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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief South Korea: HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Connectwave and more

By | Daily Briefs, South Korea

In today’s briefing:

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) IPO: No Passive Buying Near-Term
  • MBK’s ConnectWave Tender Offer: Details & Trading Angles
  • Connect Wave: Tender Offer of 30% of Shares by MBK Partners


HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) IPO: No Passive Buying Near-Term

By Brian Freitas

  • HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) is looking to raise KRW 742bn (US$540m) in its IPO, valuing the company at KRW 3,707bn (US$2.69bn). Listing is expected to be in early-May.
  • Competition for the shares has been fierce with institutional investors indicating demand for 201x the number of shares on offer at prices higher than the top end of the range.
  • Barring a doubling of the stock price, the earliest that the stock will be added to major indices is December 2024. So, no passive buying in the short-term.

MBK’s ConnectWave Tender Offer: Details & Trading Angles

By Sanghyun Park

  • MBK Partners will launch a tender offer for ConnectWave from today to May 24th. The target volume is 16.6M shares (40% of SO) at ₩18,000 per share, a 15.6% premium.
  • MBK commits to acquiring all tendered shares, regardless of subscription rates, in order to expedite the delisting process. So, there is no cancellation or allocation risk.
  • ConnectWave’s retail investor base, with high entry prices, may hinder reaching 70% of the target volume. Absence of risks suggests considering buy positions for potential secondary tender offer.

Connect Wave: Tender Offer of 30% of Shares by MBK Partners

By Douglas Kim

  • After the market close on 26 April, it was reported that MBK Partners has launched a tender offer of a 29.61% stake of Connectwave (119860 KS).
  • The tender offer price is 18,000 won, which is 15.6% higher than the closing price (15,570 won) of the company on 26 April.
  • The tender offer period is from 29 April to 24 May. The amount of the tender offer is about 300 billion won. 

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Daily Brief United States: Hesai Group, Technology Select Sector SPDR, Tapestry Inc, Matterport and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Hesai Group: Time To Cover Shorts As The Stock Found A Bottom and Delisting Risk Is Real
  • Time to Tiptoe Back Into Big Tech?
  • Tapestry Inc (TPR) – Sunday, Jan 28, 2024
  • Mapping New Territory


Hesai Group: Time To Cover Shorts As The Stock Found A Bottom and Delisting Risk Is Real

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Hesai Group, one of the global leaders in the LiDAR and perception solutions market, completed its IPO in February 2023 and listed ADSs on the Nasdaq Global Select Market.
  • The stock peaked at $30+ during the first trading day and fell ~67% over the following 8 months as selling pressure intensified and investor sentiment worsened.
  • The stock has taken another leg down following U.S. DoD’s decision to include Hesai Group in 1260H list of Chinese military-linked companies. Hesai believes this inclusion is unjust and meritless.

Time to Tiptoe Back Into Big Tech?

By Cam Hui

  • Big Tech has been lagging the market since February and the relative performance reset is nearing an end. The overall stock market is undergoing a bottoming process.
  • Investment-Oriented accounts should be accumulating positions at these levels, but should be prepared for some near-term choppiness.
  • Tactically, we are inclined to overweight value over growth stocks for short-term performance.

Tapestry Inc (TPR) – Sunday, Jan 28, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Decline in TPR’s stock price after acquisition announcement
  • Author believes acquisition will benefit Tapestry Inc financially and strategically
  • Author sees dip in stock price as buying opportunity and remains bullish on TPR’s long-term prospects

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Mapping New Territory

By subSPAC

  • The last week of SPACs was packed with activity including buyouts, amendments, and terminations.
  • A digital mapping firm gets a boost with an acquisition by a Real Estate firm, and a Rare Earth mining-focused firm rejects a buyout from a SPAC.
  • Also, a SPAC lowers the valuation of a deal with a biotech firm, and a UK-based blank-cheque firm terminates a deal with an engineering business. 

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Daily Brief Japan: Sumitomo Chemical, Kokusai Electric and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Sumitomo Chemical (4005): Potential Posterchild of Japan’s Resurgence
  • ECM Weekly (29th Apr 2024) – IDEA, Kokusai, J&T, Krafton, Horizon, Oceana, ChaPanda, 99 Speed, Afcon


Sumitomo Chemical (4005): Potential Posterchild of Japan’s Resurgence

By Michael Allen

  • Sumitomo Chemicals aims to transform from a cyclical company with low market share in declining markets into a focused entity with high market share in secular growth markets.
  • We estimate that the stock’s fair value is about 140% above the current price.
  • Results meeting on April 30 should confirm that company is on track in returning to positive cash flow and selling off core assets. 

ECM Weekly (29th Apr 2024) – IDEA, Kokusai, J&T, Krafton, Horizon, Oceana, ChaPanda, 99 Speed, Afcon

By Sumeet Singh


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Daily Brief India: Maruti Suzuki India, NIFTY Index and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in May
  • EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 22-Apr-24 to 26-Apr-24


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in May

By Brian Freitas

  • Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-March in April. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.
  • The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
  • Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 14 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 7 could see passive outflows in May.

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 22-Apr-24 to 26-Apr-24

By Sankalp Singh

  • SEBI extends cross-margining discounts to correlated assets with different maturities – Dispersion trading & vol arb strategies to benefit. 
  • In spite of upcoming tier-1 event risks the vol surface has flattened  dramatically. Current IV levels are supportive of a continued “High & Down” vol state.
  • Curve steepening seen in Nifty50 IVs. Unusual kinked-shaped in BankNifty term structure has normalized – vol curve now has a uniform orientation.

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Daily Brief China: Tencent, Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals, China Education Group, Air China Ltd (H), China Vanke , Hygeia Healthcare Group and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tencent/Netease: Game Approval Rotate to Netease in April
  • China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.28)-TCM Formula Granule Outlook, Reduce CAR-T’s Price, Gan & Lee Pharma
  • China Education Group (839 HK): On Balance, Worth a Bet Now
  • Air China (753 HK): Steering Back to the Right Lane
  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Road King Infrastructure
  • Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078.HK) – High Growth in 2024 Is Not Guaranteed


Tencent/Netease: Game Approval Rotate to Netease in April

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • China announced game approval for the April batch. The number of games approved remained at a higher level than 2023.
  • The pace of China game approval appears to have accelerated to the same level as pre-tightening, though the number of approvals appears to be slower than March.
  • While Tencent scored zero, Netease got approval for one game.

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.28)-TCM Formula Granule Outlook, Reduce CAR-T’s Price, Gan & Lee Pharma

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • The performance of most TCM formula granule enterprises showed slow growth or even decline due to VBP in 2023. Although VBP will continue, it also brings opportunities for related companies. 
  • Customized production, expensive upstream raw materials/production equipment, complex supply chain systems, etc. are all major reasons for the high prices of CAR-T therapy, but we see hope for changes.
  • Gan & Lee Pharmaceuticals (603087 CH)’s core insulin business will continue to have decent growth based on positive VBP renewal results. It’s expected that in 2024, performance would further rebound.

China Education Group (839 HK): On Balance, Worth a Bet Now

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Education Group (839 HK) has turned more attractive after a valuation retreat and the return of reported and adjusted net profit to a positive trend in its 1H24 result.
  • Increase in the proportion of undergraduate studies, a better subject specialisation mix, higher accommodation revenue, and a rise in international education will drive unit student revenue.
  • More capacity upgrades will allow for a steady increase in student enrollment. Management expects adjusted EBITDA margin to stay stable in the next few years.

Air China (753 HK): Steering Back to the Right Lane

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Losses at Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) narrowed by 42.8% YoY to Rmb1.67bn in 1Q24. If not for the exchange losses, it will be reduced to below Rmb1bn.
  • Higher jet fuel prices have dragged result despite record 1Q revenue. However, an 8.3pp YoY margin expansion and a 4% decline in unit costs indicated profitability is climbing. 
  • Valuations are too depressed as the share price is still lacklustre but quarterly losses and gross margin have already trimmed from the troughs of Rmb10.5bn and -98%, respectively.

Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Road King Infrastructure

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Hygeia Healthcare Group (6078.HK) – High Growth in 2024 Is Not Guaranteed

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • According to Hygeia’s management, the 25% growth in previous guidance for 2024 would be exceeded. 24H1 would maintain a growth rate of 40+%, and the growth in 24H2 would accelerate.
  • However, progress of some projects is slower than expected, so a growth rate of 25%+ in performance forecast seems aggressive.After all, downward adjustment of performance guidance again is very uncomfortable.
  • P/E of 30-40 is reasonable range in short term. So, Hygeia is undervalued.In long term, revenue growth could fall to 15-20% because the contribution of M&A to performance would decline.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 26th): Zoomlion and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 26th): Zoomlion, Sinotrans, Remegen
  • TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 26th): Umc, Wistron, Wiwynn, Wt, TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Chung-Hsin
  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 26th): BOC, Tencent, China Mobile, HKEx, ZTO, Meituan, HSBC
  • Northbound Flows (Apr 26th): CMB, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuliangye, CATL, Mindray, Luxshare
  • TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 26th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Evergreen Marine, Eva Airways
  • KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 26th): Ecopro, Hyundai Motor, Krafton, Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics


A-H Premium Weekly (Apr 26th): Zoomlion, Sinotrans, Remegen

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 147 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 123.5% as of Apr 26th.
  • The average A-H premium changed by -8.5ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, financials, real estate.
  • We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for Zoomlion, Sinotrans, Remegen.

TWSE Short Interest Weekly (Apr 26th): Umc, Wistron, Wiwynn, Wt, TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Chung-Hsin

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 26th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD85.3bn
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Umc, Wistron, Wiwynn, Wt, TSMC, Evergreen Marine, Chung-Hsin, Ap Memory Tech.

Hong Kong Connect Flows (Apr 26th): BOC, Tencent, China Mobile, HKEx, ZTO, Meituan, HSBC

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 26th.
  • The top stocks by inflows and outflows were tabulated for all market, HSCEI, mid cap and s/mid cap groups.
  • We highlight flows for Bank Of China, Tencent, China Mobile, HKEx, Zto Express, Meituan, HSBC.

Northbound Flows (Apr 26th): CMB, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuliangye, CATL, Mindray, Luxshare

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of April 26th.
  • We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$3,861.7 million, led by consumer staples, financials, materials sectors, and offset by communication services.
  • We highlight flows for CMB, Moutai, Ping An Insurance, Wuliangye, CATL, Mindray, Luxshare Precision, Eoptolink Technology Inc.,, Imeik Technology Development, Zijin Mining, Bank Of Jiangsu, Midea.

TWSE Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 26th): TSMC, Quanta Computer, Evergreen Marine, Eva Airways

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of TWSE Stocks as of Apr 26th which has an aggregated holding worth USD3,910.9bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD3,975mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in TSMC, Quanta Computer, Evergreen Marine, Eva Airways, Hon Hai, Umc, ASE, Wistron, Asustek Computer, Chunghwa Telecom.

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 26th): Ecopro, Hyundai Motor, Krafton, Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX Stocks as of Apr 26th which has an aggregated holding worth USD522.3bn.
  • We estimate that foreign flows to be inflows of USD843mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
  • We highlight foreign changes in Ecopro, Hyundai Motor, Krafton, Sk Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hanmi Semicon.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Time to Tiptoe Back Into Big Tech? and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Time to Tiptoe Back Into Big Tech?


Time to Tiptoe Back Into Big Tech?

By Cam Hui

  • Big Tech has been lagging the market since February and the relative performance reset is nearing an end. The overall stock market is undergoing a bottoming process.
  • Investment-Oriented accounts should be accumulating positions at these levels, but should be prepared for some near-term choppiness.
  • Tactically, we are inclined to overweight value over growth stocks for short-term performance.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): US Banks – Residential Mortgage Loans Weekly Data Is Dismal and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • US Banks – Residential Mortgage Loans Weekly Data Is Dismal


US Banks – Residential Mortgage Loans Weekly Data Is Dismal

By Daniel Tabbush

  • Weekly high frequency data on US banks shows a major slow down continuing in residential mortgage loan growth
  • Mortgage loan applications index shows some of the worst figures in years in the latest weekly data
  • Core net interest income and credit costs can surprise even from an area that is traditionally not risky compared with CRE and C&I loans

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Daily Brief Credit: Morning Views Asia: China Vanke and more

By | Credit, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Road King Infrastructure


Morning Views Asia: China Vanke , Road King Infrastructure

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief ECM: ECM Weekly (29th Apr 2024) – IDEA and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • ECM Weekly (29th Apr 2024) – IDEA, Kokusai, J&T, Krafton, Horizon, Oceana, ChaPanda, 99 Speed, Afcon


ECM Weekly (29th Apr 2024) – IDEA, Kokusai, J&T, Krafton, Horizon, Oceana, ChaPanda, 99 Speed, Afcon

By Sumeet Singh


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