Category

Daily Briefs

Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Mediatek Inc, Krafton , Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) – ADR, Asustek Computer, Tech Mahindra, TBO Tek, Vanguard Intl Semiconductor, Visa, Texas Instruments, SmartRent and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Apr-2024): AI server cooling: liquid & air solutions
  • Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (Mar and Apr 2024)
  • Deep Dive Into Samsung’s Memory & Foundry Results: TSMC, AI PC, Server, AI Phone Implications
  • PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle
  • Mohit Joshi: The Man Behind Tech Mahindra’s Strategic Shift
  • TBO Tek Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates & Peer Comparison
  • Vanguard (5347.TT):  1Q24 Sales Did Reach the Bottom, and 2Q24F Rebounds ~15% QoQ in Sales.
  • Visa Inc.: How Is It Capturing Market Share From Domestic Card Networks? – Major Drivers
  • Texas Instruments: Fresh Investments In Manufacturing & Technology & 5 Critical Growth Drivers
  • Smartrent Inc (SMRT) – Tuesday, Jan 30, 2024


Tech Supply Chain Tracker (30-Apr-2024): AI server cooling: liquid & air solutions

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • AI server cooling options include liquid & air solutions to improve efficiency and performance.
  • India is set to introduce a new chip incentive package to boost its semiconductor industry.
  • Apple’s supply chain expansion in Southeast Asia, especially Vietnam, has been significant, while MediaTek aims for 30% market share in China with upcoming flagship SoC.

Alpha Generation Through Share Buybacks in Korea: Bi-Monthly (Mar and Apr 2024)

By Douglas Kim

  • In this insight, we discuss the alpha generation through companies that announced share buybacks in Korea in March and April 2024.
  • We provide a list of 30 stocks in the Korean stock market that have announced share buyback programs in the past two months.
  • Major companies that have announced share buybacks in Korea in the past two months include Krafton (259960 KS), Celltrion Inc (068270 KS), and Woori Financial Group (316140 KS).

Deep Dive Into Samsung’s Memory & Foundry Results: TSMC, AI PC, Server, AI Phone Implications

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Samsung 1Q24 results beat consensus by a wide margin and the company gave strong guidance for its Memory segment, guiding for further strength driven by servers, PCs, & phones needs.
  • Guided strong demand for PC/Mobile Memory in 2H24E driven by on-device AI, which supports the case of edge AI hardware beginning to drive demand in addition to cloud/server-based AI hardware.
  • Foundry segment’s losses reduced, but still loss-making? Samsung’s order backlog is at an all-time high but Samsung Foundry results suggest manufacturing yield performance likely well behind TSMC.

PC Monitor: The Next Version of MSFT CoPilot Will Be the Killer App for a Global AI PC Upgrade Cycle

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Branded PC makers’ shares have been mostly lower in April, however Intel and Microsoft developments are providing strong signals for a future PC upgrade cycle into AI PCs.
  • Over 60% of Fortune 500 companies are now using Microsoft’s CoPilot AI assistant; Intel expects the industry to exceed its prior forecast for AI PC shipments in 2024E.
  • CoPilot is the killer app that will trigger a global enterprise PC upgrade cycle; The next generation of CoPilot will be an edge AI app that will require powerful hardware.

Mohit Joshi: The Man Behind Tech Mahindra’s Strategic Shift

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • Under Mohit Joshi’s leadership, Tech Mahindra (TECHM IN) targets a 15%+ EBIT margin and revenue growth surpassing industry averages by FY2027, with a focus on operational reform and portfolio integration.
  • Project Fortius aims to achieve $250 million annual cost savings over 3 years, emphasizing high-margin services and organic growth, signaling a departure from  reliance on traditional acquisitions.
  • This strategic shift towards operational efficiency and organic growth alters the company’s outlook, positioning Tech Mahindra for sustainable growth and shareholder returns, underlining a commitment to long-term value creation.

TBO Tek Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates & Peer Comparison

By Ethan Aw

  • TBO Tek (0395045D IN) is looking to raise approximately US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • TBO Tek is a global travel distribution platform. Its two-sided technology platform serves companies involved in the travel industry such as hotels, airlines, travel agencies and travel management companies.
  • In our previous note, we talked about the company’s historical performance. In this note, we talk about its refiling updates and undertake a peer comparison.

Vanguard (5347.TT):  1Q24 Sales Did Reach the Bottom, and 2Q24F Rebounds ~15% QoQ in Sales.

By Patrick Liao

  • 1Q24 sales reached 96% of 4Q23, the recent low of sales, but GM upside 1% QoQ.   
  • Demand is gradually picking up in 2Q24F, but inventory adjustments for industrial and automotive applications are ongoing.  
  • Specifically speaking, in 2Q24 we expect to see a revival in demand, with QCOQ and MPS potentially beginning to place orders in Fab 5.

Visa Inc.: How Is It Capturing Market Share From Domestic Card Networks? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Visa’s Fiscal Second Quarter 2024 Earnings indicate that Visa appears to be standing on solid financial ground with plenty of room for growth.
  • The leading global payments technology company recorded $8.8 billion in net revenue for the quarter, marking a 10% increase.
  • Its GAAP Earnings Per Share (EPS) rose by 12%, while non-GAAP EPS also saw an upward movement by 20%.

Texas Instruments: Fresh Investments In Manufacturing & Technology & 5 Critical Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Texas Instruments (TI) reported a first quarter of 2024 revenue that met expectations, despite witnessing a 10% sequential and 16% year-over-year decrease to $3.7bn.
  • Revenue declined across all of its end markets as customers continued to pare their inventory levels.
  • In terms of individual revenue components, Analog revenue declined 14% year-over-year, Embedded Processing declined 22%, and the Other segment declined 33% from the year-ago quarter.

Smartrent Inc (SMRT) – Tuesday, Jan 30, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • SmartRent aims to increase their market share in the smart home solutions industry, specifically in the multifamily real estate sector in the US
  • They leverage their innovative Smart Home Operating System to lower costs for landlords and increase revenues through enhanced property management capabilities
  • SmartRent’s three business lines offer a comprehensive and scalable solution for property owners, with a focus on professional services, hardware sales, and hosted services to capitalize on the growing demand for smart home technologies in the real estate market.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Health Care: Ono Pharmaceutical, S&P 500 INDEX, Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group , Novartis and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP): Deciphera Acquisition Will Not Bring Immediate Respite
  • Are the Lows “In” For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding
  • Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692.HK) – Growth Would Remain Strong in 2024, but Ameile Is Facing Headwinds
  • Novartis AG: Positive Expectations for Scemblix & 5 Other Major Developments


Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP): Deciphera Acquisition Will Not Bring Immediate Respite

By Tina Banerjee

  • Ono Pharmaceutical (4528 JP) is acquiring Deciphera Pharmaceuticals (DCPH US) for $25.60/share in cash through a tender offer. The total equity value of the acquisition is approximately $2.4B.
  • Ono is expected to reap the benefit of Deciphera acquisition earliest from FY27. In the short-run, the company’s major problem of loss of revenue will not be addressed.
  • Ono needs to stretch its balance sheet to fund Deciphera acquisition. The acquisition will be earnings dilutive for Ono. Pricey valuation of the deal is another deterrent.

Are the Lows “In” For This Pullback?; Market Dynamics Remain Bullish; Key Supports Holding

By Joe Jasper

  • While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be “in” for this pullback.
  • Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons
  • We view the latest pullback to 100-day MA on SPX as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market. Pullbacks to the 100-day provided ideal entry points throughout the 2021 bull market

Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692.HK) – Growth Would Remain Strong in 2024, but Ameile Is Facing Headwinds

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Hansoh’s performance in 2023 beat expectations, which was mainly driven by collaboration revenue. Revenue proportion of innovative drug business made breakthrough and has become the major performance driver.
  • Ameile’s future revenue growth is critical to Hansoh, but it faces increasing competition. EGFR/c-MET BsAb represents the future trend. If HS-20117 is successful, then the story of EGFR would continue.
  • In 2024, Hansoh is expected to receive an upfront payment of US$185 million from GSK. According to the management, revenue is expected to have double digit growth this year.

Novartis AG: Positive Expectations for Scemblix & 5 Other Major Developments

By Baptista Research

  • In Q1 2024, Novartis delivered robust growth, reflecting in a double-digit sales growth and core margin expansion.
  • Sales were up by 11% in constant currency, and core operating income was up by 22%.
  • The core margin reached 38.4%, inching steadily towards the set goal of over 40% by 2027.

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Daily Brief Financials: HDFC Bank, HDFC Limited, Bank Negara Indonesia Persero, Kemper Corp and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Looking Beyond Short-Term Headwinds
  • Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 1: We like Quality Name HDFC Bank, Baroda Is the Value Pick
  • Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) – The Bank Has Levers to Pull On
  • Kemper Corporation (KMPR) – Tuesday, Jan 30, 2024


HDFC Bank (HDFCB): Looking Beyond Short-Term Headwinds

By Ankit Agrawal, CFA

  • While HDFCB’s results have been somewhat lackluster over the past couple of quarters, this has been largely due to merger-related drags, tight liquidity and irrational competition in the marketplace.
  • From a medium-to-long-term perspective, the growth prospects for HDFCB remain tremendously attractive despite its large size, as evident from its consistent market share gains in deposits.
  • Q4FY24 earnings came largely in line with the expectation in terms of core earnings, except for one-off gain from an asset sale that was more than offset by floating provisions.

Indian Banks Screener FYE24, Part 1: We like Quality Name HDFC Bank, Baroda Is the Value Pick

By Victor Galliano

  • HDFC Bank results to FYE24 are improving and we retain it as a buy, with pre-provision returns improving slightly QoQ and best in peer group NPL ratio and coverage
  • Bank of Baroda is our core value Indian bank pick, for its undemanding valuations, healthy ROE and potential for NPL improvements
  • Bandhan bank is a potential contrarian pick for its value attributes; we are cautious on State Bank of India for its delinquency risks, low core capital ratio 

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) – The Bank Has Levers to Pull On

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) booked a solid set of 1Q2024 results driven by +9.6% YoY growth in loans, despite being hampered by higher cost of funds amid tighter liquidity.
  • Loan growth was driven by corporate lending, with corporate SOE lending showing the strongest growth and consumer loans. Funding was driven by CASA growth which limited the squeeze on NIMs. 
  • Bank Negara Indonesia booked strong growth in fee income and a reduction in provisions which helped to offset the margin squeeze. Valuations remain attractive on 1.2x FY2024E PBV.

Kemper Corporation (KMPR) – Tuesday, Jan 30, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Kemper’s sale under this new structure in the third quarter of 2023 could boost shareholder value
  • It would bring Kemper’s valuation closer to its peers in the industry
  • Kemper’s profitable underwriting and unique business model make it an appealing investment for long-term value investors

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


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Daily Brief Consumer: IDP Education, Endeavour Group /Australia, Super Hi International Holding, CJ Cheiljedang, Puig Brands , Astra International, L’Occitane, Tesla , Luckin Coffee, Netflix Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 – Historical Analysis and A Trade Basket
  • Endeavour Group Placement – While There Is an Overhang, Selldown Now Appears Well Flagged
  • Super Hi International US ADS – Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Really Need the Cash
  • Leading Candidates for the First Value-Up Disclosure
  • Listing of a Beauty Giant
  • Astra International (ASII IJ) – Striking a Balance with Finance
  • (Mostly) Asia M&A, April 2024: Austal, L’Occitane, Langham Hosp., Jastec, Mimasu, Best World, Isetan
  • Tesla Inc.: Growth As An AI Company And Its Future in Power Generation and Distributed Computing! – Major Drivers
  • [Luckin (LKNCY US, SELL, TP US$17) Rating Change]: Old Tricks Might Have Run Out of Its Use
  • Netflix Inc.: A Shift In Reporting Focus from Subscriptions to Revenue and Engagement – But What Lies Ahead? – Major Drivers


Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 – Historical Analysis and A Trade Basket

By Travis Lundy

  • I am not a tax advisor and I do not play one on TV but it is a subject of interest in Australia, as an AFR article from June 2022 shows.
  • The general gist: retail investors in Australia will take gains on stocks which run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses to offset.
  • Below I present a study using data from 2012-2023 and this year’s portfolio.

Endeavour Group Placement – While There Is an Overhang, Selldown Now Appears Well Flagged

By Clarence Chu

  • Woolworths Ltd (WOW AU) is looking to raise A$468m (US$305m) from selling its stake in Endeavour Group /Australia (EDV AU).
  • Endeavour Group was demerged from Woolworths in Jun 2021 and it runs the drinks and hospitality business of Woolworths.
  • In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Super Hi International US ADS – Has Been Doing Well but Doesn’t Really Need the Cash

By Sumeet Singh

  • Super Hi International Holding (9658 HK) aims to raise around US$100m in its US ADR IPO. MS and Huatai are on the deal.
  • Super Hi International (SHI) is a Chinese cuisine restaurant brand, operating Haidilao hot pot restaurants in the international market. 
  • In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and the listing impact.

Leading Candidates for the First Value-Up Disclosure

By Sanghyun Park

  • Of utmost importance in these guidelines will be the framework for Value-up disclosure. Local authorities aim to encourage proactive disclosure, starting with companies that are well-prepared.
  • Two companies are being closely watched as potential candidates for the first Value-up disclosure: CJ Cheiljedang (097950 KS) and Koh Young Technology (098460 KS).
  • The rationale for us to actively engage in alpha trading with these two names stems from the strong probability that they will emerge as cornerstone constituents of the Value-up index

Listing of a Beauty Giant

By Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

  • Puig Brands (PUIG SM) will start trading next Friday 3 May at 12:00. The placement price was €24.5/share at the top of the range (which was increased due to investors’ demand).
  • Puig, valued at €13,900 million, has placed 32% of its capital among qualified investors. The Puig family will retain over 90% of the voting rights through their Class A shares.
  • Puig will foreseeably enter the Ibex 35 after the ordinary meeting of the Ibex Technical Advisory Committee corresponding to the month of December.

Astra International (ASII IJ) – Striking a Balance with Finance

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Astra International (ASII IJ) just released 1Q2024 results, which reflected the softer auto and heavy equipment markets, although buoyed by better earnings for its finance arm, 
  • The company’s headline net profit was down -14% YoY but stripping out value adjustments was only down -5% YoY, with management optimistic over the longer term. 
  • Astra continues to mirror the Indonesian economy, with its latest investment in geothermal but its nickel businesses also growing. Valuations attractive on 6.6x FY2024E PER and a 7.2% dividend yield. 

(Mostly) Asia M&A, April 2024: Austal, L’Occitane, Langham Hosp., Jastec, Mimasu, Best World, Isetan

By David Blennerhassett

  • For the month of April 2024, 7 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn
  • The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in April was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~42%
  • This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.

Tesla Inc.: Growth As An AI Company And Its Future in Power Generation and Distributed Computing! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Tesla Inc.’s first-quarter earnings for 2024 offered a critical and insightful update on the electric vehicle manufacturer’s strategy and financial performance.
  • Tesla appears committed to its strategic focus on vehicle autonomy and digitisation, with CEO Elon Musk stating that the company should be viewed primarily as an AI (Artificial Intelligence) and robotics firm, underlining its commitment to Full Self-Driving (FSD) as a key future revenue stream.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

[Luckin (LKNCY US, SELL, TP US$17) Rating Change]: Old Tricks Might Have Run Out of Its Use

By Eric Wen

  • Despite Cotti’s difficulties, we are seeing intensified competition with well-funded competitors like Starbucks and KFC, joining the price war, which poses challenges to Luckin’s effort at raising prices.
  • We see Luckin at losing its coffee differentiation. We revised down average store sales growth to (5%)/(10%)YoY due to weak sales caused by the narrowing scope of the RMB9.9 promotion
  • We downgrade the stock rating from BUY to SELL and lower TP to US$17/ADS.

Netflix Inc.: A Shift In Reporting Focus from Subscriptions to Revenue and Engagement – But What Lies Ahead? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Netflix Inc.’s Q1 2024 earnings highlighted a number of impactful developments and strategic shifts that investors should consider.
  • The company’s management team made it clear that while they’ll no longer be reporting quarterly membership in ARM data starting in 2025, they will continue to provide updates on key metrics including revenue, OI, OI margin, net income, EPS, and free cash flow.
  • Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

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Daily Brief Australia: WorleyParsons Ltd, Pacific Smiles, Deep Yellow Ltd, Iron Ore and more

By | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Worley Placement – Largest Shareholder Selling at an Attractive Discount
  • Worley (WOR): Impact of Dar Group’s A$1.4bn Sale
  • Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU): A Brace Of Offers
  • ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Prior to the June Rebalance
  • Iron Ore and The China Property/Auto Stimulus Angle


Worley Placement – Largest Shareholder Selling at an Attractive Discount

By Clarence Chu

  • DAR Group is looking to raise A$1.5bn (US$983m) from selling the majority of its stake in WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU).
  • DAR had attempted to privatize Worley in late 2016. Failing that attempt, it has been adding to its stake over the years.
  • As the deal isn’t a cleanup, there will be an overhang post-deal, although its a relatively small one at just 4.5% of DAR’s remaining stake; locked up for 30 days

Worley (WOR): Impact of Dar Group’s A$1.4bn Sale

By Brian Freitas

  • Dar Al-Handasah has sold 19% of WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU) overnight at A$14.35/share, a 12% discount to the last close, to raise A$1.44bn (US$943m).
  • This reduces Dar’s stake in WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU) to 4.5% and will trigger upweights from index providers in the next few days.
  • The stake sale could also lead to a re-rating of the stock with a large blocking stake off the share register.

Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU): A Brace Of Offers

By David Blennerhassett

  • On the 18th December 2023, Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU), an operator of dental centers, announced and rejected a A$1.40/share non-binding proposal from Genesis Capital. Genesis subsequently increased its stake to 19.90%.
  • Genesis then bumped its NBIO to A$1.75/share on the 19 March and was granted due diligence on a non-exclusive basis. PSQ said it would support the revised terms if firmed. 
  • PSQ has now entered a Scheme with National Dental Care at A$1.90/share. The Offer also requires FIRB signing-off. But the proposal is a non-starter if Genesis rejects terms. 

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Prior to the June Rebalance

By Brian Freitas


Iron Ore and The China Property/Auto Stimulus Angle

By Sameer Taneja

  • The short term is suddenly looking bullish for iron ore, as rumors abound that tier-1 cities in China may remove home-buying restrictions in May, and auto stimulus measures were announced. 
  • Cities like Chengdu and Nanjing have already announced measures to make home-buying more attractive, such as removing purchase qualifications and pilot programs for old-for-new home housing. 
  • We like 62% Fe and see it trade up to its upper limit of 130 USD/ton (vs. current 117 USD/ton). On equities, we like Vale (VALE US) .

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Daily Brief Singapore: SHEIN, Mapletree Logistics Trust and more

By | Daily Briefs, Singapore

In today’s briefing:

  • SHEIN IPO: The Biggest IPO in 2024 in London?
  • LHT, Bumitama and JB Foods directors add to stakes


SHEIN IPO: The Biggest IPO in 2024 in London?

By Douglas Kim

  • Although Shein has yet to formally announce the listing destination, there is a growing anticipation that the listing venue could be London, rather than New York. 
  • It has been reported that the company has more than doubled its net profit to more than US$2 billion in 2023. 
  • The company is currently seeking a corporate value of nearly US$70 billion to US$90 billion in the Shein IPO which would be one of the biggest IPOs globally in 2024. 

LHT, Bumitama and JB Foods directors add to stakes

By Geoff Howie

  • LHT, Bumitama and JB Foods directors add to stakes City Developments again led the buyback consideration tally for the week, acquiring 2,439,900 shares at an average of S$5.93 per share.
  • Between Apr 19 and 23, LHT Holdings managing director Yap Mui Kee acquired 138,000 shares at an average price of S$1.186 per share.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: BFI Finance Indonesia, Siloam International Hospitals, Greentown China and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Slower Recovery in Process
  • Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ) – Raising Clinical Acuity
  • Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Greentown China, Medco Energi, Yankuang Energy Group


BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) – Slower Recovery in Process

By Angus Mackintosh

  • BFI Finance Indonesia (BFIN IJ) booked a solid set of 1Q2024 numbers with improved QoQ bookings, although with some concerns over challenging market conditions slowing the recovery.
  • The NPF ratio saw an ongoing improvement, although the cost of capital increased due to higher write-offs from last year’s bookings. Revenue declined due to a shift to lower-risk products. 
  • The outlook for BFIN in 2H2024 looks more positive, with the company shifting back to higher-return products and with lower expected credit costs. Valuations are appealing on 1.5x PBV.

Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ) – Raising Clinical Acuity

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Siloam International Hospitals booked a solid set of 1Q2024 results, with sustained QoQ improvements in revenues, EBITDA, and profits, stripping out a one-off write-down for hospitals under development. 
  • The company also saw strong improvements in operational metrics including inpatient and outpatient days, with especially strong performance in March due to a dengue epidemic, which also diluted patient intensity. 
  • Siloam International Hospitals saw continuing strength in more complex treatments, as it focused on raising clinical acuity in areas such as transplants and cardiology. Valuations remain attractive relative to peers.

Morning Views Asia: China Hongqiao, Greentown China, Medco Energi, Yankuang Energy Group

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief United States: Copper, Bitcoin, Cadence Design Sys, USD Coin, Procter & Gamble Co, Csx Corp, Schlumberger Ltd, Gold, Equifax Inc, Dr Horton Inc and more

By | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

  • Global Commodities: Takeaways from CESCO Copper Week — The only way out is up
  • Crypto Crisp: Stripe Returns to Crypto
  • Cadence Design Systems: A Tale Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Tools and Technology Proliferation! – Major Drivers
  • Security Token Journal: Private Debt Tokens
  • The Procter & Gamble Company: What Are Our Growth Expectations For P&G In A Highly Dynamic Market? – Major Drivers
  • CSX Corporation: Will Its Investments In Industrial Development Projects Yield Dividends? – Major Drivers
  • Schlumberger Limited: The ChampionX Acquisition
  • Wheat Breakout & Commodity Positioning Update
  • Equifax Inc.: Successful price/product strategy in the face of competition and customer price sensitivity! – Major Drivers
  • D.R. Horton: Effective Use of Land Resources & 4 Critical Growth Drivers! – Financial Forecasts


Global Commodities: Takeaways from CESCO Copper Week — The only way out is up

By At Any Rate

  • Copper market may be running ahead of a fundamental story, with extreme tightening in the copper concentrate market
  • Chinese demand has stepped back due to surging copper prices, but expected to acclimatize to higher price levels
  • Supply side challenges may take a couple more quarters to resolve, leading towards a tighter refined market in the future and potential supply shortfalls by 2030.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.


Crypto Crisp: Stripe Returns to Crypto

By Mads Eberhardt

  • It is no surprise that we have maintained a bullish stance in crypto over the past month, given the uptick in US dollar liquidity and the easing tensions between Israel and Iran.
  • Despite these factors, the market adopted a predominantly pessimistic view, highlighted by a negative futures funding rate.
  • This suggested to us that the market was misaligned with the outside environment.

Cadence Design Systems: A Tale Of Artificial Intelligence (AI) Tools and Technology Proliferation! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Cadence demonstrated a robust start to 2024 with a strong first quarter that exceeded its guidance range on all critical financial metrics.
  • Due to this exceptional performance, Cadence is increasing its financial outlook for the year.
  • Cadence finished the first quarter with an unexpected record backlog of $6 billion, placing the company in a strong position for the remainder of 2024 and beyond.

Security Token Journal: Private Debt Tokens

By Warut Promboon

  • We have been of the opinion that tokenized real world assets (RWAs), especially tokenized debt will represent a more understandable underlying value of tokens or cryptocurrencies than Bitcoin.
  • We are positive on tokens backed by risk-free assets such as US Treasuries or even investment-grade bonds as rates products for crypto funds and fractional investments for retail investors.
  • Private debt could be the next in line to enjoy mass adoption if the legal elements and credit protection have been put in place to gain trust of institutional investors.

The Procter & Gamble Company: What Are Our Growth Expectations For P&G In A Highly Dynamic Market? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Proctor & Gamble’s recent earnings reveals a company navigating a complex yet profitable environment.
  • The company announced strong sales and market share results, largely driven by the execution of its integrated strategy.
  • Impressively, the figures for the first three quarters of fiscal ’24 indicate a raise in its outlook for core earnings per share, keeping it within fiscal year guidance ranges for organic sales growth, cash productivity and cash return to shareholders.

CSX Corporation: Will Its Investments In Industrial Development Projects Yield Dividends? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CSX Corporation had a solid start to 2024, dealing with a number of challenges, including severe weather in January and the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse.
  • Despite these difficulties, the corporation managed to maintain a consistent momentum with a volume performance that kept moving forward.
  • The company’s management remains committed to mitigating the impact of these challenges for its customers.

Schlumberger Limited: The ChampionX Acquisition

By Baptista Research

  • During Schlumberger’s (SLB) first quarter 2024 earnings, the company’s evenue grew by 13% YoY, and EBITDA grew in the mid-teens, in line with SLB’s full-year financial ambitions.
  • International activity fuelled the growth, with revenue increases observed in 21 of the 25 international GeoUnits.
  • North America, however, showed a decrease in activity, resulting in a 6% YoY fall in revenue.

Wheat Breakout & Commodity Positioning Update

By The Commodity Report

  • Going forward, Energy could face some selling flows from CTAs according to the latest CTA flow update by UBSS

  • UBS ‘Contrarian’ trades: bullish Agriculturals and LME Lead, bearish Energy, Cocoa, Lean Hogs and Platinum

  • UBS ‘Go with momentum’ trades: bullish Zinc, Aluminium, bearish Cotton, Sugar and Palladium


Equifax Inc.: Successful price/product strategy in the face of competition and customer price sensitivity! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Equifax Inc.’s strong start in 2024 is evident from its Q1 reported revenue of $1.389 billion, up 7%, resulting from sustained strength in mortgage revenue and global non-mortgage businesses.
  • Equifax’s adjusted EBITDA margins of 29.1% were also slightly above expectations.
  • Moreover, their adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.50 a share exceeded the high end of their guidance.

D.R. Horton: Effective Use of Land Resources & 4 Critical Growth Drivers! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • D.R. Horton, the largest builder in the United States, presented its strong results from the second quarter of fiscal 2024, with its earnings per diluted share summing to $3.52.
  • The company managed to increase its consolidated pretax income to $1.5 billion, a 23% increase and basis for a reported 14% increase in revenues, amounting to $9.1 billion.
  • The pretax profit margin came in at 16.8%.

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Daily Brief China: L’Occitane, Prosus NV, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, Trip.com, JD.com Inc (ADR), Hang Seng Index, BYD, Mao Geping Cosmetics and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional VGO at HK$34
  • L’Occitane (973 HK): Geiger’s $34/Share Offer
  • NPN X PRX Discount Update Post Tencent Early Game Release News Flow
  • Fuyao Glass (3606 HK):  Global Champion Benefiting From Structural Uptrend
  • Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Continues, but Some Regional Destinations Lag
  • International Automobile Analysis
  • China Consumption Weekly (29 Apr 2024): Weird Phone Mkt, Encouraging Car and Travel Mkts
  • EQD | HSI Closing April Up Changes Our Forecast!
  • BYD (1211 HK): Low Growth in 1Q24, But March Sales and Homemade Batteries to Support a Strong Year
  • Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics – Potential Risks Behind High Gross Margins


L’Occitane (973 HK): Conditional VGO at HK$34

By Arun George

  • L’Occitane (973 HK) disclosed a conditional voluntary offer from Reinold Geiger at HK$34.00, a 15.3% premium to the last close and a 30.8% premium to the undisturbed price (5 February).
  • The minimum acceptance condition is that the offeror holds at least 90% of the shares held by disinterested shareholders, which enables the offeror to exercise compulsory acquisition rights.
  • Irrevocable and letters of support to accept represent 37.96% of disinterested shares. An attractive offer (representing an all-time high) should facilitate the offer being declared unconditional.

L’Occitane (973 HK): Geiger’s $34/Share Offer

By David Blennerhassett

  • After nearly six years of conjecture, rumour – plus the key shareholder (holding 72.63% of shares out) contemplating a takeover – we finally have an Offer for L’Occitane (973 HK).
  • The price? $34/share, a 30.77% premium to undisturbed, and a figure a shade below the  HK$35/share flagged by Reuters last August deemed “false and without basis“. The price is final. 
  • This takeover is a Voluntary General Offer. The key condition is securing 90% of disinterested shareholders holding 27.36%. 9.6% of that number have provided irrevocable undertakings or letters of support.  

NPN X PRX Discount Update Post Tencent Early Game Release News Flow

By Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

  • Last week Monday, Tencent confirmed the early release of Dungeon and Fighter Mobile, a highly anticipated mobile adaptation of the computer game developed by Nexon.
  • The game is expected to be released in China on the 21st of May following positive test results.
  • Tencent was the 11th best performing constituent in the HSTECH index for the week (out of 30), returning 14.7%. The index ended the week up 13.4%.

Fuyao Glass (3606 HK):  Global Champion Benefiting From Structural Uptrend

By Steve Zhou, CFA

  • Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) is the largest auto glass producer in the world, with an estimated 40% market share globally, and a dominant 65% market share in China.
  • The investment case for Fuyao include:  ASP increase from product mix upgrade; increasing sales volume due to more auto glasses needed per car; and improving margins.
  • The company has production bases in China with annual production volume of around 32.5 million units, and in US with annual production volume of around 5.5 million units.

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Outbound Recovery Continues, but Some Regional Destinations Lag

By Daniel Hellberg

  • Outbound continues to improve, March load factor matched pre-Covid level
  • Appears Chinese tourists are “spreading their wings”, travelling farther afield
  • Trip.com has been best YTD performer in the space; can airlines catch up?

International Automobile Analysis

By Douglas Busch

  • Spanning the globe for current best-in-breed auto players shows diverging action.
  • New pair suggestion: Long Tesla/Short Rivian. Bottom could be in on TSLA
  • Updated JD.com general status from last week’s China/Japan Note encouraging.

China Consumption Weekly (29 Apr 2024): Weird Phone Mkt, Encouraging Car and Travel Mkts

By Ming Lu

  • The top five smartphone producers’ market shares got closer in the first quarter.
  • The China Immigration Office announced that entry and exit of people increased by 305% YoY in 1Q24.
  • China Passenger Car Association expected that new energy vehicle sales volume will grow by 37% YoY in April.

EQD | HSI Closing April Up Changes Our Forecast!

By Nico Rosti

  • If the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) closes the month of April up (i.e. above 16541.42), our previous forecast will change (read the insight below for the detailed analysis).
  • The index performed an impressive bounce from the support levels (16050) we indicated in our previous insight, it is very overbought (WEEKLY model) and may close April up.
  • A continuation of the WEEKLY uptrend is in doubt, this week, while the MONTHLY situation is more complex.

BYD (1211 HK): Low Growth in 1Q24, But March Sales and Homemade Batteries to Support a Strong Year

By Ming Lu

  • BYD’s revenue growth is lower than the estimate in our preview note.
  • However, the recovery of sales volume in March suggests a strong year.
  • We believe BYD will win the price war due to its homemade batteries.

Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics – Potential Risks Behind High Gross Margins

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • MAO GEPING relies heavily on flagship brand MAOGEPING, with over-reliance risks on single brand.The strategy of focusing more on offline sales channels makes it appear less up-to-date with the times.
  • Different from most brands, the influence of MAO GEPING largely comes from its founder, Mr. Maogeping, who if reduces his holdings, could have a negative impact on the Company’s business/prospects.
  • Solely relying on marketing and promotion to drive performance growth is not a long-term solution.Lack of core technology and product innovation would limit MAO GEPING’s future development in fierce competition.

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Daily Brief India: Indegene Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange, Waaree Renewable Technologies, Premier Energies Limited, HI-Tech Pipes and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Indegene Limited Pre-IPO: Subscribe on Profitable Niche Business Model and Attractive Valuation
  • BSE – A Regulatory Accident?
  • Waaree Renewable Technologies Ltd- Forensic Analysis
  • Premier Energies Pre-IPO Tearsheet
  • Hi-Tech Pipes: A.G.E. Analysis


Indegene Limited Pre-IPO: Subscribe on Profitable Niche Business Model and Attractive Valuation

By Tina Banerjee

  • Indegene Limited (1864095D IN) has set IPO price band at INR430–452 per share. The IPO consists of fresh issue as well as OFS by existing shareholders.
  • Considering FY24 annualized post-IPO EPS of INR13.48, Indegene seeks a P/E valuation of 31.9–33.5x.
  • Considering niche business focus, proven execution capability, marquee clientele, long-standing client relationship, life science focus, and comprehensive offering, Indegene’s valuation seems quite attractive.

BSE – A Regulatory Accident?

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • SEBI has asked BSE to pay regulatory fees on options trading based on notional turnover instead of premium turnover
  • The impact of this would 10-20% on earnings in short term
  • The bigger question lies ahead what BSE will do to offset the impact and grow its market share in derivative trading

Waaree Renewable Technologies Ltd- Forensic Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • Waaree Renewable Technologies (WAREERTL IN) or (WRTL) is into Solar EPC and is a subsidiary of Waaree Energies Ltd. 
  • Revenues and order book have increased exponentially in the last few years.
  • While the business has certainly picked up, there are few forensic checks that need attention; most important being the auditor’s comment on the need to increase strength of internal controls.

Premier Energies Pre-IPO Tearsheet

By Clarence Chu

  • Premier Energies Limited (0377949D IN) is looking to raise US$300m in its upcoming India IPO. The bookrunners on the deal are JP Morgan, Kotak, and ICICI Securities.
  • Premier Energies (Premier) is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. It also executes EPC projects and provides follow-up O&M services.
  • As per Frost & Sullivan (F&S), the firm was the second largest domestic manufacturer in terms of annual installed capacity as of Mar 2024.

Hi-Tech Pipes: A.G.E. Analysis

By Nitin Mangal

  • HI-Tech Pipes (HITECH IN) is engaged in manufacturing of ERW Steel Round & Section Pipes, cold Rolled Strips, coils, and colour coated sheet, etc. and has distribution across India.
  • The company has grown impressively in the last 5-7 years and has seen improved balance sheet and working capital situation.
  • However, tapering return ratios, prolonged concern on cash conversion and erosion of margins are few talking points that should be taken into account.

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