Daily Briefs

When this deal was announced, it was light. But the timing, JSR influence, large-ish float, ensured FUD would make this trade wide. It traded wider.
15wks ago, Shinko had much-underperformed peer Ibiden, meaning downside gap risk from undisturbed was negative as spreads were wide. I reco’d a buy. Then 8wks ago, recommended taking profits.
Shinko had outperformed Ibiden, gross spreads had narrowed 5+% on JSR approval. Spreads are now 3.6% wider than at narrowest, but gap risk has widened as Shinko outperforms, Ibiden.

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30-Apr/3-May 2024); Banks/SOEs Bought, Meituan, Tencent, Mobile Sold

A-Shares only two days of the week and were up small Monday and Tuesday. H-shares took a breather Wednesday after trailing A-shares, then rallied hard on Thursday and Friday.
Net SOUTHBOUND buying was +HK6.0bn. Net buys every day and now 22 days straight, but buying still appears foreign-led price-taking action.
The only big news this week in China/HK was probably the Politburo’s new stance of trying to do more for the mainland property market, concentrating on unsold homes.

Hollysys (HOLI US): Further Thoughts on the Widening Spread

By Arun George

I have received several questions from readers on Ascendent’s binding proposal for Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) in the context of the current gross spread of 12.1%.
The questions primarily concerned the Capital Forum article, NSR approvals, timelines, auditor resignation and deal break risks.
Most of the questions concerned regulatory approval risk. The delay in closing is mainly procedural (government red tape) rather than an indication that regulators will block the deal.

LRCX. Mounting Tailwinds Bode Well For 2025 & Beyond

By William Keating

Q124 revenues of $3.79 billion, pretty much flat sequentially both QoQ and YoY, and also marginally better than guidance.
Looking ahead, the company forecasted Q224 revenues $3.8 billion, i.e. flat QoQ. Still no full year 2024 outlook
Technology transitions such as GAA, Backside Power, molybdenum replacing tungsten & the rise of generative AI will all be growth drivers in 2025 & beyond

KYEC (2449.TT): 1Q24F Was a Seasonal Dip, but 2Q24F Should Be Picking up Below 5% QoQ.

By Patrick Liao

In 1Q24, it was reported that the revenue growth was -3.35% QoQ, slightly exceeding our expectation of a 5% QoQ decline.
For 2Q24, revenue is expected to grow, but the increase is projected to be less than 5% QoQ.
NVIDIA revenue in KYEC is forecasted to reach 15% by the end of 2024F, up from about 2% in 2023, driven by the increasing demand for AI.

TBO Tek IPO – RHP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Valuation

By Ethan Aw

TBO Tek (0395045D IN) is looking to raise approximately US$200m in its upcoming India IPO.
TBO Tek is a global travel distribution platform. Its two-sided technology platform serves companies involved in the travel industry such as hotels, airlines, travel agencies and travel management companies.
In this note, we provide a summary of its RHP updates and share our quick thoughts on valuation.

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May 06

Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Mini Kospi 200 Futures, Iron Ore and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

Addressing Areas of Confusion Surrounding the KOSPI 200 June Rebalancing
Iron Ore: 117 USD/Ton and Upwards to 130 Short-Term, Catalysts To Watch and Our Stock Screener

Addressing Areas of Confusion Surrounding the KOSPI 200 June Rebalancing

By Sanghyun Park

Ssangyong C&E will be excluded in June pre-delisting due to the float rate rule. Replacement will be chosen from the highest market cap existing constituents excluded in the June review.
Likely owing to the recent expansion of macro variables in the local market, a clear correlation between results and price impact is not observed even at the screening period’s conclusion.
There’s a chance of price impact closer to the effective date, suggesting potentially more effective basket trading. However, short instrument absence necessitates using market indices as hedges.

Iron Ore: 117 USD/Ton and Upwards to 130 Short-Term, Catalysts To Watch and Our Stock Screener

By Sameer Taneja

Iron ore continued to lounge around the 117 USD/ton levels, but there is increased optimism for Iron Ore and The China Property/Auto Stimulus Angle
Spreads between 65 and 62 widened to 13.8 USD/ton from 12.6 USD/ton last week, and we expect this spread to build further.
The street now widely anticipates the China TSF number between 9-15th of May, which is expected to grow in April at 14.5% YoY on consensus estimates to 1.4 trillion Yuan.

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May 06

Daily Brief Industrials: ZEEKR, China Merchants Expressway Net, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL), HD Hyundai Marine Solution , Fluence Corp and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

ZEEKR (ZK US) IPO: Valuation Insights
CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Bounce in the Potential Deletes Could Be Short Lived
Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 30-Apr/3-May 2024): Big Volumes, Low Net; As Will Play Catchup
ECM Weekly (6th May 2024) – Aadhar, Indegene, TBO Tek, Super Hi, China Resources Bev, Honasa, Worley
Fluence Corp Ltd – New strategy proving up

ZEEKR (ZK US) IPO: Valuation Insights

By Arun George

ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium Chinese BEV manufacturer and a subsidiary of Geely Auto (175 HK), has launched an IPO to raise up to US$368 million.
We previously discussed the IPO in ZEEKR IPO: The Bull Case, ZEEKR IPO: The Bear Case and ZEEKR IPO: Latest Updates as the IPO Process Restarts.
The IPO price range values ZEEKR at a material discount to peers’ multiples. We would be inclined to participate in the IPO.

CSI300 Index Rebalance Preview: Bounce in the Potential Deletes Could Be Short Lived

The review period for the June rebalance is complete and we expect 11 changes to the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Inde (SHSZ300 INDEX).
We estimate one-way turnover of 1.4% at the rebalance leading to a one-way trade of CNY 8.82bn (US$1.22bn). There are a lot of stocks with multiple days ADV to trade.
The potential deletes have bounced off their lows as the market has recovered. But the potential passive selling could see them underperform over the next month.

Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Flows (To 30-Apr/3-May 2024): Big Volumes, Low Net; As Will Play Catchup

By Research as a Service (RaaS)

The Quiddity Mainland Connect NORTHBOUND Monitor. Like the A/H Premium Monitor and HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Monitor. Lots of Flows/Position Tables and Charts with which to play.
Last week saw NORTHBOUND net BUY RMB 2.3bn of A-shares on high gross low net volume in the two days. NORTHBOUND bought CATL, Shenzhen Mindray, some financials.
As outperformed Hs on Monday and Tuesday (when both were open), then Hs rocketed on Thursday and Friday. As will have to catch up early in the week.

ECM Weekly (6th May 2024) – Aadhar, Indegene, TBO Tek, Super Hi, China Resources Bev, Honasa, Worley

By Sumeet Singh

Aequitas Research puts out a weekly update on the deals that were covered by the team recently along with updates for upcoming IPOs.
On the IPO front, a number of deals were launched in India, while HD Hyundai Marine Solution (443060 KS) will list in the coming week.
On the placement front, the two deals in Australia, WorleyParsons Ltd (WOR AU) and Endeavour Group /Australia (EDV AU) delivered opposing results.

Fluence Corp Ltd – New strategy proving up

Fluence Corporation (ASX:FLC) specialises in the delivery of water and wastewater solutions in industrial, municipal and commercial industries across the globe.
The company released an update on Q1 performance (note: FLC has a December balance date), that clearly validates the change in group strategy away from large construction and engineering projects, and towards smaller, higher margin, proprietary solutions, with a clear push into North America.
The company has maintained full year guidance of US$90m-$100m of revenue and EBITDA of US$3.5m-$4.0m, a positive turnaround from the EBITDA breakeven position of FY23.

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May 06

Daily Brief Health Care: China Traditional Chinese Medicine, APT Medical , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

Merger Arb Mondays (06 May) – China TCM, L’Occitane, Hollysys, Shinko, QV Equities, Qantm IP, Adbri
CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Rally and Outperform the Potential Deletes
China TCM (570.HK) Update – Despite Doubts, This Privatization Seems “Mandatory”
China Healthcare Weekly (May.5) – Overvaluation in Primary Market, RDC to Be Hot Spot, Yiling Pharma

Merger Arb Mondays (06 May) – China TCM, L’Occitane, Hollysys, Shinko, QV Equities, Qantm IP, Adbri

By Arun George

We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US), QV Equities Ltd (QVE AU), Southern Cross Media (SXL AU), Qantm Intellectual Property (QIP AU), Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU), China TCM.
Lowest spreads: Chilled & Frozen Logistics Holdings (9099 JP), Roland DG Corp (6789 JP), Mma Offshore (MRM AU), Pact Group Holdings (PGH AU), Jastec Co Ltd (9717 JP).

CSI500 Index Rebalance Preview: Potential Adds Rally and Outperform the Potential Deletes

With the review period now complete, we forecast 50 changes (the maximum permitted) for the CSI Smallcap 500 Index – Shang (SH000905 INDEX) at the close on 14 June.
We estimate a one-way turnover of 9.3% at the rebalance resulting in a one-way trade of CNY10.88bn (US$1.5bn). The Industrials and Information Technology sectors gain at the expense of Materials.
The potential adds have outperformed the potential deletes by 8% over the last 3 months. There could be further outperformance over the next few weeks.

China TCM (570.HK) Update – Despite Doubts, This Privatization Seems “Mandatory”

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Some investors have concerns that the privatization may fail. We also noticed that Morgan Stanley raised China TCM’s target price to HK$5.4. However, the privatization of China TCM seems “mandatory”.
At this stage, some background information is worth the attention, which will help investors better understand the logic behind this privatization and thus resolve the “confusion”.
According to regulatory requirements, it’s expected that both CNPGC and Taiji will integrate resources in pharmaceutical manufacturing and distribution sectors, so as to solve horizontal competition issue between the two.

China Healthcare Weekly (May.5) – Overvaluation in Primary Market, RDC to Be Hot Spot, Yiling Pharma

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Due to the overvaluation of pharmaceutical companies in the primary market, only foreign markets are able to “digest” such high valuation. So, various promising drugs are acquired by foreign investors.
The field of RDC/RLT has attracted our attention, which could become the next hot area. Since nuclides are the most important bottleneck, domestic related enterprises will usher in opportunities.
Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical’s performance would continue to be under pressure in 24H1 but would rebound in 24H2 after “destocking”. Valuation/share price have not yet bottomed out. Don’t rush to bottom-fish.

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May 06

Daily Brief Financials: Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, ICBC (H), NIFTY Index and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Sell the 2024/25 Steepener
A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 May 2024): Minimal Moves in 2-Day Week
EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 29-Apr-24 to 03-May-24

HSCEI Dividend Futures: Sell the 2024/25 Steepener

The HSCEI 2024 dividend futures have moved higher following mainland China banks announcing that they will pay out interim dividends starting this year.
The HSCEI 2025 dividend futures have moved higher too, though they have lagged the HSCEI 2024 dividend futures.
Even though the HSCEI 2024/25 dividend steepener has dropped by around 10 points in the last few weeks, we see further downside in the near-term.

A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 May 2024): Minimal Moves in 2-Day Week

The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND’s consecutive buying streak ended on Monday 25-March, then started again. 20 days straight net buying. NORTHBOUND saw big inflows Friday. A record day I believe.
HK stocks bounced VERY hard. Seemed like big allocation trade. HSCEI +8.7% vs CSI300 +1.2%. In H/A Pairs, liquid pairs saw Hs outperform their A by 4+% on average.

EQD / NSE Volatility Update / 29-Apr-24 to 03-May-24

By Sankalp Singh

Implied Volatilities (IVs) have stabilized over the past few weeks & look to be in the early stages of an uptrend.
Breakdown in Spot-Vol correlation – higher IVs at a time when Equity Indices are flirting with All-time-Highs.
Skew compression in BankNifty Options driven by call-buying on the break above 49000, further exacerbated by pre-election demand for June & July expiries.

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May 06

Daily Brief Consumer: TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation, Ginebra San Miguel , TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Toridoll (3397): Restaurant Chain on a Lege
Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM): Gleanings From The Last 12 Years of Annual Reports and Q1 2024 Bonanza
Shareholder Returns Will Increase over June AGM, but Will Companies Hold up with Sluggish ROE?

Toridoll (3397): Restaurant Chain on a Lege

By Michael Allen

Macro trends for restaurant chains are all negative: Food prices rising faster than restaurant unit prices, part-time wages rising faster than full-time.
Toridoll’s same store sales resuming long-term underperformance trend that was broken only briefly during the pandemic.
Stock trades at 3x the market average PBR, despite merely average RoE. Technical support has broken down.

Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM): Gleanings From The Last 12 Years of Annual Reports and Q1 2024 Bonanza

By Sameer Taneja

Ginebra San Miguel (GSMI PM) is a monopoly in the gin business in the Philippines with a 97% marketshare trading at 7x PE FY24 ( 10-Yr Revenue CAGR 15% YoY).
After its Q1 results, it has 32% of the market cap in net cash and investments, a dividend yield of>7%, and a 5/10 Yr average ROCE of 37%/22%.
We summarize what we learned from the annual report released on April 15th. We saw a long-term trend of increasing prices, consistent margin growth, balance sheet improvement, etc.

Shareholder Returns Will Increase over June AGM, but Will Companies Hold up with Sluggish ROE?

By Aki Matsumoto

In addition to too much cash on hand to begin with, ROE is expected to continue to grow at a sluggish pace, as shareholder returns are less than profit growth.
Given that we expect more companies to have stock price, P/B, and ROE on the agenda for the June AGM, more companies are expected to announce increases in shareholder returns.
However, ROE is unlikely to increase significantly. Shareholder returns are certainly too small, but a more serious problem is the inability to find growth investment opportunities.

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May 05

Daily Brief Australia: Adbri and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Australia, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

Adbri (ABC AU): 12th June Shareholder Vote

Adbri (ABC AU): 12th June Shareholder Vote

By David Blennerhassett

On the 27 Feb 2024, construction play Adbri (ABC AU) entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with CRH (CRH US) and 42.7%-shareholder Raymond Barro (Chairman) at $5.20/share.
Conditions include Adbri’s shareholder approval and FIRB signing off. Optically, it doesn’t appear to be a knockout price. However, Adbri’s share price has laboured since the onset of Covid.
The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting to be held on the 12th June. Expected implementation on the 1 July. IE says fair & reasonable.

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May 05

Daily Brief India: Gravita India and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

A Closer Look at Gravita India’s Qualified Audit Opinion

A Closer Look at Gravita India’s Qualified Audit Opinion

By Nimish Maheshwari

Gravita India (GRAV IN) faced a Qualified Audit Opinion over share sale proceeds’ reporting by its Employee Welfare Trust.
The dispute centers on whether to record these proceeds in the P&L or Balance Sheet, impacting transparency and financial metrics.
This dispute reduced the PBT by 7.54% and EPS by 8.66% decrease in Q4 FY24.

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May 05

Daily Brief United States: Marathon Digital Holdings, ZEEKR, Bristol Myers Squibb Co, Caterpillar Inc, Comcast Corp Class A, Dexcom Inc, Gilead Sciences, Edwards Lifesciences, Honeywell International, Carrier Global and more

By Smartkarma Daily Briefs | Daily Briefs, United States

In today’s briefing:

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Bitcoin Miner Is a SPCY Add
ZEEKR IPO: Attractive ~$4.8B Midpoint Valuation Offers At Least 30% Upside
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company: A Deep Dive Into The Progress Of Its Clinical Portfolio! – Major Drivers
Caterpillar Inc.: A Deep Dive Into Its Key Areas Of Competitive Advantage & Recent Strategic Investments! – Major Drivers
Comcast Corporation: A Story Of Superior Product Innovation & An Improving Market Position! – Major Drivers
DexCom Inc.: Why Are We Bullish On This Med-Tech Player Despite The Highly Evident Challenges Ahead? – Major Drivers
Gilead Sciences: Acquisition of CymaBay Therapeutics Enhancing Liver Disease Portfolio & 6 Major Drivers
Edwards Lifesciences Corporation: Increased Investment in Field Resources and Patient Access Initiatives! – Major Drivers
Honeywell International: Will Their Improved Performance In Energy and Sustainability Solutions (ESS) Expected To Propel Their Growth? – Major Drivers
Carrier Global Corporation: Can It Increase Its Productivity & Show Resilience Against Rising Material Costs? – Major Drivers

S&P500 Index Rebalance: Bitcoin Miner Is a SPCY Add

Following Exxon Mobil (XOM US)‘s acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD), Vistra (VST US) will be added to the S&P 500 INDEX (SPX INDEX) at the close on 7 May.
Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US) is an add to the S&P SmallCap 600 Index and the stock could move higher till implementation.
Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA US) stock has underperformed its close peers this year and the ratio of Marathon Digital Holdings stock price to Bitcoin (XBTUSD CURNCY) is near the lows.

ZEEKR IPO: Attractive ~$4.8B Midpoint Valuation Offers At Least 30% Upside

By Andrei Zakharov

Geely-Backed ZEEKR set terms for U.S. IPO: EV maker offers 17.5M American depositary shares (ADSs) at the price range of $18-$21, implying a market cap of ~$4.8B at the midpoint.
Geely Auto, Mobileye and CATL have indicated a non-binding interest in subscribing for an aggregate of up to ~$349M worth of the ADSs being offered in this offering.
I have a positive view of ZEEKR IPO as the offering will be priced significantly below last round valuation of ~$13B.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Company: A Deep Dive Into The Progress Of Its Clinical Portfolio! – Major Drivers

It is clear from Bristol-Myers Squibb’s first quarter 2024 earnings that the company has had a strong start to the year, even as it navigates some challenges.
The firm’s performance during this time showcased the strength and potential of its commercial portfolio and the progress it has made in advancing its pipeline.
Key brands such as Eliquis, Opdualag, Reblozyl, Yervoy, and Breyanzi have demonstrated significant strength, contributing to the company’s overall performance.

Caterpillar Inc.: A Deep Dive Into Its Key Areas Of Competitive Advantage & Recent Strategic Investments! – Major Drivers

Caterpillar’s earnings for the first quarter of 2024 highlighted a strong quarter with sales and revenues maintaining levels consistent with the last year, largely meeting the company’s expectations.
A key aspect was the continuation of healthy demand for its products and services across major end markets.
Thanks to its robust balance sheet and free cash flow, the company was able to allocate a remarkable $5.1 billion for share repurchases and dividends during the quarter.

Comcast Corporation: A Story Of Superior Product Innovation & An Improving Market Position! – Major Drivers

Comcast Corporation reported Q1 earnings recently highlighted by a strategic execution where the company maintained dominance in a competitive and evolving market.
The company’s resilient capital allocation strategy and strong balance sheet place it in a favorable position, allowing it to invest aggressively in its six diverse growth businesses- Residential Broadband, Wireless, Business Services, Theme Parks, Studios, and Streaming.
These sectors made up more than 55% of the company’s total revenue in Q1, and this proportion is set to grow.

DexCom Inc.: Why Are We Bullish On This Med-Tech Player Despite The Highly Evident Challenges Ahead? – Major Drivers

Dexcom, Inc., particularly known for its continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) technology, consistently showcased strong performance in the first quarter of 2024 with an organic revenue growth of 25% compared to the first quarter of 2023.
This noteworthy surge is credited to the substantial demand for Dexcom CGM, seen as customers increasingly value its leading product performance and unique user experience.
The shift towards Dexcom’s CGM technology has been significant, especially since the launch of G7 in the U.S., which enabled Dexcom to attract a broad range of new prescribers and improve its impact within primary care, resulting in growing demand from people with diabetes.

Gilead Sciences: Acquisition of CymaBay Therapeutics Enhancing Liver Disease Portfolio & 6 Major Drivers

Gilead Sciences Inc. reported a solid first quarter of 2024.
Total product sales, exclusive of Veklury, rose 6% year-over-year to $6.1 billion.
Growth was driven primarily by demand across its HIV, oncology, and liver disease verticals.

Edwards Lifesciences Corporation: Increased Investment in Field Resources and Patient Access Initiatives! – Major Drivers

Edwards Lifesciences Corporation recorded robust first quarter 2024 results, demonstrating growth on numerous fronts.
The company’s total sales rose by 10% to $1.6 billion against the same period last year, leading Edwards to raise its 2024 sales guidance to the high end of 8% to 10%.
This highlights the company’s successful strategic direction, underscored by its substantial investments across transcatheter platforms which are addressing patient needs associated with aortic, mitral, and tricuspid diseases.

Honeywell International: Will Their Improved Performance In Energy and Sustainability Solutions (ESS) Expected To Propel Their Growth? – Major Drivers

Honeywell International Inc.’s first-quarter 2024 earnings reveals consistent growth in the company, exceeding its adjusted earning per share guidance and organic sales targets.
Despite the dynamic macroeconomic environment, the robust execution of Honeywell’s Accelerator operating system and the company’s diversified technology portfolio has led to significant performance gains.
With recovery in key areas of Honeywell’s short-cycle portfolio and sustained growth in its long-cycle Aerospace and energy businesses, the company demonstrates a positive momentum in its financial results.

Carrier Global Corporation: Can It Increase Its Productivity & Show Resilience Against Rising Material Costs? – Major Drivers