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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): 12M High of $10.7bn Inflows and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): 12M High of $10.7bn Inflows
  • Screening for GEMs: May 2024
  • ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 26th): Paladin Energy, Beach Energy, Computershare, Macquarie
  • Northbound Flows (April): CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, China Tourism, Moutai, Nari Technology


Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): 12M High of $10.7bn Inflows

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
  • We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
  • We highlight flows for BOC, Tencent, China Mobile, ZTO Express, Anta Sports.

Screening for GEMs: May 2024

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
  • The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
  • Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Apr 26th): Paladin Energy, Beach Energy, Computershare, Macquarie

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Apr 26th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD19.1bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Paladin Energy, Beach Energy, Computershare, Macquarie, Brambles.

Northbound Flows (April): CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, China Tourism, Moutai, Nari Technology

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
  • Financials, Materials, Health Care led the inflows while Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services led the outflows (first chart below).
  • We highlight inflows into CATL, CMB, BOE, Haier Smart Home, and outflows from China Tourism, Moutai, Nari Technology, Focus Media and Seres

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Daily Brief ECM: Indegene Pre-IPO – RHP Updates – Client Base Continued to Grow and more

By | Daily Briefs, ECM

In today’s briefing:

  • Indegene Pre-IPO – RHP Updates – Client Base Continued to Grow, and Margins Have Begun Stabilizing
  • Lalatech Refiles for IPO: Further Improvement in Profitability


Indegene Pre-IPO – RHP Updates – Client Base Continued to Grow, and Margins Have Begun Stabilizing

By Clarence Chu

  • Indegene Limited (1864095D IN) is looking to raise about US$220m in its upcoming India IPO.
  • Indegene is a “digital-first” commercialisation firm with an exclusive focus on the global life sciences industry.
  • We looked at the firm’s past performance in an earlier note. In this note, we look at the RHP updates.

Lalatech Refiles for IPO: Further Improvement in Profitability

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK) , a technology driven logistics transportation platform has refiled for IPO in April and this insight focuses on data points from the latest filing.
  • The company has disclosed full-year 2023 results which shows significant improvement to the company’s financials, particularly Lalatech’s profitability.
  • Lalatech has continued to cutdown its operating costs, which has helped reach profits, and the company has managed to maintain growth despite spending cuts on incentives and promotions.

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Daily Brief Thematic (Sector/Industry): Junior Copper Miners: Many Juniors Are Lagging Copper Price YTD and more

By | Daily Briefs, Thematic (Sector/Industry)

In today’s briefing:

  • Junior Copper Miners: Many Juniors Are Lagging Copper Price YTD
  • Japan’s Semiconductor Export Controls Disrupt Global Supply Chain, Ministry Says
  • China’s Steel Industry Faces Sharp Drop in Profits Amid Rising Costs and Weak Demand
  • Portfolio Update: April 2024
  • The Hardman & Co Monthly: May 2024


Junior Copper Miners: Many Juniors Are Lagging Copper Price YTD

By Nicolas Van Broekhoven

  • Our insight 2024 High Conviction: Junior Copper Miners garnered significant interest in late 2023, we hereby provide another update on our favorite junior copper names.
  • Copper prices have started to tick up (+16% YTD) on squeezed global supply and BHP Group Ltd (BHP LN)  making an offer for Anglo American (AAL LN).
  • Entree Resources (ETG CN) has performed strongest +29% while Arras Minerals (ARK V EQUITY) has been a laggard at -12% YTD.

Japan’s Semiconductor Export Controls Disrupt Global Supply Chain, Ministry Says

By Caixin Global

  • The export controls on certain semiconductor products proposed by the Japanese government will severely undermine the stability of the global supply chain and affect trade between the two countries, China’s commerce ministry said on Monday.
  • Japan last week proposed to expand restrictions on exports of some technologies related to semiconductors or quantum computing, requiring companies to seek government approval for such exports.
  • The change will take effect as early as July, after a period of public consultation until May 25. Calling the measures “erroneous practices,” the ministry urged Japan to rescind them and pledged to take necessary measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises.

China’s Steel Industry Faces Sharp Drop in Profits Amid Rising Costs and Weak Demand

By Caixin Global

  • The profits of China’s iron and steel enterprises fell by nearly half year-on-year in the first quarter, and the average profit margin was a mere 0.58%, according to China Iron and Steel Association (CISA).
  • The steel industry’s biggest problem is low margin, CISA deputy secretary general Chen Yuqian said at a press conference Tuesday.
  • Steelmakers’ revenue fell faster than the drop in production costs, as iron ore prices remained high, while sales declined and steel prices saw a consistent drop.

Portfolio Update: April 2024

By Contrarian Cashflows

  • I recently came across a thought-provoking blog post by Andrew Walker on his YAVB discussing the possibility of a bubble forming in quality stocks.

  • Although Andrew acknowledged that the title might be seen as provocative, he raised valid concerns about the potential challenges of achieving satisfactory returns in the future by investing in quality-growth-at-a-reasonable-price stocks, given their lofty valuations.

  • As an example, he pointed to Costco, which is presently trading at a P/E ratio of 50 despite its long-term expected growth rate only slightly surpassing that of the US GDP.


The Hardman & Co Monthly: May 2024

By Hardman & Co

  • Feature article: Is silver the cheapest asset on the planet?
  • Silver is a precious metal, a monetary metal and an industrial metal with a surprisingly wide range of uses.
  • It’s not that well understood by investors and tends to get overshadowed by gold – but, perhaps, not for much longer.

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Most Read: IDP Education, Deep Yellow Ltd, Hanmi Semiconductor, Jeju Semiconductor, Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index, Austal Ltd, Bukalapak.com PT Tbk, Honasa Consumer and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 – Historical Analysis and A Trade Basket
  • ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Prior to the June Rebalance
  • KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 5-6 Changes Possible from Now to June
  • KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Changes Possible as Review Period Ends
  • NPS Confirms Reference Portfolio & Risky Assets Upweight: Implications for Value-Up Stocks
  • The Bigger Picture As Aussie Government “Approves’ Hanwha Ocean’s Austal Bid
  • Austal (ASB AU): Spurned Suitor, Hanwha Ocean, Gets a Vote of Confidence
  • Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – Eureka Moment with Better Visibility Ahead
  • Corporate Value Up Program Guidelines Proposed by the FSC – Disappointing & Needs Improvement
  • Honasa Consumer IPO Lock-Up Expiry – US$500m+ Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money


Tax-Loss Selling in Australia 2024 – Historical Analysis and A Trade Basket

By Travis Lundy

  • I am not a tax advisor and I do not play one on TV but it is a subject of interest in Australia, as an AFR article from June 2022 shows.
  • The general gist: retail investors in Australia will take gains on stocks which run up in price, or get taken over, then look for losses to offset.
  • Below I present a study using data from 2012-2023 and this year’s portfolio.

ASX200 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Changes Prior to the June Rebalance

By Brian Freitas


KOSPI200 Index Rebalance Preview: 5-6 Changes Possible from Now to June

By Brian Freitas


KOSDAQ150 Index Rebalance Preview: 15 Changes Possible as Review Period Ends

By Brian Freitas

  • With the review period complete, there could be up to 15 changes for the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) at the June rebalance.
  • Even with 15 changes, there is some sector balance among the potential adds and deletes with big churn in the Information Technology sector.
  • The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes and the KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) since the start of the review period but performance has flattened over the last month.

NPS Confirms Reference Portfolio & Risky Assets Upweight: Implications for Value-Up Stocks

By Sanghyun Park

  • Today, NPS made the final decision to introduce a reference portfolio. The critical point is the increase in risky assets from 56% to 65%, also decided at today’s meeting.
  • Initially, overseas equity was prioritized, but recent forecasts suggest significant potential in increasing local equity, aligning with the value-up policy.
  • Monitoring NPS’s execution plan, including allocation and timing by asset class, is vital to gauge inflow size, especially for Value-up beneficiaries.

The Bigger Picture As Aussie Government “Approves’ Hanwha Ocean’s Austal Bid

By David Blennerhassett

  • Recently, I surmised FIRB would approve Sociedad Quimica y Minera (SQM US)/Hancock’s bid for Azure (AZS AU); but ding Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)s Austal (ASB AU) tilt. I’m batting 50%. 
  • Whereas FIRB gave the green light for Azure this week; reportedly (no official ASX announcement as yet), the Aussie government is “not concerned” with Hanwha’s acquisition. Austal gained 3% yesterday.
  • Even Austal didn’t high hopes of securing Aussie approval. Presumably the US government is similarly onboard. This development also signals an expanding AUKUS security pact. 

Austal (ASB AU): Spurned Suitor, Hanwha Ocean, Gets a Vote of Confidence

By Arun George

  • On 2 April, Austal Ltd (ASB AU) rejected a non-binding proposal from Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) at A$2.825 due to concerns about obtaining Australian and US regulatory approvals. 
  • The Board’s claims are on shaky grounds. On 1 May, the AFR reported that Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles had no concerns with Hanwha’s privatisation bid. 
  • The Board’s rejection is a clumsy attempt to negotiate better terms, such as a bump, ticking fees, or significant break fees. At the last close, the gross spread was 21.8%. 

Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – Eureka Moment with Better Visibility Ahead

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bukalapak released its 1Q2024 results this week with some palpable relief as it booked its first adjusted EBITDA but underlying revenue growth remains strong, especially for its O2O business. 
  • The company saw take rates improve for both its Mitra O2O business and its marketplace businesses, helping to drive revenue growth. Costs were also reduced allowing for positive contribution margins. 
  • Bukalapak is expected to see sustainable profitability accompanied by revenue growth, with the marketplace recovering with improving product mix. BUKA’S “orphan” cash pile remains an issue but valuations are attractive.

Corporate Value Up Program Guidelines Proposed by the FSC – Disappointing & Needs Improvement

By Douglas Kim

  • Some of the Corporate Value Up program’s initial guidelines proposed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) were announced today.
  • Overall, the initial guidelines were disappointing mainly because they lacked concrete figures with regards to tax incentives for companies that make significant improvements to their corporate governance.
  • More concrete measures announced today included recommendations for overlapping parent company listing (split listing) and disclosure recommendations for the majority shareholder’s profit transfer to an unlisted private company (tunneling).

Honasa Consumer IPO Lock-Up Expiry – US$500m+ Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

By Sumeet Singh

  • Honasa Consumer (HONASA IN) raised about US$200m in its India IPO. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
  • HC’s product portfolio includes products in the baby care, face care, body care, hair care, color cosmetics and fragrances segments.
  • In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

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Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – Eureka Moment with Better Visibility Ahead and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – Eureka Moment with Better Visibility Ahead
  • Earnings Playbook | Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) | Troubling Rural B2C Business
  • BABA’s Babies: They’re All Grown Now! Weibo the Twitter of China
  • Key Insights from Qualcomm’s Latest Data; Mediatek Taking Market Share?
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-May-2024): Global changes affect Taiwan-China relations; business strategies evolve.
  • Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) – We like the Focus on Oncology but Look for a Better Entry Point
  • Lam Research Corporation: NAND Market Recovery & Critical Opportunities That Lie Ahead! – Major Drivers
  • Meta Platforms: How Will The Adoption of AI Tools and Strategic Bets Change The Game? – Major Drivers
  • Enphase Energy: Are Its Solar-Plus-Storage Products A Critical Growth Catalyst? – Major Drivers
  • Lasertec (6920 JP): Orders Up, Guidance Down


Bukalapak (BUKA IJ) – Eureka Moment with Better Visibility Ahead

By Angus Mackintosh

  • Bukalapak released its 1Q2024 results this week with some palpable relief as it booked its first adjusted EBITDA but underlying revenue growth remains strong, especially for its O2O business. 
  • The company saw take rates improve for both its Mitra O2O business and its marketplace businesses, helping to drive revenue growth. Costs were also reduced allowing for positive contribution margins. 
  • Bukalapak is expected to see sustainable profitability accompanied by revenue growth, with the marketplace recovering with improving product mix. BUKA’S “orphan” cash pile remains an issue but valuations are attractive.

Earnings Playbook | Bajaj Finance Ltd (BAF IN) | Troubling Rural B2C Business

By Pranav Bhavsar


BABA’s Babies: They’re All Grown Now! Weibo the Twitter of China

By David Mudd

  • Weibo (9898 HK) is an inexpensive profitable large social media company in China
  • Weibo generates a large cash flow which it uses to pay a 9% dividend yield
  • Weibo has synergies with Alibaba’s core e-commerce business and fits well within its other media company ecosystem

Key Insights from Qualcomm’s Latest Data; Mediatek Taking Market Share?

By Vincent Fernando, CFA

  • Qualcomm’s latest earnings came in at the high end of guidance with automotive revenue surging and mobile steady. We analyze QCOM results’ key implications for Mediatek.
  • Qualcomm’s 2024E global handset market volume guidance remained unchanged vs. last quarter; however we believe Mediatek may have taken some market share in CY1Q24.
  • Qualcomm confirmed Mediatek’s view regarding high-end phone demand strength right now, with AI capabilities the likely driver. Combining QCOM + Mediatek color suggests an AI-driven handset upgrade cycle ahead.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (02-May-2024): Global changes affect Taiwan-China relations; business strategies evolve.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Geopolitical shifts are impacting Taiwanese businesses in China, leading to strategic adjustments and shifts in orders to specialty IC foundries.
  • CHPT anticipates a surge in probe card orders in the second half of 2024, while SK Hynix expects high demand for HBM in 2025 with production nearly sold out.
  • Meredot’s technology allows for micromobility vehicles and robots to charge wirelessly simultaneously, while Taiwan’s Compal will have its first foreign CEO in the electronics industry.

Daiichi Sankyo (4568 JP) – We like the Focus on Oncology but Look for a Better Entry Point

By Avien Pillay

  • Cancer is the most common cause of death in Japan, and at 282.9 cases per 100 000 people, it ranks at the upper end of the global recorded range.
  • In 2020, Daiichi Sankyo embarked on transforming to a leading oncology specialist in terms of new drug development.
  • Daiichi Sankyo’s ADC pipeline comprises of six higher level drugs with a number of indications (sub-categories). This pipeline is part of a universe of 2499 oncology drugs in development.

Lam Research Corporation: NAND Market Recovery & Critical Opportunities That Lie Ahead! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Lam Research Corporation delivered a strong start to 2024, with the Q1 earnings surpassing the midpoint of their guidance.
  • Although the business environment prospers as predicted, the company acknowledges ongoing risks and uncertainties reflected in SEC public filings.
  • The quarter witnessed stability in Lam’s overcall 2024 revenue profile, with spending mainly driven by lithography shipments into China and enduring investment in domestic China.

Meta Platforms: How Will The Adoption of AI Tools and Strategic Bets Change The Game? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Meta Platforms Inc.’s Q1 shows strong headway with an increase in both product momentum and business performance reaching an estimated 3.2 billion active users per day, showcasing healthy growth particularly in the US market.
  • The performance of the associated messaging app, WhatsApp, has been highlighted, reporting a steady increase in daily active users and message sends in the US. Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company’s price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.
  • In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

Enphase Energy: Are Its Solar-Plus-Storage Products A Critical Growth Catalyst? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Enphase Energy, a leading provider of energy management solutions, reported its first quarter 2024 financial results.
  • For the quarter ending March 31, 2024, the company reported a total revenue of $263.3 million, a slight decrease compared with the previous quarter.
  • The company also managed to ship approximately 1.4 million microinverters and 75.5 megawatt hours of batteries during this period, leading to a free cash flow of $41.8 million.

Lasertec (6920 JP): Orders Up, Guidance Down

By Scott Foster

  • The share price has bounced back on strong 3Q orders and long-term optimism, but weak 4Q guidance calls the growth trajectory into question.
  • Guidance, which has sales dropping to about half what they were a year earlier, is based on the expected timing of customer acceptance of delivered equipment. It could be conservative.
  • At 75X EPS guidance for FY Jun-24, a rate of growth not visible in current trends has already been discounted. Current orders should translate into sales in 2026.

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Daily Brief Crypto: Crypto Moves #26 – What Goes Up Must Come Down and more

By | Crypto, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Crypto Moves #26 – What Goes Up Must Come Down


Crypto Moves #26 – What Goes Up Must Come Down

By Mads Eberhardt

  • The crypto market has experienced a second-to-none year so far.
  • Now, as summer begins, it may be a good time to unwind with a Gin & Tonic and enjoy the sunshine, given that the crypto market is unlikely to offer much excitement in the near future.
  • According to the latest issue of ‘Crypto Crisp‘ published on Monday, we have adopted a bearish outlook for the short-term prospects of the crypto market.

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Daily Brief Event-Driven: NPS Confirms Reference Portfolio & Risky Assets Upweight: Implications for Value-Up Stocks and more

By | Daily Briefs, Event-Driven

In today’s briefing:

  • NPS Confirms Reference Portfolio & Risky Assets Upweight: Implications for Value-Up Stocks
  • Austal (ASB AU): Spurned Suitor, Hanwha Ocean, Gets a Vote of Confidence
  • Honasa Consumer IPO Lock-Up Expiry – US$500m+ Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money
  • ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Sigma Healthcare (SIG) Replaces Boral (BLD)
  • Jusung Engineering: Announces Equity Spin Off + Physical Division Split


NPS Confirms Reference Portfolio & Risky Assets Upweight: Implications for Value-Up Stocks

By Sanghyun Park

  • Today, NPS made the final decision to introduce a reference portfolio. The critical point is the increase in risky assets from 56% to 65%, also decided at today’s meeting.
  • Initially, overseas equity was prioritized, but recent forecasts suggest significant potential in increasing local equity, aligning with the value-up policy.
  • Monitoring NPS’s execution plan, including allocation and timing by asset class, is vital to gauge inflow size, especially for Value-up beneficiaries.

Austal (ASB AU): Spurned Suitor, Hanwha Ocean, Gets a Vote of Confidence

By Arun George

  • On 2 April, Austal Ltd (ASB AU) rejected a non-binding proposal from Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) at A$2.825 due to concerns about obtaining Australian and US regulatory approvals. 
  • The Board’s claims are on shaky grounds. On 1 May, the AFR reported that Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles had no concerns with Hanwha’s privatisation bid. 
  • The Board’s rejection is a clumsy attempt to negotiate better terms, such as a bump, ticking fees, or significant break fees. At the last close, the gross spread was 21.8%. 

Honasa Consumer IPO Lock-Up Expiry – US$500m+ Lockup Expiry with Everyone Well in the Money

By Sumeet Singh

  • Honasa Consumer (HONASA IN) raised about US$200m in its India IPO. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
  • HC’s product portfolio includes products in the baby care, face care, body care, hair care, color cosmetics and fragrances segments.
  • In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

ASX200 Index Adhoc Rebalance: Sigma Healthcare (SIG) Replaces Boral (BLD)

By Brian Freitas


Jusung Engineering: Announces Equity Spin Off + Physical Division Split

By Douglas Kim

  • On 2 May, Jusung Engineering (036930 KS) announced an equity spin-off as well as a physical division split.
  • We are negative on this combination of equity spin-off and physical division split of Jusung Engineering. 
  • After the two units are listed on 6 December 2024, it is likely that the semiconductor unit (Jusung Engineering Co) will rise while Jusung Holdings Co is likely to decline.

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Daily Brief Macro: Corporate Value Up Program Guidelines Proposed by the FSC – Disappointing & Needs Improvement and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • Corporate Value Up Program Guidelines Proposed by the FSC – Disappointing & Needs Improvement
  • NPS Changes Its Core Asset Allocation Method – First Time in 18 Years
  • Powell so Wants to Cut Rates!
  • 5 Things We Watch Ahead of the FOMC Meeting
  • Fed Snap (May 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways
  • China Ups the Ante with Relaxation of Property Curbs
  • Strong US Payroll Will Completely Crush Rate Cut Hopes
  • Market Thinking May 2024
  • Macro Daily – MX 1Q-24 GDP
  • Hedge in May and Go Away


Corporate Value Up Program Guidelines Proposed by the FSC – Disappointing & Needs Improvement

By Douglas Kim

  • Some of the Corporate Value Up program’s initial guidelines proposed by the Financial Services Commission (FSC) were announced today.
  • Overall, the initial guidelines were disappointing mainly because they lacked concrete figures with regards to tax incentives for companies that make significant improvements to their corporate governance.
  • More concrete measures announced today included recommendations for overlapping parent company listing (split listing) and disclosure recommendations for the majority shareholder’s profit transfer to an unlisted private company (tunneling).

NPS Changes Its Core Asset Allocation Method – First Time in 18 Years

By Douglas Kim

  • NPS announced today that it will change its core asset allocation method, which aims to increase its purchase of risky assets including stocks and alternative assets. 
  • Under the new system, the proportion of risky assets will increase to 65% of the NPS’ entire fund assets and the remaining 35% will be allocated to the safe assets.
  • There is an increasing probability that a portion of the 24.6 trillion won (2.3% of AUM) could get allocated to risky assets including domestic equities. 

Powell so Wants to Cut Rates!

By Jeroen Blokland

  • Powell had to give a hawkish message and take the signal from three disappointing CPI reports but did so with a ‘dovish’ flavor.
  • The Federal Reserve remains well-positioned to cut rates several times this year, especially now that economic momentum is turning.
  • The question is if Powell’s statement reliefs markets from the stagflationary data that have come in recently

5 Things We Watch Ahead of the FOMC Meeting

By Andreas Steno

  • Today’s ‘5 Things We Watch’ will center around tonight’s FOMC meeting, which will not be any surprise to markets looking at the interest rate decision itself, but the Fed is in a difficult position in regards to addressing the path for Fed Funds in 2024, and the rhetoric later today will be key.
  • Powell promised 3 cuts in December, but market pricing is increasingly leaning towards no action from the Fed, likely forcing him to pivot from his pivot.
  • With the Fed’s position as the big brother in central bank space, the choice of rhetoric will not be an easy task, as the ECB / BoE is hopefully waiting for the Fed to lead the cutting cycle to avoid balancing FX risks on top of inflation, and hawkish rhetoric from the Fed – although probably required to get financial conditions back under control again – could put fuel to the fire in Asian FX.

Fed Snap (May 1 Meeting): Current & Future Takeaways

By Thomas Lam

  • Financial markets zigzagged mostly as a result of Chair Powell, to a lesser extent the post-meeting statement 
  • The current policy debate is centered on the duration of the prevailing pause and the timing of the eventual rate cut 
  • The latest market pricing for dialing back policy over the next three meetings is less than or roughly a coin-flip 

China Ups the Ante with Relaxation of Property Curbs

By Rikki Malik

  • Property restrictions removed in major cities, continuing the gradual process from the last 6-8 months
  • A BIG signal to the market and the public with the relaxation of curbs in Beijing 
  • China’s factory output continues expansion and travel data positive for consumption

Strong US Payroll Will Completely Crush Rate Cut Hopes

By Suhas Reddy

  • Chair Powell decided to maintain Fed fund rates at 5.25%-5.5% sticking to the much expected higher for longer strategy given the reverse direction of travel on rates.
  • Forget rate cuts. Those hopes are diminishing. US prediction markets are pricing a 40% chance of zero rate cuts this year.
  • Nonfarm Payroll numbers tomorrow will hint at the path of interest rate travel for the rest of the year. Continued strength will melt hopes of rate cuts further.

Market Thinking May 2024

By Mark Tinker

  • Every year, for as long as we can remember, we have written a weekly or a monthly note with some variation of the ‘Sell in May’ trope, so we see no reason to break the habit this year.
  • The chart (courtesy of Nick Glydon and team at Redburn Atlantic) shows the steady uptrend in searches for the expression every April over the last 14 years and while obviously there is a ‘usage factor’, it is certainly on a lot of traders’ minds at the moment.
  • The historic rationale for the expression comes from the leveraged trading end of the spectrum and tended to reflect the fall in speculative activity in the commodities markets over the summer months and while the speculators have moved heavily into other markets since those days, the seasonal drop off in activity as the head traders head to the beach remains a factor – the juniors tend to flatten the books and keep things ticking over.

Macro Daily – MX 1Q-24 GDP

By Actinver

  • In 1Q-24, the economy accumulated ten quarters of expansion, growing 0.2% QoQ. This dynamism was supported by the growth of commercial and service activities.
  • According to the National Statistics Institute, in the first quarter of the year, agricultural activities contracted -1.1% QoQ while industrial activities did it by -0.4% QoQ. These setbacks were more than offset by the 0.7% QoQ expansion in commercial and services activities.
  • The latter have been supported by a mix of a strong labor market, record remittances to the country, and the increase in the amount allocated to social programs.

Hedge in May and Go Away

By Phil Rush

  • A sharp rise in market rates drove down equity prices in April. The correlated move was consistent with our suggestion before Easter to hedge the downside with equity options.
  • We now believe the front end is broadly flat enough, so we have turned neutral on rates relative to the market despite being more hawkish than the consensus on the BoE.
  • The potential for market expectations to overshoot again, extending the bearish trends, means hedging with options may still appeal over selling or hoping for recovery.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Austal Ltd, Lasertec Corp, Enphase Energy, Waste Management, Idex Corp, Lockheed Martin, United Parcel Service Cl B, Boeing Co, Norfolk Southern, Raytheon Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Austal (ASB AU): Spurned Suitor, Hanwha Ocean, Gets a Vote of Confidence
  • Lasertec (6920 JP): Orders Up, Guidance Down
  • Enphase Energy: Are Its Solar-Plus-Storage Products A Critical Growth Catalyst? – Major Drivers
  • Waste Management Inc.: A Competitive Edge Through Exclusive Landfill Assets & 5 Key Growth Drivers
  • IDEX Corporation: Increasing End Market Demand Driving Organic Growth! – Major Drivers
  • Lockheed Martin Corporation: Will Its Recent Acquisition & Its Investments in Next-gen Interceptor Bear Fruit? – Major Drivers
  • United Parcel Service (UPS): How Is The Management Playing The Macro Cycle? – Major Drivers
  • The Boeing Company: Will The Strategic Acquisition of Spirit Pay Off? – Major Drivers
  • Norfolk Southern Corporation: How Is Enhanced Operational Efficiency & Productivity Boost Impacting Their Bottom-Line? – Major Drivers
  • RTX Corporation: These Are The 6 Pivotal Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2024 & Beyond! – Financial Forecasts


Austal (ASB AU): Spurned Suitor, Hanwha Ocean, Gets a Vote of Confidence

By Arun George

  • On 2 April, Austal Ltd (ASB AU) rejected a non-binding proposal from Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) at A$2.825 due to concerns about obtaining Australian and US regulatory approvals. 
  • The Board’s claims are on shaky grounds. On 1 May, the AFR reported that Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles had no concerns with Hanwha’s privatisation bid. 
  • The Board’s rejection is a clumsy attempt to negotiate better terms, such as a bump, ticking fees, or significant break fees. At the last close, the gross spread was 21.8%. 

Lasertec (6920 JP): Orders Up, Guidance Down

By Scott Foster

  • The share price has bounced back on strong 3Q orders and long-term optimism, but weak 4Q guidance calls the growth trajectory into question.
  • Guidance, which has sales dropping to about half what they were a year earlier, is based on the expected timing of customer acceptance of delivered equipment. It could be conservative.
  • At 75X EPS guidance for FY Jun-24, a rate of growth not visible in current trends has already been discounted. Current orders should translate into sales in 2026.

Enphase Energy: Are Its Solar-Plus-Storage Products A Critical Growth Catalyst? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Enphase Energy, a leading provider of energy management solutions, reported its first quarter 2024 financial results.
  • For the quarter ending March 31, 2024, the company reported a total revenue of $263.3 million, a slight decrease compared with the previous quarter.
  • The company also managed to ship approximately 1.4 million microinverters and 75.5 megawatt hours of batteries during this period, leading to a free cash flow of $41.8 million.

Waste Management Inc.: A Competitive Edge Through Exclusive Landfill Assets & 5 Key Growth Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Waste Management, Inc. has successfully delivered a strong end to 2023, with a 15% increase in fourth quarter operating EBITDA. This has resulted in full year operating EBITDA exceeding the company’s most recent guidance range by Waste Management Inc. (WM) witnessed robust financial performance for Q1 2024, underscored by outstanding operational performance in the collection and disposal business.
  • Operating EBITDA witnessed a growth of 15% for this quarter, with margins expanding by 240 basis points.
  • This was propelled primarily by significant momentum in cost-effective efforts and disciplined execution of pricing programs.

IDEX Corporation: Increasing End Market Demand Driving Organic Growth! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • IDEX Corporation’s Q1 2024 earnings highlighted the company’s continued engagement in the global market, notable achievements during the quarter, and financial results, which were understandably mixed due to various factors.
  • Despite challenging comparatives, the company’s Fluid & Metering Technologies and Fire & Safety/Diversified Products businesses recorded strong results, demonstrating its core execution capabilities.
  • This indicates the company’s ability to adapt and reaffirms its positioning as a invested-interest even during turbulent market conditions.

Lockheed Martin Corporation: Will Its Recent Acquisition & Its Investments in Next-gen Interceptor Bear Fruit? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In their First Quarter 2024 Earnings Results Lockheed Martin gave an outline of their strong financial performance and offered an insight into some key initiatives that are currently in progress.
  • Their results reflect a robust growth in revenue across the company, and a stable backlog amounting to $159 billion, an indication of the alignment between the firm’s advanced technology solutions and the missions and priorities of their customers.
  • The highlights of the FY ’24 defense budget reflect well on Lockheed Martin with robust funding earmarked for munitions multiyear procurement, ongoing investments into hypersonics and classified activities, and consistent support for long term initiatives such as Black Hawk, CH-53K heavy lift helicopter, the fleet ballistic missile, C-130, and F-35.

United Parcel Service (UPS): How Is The Management Playing The Macro Cycle? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) reported consolidated revenue of $21.7 billion, marking a 5.3% decline YoY. The operating profit came in at $1.7 billion, down by 31.5% in comparison to the previous year, largely as a result of higher labor costs associated with the first year of the Teamsters contract.
  • The consolidated operating margin was at 8%.
  • A notable development in the quarter is UPS’s deal with the United States Postal Service, where it plans to become the primary air cargo provider.

The Boeing Company: Will The Strategic Acquisition of Spirit Pay Off? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Boeing Company’s Q1 2024 marked an important moment for investors, as management focused primarily on the actions taken post the Alaska Airlines accident in January.
  • Boeing CEO, Dave Calhoun, emphatically underscored the company’s commitment to quality and safety measures.
  • The company has improved its production protocols and gone beyond compliance with the FAA directives, working towards an Embedded Quality Action Plan.

Norfolk Southern Corporation: How Is Enhanced Operational Efficiency & Productivity Boost Impacting Their Bottom-Line? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Norfolk Southern Corporation deemed its first quarter of 2024 as one reflecting strategic growth and prudent operational strategies.
  • The company followed a balanced strategy to deliver top-tier earnings with an industry competitive margin focusing on customer service, productivity, and growth with strong safety measures.
  • The company’s president and CEO, Alan Shaw, mentioned that in 2023, safety and service were prioritized to protect the company’s franchise and shareholders, thereby operating one of the safest networks in North America.

RTX Corporation: These Are The 6 Pivotal Factors Impacting Its Performance In 2024 & Beyond! – Financial Forecasts

By Baptista Research

  • Raytheon Technologies Corporation (RTX) started off the year strongly with emphasis on attaining a strong foundation for the future.
  • The company is making headway in transforming its three business units: Pratt & Whitney, Collins Aerospace, and Raytheon into industry leaders that can withstand increasing sales and operating profit growth.
  • The company’s backlog has reached a record high of over $200 billion which is positive evidence of its market strength.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Freeport Mcmoran, Linde India Ltd, Pan American Silver, Orezone Gold , ADX Energy Ltd, Steel Dynamics, Baker Hughes, Halliburton Co and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Freeport-McMoRan Inc.: Growth Through Large-Scale Mining Operations in Large and High-Grade Copper and Gold Mining Districts! – Major Drivers
  • Promoter Influence in RPTs: Linde India’s Quest for Fair Business Allocations
  • Pan American Silver – La Arena divestment
  • Orezone Gold Corp – Mining Monthly: April Edition
  • ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Important step to unlock Sicily
  • Steel Dynamics: How Long Will The Stability in Demand Across Operating Platforms Last? – Major Drivers
  • Baker Hughes Company: The 6 Fundamental Elements Driving Its Performance In 2024 & Beyond! – Major Drivers
  • Halliburton Company: A Tale Of Technological Innovation & A New Acquisition! – Major Drivers


Freeport-McMoRan Inc.: Growth Through Large-Scale Mining Operations in Large and High-Grade Copper and Gold Mining Districts! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • In its first quarter earnings, Freeport-McMoRan reported successful results in executing its business strategies.
  • The incoming CEO, Kathleen Quirk, outlined the company’s strategic focus on copper, citing the growing global demand for the metal in numerous sectors, particularly in electrification.
  • The long-term trends point to tight market conditions due to constrained existing supplies, limited major new projects, and extended deadlines for supply development.

Promoter Influence in RPTs: Linde India’s Quest for Fair Business Allocations

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • Linde India entered into related party transaction without shareholders approval.
  • Further company also allocated future businesses and existing business of Linde India to its sister concern Praxair
  • Whether existing RPTs material in nature and need shareholder approval?  Whether the allocation of future and existing business from a listed entity to another promoter company amount to a RPT?

Pan American Silver – La Arena divestment

By Edison Investment Research

Pan American Silver (PAAS) has announced a sale of the La Arena and La Arena II projects to Zijin Mining for US$245m in cash, US$50m in a contingent payment and a 1.5% NSR gold royalty. La Arena II is a copper and gold sulphide deposit that sits underneath the currently producing La Arena gold project. We view the transaction as positive for PAAS, given La Arena’s very short mine life, significant capex required to bring La Arena II into production and the fact that copper is not PAAS’s core commodity.


Orezone Gold Corp – Mining Monthly: April Edition

By Atrium Research

  • Following a big breakout in March, gold pressed on hitting new all-time highs, however, lost steam and fell towards the end of the month up just 2% in April.
  • Silver outperformed gold, being up 5% on the month.
  • Copper held its big gains from early in the month, up 13% to $4.6/lb.

ADX Energy (ASX: ADX): Important step to unlock Sicily

By Auctus Advisors

  • ADX has raised A$13.5 mm of new equity priced at A$0.105 per share.
  • One free-attaching option will be issued for evert two placement shares with an exercise price of A$0.15 per share and an expiry date of 08/05/2026.
  • The proceeds from the raise will fund (1) the production testing of the 450 m gas column encountered at the Welchau exploration well (the well might also be deepened to assess the exploration potential below the current total depth of the well), (2) the residual drilling cost (net of the carry provided by MND) of a gas exploration well on the ADX-AT-I licence, (3) the residual cost (net of the carry provided by MND) of the drilling and tie-in the Anshof-2A sidetrack and (4) upgrades to the gas processing facilities at ADX’s Vienna Basin fields.

Steel Dynamics: How Long Will The Stability in Demand Across Operating Platforms Last? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The first quarter 2024 results for Steel Dynamics Inc., display the strong performance of the company when considering their financial and operational undertakings.
  • Reaching near-record quarterly steel shipments of 3.3 million tons, Steel Dynamics demonstrated impressive control over its operations.
  • Four new value-added flat rolled steel coating lines were introduced that contribute to a product diversification that included 1.1 million tons of higher-margin products.

Baker Hughes Company: The 6 Fundamental Elements Driving Its Performance In 2024 & Beyond! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Baker Hughes Company’s recent results offers mixed signals for investors, delivering a blend of positive and negative takeaways.
  • The solid first-quarter results highlight the company’s resilience despite external volatility, with the order book and margin development indicating a path towards the achievement of full-year guidance.
  • A significant 11% year-on-year increase in the quarterly dividend suggests a positive outlook for investors, aligning with the company’s commitment to enhance shareholder returns.

Halliburton Company: A Tale Of Technological Innovation & A New Acquisition! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Halliburton, one of the largest oilfield services companies globally, recently held its first-quarter 2024 conference call that demonstrated robust performance.
  • The company delivered a total revenue of $5.8 billion and an operating margin of 17%.
  • Both divisions showcased improvement in margin year-over-year.

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