Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Financials: Macquarie Korea Infra Fund, Tokio Marine Holdings, NIFTY Index, Block , J Trust Co Ltd, Longfor Properties, S&U PLC, Aviva and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • Macquarie Korea Infrastructure Fund: Rights Offering of About 500 Billion Won
  • Tokio Marine Holdings – Net Profit +54% YoY, Non Life Premiums & Investment Income Are Drivers
  • EQD / NSE Vol Update / Controlled Detonation in Vols – Initial Jump Followed by Calmer Levels
  • Block Inc.: Focus on Banking Products and Direct Deposit Services & Other Major Drivers
  • J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update
  • Longfor Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • S&U – Anticipating regulatory clarity in H2
  • Aviva Plc – Company Update – July 17, 2024


Macquarie Korea Infrastructure Fund: Rights Offering of About 500 Billion Won

By Douglas Kim

  • Macquarie Korea Infra Fund (088980 KS) announced that it is proceeding with a rights offering capital increase of 500 billion won, which represents about 9.4% of its current market cap. 
  • MKIF plans to use higher liquidity increase in the following main areas: Seoul East Underground Expressway – 215 billion won Acquisition of Hanam Data Center – 423 billion won
  • In the next 6-12 months, we believe MKIF has a solid chance of outperforming KOSPI (on combined capital gains/dividends basis). 

Tokio Marine Holdings – Net Profit +54% YoY, Non Life Premiums & Investment Income Are Drivers

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Giant Japan insurer reports staggering June 2024 quarter YoY growth, not only from securities gains, but also strong delta in core premiums written
  • Weak life insurance premiums is more than offset with well controlled costs, non-life premium income, investment income
  • Acceleration of cross-shareholding disposals can keep income high, with AFS totaling JPY13.8 trillion with unrealized gains of JPY2.8 trillion

EQD / NSE Vol Update / Controlled Detonation in Vols – Initial Jump Followed by Calmer Levels

By Sankalp Singh

  • IVs move higher in a controlled manner relative to U.S. markets. Combination of technical factors put a dampener on the Options Markets & IV turn lower by Week’s end.
  • Many determining factors underwent changes in Vol-Regime Model  – but threshold to switch out of “High & Down” state not achieved.
  • Smile & Skew characteristics blow out significantly on the open but settle at lower levels by week’s close.

Block Inc.: Focus on Banking Products and Direct Deposit Services & Other Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Block, Inc., the parent company to Block and Cash App, delivered robust results in the second quarter of 2024, reflecting strong growth in key business areas aligned with strategic initiatives.
  • The company reported a gross profit of $2.23 billion, marking a 20% year-over-year increase.
  • The Cash App segment notably outperformed, contributing a gross profit of $1.3 billion, up 23% year-over-year, thanks to the robust performance of the Cash App Card, Cash App Borrow, and Buy Now, Pay Later services.

J Trust Co Ltd (8508 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Operating revenue increased by JPY11.9bn YoY to JPY65.4bn (+22.2% YoY), driven by growth in financial and real estate businesses.
  • Operating profit decreased by JPY7.5bn YoY to JPY2.1bn (-78.4% YoY), with significant declines in the Real Estate Business.
  • Profit attributable to owners of parent decreased by 83.6% to JPY2.8bn, impacted by deferred tax liabilities reversal and forex gains.

Longfor Group – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Longfor Group’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental and Governance scores, while the Social score is “Strong”. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Adequate”. 


S&U – Anticipating regulatory clarity in H2

By Edison Investment Research

S&U’s H1 trading statement revealed similar trends to those in Q1. Advantage Finance remains in a consolidation phase amid industry discussions with the FCA on collections procedures and forbearance. The collection rate slipped slightly from 88% in Q1 to 87% for the half year. In contrast, Aspen Bridging continues to grow healthily with receivables up 13% since year-end, ‘excellent’ credit quality and a strong pipeline. Significantly, S&U describes the negotiations with the FCA as ‘nearing their conclusion’, which suggests there is potential for recovery at Advantage in H2. The latest 25bp base rate cut will also feed into H2 profitability as all debt is variable and unhedged. We maintain our estimates, which exclude any potential cost of redress, with more detail on the outlook likely to be disclosed at the half-year results on 8 October.


Aviva Plc – Company Update – July 17, 2024

By VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

  • Aviva plc is a United Kingdom-based insurance, wealth, and retirement business company.
  • Its segments include UK & Ireland Insurance, General Insurance, and Aviva Investors, International investments, and Other Operations.
  • Each fiscal year ending at December 31. | Year 2024: January to December 2024. | Year 2023: January to December 2023. | 6M 2024: January to June 2024


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Daily Brief Industrials: Adani Enterprises, Recruit Holdings, T.S. Lines, CBAK Energy Technology , CS Wind Corp, MARUKA FURUSATO , Quanta Services, U-Haul Holding , Ww Grainger Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Hindenburg Research Vs SEBI Chief: Allegations and Responses
  • Recruit: Labour Markets Continue to Trend Down, but Recruit’s Efforts Pay Off in 1Q
  • TS Lines Pre-IPO: Adjusted Book Value Approach Yields Estimated Equity Valuation of US$1.96-2.06 Bn
  • CBAT: Weathering the challenges in the battery cell market. Maintaining a 2.50/share target.
  • CS Wind (112610): Excellent Q2
  • MARUKA FURUSATO (7128 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update
  • Quanta Services: Enhanced Utility and Communication Infrastructure Services Driving Growth! – Major Drivers
  • UHAL: Reports 1Q FY2025 Results: Demand for self-moving equipment rentals increases YOY after seven quarters of single-digit declines. Self-Storage continues to deliver top-line growth.
  • UHAL: Reports 1Q FY2024 Results: Demand for self-moving equipment rentals increases YOY after seven quarters single-digit declines. Self-Storage continues to deliver top-line growth.
  • W.W. Grainger Inc.: A Closer Look At A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers


Hindenburg Research Vs SEBI Chief: Allegations and Responses

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Hindenburg Research released a report on SEBI Chief Madhabi Puri Buch, accusing her of conflicts of interest, particularly about the Adani Group.
  • Analysis of Responses given by Madhabi & Dhaval Buch, SEBI, 360 One and Adani.
  • Analysis of events and allegations made by Hindenburg on Madhabi and critical assessment on that.

Recruit: Labour Markets Continue to Trend Down, but Recruit’s Efforts Pay Off in 1Q

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) ’s share price has been up more than 40% YTD driven by better-than-expected earnings and an announcement to buy back ¥600bn worth shares.
  • The company’s 1Q earnings beat consensus and showed some recovery across all business segments, however, the labour markets are heading towards a decline.
  • It seems that the company has run out of investment options, and we would not rush to make an entry as worst is not over yet for the company.

TS Lines Pre-IPO: Adjusted Book Value Approach Yields Estimated Equity Valuation of US$1.96-2.06 Bn

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Container ships are standardized, and fleets can be “market to market” values
  • This approach suggests TS Lines’ equity could be worth > US$2.0 bn
  • However, there are some caveats that come with this valuation approach

CBAT: Weathering the challenges in the battery cell market. Maintaining a 2.50/share target.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • CBAK Energy Technology continues to leverage its strong relationships with portable energy and home energy storage manufacturers to deliver solid results.
  • Pricing pressures remain in the broader battery cell market but CBAK’s margins remained strong in Q2.
  • The company recorded another profitable quarter and we think investor confidence in the company should continue to grow despite quarter-to-quarter fluctuations.

CS Wind (112610): Excellent Q2

By Henry Soediarko

  • CS Wind Corp (112610 KS) is one of the biggest players in wind tower globally with a substantial presence in the US. 
  • Excellent Q2 24 operating numbers led to a sharp increase in the share price that is mainly driven by short covering. 
  • The revenue growth occurred without sacrificing profitability, a sign that the company is in the driving seat.

MARUKA FURUSATO (7128 JP): 1H FY12/24 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue decreased to JPY78.8bn (-7.4% YoY), operating profit fell to JPY1.7bn (-46.5% YoY), and recurring profit dropped to JPY2.2bn (-40.5% YoY).
  • Domestic machinery sales fell 18.9% YoY, overseas machinery sales declined 35.4% YoY, and equipment tools sales in Japan decreased 1.5% YoY.
  • Revenue in the Construction Products segment was JPY21.8bn (-1.6% YoY), with segment profit at JPY745mn (-26.0% YoY).

Quanta Services: Enhanced Utility and Communication Infrastructure Services Driving Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Quanta Services showcased robust financial performance for the second quarter of 2024, delivering double-digit growth in revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted earnings per share.
  • The company reported significant strength in its backlog, achieving a record total of $31.3 billion accompanied by strong cash flow generation.
  • These results stem largely from ongoing demand for Quanta’s services, fueled by multiyear programs focused on developing renewable energy and power grid infrastructure in North America.

UHAL: Reports 1Q FY2025 Results: Demand for self-moving equipment rentals increases YOY after seven quarters of single-digit declines. Self-Storage continues to deliver top-line growth.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • U-Haul Holding Company is the parent company of U-Haul International, the world’s largest consumer truck and trailer rental company.
  • U-Haul is also the third largest self-storage operator in North America.
  • U-Haul benefited in a leveraged manner from the increase in demand for self-moving services during the pandemic.

UHAL: Reports 1Q FY2024 Results: Demand for self-moving equipment rentals increases YOY after seven quarters single-digit declines. Self-Storage continues to deliver top-line growth.

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • U-Haul Holding Company is the parent company of U-Haul International, the world’s largest consumer truck and trailer rental company.
  • U-Haul is also the third largest self-storage operator in North America.
  • U-Haul benefited in a leveraged manner from the increase in demand for self-moving services during the pandemic.

W.W. Grainger Inc.: A Closer Look At A Bear’s Perspective! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • W.W. Grainger reported its financial results for the second quarter of 2024, reflecting a performance shaped by strategic alignments, moderate growth, and persistent macroeconomic challenges.
  • The company, led by Chairman and CEO D.G. Macpherson and CFO Dee Merriwether, emphasized the ongoing commitment to customer-centric innovations and operational adjustments amidst a transforming economic landscape.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Yum China Holdings , Giant Biogene, Hasbro Inc, Guangzhou Automobile Group, BrainBees Solutions, WeRide, Alibaba Group Holding , Ola Electric, BYD , Aditya Vision and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 10)
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for September
  • How a Traditional Toymaker Is Going Big on Digital Games
  • A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 Aug 2024): Global Market Vol. SB Bought. NB Sold. Premia Down.
  • Brainbees (FirstCry) IPO Trading – Decent Subscription and Valuation
  • WeRide (WRD US) IPO: The Bear Case
  • Alibaba (BABA US): 1Q25 Preview, Stable Growth and Margin, But Overly Impacted
  • Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) : Soaring High – How Much Higher Can It Go?
  • Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Aug 2024): Back to Net Selling of Renewables and Consumer
  • Narrative and Numbers | Electronics Retail | FY24


The Heat Is On: News Flow and Sentiment in CHINA / HONG KONG (August 10)

By David Mudd


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for September

By Brian Freitas

  • Post market close on Friday, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 6 September.
  • With no constituent changes in March and 1 add/1 delete in June, there could be more changes in September with Health Care stocks among the potential inclusions.
  • Changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) will be implemented from the September rebalance and that will alter industry coverage.

How a Traditional Toymaker Is Going Big on Digital Games

By Odd Lots

  • Monopoly was originally created as a critique of capitalism but became a massively successful business itself.
  • Hasbro has grossed over $3 billion in revenue from the app version of Monopoly.
  • Hasbro CEO, Chris Cox, will be discussing the development of Monopoly and other games on the podcast.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 9 Aug 2024): Global Market Vol. SB Bought. NB Sold. Premia Down.

By Travis Lundy

  • Delayed this week because of the long (Japanese holiday, which I took for myself) weekend, as were the SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND monitors. 
  • SOUTHBOUND inflow strong. Tencent strong inflows. Net buying every day for two weeks. NORTHBOUND outflows large. Record foreign investor outflows from China’s capital markets this year.
  • As expected (with AH 20d Premia returns at multi-year highs last week), AH Premia fell slightly, with narrow premia falling more than wide premia. I’d expect more H-vs-A gains.

Brainbees (FirstCry) IPO Trading – Decent Subscription and Valuation

By Sumeet Singh

  • BrainBees Solutions (FirstCry) raised around US$500m in its India IPO.
  • FirstCry is India’s largest multi-channel retailing platform for Mothers’, Babies’ and Kids’ products in terms of GMV, for the year ending Dec 2022 (9M23), according to RedSeer.
  • In our previous notes, we looked at the company’s past performance and valuations. In this note, we talk about the trading dynamics.

WeRide (WRD US) IPO: The Bear Case

By Arun George

  • WeRide (WRD US), a provider of autonomous driving products and services, seeks to raise up to US$119 million through a Nasdaq IPO and US$321 million through a concurrent private placement.
  • In WeRide (WRD US) IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
  • The bear case rests on a volatile revenue profile, high customer concentration risk, widening losses that raise doubts on the path to profitability, elongated cash collection cycles and cash burn.

Alibaba (BABA US): 1Q25 Preview, Stable Growth and Margin, But Overly Impacted

By Ming Lu

  • We believe revenue will increase by 8% YoY in 1Q25, as most business lines have been growing.
  • We believe the operating margin will be stable, as cost cut plans came to an end.
  • We set an upside of 94% for March 2025, as we believe the stock is overly impacted.

Ola Electric (OLAELEC IN) : Soaring High – How Much Higher Can It Go?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Ola Electric’s stock has surged since its Friday listing, despite a lukewarm IPO response. We look at a possible base-to-bullish case valuation range for Ola Electric’s stock price.
  • With the e2W market up 96% YoY in July and Ola Electric’s sales soaring 114%, the momentum is strong. Likely catalyst on the horizon adds to investor optimism.
  • Currently, on FY2026E EV/Revenue, Ola Electric trades on par with its closest Indian e2W peer.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 9 Aug 2024): Back to Net Selling of Renewables and Consumer

By Travis Lundy

  • The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
  • Last week saw NORTHBOUND net SELL RMB 14.8bn of A-shares. It was a big net sell week in relatively low gross NORTHBOUND volume.
  • HK large caps outperformed Mainland large caps generally. Tech (HSTECH vs Star50 and ChiNext) saw even better HK outperformance.

Narrative and Numbers | Electronics Retail | FY24

By Pranav Bhavsar

  • We focus on two electronics retailers Electronics Mart India (EMIL IN) & Aditya Vision (AVL IN) in this Narrative & Numbers for FY24. 
  • EMIL is a leading player in the consumer electronics industry in India, with a strong presence in South India. 
  • AVL is a leading player in the consumer electronics industry in India, with a strong presence in Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh.

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, New World Development, Rakuten, Shui On Land


Morning Views Asia: Adani Green Energy, New World Development, Rakuten, Shui On Land

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 9th): Tencent and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 9th): Tencent, Xiaomi Corporation, CCB, CNOOC, HSBC
  • A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 9th): Asymchem Lab, Shanghai Pharm, China Eastern, Air China, Smic, Hepalink
  • Northbound Flows (Aug 9th): Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Midea, CATL, Zhongji Innolight
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 9th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 9th): TSMC, Hon Hai, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech, Mediatek
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 9th): Hon Hai, Quanta Computer, TSMC, Elite Material, Asia Vital


Hong Kong Connect Flows (Aug 9th): Tencent, Xiaomi Corporation, CCB, CNOOC, HSBC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 9th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for Tencent, Xiaomi Corporation, CCB, CNOOC, HSBC.

A-H Premium Weekly (Aug 9th): Asymchem Lab, Shanghai Pharm, China Eastern, Air China, Smic, Hepalink

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 144 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 112.4% as of Aug 9th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by 1.5ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, information technology, energy and offset by utilities, health care.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Asymchem Lab, Shanghai Pharm, China Eastern, Air China, Smic, Hepalink, WuXi AppTec, Pharmaron, Hangzhou Tiger.

Northbound Flows (Aug 9th): Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Midea, CATL, Zhongji Innolight

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of August 9th.
  • We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$2,018.4 million, led by information technology, consumer discretionary, financials, and offset by health care, consumer staples, utilities.
  • We highlight flows for Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing, Midea, CATL, Zhongji Innolight.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 9th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Aug 9th which has an aggregated holding worth USD518.5bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,842mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS), Sk Hynix (000660 KS).

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Aug 9th): TSMC, Hon Hai, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech, Mediatek

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 9th which has an aggregated holding worth USD914.4bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD1,693mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Hon Hai, Quanta Computer, Unimicron Tech, Mediatek, Wiwynn.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Aug 9th): Hon Hai, Quanta Computer, TSMC, Elite Material, Asia Vital

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Aug 9th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD18.6bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Hon Hai, Quanta Computer, TSMC, Elite Material, Asia Vital, Gigabyte Tech, Zhen Ding Tech, Tcc Group Holdin, Global Unichip.

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Daily Brief ESG: To Be Selected by Global Investors as an Investment Target and more

By | Daily Briefs, ESG

In today’s briefing:

  • To Be Selected by Global Investors as an Investment Target, Increasing Cash Flow Is Crucial


To Be Selected by Global Investors as an Investment Target, Increasing Cash Flow Is Crucial

By Aki Matsumoto

  • The positive impact of increased dividends must be discounted because seniors, who receive most dividends, are non-working generations and are more vulnerable to the negative impact of rising consumer prices.
  • The high level of cash on hand should be used effectively for investments and shareholder returns. Looking at listed companies as a whole, both ROE and DOE are below FY2018.
  • Although the too-low dividend payout of Japanese companies have been corrected, the fact that ROE is still low means that few companies are chosen as investment targets by global investors.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): GEMWeekly (9 Aug 2024): HBM Chip Stockpiling; China Macro; Samsung and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • GEMWeekly (9 Aug 2024): HBM Chip Stockpiling; China Macro; Samsung, Infosys, SK Hynix


GEMWeekly (9 Aug 2024): HBM Chip Stockpiling; China Macro; Samsung, Infosys, SK Hynix

By Wium Malan, CFA


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Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (12th Aug 2024) – Ola Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (12th Aug 2024) – Ola Electric, Brainbees, WeRide, Akum, CR Beverages, Eternal Beauty


ECM Weekly (12th Aug 2024) – Ola Electric, Brainbees, WeRide, Akum, CR Beverages, Eternal Beauty

By Sumeet Singh

  • Aequitas Research’s weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
  • On the IPO front, the prior week witnessed a number of listings with divergent results.
  • Given the market volatility, there was only one large placements in the prior week.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Strong Spread Rebound Into Short Zone; ASE Remains Broken Down and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Strong Spread Rebound Into Short Zone; ASE Remains Broken Down
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.11) – 2024 NRDL Negotiation, China Biotech Outlook, Bottom Fish CanSino
  • Taiwan Tech Weekly: Watch Hon Hai & Zhen Ding Guidance for Servers, AI PCs/Mobiles, and IPhone 16
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – August 2024
  • BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 24Q2 – It Is Time to Open a New Chapter in China’s Pharmaceutical Industry
  • Pacific Basin (2343 HK): Looking for a 2H24 Upturn
  • Maersk Q224 Results | Strangely, Danish Container Giant Saw Limited Gains From Higher Spot Rates
  • Zylox-Tonbridge Medical Technology (2190.HK) – A Good Alpha-Generating Opportunity for Investors
  • Pointerra Ltd – New contracts from existing customer builds FY25 base
  • Ollamani (AGUILCPO MM) – Thursday, May 9, 2024


Taiwan Dual-Listings Monitor: TSMC Strong Spread Rebound Into Short Zone; ASE Remains Broken Down

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • TSMC: +16.1% Premium; Strong Spread Rebound, Potential Opportunity to Short the Spread
  • UMC: +1.6% Premium; Consider Shorting the Spread at This Level
  • ASE: +3.8% Premium; Uncertainty Remains on the Sustainability of the Recent Breakdown

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.11) – 2024 NRDL Negotiation, China Biotech Outlook, Bottom Fish CanSino

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • We summarized the varieties that would miss 2024 NRDL negotiation and have to wait until 2026 to enter medical insurance coverage. This however means competing products would have more advantages.
  • As the NRDL negotiation becomes more transparent/reasonable, there will be a balance point among companies’ profits, patient affordability and medical insurance budget. So, there’s no need to be overly pessimistic.
  • The approval process of CanSino’s PCV13i could be faster than expected. 2024 is the best time to bottom-fish this stock. Reasonable market value is at least RMB5 billion.

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Watch Hon Hai & Zhen Ding Guidance for Servers, AI PCs/Mobiles, and IPhone 16

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Last Week — TSMC’s July Revenue Soared, Asustek Guided for PC Growth Acceleration, While KYEC, Mediatek, and UMC Rebounded
  • Key Events — This Week Look to Hon Hai & Zhen Ding Earnings and Guidance for Servers, AI PCs/Mobiles, iPhone 16
  • PC Monitor: Promising Uptake of Microsoft Copilot and AI Services; Remain Structurally Long 

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – August 2024

By Sameer Taneja


BeiGene (6160.HK/BGNE.US) 24Q2 – It Is Time to Open a New Chapter in China’s Pharmaceutical Industry

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • BeiGene’s 24Q2 results far exceeded expectations. Sales of BRUKINSA may exceed that of Calquence for the first time next year. Breakeven in 2024 becomes possible if effective cost control continues.
  • BeiGene’s 2024 revenue could exceed Hengrui, marking the official transition of China’s innovative pharmaceutical industry from the old generation to the new one. Reasonable market value for BeiGene is US$19-27.5bn.
  • Current valuation cannot reflect strong fundamentals.As BeiGene has established a convincing profit model, the market turmoil actually provides investors with a good opportunity to buy the stock at low price.

Pacific Basin (2343 HK): Looking for a 2H24 Upturn

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Pacific Basin Shipping (2343 HK) may realise at least US$60m of revenue, or around 10% higher total TCE, in 2H24, based on its solid forward vessel coverage.  
  • Sustained re-routing of vessels due to Middle East tension and higher demand from China due to fixed asset spending are supportive of rates. FFA is now 3-4% higher than spot.
  • The stock is inexpensive at 9.7x PER and 0.8x P/B, and its 7.6% dividend yield is attractive. A solid balance sheet also means an upside on the payout ratio. 

Maersk Q224 Results | Strangely, Danish Container Giant Saw Limited Gains From Higher Spot Rates

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Despite rising spot rates, Maersk Q224 revenue and EBITDA both fell Y/Y
  • After lifting pessimistic guidance in June, Maersk upped FY24 targets again
  • We believe Maersk probably moved to limit spot exposure a year ago

Zylox-Tonbridge Medical Technology (2190.HK) – A Good Alpha-Generating Opportunity for Investors

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Zylox is a beneficiary of VBP and it has turned losses into profits. 2024 full-year revenue could be up 40-50% YoY. Net profit could be close to RMB100 million.
  • Whether in terms of the number of products on the market or the efficiency of R&D, Zylox’s performance is superior to peers.Its valuation is expected to be higher than peers.
  • We’re in a bear market, together with weak liquidity, Zylox’s valuation doesn’t fully reflect its strong fundamentals. So, while this is a good company, investors may need to be patient.

Pointerra Ltd – New contracts from existing customer builds FY25 base

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • RaaS has published a flash comment on 3D spatial data solutions group Pointerra (ASX:3DP) after its announcement that it has been awarded US$0.8m in new contracts by existing US energy utility customer Florida Power & Light (FPL).
  • The contracts will see Pointerra3D, the company’s AI-driven analytics platform, used to extract information and insights from 3D LiDAR and 2D imagery data.
  • We view the contracts as a positive sign that the contract delays and deferrals experienced by Pointerra in FY24 in its dealings with the US energy utility sector are coming to an end.

Ollamani (AGUILCPO MM) – Thursday, May 9, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • AGUIL is a sports/casino operator spun out of Televisa, with potential for earnings growth through expansion of casinos and broadcast rights for Club America soccer team
  • Current market cap of $320 million and low valuation of 9x current PE make AGUIL an attractive investment opportunity
  • Recent purchases of stock by Emilio Azcarraga Jean from Televisa US ADR holders further support long-term upside potential for AGUIL

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Event-Driven: Merger Arb Mondays (12 Aug) – China TCM and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (12 Aug) – China TCM, Canvest, GA Pack, Fuji Soft, Fancl, Descente, Takiron
  • Flow Developments to Watch as the Release of the Value-Up Index Approaches
  • Swire Properties (1972 HK): Buyback to Offset Passive Selling
  • Lineage (LINE): Year’s Biggest IPO Failed Fast-Entry. Addition Coming Soon.
  • Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: One Change Right at the Cusp



Flow Developments to Watch as the Release of the Value-Up Index Approaches

By Sanghyun Park

  • The plan is to select 20 large-cap companies from around 30 with value-up disclosures by late August, then gradually expand the index’s constituents.
  • Investors seeking both dividends and value-up benefits must buy stocks individually, as ETFs lack tax advantages, potentially triggering fund shifts from dividend ETFs to value-up stocks.
  • We can target stocks in dividend ETFs not making value-up disclosures, as they may face overhang risk during fund migration to the value-up index.

Swire Properties (1972 HK): Buyback to Offset Passive Selling

By Brian Freitas

  • Swire Properties (1972 HK) was trending lower on expectations of deletion from a global index in August. Short interest has jumped a lot over the last few months.
  • The announcement of the buyback last week took the stock higher. The increased real float from the index deletion will be offset by the buyback.
  • Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)‘s ownership of Swire Properties (1972 HK) will increase from 82% to 83.5% following the buyback and cancellation of the shares. Privatisation at some point?

Lineage (LINE): Year’s Biggest IPO Failed Fast-Entry. Addition Coming Soon.

By Dimitris Ioannidis

  • Lineage (LINE US) , with an IPO market cap of ~$18bn failed the fast-entry threshold of both main global indices with the threshold being more than ~$28bn. 
  • Based on the listing date of 25 July 2024, its addition is forecasted for September 2024, December 2024 and February 2025 in US and Global indices.
  • Lineage (LINE US) is expected to get added to the Top 1000 US companies index with forecasted demand of ~$340m and ~1.3 ADV at close of 20 September 2024.

Taiwan Top 50 ETF Rebalance Preview: One Change Right at the Cusp

By Brian Freitas


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