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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities


Shifting Exposure From Growth to Value; Downgrading Technology; Upgrades: Manufacturing & Utilities

By Joe Jasper

  • While the market remains in consolidation/pullback mode and we are not out of the woods, it is possible that further downside is limited from here on the S&P 500
  • Since late-February, we’ve discussed important gap support from 2/22/24 at 4983-5050 on the SPX, with bulls in control if above 4983. Selling last week has simply filled this gap
  • 4920-4950 is now support near last week’s lows. Downgrade: Technology (XLK) to market weight. Upgrades: Manufacturing/Industrials (XLI) to overweight and Utilities (XLU) to market weight; individual stock buys highlighted.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Are Global Airlines Cooking Their Books? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Are Global Airlines Cooking Their Books?
  • Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Climb
  • Oncology Will Continue to Dominate
  • Strong ASEAN Banks Poised Well to Face Uncertain Rate Outlook


Are Global Airlines Cooking Their Books?

By Mark Jolley

  • Airlines are among biggest accounting manipulators worldwide, AI tool shows
  • Airlines are more assertively managing their accounting as they struggle to reinvigorate profits hurt by Covid-19 pandemic
  • Chinese, Asian carriers have highest risk scores for accounting manipulation

Ohayo Japan | US Stocks Climb

By Mark Chadwick

  • US stocks rallied on Tuesday with the Nasdaq Composite leading, up 1.6% on upbeat earnings. 
  • Speculation swirls on timing of next BOJ rate hike as policymakers gather for two-day meeting starting Thursday.
  • Mitsui joins a liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in the UAE, investing in a $7 billion venture to produce 10 million tons annually, about 15% of Japan’s demand.

Oncology Will Continue to Dominate

By Avien Pillay

  • In 2022, there were 20 million new cancer cases, and almost half of the cases were recorded in Asia.
  • Global oncology spend is forecast to grow at 11.99% between 2023 and 2027, and this is expected to be almost three times faster than the growth of total pharma spend.
  • Emerging companies continue to make big strides in oncology drug development and made up 71% of the new drug pipeline in 2022.

Strong ASEAN Banks Poised Well to Face Uncertain Rate Outlook

By Raghav Chandra Mathur

  • The strong showing of economic data from the US for the first three months of 2024 has spurred bets that the Federal Reserve’s is going to delay cutting rates towards the latter half of this year.
  • The narrative surrounding ‘imminent’ rate cuts that dominated market perception near the end of last year has been thwarted by the Fed’s chair Jerome Powell suggesting that rates are likely to remain elevated, without the market completely discounting the possibility of further rate hikes.
  • The immediate fallout from the higher-than-expected March inflation figures led to a systematic drop in Asian currencies, especially for some ASEAN based currencies, such as the Malaysian Ringgit, that have already been embattled by weakening currency against the dollar since the start of this year.

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Daily Brief ECM: Horizon Robotics Pre-IPO – The Positives – Rapid Revenue Growth and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Horizon Robotics Pre-IPO – The Positives – Rapid Revenue Growth
  • Horizon Robotics Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Large Part of the Growth Stems from Its JV
  • ZEEKR IPO Valuation Update: Likely To Price IPO Below Last Round Valuation of ~$13B


Horizon Robotics Pre-IPO – The Positives – Rapid Revenue Growth

By Sumeet Singh

  • Horizon Robotics is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are GS, MS and China Securities.
  • Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Horizon Robotics Pre-IPO – The Negatives – Large Part of the Growth Stems from Its JV

By Sumeet Singh

  • Horizon Robotics is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are GS, MS and China Securities.
  • Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
  • In this note, we talk about the not-so-positive aspects of the deal.

ZEEKR IPO Valuation Update: Likely To Price IPO Below Last Round Valuation of ~$13B

By Andrei Zakharov

  • ZEEKR, a Chinese EV maker, plans to raise up to $500M in US IPO. The company put its offering on hold in 2023 due to a mismatch in valuation expectations.
  • A fast-growing company will offer ADSs, and the size of the company’s potential IPO is down from their initial target of up to $1B, a negative sign for ZEEKR shares.
  • EV stocks have significantly underperformed the broader market this year amid price wars, slow growth ahead and intense competition, especially in China.  

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Reliance Industries and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Reliance Industries


Morning Views Asia: Reliance Industries

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Find Out When HMM’s Upcoming Early Redemption Requests Might Drop and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Find Out When HMM’s Upcoming Early Redemption Requests Might Drop
  • Tiantan (600161CH) To Acquire Weiguang (002880CH)- New King Rises in China’s Blood Products Industry


Find Out When HMM’s Upcoming Early Redemption Requests Might Drop

By Sanghyun Park

  • Despite this pattern persisting for years, there has still been a significant price impact each time it surfaces. Therefore, we should pay attention to the upcoming CB conversion schedule.
  • A consistent observation is that the price impact is most significant at the announcement of early redemption requests.
  • The anticipated announcement dates for the forthcoming early redemption requests are: around May 20th (195th conversion), around September 20th (196th conversion), and around March 20th of next year (197th conversion).

Tiantan (600161CH) To Acquire Weiguang (002880CH)- New King Rises in China’s Blood Products Industry

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Guangming District State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau reached a cooperation agreement with China National Biotec to establish a joint venture, which will become the new controlling shareholder of Weiguang.
  • Since Tiantan is already Sinopharm’s subsidiary, there will be horizontal competition issue in the field of blood product business between Tiantan and Weiguang, mainly due to significant business overlap.
  • Some spin-offs and integrations are expected between Tiantan and Weiguang. As the reform of SOE enters a new stage, the two companies could end up very different.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Elite Commercial REIT: Essential Assets at an Attractive Yield and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Elite Commercial REIT: Essential Assets at an Attractive Yield
  • Pasona (2168) – Tuesday, Jan 23, 2024
  • Anta/Li Ning/Xtep:  China Sportswear 1Q24 Update
  • Nidec (6594) | More EV Losses
  • Korea Small Cap Gem #28: Chokwang Leather – A Cheaper Way to Invest in Berkshire Hathaway
  • Lasertec (6920 JP): Further to Fall
  • Tesla’s Won’t Fix It’s Worst Problems With Elon Musk In Charge
  • Shimano (7309) | Stuck in a Low Gear
  • Why Tesla Shows Post Results Rebound of over 10%?
  • Why Lululemon Isn’t Under Armour


Elite Commercial REIT: Essential Assets at an Attractive Yield

By Sumeet Singh

  • In Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Elite Commercial REIT: Essential Assets at an Attractive Yield we conducted a fireside chat with Elite Commercial REIT.
  • Elite Commercial REIT is a Singapore real estate investment trust established with the investment strategy of principally investing, directly or indirectly, in commercial real-estate related assets in the United Kingdom.
  • The company has recently expanded its strategy to look at other commercial assets in the UK, beyond its existing portfolio of assets rented by the UK government.

This Insight is part of the Smartkarma Corporate Webinar series, supported by SGX through the Investor Education Fund.


Pasona (2168) – Tuesday, Jan 23, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Pasona (2168.JP) is a long investment opportunity due to its ownership of a majority stake in Benefit One (2412.JP), which is the subject of a bidding war between M3 (2413.JP) and Dai-Ichi Life (8750.JP).
  • Potential bids for Benefit One could result in a significant cash windfall for Pasona, estimated at around 50% more than its current enterprise value, as well as an operating business valued at an additional 50% of its current EV.
  • With the founder of Pasona being 71 years old, the bidding war could lead to a management buy-out or a substantial return of capital program for the company.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Anta/Li Ning/Xtep:  China Sportswear 1Q24 Update

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Anta Sports Products (2020 HK), Li Ning (2331 HK), and Xtep International (1368 HK) have announced 1Q24 operational updates, with additional color given in post conference calls. 
  • Anta: Retail sales started to accelerate in mid-March, and March were better than January and February. 
  • Li Ning:  offline retail sales down low-single-digit in 1Q24, driven by wholesale down mid-single-digit, while retail grew mid-single-digit.  E-commerce grew 20-30% yoy.  

Nidec (6594) | More EV Losses

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nidec reported a solid set of quarterly numbers, except for another huge structural loss in its EV business. 
  • Nidec saw sales growth and operating profitability improvements in all other segments
  • We continue to think that Nidec is attractively priced at under 20x EV/ EBIT given structural growth drivers

Korea Small Cap Gem #28: Chokwang Leather – A Cheaper Way to Invest in Berkshire Hathaway

By Douglas Kim

  • At the end of 2023, Chokwang Leather owned 190.3 billion won worth of Berkshire Hathaway shares, which represents 56% of Chokwang Leather’s market cap. 
  • Chokwang Leather also has 3.1 million treasury shares (46.6% of outstanding shares). It has the highest levels of treasury shares as a percentage of outstanding shares among Korean stocks.
  • Chokwang Leather is likely to be one of the key companies to be targeted to improve its corporate governance as part of the Corporate Value Up program. 

Lasertec (6920 JP): Further to Fall

By Scott Foster

  • Lasertec has dropped more than 20% in the past week and a half, but is still selling at more than 60x EPS guidance for FY Jun-24.
  • Weak orders at ASML, disappointing guidance from TSMC and doubts about Intel’s equipment purchases cast doubt on Lasertec’s growth potential.
  • Between December 2021 and June 2022, Lasertec’s share price dropped by more than 50%. Wait for Q3 results before reaching for a falling knife. 

Tesla’s Won’t Fix It’s Worst Problems With Elon Musk In Charge

By Vicki Bryan

  • Plunging sales & growing losses, severe price cuts & layoffs, failed FSD, M2 dropped for Robotaxi, and more, confirm that Elon Musk won’t fix Tesla’s most serious problems—which he created.
  • He still demands his “unfathomable” pay package be restored, and his feckless, captured Tesla Board is doing exactly what he wants.
  • But what Tesla’s Board should do, what it should have done years ago, is fire Elon Musk, the single greatest risk to Tesla’s future.

Shimano (7309) | Stuck in a Low Gear

By Mark Chadwick

  • Shimano continues to reel from a slowdown in bike and fishing tackle sales post Covid
  • 1Q operating profit beat the analyst consensus, but the upward revision to full year is minor and falls short of street estimates
  • The stock has priced in an improving outlook. However, valuations are now looking full compared to historical levels. 

Why Tesla Shows Post Results Rebound of over 10%?

By Andrew Lu

  • Again, Tesla reports a 1Q24 sales with 4% miss but post market share price up more than 10% for 6 reasons. 1. Gross margin was stable on 15% sales drop;
  • 2. ASP was stable; 3. Affordable EV on track for 2025; 4. Factory expansion to slow; 5. Optimus to sell end of 2025; 6. 2024 EV shipment higher than 2023.
  • Near term risks to remain: 1. When will margin trough? 2. Why bother to buy EV if 2nd hand market collapsing? 3. Will Robotaxi/FSD bring in meaningful sales/profits soon?

Why Lululemon Isn’t Under Armour

By Investment Talk

  • On March 21st, Lululemon reported FY23 results. All things considered, the results were good. Guidance, however, caused some upset. Lululemon shares are down ~29% this year; after being down just 6% before the report, and is currently the 8th worst-performing stock in the S&P 500.
  • Lululemon’s implied 11.5% revenue growth for 2024 is a notable deceleration from years prior; having averaged an annual revenue growth rate of 24.4% over the last 5 years.
  • This year’s revenue guidance is closer to, but still behind, the 5 years before that; where Lululemon averaged 15.7% annual revenue growth.

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Daily Brief Macro: Back Testing the End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods Monthly Data in Korea and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Back Testing the End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods Monthly Data in Korea
  • Asian Geopolitics: Despite Global Turbulence, Can Asia Enjoy Relative Calm?
  • Great Game: Despite New Aid, Ukraine will lose within 12 months. Plan Accordingly!
  • China Economics: Headwinds Remain Despite Rosy GDP Figures
  • Policy Tightness is Gradations of Weak
  • Bollinger Bonds
  • Singapore CPI Inflation 2.7% y-o-y (consensus 3.0%) in Mar-24
  • Positioning Watch – 0 Fed cuts is almost the most favored outcome in market pricing now


Back Testing the End of Mandatory Lock-Up Periods Monthly Data in Korea

By Douglas Kim

  • In this analysis, we provide a back testing analysis of the end of mandatory lock-up periods monthly data in Korea in the past six months.
  • All in all, this end of mandatory lock-up period monthly data continues to provide some alpha generating results.
  • In the past six months, they have tended to work better in periods when KOSPI declines rather than in periods when KOSPI rises. 

Asian Geopolitics: Despite Global Turbulence, Can Asia Enjoy Relative Calm?

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • Despite trade and other frictions between Washington and Beijing, the two sides have set up mechanisms for regular high-level exchanges and other guard rails which reduce risks. 
  • However, as more big powers turn hawkish on defence and trade, other Asian exporters may end up being collateral damage from anti-China protectionism. 
  • Closer to home, the ongoing Myanmar conflict is reaching an imminent turning point as the risk of China getting involved increases and the fighting becomes more intense.

Great Game: Despite New Aid, Ukraine will lose within 12 months. Plan Accordingly!

By Mikkel Rosenvold

  • With all eyes on the Middle East for the past weeks and months, we haven’t focused as much on the ongoing war in Ukraine.
  • In the big picture, not much has changes on the frontline despite continued heavy losses and a Russian election.
  • But now I think it’s time for investors to re-adjust their assessment of the war and consider contingencies for the path ahead.

China Economics: Headwinds Remain Despite Rosy GDP Figures

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • China’s first quarter growth of 5.3% comes amidst a slew of other positive data releases, including an improvement in fixed asset investments and a turnaround in net exports. 
  • But a closer examination suggests that momentum remains weak; the recovery was boosted by Lunar New Year spending, which showed signs of fading by March. 
  • Overcapacity and trade tensions remain major headwinds for any export-led recovery; even as property sector misery continues to dampen purchaser sentiment.  

Policy Tightness is Gradations of Weak

By Phil Rush

  • The PMIs mostly revealed surprise resilience in April, albeit with the US disappointing. Divergent surprises may reflect excessive spread changes in policy expectations.
  • Residual seasonality may exaggerate current strength and unwind in the summer, but stability in unemployment trends still suggests global monetary policy is not that tight.
  • Persistent excess demand requires tight conditions to be sustained. The BoE MPC seems desperate to cut, but resilience should delay it, including relative to Fed pricing.

Bollinger Bonds

By Mark Tinker

  • In our April monthly, we highlighted the combination of fading impulse for momentum stocks (principally tech) and the need for tax related selling in the trading/retail space coming against a background of a correction in the short term bull phase within the longer term bond bear market.
  • Since the beginning of March, US 10 year yields have gone from 4% to around 4.6%, unwinding the Fed Pivot language that emerged to ‘explain’ the earlier rally.

  • In our view that was an unlikely ex-post narrative, as is the one emerging now that the Fed will not cut at all.


Singapore CPI Inflation 2.7% y-o-y (consensus 3.0%) in Mar-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • Singapore’s CPI inflation in March 2024 dropped to 2.7% year-on-year, which was lower than the market consensus of 3.0%, showing a significant moderation of price pressures.
  • The inflation rate is 1.34 percentage points below the one-year average.
  • This data highlights a persistent disinflationary trend in Singapore.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Positioning Watch – 0 Fed cuts is almost the most favored outcome in market pricing now

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch, where we as usual will dive into positioning and sentiment data to provide you with the latest overview of crowded trades and where the markets are leaning.
  • This week we dig into how the rise of volatility (and volatility of volatility) has affected market positioning, if the recent weakness in equities has shaken around positioning (hint: it has) and the recent developments in rates pricing, where the outcome space for the DEC2024 SOFR contract has turned significantly more uniform in hawks’ favor.
  • The VIX recently woke up after a long period of being range-bound between 12.5 and 15, surging on the back of weakness in equities as tax payments have been due in April combined with a slightly hotter than expected CPI report and hawkish remarks from Powell.

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Daily Brief Australia: Carly Holdings and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Carly Holdings (ASX:CL8) RaaS Interview Transcript 23 April 2024


Carly Holdings (ASX:CL8) RaaS Interview Transcript 23 April 2024

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has interviewed vehicle subscription business Carly Holdings (ASX:CL8) following its Q3 result yesterday in which it reported a 53% increase in cash receipts to $1.4m, with subscription revenue increasing 58% to $0.89m, against the March 2023 quarter.
  • Key points from our interview: • Carly’s utilisation remain remains over 80%; • The company is anticipating $1.5m in vehicles to be delivered in the current quarter • Operating costs are expected to be maintained with only marketing likely to increase and only then in line with revenue.
  • Net cash is expected to improve; • Our valuation is $0.079/share against a reference price of $0.018/share.

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Daily Brief South Korea: Krafton , Samsung Life Insurance, HYBE , Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • Krafton Placement – Stock Has Been Doing Well, Momentum Remains Strong
  • Krafton: Block Deal Sale of About 270 Billion Won
  • Mr. Choi Goes to Washington
  • A Nasty Power Struggle Between ADOR CEO and HYBE
  • EQD | KOSPI 200 WEEKLY Bounce: Rally or Not?


Krafton Placement – Stock Has Been Doing Well, Momentum Remains Strong

By Sumeet Singh

  • SK Square is looking to raise around US$198m via selling 2.1% of Krafton (259960 KS).
  • The stock has been doing well over the past few months and its earnings and price momentum remain strong.
  • In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.

Krafton: Block Deal Sale of About 270 Billion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 22 April, it was reported that SK Square plans to sell 2.2% stake in Krafton in a block deal sale worth about 270 billion won. 
  • The estimated block deal sales price range is from 243,000 won to 251,000 won, representing a 3.1% to 6.2% discount to the closing price of 259,000 won on 22 April.
  • We would take the deal. The company’s valuations remain attractive and it has been successful in expanding its sales and profits. 

Mr. Choi Goes to Washington

By Douglas Kim

  • The Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang Mok reaffirmed the Corporate Value Up program, pushing up the major value driven/low PBR stocks in Korea today.
  • Deputy Prime Minister Choi emphasized that as part of Corporate Value Up program, corporate tax benefits to companies that have made efforts to strengthen shareholder return policy will be provided.
  • The Korean government also plans to revise the law to separate taxation on the dividend income of shareholders of companies that expand dividends.

A Nasty Power Struggle Between ADOR CEO and HYBE

By Douglas Kim

  • A nasty power struggle between ADOR CEO Min Hee-Jin and HYBE has erupted which is likely to continue to negatively impact HYBE’s share price in the next several months.
  • ADOR CEO Min Hee-Jin owns an 18% stake in ADOR which was founded in 2021. HYBE owns the controlling 80% stake in ADOR.
  • Given the nasty fight between ADOR and HYBE, it is likely that the two companies (including ADOR’s CEO Min Hee-Jin) are likely to part their ways.

EQD | KOSPI 200 WEEKLY Bounce: Rally or Not?

By Nico Rosti

  • The KOSPI 200 INDEX has closed down for 3 consecutive weeks (CC=-3), it is WEEKLY oversold.
  • If the index rallies this week, it could reach >362 (Q2 resistance) and that could be enough to end the bounce.
  • Our hypothesis is that the index will pull back again, after the bounce, next week (if this week ends with a positive WEEKLY close).

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Daily Brief Singapore: Jardine Cycle & Carriage, CapitaLand Investment /Sing, Seatrium , Silverlake Axis , Sabana Industrial REIT and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • Jardine Cycle & Carriage Is A Short
  • CapitaLand Investment (CLI): A Leading Global RE Investment Manager with Asia Presence, BUY
  • Plato Capital chairman Lim Kian Onn boosts his stake
  • 10 Stocks that Bucked the Past 3 weeks of Marginal STI Declines
  • REIT Watch – Earnings season kicks off as 27 S-REITs confirm schedule


Jardine Cycle & Carriage Is A Short

By David Blennerhassett


CapitaLand Investment (CLI): A Leading Global RE Investment Manager with Asia Presence, BUY

By Jacob Cheng

  • CapitaLand is a real estate investment manager with funds under management of c.S$100b and core markets being Singapore, China and India
  • They reported solid FY2023 results earlier this year.  Singapore and India are showing strong market outlook while China struggles.
  • Valuation is attractive with >50% upside and we view there are multiple catalysts ahead

Plato Capital chairman Lim Kian Onn boosts his stake

By Geoff Howie

  • Plato Capital chairman Lim Kian Onn boosts his stake Digital Core Reit Management bought back 210,000 units of Digital Core Reit.
  • On Apr 12, Plato Capital chairman and non-executive non-independent director Lim Kian Onn acquired 283,000 shares at an average price of S$2.21 per share.

10 Stocks that Bucked the Past 3 weeks of Marginal STI Declines

By Geoff Howie

  • Since the end of 1Q24, Jardine C&C has gained 10%.
  • Jardine C&C also maintains a Refinitiv Consensus Estimates Target Price of S$27.08, an ROE of 16% and P/E of 6x.
  • Like Jardine C&C, the past three weeks has seen Silverlake Axis partially reverse share price declines in 1Q24.

REIT Watch – Earnings season kicks off as 27 S-REITs confirm schedule

By Geoff Howie

  • Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT 17-Apr CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust 19-Apr 19-Apr Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT reported a 0.8 per cent year-on-year decline in net property income (NPI) in the first quarter ended Mar 31, 2024 to US$21 million, from US$21.2 million in Q1 2023.

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