Category

Daily Briefs

Apr 22
0

Daily Brief Financials: Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, NIFTY Index, Bell Financial and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Significant Developments Emerged Today for Korea’s Value-Up
  • EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24
  • Bell Financial Group Ltd – Strong start to FY24 with Q1 PBT +60%

Significant Developments Emerged Today for Korea’s Value-Up

By Sanghyun Park

  • Deputy PM Choi Sang-mok commits to aggressively pursue separate taxation of dividend income, marking a shift towards concrete action for value-up policies.
  • Ever since the introduction of the Value-up policy earlier this year, the primary incentive championed by the local capital market has been the separate taxation of dividend income.
  • Hence, the government’s official commitment to this marks a crucial step in reshaping the Value-up momentum.

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24

By Sankalp Singh

  • Unprecedented levels of FII option-buying & increasing geo-political risk causing IVs to re-price higher.
  • Skew/ Smile characteristics of the Vol Surface reflect increased risk aversion but not it panic mode – yet.
  • BankNifty IVs exhibiting unusual “kink-in-the-curve”. Enter barbell structures to position for reversion in curve shape.

Bell Financial Group Ltd – Strong start to FY24 with Q1 PBT +60%

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Bell Financial Group Ltd (ASX:BFG) is a diversified provider of financial products and software solutions within, and increasingly outside, its traditional full-service stockbroking business.
  • A Q1 FY24 trading update provided at the group’s AGM on 19 April points to revenue growth of 17% and PBT growth of 60% to $9.3m, with all divisions said to be profitable.
  • This compares to a RaaS H1 FY24 PBT growth estimate of 69%, placing the group on track to achieve our H1 estimates.

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Apr 22
0

Daily Brief Industrials: S.F. Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border

By Daniel Hellberg

  • ASPs remain under pressure as STO, J&T gain volume share in ground segment
  • March showed a surprising slowdown in pace of international volume growth
  • We believe Q423 and Q124 company-level profitability will mostly disappoint

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Apr 22
0

Daily Brief Consumer: JD.com , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • JD.com (JD US / 9618 HK):  Announced 2.8% Share Buyback In 1Q24 + My 1Q24 Preview
  • Stricter Voting Criteria for Domestic Asset Managers May Aim to Enhance Value Through Engagement

JD.com (JD US / 9618 HK):  Announced 2.8% Share Buyback In 1Q24 + My 1Q24 Preview

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • JD.com (9618 HK) announced this week that it has repurchased 2.8% of the outstanding shares of the company in the first quarter of 2024. 
  • Improved shareholder returns is a key thesis for the stock, given that there is little market expectation on such given limited track record.
  • A positive catalyst on full year performance could be the government’s announced stimulus policy for home appliance in April this year (trading old for new).

Stricter Voting Criteria for Domestic Asset Managers May Aim to Enhance Value Through Engagement

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Stricter voting standards for domestic investment managers seem aimed at increasing value through engagement for companies that show little improvement in efforts to improve stock price and return on capital.
  • Stricter voting standards for policy shareholding ratios of domestic investment management companies are expected to push companies to consider reducing cross-shareholdings. Reference to deemed shareholdings is also commendable.
  • Since engagement of overseas investors has been effective in increasing value of companies, engagement by Japanese investment managers more seriously than before will contribute to enhancing the value of companies.

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Apr 22
0

Most Read: Kokusai Electric , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Shinko Electric Industries, Pasona Group, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, JD.com , NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Kokusai Elec (6525) – The Much-Anticipated Lockup Expiry
  • TSMC. How To Turn Chicken Salad Into Chicken Sh*t
  • Significant Developments Emerged Today for Korea’s Value-Up
  • Merger Arb Mondays (22 Apr) – Shinko, Inageya, C&F Logistics, Hollysys, Azure, Qantm IP, Tietto
  • Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, Hang Lung Properties, Hollysys, Azure Minerals
  • TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color
  • Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Falls over 2%
  • JD.com (JD US / 9618 HK):  Announced 2.8% Share Buyback In 1Q24 + My 1Q24 Preview
  • EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24
  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Breaks Down From Extreme, UMC Discount Near Historical Low

Kokusai Elec (6525) – The Much-Anticipated Lockup Expiry

By Travis Lundy

  • Last autumn, Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was IPOed by KKR. The lockup expires next week, on 21 April 2024 (a Sunday). That frees up about 70% of the stock.
  • KKR’s own stake is worth about US$2.8bn. It is not clear that Applied Materials, Qatar, or the Koch Strategic Platforms stakes would be for sale (now, or near-term).
  • There is an interesting schedule of events between here and a likely offering date. It pays to pay attention to the details. 

TSMC. How To Turn Chicken Salad Into Chicken Sh*t

By William Keating

  • Q124 revenues of $18.87 billion, marginally above the high end of the guided range, up 12.9% YoY and down 3.8% QoQ. Guided Q224 +6% QoQ.  Maintained full year 2024 outlook
  • Unnecessary, minor downward revisions for semi & foundry growth, combined with confusion about the reason triggered an allergic reaction on the markets. TSMC down ~8% since.
  • SMCI plunged 23% by Friday close, ARM down 16.9%, NVIDIA down 10%, AMD & Micron down ~5% etc. Nice one, TSMC!

Significant Developments Emerged Today for Korea’s Value-Up

By Sanghyun Park

  • Deputy PM Choi Sang-mok commits to aggressively pursue separate taxation of dividend income, marking a shift towards concrete action for value-up policies.
  • Ever since the introduction of the Value-up policy earlier this year, the primary incentive championed by the local capital market has been the separate taxation of dividend income.
  • Hence, the government’s official commitment to this marks a crucial step in reshaping the Value-up momentum.

Merger Arb Mondays (22 Apr) – Shinko, Inageya, C&F Logistics, Hollysys, Azure, Qantm IP, Tietto

By Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Pasona/Benefit One, Hang Lung Properties, Hollysys, Azure Minerals

By David Blennerhassett

TSMC Just Provided Substantial Visibility into Their Long-Term Growth Estimate; ASML Adds Color

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC and ASML reported 1Q24 results last week; both stocks have fallen post results, impacted by global concerns despite a strong outlook for these two leaders into 2025E.
  • TSMC guided for strong growth not just in 2024E, but if one digs into management’s comments, they actually provided strong visibility into their 2028E internal revenue expectations.
  • For ASML, its EUV product business is the key indicator to watch. We believe TSMC shares will continue to re-rate even through a period of global economic softness.

Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Falls over 2%

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Nasdaq Composite extended its decline for a sixth consecutive session, marking its longest losing streak in over a year, as Nvidia’s plunge exacerbated market concerns
  • Paramount Global’s shares surged over 10% after reports of discussions between Sony Pictures Entertainment, Apollo Global Management, and Paramount for a joint buyout bid.
  • Sekisui House completed a $4.9 billion acquisition of U.S.-based MDC Holdings, expanding its U.S. homebuilding operations to 16 states

JD.com (JD US / 9618 HK):  Announced 2.8% Share Buyback In 1Q24 + My 1Q24 Preview

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • JD.com (9618 HK) announced this week that it has repurchased 2.8% of the outstanding shares of the company in the first quarter of 2024. 
  • Improved shareholder returns is a key thesis for the stock, given that there is little market expectation on such given limited track record.
  • A positive catalyst on full year performance could be the government’s announced stimulus policy for home appliance in April this year (trading old for new).

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 15-Apr-24 to 19-Apr-24

By Sankalp Singh

  • Unprecedented levels of FII option-buying & increasing geo-political risk causing IVs to re-price higher.
  • Skew/ Smile characteristics of the Vol Surface reflect increased risk aversion but not it panic mode – yet.
  • BankNifty IVs exhibiting unusual “kink-in-the-curve”. Enter barbell structures to position for reversion in curve shape.

Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Breaks Down From Extreme, UMC Discount Near Historical Low

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +9.2% Premium, Major Breakdown From Previous Historically Extreme High
  • UMC: -1.9% Discount, Is Near Low End of Historical Range
  • ASE: +10.4%; ADR Short Interest Jumps to Very High Level vs. History

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Apr 22
0

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Meituan, Zhaojin Mining
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 19th): Fosun Pharma, China Southern Air, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium, Joinn Lab
  • Northbound Flows (Apr 19th): Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 19th): Wt, Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Tatung, Lotes, TSMC, Mediatek, Umc
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 19th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, Kia
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 19th): China Mobile, Bank Of China, Tencent, Petrochina, HSBC
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 19th): TSMC, Wiwynn, Tatung, Umc, Teco Elec & Mach, Quanta Computer

HK Short Interest Weekly: Tencent, Meituan, Zhaojin Mining

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the latest HK SFC report for aggregate short position as of Apr 12th.
  • Top short increases and decreases were tabulated for one week and four week period. 
  • We highlight short changes in Tencent (700 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), Zhaojin Mining (1818 HK).

A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 19th): Fosun Pharma, China Southern Air, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium, Joinn Lab

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 132.0% as of Apr 19th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by 2.7ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, financials, materials and offset by communication services, energy.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Fosun Pharma, China Southern Air, CICC, Ganfeng Lithium, Joinn Lab.

Northbound Flows (Apr 19th): Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 19th.
  • We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$876.3 million, led by information technology, industrials, materials, and offset by financials, health care, real estate.
  • We highlight flows for Zijin Mining, China Tourism, Foxconn Industrial Internet, China Citic Bank, Zhongji Innolight.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 19th): Wt, Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Tatung, Lotes, TSMC, Mediatek, Umc

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 19th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,728.3bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD18,944mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign instutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in Wt, Hon Hai, Wiwynn, Tatung, Lotes, TSMC, Mediatek, Umc, Alchip Tech, Wistron.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 19th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, Kia

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX Stocks as of Apr 19th which has an aggregated holding worth USD508.9bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD85mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, Kia.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 19th): China Mobile, Bank Of China, Tencent, Petrochina, HSBC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 19th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for China Mobile, Bank Of China, Tencent, Petrochina, ICBC,  HSBC.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 19th): TSMC, Wiwynn, Tatung, Umc, Teco Elec & Mach, Quanta Computer

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 19th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD79.3bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in TSMC, Wiwynn, Tatung, Umc, Teco Elec & Mach, Quanta Computer, Wt, Bora Pharma.

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Apr 22
0

Daily Brief ESG: Stricter Voting Criteria for Domestic Asset Managers May Aim to Enhance Value Through Engagement and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • Stricter Voting Criteria for Domestic Asset Managers May Aim to Enhance Value Through Engagement

Stricter Voting Criteria for Domestic Asset Managers May Aim to Enhance Value Through Engagement

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Stricter voting standards for domestic investment managers seem aimed at increasing value through engagement for companies that show little improvement in efforts to improve stock price and return on capital.
  • Stricter voting standards for policy shareholding ratios of domestic investment management companies are expected to push companies to consider reducing cross-shareholdings. Reference to deemed shareholdings is also commendable.
  • Since engagement of overseas investors has been effective in increasing value of companies, engagement by Japanese investment managers more seriously than before will contribute to enhancing the value of companies.

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Apr 22
0

Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Falls over 2% and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Falls over 2%

Ohayo Japan | Nasdaq Falls over 2%

By Mark Chadwick

  • The Nasdaq Composite extended its decline for a sixth consecutive session, marking its longest losing streak in over a year, as Nvidia’s plunge exacerbated market concerns
  • Paramount Global’s shares surged over 10% after reports of discussions between Sony Pictures Entertainment, Apollo Global Management, and Paramount for a joint buyout bid.
  • Sekisui House completed a $4.9 billion acquisition of U.S.-based MDC Holdings, expanding its U.S. homebuilding operations to 16 states

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Apr 22
0

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Silver Measured Move to 35.50 and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Silver Measured Move to 35.50

Silver Measured Move to 35.50

By Douglas Busch

  • S&P 500 looks vulnerable. Maintain large cash positions for forseeable future.
  • US Dollar bull flagging and may put pressure on equities in near term.
  • Nikkei at inflection point. Bulls must stand up here to defend.

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Apr 22
0

Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT, Vedanta Resources

Morning Views Asia: Pertamina Geothermal Energy PT, Vedanta Resources

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.

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Apr 22
0

Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (22nd Apr 2024) – Kokusai and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (22nd Apr 2024) – Kokusai, J&T, Voda IDEA, ChaPanda, Cloudchain, Johor Plant, Aadhar
  • Xunfei Healthcare Technology Pre-IPO – Appears to Be in the Early Stages of Commercialization

ECM Weekly (22nd Apr 2024) – Kokusai, J&T, Voda IDEA, ChaPanda, Cloudchain, Johor Plant, Aadhar

By Sumeet Singh

Xunfei Healthcare Technology Pre-IPO – Appears to Be in the Early Stages of Commercialization

By Clarence Chu

  • Xunfei Healthcare Technology (XHT HK) is looking to raise around US$200m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
  • Xunfei Healthcare Technology (Xunfei), a iFlytek (Shenzhen-listed) spin-off, primarily provides solutions covering the full healthcare service cycle, with products and services mainly catered towards major stakeholders in the healthcare industry.
  • In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.

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