the Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Follow in Ecopro Materials’ Footsteps After It Goes Public? and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Will the Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Follow in Ecopro Materials’ Footsteps After It Goes Public?

Will the Hyundai Marine Solution IPO Follow in Ecopro Materials’ Footsteps After It Goes Public?

By Sanghyun Park

  • The prospect of this IPO mirroring the post-listing rallies seen with Ecopro Materials is what keeps local institutions fixated on this IPO despite valuation issues.
  • The key factors are speculative trading frenzy among local retail investors and subsequent passive inflows through early entry into KOSPI 200/MSCI Standard.
  • Considering two factors is vital. Hyundai Marine Solution’s IPO size is twice Ecopro Materials’, potentially limiting speculative buying. Sector-wide rallies, crucial for Ecopro Materials, haven’t been as prominent in shipbuilding.

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