Category

Daily Briefs

Most Read: Shin Kong Financial Holding, Seven & I Holdings, Tokyo Metro, Dexus Property, Samsung Electronics, Voltas Ltd, Korea Zinc, Pony AI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Shin Kong and Taishin – There’s a Good Value Swap Trade To Do Here
  • The TOPIX October FFW Trade – BIG Numbers
  • The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO And Aftermarket – What To Look For
  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Listing Tomorrow; Div Yield and Index Flows Should Take It Higher
  • Australia: Potential Passive Selling in November Will Be Big
  • Surging Buzz Around the Potential Split of Samsung Electronics
  • NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 56% Turnover, Big Trade & Strong Momentum
  • Korea Zinc: Remaining Free Float Post Tender and a Margin Call for Choi on Young Poong Precision?
  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): One Miss; A Bigger Index Inclusion Coming?
  • Pony AI Pre-IPO – The Positives – Scaling up Robotaxi & Robotrucks


Shin Kong and Taishin – There’s a Good Value Swap Trade To Do Here

By Travis Lundy

  • Media reports indicate that the shareholder base of Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and Taishin Financial Holding (2887 TT) have approved their merger. 
  • Shin Kong meeting results were public just before the market closed. The results from Taishin were known earlier. The market and spread were un-moved. If anything, things widened a little.
  • Next, the two companies try to get fair Trade Commission, FSC, and Exchange approval to join to become Taishin Shin Kong FHC. And there’s a good trade to do here.

The TOPIX October FFW Trade – BIG Numbers

By Travis Lundy

  • Post-Close on the 5th business day of October every year, the TSE announces the Free Float Weight review for all stocks where the FY ends in the Jan-March quarter.
  • Yesterday saw 210 decent changes to FFW (more up than down). There are still 400+ Phased Weight Reductions, 3 new adds (3663, 3993, 9341), and some share cancellation-based share-count reductions.
  • It turns out there is a LOT to trade. I see ¥2trln one-way (¥2trln net to buy on 245 names, and ¥2trln to sell on the other nearly 1,900 names). 

The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO And Aftermarket – What To Look For

By Travis Lundy

  • The Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) IPO is one of the largest IPOs of recent years, well-flagged, and it is hot hot hot!  A super stable, well-known, well-respected, service provider.
  • There are numerous attractions but I expect people have not thought too deeply about the demand and supply dynamics of different holder types. It’s worth thinking about. 
  • This was priced “cheap” but everyone knows that so there may be flippers. This is probably more Japan Post Bank than Japan Post Insurance.

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): Listing Tomorrow; Div Yield and Index Flows Should Take It Higher

By Brian Freitas

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) priced its IPO at the top end (JPY 1200/share), raised JPY 348.6bn (US$2.3bn) and the company is valued at JPY 697bn (US$4.62bn).
  • The stock starts to trade today, and the grey market is indicating an open 20% higher. Not surprising considering that the IPO was heavily oversubscribed.
  • Even at a price of JPY 1440/share, the estimated dividend yield is 2.78% and that should keep the stock supported. Index inclusions will result in more buying next week.

Australia: Potential Passive Selling in November Will Be Big

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be two or three Aussie names that are deleted from global passive portfolios in November. In each of the cases, there is a lot to sell from passives.
  • One name is very high probability while the deletion of the others depends on the day of the week chosen.
  • Shorts have been built up on the stocks and there are strong indications of positioning. But the extent of the positioning varies, and the stocks could have differently.

Surging Buzz Around the Potential Split of Samsung Electronics

By Sanghyun Park

  • We’re starting to see some local market players getting ready and setting up trades that bet on a potential split for Samsung Electronics.
  • Samsung could leverage the buzz around spinning off its foundry business to split key units—foundry, memory chips, and others—into two or three separate companies at the shareholder meeting.
  • Additionally, the valuation gap between Samsung Electronics and Biologics has narrowed more than it has in the last decade, making it an even more attractive opportunity.

NIFTY200 Momentum30 Index Rebalance Preview: 56% Turnover, Big Trade & Strong Momentum

By Brian Freitas

  • There could be 16 changes for the Nifty200 Momentum 30 Index that will be implemented at the close on 30 December.
  • If all changes are on expected lines, one-way turnover is estimated at 55.6% and that will result in a one-way trade of INR 62bn (US$736m).
  • Since June, the potential adds to the index have outperformed the index and the potential deletes by a big margin. Momentum could keep the outperformance going till implementation date.

Korea Zinc: Remaining Free Float Post Tender and a Margin Call for Choi on Young Poong Precision?

By Douglas Kim

  • According to Korea Zinc, it plans to disclose the treasury shares tender offer results on 28 October.
  • We discuss the remaining free float after the tender offer and the probabilities of share price decline or even a share price squeeze post announcement of the tender offer results.
  • All in all, this M&A fight for Korea Zinc remains tight with a slight advantage to MBK/Young Poong alliance.

Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): One Miss; A Bigger Index Inclusion Coming?

By Brian Freitas

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) had a blockbuster listing yesterday, finishing the day 45% higher. That took the estimated div yield down from 3.33% (at the IPO price) to 2.3%.
  • One expected index inclusion will not take place due to insufficient information on IPO allocations and that leads to a much lower free float than expected.
  • That inclusion will now be deferred to June; BUT there could be two other (bigger) index inclusions on the cards prior to that.

Pony AI Pre-IPO – The Positives – Scaling up Robotaxi & Robotrucks

By Sumeet Singh

  • Pony AI (PONY US)  an autonomous mobility solutions provider, is looking to raise up to US$300m in its US IPO. 
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Tokyo Metro, Afcons Infrastructure Limited, PayPoint PLC, Nidec Corp, SITC International, Grupo Aeroportuario Sur-Adr, Controladora Vuela Cia De-A and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): One Miss; A Bigger Index Inclusion Coming?
  • Afcons Infrastructure IPO – Decent Upside from the Price Range
  • Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Thoughts Deliveroo and Coca-Cola; More Intra-Review Changes
  • Nidec (6594)| Q2 In-Line; Long-Term Outlook Intact
  • SITC International (1308 HK): Unbeatable
  • ASR US – Actinver Research – ASUR 3Q24: Positive Results, In line with our estimates (Quick View)
  • Actinver Research – VOLAR 3Q24: Positive Quarterly Results, Beating Our Estimates (Quick View)


Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): One Miss; A Bigger Index Inclusion Coming?

By Brian Freitas

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) had a blockbuster listing yesterday, finishing the day 45% higher. That took the estimated div yield down from 3.33% (at the IPO price) to 2.3%.
  • One expected index inclusion will not take place due to insufficient information on IPO allocations and that leads to a much lower free float than expected.
  • That inclusion will now be deferred to June; BUT there could be two other (bigger) index inclusions on the cards prior to that.

Afcons Infrastructure IPO – Decent Upside from the Price Range

By Clarence Chu

  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (6595396Z IN) is looking to raise around US$650m in its India IPO.
  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (Afcons) is the flagship infrastructure engineering and construction company of the Shapoorji Pallonji group.
  • In a previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we look at the updates since, and discuss valuation.

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Thoughts Deliveroo and Coca-Cola; More Intra-Review Changes

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the F100 and F250 indices during the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • Separately, we see multiple M&A-related intra-review changes in the next few months.
  • There could also be more regular changes during the December 2024 rebalanced event

Nidec (6594)| Q2 In-Line; Long-Term Outlook Intact

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nidec’s Q2 operating income beat my estimates, driven by strong small motors and appliance segments, though automotive profits underperformed
  • The automotive division is shifting focus from e-axles to broader auto parts, while improving operational efficiency through partnerships and streamlined logistics
  • Despite macro risks, Nidec remains well-positioned for long-term growth in digitalization, decarbonization, and automation, with a price target of ¥4,350

SITC International (1308 HK): Unbeatable

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Together with the just-announced HK$0.40 special DPS, SITC International (1308 HK) has already handed back HK$1.12/share to shareholders YTD, realising a dividend yield of 6.5%.
  • Its 3Q24 performance is impressive, with revenue surging 56.6% YoY. Both volume (+13.4%) and average freight rates (+44.1%) have exhibited solid momentum. 
  • While the consensus forecasts have been upgraded by 7-11% since the 1H24 result, there appears more room to go. FY24 ROE is now expected to be 32.2%.

ASR US – Actinver Research – ASUR 3Q24: Positive Results, In line with our estimates (Quick View)

By Actinver

  • Operating Revenues of P$6.8bn were driven by solid aeronautical growth.
  • Total operating sales growth of 14% YoY was driven by a solid 19% YoY gain in aeronautical revenues, mainly explained by higher average tariffs (+22% YoY), which offset the 2% drop in total PAX.
  • On the other hand, non-aeronautical revenues (34% of the total) gained 5% YoY, supported by an implicit gain of 7% YoY in the non-aeronautical revenue per PAX.

Actinver Research – VOLAR 3Q24: Positive Quarterly Results, Beating Our Estimates (Quick View)

By Actinver

  • Operating revenues of US$813 m decreased by 4% YoY.
  • Top-line results were negatively impacted by a 14% YoY contraction in the ASMs (due to mandatory engine inspections, which resulted in the landing on average of 34 airplanes) and a 13% YoY drop in RPMs. Yields in the quarter ended at US$53.0, implying a 9% YoY gain and 7% above our estimate.
  • The load factor in 3Q24 was 87.4%, with a +1.0 pp YoY expansion.

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Daily Brief Health Care: Rigaku Holdings, Orum Therapeutics, Beijing Biostar Pharmaceuticals Co Ltd, Samsung Biologics , SBC Medical Group Holdings and more

By | Daily Briefs, Healthcare

In today’s briefing:

  • Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: Trading Debut
  • Orum Therapeutics IPO Valuation Analysis
  • Pre-IPO Beijing Biostar Pharmaceuticals (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
  • Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): 3Q Result Beat Expectation; Guidance Raise Amid Increasing Order Book
  • SBC: Fast Growing Solutions Provider in Expanding Medical Aesthetics Market, Initiating Coverage


Rigaku Holdings (268A JP) IPO: Trading Debut

By Arun George


Orum Therapeutics IPO Valuation Analysis

By Douglas Kim

  • Our base case target price for Orum Therapeutics is 35,170 won per share, which is within the IPO price range of 30,000 won to 36,000 won per share. 
  • Given the lack of upside relative to the target price, we have a Negative View of this IPO. 
  • FSS has requested correction to the company’s IPO prospectus. As a result, it now appears the IPO could be delayed. 

Pre-IPO Beijing Biostar Pharmaceuticals (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Biostar’s revenue growth decreased obviously in the first five months in 2024. Under the fierce competition and anti-corruption campaign, the expectation for the commercialization performance of Biostar is not high.
  • Although Biostar has invested a lot of resources in market exposure, high customer concentration indicates that the Company faces challenges in marketing/customer relationship expansion. Biostar has also encountered overcapacity issues.
  • After Series E Financing, Biostar’s post-investment valuation was RMB4.49 billion. But we’re not optimistic about the outlook of Biostar. This valuation could be difficult to achieve in HK stock market.

Samsung Biologics (207940 KS): 3Q Result Beat Expectation; Guidance Raise Amid Increasing Order Book

By Tina Banerjee

  • In 3Q24, Samsung Biologics (207940 KS) reported 15% YoY revenue growth to KRW1,187B, driven by the contribution of Plant 4, the full utilization of Plants 1–3, and biosimilar products.
  • The company has raised 2024 annual revenue growth guidance to 15–20% YoY from 10–15% earlier, driven by successful ramp-up of Plant 4 and favorable Fx movement.
  • The company has signed record-breaking CMO contract with an Asian pharmaceutical company, thereby bringing the company’s total new contract value for the year to more than $3.3B.

SBC: Fast Growing Solutions Provider in Expanding Medical Aesthetics Market, Initiating Coverage

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • SBC continues to expand its footprint organically and through strategic M&A to grow its franchisee network and revenue base.
  • SBC can leverage its strong balance sheet and suite of solutions to lower the all-in costs for clinics to launch and / or extend their businesses and to support its overall expansion strategy.
  • The rising acceptance of and popularity of aesthetic medicine in Japan and globally creates a tailwind for its growth, in our view.

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Daily Brief Consumer: Swiggy, Multi Bintang Indonesia, Goldwin Inc, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, JAKKS Pacific , Consorcio ARA, Inter Parfums, Guess? Inc and more

By | Consumer, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Swiggy IPO: Zomato’s USD 1bn Fundraise Signals Looming Quick Commerce Challenges
  • Multi Bintang (MLBI IJ): Massive Inflection in Q3 FY24 with Double Digit Growth !!
  • Goldwin: 50% Growth in 5 Years? Possible but Some Challenges
  • If Equity Compensation Are Introduced for Employees as Is, the Gender Gap in Compensation Widens
  • JAKK: 3Q Preview: More than Holiday Movie Winners; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT
  • Actinver Research – ARA 3Q24: Quarterly Results in Line with Our Estimates (Quick View)
  • IPAR: Prestige of Success
  • GES: Snapping the Store: Going Full On for Fall; Reiterate Buy, $29 PT


Swiggy IPO: Zomato’s USD 1bn Fundraise Signals Looming Quick Commerce Challenges

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Zomato (ZOMATO IN) ‘s proposed USD 1 billion fundraise highlights several potential risks for Quick Commerce players, including Swiggy (1255298D IN) .
  • Beyond heightened competition, majority foreign-owned Quick Commerce businesses including Swiggy could face regulatory hurdles if classified as multi-brand retail, limiting their foreign ownership.
  • Investors may fear about Swiggy’s regulatory risks and profitability struggles in this competitive landscape, which could dampen investor enthusiasm and IPO valuation.

Multi Bintang (MLBI IJ): Massive Inflection in Q3 FY24 with Double Digit Growth !!

By Sameer Taneja

  • Multi Bintang Indonesia (MLBI IJ) experienced a massive inflection in its revenue with 21.9%/35% revenue/net profit growth as we approach the Q4 high season. 
  • Earlier, parent Heineken NV (HEIA NA)  had flagged in its H1 2024 report that Indonesia was experiencing double-digit growth following excise duties implemented in January 2024.
  • Trading at 11.5x FY24/net cash with >8% dividend yield and historical ROCEs averaging over 80%, we see a turning point in the share price now. 

Goldwin: 50% Growth in 5 Years? Possible but Some Challenges

By Michael Causton

  • Goldwin has big plans for both The North Face in the Japanese and Korean markets and for its own brand globally.
  • But there are worries about saturation for the former in Japan, slowing brand development, and lack of expertise in overseas markets to build its own brand.
  • Goldwin has had an amazing run but can it build a global brand? If it can, it will feed into high levels of demand for Japan-tech sports brands.

If Equity Compensation Are Introduced for Employees as Is, the Gender Gap in Compensation Widens

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Unlike the transfer of personnel rights, which is resisted by management, equity compensation that can be used to retain talent is attractive to management and is likely to accelerate.
  • If equity compensation plans are introduced for employees with a low ratio of female managers, the gap in compensation between men and women is expected to widen.
  • The introduction of equity compensation for employees is anticipated to provide an opportunity for management “kaizen” tips to emerge from individual workplaces.

JAKK: 3Q Preview: More than Holiday Movie Winners; Reiterate Buy, $30 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $30 price target and projections for JAKKS Pacific with the company announcing 3Q24 (September) results after the close on Wednesday.
  • We remain confident in our inline projections for the quarter, and believe the company, with a strong, somewhat lower-risk Holiday movie lineup in 2024, the beginning of the ramp of the Authentic Brands and The Simpsons license expansions, and the potential upside for Dog Man and the company’s own Wild Manes line launch, is well positioned to drive top and bottom line upside into 2025.
  • As such, we reiterate our Buy rating and $30 price target for JAKK.

Actinver Research – ARA 3Q24: Quarterly Results in Line with Our Estimates (Quick View)

By Actinver

  • Total revenues of P$1.9bn were in line with our estimates and increased 6% YoY.
  • Housing revenues (96% of total) were up 7% due to an 8% gain in the average selling price to P$1.2 million.
  • This result partially offset the 1% contraction in the housing volume during the quarter.

IPAR: Prestige of Success

By Hamed Khorsand

  • IPAR continues to demonstrate its ability to outperform with its brand portfolio of prestige fragrances. IPAR provided preliminary third quarter 2024 sales estimate of approximately $425 million. 
  • We believe the growth IPAR is reporting for the third quarter was the result of greater demand than retailers stocking more for the holidays.   
  • IPAR highlighted the growth in its top two brands, Jimmy Choo and Montblanc, as primary reasons for the sales in the quarter. Lacoste and Cavalli were an additional boost.  

GES: Snapping the Store: Going Full On for Fall; Reiterate Buy, $29 PT

By Small Cap Consumer Research

  • We are reiterating our Buy rating, $29 price target and projections for Guess?
  • after visiting stores in Long Island and the Metro New York City area.
  • We believe, with the Fall fashion season in full bloom, the company has continued to raise the stakes for elevation, escalating key categories such as sweaters, outerwear and activewear, while raising the stakes for denim and focusing even more attention on accessories as a key play for Holiday events/parties.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Korea Zinc, Iron Ore, Endurance Gold, GCC SAB de CV, Japan Pure Chemical and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • Korea Zinc: Remaining Free Float Post Tender and a Margin Call for Choi on Young Poong Precision?
  • [IO Technicals Weekly 2024/42] Iron Ore Price Reversal Continues
  • EDG: Gaps Begin to be Filled & Drilling Accelerates with 2nd Rig
  • Actinver Research – GCC 3Q24: The EBITDA Margin Expansion Continues (Quick View)
  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Small Cap Iron Ore Miner With Great Upside
  • Japan Pure Chemical (4973 JP): 1H FY03/25 flash update


Korea Zinc: Remaining Free Float Post Tender and a Margin Call for Choi on Young Poong Precision?

By Douglas Kim

  • According to Korea Zinc, it plans to disclose the treasury shares tender offer results on 28 October.
  • We discuss the remaining free float after the tender offer and the probabilities of share price decline or even a share price squeeze post announcement of the tender offer results.
  • All in all, this M&A fight for Korea Zinc remains tight with a slight advantage to MBK/Young Poong alliance.

[IO Technicals Weekly 2024/42] Iron Ore Price Reversal Continues

By Pranay Yadav

  • SGX IO Futures fell for the second consecutive week, closing USD 4.15/ton lower at USD 101.70/ton on 18/Oct, with a trading range of USD 9.75/ton.
  • Short-Term moving averages signaled a bearish reversal, with a downward 9-day moving average and failure to break above key pivot points.
  • Heavy selling pressure and expanded China stimulus measures disappointed market expectations, signaling continued bearish trends with a potential test of USD 97.5/ton support.

EDG: Gaps Begin to be Filled & Drilling Accelerates with 2nd Rig

By Atrium Research

  • What you need to know: • EDG announced assay results for four drill holes as part of its 10,000m 2024 drill program; it has completed 22 holes (6,100m) to date.
  • • Today’s results confirmed strong mineralization in large untested gaps between Eagle & Imperial, also confirming mineralization at depth.
  • • A 2nd drill rig has been added to accelerate the drill program – this rig will test the near-surface portion of the Eagle Zone.

Actinver Research – GCC 3Q24: The EBITDA Margin Expansion Continues (Quick View)

By Actinver

  • GCC posted positive results, above our estimates at the EBITDA level.
  • Although revenues decreased by 4% YoY, higher prices in cement and ready-mix and cost contention were the main drivers behind a 2.6 pp EBITDA margin expansion, reaching a 40.7% level.
  • Revenues of US$398 M (-4% YoY) were driven by a 17% contraction in Mexico and a +1% YoY gain in revenues in EE.UU.

Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Small Cap Iron Ore Miner With Great Upside

By Sameer Taneja

  • Fenix Resources (FEX AU) is a small-cap iron ore miner/logistics provider with massive upside based on an increasing sales profile from 1.3 to 4 million tons over FY25/26. 
  • The company is also positioning itself as a logistics provider with the potential to transport 10 million tons of material through the Geraldton Port with its infrastructure in place. 
  • Trading at 5.4x FY25e PE with a 1.8 EV-EBITDA, >38% of the market cap in cash, this is a stock worth exploring.

Japan Pure Chemical (4973 JP): 1H FY03/25 flash update

By Shared Research

  • Revenue reached JPY3.1bn, an 8.3% YoY increase, achieving 48.7% of the full-year forecast, with strong AI demand.
  • Operating profit increased by 173.2% YoY to JPY149mn, driven by robust sales in plating chemicals for AI applications.
  • Net income forecast revised to JPY1.6bn due to gains from the sale of investment securities announced in August 2024.

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Daily Brief Financials: HDFC Bank, Auswide Bank, B3 – Brasil Bolsa Balcao, Shui On Land, Bitcoin, Spectral AI and more

By | Daily Briefs, Financials

In today’s briefing:

  • India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November
  • Auswide Bank (ABA AU)/ MyState (MYS AU) Merger: A Done Deal
  • Emerging Market Exchanges – Attractive Valuations with Defensive Qualities
  • Shui On Land – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics
  • Digital Asset Primer: Part 2 – Foundations, Companies, and Tokens: Strategic Insights for Investors
  • Spectral AI, Inc – MDAI: Management Changes


India: Potential Free Float Changes & Passive Flows in November

By Brian Freitas

  • Companies in India have disclosed their shareholding pattern as of end-September in October. There are companies with significant float changes from end-March and/or end-June.
  • The changes in free float could be reflected in domestic and global indices over the next few weeks and months resulting in action from passive trackers.
  • Depending on the date that the shareholding was published, there could be 11 stocks with passive inflows from global trackers while 6 could see passive outflows in November.

Auswide Bank (ABA AU)/ MyState (MYS AU) Merger: A Done Deal

By Arun George

  • The Auswide Bank (ABA AU) IE has considered Mystate Ltd (MYS AU)’s all-scrip merger offer in the best interests of the Auswide shareholders. However, the opinion comes with caveats.  
  • The offer is conditional on Auswide shareholder and regulatory approvals (ACCC, Treasury). The scheme meeting is on 2 December.
  • Vote risk is low due to the lack of substantial shareholders and the disinterested retail base. At the last close and for 18 December payment, the gross/annualised spread was 1.6%/10.3%.  

Emerging Market Exchanges – Attractive Valuations with Defensive Qualities

By Victor Galliano

  • Our core pick is Brazilian exchange B3; this is a contrarian call, given its poor share price performance year to date, but it is attractively priced versus its peers
  • B3’s share of post-trade revenue is understated, and it is a well-diversified exchange in terms of the product offering, which includes cash equities, equity derivatives, FX, interest rates and commodities
  • We also like Hong Kong Exchange, with its high share of post-trade revenues; HKEx should benefit from improving investor sentiment towards China, boosted by the Chinese government’s recent economic stimulus

Shui On Land – ESG Report – Lucror Analytics

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics’ ESG Scores are based on a 3-tiered scale and are adjusted for Controversies (if applicable).
We assess Shui On Land’s ESG as “Adequate”, in line with its Environmental, Social and Governance scores. Controversies are “Immaterial” and Disclosure is “Strong”.


Digital Asset Primer: Part 2 – Foundations, Companies, and Tokens: Strategic Insights for Investors

By Christopher Rosa

  • Blockchain technology provides decentralized, transparent, and immutable digital ledgers, revolutionizing how transactions and data are managed without reliance on centralized authorities or intermediaries.
  • Tokens enable participation in blockchain ecosystems by providing access to services, governance rights, or value transfers, playing a key role in incentivizing user engagement and network growth.
  • Foundations and companies shape the development of blockchain projects, issuing tokens to fund innovation, promote decentralization, and drive community-driven governance, supporting the evolution of Web3 technologies.

Spectral AI, Inc – MDAI: Management Changes

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Spectral AI is developing an AI-guided predictive medical device that employs multispectral imaging (MSI) to estimate a wound’s capacity to heal.
  • The company is pursuing indications in burn and diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) with the former receiving support from BARDA & other government agencies.
  • Spectral is distinguished by its combination of MSI and AI to improve diagnoses.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Tokyo Metro, Afcons Infrastructure Limited, PayPoint PLC, Nidec Corp, SITC International, Grupo Aeroportuario Sur-Adr, Controladora Vuela Cia De-A and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): One Miss; A Bigger Index Inclusion Coming?
  • Afcons Infrastructure IPO – Decent Upside from the Price Range
  • Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Thoughts Deliveroo and Coca-Cola; More Intra-Review Changes
  • Nidec (6594)| Q2 In-Line; Long-Term Outlook Intact
  • SITC International (1308 HK): Unbeatable
  • ASR US – Actinver Research – ASUR 3Q24: Positive Results, In line with our estimates (Quick View)
  • Actinver Research – VOLAR 3Q24: Positive Quarterly Results, Beating Our Estimates (Quick View)


Tokyo Metro (9023 JP): One Miss; A Bigger Index Inclusion Coming?

By Brian Freitas

  • Tokyo Metro (9023 JP) had a blockbuster listing yesterday, finishing the day 45% higher. That took the estimated div yield down from 3.33% (at the IPO price) to 2.3%.
  • One expected index inclusion will not take place due to insufficient information on IPO allocations and that leads to a much lower free float than expected.
  • That inclusion will now be deferred to June; BUT there could be two other (bigger) index inclusions on the cards prior to that.

Afcons Infrastructure IPO – Decent Upside from the Price Range

By Clarence Chu

  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (6595396Z IN) is looking to raise around US$650m in its India IPO.
  • Afcons Infrastructure Limited (Afcons) is the flagship infrastructure engineering and construction company of the Shapoorji Pallonji group.
  • In a previous note, we looked at the firm’s past performance. In this note, we look at the updates since, and discuss valuation.

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Dec 24: Thoughts Deliveroo and Coca-Cola; More Intra-Review Changes

By Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

  • In this insight, we take a look at the potential ADDs and DELs for the F100 and F250 indices during the December 2024 index rebal event.
  • Separately, we see multiple M&A-related intra-review changes in the next few months.
  • There could also be more regular changes during the December 2024 rebalanced event

Nidec (6594)| Q2 In-Line; Long-Term Outlook Intact

By Mark Chadwick

  • Nidec’s Q2 operating income beat my estimates, driven by strong small motors and appliance segments, though automotive profits underperformed
  • The automotive division is shifting focus from e-axles to broader auto parts, while improving operational efficiency through partnerships and streamlined logistics
  • Despite macro risks, Nidec remains well-positioned for long-term growth in digitalization, decarbonization, and automation, with a price target of ¥4,350

SITC International (1308 HK): Unbeatable

By Osbert Tang, CFA

  • Together with the just-announced HK$0.40 special DPS, SITC International (1308 HK) has already handed back HK$1.12/share to shareholders YTD, realising a dividend yield of 6.5%.
  • Its 3Q24 performance is impressive, with revenue surging 56.6% YoY. Both volume (+13.4%) and average freight rates (+44.1%) have exhibited solid momentum. 
  • While the consensus forecasts have been upgraded by 7-11% since the 1H24 result, there appears more room to go. FY24 ROE is now expected to be 32.2%.

ASR US – Actinver Research – ASUR 3Q24: Positive Results, In line with our estimates (Quick View)

By Actinver

  • Operating Revenues of P$6.8bn were driven by solid aeronautical growth.
  • Total operating sales growth of 14% YoY was driven by a solid 19% YoY gain in aeronautical revenues, mainly explained by higher average tariffs (+22% YoY), which offset the 2% drop in total PAX.
  • On the other hand, non-aeronautical revenues (34% of the total) gained 5% YoY, supported by an implicit gain of 7% YoY in the non-aeronautical revenue per PAX.

Actinver Research – VOLAR 3Q24: Positive Quarterly Results, Beating Our Estimates (Quick View)

By Actinver

  • Operating revenues of US$813 m decreased by 4% YoY.
  • Top-line results were negatively impacted by a 14% YoY contraction in the ASMs (due to mandatory engine inspections, which resulted in the landing on average of 34 airplanes) and a 13% YoY drop in RPMs. Yields in the quarter ended at US$53.0, implying a 9% YoY gain and 7% above our estimate.
  • The load factor in 3Q24 was 87.4%, with a +1.0 pp YoY expansion.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: Samsung Electronics, Pony AI, Horizon Robotics, Texas Instruments, Alibaba Group Holding and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Surging Buzz Around the Potential Split of Samsung Electronics
  • Pony AI Pre-IPO – The Positives – Scaling up Robotaxi & Robotrucks
  • Horizon Robotics IPO Trading – More than 55% of the Deal Taken up by Existing Shareholders
  • Texas Instrument: Small Beat in 3Q24, Uninspiring 4Q Guidance, the Stock Is Very Expensive.
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Oct-2024): 2025+ global smartphone forecast.
  • Pony AI IPO Preview: Small Scale and Early Stage Development. Is Exponential Growth Ahead?


Surging Buzz Around the Potential Split of Samsung Electronics

By Sanghyun Park

  • We’re starting to see some local market players getting ready and setting up trades that bet on a potential split for Samsung Electronics.
  • Samsung could leverage the buzz around spinning off its foundry business to split key units—foundry, memory chips, and others—into two or three separate companies at the shareholder meeting.
  • Additionally, the valuation gap between Samsung Electronics and Biologics has narrowed more than it has in the last decade, making it an even more attractive opportunity.

Pony AI Pre-IPO – The Positives – Scaling up Robotaxi & Robotrucks

By Sumeet Singh

  • Pony AI (PONY US)  an autonomous mobility solutions provider, is looking to raise up to US$300m in its US IPO. 
  • As per Frost & Sullivan, Pony AI was among the first companies in China to obtain licenses to operate fully driverless robotaxis in all four Tier-1 cities in China.
  • In this note, we talk about the positive aspects of the deal.

Horizon Robotics IPO Trading – More than 55% of the Deal Taken up by Existing Shareholders

By Sumeet Singh

  • Horizon Robotics (9660 HK) raised around US$800m, including over-allocation, in its Hong Kong IPO. 
  • Horizon Robotics (HR) is a provider of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD) solutions for passenger vehicles, empowered by its proprietary software and hardware technologies.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our previous notes. In this note, we will talk about the trading updates.

Texas Instrument: Small Beat in 3Q24, Uninspiring 4Q Guidance, the Stock Is Very Expensive.

By Nicolas Baratte

  • TXN reported 3Q24 last night: EPS 7% above Consensus, small beat. However, 4Q guidance shows a delayed / tepid recovery: revenue to decline -6% YoY, EPS to decline -21% YoY.
  • Industrial demand is still declining steeply -23% YoY, “hovering at the bottom”. Auto revenue -2% YoY with growth in China but rest of world is declining. 
  • The stock is trading at 31x 2025 and 25x 2026 Consensus EPS, way above its valuations range.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (24-Oct-2024): 2025+ global smartphone forecast.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • Global smartphone shipments expected to increase beyond 2025, with OLED technology gaining popularity in tablets and notebooks while Mini LED becomes less preferred.
  • Uncertainty over whether Trump will end TSMC’s subsidies for Arizona factory, impacting material suppliers benefiting from TSMC’s growth in 3Q24.
  • PSMC chairman shifts from cautious approach towards India to optimism with new partnership with Tata, while Horizon Robotics’ Hong Kong IPO supported by Alibaba, Baidu, and TSMC for manufacturing.

Pony AI IPO Preview: Small Scale and Early Stage Development. Is Exponential Growth Ahead?

By Andrei Zakharov

  • Pony AI, a founder-led global autonomous driving company, filed for an IPO in the United States and may raise up to $300M on the Nasdaq exchange.  
  • The technology company operates fully driverless robotaxis (L4) in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Mainland China.
  • Pony AI has raised ~$1.4B in equity financing from top-tier investors, including Toyota Motor, HongShan, IDG Capital, 5Y Capital, ClearVue Partners, and Eight Roads Ventures, among others.

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Daily Brief Quantitative Analysis: Quantamental LLM Primer 3: Quality-Control 2 AI-designed Portfolios to Devise a Final Portfolio and more

By | Daily Briefs, Quantitative Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Quantamental LLM Primer 3: Quality-Control 2 AI-designed Portfolios to Devise a Final Portfolio
  • KRX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 18th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, KB Financial, Shinhan Group


Quantamental LLM Primer 3: Quality-Control 2 AI-designed Portfolios to Devise a Final Portfolio

By William Mann

  • This report outlines a Quality-Control step: comparing output recommendations from two AIs: ChatGPT 4.o and o1-preview, to identify and analyze inconsistencies between the AI’s interpretation of the same Inputs/Prompts. 
  • The report from Primer 2 is uploaded to each AI with the same prompts: to compare and analyze the outputs and settle on a portfolio weighted with relative ETF convictions.
  • We analyze and adjust the merged AI-driven portfolio where we disagree with the AI’s conclusions. Our logic is shared with the AI to derive a final conviction-weighted market-neutral portfolio.  

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 18th): Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, KB Financial, Shinhan Group

By Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

  • We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Oct 18th which has an aggregated short interest worth USD5.0bn.
  • We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases & decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
  • We highlight short interest changes in Samsung Electronics, Sk Hynix, KB Financial, Shinhan Group, Hana Financial.

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Daily Brief Technical Analysis: Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling and more

By | Daily Briefs, Technical Analysis

In today’s briefing:

  • Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling


Bullish Outlook Focused on Large- And Mid-Caps; Russell 2000 Below Resistance; Concerns Dwindling

By Joe Jasper

  • Considering constructive market dynamics and the recent $SPX breakout above 5783 following several months of consolidation, we upgraded our outlook to bullish as of our 10/15/24 U.S. Macro Vision report
  • Since late-July, we have been neutral on the SPX, preferring to buy near 5100-5200 support and sell near 5670-5783 resistance until there is a break in either direction.
  • The verdict of the market is the only one that matters, and the breakout above 5783 is the market’s way of saying the path of least resistance is higher.

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