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Daily Briefs

Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Meituan (3690 HK): Out of the Woods and Light a Fire and more

By | Daily Briefs, Equity Bottom-Up

In today’s briefing:

  • Meituan (3690 HK): Out of the Woods and Light a Fire
  • Alibaba: Our Take on 4QFY24
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – May 2024
  • Alibaba (BABA US): Taobao/Tmall Is Back
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (16-May-2024): Impact of US tariff hike on China’s clean energy.
  • Cigniti Technologies – A Special Situation Bet
  • What’s Wrong with UPL?
  • Vipshop: Net Cash at 40% of Market Cap, Now Paying Dividends and Buying Back Shares
  • Recruit: As We Said… Weakening Earnings
  • Silergy (6415.TT): Rebounding from the Bottom in 1Q24, It Will Witness Normal Orders Since 2Q24.


Meituan (3690 HK): Out of the Woods and Light a Fire

By Eric Wen

  • We notice a pickup in consumer acceptance of instrashopping, as result of COVID-cultivated behavior. We notice similar business model worked outside of China (Coupang) for densely populated urban upper-middle-class customers;
  • Meituan’s launch of membership is a wise step towards strengthening user stickiness and emphasizing transaction soundness over impulsive buying. Meituan’s portfolio in food, dining, hotel & travel offer unparalleled value;
  • We see Meituan’s success in Hong Kong honed a replicable business model targeting single and low priced segment. Consolation on a global scale now seems a possibility.

Alibaba: Our Take on 4QFY24

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)‘s FQ4 announcement portrays a resilient comeback to growth, suggesting the past four years’ challenges barely impacted its dominance in Chinese e-commerce.
  • However, a closer look beyond the surface of Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)‘s FQ4 results announcement reveals that little has actually changed in recent months.
  • Taobao and Tmall face challenges in a tough, stagnant market; AIDC’s growth largely covers for other Alibaba units’ failings, while AliExpress’s expansion cuts into margins.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – May 2024

By Sameer Taneja


Alibaba (BABA US): Taobao/Tmall Is Back

By Eric Chen

  • Alibaba reported in-line revenue but disappointed adjusted net income for 4QFY24.
  • Yet a closer look shows strong core Taobao/Tmall performance was offset by higher-than-expected losses incurred by peripheral businesses.
  • We remain convinced BABA is on track to turn around and an earnings upgrade cycle is one or two quarters away. We are buyer at this price.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (16-May-2024): Impact of US tariff hike on China’s clean energy.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • US tariff hike on Chinese electric vehicles, solar cells, and semiconductors could raise costs for clean energy industry in China, affecting competitiveness and growth.
  • AT&S to sell medtech PCB factory in South Korea, indicating potential changes in the global supply chain.
  • AI rush leading to staffing shortages at companies like Amazon and Google, while India sees surge in AI spending by 2027.

Cigniti Technologies – A Special Situation Bet

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • The Cigniti-Coforge acquisition presents a unique investment opportunity in the IT services sector, with potential for significant returns.
  • Coforge plans to acquire a 54% stake in Cigniti Technologies, expanding its presence in digital assurance and AI services.
  • The deal is expected to be completed by Q2 of FY25, with an open offer price potentially higher than the current market value of Cigniti shares.

What’s Wrong with UPL?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • UPL Ltd (UPLL IN)‘s Q4 FY23 results show a significant improvement in margins to 13% after a drastic fall to 1% in December 2023, despite a 15% YoY revenue decline.
  • Revenue drops were driven by lower prices and high-cost inventory liquidation, yet margin recovery signals operational improvements and potential future stability.
  • Planning to reduce the debt by raising capital via right issue as well as IPO of Advanta.

Vipshop: Net Cash at 40% of Market Cap, Now Paying Dividends and Buying Back Shares

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The slowdown in Chinese retail sales of apparel seems to have been factored into Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US) 1Q 2024 revenue growth expectations whilst bottom-line is supported by margin expansion.
  • With net cash at ~40% of its market cap, the share price should be supported by the ongoing share repurchase program and its inaugural annual dividend policy.
  • Its 6.6x NTM PE ratio (~4x ex-cash) seems extremely attractive for a highly cash-generative business set to (conservatively) grow earnings at high-single-digits whilst buying back shares and paying dividends.

Recruit: As We Said… Weakening Earnings

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported 4Q and full-year FY03/2024 results today. Earnings beat own guidance as well as consensus estimates.
  • Weakening labour markets have negatively impacted all business segments and new pricing model for Indeed has not really been successful.
  • Recruit expects a recovery in 2HFY03/2025, but at the rate at which job openings are going down, we remain cautious.

Silergy (6415.TT): Rebounding from the Bottom in 1Q24, It Will Witness Normal Orders Since 2Q24.

By Patrick Liao

  • Inventory levels were at 90 days by the end of 1Q24, returning to a normal level.   
  • It is expected to see consecutive QoQ growth throughout 2024, with normal orders observed since 2Q24. 
  • Although Chinese mature technology is advancing, current analog capacity still falls short of local demand in China.

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Daily Brief Indonesia: Pakuwon Jati and more

By | Daily Briefs, Indonesia

In today’s briefing:

  • Morning Views Asia: Indofood CBP Sukses, Pakuwon Jati, Rakuten


Morning Views Asia: Indofood CBP Sukses, Pakuwon Jati, Rakuten

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Daily Brief India: Cigniti Technologies, UPL Ltd, Nexus Select Trust, Add-Shop E-Retail, HCL Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, India

In today’s briefing:

  • Cigniti Technologies – A Special Situation Bet
  • What’s Wrong with UPL?
  • Nexus Select Trust IPO Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Stake Comes Free. Will Likely Be a Coordinated Exit
  • How an Indian SME Used Circular Transaction Tactics to Inflate Financial Performance?
  • UPL Limited – Earnings Flash – FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • HCL Technologies: Negative Technical Analysis Signals


Cigniti Technologies – A Special Situation Bet

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • The Cigniti-Coforge acquisition presents a unique investment opportunity in the IT services sector, with potential for significant returns.
  • Coforge plans to acquire a 54% stake in Cigniti Technologies, expanding its presence in digital assurance and AI services.
  • The deal is expected to be completed by Q2 of FY25, with an open offer price potentially higher than the current market value of Cigniti shares.

What’s Wrong with UPL?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • UPL Ltd (UPLL IN)‘s Q4 FY23 results show a significant improvement in margins to 13% after a drastic fall to 1% in December 2023, despite a 15% YoY revenue decline.
  • Revenue drops were driven by lower prices and high-cost inventory liquidation, yet margin recovery signals operational improvements and potential future stability.
  • Planning to reduce the debt by raising capital via right issue as well as IPO of Advanta.

Nexus Select Trust IPO Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Stake Comes Free. Will Likely Be a Coordinated Exit

By Sumeet Singh

  • Nexus Select Trust (NST IN) raised around US$391m in its India IPO in May 2023.
  • NST is a REIT with a portfolio of 17 Grade A urban consumption centers. Its portfolio covers retail malls, office assets, hospitality assets and a renewable power plant. 
  • In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.

How an Indian SME Used Circular Transaction Tactics to Inflate Financial Performance?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • SEBI observed White Organics and Add Shop Retail used circular transaction method to inflate financial performance of respective companies
  • Promoter sell their holdings on the back of this inflated financial performance
  • The forensic analysis delves into the modus operandi of these frauds

UPL Limited – Earnings Flash – FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

UPL Limited’s Q4/23-24 results appear to be better than in the past three quarters, with lower declines registered for revenues and EBITDA. That said, we note that this was against a low comparison base, with Q4/22-23 marking the beginning of the downturn. The company has been severely affected by post-patent competition and cheap supply from China, with these not likely to improve much in the near term. The financial risk profile deteriorated significantly, and is now not consistent with the Ba1/BB/BB+ rating. While liquidity appears to be adequate, we expect it to weaken during the year as the company takes on working-capital debt. We highlight that while leverage and the liquidity profile tend to be better at financial year-end, they typically deteriorate significantly during the year. However, the USD 500 mn right issuance should shore up the balance sheet significantly.


HCL Technologies: Negative Technical Analysis Signals

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • Following HCL Technologies (HCLT IN)‘s fiscal 4Q2024 earning report last month, we have witnessed an acceleration in near-term earnings estimates downgrades.
  • Based on near-term momentum indicators, it seems that we are only at the beginning stage of a prolonged period of underperformance.
  • HCL Technologies currently trades roughly one standard deviation above its rolling 5-year historic average PE ratio.

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Daily Brief Macro: US CPI Review – Everything is soft in April and more

By | Daily Briefs, Macro

In today’s briefing:

  • US CPI Review – Everything is soft in April
  • Positioning Watch – How are Macro Hedge Funds positioned?
  • CX Daily: China’s Weaker Insurers Skip Early Bond Redemptions Amid Growing Financial Stress
  • China Takes It up Another Notch-Property Proposals Change the Game
  • EA GDP Rebounds Without Productivity
  • China Watch: No one has noticed that China is exporting INFLATION again..
  • US CPI Inflation 3.36% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Apr-24


US CPI Review – Everything is soft in April

By Andreas Steno

  • Main Takeaways: Core inflation is still way too hot, but this report speaks well to the crowd hoping for rate cuts.
  • Food and Shelter are the two dovish surprises… Both are re-accelerating in live data which will likely come into effect laterApril was super soft in real-time activity data and there isn’t much to suggest that it will continue in May, where data is on the rise again… But for now, this feeds the FCI loop in a positive sense, which will allow risk assets to ride the dovish CPI wave for now.
  • US Headline CPI rose 0.31% on the month, whilst core inflation increased by 0.29%, with consensus at 0.4% and 0.3%.

Positioning Watch – How are Macro Hedge Funds positioned?

By Andreas Steno

  • Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly Positioning Watch – insights into how market participants are positioned.
  • Markets are waiting patiently for the US CPI report today before placing their bets it seems, with little to no action seen yesterday and in European opening hours yesterday.
  • As elaborated upon in our “Week At a Glance” on Monday, we see hawkish surprises to both headline and core inflation , which will not be good news for markets, who have seemingly returned to their hopes of rate cut(s) this year.

CX Daily: China’s Weaker Insurers Skip Early Bond Redemptions Amid Growing Financial Stress

By Caixin Global

  • Insurers / In Depth: China’s weaker insurers skip early bond redemptions amid growing financial stress
  • China-Russia /: China invites Putin for state visit
  • Justice /China: seeks to eliminate regulations that hurt business environment

China Takes It up Another Notch-Property Proposals Change the Game

By Rikki Malik

  • China is following the Fed’s playbook of keeping market momentum going with good news and actions
  • The HK dividend scheme is a prime example of that
  • The latest proposal for unsold properties will remove a major barrier to a bottom in the property market.

EA GDP Rebounds Without Productivity

By Phil Rush

  • Eurostat’s second estimate confirmed the EA’s 0.3% q-o-q rebound out of technical recession. That fully recovers the H2 fall, although it was partial for Germany.
  • Employment growth matched GDP in Q1, extending the persistently poor productivity performance. Eastern Europe’s structural catch-up is a relatively small bright spot.
  • Jobs-intensive growth is keeping unemployment at its lows even as it rises elsewhere. EA potential looks relatively impaired rather than facing tighter monetary conditions.

China Watch: No one has noticed that China is exporting INFLATION again..

By Andreas Steno

  • Welcome to our weekly EM editorial where we shed light on the most important developments in the EM space in the context of the impulses from the USD markets.
  • Things are heating up in the global macro space as we are standing at crossroads.
  • Is the macro momentum finally rolling over globally (including in the US) or are we amidst a potential rebound from China that wreaks havoc with the current increasingly dovish Western consensus?

US CPI Inflation 3.36% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Apr-24

By Heteronomics AI

  • US CPI inflation in April 2024 slowed to 3.36% year-on-year, slightly lower than the consensus estimate.
  • The Core CPI rate in April 2024 matched expectations by slowing to 3.6% year-on-year.
  • Despite the improvement, the Core CPI rate still indicates excessively high underlying pressures.
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Daily Brief China: Meituan, Alibaba Group Holding , BYD Electronics, Perfect Medical Health, Vipshop Holdings, Yichang HEC Changjiang Pharma, Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie, Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd and more

By | China, Daily Briefs

In today’s briefing:

  • Meituan (3690 HK): Out of the Woods and Light a Fire
  • Alibaba: Our Take on 4QFY24
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June
  • Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows
  • Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – May 2024
  • Alibaba (BABA US): Taobao/Tmall Is Back
  • Vipshop: Net Cash at 40% of Market Cap, Now Paying Dividends and Buying Back Shares
  • HEC CJ Pharma (1558.HK)’s Merger Deal with Sunshine Lake Pharma – Almost No Investment Value
  • Leapmotor (9863 HK): Global Aspirations in JV with Stellantis – An Opportunity to Leapfrog?
  • Lalatech Holdings Limited Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Continues to Improve, Valuation Gap Narrowing


Meituan (3690 HK): Out of the Woods and Light a Fire

By Eric Wen

  • We notice a pickup in consumer acceptance of instrashopping, as result of COVID-cultivated behavior. We notice similar business model worked outside of China (Coupang) for densely populated urban upper-middle-class customers;
  • Meituan’s launch of membership is a wise step towards strengthening user stickiness and emphasizing transaction soundness over impulsive buying. Meituan’s portfolio in food, dining, hotel & travel offer unparalleled value;
  • We see Meituan’s success in Hong Kong honed a replicable business model targeting single and low priced segment. Consolation on a global scale now seems a possibility.

Alibaba: Our Take on 4QFY24

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)‘s FQ4 announcement portrays a resilient comeback to growth, suggesting the past four years’ challenges barely impacted its dominance in Chinese e-commerce.
  • However, a closer look beyond the surface of Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)‘s FQ4 results announcement reveals that little has actually changed in recent months.
  • Taobao and Tmall face challenges in a tough, stagnant market; AIDC’s growth largely covers for other Alibaba units’ failings, while AliExpress’s expansion cuts into margins.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June

By Brian Freitas

  • Post market close tomorrow, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 7 June.
  • There were no constituent changes to the index in March. We highlight ten profitable and eligible stocks that could be added to the index in June.
  • Changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) could lead to inclusions for the Information Technology industry while there could also be inclusions for the underweighted Healthcare industry.

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • Along with its fiscal 2024 results, Alibaba (9988 HK) announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.
  • If the conversion is completed by the end of August, Alibaba (9988 HK) could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.
  • We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) capped at 8% of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices.

Shortlist Of High Conviction Ideas: Income, Value, and Margin of Safety – May 2024

By Sameer Taneja


Alibaba (BABA US): Taobao/Tmall Is Back

By Eric Chen

  • Alibaba reported in-line revenue but disappointed adjusted net income for 4QFY24.
  • Yet a closer look shows strong core Taobao/Tmall performance was offset by higher-than-expected losses incurred by peripheral businesses.
  • We remain convinced BABA is on track to turn around and an earnings upgrade cycle is one or two quarters away. We are buyer at this price.

Vipshop: Net Cash at 40% of Market Cap, Now Paying Dividends and Buying Back Shares

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • The slowdown in Chinese retail sales of apparel seems to have been factored into Vipshop Holdings (VIPS US) 1Q 2024 revenue growth expectations whilst bottom-line is supported by margin expansion.
  • With net cash at ~40% of its market cap, the share price should be supported by the ongoing share repurchase program and its inaugural annual dividend policy.
  • Its 6.6x NTM PE ratio (~4x ex-cash) seems extremely attractive for a highly cash-generative business set to (conservatively) grow earnings at high-single-digits whilst buying back shares and paying dividends.

HEC CJ Pharma (1558.HK)’s Merger Deal with Sunshine Lake Pharma – Almost No Investment Value

By Xinyao (Criss) Wang

  • Sunshine Lake Pharma plans to privatize HEC CJ Pharma in the form of merger by absorption with conditions. After privatization, CJ Pharma will be delisted from the Stock Exchange.
  • Sunshine Lake Pharma’s pipeline has been “disconnected” from the level of domestic biotech in recent years, and is completely lagging behind the average speed of innovative drug development in China.
  • Due to “outdated” pipeline and lack of prospects, even if CJ Pharma is merged into Sunshine Lake Pharma, valuation performance of the new entity would be disappointing in the future.

Leapmotor (9863 HK): Global Aspirations in JV with Stellantis – An Opportunity to Leapfrog?

By Devi Subhakesan

  • Stellantis, the European automotive group, unveiled plans to distribute EVs made by Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology (9863 HK) across Europe, India, Asia Pacific, MEA, and South America via a 51/49 JV.
  • This could help  Leapmotor (9863 HK) leapfrog regulatory hurdles and hasten access to EV markets globally by leveraging Stellantis NV (STLA IM) ‘s distribution network and manufacturing facilities.
  • Leapmotor could likely qualify and stand to benefit from Indian Government’s recently announced policy initiatives for budget EVs.

Lalatech Holdings Limited Pre-IPO – Refiling Updates – Continues to Improve, Valuation Gap Narrowing

By Sumeet Singh

  • Lalatech Holdings is looking to raise about US$1bn in its upcoming HK IPO.
  • Lalatech operates via a marketplace model serving merchants and carriers. Its platform facilitates closed-loop transactions from online shipping order booking to intelligent order matching, and automated dispatching to after-sale services.
  • We have looked at the company’s past performance in our earlier notes. In this note we will talk about the updates from its refiling.

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Daily Brief Japan: Japan Post Holdings, S Line Co Ltd, Nihon Kohden, Recruit Holdings, TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX, yutori , Pan Pacific International Holdings, Pakuwon Jati and more

By | Daily Briefs, Japan

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Post Holdings (6178) – Bigger Better Bullish Buyback With Caveats
  • S Line (9078 JP) TOB/MBO at 0.57x Book – Wrong Price by Far but Only AGGRESSIVE Activism Blocks It
  • Nihon Kohden (6849 JP): ¥10B Buyback Plan And Stock Split; Japan and US to Drive Business Growth
  • Recruit: As We Said… Weakening Earnings
  • What Happens to the Effectiveness of TSE Requests when They Become Effort Obligations?
  • Yutori Moves into Cosmetics as Strong Growth Continues
  • PPI Succeeds with Uny Using Donki Know-How
  • Morning Views Asia: Indofood CBP Sukses, Pakuwon Jati, Rakuten


Japan Post Holdings (6178) – Bigger Better Bullish Buyback With Caveats

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) announced results (and Mar25 guidance) as did its subsidiaries Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) and Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)
  • There are a number of interesting things in all the announcements/presentations but the most interesting one for JPH holders is a big buyback. Another one.
  • The company has announced a ¥350bn buyback. It is larger than last year’s (¥300bn) buyback and has another important difference.

S Line (9078 JP) TOB/MBO at 0.57x Book – Wrong Price by Far but Only AGGRESSIVE Activism Blocks It

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, S Line Co Ltd (9078 JP) announced its CEO would conduct a Tender Offer MBO to buy out the ¥50bn-target revenue logistics company, at 0.6x book. 
  • The company announced results with revenues up. But withdrew its existing MTMP which said revenues would be up 10% from here to March 2025 and ROE would be higher.
  • This is the wrong price. It should engender some upset, but active investors own almost nothing it seems. 

Nihon Kohden (6849 JP): ¥10B Buyback Plan And Stock Split; Japan and US to Drive Business Growth

By Tina Banerjee

  • In FY25, Nihon Kohden (6849 JP) guided for domestic revenue of ¥147B, up 3% YoY. The demand for patient monitors and treatment equipment is expected to remain steady.
  • Nihon Kohden expects North America business to report a revenue CAGR of 11% (fastest among all the other regions) during FY24–27, outpacing mid-single-digit growth of the market.
  • The company announced ¥10B buyback plan to repurchase up to 6M shares, representing 3.57% of total number of issued shares from August 5, 2024, to March 31, 2025.

Recruit: As We Said… Weakening Earnings

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported 4Q and full-year FY03/2024 results today. Earnings beat own guidance as well as consensus estimates.
  • Weakening labour markets have negatively impacted all business segments and new pricing model for Indeed has not really been successful.
  • Recruit expects a recovery in 2HFY03/2025, but at the rate at which job openings are going down, we remain cautious.

What Happens to the Effectiveness of TSE Requests when They Become Effort Obligations?

By Aki Matsumoto

  • Code of Corporate Conduct lacks explanation of the role to be played by a listed company and the background. Consequently, there’re cases where the same companies have repeatedly committed misconduct.
  • For companies that are good at pretending that they are trying, without any substance to their corporate governance, making the provisions of Corporate Governance Code mandatory effort won’t be effective.
  • TSE’s request seems to be an effort obligation. It is good that the substance of the company’s improvement plan, which only made an effort to improve, will be improved.

Yutori Moves into Cosmetics as Strong Growth Continues

By Michael Causton

  • Yutori , the Zozo-controlled online fashion mall, is diversifying into cosmetics and other items, with wholesale distribution to chain stores as well as sales through its own mall.
  • The fledgling online mall continues to grow fast, with sales up 74% so far this year.
  • It is in essence Zozo 20 years ago given its focus on the teen and youth market but with the difference in that it has Zozo’s experience and advice.

PPI Succeeds with Uny Using Donki Know-How

By Michael Causton

  • There were many sceptics when Don Quijote bought Uny given that no other GMS retailer was performing well.
  • Today, Uny is finding new relevance thanks to the adoption of merchandising and marketing from Don Quijote.
  • But the real secret ingredient is, as in Donki stores, giving staff the freedom and responsibility they always wanted – including profitability of each store.

Morning Views Asia: Indofood CBP Sukses, Pakuwon Jati, Rakuten

By Leonard Law, CFA

Lucror Analytics Morning Views comprise our fundamental credit analysis, opinions and trade recommendations on high yield issuers in the region, based on key company-specific developments in the past 24 hours. Our Morning Views include a section with a brief market commentary, key market indicators and a macroeconomic and corporate event calendar.


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Most Read: Square Enix Holdings, Japan Post Holdings, Modec Inc, BYD Electronics, Alibaba Group Holding , Malaysia Airports Holdings, S Line Co Ltd, Lock&Lock and more

By | Daily Briefs, Most Read

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan – Another Big Round of Passive Selling
  • YUUUGE Modec (6269) Offering To Stay Listed in TSE Prime – Effectively a Re-IPO
  • Japan Post Holdings (6178) – Bigger Better Bullish Buyback With Caveats
  • Modec Placement – Deal Seems a Little Opportunistic but Not Particularly Expensive
  • Alibaba: Our Take on 4QFY24
  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June
  • Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows
  • Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Pre-Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM11.00
  • S Line (9078 JP) TOB/MBO at 0.57x Book – Wrong Price by Far but Only AGGRESSIVE Activism Blocks It
  • Lock & Lock: Second Tender Offer by Affinity Equity Partners


Japan – Another Big Round of Passive Selling

By Brian Freitas

  • There are 15 stocks in Japan that will be sold by passive trackers at the close on 31 May.
  • Short interest has been increasing in these stocks over the last few months and there will be covering on implementation date.
  • Cumulative excess volume on all stocks has risen in the last couple of months though the pace of the increase has varied.

YUUUGE Modec (6269) Offering To Stay Listed in TSE Prime – Effectively a Re-IPO

By Travis Lundy

  • In March, Modec Inc (6269 JP) announced the TSE had said Modec at 29.3% (end-Dec-23) was below the required 35% tradable shares level required for continued listing on TSE Prime. 
  • It announced a “Basic Plan” to comply with the criteria which involved convincing one of the three major corporate holders to sell some. They needed to sell about 6%.
  • Mitsui E&S has announced it will sell 32%, and 37% including greenshoe. This is overdoing it in a huge way. Mitsui E&S is getting out. This is a re-IPO.

Japan Post Holdings (6178) – Bigger Better Bullish Buyback With Caveats

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) announced results (and Mar25 guidance) as did its subsidiaries Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) and Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)
  • There are a number of interesting things in all the announcements/presentations but the most interesting one for JPH holders is a big buyback. Another one.
  • The company has announced a ¥350bn buyback. It is larger than last year’s (¥300bn) buyback and has another important difference.

Modec Placement – Deal Seems a Little Opportunistic but Not Particularly Expensive

By Ethan Aw

  • Mitsui E&S Holdings (7003 JP) is looking to raise approximately US$451m through a secondary follow-on offering, via selling approximately 21.9m shares (32% of TSO) of Modec Inc (6269 JP)’s stock. 
  • The deal is a large one to digest at 81 days of three month ADV. 
  • In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.

Alibaba: Our Take on 4QFY24

By Oshadhi Kumarasiri

  • Alibaba Group Holding (BABA US)‘s FQ4 announcement portrays a resilient comeback to growth, suggesting the past four years’ challenges barely impacted its dominance in Chinese e-commerce.
  • However, a closer look beyond the surface of Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)‘s FQ4 results announcement reveals that little has actually changed in recent months.
  • Taobao and Tmall face challenges in a tough, stagnant market; AIDC’s growth largely covers for other Alibaba units’ failings, while AliExpress’s expansion cuts into margins.

Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June

By Brian Freitas

  • Post market close tomorrow, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 7 June.
  • There were no constituent changes to the index in March. We highlight ten profitable and eligible stocks that could be added to the index in June.
  • Changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) could lead to inclusions for the Information Technology industry while there could also be inclusions for the underweighted Healthcare industry.

Alibaba (9988 HK): Dual Primary Listing & Potential Southbound Flows

By Brian Freitas

  • Along with its fiscal 2024 results, Alibaba (9988 HK) announced that they were preparing for their primary listing in Hong Kong and the conversion was expected to complete by August.
  • If the conversion is completed by the end of August, Alibaba (9988 HK) could be added to Southbound Stock Connect in September and that could bring in significant flows.
  • We do not forecast any passive inflows due to the change with Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) capped at 8% of the HSI, HSCEI and HSTECH indices.

Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Pre-Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM11.00

By Arun George

  • Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)’s pre-conditional voluntary conditional offer from a four-member consortium is RM11.00, a 5.8% premium to the last close. 
  • Despite the offer representing an all-time high, the 90% minimum acceptance condition could be challenging due to the low takeover premium and discount to historical and peer multiples. 
  • The consortium can overcome issues satisfying the minimum acceptance condition by bumping the offer or lowering the acceptance condition. 

S Line (9078 JP) TOB/MBO at 0.57x Book – Wrong Price by Far but Only AGGRESSIVE Activism Blocks It

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, S Line Co Ltd (9078 JP) announced its CEO would conduct a Tender Offer MBO to buy out the ¥50bn-target revenue logistics company, at 0.6x book. 
  • The company announced results with revenues up. But withdrew its existing MTMP which said revenues would be up 10% from here to March 2025 and ROE would be higher.
  • This is the wrong price. It should engender some upset, but active investors own almost nothing it seems. 

Lock & Lock: Second Tender Offer by Affinity Equity Partners

By Douglas Kim

  • On 15 May, it was reported in the local media that Affinity Equity Partners (AEP) is expected to launch a second tender offer for Lock & Lock (115390 KS).
  • The tender offer price in this second tender offer is 8,750 won (same as the first tender offer). The second tender offer will last from 16 May to 5 June.
  • In the first tender offer, only about half of the target was reached. There was a strong backlash from investors due to low tender offer price.

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Daily Brief Industrials: Japan Post Holdings, Malaysia Airports Holdings, S Line Co Ltd, Recruit Holdings, C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Expion360 , CoreCivic , Parker Hannifin and more

By | Daily Briefs, Industrials

In today’s briefing:

  • Japan Post Holdings (6178) – Bigger Better Bullish Buyback With Caveats
  • Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Pre-Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM11.00
  • S Line (9078 JP) TOB/MBO at 0.57x Book – Wrong Price by Far but Only AGGRESSIVE Activism Blocks It
  • Recruit: As We Said… Weakening Earnings
  • C.H. Robinson Worldwide: Will Its Push Towards Innovative
  • XPON: The core battery business still faces a difficult
  • CXW: 1Q24 Beat Highlights Operating Leverage, Improving Occupancies
  • Parker-Hannifin Corporation: Evolution of Win Strategy 3.0 and Margin Expansion! – Major Drivers


Japan Post Holdings (6178) – Bigger Better Bullish Buyback With Caveats

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) announced results (and Mar25 guidance) as did its subsidiaries Japan Post Insurance (7181 JP) and Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)
  • There are a number of interesting things in all the announcements/presentations but the most interesting one for JPH holders is a big buyback. Another one.
  • The company has announced a ¥350bn buyback. It is larger than last year’s (¥300bn) buyback and has another important difference.

Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK): Pre-Conditional Voluntary Offer at RM11.00

By Arun George

  • Malaysia Airports Holdings (MAHB MK)’s pre-conditional voluntary conditional offer from a four-member consortium is RM11.00, a 5.8% premium to the last close. 
  • Despite the offer representing an all-time high, the 90% minimum acceptance condition could be challenging due to the low takeover premium and discount to historical and peer multiples. 
  • The consortium can overcome issues satisfying the minimum acceptance condition by bumping the offer or lowering the acceptance condition. 

S Line (9078 JP) TOB/MBO at 0.57x Book – Wrong Price by Far but Only AGGRESSIVE Activism Blocks It

By Travis Lundy

  • Today, S Line Co Ltd (9078 JP) announced its CEO would conduct a Tender Offer MBO to buy out the ¥50bn-target revenue logistics company, at 0.6x book. 
  • The company announced results with revenues up. But withdrew its existing MTMP which said revenues would be up 10% from here to March 2025 and ROE would be higher.
  • This is the wrong price. It should engender some upset, but active investors own almost nothing it seems. 

Recruit: As We Said… Weakening Earnings

By Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

  • Recruit Holdings (6098 JP) reported 4Q and full-year FY03/2024 results today. Earnings beat own guidance as well as consensus estimates.
  • Weakening labour markets have negatively impacted all business segments and new pricing model for Indeed has not really been successful.
  • Recruit expects a recovery in 2HFY03/2025, but at the rate at which job openings are going down, we remain cautious.

C.H. Robinson Worldwide: Will Its Push Towards Innovative

By Baptista Research

  • In the first quarter of 2024, C.H. Robinson implemented a new operating model based on lean methodology, aiming to improve execution, decision-making, and accountability across the business.
  • This shift resulted in better pricing and capacity procurement efforts, thus improving optimization of volume and adjusted gross profit per truckload.
  • The company saw improved operational discipline and decision-making based on data, fostering a healthier work culture with a focus on continuous improvement.

XPON: The core battery business still faces a difficult

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Expion360 continues to expand its product lineup beyond the core RV and marine battery markets as it has officially entered the home energy storage market and expanded its offerings for the small RV market.
  • New RV shipments have shown signs of life in the first quarter but we will have to the mix of RV shipments appears to have shifted to lower end towable units.
  • The company released first-quarter results which were roughly in line with our lowered expectations.

CXW: 1Q24 Beat Highlights Operating Leverage, Improving Occupancies

By Zacks Small Cap Research

  • Management has indicated that the pipeline for new leases, renewals is robust as ICE & multiple government entities seek capacity.
  • Company is engaged in multiple discussions.
  • In addition, the recent debt issuance extended maturities & CXW was able to maintain the cost of capital despite the uncertain rate, economic outlook.

Parker-Hannifin Corporation: Evolution of Win Strategy 3.0 and Margin Expansion! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Parker-Hannifin Corporation had a strong third-quarter performance in its Fiscal Year 2024, recording record sales of $5.1 billion and a 150 basis point improvement in its margins on the prior year.
  • The CFO, Todd Leombruno, attributed the record levels of sales, segment operating income, net income, and earnings per share to the impressive operating performance of the company.
  • Highlights of the quarter included the aerospace segment which drove significant growth and a record operating margin of 26.7%.

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Daily Brief Energy/Materials: UPL Ltd, SK IE Technology , Marathon Petroleum, EcoPro Materials, Devon Energy, Albemarle Corp, Cf Industries Holdings, Mosaic Co/The, Panoro Energy ASA and more

By | Daily Briefs, Energy & Materials Sector

In today’s briefing:

  • What’s Wrong with UPL?
  • SK Group’s Restructuring Plans for SK IET and an Earnings Shock for SK IET in 1Q 2024
  • Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC): Initiation Of Coverage – Strategic Synergies From M&A & Future Outlook! – Major Drivers
  • UPL Limited – Earnings Flash – FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics
  • Ecopro Materials Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lock-Up Expiry, Can Expect Selling Pressure
  • Devon Energy Corporation: Leveraging Technology and Methodologies to Improve Extraction Efficiency! – Major Drivers
  • Albemarle Corporation: A Tale Of Expansion of New Facilities and Margin Recovery! – Major Drivers
  • CF Industries: Impact of Clean Ammonia Market and Demand! – Major Drivers
  • The Mosaic Company: Significant Structural Changes Prompting Tightness in Global Phosphate and Potash Markets! – Major Drivers
  • Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Discovery in Gabon. Reiterating Production Guidance


What’s Wrong with UPL?

By Nimish Maheshwari

  • UPL Ltd (UPLL IN)‘s Q4 FY23 results show a significant improvement in margins to 13% after a drastic fall to 1% in December 2023, despite a 15% YoY revenue decline.
  • Revenue drops were driven by lower prices and high-cost inventory liquidation, yet margin recovery signals operational improvements and potential future stability.
  • Planning to reduce the debt by raising capital via right issue as well as IPO of Advanta.

SK Group’s Restructuring Plans for SK IET and an Earnings Shock for SK IET in 1Q 2024

By Douglas Kim

  • According to Maekyung Business Daily, SK Innovation maybe planning to sell its controlling interest in SK IE Technology (SK IET) which produces separators for rechargeable batteries.
  • SK On is experiencing financial difficulties due to the sluggish demand for EVs. SK Innovation’s 61.2% stake in SK IET is worth 2.5 trillion won. 
  • SK IE Technology had an earnings shock in 1Q 2024. It had sales of 46.2 billion won (67.8% lower than consensus) and operating loss of 67.4 billion won 1Q 2024.

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC): Initiation Of Coverage – Strategic Synergies From M&A & Future Outlook! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) exhibits strong financial health and is investing in growth.
  • MPC added two new independent directors to its board demonstrating positive signs of expansion and diversification.
  • Additionally, the company maintains an optimistic view of the macro refining environment, with a forecasted increase in oil demand driven predominantly by the growing need for transportation fuels.

UPL Limited – Earnings Flash – FY 2023-24 Results – Lucror Analytics

By Trung Nguyen

UPL Limited’s Q4/23-24 results appear to be better than in the past three quarters, with lower declines registered for revenues and EBITDA. That said, we note that this was against a low comparison base, with Q4/22-23 marking the beginning of the downturn. The company has been severely affected by post-patent competition and cheap supply from China, with these not likely to improve much in the near term. The financial risk profile deteriorated significantly, and is now not consistent with the Ba1/BB/BB+ rating. While liquidity appears to be adequate, we expect it to weaken during the year as the company takes on working-capital debt. We highlight that while leverage and the liquidity profile tend to be better at financial year-end, they typically deteriorate significantly during the year. However, the USD 500 mn right issuance should shore up the balance sheet significantly.


Ecopro Materials Lockup Expiry – US$1.5bn Lock-Up Expiry, Can Expect Selling Pressure

By Ethan Aw

  • EcoPro Materials (450080 KS) raised around US$320m in its Korean IPO, after pricing the deal at KRW36,200/share. Its six-month IPO lockup will expire on 17th May 2024.
  • Ecopro Materials (EPM) manufactures and sells high-nickel precursors, one of the key materials for high-nickel cathode materials for secondary (rechargeable) batteries.
  • In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.

Devon Energy Corporation: Leveraging Technology and Methodologies to Improve Extraction Efficiency! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Devon Energy’s Q1 2024 results exceeded operational and financial targets, setting a strong foundation for continued progress throughout the year.
  • The company delivered results that surpassed its targets by a significant margin, including a production output 4% higher than expected, averaging 664,000 BOE per day.
  • This output increase was driven by three principal factors: excellent well productivity, improved cycle times across drilling and completion operations, and easing infrastructure constraints across Devon’s Delaware Basin assets.

Albemarle Corporation: A Tale Of Expansion of New Facilities and Margin Recovery! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Albemarle Corporation’s first quarter earnings of 2024 revealed a net sales of $1.4 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $291 million.
  • Despite the decline of 47% year-over-year, which was caused largely by reduced prices, the firm experienced volumetric growth led by the energy storage segment.
  • The firm also confirmed its ability to navigate the market dynamism and confirmed delivery of over $9 million in productivity and restructuring cost savings, as part of efforts geared towards aligning costs with the current market situation.

CF Industries: Impact of Clean Ammonia Market and Demand! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The first quarter of 2024 was marked by operational disruptions and lower production for CF Industries Holdings Inc., a leading global manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products.
  • Unplanned downtime and plant outages caused by severe cold in January resulted in a significant loss of production, which affected the company’s earnings.
  • The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $460 million for the quarter.

The Mosaic Company: Significant Structural Changes Prompting Tightness in Global Phosphate and Potash Markets! – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • The Mosaic Company’s first quarter 2024 earnings results showed a positive revenue growth and promising expansion initiatives.
  • The company generated adjusted EBITDA of $576 million on revenues of $2.7 billion.
  • However, Mosaic’s financial performance also included some challenges which the executive team plans to address moving forward.

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Discovery in Gabon. Reiterating Production Guidance

By Auctus Advisors

  • The Hibiscus South exploration well on the Dussafu permit has encountered 25 m of pay in an overall hydrocarbon column of 35 m in the Gamba formation.
  • This discovery could add ~5-6 mmbbl gross recoverable reserves (~1 mmbbl net to Panoro).
  • The Hibiscus South structure is a separate accumulation with a deeper oil-water contact than the nearby Hibiscus Field.

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Daily Brief TMT/Internet: BYD Electronics, Samsung Electronics, Cigniti Technologies, Silergy Corp, Vitec Software Group , Fortinet Inc, Motorola Solutions, PTC Inc, Cdw Corp/De, HCL Technologies and more

By | Daily Briefs, TMT/Internet

In today’s briefing:

  • Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June
  • Tech Supply Chain Tracker (16-May-2024): Impact of US tariff hike on China’s clean energy.
  • Cigniti Technologies – A Special Situation Bet
  • Silergy (6415.TT): Rebounding from the Bottom in 1Q24, It Will Witness Normal Orders Since 2Q24.
  • Vitec Software Group (VITB SS ) – Wednesday, Feb 14, 2024
  • Fortinet Inc.: How Is Their Shift Towards SASE & SecOps Solutions Shaping Up? – Major Drivers
  • Motorola Solutions Inc.: What Is The Implication of Cloud Technology Adoption? – Major Drivers
  • PTC Inc.: What Is Their Portfolio Strategy and Cross-Selling Approach? – Major Drivers
  • CDW Corporation: How Is The Assessment and Experimentation Stage of AI Progressing? – Major Drivers
  • HCL Technologies: Negative Technical Analysis Signals


Hang Seng Index (HSI) Rebalance Preview: Inclusion Candidates for June

By Brian Freitas

  • Post market close tomorrow, Hang Seng Indexes will announce the changes for the Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) that will be implemented at the close on 7 June.
  • There were no constituent changes to the index in March. We highlight ten profitable and eligible stocks that could be added to the index in June.
  • Changes to the Hang Seng Industry Classification System (HSICS) could lead to inclusions for the Information Technology industry while there could also be inclusions for the underweighted Healthcare industry.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (16-May-2024): Impact of US tariff hike on China’s clean energy.

By Tech Supply Chain Tracker

  • US tariff hike on Chinese electric vehicles, solar cells, and semiconductors could raise costs for clean energy industry in China, affecting competitiveness and growth.
  • AT&S to sell medtech PCB factory in South Korea, indicating potential changes in the global supply chain.
  • AI rush leading to staffing shortages at companies like Amazon and Google, while India sees surge in AI spending by 2027.

Cigniti Technologies – A Special Situation Bet

By Sudarshan Bhandari

  • The Cigniti-Coforge acquisition presents a unique investment opportunity in the IT services sector, with potential for significant returns.
  • Coforge plans to acquire a 54% stake in Cigniti Technologies, expanding its presence in digital assurance and AI services.
  • The deal is expected to be completed by Q2 of FY25, with an open offer price potentially higher than the current market value of Cigniti shares.

Silergy (6415.TT): Rebounding from the Bottom in 1Q24, It Will Witness Normal Orders Since 2Q24.

By Patrick Liao

  • Inventory levels were at 90 days by the end of 1Q24, returning to a normal level.   
  • It is expected to see consecutive QoQ growth throughout 2024, with normal orders observed since 2Q24. 
  • Although Chinese mature technology is advancing, current analog capacity still falls short of local demand in China.

Vitec Software Group (VITB SS ) – Wednesday, Feb 14, 2024

By Value Investors Club

  • Vitec Software Group AB is the largest Nordic-based vertical market software company with exceptional growth and outperformance compared to peers
  • Despite being lesser-known, Vitec has significant potential for growth and is expected to become more well-known internationally, attracting more institutional investors
  • Under CEO Olle Backman’s leadership, the company is expected to continue its high organic growth trajectory, offering a promising investment opportunity with a base case target price of ~870 SEK and a potential return of ~55% over the next two years.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.


Fortinet Inc.: How Is Their Shift Towards SASE & SecOps Solutions Shaping Up? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Fortinet, the multinational cybersecurity company, has showcased notable financial results for the first quarter of 2024.
  • They declared an operating margin increase of a first quarter record of 28.5%, and a record cash flow from operations of $830 million.
  • Their adjusted free cash flow margin was also their highest yet at 61%.

Motorola Solutions Inc.: What Is The Implication of Cloud Technology Adoption? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • Motorola Solutions, Inc. showcased robust financial performance in the first quarter of 2024, marked by a 10% revenue growth and a significant 27% increase in its earnings per share.
  • This strong performance was complemented by an expanded operating margin by 220 basis points and a record first quarter operating cash flow of $382 million.
  • The growth was propelled by various segments.

PTC Inc.: What Is Their Portfolio Strategy and Cross-Selling Approach? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • PTC experienced robust results in this quarter, continuing the positive trend evident in their product portfolio’s resonance with customers.
  • Despite changing their mid-term targets, the company has an unequivocal commitment to delivering on its cash flow guidance.
  • This will be achieved by updating their mid-term ARR growth objectives, with constant currency ARR growth targeted to be in the low double digits over the mid-term.

CDW Corporation: How Is The Assessment and Experimentation Stage of AI Progressing? – Major Drivers

By Baptista Research

  • CDW Corporation has reported its Q1 2024 earnings.
  • Despite a challenging market environment, gross profit came in at $1.1 billion, while non-GAAP operating income stood at $404 million.
  • Gross margin for the period was a Q1 record, demonstrating the resilience of CDW’s underlying profitability and strategic integrity.

HCL Technologies: Negative Technical Analysis Signals

By Wium Malan, CFA

  • Following HCL Technologies (HCLT IN)‘s fiscal 4Q2024 earning report last month, we have witnessed an acceleration in near-term earnings estimates downgrades.
  • Based on near-term momentum indicators, it seems that we are only at the beginning stage of a prolonged period of underperformance.
  • HCL Technologies currently trades roughly one standard deviation above its rolling 5-year historic average PE ratio.

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