Category

Daily Briefs

Most Read: Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology, Maruti Suzuki India, L’Occitane, Kfc Holdings Japan, WorleyParsons Ltd, Mimasu Semiconductor Industry, Toyo Suisan Kaisha and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes as Potential Adds Outperform
  • India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in May
  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional VGO at HK$34
  • Carlyle Reportedly To Buy KFC Japan (9873) From MitCorp (8058) – Deal Likely Imminent
  • Worley Placement – Largest Shareholder Selling at an Attractive Discount
  • KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer
  • Worley (WOR): Impact of Dar Group’s A$1.4bn Sale
  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Geiger’s $34/Share Offer
  • Mimasu Semiconductor (8155 JP): Shin-Etsu (4063 JP)’s Pre-Conditional Tender Offer
  • Toyo Suisan: Activist Advocates For Legacy Divestiture & More Capital for Global Expansion


STAR100 Index Rebalance Preview: 10 Changes as Potential Adds Outperform

By Brian Freitas

  • The review period for the June rebalance ends 30 April. We expect the changes to be announced 31 May with the implementation taking place after the close on 14 June.
  • We forecast 10 changes for the index, including migrations between the STAR 100 Index and the SSE STAR50 (STAR50 INDEX)
  • Excluding the migrations, the potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes over the last few months and that could continue as we head to the end of the review period.

India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in May

By Brian Freitas

  • Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-March in April. There are companies with significant float changes from end-September and/or end-December.
  • The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
  • Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 14 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 7 could see passive outflows in May.

L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional VGO at HK$34

By Arun George

  • L’Occitane (973 HK) disclosed a conditional voluntary offer from Reinold Geiger at HK$34.00, a 15.3% premium to the last close and a 30.8% premium to the undisturbed price (5 February).
  • The minimum acceptance condition is that the offeror holds at least 90% of the shares held by disinterested shareholders, which enables the offeror to exercise compulsory acquisition rights.
  • Irrevocable and letters of support to accept represent 37.96% of disinterested shares. An attractive offer (representing an all-time high) should facilitate the offer being declared unconditional.

Carlyle Reportedly To Buy KFC Japan (9873) From MitCorp (8058) – Deal Likely Imminent

By Travis Lundy

  • On 28 Feb, the Nikkei reported (an article I missed) Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) would seek to unload its 35% stake in Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP) 
  • The stock popped, then continued to rise further. After the close Friday, the Nikkei reported MitCorp was close to a deal with Carlyle. A deal is apparently expected imminently.
  • I expect this could be a “Split Price Deal” (like Hitachi Transport and Pasona).

Worley Placement – Largest Shareholder Selling at an Attractive Discount

By Clarence Chu

  • DAR Group is looking to raise A$1.5bn (US$983m) from selling the majority of its stake in WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU).
  • DAR had attempted to privatize Worley in late 2016. Failing that attempt, it has been adding to its stake over the years.
  • As the deal isn’t a cleanup, there will be an overhang post-deal, although its a relatively small one at just 4.5% of DAR’s remaining stake; locked up for 30 days

KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • The Nikkei reports that Carlyle is in the final stages of buying Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s 35% stake in Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP), which will result in a tender offer. 
  • The structure will likely be similar to the KDDI Corp (9433 JP)/ Lawson Inc (2651 JP) tender, where MitCorp provides an irrevocable NOT to accept but vote for share consolidation.
  • The shares have been up 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.  

Worley (WOR): Impact of Dar Group’s A$1.4bn Sale

By Brian Freitas

  • Dar Al-Handasah has sold 19% of WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU) overnight at A$14.35/share, a 12% discount to the last close, to raise A$1.44bn (US$943m).
  • This reduces Dar’s stake in WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU) to 4.5% and will trigger upweights from index providers in the next few days.
  • The stake sale could also lead to a re-rating of the stock with a large blocking stake off the share register.

L’Occitane (973 HK): Geiger’s $34/Share Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • After nearly six years of conjecture, rumour – plus the key shareholder (holding 72.63% of shares out) contemplating a takeover – we finally have an Offer for L’Occitane (973 HK).
  • The price? $34/share, a 30.77% premium to undisturbed, and a figure a shade below the  HK$35/share flagged by Reuters last August deemed “false and without basis“. The price is final. 
  • This takeover is a Voluntary General Offer. The key condition is securing 90% of disinterested shareholders holding 27.36%. 9.6% of that number have provided irrevocable undertakings or letters of support.  

Mimasu Semiconductor (8155 JP): Shin-Etsu (4063 JP)’s Pre-Conditional Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP) recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) at JPY3,700, a 14.4% and 35.4% premium to the last close and undisturbed price, respectively. 
  • The pre-condition, which cannot be waived, is approval under the competition laws of Japan and Taiwan. The tender offer is expected to start in late July.
  • While the offer is below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range and the requested price, it is 7.7% higher than the all-time high of JPY3,435. This is done. 

Toyo Suisan: Activist Advocates For Legacy Divestiture & More Capital for Global Expansion

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Japanese instant noodle manufacturer Toyo Suisan Kaisha (2875 JP) has become the newest target for activist investors in Japan.
  • Nihon Global Growth Partners Management, Inc argues that Toyo Suisan’s investments are overly concentrated in its legacy businesses, despite these ventures yielding low returns.
  • Therefore, they are recommending that Toyo Suisan exit its legacy businesses, increase the payout ratio to 40%, and use some of its excess cash for a share buyback of ¥20bn.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Waaree Renewable Technologies, China Communications Construction, Csx Corp, Equifax Inc, Epwin Group PLC, Mytilineos Holdings Sa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric Railway’s Problems Are Part of a Cross-Shareholding Dissolution Process
  • Waaree Renewable Technologies Ltd- Forensic Analysis
  • China Comm Const (1800 HK): Continue to Deliver
  • CSX Corporation: Will Its Investments In Industrial Development Projects Yield Dividends? – Major Drivers
  • Equifax Inc.: Successful price/product strategy in the face of competition and customer price sensitivity! – Major Drivers
  • Epwin Group – Second earnings uplift this year after results exceed
  • Mytilineos – Strong Q1 and plans for potential London listing


Keisei Electric Railway’s Problems Are Part of a Cross-Shareholding Dissolution Process

By Aki Matsumoto

  • A solution for Keisei, similar to case of parent-subsidiary listing, is cashing OLC shares to raise profitability and growth potential of its business, to eliminate the distortion in market capitalization.
  • There is a corporate governance issue in that OLC is accepting board members from Keisei, which has below 20% equity and does not clearly explain the synergies of the business.
  • This can be viewed as part of dissolving cross-shareholdings where the company wants to obtain voting advantage without business synergies and cannot find opportunities to spend the cash it sells.

Waaree Renewable Technologies Ltd- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Waaree Renewable Technologies (WAREERTL IN) or (WRTL) is into Solar EPC and is a subsidiary of Waaree Energies Ltd. 
  • Revenues and order book have increased exponentially in the last few years.
  • While the business has certainly picked up, there are few forensic checks that need attention; most important being the auditor’s comment on the need to increase strength of internal controls.

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Continue to Deliver

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Communications Construction (1800 HK) maintained healthy earnings growth at 10% in 1Q24, ahead of the consensus expectation of 7.3% for full-year FY24.
  • A 0.2pp gross margin expansion and positive swing in credit and asset impairments are the drivers, though higher finance costs have offset some of their benefits.
  • 1Q24 new contracts were up 10.8%, and we estimate backlog equals 4.5x FY24F revenue. Despite YTD outperformance, it is still cheap at 2.4x PER and 0.2x P/B.

CSX Corporation: Will Its Investments In Industrial Development Projects Yield Dividends? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CSX Corporation had a solid start to 2024, dealing with a number of challenges, including severe weather in January and the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse.
  • Despite these difficulties, the corporation managed to maintain a consistent momentum with a volume performance that kept moving forward.
  • The company’s management remains committed to mitigating the impact of these challenges for its customers.

Equifax Inc.: Successful price/product strategy in the face of competition and customer price sensitivity! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Equifax Inc.’s strong start in 2024 is evident from its Q1 reported revenue of $1.389 billion, up 7%, resulting from sustained strength in mortgage revenue and global non-mortgage businesses.
  • Equifax’s adjusted EBITDA margins of 29.1% were also slightly above expectations.
  • Moreover, their adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.50 a share exceeded the high end of their guidance.

Epwin Group – Second earnings uplift this year after results exceed

By Edison Investment Research

Epwin’s FY23 results were robust and management navigated inflationary pressures well. Despite some market headwinds, we have increased our FY24 and FY25 underlying operating profit estimates for the second time this year. Long-term, well-established growth trends imply that Epwin is well-placed to leverage off increasing demand for its energy-efficient and low-maintenance building products. Epwin offers an attractive investment case with the potential for uplifts from additional self-funded M&A. It trades on an FY24e P/E ratio of 8.3x, materially below the long-term average of 10.5x, and yields c 6%. The extended share buyback programme should help support the share price.


Mytilineos – Strong Q1 and plans for potential London listing

By Edison Investment Research

On April 25, Mytilineos (MYTIL) announced, as part of its strategic review, that it is considering a potential international listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) within the next 12–18 months. Listing on the LSE would demonstrate a strong vote of confidence by MYTIL in the UK market and aligns with its international growth ambitions, allowing the company to leverage its geographically diverse portfolio of operations. It would provide greater liquidity for investors and enable MYTIL to continue to expand its global presence. While pursuing an LSE listing, MYTIL will retain its listing on the Athens Exchange, demonstrating its ongoing commitment to contributing to the Greek economy, while also acting as an ambassador for Greece in the UK.


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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: WorleyParsons Ltd, Deep Yellow Ltd, Anglo American, Copper, Iron Ore, Premier Energies Limited, Schlumberger Ltd, HI-Tech Pipes, Kinder Morgan and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Worley Placement – Largest Shareholder Selling at an Attractive Discount
  • Worley (WOR): Impact of Dar Group’s A$1.4bn Sale
  • ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Prior to the June Rebalance
  • Anglo American (AGL, AAL): JSE Index Effects of Potential Takeover or Restructuring
  • Global Commodities: Takeaways from CESCO Copper Week — The only way out is up
  • Iron Ore and The China Property/Auto Stimulus Angle
  • Premier Energies Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Schlumberger Limited: The ChampionX Acquisition
  • Hi-Tech Pipes: A.G.E. Analysis
  • Kinder Morgan Inc.: Expected Growth in Power Demand Positively Impacting Future Revenues! – Major Drivers


Worley Placement – Largest Shareholder Selling at an Attractive Discount

By Clarence Chu

  • DAR Group is looking to raise A$1.5bn (US$983m) from selling the majority of its stake in WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU).
  • DAR had attempted to privatize Worley in late 2016. Failing that attempt, it has been adding to its stake over the years.
  • As the deal isn’t a cleanup, there will be an overhang post-deal, although its a relatively small one at just 4.5% of DAR’s remaining stake; locked up for 30 days

Worley (WOR): Impact of Dar Group’s A$1.4bn Sale

By Brian Freitas

  • Dar Al-Handasah has sold 19% of WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU) overnight at A$14.35/share, a 12% discount to the last close, to raise A$1.44bn (US$943m).
  • This reduces Dar’s stake in WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU) to 4.5% and will trigger upweights from index providers in the next few days.
  • The stake sale could also lead to a re-rating of the stock with a large blocking stake off the share register.

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Prior to the June Rebalance

By Brian Freitas


Anglo American (AGL, AAL): JSE Index Effects of Potential Takeover or Restructuring

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • In this note we assess the JSE Top 40 index effect of an Anglo American restructuring or takeover by BHP, assuming the Amplats and Kumba stakes are spun out.
  • We also explore the details of BHP’s initial offer and what the market could be pricing with respect to a potential revision of BHP’s stock offer (minimum).
  • If Kumba is unbundled from Anglo American, we expect the stock to enter the JSE Top 40. Potential deletes are included in the note.

Global Commodities: Takeaways from CESCO Copper Week — The only way out is up

By At Any Rate

  • Copper market may be running ahead of a fundamental story, with extreme tightening in the copper concentrate market
  • Chinese demand has stepped back due to surging copper prices, but expected to acclimatize to higher price levels
  • Supply side challenges may take a couple more quarters to resolve, leading towards a tighter refined market in the future and potential supply shortfalls by 2030.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Iron Ore and The China Property/Auto Stimulus Angle

By Sameer Taneja

  • The short term is suddenly looking bullish for iron ore, as rumors abound that tier-1 cities in China may remove home-buying restrictions in May, and auto stimulus measures were announced. 
  • Cities like Chengdu and Nanjing have already announced measures to make home-buying more attractive, such as removing purchase qualifications and pilot programs for old-for-new home housing. 
  • We like 62% Fe and see it trade up to its upper limit of 130 USD/ton (vs. current 117 USD/ton). On equities, we like Vale (VALE US) .

Premier Energies Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are JP Morgan, Kotak, and ICICI Securities.
  • Premier Energies (Premier) is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. It also executes EPC projects and provides follow-up O&M services.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm was the second largest domestic manufacturer in terms of annual installed capacity as of Mar 2024.

Schlumberger Limited: The ChampionX Acquisition

By Baptista Research

  • During Schlumberger’s (SLB) first quarter 2024 earnings, the company’s evenue grew by 13% YoY, and EBITDA grew in the mid-teens, in line with SLB’s full-year financial ambitions.
  • International activity fuelled the growth, with revenue increases observed in 21 of the 25 international GeoUnits.
  • North America, however, showed a decrease in activity, resulting in a 6% YoY fall in revenue.

Hi-Tech Pipes: A.G.E. Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • HI-Tech Pipes (HITECH IN) is engaged in manufacturing of ERW Steel Round & Section Pipes, cold Rolled Strips, coils, and colour coated sheet, etc. and has distribution across India.
  • The company has grown impressively in the last 5-7 years and has seen improved balance sheet and working capital situation.
  • However, tapering return ratios, prolonged concern on cash conversion and erosion of margins are few talking points that should be taken into account.

Kinder Morgan Inc.: Expected Growth in Power Demand Positively Impacting Future Revenues! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Kinder Morgan’s latest quarterly earnings confirmed that the company had a robust quarter.
  • The Chairman of the Board, Mr.
  • Rich Kinder, highlighted the growth potential in the demand for natural gas, driven substantially by the increasing demand from new and expanding data centers, especially those required to support Artificial Intelligence (AI).

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Mimasu Semiconductor Industry, Luxshare Precision Industry, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), ASML Holding NV, Cadence Design Sys, USD Coin, Verizon Communications, Darktrace, Nokia Oyj, Sap Se Sponsored Adr and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Mimasu Semiconductor (8155 JP): Shin-Etsu (4063 JP)’s Pre-Conditional Tender Offer
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (29-Apr-2024): Apple expands supply chain in Southeast Asia, led by Vietnam.
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing: Significant Artificial Intelligence (AI) Opportunities & The Returns That Lie Ahead! – Major Drivers
  • ASML Holding: Surge In Demand due to Electrification & AI But What Are The Real Challenges? – Major Drivers
  • Cadence Design Systems: A Tale Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Tools and Technology Proliferation! – Major Drivers
  • Security Token Journal: Private Debt Tokens
  • Verizon Communications: What Are The Biggest AI & 5G Use Cases That Can Benefit Them? – Major Drivers
  • Thoma Bravo Agrees to Acquire Cybersecurity Player Darktrace
  • Nokia Corporation: Will The New NVIDIA Partnership & Positive Network Infra Spends Catalyze Growth? – Major Drivers
  • SAP SP: Driving Cloud ERP Suite Growth with AI & Data Capabilities! – Major Drivers


Mimasu Semiconductor (8155 JP): Shin-Etsu (4063 JP)’s Pre-Conditional Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • Mimasu Semiconductor Industry (8155 JP) recommended a pre-conditional tender offer from Shin Etsu Chemical (4063 JP) at JPY3,700, a 14.4% and 35.4% premium to the last close and undisturbed price, respectively. 
  • The pre-condition, which cannot be waived, is approval under the competition laws of Japan and Taiwan. The tender offer is expected to start in late July.
  • While the offer is below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range and the requested price, it is 7.7% higher than the all-time high of JPY3,435. This is done. 

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (29-Apr-2024): Apple expands supply chain in Southeast Asia, led by Vietnam.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Apple diversifies supply chain, focusing on Southeast Asia, led by Vietnam, while also shifting suppliers in India.
  • MediaTek plans to boost market presence and R&D in India, targeting 30% market share in China by 2H24 with Dimensity 9400 SoC.
  • US probe into China’s RISC-V role could impact Samsung’s AI chip ambitions, while STMicroelectronics aims for 100% renewable electricity by 2027.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing: Significant Artificial Intelligence (AI) Opportunities & The Returns That Lie Ahead! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) Q1 2024 earnings presented several key details about the firm’s current market standing and future performance.
  • For Q1 2024, they reported a 5.3% sequential decrease in revenue due to the impact of smartphone seasonality despite strong demand in high-performance computing (HPC).
  • Gross margin was also up to 53.1%, reflecting product mix changes, and the firm’s operating margin increased to 42%.

ASML Holding: Surge In Demand due to Electrification & AI But What Are The Real Challenges? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • ASML Holding N.V., a Europe-based semiconductor company, reported its 2024 first quarter financial results in a recent conference call.
  • Notably, the total net sales for the period were EUR 5.3 billion, matching the midpoint of the company’s guidance.
  • The company shipped 12 EUV systems and recognized revenue from 11 such units, amounting to EUR 1.8 billion in revenue.

Cadence Design Systems: A Tale Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Tools and Technology Proliferation! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cadence demonstrated a robust start to 2024 with a strong first quarter that exceeded its guidance range on all critical financial metrics.
  • Due to this exceptional performance, Cadence is increasing its financial outlook for the year.
  • Cadence finished the first quarter with an unexpected record backlog of $6 billion, placing the company in a strong position for the remainder of 2024 and beyond.

Security Token Journal: Private Debt Tokens

By Warut Promboon

  • We have been of the opinion that tokenized real world assets (RWAs), especially tokenized debt will represent a more understandable underlying value of tokens or cryptocurrencies than Bitcoin.
  • We are positive on tokens backed by risk-free assets such as US Treasuries or even investment-grade bonds as rates products for crypto funds and fractional investments for retail investors.
  • Private debt could be the next in line to enjoy mass adoption if the legal elements and credit protection have been put in place to gain trust of institutional investors.

Verizon Communications: What Are The Biggest AI & 5G Use Cases That Can Benefit Them? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Verizon reported a solid start to the fiscal year, with its demonstrated financial and operational performance primarily driven by its strategic focus and the relentless efforts by the company’s entire team.
  • The company achieved momentum across different segments, with Verizon’s Consumer business demonstrating significant improvements.
  • It saw an upturn in the postpaid phone net adds and marked another sturdy quarter of growth in the broadband subscriber base, indicating that the Consumer business is expected to contribute positively to the net adds this year.

Thoma Bravo Agrees to Acquire Cybersecurity Player Darktrace

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Thoma Bravo offers to acquire Darktrace (DARK LN) for $7.75/share in cash, 19.6% premium, 44.3% premium to 3-month VWAP, 148% to IPO price, 6.2x EV/Fwd NTM Revenue, 26.8x EV/Fwd NTM EBITDA.
  • Irrevocable undertakings total 14.4%. Darktrace’s innovative technology aligns well with existing offerings in the cybersecurity ecosystem, making it a potential target for acquisition by a larger, established vendor.
  • I think the proposed price is fair and see the take-out as a strong result for Darktrace shareholders. I believe the deal will close. Gross spread is 2.3%. Long.

Nokia Corporation: Will The New NVIDIA Partnership & Positive Network Infra Spends Catalyze Growth? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Nokia Corporation reported its first quarter 2024 results, which showed a decline in net sales by 19% year-on-year in constant currency.
  • This decrease was due to the weak spending environment present since the second quarter of last year.
  • The profit of Nokia’s three network businesses was affected by this trend, but this was counterbalanced by the benefits of deals signed in Nokia Technologies and ongoing cost reductions.

SAP SP: Driving Cloud ERP Suite Growth with AI & Data Capabilities! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • SAP’s Q1 2024 showcased a solid beginning towards their longer-term growth goals.
  • The company realized its targets of scaling up revenue and profitability for this period.
  • Key metrics for Q1, such as the current cloud backlog grew by 28% to €14.2 billion, and cloud revenue increased by 25%, reaching €3.9 billion.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Keisei Electric Railway Co, Waaree Renewable Technologies, China Communications Construction, Csx Corp, Equifax Inc, Epwin Group PLC, Mytilineos Holdings Sa and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Keisei Electric Railway’s Problems Are Part of a Cross-Shareholding Dissolution Process
  • Waaree Renewable Technologies Ltd- Forensic Analysis
  • China Comm Const (1800 HK): Continue to Deliver
  • CSX Corporation: Will Its Investments In Industrial Development Projects Yield Dividends? – Major Drivers
  • Equifax Inc.: Successful price/product strategy in the face of competition and customer price sensitivity! – Major Drivers
  • Epwin Group – Second earnings uplift this year after results exceed
  • Mytilineos – Strong Q1 and plans for potential London listing


Keisei Electric Railway’s Problems Are Part of a Cross-Shareholding Dissolution Process

By Aki Matsumoto

  • A solution for Keisei, similar to case of parent-subsidiary listing, is cashing OLC shares to raise profitability and growth potential of its business, to eliminate the distortion in market capitalization.
  • There is a corporate governance issue in that OLC is accepting board members from Keisei, which has below 20% equity and does not clearly explain the synergies of the business.
  • This can be viewed as part of dissolving cross-shareholdings where the company wants to obtain voting advantage without business synergies and cannot find opportunities to spend the cash it sells.

Waaree Renewable Technologies Ltd- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Waaree Renewable Technologies (WAREERTL IN) or (WRTL) is into Solar EPC and is a subsidiary of Waaree Energies Ltd. 
  • Revenues and order book have increased exponentially in the last few years.
  • While the business has certainly picked up, there are few forensic checks that need attention; most important being the auditor’s comment on the need to increase strength of internal controls.

China Comm Const (1800 HK): Continue to Deliver

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • China Communications Construction (1800 HK) maintained healthy earnings growth at 10% in 1Q24, ahead of the consensus expectation of 7.3% for full-year FY24.
  • A 0.2pp gross margin expansion and positive swing in credit and asset impairments are the drivers, though higher finance costs have offset some of their benefits.
  • 1Q24 new contracts were up 10.8%, and we estimate backlog equals 4.5x FY24F revenue. Despite YTD outperformance, it is still cheap at 2.4x PER and 0.2x P/B.

CSX Corporation: Will Its Investments In Industrial Development Projects Yield Dividends? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CSX Corporation had a solid start to 2024, dealing with a number of challenges, including severe weather in January and the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse.
  • Despite these difficulties, the corporation managed to maintain a consistent momentum with a volume performance that kept moving forward.
  • The company’s management remains committed to mitigating the impact of these challenges for its customers.

Equifax Inc.: Successful price/product strategy in the face of competition and customer price sensitivity! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Equifax Inc.’s strong start in 2024 is evident from its Q1 reported revenue of $1.389 billion, up 7%, resulting from sustained strength in mortgage revenue and global non-mortgage businesses.
  • Equifax’s adjusted EBITDA margins of 29.1% were also slightly above expectations.
  • Moreover, their adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.50 a share exceeded the high end of their guidance.

Epwin Group – Second earnings uplift this year after results exceed

By Edison Investment Research

Epwin’s FY23 results were robust and management navigated inflationary pressures well. Despite some market headwinds, we have increased our FY24 and FY25 underlying operating profit estimates for the second time this year. Long-term, well-established growth trends imply that Epwin is well-placed to leverage off increasing demand for its energy-efficient and low-maintenance building products. Epwin offers an attractive investment case with the potential for uplifts from additional self-funded M&A. It trades on an FY24e P/E ratio of 8.3x, materially below the long-term average of 10.5x, and yields c 6%. The extended share buyback programme should help support the share price.


Mytilineos – Strong Q1 and plans for potential London listing

By Edison Investment Research

On April 25, Mytilineos (MYTIL) announced, as part of its strategic review, that it is considering a potential international listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) within the next 12–18 months. Listing on the LSE would demonstrate a strong vote of confidence by MYTIL in the UK market and aligns with its international growth ambitions, allowing the company to leverage its geographically diverse portfolio of operations. It would provide greater liquidity for investors and enable MYTIL to continue to expand its global presence. While pursuing an LSE listing, MYTIL will retain its listing on the Athens Exchange, demonstrating its ongoing commitment to contributing to the Greek economy, while also acting as an ambassador for Greece in the UK.


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Daily Brief Health Care: Pacific Smiles, Indegene Limited, M3 Inc, Siloam International Hospitals, AFT Pharmaceuticals, Intuitive Surgical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU): A Brace Of Offers
  • Indegene Limited Pre-IPO: Subscribe on Profitable Niche Business Model and Attractive Valuation
  • M3 4Q Results: Earnings Miss and Further Slowdown Seems Unavoidable
  • Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ) – Raising Clinical Acuity
  • AFT Pharmaceuticals – Expanded R&D pipeline to fuel LT growth
  • Intuitive Sugrical: How Long Will The Growing Procedure Volume Last & What Are The Major Challenges Ahead? – Major Drivers


Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU): A Brace Of Offers

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 18th December 2023, Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), an operator of dental centers, announced and rejected a A$1.40/share non-binding proposal from Genesis Capital. Genesis subsequently increased its stake to 19.90%.
  • Genesis then bumped its NBIO to A$1.75/share on the 19 March and was granted due diligence on a non-exclusive basis. PSQ said it would support the revised terms if firmed. 
  • PSQ has now entered a Scheme with National Dental Care at A$1.90/share. The Offer also requires FIRB signing-off. But the proposal is a non-starter if Genesis rejects terms. 

Indegene Limited Pre-IPO: Subscribe on Profitable Niche Business Model and Attractive Valuation

By Tina Banerjee

  • Indegene Limited (1864095D IN) has set IPO price band at INR430–452 per share. The IPO consists of fresh issue as well as OFS by existing shareholders.
  • Considering FY24 annualized post-IPO EPS of INR13.48, Indegene seeks a P/E valuation of 31.9–33.5x.
  • Considering niche business focus, proven execution capability, marquee clientele, long-standing client relationship, life science focus, and comprehensive offering, Indegene’s valuation seems quite attractive.

M3 4Q Results: Earnings Miss and Further Slowdown Seems Unavoidable

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 4Q and Full-year FY03/2024 results. Earnings missed both guidance as well as consensus due to slowdown in Medical Platform and Overseas businesses.
  • Medical Platform’s earnings declined further in 4Q with spending cuts by pharma companies, and it seems that the segment’s earnings will further decline going forward.
  • M3’s share price is down 18% YTD, and we do not see many catalysts to drive a rally in the company’s share price.

Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ) – Raising Clinical Acuity

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Siloam International Hospitals booked a solid set of 1Q2024 results, with sustained QoQ improvements in revenues, EBITDA, and profits, stripping out a one-off write-down for hospitals under development. 
  • The company also saw strong improvements in operational metrics including inpatient and outpatient days, with especially strong performance in March due to a dengue epidemic, which also diluted patient intensity. 
  • Siloam International Hospitals saw continuing strength in more complex treatments, as it focused on raising clinical acuity in areas such as transplants and cardiology. Valuations remain attractive relative to peers.

AFT Pharmaceuticals – Expanded R&D pipeline to fuel LT growth

By Edison Investment Research

While AFT continues to gain commercial traction from Maxigesic/ Combogesic IV sales in the US (launched by partner Hikma in Q1 CY24) and anticipates the launch of Crystaderm in China, a strong R&D pipeline is central to AFT’s long-term growth ambitions. AFT recently announced the seventh addition to its R&D portfolio, a non-invasive topical alternative treatment for keloid and hypertrophic scarring, addressing the limited treatment algorithm for keloid scars (raised, thickened scars). This development collaboration is with Massey Ventures and the Gillies McIndoe Research Institute, and continues AFT’s initial collaboration with these parties from 2022, for the treatment of strawberry birthmarks.


Intuitive Sugrical: How Long Will The Growing Procedure Volume Last & What Are The Major Challenges Ahead? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Intuitive Surgical delivered a healthy first quarter performance with strong procedure growth and solid capital placements.
  • However, the company also faced some regional challenges during the quarter.
  • Core measures of the company’s operations remained strong, as seen in its robust procedure growth and solid capital placements.

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Daily Brief Consumer: L’Occitane, Kfc Holdings Japan, SHEIN, Toyo Suisan Kaisha, Prosus NV, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, Mitsubishi Motors, JD.com Inc (ADR) and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional VGO at HK$34
  • Carlyle Reportedly To Buy KFC Japan (9873) From MitCorp (8058) – Deal Likely Imminent
  • KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer
  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Geiger’s $34/Share Offer
  • SHEIN IPO: The Biggest IPO in 2024 in London?
  • Toyo Suisan: Activist Advocates For Legacy Divestiture & More Capital for Global Expansion
  • NPN X PRX Discount Update Post Tencent Early Game Release News Flow
  • Fuyao Glass (3606 HK):  Global Champion Benefiting From Structural Uptrend
  • Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-Apr 2024 Estimates
  • International Automobile Analysis


L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional VGO at HK$34

By Arun George

  • L’Occitane (973 HK) disclosed a conditional voluntary offer from Reinold Geiger at HK$34.00, a 15.3% premium to the last close and a 30.8% premium to the undisturbed price (5 February).
  • The minimum acceptance condition is that the offeror holds at least 90% of the shares held by disinterested shareholders, which enables the offeror to exercise compulsory acquisition rights.
  • Irrevocable and letters of support to accept represent 37.96% of disinterested shares. An attractive offer (representing an all-time high) should facilitate the offer being declared unconditional.

Carlyle Reportedly To Buy KFC Japan (9873) From MitCorp (8058) – Deal Likely Imminent

By Travis Lundy

  • On 28 Feb, the Nikkei reported (an article I missed) Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) would seek to unload its 35% stake in Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP) 
  • The stock popped, then continued to rise further. After the close Friday, the Nikkei reported MitCorp was close to a deal with Carlyle. A deal is apparently expected imminently.
  • I expect this could be a “Split Price Deal” (like Hitachi Transport and Pasona).

KFC Holdings Japan (9873 JP): Carlyle Edging Towards a Tender Offer

By Arun George

  • The Nikkei reports that Carlyle is in the final stages of buying Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)’s 35% stake in Kfc Holdings Japan (9873 JP), which will result in a tender offer. 
  • The structure will likely be similar to the KDDI Corp (9433 JP)/ Lawson Inc (2651 JP) tender, where MitCorp provides an irrevocable NOT to accept but vote for share consolidation.
  • The shares have been up 33.6% since Nikkei flagged the sale on 28 February. KFC Japan will trade in line with peers’ multiples at a JPY5,700 offer.  

L’Occitane (973 HK): Geiger’s $34/Share Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • After nearly six years of conjecture, rumour – plus the key shareholder (holding 72.63% of shares out) contemplating a takeover – we finally have an Offer for L’Occitane (973 HK).
  • The price? $34/share, a 30.77% premium to undisturbed, and a figure a shade below the  HK$35/share flagged by Reuters last August deemed “false and without basis“. The price is final. 
  • This takeover is a Voluntary General Offer. The key condition is securing 90% of disinterested shareholders holding 27.36%. 9.6% of that number have provided irrevocable undertakings or letters of support.  

SHEIN IPO: The Biggest IPO in 2024 in London?

By Douglas Kim

  • Although Shein has yet to formally announce the listing destination, there is a growing anticipation that the listing venue could be London, rather than New York. 
  • It has been reported that the company has more than doubled its net profit to more than US$2 billion in 2023. 
  • The company is currently seeking a corporate value of nearly US$70 billion to US$90 billion in the Shein IPO which would be one of the biggest IPOs globally in 2024. 

Toyo Suisan: Activist Advocates For Legacy Divestiture & More Capital for Global Expansion

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Japanese instant noodle manufacturer Toyo Suisan Kaisha (2875 JP) has become the newest target for activist investors in Japan.
  • Nihon Global Growth Partners Management, Inc argues that Toyo Suisan’s investments are overly concentrated in its legacy businesses, despite these ventures yielding low returns.
  • Therefore, they are recommending that Toyo Suisan exit its legacy businesses, increase the payout ratio to 40%, and use some of its excess cash for a share buyback of ¥20bn.

NPN X PRX Discount Update Post Tencent Early Game Release News Flow

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Last week Monday, Tencent confirmed the early release of Dungeon and Fighter Mobile, a highly anticipated mobile adaptation of the computer game developed by Nexon.
  • The game is expected to be released in China on the 21st of May following positive test results.
  • Tencent was the 11th best performing constituent in the HSTECH index for the week (out of 30), returning 14.7%. The index ended the week up 13.4%.

Fuyao Glass (3606 HK):  Global Champion Benefiting From Structural Uptrend

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) is the largest auto glass producer in the world, with an estimated 40% market share globally, and a dominant 65% market share in China.
  • The investment case for Fuyao include:  ASP increase from product mix upgrade; increasing sales volume due to more auto glasses needed per car; and improving margins.
  • The company has production bases in China with annual production volume of around 32.5 million units, and in US with annual production volume of around 5.5 million units.

Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2024: End-Apr 2024 Estimates

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted market-value-weighted (capped) index composed of 400 constituents.
  • A periodic review is conducted by the Index providers, the JPX Group and Nikkei Inc, in August every year. We look at the rankings of the potential ADDs/DELs every month.
  • Below is a look at potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 index rebal event to come in August 2024 based on trading data as of end-April 2024.

International Automobile Analysis

By Douglas Busch

  • Spanning the globe for current best-in-breed auto players shows diverging action.
  • New pair suggestion: Long Tesla/Short Rivian. Bottom could be in on TSLA
  • Updated JD.com general status from last week’s China/Japan Note encouraging.

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Daily Brief Financials: Bombay Stock Exchange, Hang Seng Index, BFI Finance Indonesia, Bitcoin, Greentown China, Marsh & Mclennan, Princess Private Equity Holdin and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • BSE – A Regulatory Accident?
  • EQD | HSI Closing April Up Changes Our Forecast!
  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Slower Recovery in Process
  • Crypto Crisp: Stripe Returns to Crypto
  • Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Greentown China, Medco Energi, Yankuang Energy Group
  • Marsh & McLennan Companies: How Will The Increased Automation & Efficiency In Operations Impact Its Bottom-Line In 2024 & 2025? – Major Drivers
  • Princess Private Equity Holding – Introducing a well-defined buyback policy


BSE – A Regulatory Accident?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • SEBI has asked BSE to pay regulatory fees on options trading based on notional turnover instead of premium turnover
  • The impact of this would 10-20% on earnings in short term
  • The bigger question lies ahead what BSE will do to offset the impact and grow its market share in derivative trading

EQD | HSI Closing April Up Changes Our Forecast!

By Nico Rosti

  • If the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) closes the month of April up (i.e. above 16541.42), our previous forecast will change (read the insight below for the detailed analysis).
  • The index performed an impressive bounce from the support levels (16050) we indicated in our previous insight, it is very overbought (WEEKLY model) and may close April up.
  • A continuation of the WEEKLY uptrend is in doubt, this week, while the MONTHLY situation is more complex.

BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Slower Recovery in Process

By Angus Mackintosh

  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) booked a solid set of 1Q2024 numbers with improved QoQ bookings, although with some concerns over challenging market conditions slowing the recovery.
  • The NPF ratio saw an ongoing improvement, although the cost of capital increased due to higher write-offs from last year’s bookings. Revenue declined due to a shift to lower-risk products. 
  • The outlook for BFIN in 2H2024 looks more positive, with the company shifting back to higher-return products and with lower expected credit costs. Valuations are appealing on 1.5x PBV.

Crypto Crisp: Stripe Returns to Crypto

By Mads Eberhardt

  • It is no surprise that we have maintained a bullish stance in crypto over the past month, given the uptick in US dollar liquidity and the easing tensions between Israel and Iran.
  • Despite these factors, the market adopted a predominantly pessimistic view, highlighted by a negative futures funding rate.
  • This suggested to us that the market was misaligned with the outside environment.

Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Greentown China, Medco Energi, Yankuang Energy Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


Marsh & McLennan Companies: How Will The Increased Automation & Efficiency In Operations Impact Its Bottom-Line In 2024 & 2025? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Based on the latest Q1 2024 financial results of Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc., there are several key highlights presenting a neutral standpoint of the company’s performance.
  • Positive aspects include strong underlying revenue growth of 9% and an upswing of 11% in adjusted operating income compared to the prior year.
  • The company’s adjusted operating margin expanded by 80 basis points from Q1 2023 and completed $300 million of share repurchases within the quarter.

Princess Private Equity Holding – Introducing a well-defined buyback policy

By Edison Investment Research

Princess Private Equity Holding’s (PEY’s) 12-month NAV total return (TR) to end-February 2024 was a modest 0.6% amid low exit activity across private equity (PE) markets. That said, if the pick-up in global M&A volumes witnessed earlier in 2024 continues, it should support PEY’s exit activity. This in turn would translate into improved returns if PEY delivers sizeable uplifts to previous carrying values upon exits, as it has done historically. In this context, we note that PEY has a good pipeline of mature investments that are potentially ripe for sale. PEY’s shares now trade at a 24% discount to NAV versus a 10-year average of 18%.


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Daily Brief Australia: Azure Minerals, Jumbo Interactive, Carly Holdings, Venture Minerals and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Merger Arb Mondays (29 Apr) – Azure, Silver Lake, Roland DG, CF Logistics, China TCM, Hollysys
  • Jumbo Interactive Ltd (JIN) – Sunday, Jan 28, 2024
  • Carly Holdings – Growth continues apace
  • Venture Minerals Ltd – Jupiter REE discovery expands the portfolio



Jumbo Interactive Ltd (JIN) – Sunday, Jan 28, 2024

By Value Investors Club

Key points

  • Jumbo Interactive Ltd (ASX: JIN) operates in the online lottery industry in Australia, with a 20% market share and offering digital Australian lottery tickets through its mobile app and website.
  • The company, founded in 1995 by CEO Mike Veverka, is highly cash generative and has a favorable duopolistic market structure, positioning it for potential stock value growth and expansion as more customers shift to online channels.
  • JIN is viewed as a defensive investment option with strong margins and cash generation potential, particularly through its SaaS/Managed Services offering, making it an appealing choice for investors looking for long-term growth.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Carly Holdings – Growth continues apace

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Carly Holdings Limited (ASX:CL8) operates a vehicle subscription service that is a shorter-term alternative to lease, loan or outright purchase of a vehicle.
  • Average subscription period is five+ months vs. three+ years for more traditional options.
  • The subscription includes insurance, registration and maintenance.

Venture Minerals Ltd – Jupiter REE discovery expands the portfolio

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

  • Venture Minerals Limited (ASX:VMS) is an ASX-listed critical minerals explorer with a focus on rare earth elements (REE), precious metals and tin-tungsten deposits in Western Australia and Tasmania.
  • The company has recently announced significant drilling assay results from its Jupiter prospect within the Brothers rare earths element project in WA which potentially positions VMS with one of the largest clay-hosted REE prospects in Australia.
  • VMS is also undertaking a feasibility study on underground mining at its Mount Lindsay tin-tungsten project in Tasmania and says it has appointed advisers, Argonaut, to undertake a strategic review of its nearby Riley iron ore mine.

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Daily Brief Thailand: Berli Jucker and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thailand

In today’s briefing:

  • SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation & More Changes in June


SET50 Index Rebalance Preview: Market Consultation & More Changes in June

By Brian Freitas

  • The SET has run a market consultation on relaxing liquidity thresholds for inclusion of stocks in the Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index (SET50 INDEX) universe.
  • The consultation is the result of an increase in Average Daily Trading Values and lower turnover ratios, especially for large cap stocks.
  • Berli Jucker (BJC TB) is now a potential index inclusion in June and that could result in four constituent changes at the next rebalance.

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